Without seeing the entire draft, it appears to be another typical expert draft. The young players and sleepers get drafted way too early to make the expert look good if the pick pans out, and value is basically ignored. It would be real interesting to see an expert draft that was played out for real and see how different the picks would be if it wasn’t just a mock.

Manny Parra, R22- easily the best pick of yours

I’m surprised you took Holliday in the 1st round. I figured the move to Oakland pushes his value (actual, not perceived) into the late 2nd/early 3rd.

This resembles a mock draft I participated in about a few days ago. I took Kinsler with the 10th pick overall. This was more of a knee-jerk reaction since I wanted Braun and he was picked right before me. I was really really surprised with mockdraftcentral’s rank of Kinsler and think it’s wrong he’s that high…despite me taking him. I also took Tulo in round 5 but am convinced he’ll bounce back. People said Tulo had been going in rounds 8-10. Oh well. I got Iannetta in round 14 and took Denard Span round 10. It was only a 1 catcher league however, and I got hassled for taking Span so high. It seemed later in the draft than it really was. Also, Utley fell into the 3rd round. It was a 12-team league.

I hadn’t studied his numbers yet, but if his LD% was close to the same, maybe hes worth it late in drafts after all.

Like you said, just got to hope for a fast start, because Clement, Burke and Rob Johnson are all knocking on the door.

Wow, I’m not a fan of your 1st 3 picks at all.  Very limited upside for those guys. 

Even the post-Colorado Holliday believers have to acknowledge he’s going to have some drop-off moving from Colorado to Oakland.  And does anyone really expect him to approach 30 SB again?  In Oakland?  His SB totals look like David Wright’s in 2007 and Lance Berkman’s in 2008.  Maybe he steals 20 next year, but don’t bank on it.

Not a big fan of Ichiro or Guerrero.  Not that they can’t return solid values, but they don’t really have upside to achieve positive return on their draft positions.  Of course, I’ve never been an Ichiro fan in fantasy baseball (love the guy in real baseball).

mymrbig,
Again, I was running with a different strategy that draft, and I doubt I’ll be taking Holliday in the first round again.  Guerrero at the end of the third round I don’t mind, and Ichiro at the beginning of the second is okay if it fits the strategy you’re employing, even if it isn’t the optimal pick in a vacuum.

noname,
Price “seems to have enormous potential” because everyone is talking about it.  The thing is, though, his PITCHf/x data (though limited) wasn’t uber impressive (good fastball but not much else), and his minor league numbers aren’t anything special.  Lincecum’s “stuff” is soooo much better with a ridiculous fastball, good curve, and good change.  Furthermore, he tore apart the minors in his limited time before getting the call with K/9s above 13.00 even at AAA.

Price’s was just over 8.00 at Double-A, and his MLE’s are even worse.  MinorLeagueSplits, whose MLEs are some of the more optimistic ones I’ve seen, have him at just a 6.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.  Other MLEs I’ve seen are much worse.  CHONE, which uses MLEs in its projections, has him projected as a 4.90 ERA pitcher.  That’s simply not 11th round material.

If you disagree, please let me know, but that’s how I feel.  I think there’s a big difference between Price and Lincecum.