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Friday, January 06, 2012

Dynasty rankings: Top 25 fantasy players, age 25 or younger, 2012

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:17am

Dynasty leagues are among the most enigmatic in the entire land of fantasy sports, and I’m of the mind that they represent the game in its true form most successfully.

You must build from the bottom up, target depth and roster balance, and sell high and buy low when necessary. Most importantly, you must think years ahead, and make rebuilding projects and keenly timed all-ins at your own risk. An injury or physical or mental setback that sinks your top prospect in Double-A will hurt you much in the same way it would the Pittsburgh Pirates. No one knows how your minor league talent will shake up, and what steals you might find in your supplemental minor league draft. Welcome to the world of dynasty league baseball. It’s a ruthless, enticing, and incredibly time-consuming—and did I mention awesome?— form of the simplistic game we’ve all come to know and love.

Thus, Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett and I have put together our lists of the top 25 of players under the age of 25 at the present date (all players born on Jan. 6, 1986 or later are eligible). The parameters for last year’s rankings are the same in 2012. A refresher, from Josh Shepardson’s 2011 presentation of these rankings:

The league scoring we used as a guideline was a 5x5 roto league that includes two catchers, one corner infielder, one middle infielder one utility player, five outfielders, nine pitchers of any type (with a 1,250 innings pitched cap) and the other standard positions.


Because of the age limitations in these rankings, don’t be surprised when you don’t see Evan Longoria, Carlos Gonzalez, David Price or Adam Jones, to name a few (the first three graduated from this list in 2011). I think I speak for many of my fellow rankers when I say that the aforementioned four are all excellent dynasty league players, and Longoria in particular is among the top of the crop, even at age 26.

With that said, please do scrutinize, argue, react, agree/disagree, and question our rankings in the comments below (or at our respective e-mail addresses). We encourage all reactions, as always.

The e-mail addresses of the authors of these rankings:

Josh Shepardson: .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
Ben Pritchett: .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
Nick Fleder: .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

Rk     Ben Pritchett          Josh Shepardson            Nick Fleder

1      Stephen Strasburg      Justin Upton               Stephen Strasburg
2      Clayton Kershaw        Stephen Strasburg          Brett Lawrie
3      Carlos Santana         Clayton Kershaw            Justin Upton
4      Justin Upton           Felix Hernandez            Clayton Kershaw
5      Felix Hernandez        Mike Stanton               Desmond Jennings
6      Brett Lawrie           Bryce Harper               Starlin Castro
7      Andrew McCutchen       Mike Trout                 Mike Stanton
8      Mike Stanton           Brett Lawrie               Matt Moore
9      Mike Trout             Carlos Santana             Felix Hernandez
10     Jason Heyward          Eric Hosmer                Carlos Santana
11     Yu Darvish             Andrew McCutchen           Jesus Montero
12     Eric Hosmer            Desmond Jennings           Andrew McCutchen
13     Bryce Harper           Jay Bruce                  Eric Hosmer
14     Matt Moore             Matt Moore                 Bryce Harper
15     Jay Bruce              Madison Bumgarner          Mike Trout
16     Tommy Hanson           Buster Posey               Madison Bumgarner
17     Pablo Sandoval         Starlin Castro             Pablo Sandoval
18     Dustin Ackley          Matt Wieters               Jay Bruce
19     Mat Latos              Pablo Sandoval             Paul Goldschmidt
20     Buster Posey           Jesus Montero              Jason Heyward
21     Starlin Castro         Elvis Andrus               Michael Pineda
22     Jesus Montero          Jason Heyward              Buster Posey
23     Mike Moustakas         Dustin Ackley              Matt Weiters
24     Michael Pineda         Michael Pineda             Elvis Andrus
25     Desmond Jennings       Yovani Gallardo            Dee Gordon

       Next Five:             Next Five:                 Next Five:
26     Alex Avila             Mat Latos                  Craig Kimbrel
27     Madison Bumgarner      Brandon Beachy             Yovani Gallardo
28     Neftali Feliz          Jason Kipnis               Dustin Ackley
29     Cameron Maybin         Freddie Freeman            Mat Latos
30     Elvis Andrus           Dee Gordon                 Brandon Belt

       Five More:             Five More:                 Five More:
31     Paul Goldschmidt       Alex Avila                 Cameron Maybin
32     Brandon Belt           Tommy Hanson               Julio Teheran
33     Travis Snider          Yu Darvish                 Yu Darvish
34     Dayan Viciedo          Cameron Maybin             Daniel Hudson
35     Devin Mesoraco         Mike Moustakas             Jason Kipnis


Nick can be reached for questions, comments, or concerns via email: nick.fleder AT gmail DOT com.


