Luck leaders and WHIP

Sorry for missing a couple of days this week. I’ve been having a little bit of writer’s block. I think today’s post should be interesting, though. We’ve been looking a lot at lucky pitchers lately, but we’ve never talked about WHIP. Today, we’re gonna take a look at the luckiest and unluckiest WHIPs.

A lot of people look at WHIP as a measure of a pitcher’s true ability. While WHIP, independently, is all right, it is far from perfect.

The concept behind WHIP is sound. It is a measure of how many batters the pitcher allows to reach base. The primary objective of a pitcher is to keep runners off base and subsequently prevent runs. The main flaw with WHIP, though, is that hits are included in the stat, and hits are largely influenced by luck.

Today, we’ll look at something I cooked up a while back, DIPS WHIP, which tries to correct the flaws with WHIP. Instead of using the pitcher’s actual hits, it uses his batted ball breakdown to determine his expected number of hits. In addition, DIPS WHIP uses a league average line drive rate and corrects the other three batted balls accordingly.

I considered including hit by pitch numbers—in addition to walks—because it puts batters on base and it is directly influenced by the pitcher. I decided against it, for now, mostly because actual WHIP doesn’t use it, and they didn’t mesh as nicely. It’s something I’ll probably change in the future.

DIPS WHIP – WHIP leaders

Luckiest

Requirements: Any pitcher with 10 or more starts and a DIPS WHIP – WHIP greater than 0.07

