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Sunday, September 09, 2007First look at lucky RBIsPosted by Derek Carty at 7:45pmWhile clutch hitting is still a temperamental subject, it is relatively accepted now that it doesn't really exist... or at least only to a small degree. Tangotiger penned an interesting article on this subject and found that from 1999-2002, the extent of clutch hitting was 2 runs per year by Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada. Now that that's out of the way, let's see how we can use this. I thought, to start on this subject, we'll look at batting average with runners in scoring position. Similar to what we did with LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP, we'll look at batting average with runners in scoring position compared with regular batting average. What this should tell us is which batters have been getting more RBIs than they are entitled to. If a hitter is batting higher with runners on second or third than they do normally, that batting average should be expected to regress to his typical batting average. When this happens, less runners will be scoring when said batter comes to the plate and that batter's RBI rate will decrease accordingly. This, of course, is by no means a perfect metric. Batting average in itself is flawed, but I still thought it might be interesting to look at the results. In the future, once I can establish a good expected batting average metric (which will be partially dependent on the creation of a good system for home runs, which I will be working on over the next few weeks), this tool will be much more effective. For now, let's just see what we come up with. Lucky RBIsQualification: Batters need to have at least 300 at-bats, at least 70 at-bats with runners in scoring position, and a BA w/ RISP - BA greater than 0.40.
Unlucky RBIsQualification: Batters need to have at least 300 at-bats, at least 70 at-bats with runners in scoring position, and a BA w/ RISP - BA less than -0.40.
Concluding thoughtsAnd that's that. Again, once we can come up with an awesome system for home runs, we should be able to calculate this with much more certainty. For now, I just thought this would be a fun exercise. If you're going to try and use them immediately, make sure to carefully check the numbers. There is no way Akinori Iwamura should only be batting .157 with batters in scoring position, and there is no way Delmon Young should be up at .364. The .286 batting average with runners in scoring position for a guy like Matt Diaz, though, is much closer to what is should be. He is only on the list because his actual batting average is .344 — completely unsustainable. So be careful and these numbers can be pretty helpful. If nothing else, they are interesting and should lead to some interesting analysis down the line. Derek Carty is a 22-year old fantasy baseball analyst residing in New Jersey. In addition to writing for THTF, his work has appeared at Rotoworld (NBC), Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and Heater Magazine. In his two years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 four top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail. CommentsNext Post: A post mortem on a head to head league draft strategy>> <<Previous Post: Waiver Wire: National League | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
