Friday, February 18, 2011
Positional rankings redux
Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:21amAbout three months ago, I undertook the task of ranking players by position for the 2011 season. Now that many moves have been made by many teams in the offseason since I began ranking the players, I'll update the lists and give some additional insight.
Remember, rankings are about argument, logic and belief. Projections are volatile and perceived value is subjective. Do not be a rankings slave. Rankings are less valuable for the index than they are for the reasons behind the index. As I always try to point out, if you disagree and have a good reason, then you should adjust your own rankings accordingly. My word is not gospel and I do not claim it to be. .
Here's my methodology behind the rankings:
Players are ranked based on their beginning of season player eligibility and other eligibility a player is expected to gain at the beginning of the season'; e.g., Gordon Beckham's second base eligibility last season. Eligibility is determined under Yahoo's default standards. The rules of eligibility for Yahoo fantasy leagues are as follows:
The following conditions apply to a player's position eligibility:
1. A player's position eligibility will not be adjusted prior to the beginning of the season. (If a player in spring training is playing a "new" position, that position will not appear until a player has met the criteria for a change.)
2. Players will not lose eligibility at a previously established position at any time. (For example, if a catcher-eligible player begins to play first base exclusively, he will remain eligible at catcher for the entire season.)
3. It is not possible to customize this setting within Custom Leagues. All leagues are subject to the same constraints.
Gaining eligibility at a new position:
If a position player makes five (5) starts or 10 total appearances at a new position during this season, he will become eligible to play that position in Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball. Pitchers need to make three starts to become eligible as a starter and five relief appearances to qualify as a reliever.
ESPN imposes a more rigorous default position eligibility standard; e.g., 20 games played at the position last season, 10 games played in the present season), so you may have to do additional research if you play ESPN fantasy to verify that players listed in these articles are in fact "position eligible" in your league.
The rankings below are based on 5x5 standard Roto leagues with one catcher, five outfielders, and one middle and corner infield position. These rankings are not based on real-life value, but fantasy value. Hence, guys like Juan Pierre will have value. The projections listed below are courtesy of Brian Cartwright's Oliver projection system. Brian updated the Oliver projection system, some significantly, after I had begun ranking players, but these are the original Oliver forecasts. For the most up-to-date Oliver projections, subscribe to THT Forecasts by clicking here
My rankings, however, are not exclusively based on Oliver's projections. I have also used other sources, such as my xBABIP-adjusted batting lines spreadsheet, Bill James and ZiPS projections (to the extent available), my own xWHIP and xERA calculations (sorry, xERA is not in calculator form, but you can learn the methodology by clicking here or here), to determine my own perception of a player's total expected production.
The rankings here are not exclusively based on total production by category, but determined in light of balance in production by category (the logic of which is explained in my outfielder rankings), a player's expected playing time and health (for example, I expect 100 or so IP from Jake Peavy, 220 innings from Zack Greinke, and considerably less from Rich Harden; perceived health risks have been starred), and the relative scarcity and volatility of production by category.
Top 20 fantasy catchers for 2011
Rank Name Team Oliver Slash 2011 1 Joe Mauer* Twins .331/.411/.493 2 Brian McCann Braves .279/.364/.481 3 Carlos Santana* Indians .267/.378/.479 4 Victor Martinez Tigers .278/.342/.426 5 Buster Posey Giants .300/.376/.480 6 Geovany Soto* Cubs .249/.348/.443 7 Mike Napoli Rangers .257/.338/.507 8 Miguel Montero* Diamondbacks .265/.332/.431 9 Matt Wieters Orioles .272/.345/.419 10 Jorge Posada* Yankees .240/.324/.405 11 Russell Martin* Yankees .253/.353/.347 12 Kurt Suzuki* Athletics .261/.317/.392 13 J.P. Arencibia Blue Jays .221/.261/.407 14 Chris Iannetta Rockies .237/.346/.445 15 Jesus Montero Yankees .289/.341/.509 16 Yadier Molina Cardinals .270/.335/.351 17 John Jaso Rays .259/.351/.375 18 Ryan Doumit* Pirates .253/.314/.403 19 Rod Barajas Dodgers .246/.287/.412 20 Carlos Ruiz Phillies .264/.355/.390
Notes: Russell Martin's signing with the Yankees puts Jesus Montero's short-term role (and value) in question. Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira and Martin have the DH, first base and catcher spots locked up at the moment, so I have bumped Montero down from No. 11 to No. 15. Still, neither Posada or Martin is a model of health, so Montero might find himself in the Yankees lineup this year if and when either goes to the DL. Miguel Olivo, originally a deep draft power-source play, signed with the Mariners and has been bumped off this list. Long live Chooch, the new No. 20. I also moved Martin up a few spots and Kurt Suzuki has been bumped down from No. 7 to No. 12 in light of his underwhelming stolen base expectations by every projection system. The change in park for Mike Napoli to the Rogers Centre in Toronto would have been nice, but the subsequent change to the Rangers, even if it does not limit Napoli's playing time, does not do much for his fantasy value compared to Angels Stadium.
