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Friday, December 31, 2010

Dynasty ranking: Top 25 players age 25 or younger-

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 5:17am

In the ever expanding world of fantasy baseball, one thing seems to permeate all levels of managerial experience, and that is an insatiable desire to read player rankings. For some novice owners, a writer's rankings can serve as a guideline of who to target in drafts or trades. For more skilled owners, rankings may serve as an opportunity to debate with the writer and readers as to the merits of a player they feel is under- or over-valued. Finally, for the snarky, rankings serve as an opportunity to denounce the writers' baseball acumen and poke fun at their inability to put together the perfect set of rankings (which undoubtedly they themselves could do).

Regardless of level of skill, or snark, rankings hold value and interest for seemingly all fantasy baseball managers.

With that in mind, Jeffrey Gross and Paul Singman and I set out to put together our own top 25 rankings of players age 25 or under as of Jan. 1, 2010 (i.e. anyone born in 1985 or later). The league scoring we used as a guideline was a 5x5 roto league that includes two catchers, one corner infielder, one middle infielder, one utility player, five outfielders, nine pitchers of any type (with a 1,250 innings pitched cap) and the other standard positions. No other guidelines or parameters were set.

Each writer put together His list; as expected, the lists varied substantially. As an avid yearly reader, and fan, of The Baseball America Prospect Handbook, I thought it would be fun to post each writer's top 25 list as opposed to a composite list. The idea is that each writer, like each scout in The Baseball America Prospect Handbook, would be held accountable for his list. In the coming days we'll each address our rationale behind our rankings as well as defend our three most questionable or outrageous rankings.

We welcome, actually we encourage, questions and comments about our rankings either below in the comments section, or by e-mail.

+----+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+ | Rk | Josh Shepardson | Jeffrey Gross | Paul Singman | +----+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+ | 1 | Jason Heyward | Evan Longoria | Evan Longoria | | 2 | Evan Longoria | Felix Hernandez | Carlos Gonzalez | | 3 | Carlos Gonzalez | Stephen Strasburg | Jason Heyward | | 4 | Felix Hernandez | Carlos Gonzalez | Justin Upton | | 5 | Jay Bruce | Mat Latos | Felix Hernandez | | 6 | Justin Upton | Justin Upton | Mike Stanton | | 7 | Carlos Santana | Jason Heyward | Jay Bruce | | 8 | Buster Posey | Jay Bruce | Andrew McCutchen | | 9 | Mike Stanton | Carlos Santana | Carlos Santana | | 10 | Mat Latos | Domonic Brown | Stephen Strasburg | | 11 | Clayton Kershaw | Andrew McCutchen | Mat Latos | | 12 | Andrew McCutchen | Desmond Jennings | Buster Posey | | 13 | Pedro Alvarez | Jeremy Hellickson | Clayton Kershaw | | 14 | Madison Bumgarner | Clayton Kershaw | Tommy Hanson | | 15 | Yovani Gallardo | Mike Stanton | Pablo Sandoval | | 16 | Brett Anderson | Buster Posey | Yovani Gallardo | | 17 | Tommy Hanson | Yovani Gallardo | Jeremy Hellickson | | 18 | David Price | David Price | Domonic Brown | | 19 | Desmond Jennings | Colby Rasmus | Pedro Alvarez | | 20 | Jesus Montero | Gordon Beckham | Brett Anderson | | 21 | Domonic Brown | Billy Butler | Desmond Jennings | | 22 | Colby Rasmus | Jesus Montero | David Price | | 23 | Matt Wieters | Brett Anderson | Mike Trout | | 24 | Pablo Sandoval | Madison Bumgarner | Jesus Montero | | 25 | Stephen Strasburg | Pedro Alverez | Madison Bumgarner | +----+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
My e-mail: JoshShep50 AT Yahoo DOT com
Jeffrey's: gameofinchesblog AT gmail DOT com
Paul's: cowchow4you AT gmail DOT com

Feel free to reach me at my e-mail, JoshShep50 AT Yahoo DOT com with any questions, feedback, or any other general inquiries.


Chicago Mark said...

Interesting to see each of you rated Santana higher than Posey.  Sandoval on two ballots.  Jay Bruce is still very young and rated very high.

Posted 12/31  at  07:24 AM
Don said...

Jeffery…...........how could you leave Hanson and Strasburg of the list?

Posted 12/31  at  09:24 AM
this guy said...

All 3 lists are horrendous. I wouldn’t mind saying more, but I don’t even know where to begin.

All 3 lists are horrifically inaccurate. A monkey with some darts can outperform what you’ve done here.

Posted 12/31  at  09:42 AM
Josh Shepardson said...

Thanks for the comments thus far guys.

@ Chicago Mark:  That is interesting, I was curious to see where Jeffrey and Paul would place Santana in relation to Posey as well. 

@ Don: Jeffrey has Strasburg at 3, so you actually missed him, he is there.  However, he did opt to not include Tommy Hanson.

@ This Guy:  A simple starting point for beginning criticism would be the most outlandish list or ranking.  If you care to scrutinize, I’m quite sure the 3 of us would be happy to defend our lists against the mythical monkey with a dart board list.

Posted 12/31  at  10:19 AM
Ross said...

Santana higher than Posey?
What did Santana do to merit that ranking?

Also: Clayton Kershaw is a better pitcher than Mat Latos. Period.

Posted 12/31  at  10:19 AM
Ross said...

Also: didnt Heyward just lose ROY to Posey? Last time I checked, a C is much more valuable than a RF in fantasy land.

Posted 12/31  at  10:20 AM
that guy said...

