Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Rob Neyer, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT.  Derek Ambrosino
John Burnson Derek Carty Marco Fujimoto Eriq Gardner Matt Hagen Jonathan Halket Rob McQuown Troy Patterson Mike Silver Paul Singman Michael Street And here's the full roster. Got a question for our fantasy baseball experts? Email us:
Heater MagazineAdd 10 MPH to your fantasy team — see for yourself
HEATER MAGAZINE Winner, 2008 CBS Sportsline Fantasy League of Experts  Plus our Statistical Definitions Most Recent Comments
Top 10 prospects for 2010: Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals (8)
Top 10 prospects for 2010: Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers (4) Waiver Wire Offseason: NL (2) Acey-deucey (1) Waiver Wire Offseason: NL (12) Monthly Archives
November, 2009
October, 2009 September, 2009 August, 2009 July, 2009 June, 2009 May, 2009 April, 2009 March, 2009 February, 2009 January, 2009 December, 2008 November, 2008 October, 2008 September, 2008 August, 2008 July, 2008 June, 2008 May, 2008 April, 2008 March, 2008 February, 2008 January, 2008 December, 2007 November, 2007 October, 2007 September, 2007 August, 2007 July, 2007 June, 2007 May, 2007 Gear up for baseball season with Chicago White Sox tickets and New York Yankees tickets. LA Angels tickets, Houston Astros tickets, and Atlanta Braves tickets are hot sellers! You can get Boston Red Sox tickets, San Diego Padres tickets or Chicago Cubs tickets for your favorite baseball fan. Coast to Coast Tickets has the best MLB tickets like Minnesota Twins tickets, LA Dodgers tickets, Milwaukee Brewers tickets, New York Met tickets and St. Louis Cardinals tickets. Find premium Chicago Cubs tickets and other Chicago tickets at JustGreatTickets.com. Chicago Cubs Tickets Chicago Tickets  All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons License. |
Most Recent Posts
Saturday, April 05, 2008Hype machine: Johnny CuetoPosted by Derek Carty at 10:06amAfter the debut Johnny Cueto had and all the articles about it around the blogosphere, I wasn't going to pen one myself. However, there are some things to be cautious/worried about, so I felt it right to do so. If you are in a league with me where I own Mr. Cueto, please be advised that he is the next Pedro Martinez. Don't feel the need to keep reading. If you're not in such a league, I strongly advise you to read on. NumbersYEAR LEVEL LEAGUE AGE G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2005 RK GCL 19 13 6 43 8.0 1.7 56% 0.353 2006 A MDW 20 14 14 76.1 9.8 1.8 53% 0.254 2006 A+ FSL 20 12 12 61.2 8.9 3.4 36% 0.268 2007 A+ FSL 21 14 14 78.1 8.3 2.4 47% 0.302 2007 AA SL 21 10 10 61 11.4 1.6 38% 0.326 2007 AAA IL 21 4 4 22 8.6 0.8 34% 0.317 Cueto is obviously good. Even at just 21 years of age, he logged 161.1 innings across three levels in 2007. It wouldn't be surprising to see him pitch 180 or 190 innings in 2008. Another positive is his control. It has been fantastic, especially at Double-A and Triple-A. After these, though, there are some things to consider. First is the strikeouts. He certainly can get them, but the only time he posted an elite strikeout rate was in Double-A last year after having just an 8.3 K/9 earlier in the year at High-A. Not exactly what we would expect to see, and this inconsistency has to make us pause, at least for a moment, when evaluating him for 2008. The major problem with Cueto, though, is the ground ball rate. They were great at the lower levels, but fell off and were somewhat inconsistent from High-A on. In Double-A and Triple-A, they were downright bad. For most pitchers, this isn't a huge deal if they have strikeout and walk rates like Cueto does. What makes Cueto different is the team he belongs to and the home park he will play in. Great American Ballpark inflates home runs by 28 percent, the third highest figure among all major league parks. That could spell trouble for Cueto. All it will take is a little bad luck for him to appear to be greatly struggling, especially if his K/9 is under 8.00 or so. Even with neutral luck, homers will be a problem if he can't get that ground ball rate up. Given the irrationality the Reds tend to display at times, they could even demote Cueto if he starts to struggle. Cueto will one day be a very good pitcher. I'd just like you to temper your expectations for this season. If you currently own Cueto, now might be a good time to sell high. Trade valueHe received a lot of buzz after earning a rotation spot out of spring training over the likes of Homer Bailey. Now, after his seven-inning, one-hit, 10-strikeout, no-walk debut and all the positive write-ups about him, his value is sky high. Be very active over the next few days talking to the other owners in your league, gauging interest. Don't trade him for the sake of trading him—he is a quality pitcher—but if you can get a good, proven commodity, jump all over it. This advice goes double if a pitcher like Manny Parra or even Cueto's teammate Edinson Volquez is still available on the waiver wire to replace him. In keeper leagues, it really depends on the situation. I currently own him in a keeper league and will likely hold onto him. But if someone offers me another young, proven, quality player, I'd be foolish not to consider it. Also, I've run into one person who was worried about the effect Dusty Baker would have on Cueto, possible working him too hard. If you run into someone like that, simply direct them to this article. As long as they are open to logic, their fears should be alleviated. Further readingMike Fast, a recent addition to the THT team, wrote a very interesting analysis of Cueto's first outing using PITCHf/x data. It's currently being featured at THT Live; here's a link if you'd like to check it out. It's a good read. Kiley McDaniel at Saber-Scouting also had a nice writeup of Cueto's arsenal last week. Derek Carty is a 22-year old fantasy baseball analyst residing in New Jersey. In addition to writing for THTF, his work has appeared at Rotoworld (NBC), Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and Heater Magazine. In his two years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 four top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail. CommentsNext Post: Waiver Wire: American League>> <<Previous Post: Fantasy roundtable: Most valuable undrafted player |
