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Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Roster Doctor

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 2:04am

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

"I play in a 12-team mixed league with traditional 5x5 Roto scoring with the exception of on-base percentage instead of batting average. It's a keeper league, with up to two players eligible for keeping at the end of the season. The penalty for keeping is you lose the draft round pick of the person you keep (where they were drafted this year). My main concern is my glut of under-performing OF's. I can't bring myself to drop Milledge or Maybin given their potential, this year or next, to have big seasons. I just got Adrian Gonzalez for Dan Haren in a trade (my pitching staff is leading the league in everything but saves) to add some pop to my lineup."

Chris

C Ramon Hernandez
1B Justin Morneau
2B Dan Uggla
3B Adrian Beltre
SS Hanley Ramirez
OF Ichiro Suzuki
OF Nyjer Morgan
OF Justin Upton
Util Adrian Gonzalez
Util Elijah Dukes
BN Matt Holliday
BN Cameron Maybin
BN Lastings Milledge
BN Adam LaRoche
DL Melvin Mora

SP Felix Hernandez
SP Kyle Lohse
RP Mike Gonzalez
RP Frank Francisco
P Clayton Kershaw
P Rich Harden
P Rafael Soriano
BN Ricky Nolasco
BN Zack Greinke
BN --empty--
DL Kelvim Escobar

The roster doctor is in today and happy to report that he is now really a doctor (Ph.D.). But given his current last-place showing in his main fantasy league, he is perhaps practicing for the moment without a license. That said, Chris, I think even a witch doctor could diagnose your problems.

I think you're fine holding on to Maybin and Milledge, assuming you didn't draft them incredibly high (thus hurting their keeper value) and assuming that the outfield waiver wire in your league is suitably thin. I would start Holliday over Morgan despite the former's recent trouble. You have more than enough speed on you roster without Morgan. Beside stolen bases, Morgan's currently high OBP might help, but past performance is no guarantee for the future in such a short sample.

Perhaps a better way to get some oomph out of your hitters is to upgrade your third base situation. I'm guessing you're going to start Mora now that he's off the DL. But in a 12-team league, there must be several teams with two third basemen better than either one of yours. So, you should probably be able to find another team willing to part with one for a trade.

Lastly, what the heck is Greinke doing on your bench? Start him over Kershaw. And an empty bench spot? Pick up a young gun or a Jarrod Washburn and let him take up space for a while.

Jonathan Halket is an economist in New York. He welcomes questions and comments here.


Comments

Mark said...

I have a feeling that Greinke’s not really on the bench, but rather we’re just a particular day on this roster when he was rotated out of an active roster spot.

The empty bench spot is a wasted resource, though, unless your league has very restrictive add/drop limits.

Posted 04/29  at  09:58 AM
dylan said...

Looks like there are 23 positions on each team, so with 12 teams, ~280 players are on rosters. So there should be a couple of useful guys on waivers. Since you can only keep 2 players, I would have to imagine Hanley would be one of them( he should be worth a 1st round pick next year no problem), and could easily see a couple of other players here who would be more wothry depending on where they were drafted. I can’t really see how either Maybin or Milledge are worthy keepers as their value going into next years draft might be similar to where you got them this year. I would see what you could egt in return for either from the other managers in the league, and if not much, just drop them for someone who will preform better this year.

Posted 04/29  at  02:44 PM
Jonathan said...

Keeping Hanley would cost a 1st round pick (assuming he was drafted in the 1st round this year), so it would depend on where he’s drafting next year and whether Hanley is still worth a 1st pick.  If he’s drafting 1st overall, for example, then he wouldn’t keep Hanley.

Posted 04/29  at  02:47 PM
Chris said...

Thanks for taking a look at the roster. As for Greinke- I’ve been starting him since I got him in a trade for Kevin Gregg soon after he was anointed closer. His performance allowed me to let Haren go in favor of Gonzalez.

Posted 04/29  at  10:50 PM
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