This guy apparently can’t read ... the list is the Top 25 players AGE 25 OR UNDER.  I would like to see his better list but am afraid I would snort milk through my nose.

Posted 12/31  at  10:27 AM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Ross:  It’s all about future performance.  I can’t speak for everyone, and the attention that’s being paid to the Santana over Posey ranking may have an impact on each of our follow ups, but there is more power potential with Santana than Posey.  It’s also easy to forget just how disciplined Santana was, which was quite impressive.  Take a look at his BABIP, and run it through the xBABIP calculator and you’ll see a guy who should have posted a better average.  It is real close with both, but I’d rather sacrifice average for power, especially when I don’t think the average difference will be as dramatic as first glance would indicate.  Also remember the added benefit of being the best hitter on a team in the AL means Santana may see time at DH when he’s not behind the dish.  As far as the Kershaw and Latos debate, that’s an awful rosy portrail of Kershaw who has a lower GB rate, significantly higher walk rate and only a slightly higher strikeout rate.  Toss in that Latos pitches in San Diego and is cost controlled, thus going nowhere, for quite a while, and the Kershaw is better than Latos blanket statement simply doesn’t fly.

Posted 12/31  at  10:29 AM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Ross (again, sorry didn’t recognize the next post was yours as well, still a bit bleary eyed):  As for Heyward over Posey.  Sure he lost the award, but owners don’t get bonus fantasy points for owning the 2010 NL Rookie of the year.  Also, yes, C is more valuable than one of 5 OF’s in fantasyland, especially when the outlined league is a two catcher league.  However, simply because the position is more scarce doesn’t mean you take the best player at it over a more qualified player elsewhere.  This is where it really comes down to what you project from each player.  You wouldn’t question and owner for taking Pujols over Mauer at 1 in the draft in spite of the difference of depth and talent at each position.  Toss in that in a dynasty league that the rate of attrition and toll taken from donning the tools of ignorance is more impactful as any shortage to the shelf life of a player’s usefulness makes them less attractive as a long term piece of the puzzle.  Making lists like these are so incredibly difficult (and fun) because of having to weight things such as position scarcity and shelf life of a player so carefully (amongst many other variables).

Posted 12/31  at  10:37 AM
David said...

Glad to see 4 of my dynasty players so highly ranked - Upton, Bruce, Santana and Gallardo.  Wondering if Beckham was close to making the other 2 lists?  All of you are confident in Sandoval - do you see him bouncing back as early as this year as undecided about his value in a redraft league?  Also in my experience, Monkeys are not as good with darts as most people imagine.

Posted 12/31  at  10:58 AM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Don,

I left them on because this is a Dynasty list. It looks beyond 2011.

Posted 12/31  at  12:30 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Don,
To be frank, I forgot about Hanson…Ooops. I’d likely rank him 1 ahead of Butler…if Josh wants to update accordingly…

Posted 12/31  at  12:35 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Ross,

Santana is a .285 hitter with 30 HR power, can swipe 10 or so bags and will bat in the heart of the indians line up behind sizemore and Choo. Posey is a semi-light hitter, 20+ home run capable, with good, but not elite avg skills (.290-.300). Posey also plays at the more cavernous park.

And just because Posey won ROY does not mean he deserved it. I made the case numerous times that Heyward was the more valuable player, especially with position considered. Heyward is top 5 in BB in a single season ever for a player under 21. He also produced a 5.0 WAR season while underproducing in the power department, while posey overproduced powerwise. Posey drafters are going to be disappointed that he does not repeat his 2010 performance.

Posted 12/31  at  12:41 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Chicago Mark,

I was tempted to put Sandoval on this list, but he barely missed the cut. He just has to prove too much in 2011. A good 1 year bounce back gamble, but not a long term investment unless bought on the cheap. Low walk rate, bad body type. We’ll see how it plays out next year. I like him, but I can’t justify him as a dynasty asset right now.

Posted 12/31  at  12:42 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@David

If you have Upton, Bruce, Santana and Gallardo you will be sitting pretty. I’m probably higher on Beckham than most, watching him play in Chicago regularly (I am not a White Sox fan, however). I think something akin to his 2009 performance is his true talent line, but with more AVG. I have him pegged for .285-.290 with 20 HR, 10 SB, good R/RBI totals

See my above comment on Sandoval

Posted 12/31  at  12:45 PM
Lou said...

Santana deserves to be ranked above Posey.  Santana had a better OBP and OPS.  He is more likely to stay at catcher.  Most importantly though, he plays in the AL and because of the Indians weak lineup, he will get those extra ABs at the DH position.

Posted 12/31  at  12:46 PM
Tony said...

Cool lists… let me poke at you some.  You ask for it when you make any sort of lists wink.

@Josh:  Make your point for Heyward over Longoria.  Longoria has demonstrated brilliance at a weaker position; whereas, Heyward still has some question marks (health would be one big one).  Strasburg @ 25 is a little ridiculous too. If I were drafting a fresh dynasty league today, I most definitely wouldn’t draft all of those 24 guys in front of him.

Mike Stanton is way too high on everyone’s list.  His power is obviously for real, but his high K-rate is going to make an average over .260 really unlikely along with a poor OBP…  Surely a guy with ace potential like David Price is worth more than that.

I’ll give Paul the best grade on this list.  Stanton is too high on his list, but I have less problems with his.

Posted 12/31  at  01:02 PM
Rocky said...

I’m surprised Bryce Harper isn’t on someone’s list. Is he too far away from the bigs ?

Posted 12/31  at  01:32 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Rocky,

Yes

Posted 12/31  at  01:54 PM
jim said...

