Player highlight: Dustin McGowan

Sorry I’ve been away so long, everybody. Finals were killer this year, and on my first few days of vacation I was only able to get a few minutes of internet per day. I’ve received a few requests for Blue Jays starting pitcher Dustin McGowan, so let’s use today to take a look at him.

Numbers

YEAR	AGE	LAST	FIRST	TEAM	LG	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%
2005	23	McGowan	Dustin	Jays	AL	13	7	45.3	6.35	4.95	1.46	1.43	6.75	3.38	2.00	44.14	61.71	0.309	13.46	19.05
2006	24	McGowan	Dustin	Jays	AAA	23	13	84.3	4.39	N/A	1.38	N/A	9.18	4.16	2.21	54.62*	67.77	0.303	11.29	11.76
2006	24	McGowan	Dustin	Jays	AL	16	3	27.3	7.24	6.16	2.20	2.01	7.24	8.23	0.88	46.24	60.46	0.363	6.90	25.53
2007	25	McGowan	Dustin	Jays	AL	27	27	169.7	4.08	4.07	1.22	1.31	7.64	3.24	2.36	50.81	68.61	0.276	9.15	15.86
07-1H	25	McGowan	Dustin	Jays	AL	12	12	71.7	4.65	4.39	1.33	1.40	7.16	3.52	2.04	49.54	64.88	0.299	5.88	17.81
07-2H	25	McGowan	Dustin	Jays	AL	15	15	98.0	3.67	3.94	1.14	1.27	7.99	3.03	2.64	51.44	74.00	0.258	11.76	14.34

Note: Minor league stats came from Jeff Sackmann’s excellent website MinorLeagueSplits.com.
*For minor league numbers, straight ground ball rate is given instead of expected ground ball rate.

Right off the bat, I’m going to call McGowan’s breakout for real. Look at the improvement in his control. He went from walking over 5 batters per game between Triple A and the Majors in 2006 to walking a little over 3 per game in 2007, improving from the first-half to the second and again over the final two months.

The above-average strikeout rate has always been there, and complementing it with improved control makes McGowan a solid pitcher. His ground ball rates aren’t quite in the Francisco Liriano/Felix Hernandez range, but they are well-above average and give McGowan an extra advantage over most power pitchers.

The best news of all? Over the final two months, his peripherals got even better as he posted an 8.79 K/9 and a 2.72 BB/9.

Arsenal

This is the same setup used for Felix Hernandez’s profile, except I’ve thrown in BIP/SWG. This measures the number of balls in play the pitcher allowed per batter swing, the lower the better. I’ve also changed the name of SWG/BALL to SS/BALL. It still measures the same thing, swinging strike to ball ratio, but distinguishes it from BIP/SWG.

Again, I haven’t done a lot of research with these numbers (although I plan on it in the coming weeks), but this data is just too interesting to ignore.

Dustin McGowan
Percentage of Total Pitches Recorded by Pitch f/x — 68%

PITCH	SPEED	BREAKX	BREAKZ	TOTAL	PERCENT	SS/BALL	BIP/SWG	SWINGING%	BALL%	CALLED%	FOUL%	IN PLAY%
Fastball	96.1	-6.08	10.82	935	51%	0.15	0.41	6%	38%	19%	20%	18%
Curveball	82.1	5.09	-3.81	209	11%	0.49	0.29	20%	41%	11%	14%	14%
Slider	88.1	2.98	2.91	375	20%	0.66	0.33	21%	32%	14%	15%	18%
Changeup	87.2	-8.36	6.31	174	9%	0.40	0.39	18%	45%	14%	7%	16%
Cutter	92.8	-2.87	8.63	149	8%	0.12	0.48	5%	39%	17%	18%	21%

League Average
Percentage of Total Pitches Recorded by Pitch f/x — 44%

PITCH	SPEED	BREAKX	BREAKZ	TOTAL	PERCENT	SS/BALL	BIP/SWG	SWINGING%	BALL%	CALLED%	FOUL%	IN PLAY%
Fastball	91.6	-1.78	9.86	145637	N/A	0.17	0.42	6%	36%	19%	20%	19%
Curveball	76.6	2.53	-4.10	27369	N/A	0.25	0.41	10%	40%	20%	13%	17%
Slider	82.7	1.47	2.47	51762	N/A	0.37	0.38	14%	36%	15%	16%	18%
Changeup	82.7	-1.93	5.88	39797	N/A	0.36	0.43	14%	38%	10%	16%	22%
Cutter	87.2	0.61	7.15	9661	N/A	0.24	0.42	9%	36%	16%	19%	20%

As you can see, McGowan has a very powerful arsenal working for him.

His fastball is right around average in nearly every category, despite the fact that it clocked in at over 96 MPH on average. That’s second only to Ubaldo Jimenez among starters who threw at least 100 heaters while Pitch f/x was watching. While the fastball itself is only average, it’s likely that it is a big factor in McGowan’s above-average changeup. He gets a lot of swings and misses on the change while showing decent command.