Josh Shepardson said...

@Derek and MH

You both pretty much hit the nail on the head.

Posted 01/09  at  07:44 PM
matt said...

Fun list and I know I’m incredibly late to the party, but… I wouldn’t put too much weight on Strasburg’s numbers from last season. We’re only talking about 5 MLB starts and none of them went past the 6th inning. Strasburg didn’t face a single team that had an above average offense. Every opponent was well out of the race except for Atlanta, who was in a free fall. He didn’t pitch great against Atlanta.

The best argument for Strasburg over Kershaw has to be based on a traditional scouting assessment. I’d be hesitant to make that case. There’s lots of evidence that Kershaw is an true ace. Strasburg doesn’t have much room for error if he is going to pass Kershaw.

Posted 01/10  at  08:19 AM
Ben Pritchett said...

I want to also add that I will have Chris Sale in my revision Dynasty rankings that should be out next week or the week after.

We’ll see what other changes I will have in store. But let the Strasburg vs. Kershaw debate live on.

Posted 01/11  at  11:05 AM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Ben Pritchett

Chris Sale is a good name.  I’d say he’ll miss the cut for me, but not by much.  Not thinking I’m going to do a ton of tweaking, maybe a bit of shuffling.  I view Sale much in the same light as Darvish.  Lots of upside, but comes with questions.  His questions are different, but include: How will his stuff play as a starter? How will he do working through a lineup multiple times?  How will he do with the increase in workload? 

He has the repertoire to get batters of each handedness out.  He started in college, so it’s not as if he’s completely new to starting.  I like the pedigree, and like that he has had success against major league hitters, albeit, out of the bullpen.

Posted 01/11  at  08:57 PM
Aaron said...

Josh,

Just curious…do you still think David Price is the Chad Billingsley of the AL East?

Posted 01/27  at  02:53 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Aaron,

You’re mixing up my commentary with Jeff’s from last year.  I dug, because I didn’t remember making the comparison, and saw Jeff did.

Posted 01/28  at  01:11 AM
SIDA! said...

Just wanted to try one more time to get some projections from all of you.

Josh supplied projections for all four:

Jeremy Hellickson: 200 IP, 7.40 K/9, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Mat Latos: 205 IP, 8.70 K/9, 3.45 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

Matt Moore: 185 IP, 9.70 K/9, 3.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Yu Darvish:  200 IP, 8.75 K/9, 3.65 ERA, 1.18 WHIP


Nick put forth:

Jeremy Hellickson: ~6.5 K/9, 3.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 15 wins

Mat Latos: ~9 K/9, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 15 wins

Matt Moore: 10 K/9, 2.75 ERA, 14 wins, ~1.10 WHIP


Nick, do you care to put forth a projection for Yu Darvish?

Ben, do you care to put forth projections for all four?

Thanks

Posted 02/03  at  02:17 AM
SIDA! said...

bump…

Posted 02/29  at  11:48 PM
Nick Fleder said...

Darvish: 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 13 wins

I admire your persistence.

Posted 03/01  at  12:37 AM
Ben Pritchett said...

I didn’t know we were still commenting on this thread. Here ya go SIDA…

Jeremy Hellickson: 6.5K/9, 3.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 11 Wins

Mat Latos: 8.33 K/9, 3.54 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 15 wins

Yu Darvish: 8.1 K/9, 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 16 wins (This year, but look for much better next year. These are dynasty rankings ya know)

Matt Moore: 9.5 K/9, 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 18 wins
(Cy Young winner within the next five)

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Posted 03/02  at  12:03 PM
Ben Pritchett said...

Where are the Jeremy Hellickson lovers at? They are starting to call him “Shellickson”(@jasoncollette). He’s looked as bad as any pitcher in baseball this Spring. For those that didn’t listen, it’s time to sell before it’s too late.

Posted 03/24  at  05:30 PM
SIDA! said...

Just checking in to let you all know im still around and prepared to eat my crow should things not go my way.

I’m very happy with hellickson and annoyed with latos. However, he has outperformed gallardo and moore to date. Darvish looks to be the real deal.

