Monday, November 05, 2012
Early 2013 fantasy baseball top 300
Posted by Jesse Sakstrup at 5:02amWe are only a week removed from the culmination of the 2012 postseason, and while the offseason is still in it's most nascent stages, it is never too early to look towards the upcoming season. Below is my preliminary—and incredibly early—look at the top 300 fantasy baseball players for the 2013 season. Players are ranked by their expected value in standard 5x5 Rotisserie leagues. The list is slanted slightly towards 12-team leagues, but the ordering would stray very little in any other format.
Ranking Methodology
I have created my own regression-based projections for well over 300 players, looking at a profusion of peripheral data to arrive at projections that I feel are reasonable, break-even points for each player. Back in August, I outlined my personal method for valuing players, called 'roto points above average' (rPAA), a method that is both quantitative and objective (outlined here and here). I use the same methodology in these rankings, with the sole exception that I am using my own projections instead of projections generated by ZiPS, which were used in the August rankings.
Once all players have been projected, positional adjustments are then made to account for dearth and abundance. Once this is completed, the values are set and a rough outline is created. My rankings do not reflect the precise ordering of players by projected roto point total, as my own subjectivity does move players up or down when the difference between them is merely fractions of a point.
Understanding my personal biases
I tended to rank catchers, starting pitchers and relief pitchers slightly lower than where their projected roto point total suggested they should go. This is because these positions usually have less certainty with regards to health, and because the surface numbers of pitchers (ERA, WHIP, wins and saves) are more vulnerable to wild fluctuations due to random variation or team context rather than skill elevation or degradation. And with closers, roles are in constant flux, making values extremely mercurial, rendering closers more replaceable with shrewd waiver-wire manipulation.
Remember that while these rankings are reasoned and were contrived deliberately, I cannot claim to have dissected every player profile with a surgeon's precision. In the coming months, I will delve deeper into plate discipline statistics, pitch-f/x data, and more individualized qualitative analysis. And, as always, roster moves, playing time expectations, closer roles, and injury status will become more salient in the coming months, inevitably affecting subsequent rankings.
I will update this list periodically throughout the offseason, but for now this is what my initial top 300 for 2013 looks like. Comments, critique, suggestions and questions are welcome.
| Num | Player Name | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Cabrera | Det | 3B |
| 2 | Ryan Braun | Mil | OF |
| 3 | Mike Trout | LAA | OF |
| 4 | Matt Kemp | LAD | OF |
| 5 | Robinson Cano | NYY | 2B |
| 6 | Joey Votto | Cin | 1B |
| 7 | Albert Pujols | LAA | 1B |
| 8 | Carlos Gonzalez | Col | OF |
| 9 | Andrew McCutchen | Pit | OF |
| 10 | Justin Verlander | Det | SP |
| 11 | Jose Bautista | Tor | OF |
| 12 | Prince Fielder | Det | 1B |
| 13 | Josh Hamilton | Tex | OF |
| 14 | Adrian Beltre | Tex | 3B |