Top 20 fantasy first basemen For 2011
Rank Name Team Oliver Slash (2011) 1 Albert Pujols Cardinals .319/.423/.616 2 Miguel Cabrera Tigers .311/.389/.579 3 Adrian Gonzalez Padres .290/.391/.536 4 Joey Votto Reds .301/.395/.535 5 Prince Fielder Brewers .278/.391/.524 6 Ryan Howard Phillies .263/.342/.516 7 Mark Teixeira Yankees .275/.370/.496 8 Kevin Youkilis Red Sox .289/.384/.513 9 Justin Morneau* Twins .293/.375/.523 10 Adam Dunn White Sox .251/.369/.508 11 Kendry Morales* Angels .289/.335/.510 12 Mark Reynolds Orioles .230/.328/.488 13 Carlos Pena Cubs .214/.336/.444 14 Billy Butler Royals .297/.365/.467 15 Paul Konerko White Sox .266/.345/.455 16 Buster Posey Giants .300/.376/.480 17 Freddie Freeman Braves .286/.345/.483 18 Luke Scott Orioles .252/.331/.454 19 Mike Napoli Angels .257/.338/.507 20 Ike Davis Mets .260/.335/.441
Notes: Adrian Gonzalez got a big bump, from No. 6 to No. 3 overall for the position. Gonzalez, now a Red Sox, is also a top 12 fantasy option in terms of total value for 2011. I still would not recommend drafting him, however, because first base remains the deepest position in baseball. I was able to get Carlos Pena, who moved up a spot or two on this list after signing with the Cubs, in Round 12 in a recent experts mock draft on Mock Draft Central. Derrek Lee has also been bumped for Ike Davis, who, with Freddie Freeman (new addition), moves Russell Branyan and Aubrey Huff off of the top 20 list.
I also added Mark Reynolds, who I originally forgot had first base eligibility this season. It took almost a year and a half, but enough people showing me enough stats have finally convinced me that Kendry Morales is, at the very least, a better version of Billy Butler. Accordingly, I have bumped him up a few slots. I also forgot about Luke Scott the first time around (19 games played at first) and he has been added to this list. Lance Berkman, now an outfielder, was bumped off the top 20 because I doubt his knees will hold up to warrant the rebound risk.
Top 20 fantasy second basemen for 2011
Rank Name Team Oliver Slash (2011) 1 Chase Utley* Phillies .271/.369/.468 2 Ian Kinsler* Rangers .266/.343/.439 3 Robinson Cano Yankees .296/.340/.466 4 Dustin Pedroia* Red Sox .284/.355/.441 5 Brandon Phillips Reds .257/.311/.398 6 Dan Uggla Braves .261/.349/.483 7 Gordon Beckham White Sox .280/.351/.455 8 Rickie Weeks* Brewers .263/.353/.456 9 Martin Prado* Braves .290/.341/.437 10 Ben Zobrist Rays .256/.361/.418 11 Aaron Hill Blue Jays .241/.296/.409 12 Kelly Johnson Diamondbacks .257/.336/.430 13 Brian Roberts Orioles .274/.349/.408 14 Dustin Ackley Mariners .287/.378/.435 15 Neil Walker Pirates .251/.301/.422 16 Chone Figgins Mariners .263/.353/.320 17 Mike Aviles Royals .276/.307/.398 18 Ryan Raburn Tigers .270/.333/.465 19 Howie Kendrick Angels .280/.318/.414 20 Eric Young Jr. Rockies .238/.316/.313
Notes: Chase Utley remains my No. 1 second baseman and is going in the middle of the second round according to Mock Draft Central's ADP listing. If you have a late first round pick, he should be your target—even over Robinson Cano. Dustin Ackley's role at the open of the season remains unknown, but I want to remind everyone that once this kid is called up, he has top 5-10 potential for the position. I'm also falling more and more in love with Rickie Weeks. I've slotted him as No. 8 second baseman, ahead of Martin Prado, Aaron Hill, and Ben Zobrist. Even though he is now ranked a spot or two lower, I still like Aaron Hill as a sleeper for 2011. I also tinkered a bit with the bottom four.
Top 20 fantasy shortstops for 2011
Rank Name Team Oliver Slash (2011) 1 Hanley Ramirez Marlins .307/.383/.518 2 Troy Tulowitzki Rockies .275/.354/.488 3 Jose Reyes* Mets .278/.330/.426 4 Derek Jeter Yankees .278/.344/.376 5 Alexei Ramirez White Sox .272/.311/.399 6 Jimmy Rollins* Phillies .239/.301/.377 7 Stephen Drew Diamondbacks .261/.324/.427 8 Asdrubal Cabrera Indians .281/.339/.390 9 Starlin Castro Cubs .303/.342/.420 10 Rafael Furcal* Dodgers .275/.344/.399 11 Elvis Andrus Rangers .277/.344/.352 12 Mike Aviles* Royals .276/.307/.398 13 Danny Espinosa Nationals .241/.312/.403 14 Ian Desmond Nationals .261/.312/.399 15 Erick Aybar* Angels .267/.314/.358 16 Cliff Pennington Athletics .237/.322/.328 17 Miguel Tejada Giants .268/.302/.378 18 Alcides Escobar Royals .267/.310/.357 19 J.J. Hardy* Orioles .251/.313/.395 20 Jhonny Peralta Tigers .256/.315/.408
Notes: No change (or at least I don't think I made any changes...).