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	DIPS WHIP – WHIP
Haren	Dan	19	19	129.3	2.30	3.77	1.00	1.19	7.03	2.23	3.16	41.33	84.91	0.24	7.14	15.04	0.19
Guthrie	Jeremy	20	14	105.7	3.07	3.91	0.99	1.16	6.39	1.79	3.57	44.16	77.75	0.25	9.57	16.93	0.17
Sosa	Jorge	11	11	64.3	3.92	4.57	1.21	1.37	5.32	3.22	1.65	38.69	71.84	0.26	7.14	18.45	0.16
Marquis	Jason	18	18	105.3	3.67	4.65	1.26	1.42	5.30	3.50	1.51	47.46	78.56	0.25	10.62	16.71	0.16
Bergmann	Jason	12	12	66.7	4.32	4.17	1.20	1.35	6.89	3.65	1.89	32.64	69.77	0.24	8.33	15.66	0.15
Hernandez	Orlando	14	14	84.3	3.20	4.11	1.13	1.28	7.26	3.63	2.00	38.43	80.95	0.23	9.52	11.76	0.15
Young	Chris	18	18	109.7	1.97	3.65	1.02	1.17	8.78	2.95	2.97	30.88	83.33	0.25	2.72	15.70	0.15
Germano	Justin	11	11	64.7	3.90	4.82	1.13	1.27	4.59	1.81	2.54	47.12	72.51	0.26	9.59	15.24	0.14
Perez	Oliver	15	15	94.7	3.14	4.10	1.16	1.29	8.08	3.52	2.30	30.71	82.15	0.24	8.21	18.22	0.13
Trachsel	Steve	17	17	92.7	4.95	6.28	1.51	1.64	3.01	4.37	0.69	39.63	71.88	0.27	8.15	17.43	0.13
Maine	John	18	18	114.3	2.91	3.86	1.17	1.29	7.56	3.38	2.23	36.22	81.79	0.26	7.48	16.52	0.12
Verlander	Justin	17	17	109	3.14	3.98	1.15	1.27	7.93	3.22	2.46	42.62	80.49	0.26	8.40	16.45	0.12
Buehrle	Mark	18	18	123.7	2.98	4.20	1.08	1.20	5.17	1.67	3.09	43.34	82.91	0.26	10.14	15.23	0.12
Lowry	Noah	17	17	107.3	3.35	5.03	1.41	1.52	5.37	4.61	1.16	46.32	78.15	0.28	5.36	18.29	0.11
Bannister	Brian	13	13	80	3.71	4.44	1.24	1.35	4.84	2.70	1.79	39.16	71.28	0.28	3.54	16.29	0.11
Blanton	Joseph	20	20	142	3.36	3.82	1.11	1.22	5.51	1.58	3.48	47.15	73.63	0.27	7.19	18.66	0.11
Garland	Jon	18	18	121.7	3.85	4.64	1.26	1.36	3.92	2.59	1.51	43.70	72.14	0.27	6.34	22.46	0.10
Hudson	Tim	20	20	129	3.35	4.00	1.19	1.29	5.51	2.09	2.63	60.73	72.18	0.30	4.82	16.07	0.10
Wang	Chien-Ming	16	16	110.3	3.43	4.43	1.20	1.30	4.40	2.20	2.00	57.51	74.07	0.28	7.32	17.65	0.10
Glavine	Tom	20	20	123.7	4.15	5.17	1.30	1.40	4.22	2.91	1.45	42.65	74.83	0.27	9.93	21.01	0.10
Gorzelanny	Thomas	19	19	125	3.24	4.36	1.24	1.33	5.90	2.59	2.28	42.57	78.77	0.28	6.49	17.46	0.09
Lackey	John	19	19	126.7	2.98	4.05	1.16	1.25	7.32	2.34	3.12	43.68	81.21	0.28	7.97	20.26	0.09
Marcum	Shaun	25	12	88	3.68	3.83	1.17	1.25	7.57	2.97	2.55	39.52	83.54	0.24	15.38	17.12	0.08
Gaudin	Chad	19	19	113.3	3.18	4.55	1.42	1.50	5.56	4.21	1.32	52.22	78.98	0.29	4.90	18.73	0.08
Penny	Brad	18	18	116.7	2.39	4.04	1.19	1.27	6.33	2.62	2.41	51.59	80.41	0.30	3.03	19.21	0.08
Cain	Matthew	18	18	114.7	3.53	4.36	1.35	1.43	6.59	4.24	1.56	37.57	76.09	0.29	4.70	16.76	0.08
Zito	Barry	18	18	104.7	4.90	4.68	1.45	1.52	5.68	4.47	1.27	40.66	69.99	0.28	8.59	21.57	0.07
Hill	Richard	17	17	104	3.81	3.81	1.14	1.21	8.31	2.77	3.00	36.46	80.97	0.26	14.75	21.92	0.07
Cook	Aaron	19	19	125	4.68	4.85	1.39	1.46	2.66	2.45	1.09	56.98	70.28	0.29	11.32	18.82	0.07
Looper	Braden	16	16	95.3	4.72	4.75	1.38	1.45	4.06	3.02	1.34	48.92	69.19	0.29	9.28	22.80	0.07
Hirsh	Jason	17	17	101	4.90	4.57	1.35	1.42	5.88	3.74	1.57	29.75	71.80	0.26	9.88	18.21	0.07
Peavy	Jacob	18	18	119	2.19	3.41	1.06	1.13	9.45	2.57	3.68	45.57	80.44	0.29	2.75	16.99	0.07
Wakefield	Tim	18	18	112.7	4.47	4.71	1.34	1.41	5.11	3.36	1.52	39.56	73.88	0.27	10.49	22.01	0.07
Lilly	Ted	19	19	120.7	3.51	3.61	1.06	1.13	7.83	2.09	3.75	35.01	74.47	0.27	8.23	16.29	0.07

Unluckiest

Requirements: Any pitcher with 10 or more starts and a DIPS WHIP – WHIP less than -0.07