I’d be interested to see where Wieters was on these lists 2 years ago, or Beckham last year.  to any of the 3 that made these list, I’d be interested in knowing who you feel is most likely to fall off your list - e.g. who do you see as having the most risk? I think Stanton has a lot of risk due to his K rate, i.e. Chris Davis.

Posted 12/31  at  02:40 PM
Scott said...

I was surprised how heavily dominated the National League talent, add Bryce Harper to the mix and it’s close to 70% NL players.

Posted 12/31  at  02:56 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

I still love Chris Davis. He’s perpetually one of my sleepers. But stanton is a safer bet due to a better K/BB ratio (less prone to super-slumps)

Posted 12/31  at  03:07 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

Here are some of my thoughts on my Dynasty Rankings:
http://jeffreygross.podbean.com/mf/web/ct2ye3/JeffreyRankings.mp3

Posted 12/31  at  03:12 PM
JEH said...

Thanks for the lists.  They all look pretty reasonable to me, though I am a little surprised not to see Elvis Andrus. 

Personally, I expect more from him than from Mike Stanton over the next five years.

Posted 12/31  at  03:24 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

Josh, you will have to tell me how you created this awesome chart

Posted 12/31  at  03:25 PM
Jon Kissinger said...

What about Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus?  Obviously I’m a Rangers fan, but I was shocked to see neither of them.  Did I miss something about the criteria?

Posted 12/31  at  03:38 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Jon Kissinger,

Andrus isn’t even a top 10 SS, let alone a top 25 player under 25. He’s a better real life player (Defense) than fantasy and this is a fantasy list. Furthermore, Feliz is currently a reliever and no reliever is worth a candle to a starting pitcher/position player in terms of value.

Posted 12/31  at  04:12 PM
Andrew said...

Moustakas is going to make you guys regret leaving him out.

Posted 12/31  at  04:13 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Jeffrey

This awesome chart is the work of Paul.  He created it in Excel and exported it to word pad I believe.  I was at a loss for how to put it together, but Paul saved the day.  I’m sure he’d be more than happy to share his wisdom.

Posted 12/31  at  04:18 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Tony

I knew my ranking of Heyward over Longoria would ruffle feathers, and I promise an explanation, but you’ll have to stay tuned.  Believe me, I thought about folding to the positional scarcity (and obviously Longoria is talented as well) but when you hear my explanation, I believe you’ll at least see where I’m coming from.  As for Strasburg, I understand that TJ is a far cry from the scare it used to be, but missing an entire year, and then having to round back into form scares me.  I also plan on further explaining his low ranking in the coming days as well, since I figured he’d be one of my more heavily criticized rankings.  As far as Stanton goes, I think age is a key thing to remember.  He’s so young, and while he’s unlikely to transform into a guy with a substantially better strikeout rate, I would expect some improvement both there, and in his walk rate.  The power is off the charts, and given that he doesn’t pose the inherent injury risk of a pitcher, I’ll take my chance on a hitter over a pitcher of the same caliber every day of the week.

Posted 12/31  at  04:25 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Rocky

Yes, I think we all simply weren’t comfortable projecting a guy , even with his crazy high ceiling, ahead of guys who have either played very well in the bigs, or demolished the high minors and gotten some big league PT.  He and Machado did get some thought for the very back end of my list though.

Posted 12/31  at  04:27 PM
Doug said...

Like Andrew above, I was also hoping to see Michael Moustakas on a list.  It’s probably too soon.

Posted 12/31  at  04:34 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Jim

Gordon Beckham was a tough cut for me.  There is a lot to like, and I was firmly in his corner last year.  Being that he was a polished college hitter (albeit with very little minor league experience) last year’s step back was majorly disappointing for me.  That said, players have off years, unfortunately with such a small track record, it causes a player like Beckham’s stock to fluctuate greatly.  I could easily see Beckham living up to Jeffrey’s projections.

Pablo Sandoval was a player I also had internal debate over including, namely over Beckham, as I essentially lumped them in the same group together.  My reasoning behind including Sandoval, and thus not Beckham, was that I believe a lot of his struggles had to do with off field issues, namely going through a divorce and a scare back home with his mother.  Sure, the free swinging remains a concern, but I believe a large part of the drop in production was difficulty focusing.  I try to stray from speculation like that, but with two players who took similar steps back, consider this a bit of a tie breaker analysis.  My bigger concern from Panda is how long he’ll stay at 3B.

As for Matt Wieters, he would have been a top 5 (probably top 3) player on my list as recently as two years ago, and probably still top 5 or 10 coming into this past season.  I really view him at the biggest potential market mover on my list.  The talent that captured scouts imagination still is there, and he’s still so young.  Considering he has a great deal on his plate handling a pitching staff in addition to having to hit, struggles shouldn’t be a surprise.  I really think he has a solid year this year, and if you look at his numbers from last year there was definitely hidden growth.  I have been doing a bit of looking at the numbers for he, and other post-hype sleeper types, so be on the lookout for some fresh material from me on here in short order.

Posted 12/31  at  04:36 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Scott
Very interesting observation that I hadn’t noted.

Posted 12/31  at  04:37 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ JEH and Jon Kissinger

I’m with Jeff in stating that Andrus real life value far outweighs his fantasy value.  As for Neftali Feliz, if the Rangers would firmly declare a role for him, I’d be much more comfortable ranking him.  Even as a closer with the potential for 100+ K’s and solid ratios, he’d get consideration for the back end of my top 25, but the not knowing concerns me.  Look at what has happened to Joba Chamberlain being jerked around?  While it appears Feliz is destined to stay in the bullpen, a permanent move to the rotation would also land him on this list.

