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Tuesday, August 18, 2009Dreaded closersPosted by Paul Singman at 2:36am
Capps has a 6.41 ERA for the year and a 10.71 ERA for the month of August. "Mr. Perfect" last year, Lidge is no better with a 7.27 ERA for the season and an 8.44 ERA in August. It must be those hot summer days, global warming perhaps—a process currently being sped up by the heat generated from the friction off Neftali Feliz's fastball. The Pirates have no real replacement for Capps. Yeah, Chris Bootcheck is not happening and neither is Jesse Chavez, Jeff Karstens, or Evan Meek—but why not Joel Hanrahan? He seems at least stash-worthy to me at this point. He has closing experience, however limited, and also is showing some signs of effectiveness, like a 10.01 K/9 rate. The walks are manageable and you could certainly blame luck for some of his problems—no one deserves a .432 BABIP except perhaps the guys tossing meatballs at the Home Run Derby. And that's with a bunch of small children roaming the outfield. Still, the Pirates have incentive to keep Capps as closer: To keep his trade value this offseason as high as it can be. Unlike Capps, Lidge does have a no-brainer replacement in Ryan Madson. Madson has been excellent all year, except in June when he was—of course—filling in as closer for an injured Lidge. The problem the Phillies have in replacing Lidge is they do not want a bullpen in a state of flux while in contention, and certainly not in the playoffs. Still, you can only sit complacent for so long until the flame of blown saves burns down the match and starts to sear your fingers. Ouch. My point is that Capps and Lidge might be decent trade targets for those whose deadlines have not yet been passed. If you're desperate for some saves and don't want to trade away much to acquire one, see what it will take to get disgruntled owners to part with one of them. They will probably just be happy to have the nuisance off their hands. For those who do own Lidge and Capps, you have to hang onto them. You don't currently have to start them, especially if you are engaged in more of an ERA and WHIP battle than a saves one. But if Mike MacDougal can get five saves in one week, Lidge and Capps could easily do the same. Both have good enough track records that over the final month-and-a-half of regular season they can pitch well enough to keep their jobs and get some saves along the way. Paul has been managing fantasy baseball teams for many seasons and writing for THT Fantasy over the past year (and counting). In his first year competing in expert's leagues, he is both surprised and happy to say he finished in the top 30% of his three leagues. He welcomes readers' thoughts at his email here or in the comments below.
Paul Singman said...
Well, Gregg is an interesting case. His peripherals are as strong as ever, yet his absurd home run rate is dragging his season down. That is probably part luck, but perhaps Gregg is serving up some meatballs as well. Gregg certainly is a dreaded closer—no longer a closer, simply dreaded—but I was too unsure about his situation, I did not want to make any recommendation of what to do with him. As I found out the next day, it worked well to exclude him. Posted 08/19 at 10:08 PM
Jason B said...
“Lidge can Capps could easily do the same.” >> replace ‘can’ with ‘and’. I had an owner in one of my keeper leagues bitching about the head-start I had with “awesome” keepers like Lidge and Geovany Soto, like I had a leg up on winning the league. (This is an auction league where good keepers are pretty difficult to come by.) True, good keepers provide a nice springboard into the next season, but as my stellar keepers readily demonstrate, past performance is by no means a guarantee of equivalent (or even useful) future performance. That’s why fantasy league trophies aren’t distributed after the draft. Particularly when you augment fine keepers such as those with awesome picks like Chris Young. And JJ Hardy. And Edinson Volquez. And…and… (10th place = is it football season yet?) Posted 08/20 at 08:01 PM
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Good read Paul, but how do you NOT include Kevin Gregg in this article? He leads the league with home runs allowed (12), with Brad Lidge in second place in that dubious category. And now, Gregg has lost his closer position.