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	DIPS WHIP – WHIP
Seo	Jae	11	10	52	8.13	4.74	1.92	1.54	4.85	2.77	1.75	37.88	64.33	0.39	13.41	21.00	-0.38
Duke	Zachary	17	17	93.3	5.79	5.18	1.75	1.48	3.18	2.12	1.50	51.42	69.74	0.38	10.00	20.83	-0.27
Jackson	Edwin	17	16	74.7	7.23	4.62	1.89	1.63	7.83	5.06	1.55	42.45	65.32	0.38	11.83	19.05	-0.26
Fossum	Casey	31	10	67	7.52	4.51	1.79	1.54	5.78	2.96	1.95	47.97	64.94	0.37	17.11	22.31	-0.25
Garcia	Freddy	11	11	58	5.90	4.32	1.60	1.38	7.76	2.95	2.63	39.13	73.89	0.36	17.39	25.79	-0.22
Colon	Bartolo	14	14	79.7	6.44	4.37	1.62	1.41	6.67	2.49	2.68	38.60	67.86	0.36	12.93	17.69	-0.21
Weaver	Jeff	12	12	59.7	6.34	4.83	1.64	1.44	4.83	2.26	2.13	37.10	62.37	0.36	5.21	18.67	-0.20
Padilla	Vicente	15	15	80.7	6.69	4.80	1.81	1.62	5.24	3.90	1.34	47.64	67.81	0.35	12.90	22.82	-0.19
Olsen	Scott	19	19	103.3	5.23	4.31	1.66	1.51	7.14	4.35	1.64	39.70	73.00	0.34	10.16	22.65	-0.15
Millwood	Kevin	16	16	87.3	5.77	4.46	1.64	1.50	6.90	3.61	1.91	44.22	70.88	0.34	12.26	19.53	-0.14
Johnson	Randy	10	10	56.7	3.81	2.82	1.15	1.01	11.44	2.06	5.54	40.29	76.01	0.34	12.50	18.75	-0.14
Simontacchi	Jason	12	12	66.3	6.11	4.81	1.58	1.45	5.16	2.58	2.00	36.05	67.02	0.35	9.80	19.83	-0.13
Santana	Ervin	18	18	104	5.97	4.34	1.54	1.41	7.18	3.29	2.18	34.32	72.70	0.31	14.65	18.66	-0.13
Kazmir	Scott	20	20	118.3	4.18	4.03	1.56	1.43	9.28	4.72	1.97	42.77	77.82	0.35	9.16	15.38	-0.13
Hernandez	Felix	15	15	91	3.66	3.19	1.38	1.25	8.51	2.47	3.44	58.74	77.72	0.36	13.56	17.45	-0.13
Tejeda	Robinson	17	17	86	6.70	4.93	1.74	1.62	6.59	5.13	1.29	33.22	68.86	0.32	11.35	14.63	-0.12
Wells	David	17	17	96	4.31	4.25	1.46	1.34	5.16	2.34	2.20	40.44	75.19	0.33	8.00	20.00	-0.12
Davis	Doug	19	19	111.7	4.19	4.77	1.73	1.61	6.37	5.00	1.27	45.96	79.85	0.34	9.09	20.16	-0.12
Perez	Odalis	19	19	101.3	5.68	5.26	1.64	1.52	4.62	3.20	1.44	43.30	67.95	0.34	7.58	19.62	-0.12
Schilling	Curt	15	15	94.3	4.20	4.03	1.36	1.25	6.77	1.81	3.74	39.22	75.97	0.33	9.30	17.68	-0.11
Capuano	Chris	16	16	82	5.16	3.84	1.54	1.44	7.68	3.95	1.94	44.84	70.70	0.33	10.00	18.08	-0.10
Sabathia	Carsten	20	20	140.3	3.78	3.50	1.20	1.10	8.02	1.28	6.25	42.51	75.70	0.33	9.94	16.67	-0.10
Lieber	Jon	14	12	78	4.73	4.03	1.45	1.35	6.23	2.54	2.45	48.45	70.62	0.34	9.46	27.00	-0.10
Baek	ChaSeung	11	11	64.3	5.74	4.13	1.41	1.31	6.44	1.82	3.54	36.99	61.92	0.34	6.74	24.22	-0.10
Belisle	Matt	18	18	109.3	5.02	3.78	1.39	1.29	6.01	1.98	3.04	44.32	69.20	0.33	11.11	21.41	-0.10
Wolf	Randy	18	18	102.7	4.73	4.00	1.45	1.35	8.24	3.42	2.41	40.45	71.63	0.33	8.13	18.81	-0.10
Arroyo	Bronson	19	19	118.7	4.78	4.05	1.47	1.37	5.92	2.96	2.00	34.45	70.90	0.33	6.40	21.59	-0.10
Baker	Timothy	10	10	58	5.43	3.90	1.33	1.24	6.83	2.02	3.38	38.46	64.90	0.32	11.27	24.73	-0.09
Bush	David	18	17	107.3	4.86	4.11	1.33	1.24	6.71	2.01	3.33	45.05	67.41	0.33	8.70	20.52	-0.09
Byrd	Paul	16	16	102	4.41	4.16	1.34	1.25	4.68	0.53	8.83	38.03	74.54	0.33	8.92	20.21	-0.09
Bonser	Boof	18	18	103.3	4.70	4.19	1.49	1.40	8.27	3.57	2.32	44.09	75.74	0.33	12.82	16.56	-0.09
Westbrook	Jake	10	10	53.3	6.08	4.24	1.54	1.46	5.40	3.88	1.39	52.91	63.00	0.32	12.77	19.55	-0.08
Hamels	Colbert	19	19	124.7	3.83	3.22	1.24	1.16	9.10	2.24	4.06	38.51	81.50	0.31	14.19	17.55	-0.08
delaRosa	Jorge	19	18	106.3	5.16	4.97	1.56	1.48	5.50	3.13	1.76	40.27	72.10	0.33	9.52	18.75	-0.08
Maroth	Mike	13	13	78.3	5.06	5.55	1.66	1.58	3.22	3.79	0.85	43.01	79.46	0.31	14.42	19.86	-0.08
Fogg	Josh	16	15	87.3	5.36	4.85	1.55	1.48	5.56	3.09	1.80	38.41	71.66	0.32	9.92	22.73	-0.07
Vargas	Claudio	17	15	83.7	4.52	4.46	1.49	1.42	7.85	3.76	2.09	32.31	82.02	0.31	13.93	21.29	-0.07

