Monday, March 05, 2012
Dollar a day: John Mayberry Jr.
Posted by Nick Fleder at 6:29amRyan Howard? Injured.
Raul Ibanez? Run outta town.
Domonic Brown? Needs more polishing.
Enter John Mayberry Jr., this year’s Michael Morse, and the Phillies' de facto first baseman for the first two months, and presumed left fielder from there on out.
Don’t believe me about the Michael Morse comparison? Their half-season breakouts are strikingly similar. Behold:
The readily apparent difference is that Mayberry possesses much more speed. Both had concerns in development; Morse’s position, focus, cleanliness (I don’t mean hygienically, but in terms of HGH testing) and pedigree was all in question. For Mayberry, it was plate discipline, plate discipline, and more plate discipline.
He’s always been a gifted athlete but finally harnessed his speed in his third go-round at Triple-A (in and of itself a glaring question mark, I know), where he stole 20 bags. He’d hit for double digit power at five previous levels, including twice in Triple-A, but scared off scouts with his consistent 20 percent or higher strikeout rates.
In 2011, though, Mayberry swung less outside of the zone, and made contact more when he did; he swung and missed, additionally, on nearly 10 percent fewer pitches. As a result, his 267 at-bat cameo (similar, again, to Morse’s 266 at-bat foreshadowing in 2010) yielded a respectable 18.6 percent strikeout rate.
So: your last pick? Make it this year’s power breakout.
Nick can be reached for questions, comments, or concerns via email: nick.fleder AT gmail DOT com.
I’m on the Mayberry bandwagon. The only other question seems to me how they handle him position-wise. Do they have him start the year in left field? It’d be nice if they go the first base route and ensure him dual eligibility (he already has it in 10-game requirement leagues like Yahoo, but not 20 like ESPN, where the dual eligibility carries more value in standard formats since they have just three man benches and a CI slot). If he starts at first, who starts in left? Juan Pierre? If its Dominic Brown could that create a playing time riks later in the year for Mayberry? Obviously, for $1 his 25 HR 10 SB potential makes the risks pretty irrelevant, but aside from actual production those are the questions I have with him.