Top 20 fantasy third basemen for 2011
Rank Name Team Oliver Slash (2011) 1 David Wright Mets .291/.371/.491 2 Evan Longoria Rays .286/.364/.532 3 Ryan Zimmerman Nationals .294/.366/.509 4 Alex Rodriguez* Yankees .267/.357/.479 5 Kevin Youkilis Red Sox .290/.383/.521 6 Adrian Beltre Rangers .276/.323/.449 7 Jose Bautista Blue Jays .239/.347/.478 8 Pablo Sandoval Giants .305/.357/.506 9 Aramis Ramirez* Cubs .259/.327/.446 10 Mark Reynolds Orioles .222/.323/.479 11 Martin Prado* Braves .290/.341/.437 12 Pedro Alvarez Pirates .245/.330/.460 13 Juan Francisco Red .273/.308/.513 14 Michael Young Rangers .277/.328/.419 15 Ian Stewart Rockies .234/.321/.441 16 Casey McGehee Brewers .273/.325/.426 17 David Freese Cardinals .262/.322/.413 18 Chase Headly Padres .264/.333/.403 19 Michael Cuddyer Twins .270/.340/.449 20 Chipper Jones* Braves .263/.373/.415
Notes: Because Adrian Beltre re-signed with the Rangers (+14 percent home run index for right-handed batters, +11 percent run index) after leaving the Red Sox (-7 percent home run index for right-handed batters, +8 percent run index), his index remains stable, though his value might slightly increase. Jose Bautista, an extreme right-handed pull hitter, is still slotted to bat out of the middle of the lineup for the Blue Jays, whose home park boasts a three year +16 percent home run index for right-handed hitters. Yeah, he's going to hit at least 30 this year. You might also make a good argument that Michael Young should be rated above Reynolds. Still, as I noted in my third base rankings, Reynolds is an underrated third base option. I also bumped Pablo Sandoval a up past Aramis Ramirez. Juan Francisco's ranking assumes 550+ PA. If he's not in the lineup regularly, he's not worth the pick. Also, you are going to want to avoid Francisco like the plague in OBP league -- he's essentially Mike Jacobs with third base eligibility. Mike Moustakas could get the June call up (yes, yes, I raved otherwise all offseason, but for some reason thought that Moustakas was 2 years younger than he actually is, though 23 could still be young enough for the Royals to delay his call up a full season to save service time...) and I have him paired with Chipper Jones, which may result in top 10 production combined (Chipper is so low on the list only because of health concerns, but he can stay healthy for two months...right?)
Top 20 fantasy middle infielders for 2011 (ignoring the top 12 second basemen and shortstops)
Rank Name Team Oliver Slash (2011) 1 Brian Roberts* Orioles .274/.349/.408 2 Dustin Ackley Mariners .287/.378/.435 3 Neil Walker Pirates .251/.301/.422 4 Chone Figgins Mariners .263/.353/.320 5 Mike Aviles* Royals .276/.307/.398 6 Ryan Raburn Tigers .270/.333/.465 7 Danny Espinosa Nationals .241/.312/.403 8 Ian Desmond Nationals .261/.312/.399 9 Howie Kendrick Angels .280/.318/.414 10 Eric Young Jr. Rockies .238/.316/.313 11 Erick Aybar* Angels .267/.314/.358 12 Cliff Pennington Athletics .237/.322/.328 13 Miguel Tejada Giants .268/.302/.378 14 Alcides Escobar Royals .267/.310/.357 15 J.J. Hardy* Orioles .251/.313/.395 16 Jhonny Peralta Tigers .256/.315/.408 17 Yunel Escobar Blue Jays .273/.245/.374 18 Sean Rodriguez Rays .250/.324/.459 19 Juan Uribe Dodgers .258/.308/.432 20 Marco Scutaro Red Sox .256/.315/.408
Notes: Players No. 6-10 have changed order and Reid Brignac has been dropped for Sean Rodriguez.
Top 20 fantasy corner infielders for 2011 (ignoring the top 12 first and third basemen)
Rank Name Team Oliver Slash (2011) 1 Billy Butler Royals .297/.365/.467 2 Pedro Alvarez Pirates .245/.330/.460 3 Paul Konerko White Sox .266/.345/.455 4 Michael Young Rangers .277/.328/.419 5 Ian Stewart Rockies .234/.321/.441 6 Buster Posey Giants .300/.376/.480 7 Freddie Freeman Braves .286/.345/.483 8 Luke Scott Orioles .252/.331/.454 9 Mike Napoli Rangers .257/.338/.507 10 Casey McGehee Brewers .273/.325/.426 11 Ike Davis Mets .260/.335/.441 12 Aubrey Huff Giants .265/.339/.448 13 Gaby Sanchez Marlins .271/.336/.437 14 Russell Branyan* Diamondbacks .248/.330/.484 15 David Freese Cardinals .262/.322/.413 16 Derrek Lee Cubs .257/.339/.421 17 Lance Berkman* Cardinals .262/.374/.443 18 Chase Headly Padres .264/.333/.403 19 Michael Cuddyer Twins .270/.340/.449 20 Chipper Jones* Braves .263/.373/.415
Notes: I can't even begin to tell you how and why I shuffled this list around. Assuming he's not platooned into oblivion Russell Branyan should be a great source of cheap power. Just missing the cut here are Scott Rolen and Chris Carter.
