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Monday, January 07, 2008Mitchell Report fallout: Fantasy ramificiations (Part 2)Posted by Derek Carty at 6:22pmIn Part 1 of Mitchell Report fallout: Fantasy ramifications, we looked at some of the misconceptions about the Mitchell Report and the players accused of taking PEDs. Bud Selig said that he will examine these players on a “case-by-case” basis, which is exactly what the astute fantasy owner needs to do now. Let’s look at a few of the bigger names. What we should really be thinking aboutMany fantasy players will hear about this report and say, "Oh, no. Steroids, bad." These owners will ignore the individual circumstances and lump everybody together. An intelligent owner instead will begin evaluating players by first asking these questions: 1) What is the player accused of taking? 2) Is this new information? 3) When did he allegedly use them, and how often? 4) Was it used for performance or recovery? 5) Did he allegedly take them before they were banned from baseball? 6) Did he ever fail a test? 7) How reliable is the source? 8) Is there any circumstantial evidence, or is the player’s inclusion based on hearsay? 9) Did the player admit to taking it? 10) Is it possible for the player to continue taking it next year without being caught? 11) How likely is it the player will get suspended? 12) How likely is it that the player is at increased risk of injury for 2008? 13) And, ultimately, will this truly affect his 2008 fantasy value? Andy PettitteAccused of taking: HGH New information?: Yes When: Between April 21 and June 14, 2002 How often: Two to four times Use: Recovery from elbow tendinitis Before MLB Ban?: Yes Admission?: Yes, said he used it twice Possibility of continued use in 2008?: Has most likely stopped using, but could continue using Likelihood of suspension: Cannot be suspended Increased risk of injury?: No Change in fantasy value: Andy Pettitte should not be valued any differently than he was before the Mitchell Report. Troy GlausAccused of taking: Nandrolone and testosterone (anabolic) New information?: No When: Between September 2003 and May 2004 How often: Unknown Use: Unknown. Torn his rotator cuff in '03 and had shoulder surgey in '04, so use for injury recovery is possible Before MLB Ban?: Yes Admission?: No Possibility of continued use in 2008?: Yes, although his source of HGH that was mentioned has since been closed. Likelihood of suspension: Cannot be suspended Increased risk of injury?: Already an injury risk. Change in fantasy value: No new evidence presented on Glaus, so fantasy value should not be affected. He is already an injury risk player, so there is no need to discount him further. Miguel TejadaAccused of taking: Testosterone or Deca-Durabolin (anabolic) and HGH New information?: Yes When: Sometime after March 21, 2003 How often: Unknown Use: Supposedly for performance enhancement Before MLB Ban?: No Failed test?: No Source and reliability: Adam Piatt, very reliable Evidence: Conversations with Piatt and checks purchasing the PEDs, though Piatt didn't know if Tejada used them Admission?: No Possibility of continued use in 2008?: Not likely for the anabolic ones, possibly HGH Likelihood of suspension: Fairly unlikely. There is proof of Tejada's purchase, but zero proof—hearsay or otherwise—that he actually used them. Increased risk of injury?: Possibility of an increased injury risk, although the accusations are coming from 2003. Never missed a game from 2000 until 2007, so he's probably pretty safe. Change in fantasy value: Possibility of an increased injury risk, but overall I wouldn't adjust his value much. Eric GagneAccused of taking: HGH New information?: Yes When: During or after the summer of 2005 How often: Unknown Use: Supposedly for performance enhancement Before MLB Ban?: Yes Failed test?: No Source and reliability: Paul Lo Duca and Kirk Radomski, pretty reliable Evidence: Radomski's story and shipping receipts from Gagne to Radomski Admission?: No Possibility of continued use in 2008?: Yes Likelihood of suspension: Cannot be suspended Increased risk of injury?: Already an injury risk. Change in fantasy value: Like Glaus, Gagne is already seen as an injury risk. No need to downgrade him further. Brian RobertsAccused of taking: Steroids New information?: Yes When: 2003 How often: Once or twice Use: Supposedly for performance enhancement Before MLB Ban?: No Failed test?: No Source and reliability: Larry Bigbie, somewhat reliable Evidence: Bigbie's story of Roberts admitting to him that he used steroids Admission?: Yes, admitted to using it once. Possibility of continued use in 2008?: Unlikely Likelihood of suspension: Roberts admitted to using it once and then realizing he didn't want to be a cheater. Seems he could receive a small suspension, but Selig might have bigger fish to fry. Not a huge concern. Increased risk of injury?: Not likely if he took it only once in 2003. Change in fantasy value: Once in 2003 shouldn't a big deal. Can knock him down just a tiny bit, but nothing to stress over. BALCO guysBarry Bonds, Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield were also mentioned in Sen. Mitchell's report, although no new information was presented on any of them. This may add another strike against them in the eyes of certain owners, but you shouldn't treat them any differently than you were because of this. Concluding thoughtsThat'll do it for our Mitchell Report series. If you want to know how the Mitchell Report will impact the value of any other guys, download a copy and see what Sen. Mitchell had to say about the player. Run through these questions and you should be fine. The outcome will be the same for most of them: possibility of an increased injury risk, maybe a small risk of suspension, but, overall, nothing to overreact to. Derek Carty is a 22-year old fantasy baseball analyst residing in New Jersey. In addition to writing for THTF, his work has appeared at Rotoworld (NBC), Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and Heater Magazine. In his two years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 four top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail. CommentsNext Post: More on value and the "learned minority">> <<Previous Post: Mitchell Report fallout: Fantasy ramificiations (Part 1) |