| 15 | Giancarlo Stanton | Mia | OF |
| 16 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | SP |
| 17 | Evan Longoria | TB | 3B |
| 18 | Hanley Ramirez | LAD | SS/3B |
| 19 | Ian Kinsler | Tex | 2B |
| 20 | Stephen Strasburg | Was | SP |
| 21 | Buster Posey | SF | C/1B |
| 22 | David Wright | NYM | 3B |
| 23 | Jose Reyes | Mia | SS |
| 24 | Dustin Pedroia | Bos | 2B |
| 25 | Troy Tulowitzki | Col | SS |
| 26 | Jason Heyward | Atl | OF |
| 27 | Justin Upton | Ari | OF |
| 28 | Starlin Castro | ChC | SS |
| 29 | David Price | TB | SP |
| 30 | Matt Cain | SF | SP |
| 31 | Adrian Gonzalez | LAD | 1B |
| 32 | Felix Hernandez | Sea | SP |
| 33 | Edwin Encarnacion | Tor | 1B |
| 34 | Matt Holliday | StL | OF |
| 35 | Curtis Granderson | NYY | OF |
| 36 | Adam Jones | Bal | OF |
| 37 | Bryce Harper | Was | OF |
| 38 | Cliff Lee | Phi | SP |
| 39 | Brandon Phillips | Cin | 2B |
| 40 | Cole Hamels | Phi | SP |
| 41 | Jered Weaver | LAA | SP |
| 42 | Joe Mauer | Min | C/1B |
| 43 | Jacoby Ellsbury | Bos | OF |
| 44 | Jay Bruce | Cin | OF |
| 45 | B.J. Upton | TB | OF |
| 46 | Billy Butler | KC | 1B |
| 47 | CC Sabathia | NYY | SP |
| 48 | Ben Zobrist | TB | 2B/SS/OF |
| 49 | Alex Rios | CWS | OF |
| 50 | R.A. Dickey | NYM | SP |
| 51 | Aramis Ramirez | Mil | 3B |
| 52 | Mark Teixeira | NYY | 1B |
| 53 | Roy Halladay | Phi | SP |
| 54 | Aaron Hill | Ari | 2B |
| 55 | Jason Kipnis | Cle | 2B |
| 56 | Ryan Zimmerman | Was | 3B |
| 57 | Craig Kimbrel | Atl | RP |
| 58 | Corey Hart | Mil | 1B/OF |
| 59 | Shin-Soo Choo | Cle | OF |
| 60 | Ian Desmond | Was | SS |
| 61 | Brett Lawrie | Tor | 3B |
| 62 | Yoenis Cespedes | Oak | OF |
| 63 | Jimmy Rollins | Phi | SS |
| 64 | Zack Greinke | LAA | SP |
| 65 | Chase Headley | SD | 3B |
| 66 | Madison Bumgarner | SF | SP |
| 67 | Pablo Sandoval | SF | 3B |
| 68 | James Shields | TB | SP |
| 69 | David Ortiz | Bos | DH |
| 70 | Chris Sale | CWS | SP |
| 71 | Paul Konerko | CWS | 1B |
| 72 | Aroldis Chapman | Cin | RP |
| 73 | Michael Bourn | Atl | OF |
| 74 | Gio Gonzalez | Was | SP |
| 75 | Allen Craig | StL | 1B/OF |
| 76 | Adam Wainwright | StL | SP |
| 77 | Melky Cabrera | SF | OF |
| 78 | Yadier Molina | StL | C |
| 79 | Jose Altuve | Hou | 2B |
| 80 | Hunter Pence | SF | OF |
| 81 | Yu Darvish | Tex | SP |
| 82 | Carlos Santana | Cle | C/1B |
| 83 | Shane Victorino | LAD | OF |
| 84 | Alex Gordon | KC | OF |
| 85 | Kris Medlen | Atl | SP |
| 86 | Derek Jeter | NYY | SS |
| 87 | Michael Morse | Was | OF |
| 88 | Mat Latos | Cin | SP |
| 89 | Carlos Beltran | StL | OF |
| 90 | Asdrubal Cabrera | Cle | SS |
| 91 | Paul Goldschmidt | Ari | 1B |
| 92 | Elvis Andrus | Tex | SS |
| 93 | Max Scherzer | Det | SP |
| 94 | Jonathan Papelbon | Phi | RP |
| 95 | Kenley Jansen | LAD | RP |
| 96 | Matt Wieters | Bal | C |
| 97 | Desmond Jennings | TB | OF |
| 98 | Freddie Freeman | Atl | 1B |
| 99 | Yovani Gallardo | Mil | SP |
| 100 | Eric Hosmer | KC | 1B |
| 101 | Dan Haren | LAA | SP |
| 102 | Wilin Rosario | Col | C/1B |
| 103 | Johnny Cueto | Cin | SP |
| 104 | Neil Walker | Pit | 2B |
| 105 | Jason Motte | StL | RP |
| 106 | Mark Trumbo | LAA | 1B/OF |
| 107 | Carl Crawford | Bos | OF |
| 108 | Jordan Zimmermann | Was | SP |
| 109 | Nelson Cruz | Tex | OF |
| 110 | Mike Napoli | Tex | C/1B |
| 111 | Ian Kennedy | Ari | SP |
| 112 | Josh Willingham | Min | OF |
| 113 | Ernesto Frieri | LAA | RP |
