My first article of the year went up over at Rotoworld last night. It talks about a recent mock draft I did while using a "take pitching early" strategy, opposite of what I normally do.
KFFL Expert League
Victor Wang and I are currently participating in a draft for KFFL's Expert League. After each pick, each team discusses the reasoning behind the pick and it pops up over at KFFL. So far, we have Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, and Matt Kemp. Click here to continue keeping tabs on the draft and to read what we and the other owners are saying.
Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.
Comments
sam said...
I’ve given this strategy a little thought this year, since Lincecum’s health makes him underrated, Haren can be had in the 4-6th round, and Peavy/Beckett are decent bets to bounce back.
Posted 02/28 at 10:01 PM
dovif said...
I do not buy into the there is always starting pitching at the end of the draft line. I agree there are some SP who surprise us, but there are many OF/1B/C/RP etc who surprises us too. The facts are there is more SP (5) than OF (3), and 1B/2B (1). Therefore more seem to surprise
Likewise SP are not more injury prone and susceptable to slumps. Just check out 2B last year.
Roberts/Cano/ Figgins/ Upton/ Utley all struggle or got injured during the year
Since there are more SP, there is more likely that more of them struggle.
However on the FA list there are likely to be more “startable” SP type. But these player are more likely to explode and wreak your ERA and WHIP than a FA 2B.
So I think value is what we should look at. if Santana/Lincecum are available at the end of the 2nd round I am jumping and if everyone is jumping on power. I am going to wait to draft my 30HR OF, and 40SB OF at the end of the draft.
Posted 03/02 at 01:02 AM
Derek Carty said...
Dovif,
While some will argue like this, I believe that they are wrong.
My argument has nothing to do with riskiness or injuries, and it has nothing to do with more SPs breaking out, because I agree with you that this isn’t necessarily the case.
My argument is that SPs aren’t properly valued by the fantasy baseball marketplace, so it’s easier to get good ones later. This is a more efficient use of resources.
My argument is not that there are more 2007 Fausto Carmona-like breakouts where the guy comes out of nowhere, but rather there are more 2008 Scott Baker/Andy Sonnanstine-like breakouts where it’s simply a matter of a pitcher catching up to his peripherals. The market (in most leagues) still does not value these kinds of pitchers properly.
Because hitting stats are more stable than pitching stats, an owner who focuses mostly on surface stats is more likely to be correct when it comes to hitters than pitchers. Adam Dunn isn’t suddenly going to hit 5 HRs next year, and Juan Pierre isn’t going to hit 40, so simply putting Dunn down for 40 HRs and Pierre down for 2 will get you pretty close. You couldn’t have put Baker down for a 4.26 ERA coming into this year, though, or Sonnanstine down for a 5.85 ERA. You would have been way off, but looking at the peripherals would have gotten you very close.
Because of the inherent instability of pitching statistics, fantasy owners who focus on surface stats will value them far more incorrectly relative to hitters.
That is my argument. A smaller part is that pitchers are allowed to slide further down in a draft. Maybe 15 or 20 pitchers will get taken inside the top 10 rounds, but there are plenty after that who will provide great stats.
I’ve given this strategy a little thought this year, since Lincecum’s health makes him underrated, Haren can be had in the 4-6th round, and Peavy/Beckett are decent bets to bounce back.