Monday, May 23, 2011
Hitch, ditch, or pitch: Week 8
Posted by Ben Pritchett at 5:11amThere was a time during my fantasy sports career when I was so statistically driven in my decision-making that I was quick to pull the trigger on guys. More often than not, this technique would eventually even itself out, but in the process made my team way too fluid and lacking in overall consistency.
I don’t advise over-managing, nor do I endorse the use of “streaming” strategies. Back then, I would genuinely fall in and out of love with a player in a matter of days. I guess you could call this my junior high fantasy phase. I was way too fickle and way too proud.
Today I’ve grown to view fantasy player management as a sort of art form. Anybody can invade the free agent list because ESPN alerted them before everyone else that a certain player’s status had changed. True skill is shown in preseason forecasting and in-season trading, especially.
I love to trade, but I must admit, I don’t get a lot of deals done during the course of the year. The reason every player is on my team is because at some point I fell head-over-heels for them. I find trading difficult in that I may really, really like a player on an opposing team, but I still have that love for all the guys on my own team, especially guys I think will continue to produce.
I say all this to prepare you for my next statement. It is time to pitch away Hanley Ramirez. I know what you readers are muttering to yourselves and even the thoughts you are formulating for the comments section. I also know that few have had the track record of success over the past few seasons as has Ramirez. Listen to my reasoning, and all you Ramirez owners out there can decide for yourselves what should be the next step you should take.
Pitch Away
Hanley Ramirez SS FLA - I know the season is still young, so some of these stats can still be a little misleading. Over the previous five seasons, Ramirez has been one of the best fastball hitters in the big leagues (13.0, 25.4, 26.3, 19.3, 15.7 wFB). This year Ramirez is hitting a pitiful -4.5 against the fastball. His ISOP, OPS, OBP, SPD, and BABIP are all the lowest of his career. He’s been caught stealing five times out of 13 attempts.
Please don’t confuse what I am saying. I don’t think it’s time to necessarily give up on Ramirez, especially seeing that he’s showing improvement this week particularly, but I think it would be foolish not to test the market. If you can get some premium players, I would give it some serious thought.
Normally, I would be hard-pressed to deal him under normal circumstances. I could see something like Starlin Castro and Shin-Soo Choo as being a deal I would give some serious thought to if I am a Ramirez owner.
Austin Jackson OF DET - Last year we saw his BABIP of .396 and thought there was no possibility he could continue to produce at a high level. Well, he did. Fast forward to 2011, and I think the story has changed. It’s time to start putting Jackson under a finer microscope.
I get that his speed will always help his value. He has a miserable .640 OPS highlighted by a .286 OBP. On CBS, I’ve seen him dealt for the likes of David Ortiz, Martin Prado, Neil Walker, and Aramis Ramirez. If I’m a Jackson owner and not desperate for steals, then I’m doing all those deals, and I’m very happy about it. If you need steals, I’d be willing to take the risk of trading Jackson for Jason Bourgeios.
Alfonso Soriano OF CHC - Soriano has never set the world on fire with his batting average or plate discipline. Additionally, I like to focus in this column on players that have struggled more than succeeded. One could argue that Soriano has succeeded this season with his 11 home runs and .263 batting average.
I can see huge holes still. He’s free swinging is getting even more free. He has only walked four times in 160 plate appearances. He is striking out at a near career-high rate of 27.6 percent. You’d have to go all the way back to the Yankee days to find a comparable rate.
I think he had little value entering 2011, and my feeling is that this 35 year old has as much trade value as he will the rest of the year. He might be a guy you will need to package with another player for a 2-for-1 deal. I would try a deal like Soriano and Zach Britton for Jay Bruce.
Pitch For
Carlos Santana C CLE - In all the craziness that has surrounded the success in Cleveland so far this season. Santana’s dismal start to the 2011 season has gotten overshadowed. Most of us fantasy writers at THT, myself included, thought of Santana as the best catcher prospect. Oliver, our player forecasting engine, loved him as well.
What is happening with Santana is my favorite part of playing fantasy. His value to some has changed. My value for him has not, but I know that I can now get him at a cheaper price. It’s like I just got a coupon. Folks, he is still an extremely gifted switch-hitting catcher.
He’s been very unlucky (.229 BABIP) and still maintained his power stroke. People forget this guy is still getting back into a groove since returning from his injuries. Look for him make huge strides over the coming weeks, and jump all over him if you can pry him away from his frustrated owner.
Shin-Soo Choo OF CLE - Noticing a theme? I guess it doesn’t make a lot of sense to endorse Indians players when the team as a whole is bound to cool down, right? Truth is, I don’t think people should discount the Indians, especially regarding their hitting.
What’s been so amazing about their run thus far has been that all this success has occurred without stellar performances from their two best players, Choo and Santana. Choo has been the most consistent performer in baseball over the past few years. You could generally chalk up a .290 AVG with 20 homers and 20 steals.