Posted 12/31  at  04:40 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Andrew and Doug

Mike Moustakas has a compelling case for making the list.  My biggest concern is that last year was his first year of top prospect like performance in the high minors (or at any level for that matter, though 2008 was quite good).  Couple with that a low walk rate, and his homerun pop coming in two very hitter friendly leagues, and the jury is still out a bit on him.  I do like him, consider him in the 26-35 area for me, but I just need a bit more.

Posted 12/31  at  04:43 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

Moustakas is still a year or so away. Just like Harper, he’ll likely be on a future list, but right now, nope! This is not a future prospects list smile

Posted 12/31  at  06:09 PM
John said...

I am surprised Billy Butler is not on every list.  Is it because he got called up young and learned at MLB level?  His last 2 years of stats would be a dream for the guys that were listed ahead of him with limited or no MLB experience.  I get that 1b is not a leverage position, but I doubt Brown or Jennings cracks .280/.340/.420 threshold.

Posted 12/31  at  06:32 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ John

I’m begginning to be concerned about Butler’s power potential.  His line is very good, and a CI helps his value, but as you alluded to, playing first base hurts him a bit.  Until he starts lofting the ball (which he may), or he’s surrounded in the lineup by a group of high OBP guys that he can drive in, I’m going to temper my expectations.  As far as Jennings and Brown go, they may not crack that threshold this year, but keep in mind that these are dynasty rankings and encompass more than this year’s production.  Regardless, there is an argument to be made for Billy Butler, and his proven track record at a young age in the majors is certainly one to be made in his favor.  Keep in mind his value takes a free fall though if/when Hosmer takes over 1B duties and Butler is slotted at DH, thus only UTIL eligible.

Posted 12/31  at  07:05 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Josh

Disagree on Butler. He’s what, 24? And already hitting 50 doubles and 20 HR? Just wait.

Keep in mind, the Royals have the 3rd lowest HR/FB index in the major leagues (0.86166214), only 1% more HR friendly than Busch Stadium

Posted 12/31  at  10:04 PM
The Baltimoron said...

Jeffrey Gross said…
“Moustakas is still a year or so away. Just like Harper, he’ll likely be on a future list, but right now, nope! This is not a future prospects list”

Uh, it says “dynasty” right there at the top.  It’s, like, the very first word.

Posted 12/31  at  10:37 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@The Baltimoron,

Dynasty leagues include this and next season, of which moustakas will have maybe 100 total AB. Likewise, Harper. Their ETA = 2013

Posted 12/31  at  10:48 PM
The Baltimoron said...

And yet, Strasburg, Montero, and Trout make the lists.  It would seem to me that Phil Hughes, Trevor Cahill, Daniel Hudson, Jaime Garcia, Ike Davis, Starlin Castro, Ian Desmond, Austin Jackson, and Adam Jones deserve consideration over those players.  Just sayin’...

Posted 12/31  at  11:24 PM
Doug said...

Disagree on Moustakas’ playing time this upcoming season.  I would bet he sees 300+ ABs this season and is full time in 2012 unless he gets injured.

Posted 12/31  at  11:38 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@The Baltimoron
Strasburg will play 1+ months (35+ IP) in 2011. Jesus Montero is the slated opening day C for New York, with Posada as the everyday slotted DH.


While an argument might be made for Hudson, who is on my 10 tough cuts list, Cahill, Hughes and Garcia’s ceilings are well below the other names on this list. Likewise, Davis and Castro aren’t even top 12 options at their respective positions….

Austin Jackson’s ridiculous BABIP will show his true talent in 2011 (no walks, no power, good LD = underwhelm), while Adam Jones is an old story of “he’ll be good soon.” Jones’ walk rate is pathetic, is power is barely above average and his speed is Markakis like. Baltimore’s stud youngsters arent panning out as prettily as expected…

Posted 01/01  at  05:29 AM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Doug,

Why would Moustakas, only 22 right now, see full time MLB play in 2012? The Royals have a lot of young prospects who won’t be ready till ‘13/14 and Kila is substantially more than a “placeholder”, while Gordon is also still around. I love Moustakas’ upside and potential, but he’ll get a full season in the minors (AAA?) in 2011 and spend at least the first month and a half in the minors in 2012. We’ll see him in september, however.

Posted 01/01  at  05:32 AM
Andrew said...

Russell Martin, not Jesus Montero, is the Yankees starting catcher.

The Royals will probably wait until June 1st to call up Moustakas, but they’re not waiting until September.

This is a prospect with Longoria-type upside coming off one of the top Minor League seasons in recent memory.

Posted 01/01  at  12:32 PM
jay said...

the best way to make a list like this is to check what 30 GM’s would say about what players they’d want. Your lists are a little bad in terms of the lower end content. How can you rate players that haven’t even made to the majors like Jennings, Trout and Montero? Second, Beckham hasn’t done anything over his career to be even in the top 50 and Sandoval too. Third, I would be willing to bet every GM in the league would rank Strasburg in the top 5 and Hanson in the top 15. I would easily take Hanson over some of those other guys. Finally, how do you not rate David Price in the top 15 with all that he has accomplished in the past year and being a southpaw to add. He is as good as it gets when his stuff is on.

Posted 01/01  at  12:42 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Andrew,

I know the Yanks have Martin, but Montero will be on that roster. Mark my words.

Posted 01/01  at  01:17 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Andrew,

Moustakas is a strong prospect, but again, the Royals are not going to start his clock before the team is ready to compete. They have 4 1B/DH types between Kila, Butler, Moustakas and Hosmer. The latter two will arrive in a couple of years

Posted 01/01  at  01:18 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

Price is going to reality check people in 2011. His peripherals last season were not as strong as people believe. He’s just Chad Billingsley pitching in the AL East

Posted 01/01  at  01:19 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

Er, Billingsley with more flyballs

Posted 01/01  at  01:20 PM
Andrew said...

