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Friday, March 27, 2009

Common players on my fantasy teams

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:59pm

With four expert league drafts now completed and most of your drafts to be completed in the coming days, I thought I would drop a quick post with the players who wound up on my teams most frequently. I still have a couple more drafts to go, but by then all of your drafts will have happened.

Please note that there is some definite selection bias on this list as two of the leagues are NL-only while only one is mixed and one is AL-only (this bias is quite obvious in that there is only one AL player on the entire list).

The list is also subject to the various quirks of the league rules and the individual drafts, so having Matt Wieters on here doesn't necessarily mean that I like him more than a Ryan Doumit or Mike Napoli. I didn't think I'd end up drafting him at all, but for whatever reason, he just happened to wind up on my team a couple of times. Take these for what they're worth, but I thought you'd enjoy seeing the list regardless.

The leagues that these results come from are LABR NL (NL-only), FSIC (NL-only), FantasyPros911 (AL-only — reserve draft has yet to be completed), and KFFL (Mixed). Without further ado, here is the list:

Hitters — 3 teams
Raul Ibanez: LABR, FSIC, KFFL

Cody Ross: LABR, FSIC, KFFL

Nyjer Morgan: LABR, FSIC, KFFL


Hitters — 2 teams
Matt Wieters: FP911, KFFL

James Loney: LABR, FSIC

Kelly Johnson: LABR, KFFL

Chris Dickerson: FSIC, KFFL

Kosuke Fukudome: LABR, FSIC


Pitchers — 3 teams
Javier Vazquez: LABR, FSIC, KFFL

Kenshin Kawakami: LABR, FSIC, KFFL


Pitchers — 2 teams
Rich Harden: LABR, KFFL

Derek Lowe: FSIC, KFFL

Jorge de la Rosa: LABR, FSIC

Ross Ohlendorf: LABR, FSIC


Questions on any of these guys? Feel free to drop them in the comments and I'd be happy to answer.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.


Comments

Jacob Rothberg said...

Why have Ben Sheets on a team this year? i understand he was lights out last year, but as far as i can tell his free agent status means he won’t be on a DL so you will have to waste an active roster spot on an injury riddled player while he rehabs to some undefined point in the summer or fall. This seems like drafting freddy garcia last year, no?

Posted 03/27  at  04:47 PM
Derek Carty said...

Haha, good call Jacob.  In LABR there’s a plan in place for Sheets (which I discussed in my Heater column), but in KFFL we’ve conducted the draft via e-mail over the past few weeks.  The Sheets pick was made last night at 2 AM in the last round of the draft.  Obviously I wasn’t thinking clearly that late.  The plan was to simply DL him and then pick up a catcher to replace Wieters for the first couple of months, so I guess the new plan is to drop him and pick up that catcher.  No big deal.  Good catch, though.

Posted 03/27  at  05:06 PM
Tyler Ellis said...

You seem to like Ibanez. I’ve had a trade offer for him (a starting pitcher, Pelfrey or Bedard), and am currently wondering if his production would outpace Torii Hunter’s, my 3rd OF option. I know Hunter will provide more steals, but I have Michael Bourn and Fred Lewis as a backup in case my steals are lacking.

Do you see Ibanez as maintaining last year’s production, or regressing at all? Being more valuable than Hunter in a roto league, at the expense of a pitcher?

Posted 03/27  at  05:41 PM
Derek Carty said...

Tyler,
Depends a little on your situation.  What OF would you need to bench (or drop) if you acquired Ibanez?  Would it be Hunter?  What kind of pitching do you have, aside from Pelfrey and Bedard?  In a vacuum, I like Ibanez better than Hunter, for sure.  If you give me a little more info I’d be able to give you a better answer for your specific situation.

Posted 03/27  at  05:51 PM
Joe Mills said...

Morgan? Was it because he was super cheap?

Posted 03/27  at  06:32 PM
Tyler Ellis said...

Thanks for the response, Derek.

I’d be benching Hunter and dropping one of Fred Lewis of Michael Bourn to pick up a replacement starting pitcher. My three outfielders right now are Magglio Ordonez, Lastings Milledge, and Torii Hunter (plus the previously mentioned subs).

My starting pitching consists of Dan Haren, Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard, Mike Pelfrey, and Jordan Zimmerman. Not the deepest, but not too shabby.

I guess Hunter would just become a 4th OF to sub, or I could trade him away for something else.

Thanks for the answer. At least I know that you like Ibanez better than Hunter, which gives me some idea of value.

Posted 03/27  at  10:19 PM
Bill said...

Great call on Javier Vazquez. I think he will have a great year, as long as he can stay consistent.

Posted 03/28  at  01:32 PM
Bill said...

Great call on Javier Vazquez. I think he will have a great year, as long as he can stay consistent.

Posted 03/28  at  01:32 PM
Isaac said...

Is that you, Jim Morgan?? smile

Posted 03/28  at  06:36 PM
Ryan Beariot said...

Fukudome on 2 teams? what are your expectations for him for this year?

Posted 03/29  at  03:26 PM
Empiricus said...

Really: Rickie Weeks or Kelly Johnson? Projections are very similar (rankings too), but Johnson seems to have (perhaps?) only a slight advantage by not being so erratic. Yet, Weeks may have more upside (newly found patience?). It’s a difficult situation for me to assess given ALL metrics. You seem to prefer Johnson, why?

Posted 03/31  at  03:15 AM
Woody said...

