Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 features articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. Please support THT and use this link to purchase the Annual.  Derek Ambrosino
John Burnson Derek Carty Marco Fujimoto Eriq Gardner Matt Hagen Jonathan Halket Rob McQuown Troy Patterson Mike Silver Paul Singman Michael Street And here's the full roster. Got a question for our fantasy baseball experts? Email us:
Heater MagazineAdd 10 MPH to your fantasy team — see for yourself
HEATER MAGAZINE Winner, 2008 CBS Sportsline Fantasy League of Experts  Plus our Statistical Definitions Most Recent Comments
The stats we target (1)
Clone Wars: Clay Buchholz and Felix Hernandez (2) This isn’t fantasy baseball, Joe (5) Top 10 prospects for 2010: Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants (12) Waiver Wire Offseason: AL (10) Monthly Archives
February, 2010
January, 2010 December, 2009 November, 2009 October, 2009 September, 2009 August, 2009 July, 2009 June, 2009 May, 2009 April, 2009 March, 2009 February, 2009 January, 2009 December, 2008 November, 2008 October, 2008 September, 2008 August, 2008 July, 2008 June, 2008 May, 2008 April, 2008 March, 2008 February, 2008 January, 2008 December, 2007 November, 2007 October, 2007 September, 2007 August, 2007 July, 2007 June, 2007 May, 2007 Gear up for baseball season with Chicago White Sox tickets and New York Yankees tickets. LA Angels tickets, Houston Astros tickets, and Atlanta Braves tickets are hot sellers! You can get Boston Red Sox tickets, San Diego Padres tickets or Chicago Cubs tickets for your favorite baseball fan. Coast to Coast Tickets has the best MLB tickets like Minnesota Twins tickets, LA Dodgers tickets, Milwaukee Brewers tickets, New York Met tickets and St. Louis Cardinals tickets. Find premium Chicago Cubs tickets and other Chicago tickets at JustGreatTickets.com. Chicago Cubs Tickets Chicago Tickets  All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons License. |
Most Recent Posts
Monday, March 16, 2009Player spotlight: Hanley RamirezPosted by Derek Carty at 1:22am
With Alex Rodriguez set to undergo surgery and miss at least a couple of months, Hanley Ramirez has now become the consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy baseball drafts, at least for most people. For me, there is no question who the No. 1 pick is, but it's not Hanley. Sure, he plays shortstop—a position that thins out quickly—and sure, he had an excellent 2008 season... +------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ | YEAR | AB | BA | HR | RBI | R | SB | +------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ | 2008 | 589 | 0.301 | 33 | 67 | 125 | 35 | +------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ ... but that 2008 was inflated by quite a bit of good luck, which we simply can't expect to continue into 2009. Let's take a look at some of the underlying indicators. PowerIf you're new to THT Fantasy Focus and are unfamiliar with True Home Runs (tHR) or any of the other stats I'm using, check out our quick reference guide. These stats provide a much clearer picture of a player's talent, so it's well worth taking a couple of minutes to learn them. +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+--------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | HR | tHR | HR/FB | tHR/FB | nHR/FB | OF FB% | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+--------+ | 2006 | 22 | Marlins | 633 | 17 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 31 | | 2007 | 23 | Marlins | 639 | 29 | 26 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 37 | | 2008 | 24 | Marlins | 589 | 33 | 21 | 21 | 14 | 13 | 33 | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+--------+ As you can see, Hanley's home run total didn't change much from 2007 to 2008. On the surface, it's easy for us to say that he was adjusting in his 2006 rookie campaign (and played very well then), then exploded in his sophomore year and continued into his age 25 season in 2008, firmly establishing himself as the premier middle infield power threat. If we look just a bit deeper, however, we see Hanley's 2007 and 2008 power were achieved in different ways. In 2007, he hit a lot of fly balls (37 percent) while keeping a modest HR/FB (14 percent). In 2008, his fly ball rate fell (33 percent) but his HR/FB skyrocketed to 21 percent. If we look even deeper, though, we see that True Home Runs doesn't buy this 2008 power surge. His tHR/FB is on a three-year upswing, but even at 14 percent in 2008, his tHR/FB is much lower than his actual HR/FB. Put all of this together and tHR thinks Hanley should only have hit 21 home runs in 2008. Going forward, marginal gains in tHR/FB should be expected as he ages, but unless he can hit more fly balls, cracking 25 home runs won't be likely. As I believe that your first round pick needs to be consistent, that you need to have a good idea about how they are going to perform, I wouldn't put Hanley down for more than 22 home runs on my cheat sheet. Contact+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | BA | tBA | CT% | BABIP | xBABIP | LD% | BIP/HR | BIP/tHR | +------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ | 2006 | 22 | Marlins | 633 | 0.292 | 0.291 | 80 | 0.344 | 0.339 | 21 | 30 | 27 | | 2007 | 23 | Marlins | 639 | 0.332 | 0.307 | 85 | 0.355 | 0.331 | 18 | 19 | 21 | | 2008 | 24 | Marlins | 589 | 0.301 | 0.282 | 79 | 0.332 | 0.334 | 17 | 14 | 22 | +------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ Hanley has posted batting averages over .300 two years running now, further giving the illusion of dominance, but we see that his True Batting Averages (tBA) have been less than excellent. His .332 average in 2007 was driven by an inflated BABIP (.355 compared to a .331 xBABIP) and an 85 percent contact rate that looks like the outlier in this sample set. Let's look at our plate discipline stats to see the cause of this: +------+-----+---------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | CT% | JUDGMENT X | A/P | BAT CONTROL | BAD BALL | +------+-----+---------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ | 2006 | 22 | Marlins | 633 | 80 | 106 | 0.13 | 89 | 65 | | 2007 | 23 | Marlins | 639 | 85 | 99 | 0.25 | 92 | 62 | | 2008 | 24 | Marlins | 589 | 79 | 105 | 0.19 | 89 | 58 | +------+-----+---------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ As we can see, Hanley's 2007 contact rate was driven by an increase in Bat Control, even while his Judgment fell. Bat Control is normally a very stable stat, but Hanley wasn't able to maintain his gains into 2008. It's possible he'll get back up there, but as Bat Control is so stable, it's not entirely likely. In 2008, Hanley's BABIP regressed as expected, but his batting average was then propped up by all of those extra home runs that we discussed earlier. When they disappear, his True Batting Average falls all the way to .282. Going forward, it's pretty safe to put him down for a BABIP in the .330s—that's where his xBABIP has been his entire career. If we give him an 80 percent contact rate (maybe a little pessimistic, but again, we need to know what our first round pick will do), a .334 BABIP, a 14 percent HR/FB, and a 33 percent fly ball rate, his batting average would be .292—less than what almost every major projection system is predicting. Speed+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+-----+-----------+-------------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | SB | SBA | SBO% | SBA% | SB% | FAN SPEED | FAN BALLOTS | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+-----+-----------+-------------+ | 2006 | 22 | Marlins | 633 | 51 | 66 | 0.244 | 39 | 77 | 85 | 9 | | 2007 | 23 | Marlins | 639 | 51 | 65 | 0.262 | 35 | 78 | 74 | 10 | | 2008 | 24 | Marlins | 589 | 35 | 47 | 0.284 | 24 | 74 | 84 | 23 | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+-----+-----------+-------------+ While Hanley stole more than 50 bases in his first two years in the league, this past year his total fell all the way to 35. This was mostly a result of him attempting to steal less frequently (SBA% — a rate that has dropped each year he's been in the majors), despite having the opportunity to steal much more often (thanks to a big spike in his walk rate). He was also successful on his steals less frequently (SB%). His official website posed the question, "Are the days of [Hanley] swiping 50 a year over?". Hanley responded by saying, “It’s getting close to being over. Not completely over, but I won’t have as many.” This absolutely explains at least a portion of the drop in his attempt rate. So what does this portend for 2009? Well, it's entirely possible that Hanley will start stealing more again—he is, after all, just 25 years old and has done it two out of three years—but we must also take not that he'll be moving to the third spot in the batting order and that he's actually said he'll be stealing less. Given these two facts, it's entirely possible—perhaps even likely—that Hanley falls even further in 2009, into the 25 to 30 SB range. All said, Hanley's stolen base situation for 2009 is murky at best—again, something we want to avoid in our first round pick, especially for the guy taken first overall. I'd be comfortable putting him down for 30 or 35 steals on my cheat sheet. Market valueI'm not going to run through the whole exercise here. Almost everyone has Hanley as the No. 1 shortstop and as the No. 1 player overall. Concluding thoughtsAll said, I'd be comfortable expecting this line out of Hanley: 600 AB, .292 BA, 22 HR, 33 SB, 100 RBI, 90 R. While this is certainly a quality fantasy line, I don't believe it even touches what we might expect from Jose Reyes: 650 AB, .300 BA, 15 HR, 55 SB, 65 RBI, 110 R. By my calculations, this would make Reyes worth several dollars more than Ramirez, perhaps as many as $5. Ramirez would probably be my second choice, but I just can't digest these assertions that he is the undisputed No. 1 pick. He is not. Reyes is more consistent and will quite likely post better stats. Derek Carty is a 22-year old fantasy baseball analyst residing in New Jersey. In addition to writing for THTF, his work has appeared at Rotoworld (NBC), Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and Heater Magazine. In his two years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail. Comments
josh said...
people make such a big deal about getting power in the 1st, but you can almost as easily get it in rounds 2-5. if you paired Uggla with Reyes, you’d potentially have 200+ runs, 150+ RBIs, 40-50 HRs, 60-70 STL from your 2b/ss, albeit a .270 average or so. regarding CitiField, for 1 no one knows for sure how a new park will play out before they actually play games in it. and secondly, it’s not like Shea was doing the Mets’ hitters any favors. Posted 03/16 at 11:09 AM
KY said...