| 114 | Matt Garza | ChC | SP |
| 115 | Austin Jackson | Det | OF |
| 116 | Tim Lincecum | SF | SP |
| 117 | Matt Moore | TB | SP |
| 118 | Salvador Perez | KC | C |
| 119 | Sergio Romo | SF | RP |
| 120 | Dan Uggla | Atl | 2B |
| 121 | Victor Martinez | Det | C |
| 122 | Alexei Ramirez | CWS | SS |
| 123 | Andre Ethier | LAD | OF |
| 124 | Hiroki Kuroda | NYY | SP |
| 125 | Ichiro Suzuki | NYY | OF |
| 126 | Joe Nathan | Tex | RP |
| 127 | Doug Fister | Det | SP |
| 128 | Ike Davis | NYM | 1B |
| 129 | Glen Perkins | Min | RP |
| 130 | Miguel Montero | Ari | C |
| 131 | Jake Peavy | CWS | SP |
| 132 | Martin Prado | Atl | 3B/OF |
| 133 | Jayson Werth | Was | OF |
| 134 | Tom Wilhelmsen | Sea | RP |
| 135 | Lance Lynn | StL | SP |
| 136 | Alejandro De Aza | CWS | OF |
| 137 | Josh Johnson | Mia | SP |
| 138 | Matt Harvey | NYM | SP |
| 139 | Adam LaRoche | Was | 1B |
| 140 | Marco Estrada | Mil | SP |
| 141 | Brett Anderson | Oak | SP |
| 142 | Fernando Rodney | TB | RP |
| 143 | Alcides Escobar | KC | SS |
| 144 | Brian McCann | Atl | C |
| 145 | Chase Utley | Phi | 2B |
| 146 | Rickie Weeks | Mil | 2B |
| 147 | Carlos Gomez | Mil | OF |
| 148 | Nick Swisher | NYY | OF |
| 149 | Josh Rutledge | Col | SS |
| 150 | Jon Lester | Bos | SP |
| 151 | Will Middlebrooks | Bos | 3B |
| 152 | Tommy Hanson | Atl | SP |
| 153 | Drew Storen | Was | RP |
| 154 | Anthony Rizzo | ChC | 1B |
| 155 | Greg Holland | KC | RP |
| 156 | Tim Hudson | Atl | SP |
| 157 | Jeff Samardzija | ChC | SP |
| 158 | Ryan Howard | Phi | 1B |
| 159 | Shaun Marcum | Mil | SP |
| 160 | C.J. Wilson | LAA | SP |
| 161 | Coco Crisp | Oak | OF |
| 162 | Adam Dunn | CWS | 1B |
| 163 | Erick Aybar | LAA | SS |
| 164 | Grant Balfour | Oak | RP |
| 165 | J.J. Putz | Ari | RP |
| 166 | Angel Pagan | SF | OF |
| 167 | Michael Cuddyer | Col | 1B/OF |
| 168 | A.J. Burnett | Pit | SP |
| 169 | David Freese | StL | 3B |
| 170 | Danny Espinosa | Was | 2B/SS |
| 171 | Kyle Lohse | StL | SP |
| 172 | Nick Markakis | Bal | OF |
| 173 | Wade Miley | Ari | SP |
| 174 | Alex Rodriguez | NYY | 3B |
| 175 | Ben Revere | Min | OF |
| 176 | Jon Niese | NYM | SP |
| 177 | Jaime Garcia | StL | SP |
| 178 | Chris Davis | Bal | 1B/OF |
| 179 | Ryan Dempster | Tex | SP |
| 180 | Rafael Betancourt | Col | RP |
| 181 | Edwin Jackson | Was | SP |
| 182 | Mike Moustakas | KC | 3B |
| 183 | Joel Hanrahan | Pit | RP |
| 184 | Manny Machado | Bal | 3B |
| 185 | Josh Beckett | LAD | SP |
| 186 | Howie Kendrick | LAA | 2B |
| 187 | Jarrod Parker | Oak | SP |
| 188 | Alex Cobb | TB | SP |
| 189 | Matt Harrison | Tex | SP |
| 190 | Carlos Ruiz | Phi | C |
| 191 | Casey Janssen | Tor | RP |
| 192 | Ryan Vogelsong | SF | SP |
| 193 | Jason Kubel | Ari | OF |
| 194 | Jim Johnson | Bal | RP |
| 195 | Josh Reddick | Oak | OF |
| 196 | Anibal Sanchez | Det | SP |
| 197 | Brett Gardner | NYY | OF |
| 198 | Huston Street | SD | RP |
| 199 | Addison Reed | CWS | RP |
| 200 | J.J. Hardy | Bal | SS |
| 201 | Brandon Morrow | Tor | SP |
| 202 | Torii Hunter | LAA | OF |
| 203 | Chris Capuano | LAD | SP |
| 204 | Rafael Soriano | NYY | RP |
| 205 | Lorenzo Cain | KC | OF |
| 206 | Wilton Lopez | Hou | RP |
| 207 | Jason Hammel | Bal | SP |
| 208 | Justin Ruggiano | Mia | OF |
| 209 | A.J. Griffin | Oak | SP |
| 210 | Andrew Bailey | Bos | RP |
| 211 | John Axford | Mil | RP |
| 212 | Kendrys Morales | LAA | 1B |