Moustakas will play 3B, Jeffrey. The logjam at 1B/DH is irrelevant.

Posted 01/01  at  02:01 PM
Doug said...

Moustakas will be play 3B, there is no doubt of that in 2011.  Will he remain there long-term?  We’ll see, but his first action in the majors will be at 3B this season.

Posted 01/01  at  02:15 PM
Jointston said...

I strongly disagree on your assessment of Andrus.  Have you forgot that this kid was born in August of 88 and already has 2 MLB season under his belt that show increasing maturity?  2011 will have his floor (yes, floor) increase to a 35+ SB threat, 100+ Runs, .350 OBP, with a .275 Avg.  Toss in 5+ HR’s at the top of a pretty potent Rangers lineup and you have a top 5 SS, easy.

To not crack the top 25 list is ridiculous when some of these names haven’t had an AB or IP at a MLB level.  2 years of demonstrated growth at his age has to crack this list.

Posted 01/01  at  03:19 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

Moustakas does not have the defensive skills to stick at third

Posted 01/01  at  03:55 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Jeff
Now that last nights festivities have worn off, I’ll jump back in with some commentary…  I don’t disagree that Butler should see his doubles turn into home runs, but until he changes his batted ball profile (he’s hitting over 47% ground balls), he’s simply not going to hit many home runs.  Considering his high average, it may be a conscious decision of his to sacrifice home runs for more hits.  I like Butler, but until I see him hit more flyballs, I’m not going to hold my breath for more power.

Posted 01/01  at  04:58 PM
Andrew said...

They’ll at least try to see if Moustakas can play 3B.

Either way, I’ve yet to see one major publication that does not list his ETA as 2011.

I’m not sure why you believe that he’s still “a couple years away,” but that’s simply false.

Posted 01/01  at  05:03 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

Commenting in general on Mike Moustakas, I think the ball is in his court as to when he gets promoted.  While I think the Royals would like to let him stay in the minors almost the entire year, thus manipulating his service time so he’s promoted closer to the other top prospects, if he’s raking I don’t think they will.  If he demolishes Triple-A pitching, I think he’ll see a June callup, because lets face it, the Royals are going to be bad this year, and it may be worth losing a year of cost control if it means using him as a selling point to put fannies in the seats.  However, I’m not sold that Moustakas will come out guns a blazin’ in Triple-A.  His walk rate leaves quite a bit to be desired, and last year was his first season of truly impressive minor league work, so as I’ve said before, the jury is still out a bit.  I do like his ceiling, and believe he’ll put it together, but wouldn’t be shocked if he legitimately needed a full season in the minors.

Posted 01/01  at  05:04 PM
Andrew said...

Just saw this on Rotoworld too:

Royals MLB.com beat writer Dick Kaegel writes that Mike Moustakas will have a shot to win the third base job in spring training but will “have to burn up camp” to do so.

Posted 01/01  at  05:05 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Jay

Putting our lists up against what real MLB GM’s would put together would be a fruitless effort given that this is a fantasy baseball article.

Posted 01/01  at  05:08 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Jointston

Those are quite friendly projections for Elvis Andrus.  5+ homeruns would be quite the tall order as he hit 0 last year, and hit under 20% FB’s.  Also, while he did steal 32 bases, he was also CS 15 times, so unless he’s able to get his SB rate up (which he did in the postseason 8 SB to 1 CS), the risk is there that Ron Washington puts the brakes on him a bit.  I am a fan of the age and experience of Andrus, but I’m not so sure I believe his ceiling is terribly high for fantasy purposes.

Posted 01/01  at  05:22 PM
Kevin L. Wiley said...

First off an awesome piece!!!

I have a question about the Hellickson/Price comparison.

Let me note that both Gross and Singman both have Hellickson ahead of Price.  And Shepherdson has Price ranked but no Hellickson.

My rather elementary view would lean to agree with Sheperdson on this one.

But I would tend to gather from you other two that each if view Hellickson’s upside marketabley higher than that of Price.  Considering Price has already broken through and established himself as a quality MLB starter.

I;m not saying any of this to be critical but rather to get a better feeling for how good Hellickson is likely to be.

Posted 01/01  at  05:24 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Joinston,

Let’s say Andrus hits .270, steals 30 bases and hits 5 homers with 100 runs. I’d bank that Jeter still approaches a balanced 15/15 with a substantially better AVG and more Runs (let alone RBI).

Likewise, I also gamble guys like Stephen Drew will outpace him. He’s not top 5. He is, again, a good real life shortstop, but not a top tier option at fantasy

Posted 01/01  at  06:08 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Andrew,

I do not doubt he’s almost major league ready and capable of contributing in 2011. The point is that most of the Royals’ young prospects are still several years away. Why would they start the service time clock on a stud when 1) they arent competing in 2011 or 2012, 2) they have a strong stop gag (Kila) who could make strong trade bait to fill holes, 3) he’s barely seen time at AAA yet and we all know how the Alex Gordon story played out.

Posted 01/01  at  06:10 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Josh,

I agree with your Andrus estimation

Posted 01/01  at  06:12 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Kevin L. Wiley,

I think the reason I am bigger on Hellickson is he has better control of a strong mix of pitches. Price is talented, but wild and at best a neutral FB/GB pitcher. That’s clearly something special, but it’s not top tier potential, especially in the AL East. If Price was anywhere else, I’d put him higher. He’s really Chad Billingsley, with less grounders, in the AL east.