DIPS WHIP Top 25

Here’s a list of the Top 25 pitchers with at least 10 starts, sorted by DIPS WHIP.

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	DIPS WHIP – WHIP
Johnson	Randy	10	10	56.7	3.81	2.82	1.15	1.01	11.44	2.06	5.54	40.29	76.01	0.34	12.50	18.75	-0.14
Santana	Johan	19	19	128	2.60	3.32	1.02	1.07	9.35	2.18	4.29	34.44	87.91	0.26	10.83	16.52	0.05
Shields	James	19	19	135.7	3.98	3.35	1.05	1.08	7.83	1.33	5.90	40.82	75.71	0.27	13.50	14.85	0.03
Sabathia	Carsten	20	20	140.3	3.78	3.50	1.20	1.10	8.02	1.28	6.25	42.51	75.70	0.33	9.94	16.67	-0.10
Bedard	Erik	20	20	128.7	3.22	3.10	1.10	1.11	10.91	2.66	4.11	44.97	78.95	0.30	12.17	17.34	0.01
Lilly	Ted	19	19	120.7	3.51	3.61	1.06	1.13	7.83	2.09	3.75	35.01	74.47	0.27	8.23	16.29	0.07
Peavy	Jacob	18	18	119	2.19	3.41	1.06	1.13	9.45	2.57	3.68	45.57	80.44	0.29	2.75	16.99	0.07
Vazquez	Javier	18	18	121.7	3.77	3.66	1.08	1.14	8.43	2.07	4.07	37.35	75.54	0.27	10.97	14.91	0.06
Guthrie	Jeremy	20	14	105.7	3.07	3.91	0.99	1.16	6.39	1.79	3.57	44.16	77.75	0.25	9.57	16.93	0.17
Hamels	Colbert	19	19	124.7	3.83	3.22	1.24	1.16	9.10	2.24	4.06	38.51	81.50	0.31	14.19	17.55	-0.08
Beckett	Josh	16	16	102	3.44	3.42	1.14	1.17	8.12	1.85	4.38	47.02	72.33	0.30	5.66	14.75	0.03
Smoltz	John	17	17	105.7	3.07	3.43	1.23	1.17	8.18	1.87	4.36	44.13	80.40	0.32	7.89	18.77	-0.06
Young	Chris	18	18	109.7	1.97	3.65	1.02	1.17	8.78	2.95	2.97	30.88	83.33	0.25	2.72	15.70	0.15
Haren	Dan	19	19	129.3	2.30	3.77	1.00	1.19	7.03	2.23	3.16	41.33	84.91	0.24	7.14	15.04	0.19
Bonderman	Jeremy	17	17	113	3.50	3.48	1.17	1.19	8.20	1.91	4.29	44.81	76.79	0.30	9.60	15.98	0.02
Buehrle	Mark	18	18	123.7	2.98	4.20	1.08	1.20	5.17	1.67	3.09	43.34	82.91	0.26	10.14	15.23	0.12
Rodriguez	Wandy	17	17	104.7	3.87	3.54	1.18	1.20	7.74	2.24	3.46	42.21	74.41	0.29	10.00	17.25	0.02
Escobar	Kelvim	17	17	115.3	3.04	3.57	1.14	1.20	7.34	2.50	2.94	44.24	75.44	0.29	4.84	16.37	0.06
Hill	Richard	17	17	104	3.81	3.81	1.14	1.21	8.31	2.77	3.00	36.46	80.97	0.26	14.75	21.92	0.07
Sheets	Ben	19	19	119.3	3.39	3.74	1.16	1.21	6.79	1.89	3.60	36.76	79.66	0.27	9.15	18.04	0.05
Blanton	Joseph	20	20	142	3.36	3.82	1.11	1.22	5.51	1.58	3.48	47.15	73.63	0.27	7.19	18.66	0.11
Harang	Aaron	20	20	133.7	3.70	3.92	1.20	1.23	8.08	2.49	3.24	40.51	73.71	0.29	6.96	17.97	0.03
Matsuzaka	Daisuke	19	19	125.7	3.94	3.50	1.27	1.23	8.95	2.86	3.13	37.29	75.82	0.31	9.15	19.44	-0.04
Towers	Josh	16	10	71	5.07	4.15	1.30	1.24	6.85	1.39	4.91	44.40	70.33	0.31	14.63	20.25	-0.06
Hendrickson	Mark	22	10	80.3	3.92	3.74	1.27	1.24	7.39	2.58	2.87	46.58	74.94	0.31	11.54	19.76	-0.03