Still way too early to brag or throw in the towel.

Posted 05/14  at  01:19 PM
SIDA! said...

Well, we are entering the back stretch now. Here are the current numbers.

Hellickson: 3.43 era and 1.31 whip
Darvish: 4.57 era and 1.46 whip

Latos: 3.94 era and 1.23 whip
Moore: 3.84 era and 1.39 whip

Cueto: 2.52 era and 1.21 whip
Gallardo: 3.79 era and 1.31 whip

Ben Pritchett wrote somewhere in this thread that he would be right and i would be wrong…and that you all would never hear from me again.

We ain’t at the finish line, yet…but it is quite clear you guys are getting smoked so far. Maybe, you all should offer me a writing gig on this site.

P.S. Travis Snider is making huge contributions for his patient fantasy owners.

Posted 08/07  at  12:43 PM
Ben Pritchett said...

Welcome back!

Hellickson/Darvish: Stupid argument. Hellickson has been bad this year. Sure his ERA isn’t that bad, but he’s realistically been a glorified middle reliever. At least a good MR has a better WHIP, ERA, and should be comparable in Ks. Five relievers have 70+ Ks. Hellickson has 76. Darvish, on the other hand, has 154 which ranks 6 IN ALL OF BASEBALL. His inflated ERA is due to his last three bad starts. Before that, he was sub-4. C’mon, nobody in their right mind would rather have Hellickson over Darvish in a dynasty and that’s why we ranked Darvish over Hellickson. And that’s why we will continue to do so.

Latos/Moore. Moore has been a disappointment, but like you show they are very comparable to each other even in wins and Ks. Moore’s age, left-handedness, and composure are what is so enticing and still make him a better dynasty play than Latos. But I think we can all agree that Matt Moore will slide a bit in next year’s rankings.

Cueto/Gallardo- I admitted that I thought Cueto was ineligible for these rankings (turned 26 in FEB) and he would have been in my top 30. That was an oversight by me. Notice that Gallardo is not in my top 30 nor would I have ever put him there. So we agree on this one.

I don’t know if the Travis Snider comment was tongue-in-cheek or not. I did rank Snider in my top 30, and I think we’ll see him find a lot of success in Pit.

Glad you came back though.

Posted 08/07  at  10:27 PM
SIDA! said...

Hellickson has been bad? A glorified middle reliever?

That is nonsense.

In 17 of his 20 starts, he has given up three or fewer runs. Darvish has given up 4 or more runs in 8 of his 21 starts. Granted, darvish gets his k’s, no denying that. But k’s aren’t the be all end all. Maybe ollie perez is still on your leagues waiver wire.

Darvish is averaging 6.1 innings per start.
Hellickson is averaging over 5.2 innings per start.

Hellickson would have to give up 22 er in his next 14 innings to match darvish’s era. Further, darvish’s era was already higher than hellickson’s before those starts you conveniently want to throw out.

Posted 08/08  at  12:29 PM
Brad Johnson said...

I actually own Ollie Perez in a linear weights league. Prior to a recent bad outing he had been very helpful.

smile

Both pitchers have been unimpressive and aren’t worth hoarding by any means. I see few dynasty/keeper formats where they could be viewed as strategic assets. Both possess a degree of upside though. Darvish more than Hellickson.

In any event, this argument doesn’t need to be happening. Everything is basically as expected within a normal variance.

Posted 08/08  at  01:59 PM
Ben Pritchett said...

I wonder if that SIDA guy still wishes he had Hellickson over Darvish. Darvish has been outstanding as @bchad50 (Josh Shepardson) pointed on his twitter: In Darvish’s last seven starts: 50.2 IP, 2.49 BB/9, 10.66 K/9 (4.29 K/BB), 26 hits allowed, 2.13 ERA, 0.79 WHIP. #AceMaterial #Rangers

His season WAR is up to 4.9 which is only behind Verlander, King Felix, and Gio for tops in baseball. He has 214 Ks on pace for 220+. He has 16 Ws, double that of Hellickson. His FIP and xFIP are on the opposite end of the spectrum to Hellickson. I’m done with this debate.

I’d also like to point out that I think our Strasburg ranking ahead of Kershaw seems like a decent call heading into future years. For all the flack we should have gotten, these two calls were actually solid.

Posted 09/21  at  08:30 AM
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