Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Mock Draft: 2009 Rotoworld Mock DraftPosted by Derek Carty at 1:04am
Last week, I participated in the 2009 Rotoworld Mock Draft, the full results of which will be featured in their annual draft guide along with some analysis from our friend Nate Stephens. Today, though, I'd like to talk a little about my strategy for the draft and go over some of the more important/interesting picks.
+-----+--------------------+-------+ | POS | PLAYER | ROUND | +-----+--------------------+-------+ | C | Dioner Navarro | R18 | | C | Kenji Johjima | R21 | | 1B | Carlos Pena | R7 | | 2B | Brian Roberts | R4 | | 3B | Edwin Encarnacion | R11 | | SS | Miguel Tejada | R10 | | MI | Robinson Cano | R8 | | CI | James Loney | R12 | | OF | Matt Holliday | R1 | | OF | Ichiro Suzuki | R2 | | OF | Vladimir Guerrero | R3 | | OF | Curtis Granderson | R5 | | OF | Ryan Ludwick | R9 | | UT | Billy Butler | R17 | | SP | Dan Haren | R6 | | SP | Brett Myers | R13 | | SP | Scott Baker | R14 | | SP | Kevin Slowey | R15 | | SP | Jonathan Sanchez | R16 | | SP | Manny Parra | R22 | | RP | Joey Devine | R19 | | RP | Trevor Hoffman | R20 | | RP | Dan Wheeler | R23 | +-----+--------------------+-------+
Above, you'll notice the team that I drafted. Without divulging too many of the details, in this particular mock draft, I sort of had two main objectives: to try out pieces of new strategies and to gather information (in various forms). Parts of the strategy I employed didn't quite go as I planned, but that's the purpose of a mock draft—to try these things out before you hold the drafts that mean something. I very much doubt I'll end up drafting a real team that resembles this one too much, though there are some players in there that a really like, and I think the team as a whole could be competitive.
Here are the picks that I found to be particularly interesting for one reason or another:
Pick No. 1: Hanley Ramirez
Pick No. 7: Ian Kinsler
Pick No. 8: Grady Sizemore
R2, Pick 5: Chase Utley
R3, Pick 5: Dustin Pedroia
Round 3: Jacoby Ellsbury
Round 4: Shane Victorino
Round 4: Rafael Furcal
Round 4: Alexei Ramirez
Round 5: Troy Tulowitzki
Round 6: Francisco Liriano
Round 7: Jay Bruce
Round 8: Chris Davis
Round 8: Chris Iannetta
Round 9: Ryan Ludwick
Round 10: Cliff Lee
Round 10: Matt Wieters
Round 11: David Price
Round 11: Khalil Greene
Round 13: Max Scherzer
Round 14: Denard Span
Round 15: Jose Arredondo
Round 15: Nelson Cruz
Round 15: Rickie Weeks
Round 16: Mike Napoli
Round 18: Taylor Teagarden
Round 21: Joe Saunders
Round 22: George Sherrill
There doesn't quite seem to be a consensus number one pick yet, but it may well end up being Hanley. I've mentioned it before in chats and in The Hardball Times Annual, and I'll be sure to do a full post on him later in the offseason, but I don't agree with this at all. I don't believe Hanley should be taken number one, but I'm glad to see others taking him there. Other first round surprises included Ian Kinsler (who I wouldn't take in the first round) and Grady Sizemore (who seems to be going here relatively frequently and who I could see taking in certain circumstances).
I was very interested to see how far Chase Utley would fall, and he lasted until the middle of the second round. If Utley ends up missing even a month of time, I don't think he'll be able to return this kind of value. I'd much prefer the guy taken exactly one round later, Mr. Pedroia (who I covered in detail here), if I'm taking a second baseman in that spot.
Speed seemed to be in high demand early with Ellsbury going in round three, and Victorino and Furcal going in round four. Middle infielders also seemed to be in demand with Furcal and Alexei Ramirez going in round four and Tulowitzki in round five. It's amazing how a guy who turned in a disappointing 2008 is being taken higher than he was last year. I can't justify this pick unless you're employing a high-risk strategy. The other picks all seemed pretty aggressive as well.
I was hoping Liriano would be one of the guys to last into the early teen rounds this year, but it doesn't appear that will be the case.
Youngsters Bruce, Davis, and Iannetta all went in rounds seven and eight. Iannetta was another guy I was hoping would last until round 11 or 12, but maybe he won't. I'm not as big on Davis as many people are, and I'd absolutely prefer my man Loney in round 12 or 13 to Davis in round eight.
I've said that I think Ryan Ludwick is in for a regression, but I took him in round nine anyway. I was pretty surprised he fell that far. If this were a real league, I might try to trade him in April. I was also surprised Cliff Lee fell as far as he did, and I don't think picking him there would be a terrible idea.
More young guys here with Wieters in round 10, Price in 11, and Scherzer in 13. Price, I doubt I will draft this year. Wieters, I might, if he falls to rounds 13 or 14 and I still need a catcher. Scherzer was a guy I was really hoping would slip through the cracks into the 18-20 area, but apparently not, courtesy of Mr. Stephens.
Denard Span, Nelson Cruz, Rickie Weeks, and Mike Napoli are all guys who I think would make great picks after round 17 or 18, but they all went earlier than that. They might be worth it, but these are the kinds of guys (in addition to several others, of course) that I really like to take later in the draft to minimize the risk and maximize the value.
Khalil Greene in round 11 perplexes me, and Arredondo in 15 seems way too early with more-skilled, more-likely-to-start-the-year-closing pitchers still on the board. I'm taking all three of my closers before Arredondo, at least at this point in the off-season.
Taylor Teagarden makes an appearance in round 18. I've been following him for a while and think he could end up justifying this spot, though some things will definitely need to go right. Napoli might actually be a good comparison here.
Nobody was buying the Joe Saunders or George Sherrill kool-aid, and I won't be either. Sherrill in round 22 is a decent pick, though, given the remaining closers.
That wraps things up for the week here at THT Fantasy Focus. We'll see you all on Monday as we resume regular content, unless of course any big news hits this weekend. In that case, definitely check back here as we should have it covered. Otherwise, enjoy your holidays!
Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.