Top 60 fantasy outfielders for 2011
Rank Player Team Oliver Slash (2011) 1 Ryan Braun Brewers .307/.367/.533 2 Matt Holliday Cardinals .301/.380/.500 3 Josh Hamilton* Rangers .301/.360/.501 4 Carlos Gonzalez Rockies .288/.340/.508 5 Carl Crawford Red Sox .287/.341/.426 6 Matt Kemp Dodgers .270/.328/.454 7 Jason Heyward Braves .308/.393/.539 8 Justin Upton Diamondbacks .291/.372/.536 9 Nelson Cruz* Rangers .272/.341/.504 10 Shin-Soo Choo Indians .294/.387/.480 11 Andrew McCutchen Pirates .277/.357/.448 12 Alex Rios White Sox .265/.313/.408 13 Jayson Werth* Nationals .261/.361/.460 14 Ichiro Suzuki Mariners .309/.351/.392 15 Jay Bruce Reds .265/.336/.486 16 Mike Stanton Marlins .283/.359/.623 17 Jacoby Ellsbury* Red Sox .266/.324/.359 18 Hunter Pence Astros .270/.324/.445 19 Drew Stubbs Reds .232/.306/.354 20 Andre Ethier Dodgers .278/.356/.485 21 Torii Hunter Angels .273/.346/.441 22 Domonic Brown Phillies .271/.336/.449 23 B.J. Upton Rays .244/.338/.394 24 Chris Young Diamondbacks .238/.320/.420 25 Colby Rasmus Cardinals .259/.338/.467 26 Curtis Granderson* Yankees .246/.324/.433 27 Jose Bautista Blue Jays .239/.347/.478 28 Grady Sizemore* Indians .250/.342/.453 29 Manny Ramirez* Rays .272/.371/.463 30 Nick Markakis Orioles .280/.358/.424 31 Brett Gardner Yankees .256/.353/.345 32 Carlos Beltran* Mets .278/.362/.447 33 Shane Victorino Phillies .267/.332/.413 34 Vladimir Guerrero Rangers .284/.332/.449 35 Desmond Jennings Rays .261/.335/.382 36 Jason Bay Mets .254/.352/.457 37 Adam Jones Orioles .271/.318/.429 38 Bobby Abreu Angels .257/.348/.404 39 Vernon Wells Angels .272/.324/.446 40 Jose Tabata Pirates .298/.351/.422 41 Corey Hart Brewers .271/.327/.463 42 Ben Zobrist Rays .256/.361/.418 43 Juan Pierre White Sox .273/.329/.323 44 Carlos Quentin* White Sox .252/.339/.480 45 Angel Pagan Mets .278/.331/.417 46 Delmon Young Twins .292/.330/.464 47 Michael Bourn Astros .254/.325/.331 48 Travis Snider Blue Jays .263/.329/.470 49 Lance Berkman* Cardinals .262/.374/.443 50 Luke Scott Orioles .252/.331/.454 51 Nick Swisher Yankees .249/.346/.443 52 Coco Crisp Athletics .268/.338/.401 53 Logan Morrison Marlins .286/.376/.452 54 Hideki Matsui Athletics .253/.339/.412 55 J.D. Drew Red Sox .243/.350/.423 56 Aubrey Huff Giants .265/.339/.448 57 Michael Cuddyer Twins .270/.340/.449 58 Matt Joyce Rays .240/.340/.445 59 Rajai Davis Blue Jays .275/.316/.374 60 Carlos Lee Astros .259/.305/.412
Notes: A few changes in the upper tier: Jason Heyward has jumped from No. 12 to No. 7 on my list, leapfrogging Justin Upton. While it was hard to rank Heyward (.300/25/15/100+/100+ is my expected line) ahead of Upton (expecting .290/25-30/15-20/100+/100+ production, plus he calls Chase Field his home), Heyward's ceiling is arguably better and he's just still just 21. Did you know Heyward walked more than 90 times in his rookie season?
I also flip-flopped Andrew McCutchen and Alex Rios on this list. Their values are very close, though Rios arguably has better power upside; again, tie goes to the younger player. The most notable change to this list, as evidenced by the volume of comments on the original outfielder rankings, might be moving up Delmon Young from No. 53 to No. 46, one spot behind Angel Pagan. I still do not think that Young hits even 25 home runs this year, but if he comes close and hits .280 or higher, he will be more valuable than I initially credited him.
Oh, and I bumped both Jacoby Ellsbury and Hunter Pence up a few slots. I also had to bump Desmond Jennings' ranking down with the Rays' recent signing of Johnny Damon. (Reports indicate that Jennings will start the season at Triple-A, but I expect him to get a May call-up). Jennings should remain a prime target for keeper leagues. Vernon Wells was also bumped down several slots due to a change in park.