Does anyone else try to avoid owning the same player in different leagues?  My theory is stolen from portfolio theory in that I want to reduce the overall level of risk in my “portfolio” of teams.  By doing this, I ensure that if a player gets injured for the entire season or pulls an “Andruw,” only one team gets damaged. 

The downside, of course, is that if a player overachieves, I get that improvement only once.  I try to offset this by giving myself permission to own a player on more than one team if I’m extremely confident that that player is going to overperform.  Right now, the only player I own on two teams is kevin Slowey, who I think has a chance to be true #1 starter.

Posted 03/31  at  01:09 PM
Mike Ketchen said...

Derek,

I apologize in advance as this is off topic completley but I wanted your feedback. last night my buddy and me completed our second draft of three teams for the NFBC online champ. We had the wheel at pick 12 and planned to go Utley/Beltran and then Gonzo/Ellsury. We tend to try and not stack OF past our first two picks as the depth is there later (IMO). However everything went to hell and we ended up with (what I feel) a stacked OF. Utley went right before us at 11 and Gonzo went at 35.
We ended up with this

Kinsler
Beltran
Upton
Granderson

so my question is this even though are targets were gone corners like Votto/Youk were still there. Given the replacement level in 12 teamer should we still have taken the CR bats or were right in taken what I feel is legit tier 2 OF talent? Sorry for the length of the post but we got one more draft to go and I am trying to iron this out and looking for any and all insight. thanks.

Posted 03/31  at  01:59 PM
ap said...

you clearly like ATL pitching! smile were they a good value… Vazquez should improve already very good numbers by moving to the NL, his first time through the league should be very good… and then there is the obvious pitcher instead of DH change…

How can we obtain help on possible trades? I have got a doozy… in a keeper league where i trade away ryan braun for josh johnson, shields (the starter not reliever) and kemp and a 1st round pick.. essentially the league is 14 team yahoo with 6 keepers 1 being a young gun player who has less than 2 seasons under his belt.. scoring is head to head with 9 hitting stats and 7 pitching stats with k and k/9

Posted 03/31  at  02:01 PM
Wickethewok said...

As a Pirates fan, I laugh at the fact that you have Morgan and Ohlendorf.  Good luck with that… raspberry

Posted 04/01  at  12:55 AM
Derek Carty said...

Joe Mills,
Morgan was selected for two different reasons.  In LABR, it’s a super deep NL-only league, and $5 for a regular with very good speed and the possibility of leading off is a great buy.  In KFFL, we missed out on some of our speed targets and he was bought just in case he breaks out, especially since it was looking like he would lead off at the time (and still looks like this will be the case).

Tyler Ellis,
If you could trade Hunter for a good SP (Vazquez?) then I think it would definitely be worth it.

Posted 04/02  at  11:46 PM
Derek Carty said...

Ryan Beariot,
Notice that both are NL-only leagues.  I have him because I generally think he’s undervalued in NL-only leagues this year.  Give him 480 ABs, plug in a .270-ish BA, 13 HR, 8 SB, and some modest-ish RBI and R numbers and you have a $15+ player in NL-only.

Empiricus,
I’ve drafted both this year, depending on the setup.  In a vacuum, I like Johnson better.  In a shallower league, though, I’ll go Weeks because when you combine him with the good replacement stats in a shallow league he becomes better than Johnson.  Also, in LABR, I got Johnson just a few minutes before Weeks sold for like $7 less.  Had I known, I would have waited.

I think both are undervalued this year, though.  For Johnson, a .285 BA, 15+ HR (with 20 a good possibility), and 12 SB is very good for a 2B, especially if he bats #2 full-time.

Posted 04/02  at  11:52 PM
Derek Carty said...

Mike Ketchen,
I’m not a fan of Kinsler, Gonzo, or Ellsbury that early.  I like Youkilis better than Gonzo, and I like Kemp and McLouth better than Ellsbury.  As for Kinsler, he’s just too risky for my taste in the first couple rounds.

I think you were fine taking the two OFs.  I like both Upton and Granderson, and in the third and fourth rounds those are good values (I would take Kemp or McLouth before Granderson, though).  In 12-team leagues, I have found that I wait until the later rounds on OF, though, which is something to consider.  Elijah Dukes, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, Coco Crisp, maybe a Chris Dickerson.  I think waiting on a couple of those types allows you to better allocate your resources early.

Posted 04/02  at  11:57 PM
Derek Carty said...

ap,
As far as the Atlanta pitchers, it’s just a coincidence.  Vazquez I like because of CAPS, Kawakami because he’s an unknown and goes overlooked, and Lowe I picked because he’s simply a good, reliable pitcher (which was especially needed in KFFL after taking Harden).

As far as help on potential trades, keep an eye out in the coming weeks.  We’ve got some plans in the works you might be interested in.  In the meantime, feel free to e-mail any of our writers with the question.  We get a lot of e-mail so I can’t guarantee they’ll all get answered, but we do read them and try to answer as many as possible.  As for my advice on your specific deal, I’d absolutely jump on it.

Posted 04/03  at  12:00 AM
Bryan said...

Derek,

Ibanez is perenially underrated. I think it’s taken even some people in the industry to catch up to him because he is so quietly consistent, whether in Kansas City or in Seattle. Now, coming to Philly? The ballpark factor will only benefit him. This guy has averaged about .290/25/110 over the last three years; there’s no reason to expect any less, even if this guy is 36 years old.

Posted 04/03  at  03:58 AM
Derek Carty said...

Agreed, Bryan.

Posted 04/03  at  02:48 PM
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