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December 3, 2008
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Tuesday, June 10, 2008Luck leaders: Week 10Posted by Derek Carty at 1:02pmLast year, we ran an occasional column here entitled "Luck leaders." I realized that I haven't been doing it this year, so I thought it would be a good idea to start this week. These numbers don't change much from week-to-week, so maybe we'll make this a biweekly thing. We'll look at starting pitchers in four categories to determine which have been aided the most by luck and which have been hurt by it. For this installment, a pitcher must have made at least eight starts to be eligible. If you're not familiar with some of the indicators we'll be using, here is a brief primer. Luck indicator primerBatting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP): It's been known for a while now that major league pitchers don't have a whole lot of influence on how many hits they allow on balls that are put into play. Pitchers who are showing abnormally high or abnormally low BABIPs should be expected to regress going forward. League average is generally around .300. Left on Base Percentage (LOB): This measures how many runners who reach base off a given pitcher actually come around to score. This isn't influenced by luck quite as heavily as BABIP, and some pitchers do consistently put up LOB percentages above or below league average, but those significantly higher or lower without a track record of it are likely in for some regression. League average is generally around 72 percent. Home Run per Fly ball Rate (HR/FB): Pitchers have a lot of control over the percentage of fly balls they give up, but they don't have very much control over how many of these fly balls clear the fences for home runs. As with BABIP and LOB, pitchers above or below league average are due for regression. League average is generally around 11 percent. Luck Independent ERA (LIPS ERA): LIPS ERA was created by David Gassko; click here for a full explanation. LIPS ERA essentially shows what a pitcher's ERA would look like given neutral luck. It takes into account only the things that aren't influenced by a pitcher's defense (i.e., strikeouts, walks, batted ball distribution) and adjusts to give the pitcher a league average line drive rate (another stat a pitcher has little control over) and HR/FB. Pitchers who appear on this list will likely be on at least one of the other lists. If you're curious why one isn't, it's likely because he's receiving bad luck in two (or maybe all three) categories but not enough in any to warrant inclusion on one of these lists. Additional notesPlease be aware that relief pitchers don't have to follow all of these rules, so don't hold them to these standards. For this reason (and because most relievers aren't ownable in many leagues), only starting pitchers are included on these lists. I know that there are a lot of numbers here, but hope I've organized this well enough that you can just skim down the lists or simply do a search for pitchers you