Top 100 fantasy starting pitchers for 2011
Rank Name Team oERA oWHIP oK/9 1 Tim Lincecum Giants 3.27 1.21 10.0 2 Roy Halladay Phillies 3.32 1.13 7.2 3 Felix Hernandez Mariners 3.35 1.23 7.7 4 Josh Johnson Marlins 3.40 1.22 7.9 5 Cliff Lee Phillies 3.34 1.15 6.9 6 C.C. Sabathia Yankees 3.59 1.24 7.4 7 Jon Lester Red Sox 3.74 1.25 8.6 8 Dan Haren Angels 3.68 1.19 8.3 9 Zack Greinke Brewers 3.49 1.21 8.3 10 Justin Verlander Tigers 3.67 1.28 8.8 11 Chris Carpenter Cardinals 3.49 1.20 6.5 12 Francisco Liriano Twins 4.18 1.37 8.4 13 Cole Hamels Phillies 3.78 1.23 8.1 14 Max Scherzer Tigers 3.77 1.27 9.0 15 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 3.33 1.26 9.2 16 Mat Latos Padres 3.37 1.18 8.4 17 Jered Weaver Angels 3.77 1.25 8.3 18 Tommy Hanson Braves 3.41 1.19 8.3 19 Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 3.35 1.25 8.5 20 Yovani Gallardo Brewers 3.93 1.36 9.1 21 Roy Oswalt Phillies 3.56 1.20 7.2 22 Ricky Nolasco Marlins 4.09 1.26 7.9 23 Jeremy Hellickson Rays 3.72 1.22 8.5 24 Shaun Marcum Brewers 3.82 1.24 7.0 25 Chad Billingsley Dodgers 3.94 1.35 7.9 26 David Price Rays 3.86 1.32 7.6 27 Hiroki Kuroda Dodgers 3.64 1.24 6.2 28 Colby Lewis Rangers 3.33 1.16 8.4 29 Brett Anderson Athletics 3.87 1.27 7.1 30 Madison Bumgarner Giants 3.51 1.21 6.9 31 Ted Lilly Dodgers 3.67 1.18 7.4 32 Jhoulys Chacin Rockies 3.60 1.27 8.0 33 Wandy Rodriguez Astros 4.00 1.33 7.6 34 Josh Beckett Red Sox 4.26 1.31 7.9 35 Phil Hughes Yankees 3.87 1.29 7.7 36 Daniel Hudson Diamondbacks 3.94 1.26 8.4 37 Matt Cain Giants 3.78 1.27 7.4 38 Ian Kennedy Diamondbacks 3.92 1.29 7.7 39 Ryan Dempster Cubs 4.02 1.34 7.7 40 Gavin Floyd White Sox 4.07 1.33 6.8 41 Jaime Garcia Cardinals 3.86 1.34 7.3 42 Michael Pineda Mariners 3.81 1.23 7.4 43 Mike Minor Braves 5.49 1.55 7.9 44 Brandon Webb* Rangers 3.86 1.31 6.8 45 Ricky Romero Blue Jays 4.59 1.49 6.7 46 Tim Hudson Braves 3.92 1.32 5.4 47 Jordan Zimmerman Nationals 4.20 1.32 7.7 48 Gio Gonzalez Athletics 4.40 1.46 8.4 49 Travis Wood Reds 3.69 1.27 7.3 50 John Danks White Sox 3.79 1.29 6.8 51 Matt Garza Cubs 4.15 1.33 6.9 52 Clay Buchholz Red Sox 3.78 1.32 6.8 53 Scott Baker Twins 4.37 1.32 7.2 54 Brian Matusz Orioles 3.89 1.29 7.9 55 Marc Rzepczynski Blue Jays 4.40 1.44 7.8 56 Trevor Cahill Athletics 4.00 1.31 5.9 57 C.J. Wilson Rangers 3.91 1.36 7.5 58 James Shields Rays 4.62 1.37 7.1 59 Kyle Drabek Blue Jays 4.10 1.37 6.8 60 Mike Leake Reds 3.52 1.21 7.5 61 Jason Hammel Rockies 4.21 1.34 6.8 62 Wade Davis Rays 4.36 1.41 6.7 63 Dallas Braden Athletics 4.18 1.34 5.7 64 Jonathan Sanchez Giants 4.19 1.39 9.3 65 Jorge de la Rosa Rockies 4.07 1.35 8.8 66 Brandon Morrow Blue Jays 4.26 1.41 8.7 67 Javier Vazquez* Marlins 4.16 1.31 7.7 68 Carlos Zambrano* Cubs 4.06 1.41 7.2 69 Jake Peavy* White Sox 3.86 1.29 8.0 70 Derek Holland Rangers 4.12 1.33 7.3 71 Brett Myers* Astros 4.24 1.35 7.0 72 Johan Santana* Mets 3.82 1.27 7.0 73 Rich Harden* Athletics 4.36 1.40 9.2 74 Kevin Slowey* Twins 4.47 1.30 6.8 75 Johnny Cueto Reds 4.33 1.35 6.9 76 Justin Masterson Indians 4.43 1.44 7.0 77 Edinson Volquez Reds 4.15 1.40 8.5 78 Ervin Santana Angels 4.50 1.37 7.1 79 Bud Norris Astros 4.57 1.47 8.3 80 Randy Wells Cubs 4.12 1.36 6.2 81 Tom Gorzelanny Nats 4.34 1.45 7.5 82 Jair Jurrjens Braves 4.12 1.37 6.5 83 Aaron Harang Padres 4.81 1.44 6.9 84 Bronson Arroyo Reds 3.97 1.28 5.4 85 Edwin Jackson White Sox 4.45 1.42 6.9 86 Chris Young* FA 4.82 1.50 6.7 87 Homer Bailey Reds 4.43 1.45 7.4 88 Joel Pineiro Angels 4.10 1.29 4.9 89 Daisuke Matsuzaka Red Sox 4.46 1.44 7.5 90 Rick Porcello Tigers 4.19 1.34 5.1 91 Anibal Sanchez Marlins 4.10 1.40 6.8 92 Derek Lowe Braves 4.25 1.39 5.6 93 Carl Pavano Twins 4.52 1.34 5.2 94 Chris Tillman Orioles 4.28 1.39 7.1 95 Mike Pelfrey Mets 4.62 1.46 5.1 96 R.A. Dickey Mets 4.26 1.38 5.1 97 John Lackey Red Sox 4.37 1.36 6.5 98 Hisanori Takahashi Angels 4.12 1.34 7.3 99 Clayton Richard Padres 4.37 1.43 6.3 100 Jeff Niemann Rays 4.30 1.37 6.5
Notes: As previously noted, none of Kris Medlen, Stephen Strasburg, Justin Duchscherer, Erik Bedard, Chien-Ming Wang, Andrew Cashner, Sean Marshall, or Chris Sale are ranked on this list, due to health concerns, questionable or unclear roles with their teams, or the like. I also took an extended look at Matt Cain in light of the discussion in the comments. Using my xWHIP calculator to normalize Cain's batted ball distribution to reflect a 19 percent line drive rate for 2009-2010, I found that even assuming his true home run per outfield flyball talent was 7 percent (rather than the league average rate of 11.5 percent, his expected tERA is north of 4.2. Thus, still not a fan of Cain.