So far in 2011, he has underperformed. His strikeout rate is up, and his walk rate is down a bit. I think the key with Choo is to take advantage of owners’ lack of patience. The chances of Choo normalizing his stat line to career averages is far more likely than the opposite.
Mark Teixeira 1B NYY - It’s time to start grabbing the slow starter guys like Teixeira now. As the weather begins to heat up, so will his bat. Most of Teixeira's owners may have a grip on his career tendency of starting out slow, but in my remembrance, I don’t think I’ve seen him start with such ferocity in the power department at the beginning of a season (12 homers). It really makes me wonder what kind of season he will be able to put together over the course of the remaining four months. His average could be a little scary to his owners, especially the younger, less-experienced ones.
Hitch
Danny Espinosa 2B WAS - We all knew he had a power/speed skill set and yielded potential from the scarce 2B position. We also knew that he would struggle with his batting average. At least you could say he hasn’t disappointed.
His paltry .211 average is almost a copy of last season’s .214. He has struggled to get a decent BABIP so far in his career (.239 and .234 in 2010 and 2011, respectively). Part of me wonders how good Espinosa could be if he could get a little lucky.
My favorite thing about Espinosa isn’t that power/speed potential or even the 2B eligibility, it’s his clutch hitting. As a baseball fan in general, you have to love guys that produce in important situations. Danny does just that. He has 27 RBIs in the few times he’s actually hit the ball. That success has been due in large part to an incredible .346 BA and four home runs with runners in scoring position. Basically, he’s a gamer and a ball player.
Mark Reynolds 3B BAL - I must first say that I have never been a fan of Reynolds. I always felt that he represented way too much risk for his skill set. His strikeouts, in particular, were always a big red flag for me.
As we enter the third month of the 2011 season, I think Reynolds is finally worth rostering in deep mixed leagues as a potential David Wright replacement. He’s cutting down on his strikeouts so far in 2011, and he’s put together a two-home run, two-stolen base week, very reminiscent of 2009. If you can deal with the BA and/or have a need for a 3B, I feel like Reynolds has the highest upside available.
Brandon Belt 1B SFO - I don’t know why the Giants gave up on Belt so early. I also don’t know why Belt’s managers are being so quick to cut ties with him. Read these words carefully, Belt is still a must-own quantity in all but the deepest leagues. His call-up is looming, and I feel like you will lose out on him if you don’t make the move this week.
Since his demotion, Belt has reinvigorated his bat, and he will be getting his second chance very soon. My advice is to strike while you can still get him. If for some reason he’s owned, and you’re looking to the minors for an upside play, look to Anthony Rizzo, Jesus Montero, and Brett Lawrie as the next great group of call-ups, Rizzo especially.
Ditch
Jorge Posada C NYY - I read about his falling out with Girardi, and I heard about his apology. I still believe there’s a lot of underlying frustration here. With Jesus Montero raking in Scranton, I doubt that Posada has enough clout to continue to warrant playing time.
Coming into this year, I liked Posada’s fantasy potential since he was relinquishing the catching duties to Russell Martin. I stand corrected today, and I’m ditching Posada in all but AL-only formats. If a guy like Wilson Ramos, Hank Conger, JP Arencibia, or Jonathan Lucroy is still available, I’m ready to move on. Like Jeter in the last hitters’ Ditch section, there comes a time when somebody’s history with the team is just that, history.
Nick Swisher 1B NYY - Before too long you guys might start considering me a Yankee hater. I didn’t believe that Swisher was for real last season, and I was wrong. I don’t believe Swisher is for real this season, and I’m right. His success last year was largely BABIP driven, and so far in 2011, his ISO is .090. To give you a frame of reference, that’s below Emilio Bonifacio, Dexter Fowler, and Cliff Pennington. Ouch! There are other options out there. Swisher owners, it’s time to go a different route.
Ryan Raburn OF/2B DET- Owning Raburn meant that you believed his second half surge in 2010 could carry over into 2011. Needless to say, it really hasn’t. He’s too old to continue to roster him on the hopes that he can replicate a half-season’s success. I was a fan as a long-shot play, but if you are still rostering Raburn with guys like Espinosa on the free agent list then you are being very foolish and unwise with your roster management.
Raburn still has value in AL-only formats, but I could see potential for a playing time loss as Scott Sizemore begins to find success and other outfield options start to become available for the Tigers. If you are in desperate need of second baseman in a deep league, I’d look to Daniel Murphy or open a bench spot for future star Brett Lawrie.
Pritch slap for Week Eight, “Focus on the who, not the what.”
Ben Pritchett can be reached for questions, comments, gripes, or considerations at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or you could follow his whims on twitter @pritchettclan.
In the interest of full disclosure, I’ve always been a huge Swisher fan, both as a cheap fantasy option, and in “real life”. But doesn’t his high ld% (over 25% right now, top 10 in baseball) support a return to the high BABIP days of 2010. I would also assume his ISO regresses at least partially to career norms, no? I have been targeting him lately as a buy low guy - is it just wishful thinking from a longtime fan?