Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Players being over-draftedPosted by Dave Shovein at 12:49am
It’s the middle of February, and by this point in the draft season we are starting to get a much clearer picture of how things will shake out at the end of March. Most high-stakes fantasy players have already dabbled in a slow draft or three, testing out the waters and getting their own feel for the flow of the player inventory.
Let me preface this by saying that all players have their own strategies, preferences and levels of risk tolerance when approaching a draft. I come from the belief that you should avoid unnecessary risk, especially in the foundation rounds of a draft. I lean toward consistent and proven production when assembling the core of my teams, avoiding players that have huge injury concerns or are unproven producers. I’ll slant toward players with more potential and higher upside later in the draft.
When I look over the most recent ADP list, a few names stand out to me as players I believe are being drafted too high. This isn’t to say that they’re going to fall flat on their faces or won’t return a profit at their particular draft slot. They are just players who I believe carry too much risk where they are being taken.
So you can peruse the list yourself, Shawn Childs has graciously posted a copy of the most recent ADP report at Sportsdraftdaily.com.(http://sportsdraftdaily.com/2012/02/nfbc-15-team-league-adps/)
Curtis Granderson (ADP 14): Granderson put together an absolutely dynamic season in 2011, and helped lead many a team to league titles. He did show a marked improvement against left-handed pitching, but before we praise him for figuring out how to hit lefties, realize that there could be some small-sample-size bias in only 191 at-bats against them last year.
Granderson hit 41 homers, towering over his previous career high of 30 in 2009. His HR/FB rate jumped to 20.5 percent last year, well over his career rate of 13.9 percent. This signals that he is due for a regression in the homer run category. He also drove home 119 runs, after not driving in more than 74 in any previous season. I think expecting him to finish with more than 80-85 RBI is probably wishful thinking.
In addition, he’s a huge threat to be a drain on your team’s batting average. In the early rounds of a draft, I try to establish a solid average base for my team. A player with 600 at-bats of .260-.265 can weigh down your total team average.
Another red flag is that Granderson had his worst stolen base success rate of his career in 2011 (25/35, 71.5 percent). It’s generally accepted that anything under a 75 percent success rate is actually hurting the team, and could lead to decreased opportunities in the future. If there is an actual decline in speed that has led to the lower rate, he loses more of his value.
I have Granderson finishing with something close to .264 average/107 runs/ 27 homers/ 84 RBI/23 steals. While the numbers do look relatively solid across the board (minus the average), I think that there are many better options on the board at pick 14.
Josh Hamilton (ADP 27): Hamilton has all the talent in the world, and is capable of putting up monstrous offensive numbers. I’m not disputing that at all. He simply doesn’t fit into the plan of someone like me who's trying to avoid risk early on.
In Hamilton’s four years in Texas, he has averaged only 125 games played. That number drops to 114 games if you look at just the previous three seasons. He’s the type of guy who, if he manages to stay on the field for 150 games, can finish with first-round production. In all likelihood though, you’re looking at him missing nearly a quarter of the season.
In addition, how do you weigh his recent public relapse? Some don’t think it should change his draft position at all, but it’s obviously a factor that has to be considered. I have Hamilton finishing around .310 average/83 runs/27 homers/100 RBI /eight stolen bases provided that he gets 500 at-bats. He’s too risky for my taste in round two, but could gain some consideration if he falls further down the board.
Asdrubal Cabrera (ADP 53): Asdrubal finally made good on some of his promise and delivered massive returns for owners who took a chance on him in rounds 15-18 last year. After never hitting more than 11 homers in any professional season (major or minor leagues), he belted 25 long balls in 2011. His HR/FB rate was 13.3 percent last season, after never being higher than 6.7 percent before.
He’ll be only 26 this season, and the power was consistent over the two halves of 2011, but I still expect some regression. His average dropped as the season progressed; he hit only .246 after July 1. He may also see a decline in RBI opportunities, since he'll probably hit second the entire season with Shin-Soo Choo back in the lineup. I expect roughly .278 average/85 runs/18 homers/77 RBI/14 steals from Cabrera in 2011. While those are above-average numbers at a relatively weak position, I’m hesitant to pull the trigger in the fourth round.
Michael Pineda (ADP 89): Let me start by saying that I like Pineda. I’m grateful to him for pitching so well last year: I got him in the 19th round of the NFBC Main and he was a big part of leading my team to a league title. I just think that getting pushed up into the sixth round after the trade to the Yankees (and even the fifth in some drafts) is too high.
Yes, he will see a big increase in run support, and in wins, by joining the Yanks. Conversely though, he’s leaving the safe haven of Safeco Park and heading to one of the worst pitcher’s parks in the league. Pineda is a flyball pitcher (44.8 percent) whose HR/FB rate (9.0 percent last year) is sure to rise in New York. I think the addition in wins will be balanced out by his increase in ratios, putting his value to me as eighth or ninth round as a second or third starting pitcher.
Pushing him into the fifth or sixth round, he has to perform as an ace or high end second starter to return profit, and I just can’t place a high level of confidence in that happening. I have Pineda at 15 wins/3.60 ERA/1.15 WHIP/185 strikeouts. I also tend to be somewhat leery of young pitchers who rely so heavily on the slider (31.5 percent).
While it’s entirely possible that these players exceed my expectations and return profit even at their current picks, it’s not something that I will bet on. If you disagree with my assumptions or believe strongly in any of these players, leave your arguments here. I’d love to hear them.
Dave Shovein is a graduate student and aspiring fantasy baseball guru. He welcomes all comments and questions at shove1dm AT yahoo DOT com.