Tuesday, April 05, 2011
Preparing for week twoPosted by Dave Shovein at 1:32am
Not knowing what to write this week, I’ve decided to take a look at how my team fared in week one, and outline a bit of my decision processes as I prepare for week two.
We are half a week into the season and my NFBC squad Dynamic Inertia has struggled mightily out of the gate. Roughly, over a full week the targets that you want to acquire in this league are as follows:
Hitting: .280 average, 42 runs, 11 home rwns, 40 RBI and 6.5 steals
Pitching: 4.5 wins, 48 Ks, 3.5 saves, 3.65 ERA and 1.25 WHIP
Through the first weekend of games, the only players on our squad who really carried their weight were Russell Martin and Nick Hundley. Waiting until after the 20th round to snag both of our catchers clearly paid off as they combined to hit .455 with a homer, seven RBI and a steal.
Danny Espinosa, Ryan Raburn and Elvis Andrus all brought their bats with them to start the season. Ryan Howard came out of the gate slugging as well, but his home run is the only other one that we would hit.
Carl Crawford, Michael Young, Justin Morneau, Brad Hawpe and Vladimir Guerrero combined to do a gigantic pile of nothing throughout the opening weekend. It is because of their ineptitude that we are currently behind the pace we need to achieve our target totals.
Here’s how we stand through week one:
Average: .287, solid start above the number that we are shooting for
Runs: 15. This number is way on the low side, already putting us six runs off the pace.
Homers: Two. Yuck. Power is the toughest category to make up on offense, and we’re three home runs off the pace to start the season. Hopefully this corrects quickly and we don’t dig ourselves into a gigantic hole here.
RBI: 23, While the home runs were down, our runs batted in are actually slightly above pace.
Stolen bases: One. One stolen base, and it’s from our catcher,l Martin. Crawford, Andrus and Venable need to start getting on base.
On the pitching side, we only had 25.2 innings pitched for the week. Justin Verlander, Chris Carpenter and Matt Garza pitched decently, but none of them could earn a victory. Ryan Franklin blew a save chance Opening Day, and Drew Storen looks like he may be playing second fiddle to Sean Burnett.
On the bright side, Joel Hanrahan did rack up two saves, and seemed to gain in his job security as Evan Meek struggled in the early going.
Wins: Zero. I know it’s only a few days into the season, but this is an area that already concerns me greatly. We’re slightly over two wins off the pace already, and if this doesn’t correct some in the next week, I’m going to need to start looking at the waiver wire to add double starters to make up ground here.
Ks: 30. A solid start in strikeouts, aided by Garza’s 12. Six above the mark heading into week two.
Saves: Two, right on target here. Picking up Contreras in the 27th round should start to pay off in the coming weeks, and we should build up a decent cushion in this category.
ERA: 3.50, not spectacular, but ahead of where we want to be.
WHIP: 1.16, another solid start. Many people don’t pay nearly enough attention to their pitching ratios, but they are the hardest categories to manage over the course of the season. If you let them get away from you, it’s extremely difficult to make them up.
Scouting the free agent market prior to Sunday’s FAAB deadline, we identified a few players who may be able to help our team. On the offensive side of things, we thought we could stand an upgrade at fifth outfielder while waiting for Corey Hart to recover from his injury. I didn’t want to play Brad Hawpe because the Padres play only five games this week, and three of them are against lefties. The best option on the wire was Jon Jay, whom we acquired with a bid of $22 unopposed. The decision now is to play Jay or Rick Ankiel this coming week, and I think we’re leaning toward Ankiel.
On the pitching side, Mike Leake is a player that I had a good deal of interest in for the right price. He’s a double starter this week with two decent matchups. However our bid of $19 fell short by $2. Our decision on the pitching side this week came down to starting J.A. Happ for his double starts, or Michael Pineda or Andrew Cashner for one. Again, my fear of already being behind in wins has led to us going with Happ in the hopes of making up the ground that we lost in week one.
I know it seems like a simple idea to track how your team is doing against the targets that you need to compete for your league title, but you would be surprised how many people don’t bother doing so. Being able to recognize where your team may have weaknesses early in the season gives you enough time to correct the problem without letting it potentially derail your season.
I hope week two brings power and wins, or else we’re going to be seriously scouring the wire in week three!
Comments, questions and insight always welcome, and best of luck to all of you in week two.
Dave Shovein is a graduate student and aspiring fantasy baseball guru. He welcomes all comments and questions at shove1dm AT yahoo DOT com.