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Tuesday, July 10, 2007Luck leaders and LIPSPosted by Derek Carty at 12:35pmNote: This post has been changed since it was originally published. All LIPS stats were changed from LIPS RA to LIPS ERA. -- D.C. 7/10/07 Last week, I examined lucky and unlucky pitchers using LOB%, BABIP, HR/FB and LD%. In the comments section of that post, several of you expressed interest in seeing a similar list using FIP-ERA. I thought this sounded like a great idea, except that I'm not a big fan of FIP. FIP uses home runs, which—as we talked about last week—is partially dependent on luck. If we look at the FIP leaders so far, just three pitchers in the majors come in under 3.00. No. 1 is Jake Peavy and No. 2 is Chris Young. These two happen to be No. 1 and No. 2 in HR/FB as well. So I've decided to use this concept, but substitute LIPS for FIP. LIPS —Luck Independent Pitching Statistics—was created by David Gassko, who wrote about it last December in his article DIPS, LIPS, and Hips. A big thanks to David for providing the LIPS numbers you see below. An improvement upon David's own DIPS 3.0, it uses strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches and batted ball numbers. They're not just any batted ball numbers, though. LIPS uses a league average line drive rate (since they are also luck dependent) and changes the other three accordingly. It also accounts for the luck that goes into home runs. LIPS - ERA luck leadersUnluckiest Requirements: Any pitcher with 8 or more starts and a LIPS - ERA less than -1.00
Luckiest Requirements: Any pitcher with 8 or more starts and a LIPS - ERA greater than 0.50
LIPS Top 25Here's a list of the Top 25 pitchers with at least 10 starts, sorted by LIPS ERA.
Thoughts about the dataA couple of guys really stick out when we look at the Top 25 list. Wandy Rodriguez comes in at No. 13. Definitely a guy who should be owned in every league. I picked him up in all of my shallower leagues a few days ago when I saw these numbers. Could regress a little, but so far he's been great. Mark Hendrickson at No. 22 surprised me a bit as well. I didn't realize how good he's been this year. Despite the worst GB% and GB/FB on the list, Chris Young still manages to show up in the Top 20. I expected him to come up somewhere between 20-25. He's the second luckiest shallow league guy though, so if you can grab someone like Cole Hamels or Jake Peavy (or really any number of guys ahead of him) you should do it. With the control troubles Tim Lincecum has been having, I didn't think he'd make the cut. He comes in at No. 18, the only guy on the list with a BB/9 north of 4.00. Play up the control issues to his owner. Even with a high BB/9 his LIPS is good. If it improves, look out. As I said last week, while Johan Santana and Jake Peavy are getting a little lucky, they are still a couple of the best pitchers in baseball. You should hang onto them unless you get an amazing deal. While Randy Johnson sits atop the LIPS leaders list, his 11.44 K/9 might not be sustainable. His control is good, though, and pitching in the National League, he should end up somewhere in the Post All-Star Break version of this list. Chad Gaudin and Brad Penny are the luckiest guys currently owned in most mixed leagues. Penny's peripherals are OK, but Gaudin needs to be traded... now. I'm very happy to see Mark Buehrle re-sign with the White Sox. If my Mets traded for him, I'd be very upset. He's been getting pretty lucky, and a move to a more pitcher-friendly park is now out of the question. Time to deal him. I love Jamie Shields. One would be hard-pressed to find a better place on any list than squeezed between Jake Peavy and Johan Santana. If his owner is worrying over his seemingly poor performances lately, get him. He can help lead your team to some serious pitching points. Don't get Steve Trachsel. He's near the top of the luckiest list, and he has the lowest LIPS (6.28) of any pitcher in our query. You should probably take any pitcher over him. Final thoughtsJust because a guy is on the "unlucky" list doesn't mean you should trade for him. It just means that his stock should be higher than it's at now. A guy can have a 5.00 ERA and be lucky because it should be 7.00. Doesn't mean you should pursue him for your team. I posted peripheral and luck stats next to each guy to for quick reference. If a guy is on the lucky list, make sure the place he should bounce back to is somewhere good. The same thing goes for the "lucky" list. A guy might be getting lucky but still be a great pitcher. You might be able to get an even greater pitcher for him, but don't feel he has to be moved. Check all of his numbers and make an educated decision. I plan on running something similar to this soon, only with WHIP. Might come tomorrow if I can get everything in order. That's all for now! Derek Carty is a 22-year old fantasy baseball analyst residing in New Jersey. In addition to writing for THTF, his work has appeared at Rotoworld (NBC), Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and Heater Magazine. In his two years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 four top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail. CommentsNext Post: The opportune moment>> <<Previous Post: Some bad advice from an "expert" | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