Price is on my top 25 SP for 2011, ahead of Hellickson, but if Hellickson was given 200+ IP (which he wont), I’d probably rank Hellickson top 15 (and closer to 10 than 15). Hellickson’s MLE lines are just ridiculous

Posted 01/01  at  06:14 PM
Kevin L. Wiley said...

It would be interesting to see Hitters/Pitchers broke out and maybe ranked in a Top 20 fashion.

I understand more weight being given to everyday players but to Felix Hernandez is clearly the best under 25 year old player.

He has had 2 straight remarkable seasons, capped with a Cy Young award he has proven his durability.

He has a five year record as a major league starter where he has shown signs of improvement every year.  If he settle in somewhere between his 2009-2010 production level for the next 6-7 years (through his prime age years) you’re looking at an all time great.

Projecting players to what their ceiling is is always fun, but when a player has already established prior to being 25 a level of performance that if just sustained through their prime places them in an all time discussion, I think that player deserves to be placed above a list of players of which none have done what already has.

(I’m knotpicking a bit as I love the list!!!)

Posted 01/01  at  06:43 PM
Kevin L. Wiley said...

Please excuse some of my obvious grammatical and typo issues, I’m trying to multi task while watching the Rose Bowl.

Posted 01/01  at  06:46 PM
The Baltimoron said...

Jesus Montero:
DOB: 11/28/89
2010: full season at AAA, .353 OBP, .511 SLG

Mike Moustakas:
DOB: 9/11/88
2010: even split between AA and AAA, .369 OBP, .630 SLG

Given that Montero is more than a year younger, needs much more seasoning as a catcher, is trying to join a title contender, and had the lesser season last year, I’m baffled why you think he’s going to make the opening day roster this season, and Moustakas is not to be seen until summer 2012?

Posted 01/01  at  06:46 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@The Baltimoron,

Yankees = can compete in 2011/12 and have an incentive to load Montero in the lineup.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/10/24/offseason.look/index.html?eref=sihp#ixzz13OLjSKNp

http://www.faketeams.com/2010/10/28/1779495/fantasy-baseball-jesus-montero-to-be-yankees-starting-catcher-in-2011

Posted 01/01  at  06:55 PM
Kevin L. Wiley said...

At Baltimoron,

I understand his point on why it might not be to the Royals long term benefit to bring Moustakis up in 2011.

The Royals have a tremendous farm system and if he can be held back a year it could help the team long term as far as player control and salary control issues are concerned.  It’s not like his bat could make a real difference when the Royals 2011 team aspirations of playoff success are considered.

Whereas the Yankess don’t have to concern them selves so much with player control and salary issues, but do concern themselves with the success of their MLB team in 2011.  With all that said it is no guarantee (especially if Martin is healthy) that even Montero is on the Yankees opening day roster in 2011.

Posted 01/01  at  06:58 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Baltimoron

Keep in mind those lines were put up in different leagues, so you have to account for the fact that Moustakas played in two crazy hitter leagues (Texas League and the PCL). 

Also, the Yankees won’t concern themselves with manipulating Montero’s service time, as they simply don’t need to.  If they believe him capable of serving as a backup catcher/DH and an asset to the team (either through remaining with the club or playing well in the majors and dealing him), then he’ll be on the roster.

I personally think if Moustakas crushes the ball in Triple-A he’ll get called up over the summer, but it remains to be seen if he continues to rip the cover off the ball, and if the Royals will be willing to give up service time for him to play on a bad squad this year.  Tough to say I think.

Posted 01/01  at  07:16 PM
Doug said...

This may be completely wrong but I wouldn’t think the Royals would want everyone’s service clock on the same year.  Moustakas, Hosmer, Myers, Montgomery, Lamb, Duffy etc.  Let’s stop there, if all six wait until 2012, would that be good business for all six to reach arbitration and free agency in the same years.  I think Moustakas, Duffy, and either <Monty or Lamb) begin this year with Hosmer getting a cup of coffee in Sept.  Myers may be a stretch in 2012 but Hosmer will be up by then.  I’m not as high on KK as others, I do not see him as an obstacle.  They will give Moustakas every chance to play 3B because ideally it is Mous (3B), Hosmer (1B), Butler (DH), Myers (RF).  IF all the cards play right that is a heck of a 3-6 in the lineup.  That is of course a big IF. Golly, if only Alex Gordon had lived up to any of the height and could play a good LF.

Posted 01/01  at  08:15 PM
Doug said...

*height = hype, opps :O)

Posted 01/01  at  08:17 PM
Ross said...

@Josh Shepardson- points well taken: I guess I misconstrued “valuable” with most talented. I think that on a neutral field, Posey would put up numbers comparable to Santana, better average but lower power, while playing better D (which of course doesnt matter in fantasy).
Santana has produced for exactly 150 AB. I know Posey doesn’t have a huge sample size, but he hit well in the postseason against some very good pitching, and he gives us a 450 AB sample size to look at. They are essentially the same age (I think Posey is 8 months younger?) and still have some development in front of them.

As for Latos v Kershaw: The Giants in 2010 were 10th worst in the MLB in groundball rate and had a spectacular staff, although they play in a big park so fly balls arent as dangerous, so do Kershaw and Latos. What I’m saying is that groundball rates aren’t an important distinguishing factor between the two. Kershaw has lead the league in BAA (2009) and if Im not mistaken, he was ahead of Latos last year. Plus Kershaw throws the ball with his left hand.

All in all, you’re right, its closer than I thought, but being as they are the same age, Id take Kershaw over Latos any day of the week.

