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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Staff rankings: Starting pitchers, part two

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:09am

We promised more starting pitchers, and below we follow through with our rankings of starting pitchers, 35-70. The following writers have ranked their top 70: Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson, and yours truly.

We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'. I speak for at least Josh Shepardson and myself when I say that we will continue to update our rankings on FantasyPros and Twitter, perhaps, throughout Spring Training and the coming month (and change). Keep on the lookout for updates, and, as always, assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings. Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round.



































2012 Starting Pitchers Rankings
Player NameNick
Fleder		Ben
Prichett		Josh
Shepardson		Brad
Johnson		THT
Composite		FantasyPros
Expert Consensus
Ricky Romero3934403536view
Chris Carpenter3837383637view
Brandon Morrow4039363738view
Ubaldo Jimenez4240324139view
Max Scherzer3641374240view
Shaun Marcum3738493841view
Jaime Garcia4154413942view
Jeremy Hellickson4545434043view
Johnny Cueto4436555444view
Tim Hudson4347475545view
Hiroki Kuroda4943484846view
Jhoulys Chacin5044594547view
Derek Holland4858425148view
Wandy Rodriguez5248514349view
Clay Buchholz5961464650view
Bud Norris6877524451view
Luke Hochevar547344–52view
Chad Billingsley6381456453view
Ted Lilly4666–6754view
John Danks564664–55view
Ervin Santana4763545056view
Ryan Dempster–85634957view
Brandon McCarthy5149535758view
Erik Bedard6675505959view
Colby Lewis6250616560view
Roy Oswalt5751575261view
Vance Worley7052––62view
Jair Jurrjens6153–6163view
Doug Fister535560–64view
Edwin Jackson6059–5365view
Scott Baker5557685866view
Mike Minor6772566067view
Justin Masterson5860695668view
Trevor Cahill6456676269view
Johan Santana7267587070view

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Tomorrow... Relievers

Nick can be reached for questions, comments, or concerns via email: nick.fleder AT gmail DOT com.


Brad Johnson said...

Thoughts:

Bedard and to a lesser extent Oswalt strike me as misranked. I think I’d rather have 110 innings of Bedard than 200 innings of most of the guys on this half of the list.

Posted 02/22  at  09:18 AM
Shauntell said...

Luke Hochevar? Really?

He struck out less than 6 batters/9 last season, and plays for the Royals.

Posted 02/22  at  10:33 AM
Brad Johnson said...

I’m with you, I didn’t even see his name on the list. I wouldn’t even use him for match up plays and I typically pick up around 30 of those per season per league (which means I have to scrounge with some pretty bad pitchers sometimes).

I haven’t done a top 100 list, but Hochevar probably wouldn’t be on it.

Posted 02/22  at  10:45 AM
Bill said...

Hochevar is on there because of his strong second half.  Depending on the league, I’d probably take some much safer guys like Danks or Santana, but he does have the prospect pedigree and was excellent down the stretch (57:17 K:BB from August on, in 60 IP).

Posted 02/22  at  10:56 AM
Paul said...

Morrow and Scherzer in the top 40 strikes me as a bit aggressive. What exactly have they done to warrant a ranking here other than destroying my WHIP every year? Until they show consistency I will stay far away or wait for him to fall way lower in the draft. Heck I can draft Burnett in the last round and get a similar k rate.

Thoughts on Marcum? Ranking seems fair, but anyway he can increase that strikeout rate to move up into a better tier?

And I am also sleeping on Minor. Any specific reasons why the consensus put him here? What stands out in his peripherals?

Posted 02/22  at  11:06 AM
DD said...

R. A. Dickey finished 6th in the NL in Wins Above Replacement in 2011.  He played only 3/4ths of the 2010 season in the major leagues, so his 2010 WAR number isn’t as impressive, but he did manage to finish 7th in Earned Run Average.  Dickey pitched last year when he could barely walk, and pitched well; he is an odds-on favorite to out-perform two thirds of the names on your two lists, yet his name doesn’t appear on either of them.

In his Historical Abstract Bill James discussed how the baseball minds of the time consistently undervalued Phil Neikro, even when he was the top performing pitcher in the National League, which he was several years.  One might have thought that such prejudice was behind us, with all the advancements in statictical analysis, but no.  Dickey can’t crack your list; and recently John Sickels listed the top pitchers by WAR, to make a point about player development, and HE simply skipped over Dickey too.

Prejudice is a weakness.  Free your mind!  Isn’t that the point of all this analytical effort?

Posted 02/22  at  11:10 AM
Brad Johnson said...

I feel like I’ve been playing that Hochevar game for 3 years. There’s always something you can squint at and like, but come the end of the year, I’ve used him for 3 starts, 12 IP, 8 R, and 4 K against 3 very bad offenses.