own. If you think there's a better way of doing this, feel free to let me know. Batting Average on Balls in PlayUnucky LAST FIRST ERA LIPS ERA BABIP Arroyo Bronson 5.74 3.56 0.378 Miller Andrew M. 5.65 4.36 0.376 Snell Ian D. 5.65 4.66 0.374 Buchholz Clay 5.53 3.32 0.365 Washburn Jarrod 6.56 4.19 0.351 Pelfrey Mike A. 4.65 5.18 0.351 Hernandez Livan 5.32 4.88 0.351 Sabathia C.C. 4.81 3.70 0.349 McGowan Dustin M. 4.26 3.94 0.347 Zito Barry 5.87 5.29 0.345 Jimenez Ubaldo 5.43 4.30 0.344 Chico Matthew B. 6.19 4.61 0.344 Millwood Kevin 4.65 4.08 0.343 Blackburn Nick N. 3.94 4.40 0.342 Batista Miguel 6.06 5.24 0.342 Pettitte Andy 4.99 4.07 0.341 Marquis Jason 5.02 4.59 0.338 Sonnanstine Andy 4.88 3.81 0.337 Burnett A.J. 4.98 3.34 0.336 Lucky LAST FIRST ERA LIPS ERA BABIP Galarraga Armando 3.76 4.12 0.186 Floyd Gavin C. 3.15 4.93 0.199 Marcum Shaun M. 2.52 3.64 0.215 Dempster Ryan 2.90 4.22 0.221 Olsen Scott M. 3.44 4.90 0.223 Saunders Joe 2.63 4.53 0.237 Matsuzaka Daisuke 2.53 4.18 0.238 Hamels Cole 3.36 3.55 0.245 Feldman Scott 4.31 4.53 0.247 Contreras Jose 2.76 4.06 0.249 Bush David T. 5.85 4.71 0.251 Redding Tim 4.15 4.89 0.253 Wellemeyer Todd 2.92 3.85 0.254 Santana Ervin R. 3.02 3.42 0.255 Duchscherer Justin 2.32 4.23 0.255 Byrd Paul 4.46 4.68 0.256 Wainwright Adam P. 3.14 3.54 0.259 Left on Base PercentageUnlucky LAST FIRST ERA LIPS ERA LOB% Bonser Boof 6.00 4.38 53% Tomko Brett 6.34 3.77 58% Kennedy Ian Patrick 7.41 5.48 58% Sampson Chris K. 5.56 4.53 59% Trachsel Steve 8.39 6.23 60% Silva Carlos 5.96 4.56 61% Badenhop Burke 6.38 4.49 62% Ponson Sidney 3.88 4.64 63% Washburn Jarrod 6.56 4.19 63% Sonnanstine Andy 4.88 3.81 63% Hendrickson Mark 5.33 4.34 64% Jimenez Ubaldo 5.43 4.30 64% Buehrle Mark 4.80 4.29 65% Buchholz Clay 5.53 3.32 65% Penny Brad 5.45 4.75 65% Burnett A.J. 4.98 3.34 65% Zito Barry 5.87 5.29 65% Bannister Brian P. 4.98 3.98 65% Verlander Justin B. 5.05 4.76 65% Wang Chien-Ming 4.57 4.68 65% Gorzelanny Tom 6.83 6.19 65% Miller Andrew M. 5.65 4.35 65% Kendrick Kyle 4.87 4.97 66% Mussina Mike 4.01 4.11 66% Lucky LAST FIRST ERA LIPS ERA LOB% Volquez Edison 1.32 3.42 88% Sheets Ben 2.62 3.70 83% Peavy Jake 2.91 3.01 83% Santana Johan 3.08 3.40 82% Danks John W. 2.88 3.90 82% Marcum Shaun M. 2.52 3.64 82% Litsch Jesse 3.45 4.33 82% Matsuzaka Daisuke 2.53 4.18 81% Hernandez Felix A. 3.07 3.88 80% Lincecum Tim 2.15 3.77 80% Saunders Joe 2.63 4.53 80% Backe Brandon 4.66 4.65 80% Greinke Zack Z. 3.56 4.00 79% Zambrano Carlos 3.01 4.13 79% Perez Odalis 4.09 4.63 79% Wellemeyer Todd 2.92 3.85 79% Lannan John E. 3.47 4.12 79% Padilla Vicente 3.73 4.31 79% Carmona Fausto C. 3.10 5.75 78% Hudson Tim 2.86 3.88 78% Cabrera Daniel A. 3.98 4.67 78% Olsen Scott M. 3.44 4.90 77% Vazquez Javier 3.64 3.39 77% Home run per fly ball rateUnlucky LAST FIRST ERA LIPS ERA HR/FB Oswalt Roy 5.38 4.08 21.05 Badenhop Burke 6.38 4.49 19.44 Cueto Johnny 5.06 3.55 17.58 Myers Brett 5.13 4.07 16.48 Villanueva Carlos M. 5.63 3.97 16.44 Reyes Jo-Jo 4.80 3.73 16.22 Perez Oliver 5.37 5.20 15.79 Trachsel Steve 8.39 6.23 15.63 Chico Matthew B. 6.19 4.61 