Kyle Drabek made a huge jump up the list. His velocity and hammer-curve are just to good to ignore, and his "wildness" may have just been the byproduct of missing low in a small sample rather than lack of control. I also got sold on a ticket for the Mike Leake train, choo choo! I also added two youngsters, Mike Minor and Michael Pineda, who, combined with a "fantasy league average" starting pitcher, should composite to Frankenstein into a top 50 pitcher. Wainwright's been 86'd because "I told you so" about his elbow.
Oh, and I flopped Lincecum and Halladay. The freak is just in a class of his own, according to my EYES rankings. Oliver's pricing guide seems to agree, though it also has my boy King Felix ahead of Halladay as well. I like Felix more as a pitcher, but, despite my critiques of the 2011 Phillies' offensive outlook, I still say Doc Halladay out "wins" King Felix and thus (barely) secures the No. 2 spot ahead of him. Honestly, you'll be happy getting any of these three pitchers.
Top 50 fantasy relief pitchers for 2011
Rank Player Team oSV oERA oWHIP oK/9 Opening Day Closer? 1 Joakim Soria Royals 38 3.20 1.12 9.1 Y 2 Neftali Feliz Rangers 36 3.36 1.18 8.6 Y 3 Mariano Rivera Yankees 35 3.00 1.08 7.4 Y 4 Brian Wilson Giants 38 3.41 1.23 9.4 Y 5 Heath Bell Padres 36 3.48 1.24 8.5 Y 6 Carlos Marmol Cubs 36 3.52 1.31 11.4 Y 7 Drew Storen Nationals 32 3.47 1.20 8.9 Y 8 J.J. Putz Diamondback 38 3.84 1.31 7.8 Y 9 Jose Valverde Tigers 38 3.81 1.27 8.2 Y 10 Joe Nathan* Twins 36 3.43 1.16 8.5 Y 11 Andrew Bailey* Athletics 32 3.66 1.24 8.2 Y 12 Jonathan Papelbon Red Sox 36 3.48 1.20 8.9 Y 13 Matt Thornton White Sox 36 3.22 1.17 9.3 Y 14 Chris Perez Indians 36 3.90 1.30 9.0 Y 15 Francisco Rodriguez Mets 38 3.78 1.30 8.9 Y 16 Brad Lidge* Phillies 32 4.21 1.38 8.5 Y 17 Huston Street* Rockies 26 3.47 1.20 8.8 Y 18 Frank Francisco Blue Jays 28 3.44 1.20 9.7 Y 19 Craig Kimbrel Braves 36 3.98 1.44 11.1 Y 20 John Axford Brewers 40 4.15 1.45 9.0 Y 21 Francisco Cordero Reds 38 4.06 1.40 7.3 Y 22 Jonathan Broxton Dodgers 30 3.40 1.22 10.1 Y 23 Joel Hanrahan Pirates 30 3.70 1.27 9.8 Y 24 Leo Nunez Marlins 36 4.04 1.29 7.3 Y 25 Koji Uehara* Orioles 0 3.57 1.18 7.4 Y 26 Brandon League Mariners 2 3.83 1.27 7.1 Y 27 Brandon Lyon Astros 22 4.00 1.32 6.2 Y 28 Ryan Franklin Cardinals 32 4.08 1.32 6.0 Y 29 Fernando Rodney* Angels 18 4.55 1.50 6.9 Y (possible committee) 30 Jake McGee Rays 16 4.01 1.39 8.7 (committee) 31 Takashi Saito Brewers 0 3.65 1.25 8.1 N 32 J.P. Howell* Rays 6 3.79 1.26 8.7 (committee; on DL) 33 Aroldis Chapman Reds 0 3.89 1.34 10.4 N 34 Kevin Gregg Orioles 34 4.14 1.39 7.6 N 35 Daniel Bard Red Sox 4 3.51 1.23 9.2 N 36 Matt Capps Twins 4 3.90 1.24 7.0 N 37 Mike Adams Padres 2 3.33 1.19 8.6 N 38 Evan Meek Pirates 10 3.84 1.33 7.7 N 39 Hong Chi Kuo Dodgers 6 3.07 1.12 9.1 N 40 Ryan Madson Phillies 6 3.63 1.21 8.2 N 41 Rafael Soriano Yankees 36 3.37 1.20 8.5 N 42 Jason Motte Cardinals 2 3.76 1.24 9.0 N 43 Jonny Venters Braves 4 4.21 1.41 6.7 N 44 David Aardsma* Mariners 38 4.09 1.38 8.2 N (starting on DL) 45 Kerry Wood* Cubs 2 4.04 1.32 8.5 N 46 Luke Gregerson Padres 2 3.43 1.20 8.9 N 47 Mike Gonzalez Orioles 36 4.19 1.32 8.7 N 48 Sergio Romo Giants 2 3.34 1.15 8.7 N 49 Sean Marshall Cubs 2 3.54 1.23 8.3 N 50 Tyler Clippard Nationals 4 3.87 1.31 9.0 N
Notes: A lot of names have been shuffled around. Though Rafael Soriano signed for money, not a closing gig, he should still be a very valuable reliever who can stabilize shaky ratios in 2011. I still believe Koji Uehara has the long-term edge on Kevin Gregg for the closing job in Baltimore. I think the Blue Jays' acquisition of Frank Francisco pushes Octavio Dotel out of a ninth-inning job, and Francisco should be a top 20 closer on talent alone (goodbye closer sleeper Jason Frasor). I bumped up Matt Capps (and bumped down Joe Nathan) because Nathan's velocity is three or so ticks down from pre-surgery levels. Monitor Nathan closely; Capps is the Twins' plan B.