What about injury risk an each player and the fact that injuries effect speed and power players differently? Posted 03/16 at 01:17 PM
PHIL said...
That tHR rate was the eye-opening stat for me. Pujols is clearly #1, with possibly DWright, Reyes, and Hanley rounding out the top 4. The line you lay out is the basement for what Hanley can get i think, and he should out-perform it a bit. Do agree that he is not the only #1 pick. thanks for the stats breakdown Posted 03/16 at 01:23 PM
Derek Carty said...
Jon, Josh, Also, I’d warn against taking Uggla at all. I wrote about him earlier in the off-season here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/dual-spotlights-dan-uggla-and-ty-wigginton/. I’d take Robinson Cano, Kelly Johnson, and Rickie Weeks - to name a few - before him, and they are all going later in the draft. Thanks for the comments, guys! Also, for those who haven’t read it yet, HitTracker’s Greg Rybarczyk had a great interview concerning how CitiField could play here: There have also been reports that it is a hitter’s park, but I’m more inclined to believe it will be the opposite. Posted 03/16 at 03:23 PM
Derek Carty said...
KY, Phil, I agree that there is room for Hanley to outperform the line I submitted, though. As I believe that a first round pick needs to be reliable, I don’t think counting on Hanley for more than that is wise. Posted 03/16 at 03:30 PM
Charles said...
Derek, would you consider hanley to be above or below Wright? Also, so you see any reason to value players differently for h2h versus roto? I find myself inclined to place less of an emphasis on speed in h2h, but I really am not sure why. Posted 03/16 at 10:14 PM
bpasinko said...
I’m not saying Pujols is the clear #1, in fact I really don’t think he is, but I could see why people would want him #1. He’s the most consistent, and you could do much worse than drafting like that in the first 5 rounds. With that said, you (Derek) made a point about Reyes I haven’t heard really at all, his consistency. Reyes seems like opposite of consistency in drafts because people think of 06 Reyes as first overall but the other versions as a risky pick. When in fact, his underlying numbers show a consistency that Hanley can’t compare with. Before I probably couldn’t convince myself to take Reyes 1, but now I think this put me over the edge, thanks! Posted 03/16 at 11:08 PM
Derek Carty said...
Charles, As to H2H, it kind of depends upon your strategy. I don’t play H2H because I can’t handle the heavy luck involved in the postseason so I haven’t done heavy research into the best way to approach it. Our Michael Lerra had a good article about H2H leagues here, though: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/category-influence/ If you’re simply trying to compete in every category, I probably wouldn’t change my evaluations much (although a player like A-Rod might be more valuable since he will probably be fine for the playoffs), though again, I haven’t done any research on week-to-week consistency or anything like that. Posted 03/16 at 11:56 PM
Derek Carty said...
bpasinko, Posted 03/17 at 12:00 AM
RS said...
Shh…I have the third pick in my NFBC league this weekend and am counting on Reyes falling to me (I’m presuming, ok hoping, that Ramirez and Pujols go 1-2) Posted 03/17 at 09:53 AM
Derek Carty said...
Haha, sorry RS. I’ll try to keep it quiet. Good luck! Posted 03/17 at 09:54 AM
Mike Ketchen said...
Derek, I am wondering if you use Hit Tracker when doing HR projections? I see your reasoing behind Hanley hitting 22 but at the same time he was 5th in all of baseball for No Doubt HR and did not appear on the lucky HR leader boards or the Just enough leaderboards. His power is scary and his approach is improving considerably. Posted 03/17 at 12:45 PM
Derek Carty said...
Hey Mike, The main differences are: I might be forgetting some, but that will explain a lot of whatever differences you’re seeing in. The full article explaining tHR can be found here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/moon-shots-introducing-true-home-runs-hittracker/ Posted 03/17 at 12:53 PM
Mike Ketchen said...
Derek, Thanks and good stuff as always. Posted 03/17 at 01:15 PM
Keith said...
Derek, I have the first pick in the first year of a keeper league. 5x5 mixed. Would you go Hanley, Wright, or Reyes? Also, have you posted your rankings anywhere? Thanks. Posted 03/26 at 02:15 AM
Derek Carty said...
Keith, Posted 03/27 at 12:41 AM | ||
Does the mets new stadium worry you regarding Reyes homerun projection? The hittracker article in the annual made it seem like death valley for homers.