First look at lucky RBIs

Sunday, September 09, 2007

First look at lucky RBIs

Posted by Derek Carty at 7:45pm

While clutch hitting is still a temperamental subject, it is relatively accepted now that it doesn't really exist... or at least only to a small degree. Tangotiger penned an interesting article on this subject and found that from 1999-2002, the extent of clutch hitting was 2 runs per year by Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada.

Now that that's out of the way, let's see how we can use this. I thought, to start on this subject, we'll look at batting average with runners in scoring position. Similar to what we did with LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP, we'll look at batting average with runners in scoring position compared with regular batting average.

What this should tell us is which batters have been getting more RBIs than they are entitled to. If a hitter is batting higher with runners on second or third than they do normally, that batting average should be expected to regress to his typical batting average. When this happens, less runners will be scoring when said batter comes to the plate and that batter's RBI rate will decrease accordingly.

This, of course, is by no means a perfect metric. Batting average in itself is flawed, but I still thought it might be interesting to look at the results. In the future, once I can establish a good expected batting average metric (which will be partially dependent on the creation of a good system for home runs, which I will be working on over the next few weeks), this tool will be much more effective.

For now, let's just see what we come up with.

Lucky RBIs

Qualification: Batters need to have at least 300 at-bats, at least 70 at-bats with runners in scoring position, and a BA w/ RISP - BA greater than 0.40.

LAST	FIRST	TEAM	H	AB	BA	H_RISP	AB_RISP	BARISP	BARISP-BA	HR	RBI
Bard	Josh	Padres	87	329	0.264	37	90	0.411	0.147	3	43
Garciaparra	Nomar	Dodgers	111	401	0.277	40	100	0.400	0.123	6	57
Hernandez	Ramon	Orioles	74	309	0.239	30	83	0.361	0.122	8	55
Willingham	Josh	Marlins	131	484	0.271	46	128	0.359	0.088	21	87
Sosa	Sammy	Rangers	95	382	0.249	40	124	0.323	0.074	18	79
Hart	Corey	Brewers	123	423	0.291	34	94	0.362	0.071	20	68
Young	Delmon	Devil Rays	166	564	0.294	55	151	0.364	0.070	12	81
Feliz	Pedro	Giants	125	492	0.254	37	116	0.319	0.065	18	65
Jones	Jacque	Cubs	105	395	0.266	37	112	0.330	0.064	5	54
Inge	Brandon	Tigers	108	446	0.242	33	108	0.306	0.064	14	64
Thome	Jim	White Sox	101	374	0.270	28	84	0.333	0.063	25	79
Brown	Emil	Royals	81	328	0.247	34	110	0.309	0.062	6	57
Encarnacion	Edwin	Reds	124	433	0.286	41	118	0.347	0.061	11	62
Ordonez	Magglio	Tigers	187	528	0.354	70	169	0.414	0.060	26	123
Hill	Aaron	Blue Jays	143	528	0.271	46	140	0.329	0.058	14	70
Molina	Bengie	Giants	123	440	0.280	46	136	0.338	0.058	17	77
Betancourt	Yuniesky	Mariners	136	482	0.282	42	124	0.339	0.057	9	57
Nady	Xavier	Pirates	108	375	0.288	34	99	0.343	0.055	17	65
Francoeur	Jeff	Braves	167	567	0.295	56	160	0.350	0.055	17	91
Teahen	Mark	Royals	136	475	0.286	43	127	0.339	0.053	6	54
Martinez	Victor	Indians	154	504	0.306	47	132	0.356	0.050	21	101
Young	Michael	Rangers	173	562	0.308	55	154	0.357	0.049	7	73
Fields	Josh	White Sox	74	312	0.237	23	81	0.284	0.047	18	56
DeRosa	Mark	Cubs	125	431	0.290	40	119	0.336	0.046	8	65
Mauer	Joe	Twins	106	360	0.294	33	97	0.340	0.046	5	53
Lugo	Julio	Red Sox	122	510	0.239	40	141	0.284	0.045	6	67
Lee	Derrek	Cubs	154	493	0.312	47	132	0.356	0.044	17	73
Upton	BJ	Devil Rays	127	405	0.314	39	109	0.358	0.044	23	76
Jeter	Derek	Yankees	179	563	0.318	46	127	0.362	0.044	9	62
German	Esteban	Royals	84	313	0.268	27	87	0.310	0.042	3	34

Unlucky RBIs

Qualification: Batters need to have at least 300 at-bats, at least 70 at-bats with runners in scoring position, and a BA w/ RISP - BA less than -0.40.