With David Aardsma down and out for at least April, Brandon League gets a boost due to job security. Aardsma gets the corollary bump down. Finally, Jays manager Joe Maddon seems intent on opening the seasons with a closer by committee. The job will likely end up in either Jake McGee or J.P. Howell's hand long-term, but do not discount Kyle Farnsworth (managers like Maddon love "experience"). Remember, the majority of these rankings have to do with likelihood of accruing saves, not raw numbers alone (hence Soriano is ranked No. 41 behind Evan Meek and Gregg).
Now let's compare my batter rankings to Oliver's fantasy guide rankings, indexed. Positive differential values indicate that Oliver likes the player more and a negative value indicates that I liked a player more.
CATCHERS
Oliver Rank My Rank Difference Player Team 1 1 0 Joe Mauer Twins 2 3 1 Carlos Santana Indians 3 5 2 Buster Posey Giants 4 4 0 Victor Martinez Tigers 5 2 -3 Brian McCann Braves 6 9 3 Matt Wieters Orioles 7 6 -1 Geovany Soto Cubs 8 N/R N/R A.J. Pierzynski White Sox 9 14 5 Chris Ianetta Rockies 10 8 -2 Miguel Montero Diamondbacks 11 12 1 Kurt Suzuki Athletics 12 N/R N/R Josh Thole Mets 13 10 -3 Jorge Posada Yankees 14 N/R N/R J. Saltalamacchia Red Sox 15 N/R N/R John Buck Marlins 16 16 0 Yadier Molina Cardinals 17 N/R N/R Chris Snyder Pirates 18 20 2 Carlos Ruiz Phillies 19 19 0 Rod Barajas Dodgers 20 N/R N/R Miguel Olivo MarinersMissing from my list: Russell Martin (11), J.P. Arencibia (13), Jesus Montero (15), John Jaso (17)
FIRST BASE
Oliver Rank My Rank Difference Player Team 1 1 0 Albert Pujols Cardinals 2 2 0 Miguel Cabrera Tigers 3 11 8 Kendry Morales Angels 4 4 0 Joey Votto Reds 5 3 -2 Adrian Gonzalez Padres 6 5 -1 Prince Fielder Brewers 7 8 1 Kevin Youkilis Red Sox 8 6 -2 Ryan Howard Phillies 9 9 0 Justin Morneau Twins 10 17 7 Mark Reynolds Orioles 11 10 0 Adam Dunn White Sox 12 7 -4 Mark Teixeira Yankees 13 13 1 Billy Butler Royals 14 N/R N/R Dan Johnson Rays 15 N/R N/R Kila Ka'aihue Royals 16 15 0 Paul Konerko White Sox 17 20 4 Aubrey Huff Giants 18 20 3 Ike Davis Mets 19 22 4 Gaby Sanchez Marlins 20 12 -7 Carlos Pena CubsMissing from my list: Lance Berkman (14), Luke Scott (17)
SECOND BASE
Oliver Rank My Rank Difference Player Team 1 1 0 Chase Utley Phillies 2 6 4 Dan Uggla Braves 3 3 0 Robinson Cano Yankees 4 8 4 Rickie Weeks Brewers 5 4 -1 Dustin Pedroia Red Sox 6 17 11 Mike Aviles Royals 7 11 4 Aaron Hill Blue Jays 8 2 -6 Ian Kinsler Rangers 9 10 1 Ben Zobrist Rays 10 13 3 Brian Roberts Orioles 11 7 -4 Gordon Beckham White Sox 12 12 0 Kelly Johnson Diamondbacks 13 15 2 Neil Walker Pirates 14 19 5 Ryan Raburn Tigers 15 5 -9 Brandon Phillips Reds 16 9 -6 Martin Prado Braves 17 22 6 Sean Rodriguez Rays 18 23 6 Juan Uribe Dodgers 19 19 1 Ian Desmond Nationals 20 16 -3 Chone Figgins MarinersMissing from my list: Dustin Ackley (14) and Howie Kendrick (20)
SHORTSTOP
Oliver Rank My Rank Difference Player Team 1 1 0 Hanley Ramirez Marlins 2 2 0 Troy Tulowitzki Rockies 3 3 0 Jose Reyes Mets 4 12 8 Mike Aviles Royals 5 5 0 Alexei Ramirez White Sox 6 9 3 Starlin Castro Cubs 7 13 6 Danny Espinosa Nationals 8 6 -2 Jimmy Rollins Phillies 9 22 13 Juan Uribe Dodgers 10 14 4 Ian Desmond Nationals 11 7 -4 Stephen Drew Diamondbacks 12 N/R N/R Jason Bartlett Padres 13 4 -9 Derek Jeter Yankees 14 11 -3 Elvis Andrus Rangers 15 10 -5 Rafael Furcal Dodgers 16 8 -8 Asdruba Cabrera Indians 17 17 0 Miguel Tejada Giants 18 21 3 Yunel Escobar Blue Jays 19 18 -1 Alcides Escobar Royals 20 19 -1 J.J. Hardy TwinsMissing from my list: Erick Aybar (15), Cliff Pennington (15), Miguel Tejada (17), Jhonny Peralta (20)
THIRD BASE