15.38 Backe Brandon 4.66 4.65 15.31 Byrd Paul 4.46 4.68 15.24 Glavine Tom 4.47 4.81 15.09 Bush David T. 5.85 4.71 15.00 Beckett Josh 4.07 2.97 14.47 Arroyo Bronson 5.74 3.56 14.29 Moyer Jamie 4.56 4.35 14.10 Lucky LAST FIRST ERA LIPS ERA HR/FB Carmona Fausto C. 3.10 5.75 2.94 Duchscherer Justin 2.32 4.23 3.51 Lincecum Tim 2.15 3.77 3.57 Lohse Kyle 3.87 4.59 3.66 McGowan Dustin M. 4.26 3.94 4.00 Eveland Dana J. 3.82 4.23 4.48 Matsuzaka Daisuke 2.53 4.18 4.71 Contreras Jose 2.76 4.06 4.76 Olson Garrett A. 3.86 4.21 5.26 Lee Cliff 2.45 3.12 5.33 Duke Zach 4.19 5.04 5.33 Laffey Aaron S. 2.98 3.70 5.45 Volquez Edison 1.32 3.42 5.45 Pelfrey Mike A. 4.65 5.18 5.48 Ponson Sidney 3.88 4.64 5.88 Zambrano Carlos 3.01 4.13 6.00 LIPS ERAUnlucky LAST FIRST ERA LIPS ERA LIPS ERA-ERA Tomko Brett 6.34 3.77 -2.57 Washburn Jarrod 6.56 4.19 -2.37 Buchholz Clay 5.53 3.32 -2.21 Arroyo Bronson 5.74 3.56 -2.18 Trachsel Steve 8.39 6.23 -2.16 Kennedy Ian Patrick 7.41 5.48 -1.93 Badenhop Burke 6.38 4.49 -1.89 Robertson Nate 6.03 4.30 -1.73 Villanueva Carlos M. 5.63 3.97 -1.66 Burnett A.J. 4.98 3.34 -1.64 Bonser Boof 6.00 4.38 -1.62 Chico Matthew B. 6.19 4.61 -1.58 Cueto Johnny 5.06 3.55 -1.51 Lilly Ted 5.23 3.75 -1.48 Silva Carlos 5.96 4.56 -1.40 Francis Jeff W. 5.53 4.19 -1.34 Miller Andrew M. 5.65 4.35 -1.30 Oswalt Roy 5.38 4.08 -1.30 Weaver Jered D. 4.79 3.55 -1.24 Meche Gil 5.42 4.18 -1.24 Bush David T. 5.85 4.71 -1.14 Jimenez Ubaldo 5.43 4.30 -1.13 Sabathia C.C. 4.81 3.70 -1.11 Beckett Josh 4.07 2.97 -1.10 Sonnanstine Andy 4.88 3.81 -1.07 Lucky LAST FIRST ERA LIPS ERA LIPS ERA-ERA Carmona Fausto C. 3.10 5.75 2.65 Volquez Edison 1.32 3.42 2.10 Duchscherer Justin 2.32 4.23 1.91 Saunders Joe 2.63 4.53 1.90 Floyd Gavin C. 3.15 4.93 1.78 Matsuzaka Daisuke 2.53 4.18 1.65 Lincecum Tim 2.15 3.77 1.62 Olsen Scott M. 3.44 4.90 1.46 Dempster Ryan 2.90 4.22 1.32 Contreras Jose 2.76 4.06 1.30 Marcum Shaun M. 2.52 3.64 1.12 Zambrano Carlos 3.01 4.13 1.12 Sheets Ben 2.62 3.70 1.08 Danks John W. 2.88 3.90 1.02 Hudson Tim 2.86 3.88 1.02 Garland Jon 3.87 4.87 1.00 Note on the numbersPitchers you see on the unlucky lists are those whose value is likely too low. That doesn't necessarily mean you want to acquire the pitcher, though. Steve Trachsel, for example, has the worst LIPS ERA of any pitcher with at least eight starts. He's on the unlucky list, but that's only because his actual ERA is a ridiculous 8.39. Also, while he's made eight starts, he has since been moved to the bullpen and is in danger of being released. Be sure to look at the player's actual LIPS ERA and his overall skill set before you go buying or selling. Concluding thoughtsIf you have some free time at 11 pm EST tonight, I'll be appearing on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable radio show, which you can find here. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he was a contributor at Rotoworld this past season. He was the champion of the FOX Sports Experts Fantasy Baseball League this past year. He welcomes questions via e-mail. 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