Posted 01/01  at  11:21 PM
Adam said...

Two guys I am very interested in but is one year too old for this list is Josh Johnson and Clay Bucholz.  Where do you see them on a list of this sort?

Posted 01/02  at  05:15 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

I’d put Johnson on par with Cargo. Buchholz isnt a top 50 pitcher on my 2011 rankings, i do not believe (check this friday)

Posted 01/02  at  05:39 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Ross,

I’m not the biggest Kershaw fan either, for some reason. I ranked him #16 for 2011

Posted 01/02  at  05:41 PM
Andrew said...

Baltimoron, just give it up. Jeffrey will be proven wrong.

Apparently he knows something that Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, Jim Callis, John Sickels, etc. don’t.

Let him live in OpinionLand. We prefer facts.

Posted 01/02  at  05:54 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Ross

I can agree that Kershaw probably has the more desirable package so to speak (stuff and handedness), and that his GB rate won’t be as big of a deal thanks to his punchouts and home ballpark.  My biggest concern with Kershaw, and really any pitcher with occasional control issues (admittedly I didn’t realize Kershaw’s BB/9 was down to a much more acceptable 3.57 this past season) is that one of two things happen; 1) They completely lose control or 2) They get their walk rate to a better level, and see a dip in their K/9.  Regardless, both Kershaw and Latos are desirable young arms in dynasty leagues, and are quite close in the rankings, this much I believe we’re in complete agreement on.

Posted 01/02  at  06:58 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Adam

I’d probably rank Josh Johnson in the 5-8 range on my list.  Clay Buchholz wouldn’t crack my top 25.  All of Buchholz underlying stats point to him being quite lucky last year.  I love the groundball rate he posts, but beyond that, there isn’t much to get excited about.  His K/9 is a fairly weak 6.22 and is not offset by pristine control as his BB/9 was 3.47.  He posted solid strikeout numbers in the high minors, so perhaps there is untapped potential to be had, but Buchholz has all the makings of being a better real life player than fantasy player at this point.

Posted 01/02  at  07:35 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Andrew

I’m not sure when and how the opinions of Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, Jim Callis and John Sickels became fact, but that’s news to me.  While I do think Moustakas will be called up this year, probably in the early summer, it’s really all speculation and opinion at this point, albeit some opinions more informed than others.  Still, as I’ve stated many times in the comments, one season ripping the ball in two hitter friendly leagues doesn’t assure sustained success, especially with a fairly poor walk rate (though he does make up for that with a really stellar contact rate).  There are chinks in the armor that could use some working out, and early season struggles would be just the excuse the Royals need to further delay starting his arbitration clock.  There is a lot to like about Moustakas, and if this list were extended further, he’d fall somewhere in my 30-35 range I’d estimate.  Thanks for the continued commentary, that is a big part of the fun of putting together lists like this.

Posted 01/02  at  07:43 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Andrew, Baltimoron,

I’m willing to put my money where my mouth is. Not this year, but in 2012, I plan to create a dynasty league. If I am wrong about Moustakas (let’s place the over/under at 400 AB, equivalent of a june call up), I will give you both invites into the league if you are so interested.

If I am wrong, however, you have to read my weekly friday Waiver Wire article for a whole year wink

Posted 01/02  at  09:22 PM
jp said...

if you’re gonna rank prospects in the Minors than how do you not rank Julio Teheran? He has been compared to Feliz Hernandez.

Posted 01/02  at  09:26 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@JP,
Teheran has never played above AA and is likely at least a year away. I do not put stock in prospects until they reach the AAA level, generally. His MLE for 2011 is a 4.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8 K/9. Thats solid, but uninspiring compared to the top 25.

All that said, he is one of my 5 favorite MiLB pitchers, alone with guys like Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy.

Posted 01/02  at  09:29 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ JP

Julio Teheran got exactly 0 consideration from me for this list.  I ranked a whopping one player without any big league experience, and that was Jesus Montero.  In fairness, Julio Teheran is a fantastic prospect, and a great target in dynasty leagues, but he doesn’t stand out that far from a group of pitchers in the high minors that includes Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson, or even Martin Perez (who did struggle in Double-A this year).  Like I said, I like Teheran a lot, but he’s a lot closer to top 50 material than top 25.

Posted 01/02  at  09:42 PM
Ross said...

@Jeff Gross and @Josh Shepardson

Thanks for taking the time to defend your viewpoints. I agree that you have sound reasoning for your choices, I just happen to disagree slightly.

Since I took the time to voice my opinion of dissent against your view points please feel free to take a look at the beginnings of a SABR based HOF I am creating on my blog, which is nowhere near as in depth as yours is. I’d appreciate any feedback I can get

http://rossandheckler.blogspot.com/2011/01/starting-sabr-hof.html

you can either comment on the blog or email me directly at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

Posted 01/02  at  11:35 PM
Ross said...

That last post was supposed to include something about, feel free to disagree with me as I have with you.. fair is fair right?

Cheers

Posted 01/02  at  11:36 PM
STEALTH said...

Billy Butler? Pablo Sandoval? You’ve got to be kidding me. Over Trout? You really want Butler or Sandoval in a Dynasty league over Trout?

And Jay Bruce is too high. I realize he’s still young, but I’ll still take Jennings, McCutchen, Santana, and Posey ahead of Bruce, and probably several more.

Posted 01/02  at  11:52 PM
Andrew said...

OK, the bet is on, Jeffrey.

Either way, I win because I already read your weekly Waiver Wire articles. Those were excellent this past season. Your analysis is, as always, top notch.

I apologize if I came across too strongly. I guess I just find it strange when a fantasy writer posits an ETA for Moustakas that belies every major publication.