McGowan’s best offerings, though, are his curve and slider. Both are significantly above average in each of the most important categories (which, right now, I’m considering SS/BALL, SWG/BIP, SS%, BALL% as such), with the exception of the curve’s Ball Percentage, which is right around average. His curve is his best pitch, ranking second in baseball in Swinging Strike Percentage, third in Swinging Strikes per Ball, and third in BIP per Swing (among starters with at least 100 thrown).

The only thing we could say negative about McGowan’s Pitch f/x data is that he doesn’t have great control over certain pitches and that his cutter isn’t very good. As I said last time, I’m not an expert on batter/pitcher dynamics and how pitches interact, but in a vacuum, the cutter appears to be a poor pitch.

One last thing I wanted to check with McGowan is the monthly breakdown of his tracked pitches. I thought maybe he looked so good because the majority of his pitches were taken from August and September, when his peripherals were so good.

PITCHER	PITCHES	% OF TOTAL	MONTH
Dustin McGowan	210	11%	May
Dustin McGowan	450	24%	June
Dustin McGowan	306	17%	July
Dustin McGowan	389	21%	August
Dustin McGowan	487	26%	September

The majority of the pitches were from the second-half (59%), and 47% were from the final two-months. Still, our projection of McGowan should look much more like his second-half than first, so I think this exercise was worthwhile. This very nice repertoire makes me even more confident than McGowan could be primed for a second, even larger breakout in 2008.

Blue Jays defense

TEAM	+/-	RK	RZR	RK	OOZ	RK	IF RZR	RK	IF OOZ	RK	OF RZR	RK	OF OOZ	RK	BABIP
Blue Jays	91	1	0.843	1	379	5	0.771	8	215	3	0.894	3	147	9	0.286

POS	LAST	FIRST	INNINGS	RZR	LG AVG	OOZ	OOZ/(BIZ+OOZ)	LG AVG
1B	Overbay	Lyle	972	0.809	0.741	26	0.131	0.135
2B	Hill	Aaron W	1410	0.865	0.830	57	0.104	0.104
SS	McDonald	John	799	0.845	0.816	51	0.180	0.128
SS	Clayton	Royce	500	0.806	0.816	27	0.144	0.128
3B	Glaus	Troy	928	0.706	0.680	48	0.190	0.139
LF	Lind	Adam A	651	0.898	0.855	22	0.147	0.147
LF	Johnson	Reed	503	0.841	0.855	18	0.144	0.147
CF	Wells	Vernon	1279	0.878	0.888	32	0.089	0.137
RF	Rios	Alex I	1250	0.905	0.877	43	0.163	0.141

McGowan’s .276 BABIP looks low out of context, but this amazing Blue Jay defense probably contributed a decent bit to it. The BABIP is still too low, but combine McGowan’s solid skills with this excellent defense, and a better than average BABIP should be no surprise.

The addition of David Eckstein [.783 RZR, .135 OOZ/(BIZ+OOZ)] will significantly hurt the defense next year. He’ll be taking John McDonald’s spot, and he was actually worse than McDonald’s primary backup, Royce Clayton, in 2007. Unless a trade is made, we might not see much of Adam Lind in 2008 with Reed Johnson and Matt Stairs (below average with both the glove and range in LF in 2007) the top candidates for left, although Stairs could also play some first. Regardless, unless Lind plays as much as he did last year the defense will probably suffer a bit.

The rest of the diamond figures to remain relatively unchanged, but I think it’s safe to say that the Jays’ defense will be worse in 2008. A BABIP around .295 looks about right for McGowan.

2008 outlook

I definitely think McGowan is primed to take another step forward in 2008. He was once a big-time prospect, and at the age of 26 seems to be living up to that billing.

I could certainly see his K/9 jumping above 8.00, but we’ll put his average expectation down for 7.90. If he ever gets the BB/9 to around 2.50 with a K/9 over 8.00 he could be a beast, but for 2008 let’s put that walk rate down at 3.20. The ground ball rate should again be around 50%.

Put all of this together, and we could expect an ERA in the 3.85-3.90 range and a WHIP around 1.30. Given a reasonable jump to 190 innings pitched (and with a 7.90 K/9), McGowan would finish with a helpful 167 strikeouts. I could see the offense being a little better with the addition of Eckstein, and 13 wins should be reachable.

Market value

ProTrade: 36th SP
FOX Sports: 47th SP
CBS Sportsline: 51st SP
CBS Draft: 52nd SP
Sports Fanatics: 54th SP
The Fantasy Man: 61st SP
MLB Fantasy 411: Not in Top 20 SP
Yahoo!: Not in Top 26 SP

Conclusion

McGowan is a guy who I think a lot of guys might peg as a sleeper, but because he gets so much “under the table” hype, he actually becomes overvalued. That ProTrade rank, which is determined by actual players and not writers, really scares me. I like McGowan a lot and think he could be an excellent player in 2008, but the chance is definitely there to lose value if you have to reach for him.

Watch him closely, and if the rest of your league is following the mindset of CBS, the Fantasy Man, and the like, you could have a steal on your hands.

Final thoughts

I won’t be posting tomorrow or the next day, but I’d like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas. If you’re traveling, be safe.

I’ll be back after the holiday with some cool stuff planned, so be on the lookout.