Thoughts about the data

As expected, nearly all of the guys on the “Luckiest” list have unsustainably low BABIPs, and nearly all of the guys on the “Unluckiest” list have high BABIPs.

While Dan Haren, Jeremy Guthrie and Chris Young are at the top of the “Luckiest” list, this is only because their WHIPs are ridiculous… around 1.00. They will increase, but they should still be quite good.

Oliver Perez has been a nice surprise for Mets fans this year, but he is getting a little lucky with his WHIP. This is mostly because he’s still walking a fair number of batters. Hopefully he’ll find a way to limit them in years to come.

Mentioned in the LIPS ERA edition of “Luck Leaders,” Steve Trachsel also appears at the bottom of the DIPS WHIP list. Worst LIPS ERA. Worst DIPS WHIP. I shouldn’t have to say it, but he’s just been pitching terribly.

Randy Johnson has been simply fantastic this year. He’s still in small sample size territory, but his 1.15 WHIP is actually unlucky. It should be 1.01 (!)

While Ervin Santana has been getting unlucky with LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP, his expected level is still not very good. Continue staying away, as I’ve stressed all year.

Despite a sub-7.00 K/9, Curt Schilling still manages a 1.25 DIPS WHIP. If he can raise the Ks upon his return, he could be a nice bargain for those who trade for him soon.

Scott Kazmir’s 1.56 WHIP is bad, but his 1.43 DIPS WHIP isn’t much better. He really has to find a way to stop walking so many guys.

My man Felix Hernandez is getting unlucky, too. Should be sporting a 1.25 WHIP. He’s an interesting guy, and one I’ll probably look at more in-depth in the next week or two.

Cole Hamels appears on the unlucky list, just as he did in our LIPS ERA post. He has a history of injuries in the minors, but if he can remain healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the game.

Wandy Rodriguez’s WHIP is for real. He could still regress a little, but he needs to be owned in all leagues until—if, really—this happens.

Concluding thoughts

Just some things for future reference.

In the future, I will no longer be referring to actual ground ball percentage. I will instead be referring to expected ground ball percentage, or xGB%, which is what a pitcher’s ground ball percentage would be given a league average line drive rate. This number appears in the tables above. The difference between GB% and xGB% won’t be huge for most guys, but it will be slightly more accurate. Thought I should tell you this in case you’re ever wondering why it doesn’t match the ground ball rate on the THT Player Pages.

Also, sorry about the names given in the tables. Carsten Sabathia. Colbert Hamels. Richard Hill. I’ve been meaning to fix these in my database, but I forgot about it until today and am running a little short on time. Regardless, I think you’ll be able to figure out who I’m talking about. They’ll be fixed next time, for sure.