As I said, the bet is on, though, as I would love to be a part of that dynasty league.

Posted 01/03  at  12:52 AM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Ross,

I really liked the article. Good job. I just tweeted it on THT Links

Posted 01/03  at  02:11 AM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@STEALTH,

Bruce is my age (just a tad under 4 months older, at 23), yet he has a career ISO of .217 with an above average walk rate (9.1%) that has improved every year in the bigs (7.3%, 9.8%, 10.1%). Furrthermore, he’s got average speed which gives him the ability to swipe 5-10 bases. Bruce ended the year strong with an ISO of .333 and .404 in Aug and Sept, and we all know the power flashes he showed in 2009. The guy is a legit 30+ HR threat, capable of hitting .280+ from the middle of the Reds’ potent lineup. He’s someone you want, as he’s not technically “entering his prime” just yet. He’ll hit 40+ some season

Posted 01/03  at  02:16 AM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Andrew,

Don’t worry, I took no offense. I put 0 stock in what experts opine about playing time and ETA. I am looking at it from the aspect of baseball economics, not when Moustakas is ready. I’ll conceded Oliver’s outlook for Moustakas’ MLE for 201: 555 PA, 93:32 K/BB (awful), .268/.314/.485 with 26 HR (solid) and 86 RBI to 69 R and a few SB (4, though 2 expected CS). Oliver’s MLE WAR expectation is +2.2.

But Moustakas’ 2013 outlook (based on production to date) is much better: .273/.320/.505

We’ll see what happens.

I’ve got 2 spots still open in my non-THT ROR league, so maybe I will run a side competition to let a reader in to it. Speaking of which, I probably should announce who we have elected into the THT fantasy league for 2011….

Posted 01/03  at  02:21 AM
Paul Singman said...

I’ll jump in here on a few of the debates:

Hellickson vs Price: Price had a tremendous season but I also believe it likely will be the best of his career. With his peripherals, going forward I can see him as a high 3’s-low 4’s ERA pitcher. Hellickson on the other hand has better control and relies less on his fastball to blow by hitters. The maturity Hellickson shows is rare and I like his future over Price’s.

What Stanton did as a 20 year old in a little over half a season in the majors is incredibly impressive, and with slight plate disclipline improvements can be a .280 hitter with 40+ home run power. Perhaps ranking him over Bruce and McCutchen was a bit bold but I like his future a lot.

Billy Butler is a nice player but a .310 avg and 20 home runs only goes so far at first base.

If I had to move someone down my list it would be Pablo Sandoval because I do believe his skill level lies in between his 2009 and ‘10 seasons, and a .290 avg with 20 home runs does not merit his ranking above some of the other players with higher ceilings.

A lot of Jesus Montero’s value is tied to his ability to maintain his catcher eligibility (assuming he breaks into the league with it). I’ve read the scouting reports that say he won’t stick at catcher, but it will only take five starts at catcher this season (Yahoo) to guarantee his eligibility through 2012, which I don’t find too unlikely given Posada’s majority DH role, Martin’s health, and Cervelli’s ineffectiveness. With a comparable bat to Moustakas, the potential C eligibility brought Montero onto the list over Moustakas, who was one of my final cuts.

Posted 01/03  at  05:15 AM
cdog said...

What about Jay Bruce? He SHOULD have won comeback player of the year!!!

Posted 01/03  at  05:18 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ cdog

I absolutely love Jay Bruce.  Jeff has pointed out his upward trending BB rate, which is something I love in a young power hitter like Bruce.  His strikeout rate is a tad bit high, though acceptable at 26.7%, and considering his 2009 mark of 21.7%, points to potential for improvement.  Jeff pointed out the monsterous end of season ISO marks from Bruce, and considering he broke his wrist in 2009, it is plausible that it took until the second half for him to fully recover his pop.  I entirely expect Bruce to hit 30+ HR’s next year, with an average .275 or better, and 5-8 stolen bases as gravy.  If he’s able to reduce his strikeout rate, a batting average .285 or north of that isn’t out of the question either.  Given that he’s just 23 years old now, Bruce has time on his side, and some serious productive years ahead of him.

Posted 01/03  at  06:27 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Paul,

I do not think Stanton is particularly overranked. I just need to see one full season before I vault him to my top 5-10 range.

Posted 01/04  at  02:45 AM
rbt said...

Just catching up after being incommunicado over the holidays and want to chime in on Moustakas.

Unless he is absolutely tanking in Omaha, he will absolutely be in Kansas City this year, as soon as the Super Two deadline has passed.  And he will be playing third base.  The Royals did not make very specific moves last year to clear space for him for nothing.  The current presence of Ka’aihue and Butler and the future presence of Hosmer don’t matter one iota.  Moustakas may move to 1B one day, but that day ain’t soon.

If I played fantasy, I’d take your bet too.  But I just read about fantasy, so instead will enjoy the public eating of crow.

Posted 01/04  at  06:25 PM
Pat said...

I’d like to see a little more love for Clayton Kershaw. In only his 2nd season as a full starter he lowered his bb/9 to a respectable 3.57 from 4.79. His k/9 rate did dip from an elite 9.74 to a still impressive 9.34. But such a small drop isn’t much concern when coupled with the much improved walk rate. I think he definitely deserves to be put ahead of a guy like jay bruce, who has proven much less despite having over 1400 big league plate appearances. I would even debate ranking him above strasburg and justin upton when his near perfect bill of health is taken into consideration. Should his walk rate continue to decrease, he has a very real shot at winning the cy young.

Posted 01/05  at  03:30 AM
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