| 213 | Everth Cabrera | SD | SS |
| 214 | Ted Lilly | LAD | SP |
| 215 | Marco Scutaro | SF | 2B/SS |
| 216 | Yasmani Grandal | SD | C |
| 217 | Chris Perez | Cle | RP |
| 218 | Drew Stubbs | Cin | OF |
| 219 | Todd Frazier | Cin | 1B/3B |
| 220 | Alfonso Soriano | ChC | OF |
| 221 | Homer Bailey | Cin | SP |
| 222 | Brandon Moss | Oak | 1B/OF |
| 223 | Steve Cishek | Mia | RP |
| 224 | Jesus Montero | Sea | C |
| 225 | Daniel Murphy | NYM | 2B |
| 226 | Jeremy Hellickson | TB | SP |
| 227 | Carlos Marmol | ChC | RP |
| 228 | Norichika Aoki | Mil | OF |
| 229 | Jon Jay | StL | OF |
| 230 | David Murphy | Tex | OF |
| 231 | Justin Morneau | Min | 1B |
| 232 | Phil Hughes | NYY | SP |
| 233 | Dustin Ackley | Sea | 2B |
| 234 | Dexter Fowler | Col | OF |
| 235 | Emilio Bonifacio | Mia | OF |
| 236 | Mariano Rivera | NYY | RP |
| 237 | Wandy Rodriguez | Pit | SP |
| 238 | Trevor Bauer | Ari | SP |
| 239 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Bos | C |
| 240 | Chad Billingsley | LAD | SP |
| 241 | Tyler Colvin | Col | 1B/OF |
| 242 | Pedro Alvarez | Pit | 3B |
| 243 | Mark Buehrle | Mia | SP |
| 244 | Jean Segura | Min | SS |
| 245 | Trevor Cahill | Ari | SP |
| 246 | Frank Francisco | NYM | RP |
| 247 | Drew Smyly | Det | SP |
| 248 | Cameron Maybin | SD | OF |
| 249 | Kevin Youkilis | CWS | 3B |
| 250 | Kelly Johnson | Tor | 2B |
| 251 | Andrew Cashner | SD | SP |
| 252 | Shelby Miller | StL | SP |
| 253 | Rajai Davis | Tor | OF |
| 254 | Hisashi Iwakuma | Sea | SP |
| 255 | Chris Young | Oak | OF |
| 256 | Colby Rasmus | Tor | OF |
| 257 | Mark Reynolds | Bal | 1B |
| 258 | Zack Cozart | Cin | SS |
| 259 | Starling Marte | Pit | OF |
| 260 | Logan Morrison | Mia | OF |
| 261 | Jonathan Lucroy | Mil | C |
| 262 | Tyler Clippard | Was | RP |
| 263 | Brandon Belt | SF | 1B |
| 264 | Michael Fiers | Mil | SP |
| 265 | Matt Joyce | TB | OF |
| 266 | Joaquin Benoit | Det | RP |
| 267 | Dayan Viciedo | CWS | OF |
| 268 | Bobby Parnell | NYM | RP |
| 269 | Mike Minor | Atl | SP |
| 270 | Omar Infante | Det | 2B |
| 271 | Jose Valverde | Det | RP |
| 272 | Tommy Milone | Oak | SP |
| 273 | Brian Wilson | SF | RP |
| 274 | Garrett Jones | Pit | 1B/OF |
| 275 | Carlos Quentin | SD | OF |
| 276 | Ryan Ludwick | StL | OF |
| 277 | Vinnie Pestano | Cle | RP |
| 278 | J.P. Arencibia | Tor | C |
| 279 | Cody Ross | Bos | OF |
| 280 | Jhonny Peralta | Det | SS |
| 281 | Kyle Seager | Sea | 3B |
| 282 | David Robertson | NYY | RP |
| 283 | James McDonald | Pit | SP |
| 284 | Russell Martin | NYY | C |
| 285 | A.J. Pierzynski | CWS | C |
| 286 | David Hernandez | Ari | RP |
| 287 | Jed Lowrie | Hou | SS |
| 288 | Andrelton Simmons | Atl | SS |
| 289 | Johan Santana | NYM | SP |
| 290 | Wilson Ramos | Was | C |
| 291 | Michael Brantley | Cle | OF |
| 292 | Junuchi Tazawa | Bos | RP |
| 293 | Jason Vargas | Sea | SP |
| 294 | Ryan Doumit | Min | C/OF |
| 295 | Justin Maxwell | Hou | OF |
| 296 | Lucas Harrell | Hou | SP |
| 297 | Sean Marshall | Cin | RP |
| 298 | Alex Avila | Det | C |
| 299 | Brandon McCarthy | Oak | SP |
| 300 | Jake McGee | TB | RP |
Jesse is a sociology major at Michigan State University, with a particular interest in social psychology. Contact him by email at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), or via twitter @JesseSakstrup.
Early indeed! Any fear a rookie like Billy Hamilton might be overlooked?