LAST	FIRST	TEAM	H	AB	BA	H_RISP	AB_RISP	BARISP	BARISP-BA	HR	RBI
Iwamura	Akinori	Devil Rays	118	414	0.285	11	70	0.157	-0.128	7	27
Amezaga	Alfredo	Marlins	100	377	0.265	13	85	0.153	-0.112	2	28
Blake	Casey	Indians	142	530	0.268	27	145	0.186	-0.082	15	66
Ausmus	Brad	Astros	76	329	0.231	14	90	0.156	-0.075	3	24
Lofton	Kenny	Rangers	96	317	0.303	13	57	0.228	-0.075	7	23
Weeks	Rickie	Brewers	77	333	0.231	14	86	0.163	-0.068	7	23
Eckstein	David	Cardinals	111	376	0.295	18	78	0.231	-0.064	2	26
Young	Chris	Diamondbacks	119	500	0.238	17	95	0.179	-0.059	28	58
Diaz	Matt	Braves	106	308	0.344	22	77	0.286	-0.058	12	42
Pierre	Juan	Dodgers	172	590	0.292	30	128	0.234	-0.058	0	36
Posada	Jorge	Yankees	150	449	0.334	40	143	0.280	-0.054	19	82
Jackson	Conor	Diamondbacks	106	380	0.279	21	93	0.226	-0.053	13	51
Wigginton	Ty	Devil Rays	104	378	0.275	24	108	0.222	-0.053	16	49
Uribe	Juan	White Sox	101	444	0.227	17	97	0.175	-0.052	16	55
Beltre	Adrian	Mariners	140	499	0.281	31	135	0.230	-0.051	23	86
Garko	Ryan	Indians	123	421	0.292	27	112	0.241	-0.051	16	52
Granderson	Curtis	Tigers	164	549	0.299	28	113	0.248	-0.051	20	68
Pedroia	Dustin	Red Sox	144	447	0.322	29	107	0.271	-0.051	6	45
Castillo	Luis	Twins	106	349	0.304	16	63	0.254	-0.050	0	18
Hafner	Travis	Indians	123	479	0.257	28	134	0.209	-0.048	21	87
Schneider	Brian	Nationals	84	365	0.230	18	99	0.182	-0.048	6	46
Ellis	Mark	Athletics	134	507	0.264	31	143	0.217	-0.047	17	60
Torrealba	Yorvit	Rockies	86	339	0.254	24	116	0.207	-0.047	6	39
Estrada	Johnny	Brewers	115	410	0.280	26	110	0.236	-0.044	8	44
Uggla	Dan	Marlins	136	559	0.243	31	155	0.200	-0.043	28	79
Johjima	Kenji	Mariners	125	431	0.290	31	125	0.248	-0.042	14	56
Jones	Chipper	Braves	149	452	0.330	37	128	0.289	-0.041	24	85
Matsui	Hideki	Yankees	142	487	0.292	36	143	0.252	-0.040	23	91

Concluding thoughts

And that's that. Again, once we can come up with an awesome system for home runs, we should be able to calculate this with much more certainty. For now, I just thought this would be a fun exercise. If you're going to try and use them immediately, make sure to carefully check the numbers.

There is no way Akinori Iwamura should only be batting .157 with batters in scoring position, and there is no way Delmon Young should be up at .364. The .286 batting average with runners in scoring position for a guy like Matt Diaz, though, is much closer to what is should be. He is only on the list because his actual batting average is .344 — completely unsustainable.

So be careful and these numbers can be pretty helpful. If nothing else, they are interesting and should lead to some interesting analysis down the line.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Sunday, September 09, 2007

First look at lucky RBIs

Lucky RBIs

Unlucky RBIs

Concluding thoughts

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