Oliver Rank My Rank Difference Player Team 1 1 0 David Wright Mets 2 3 1 Ryan Zimmerman Nationals 3 2 -1 Evan Longoria Rays 4 7 3 Jose Bautista Blue Hays 5 8 3 Pablo Sandoval Giants 6 5 -1 Kevin Youkilis Red Sox 7 4 -3 Alex Rodriguez Yankees 8 10 2 Mark Reynolds Orioles 9 N/R N/R Dan Johnson Rays 10 12 2 Pedro Alvarez Pirates 11 16 5 Casey McGehee Brewers 12 6 -6 Adrian Beltre Rangers 13 N/R N/R Chris Johnson Astros 14 11 -3 Martin Prado Braves 15 9 -6 Aramis Ramirez Cubs 16 20 4 Michael Cuddyer Twins 17 19 3 Chase Headley Padres 18 N/R N/R Scott Rolen Reds 19 N/R N/R Casey Blake Dodgers 20 N/R N/R Placido Polanco PhilliesMissing from my list: Michael Young (13), Ian Stewart (14), David Freese (15), Chipper Jones (17)
OUTFIELDERS
Oliver Rank My Rank Difference Player 1 1 0 Ryan Braun 2 4 2 Carlos Gonzalez 3 2 -1 Matt Holliday 4 10 6 Shin-Soo Choo 5 16 11 Mike Stanton 6 9 3 Nelson Cruz 7 3 -4 Josh Hamilton 8 27 19 Jose Bautista 9 13 4 Jayson Werth 10 6 -4 Matt Kemp 11 5 -6 Carl Crawford 12 7 -5 Jason Heyward 13 59 46 Rajai Davis 14 14 0 Ichiro Suzuki 15 8 -7 Justin Upton 16 45 29 Angel Pagan 17 48 31 Travis Snider 18 41 23 Corey Hart 19 N/R N/R Adam Lind 20 20 1 Andre Ethier 21 15 -6 Jay Bruce 22 11 -11 Andrew McCutchen 23 18 -5 Hunter Pence 24 36 12 Jason Bay 25 33 8 Shane Victorino 26 12 -14 Alex Rios 27 46 19 Delmon Young 28 21 -6 Torii Hunter 29 44 15 Carlos Quentin 30 58 28 Matt Joyce 31 30 -1 Nck Markakis 32 51 19 Nick Swisher 33 43 10 Juan Pierre 34 32 -2 Carlos Beltran 35 23 -11 B.J. Upton 36 40 4 Jose Tabata 37 47 10 Michael Bourn 38 N/R N/R Alex Gordon 39 42 3 Ben Zobrist 40 35 -5 Desmond Jennings 41 53 12 Logan Morrison 42 N/R N/R Magglio Orgonez 43 17 -26 Jacoby Ellsbury 44 N/R N/R Franklin Gutierrez 45 N/R N/R Ryan Raburn 46 26 -26 Curtis Granderson 47 N/R N/R Martin Prado 48 60 12 Carlos Lee 49 56 7 Aubrey Huff 50 N/R N/R Andres Torres 51 31 -20 Brett Gardner 52 37 -15 Adam Jones 53 24 -28 Chris Young 54 N/R N/R Austin Jackson 55 39 -16 Vernon Wells 56 55 -1 J.D. Drew 57 N/R N/R Denard Span 58 57 -1 Michael Cuddyer 59 N/R N/R Jason Kubel 60 N/R N/R Chris CoghlanMissing from my list: Drew Stubbs (19), Domonic Brown (22), Colby Rasmus (25), Grady Sizemore (28), Manny Ramirez (29), Vladimir Guerrero (34), Bobby Abreu (38), Lance Berkman (49), Luke Scott (50), Coco Crisp (52), and Hideki Matsui (54).
And now, for something completely different: Fangraphs is hosting a new fantasy baseball service this year. The game is unique in many aspects, including the fact that it's essentially a year-round game. The service retails at $19.99, but if you sign up before March 1, 2011, it will cost only $9.99 to join or create a league.
To that end, Fangraphs was nice enough to set me up as one of the "guest commissioners" for Ottoneu (you may have noticed my league idly existing on the mainpage by now), and I am officially opening my league, on a first-come, first-served basis, to Hardball Times readers who want to participate in what I hope will be a very competitive league. Because I am a traditionalist, my league will be "Old School" format, meaning that it will use the standard 5x5 categories. The league, titled Jeffrey Gross—Hardball Times, will also include Hardball Times fantasy writer Brad Johnson. You can sign-up by clicking here, though you will need to register a login and username first. The password for my league is genius. Do not delay, as space is limited.
As always, leave the love/hate in the comments.
Jeffrey Gross is an attorney (and die-hard Cubs fan) who currently resides in Green Bay, Wisconsin. In addition to writing for The Hardball Times, he also reviews tasty adult beverages as part of a side project titled "saBEERmetrics." He previously worked for The Daily Illini and Northern Star newspapers as a film critic and sportswriter (respectively). You can reach him by email at saBEERmetrics AT gmail DOT com.
Jeffrey,
a ton of work, really useful stuff. Also a willingness to engage with readers opinions, even those you don’t like (Cain!) is appreciated by this reader
P.S. What’s the projection for Pujols as a Cub in 2012? Hopefully about 0.5mil per HR for a 30 for 10 AP5