If a guy can’t reliably perform against terrible teams, then he’s not worth my time. Maybe I’ve just caught all the outliers, but that would be quite the coincidence.

On Morrow/Scherzer -

Morrow still has that underlying breakout potential which is dragging up his ranking. I’m looking to pay under $10 for him fwiw.

I didn’t like ranking Scherzer 42, but I find that if I manage my k/9, then I can make the rest of the stats follow suit. He’s essentially at the top of a mediocre tier based purely on his K rate.

Posted 02/22  at  11:11 AM
Brad Johnson said...

Forgot to comment on Minor. He strikes out a lot of guys and has decent control. That’s enough to make up for the large amount of uncertainty surrounding his opportunities and ability to prevent runs.

DD - If I were building a real life roster, I might like Dickey a lot more. But we’re talking about a 37 year old who is a medical freak, pitching without a one of his elbow tendons. That’s worrisome on the injury front. Then take his fantasy peripherals - bad strike out rate, terrible supporting cast in a tough division (read - no wins), newly shortened fences, and a mediocre WHIP. The total package isn’t worth any investment.

Posted 02/22  at  11:18 AM
Ben Pritchett said...

@Brad- I don’t think you can even count on 100+ innings of Bedard. Even if you take out his missed 2010 season, he has only averaged 94 innings in the last three seasons he’s played. Granted that he can be talented when he actually plays, and I don’t usually care about an injury risk. I just can’t justify an injury certainty. That’s why he’s so low on my list. I’d rather have A.J. Burnett for strikeouts or a talented middle reliever like Tyler Clippard or Sean Marshall for consistent greatness. I’ll get my strikeouts elsewhere.

Posted 02/22  at  11:41 AM
Ben Pritchett said...

@DD- I’m with Brad on Dickey. He’s a far better real-life pitcher than a guy you can count on in fantasy. I will say, however, that he has tremendous value in NL Only leagues where owners will undervalue his skill set.

And, I totally agree with Bill in regards to Hochevar, but I don’t think that his August/September merits an extremely high rank. I have him at 73 which I think is fair considering he is showing some promise and is 27-years-old. But you can’t disregard his checkered history and the fact that he is the ace and will have to match up with every team’s best pitcher.

Posted 02/22  at  11:47 AM
Mark Himmelstein said...

@Paul

I do see Marcum upping his strikeout rate.  Check out these two articles.

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/7/21/956509/updated-expected-strikeouts-based

http://razzball.com/nerd-speaka-my-language-fantasy-starters-who-will-increase-or-decrease-strikeouts/

The first one is the source material from 2009, the second applies it to 2011.  Basically matthan at draysbay built a formula based on SwStrike% (separated into in-zone and o-zone), C-Strike%, Foul%, and InPlay% that correlates VERY strongly to strikeout rate, as a way of trying to identify over/under performers.  Marcum falls solidly into the “under” category last year. 

I think he’s undervalued.  Should also benefit from the Brewers’ improved defense.  Actually, to be more precise, I’m not sure he’s vastly superior to some of the guys ranked ahead of him on these lists—there are a lot of arguments to be made that there are tons of potential bargains in the ~30-40 range—but at the very least, I see a pretty steep dropoff from Scherzer/Marcum/maybe Garcia to Hellickson/Cueto/Hudson.

Posted 02/22  at  11:51 AM
Brad Johnson said...

Ben, #1s barely face other #1s more frequently than than other pitchers. I think that research was done by a THT writer but it could have been BPro too.

Posted 02/22  at  11:53 AM
Brad Johnson said...

Yea, can’t find the article I’m referring to.

Posted 02/22  at  11:55 AM
Ben Pritchett said...

@Paul-

Scherzer/Morrow- Agree with Brad 100 percent, but I’d probably pay a little more than 10 dollars for Morrow, and I think Scherzer has a taller ceiling that he may.

Shaun Marcum- Marcum is an oddity. He has that elite potential, but I think people worry about his health. I also worry about his career BABIP seems due to correct in a negative manner (WHIP gets inflated). He faded down the stretch in 2011 and forgot how to be dominant. With all that said, he still a steady, consistent pitcher that is still in his prime years. If his fade wasn’t injury related, he could very well crack the top 30 SP list by season’s end. I probably won’t be targeting him.

Mike Minor- He’s a smart pitcher that should get every opportunity to succeed even though the Braves are very talented at starting pitcher. He’s the only lefty they have, and I have to think they want him in that rotation. He has gained a tremendous strikeout upside even though he didn’t exhibit that in college. I like his skills, but he may or may not put it together in 2012. I think he’s a speculative play which is why he’s outside my top 70, but you can’t sleep on him.

Posted 02/22  at  11:58 AM
Ben Pritchett said...

Interesting Brad. That’s has never registered with me.

Posted 02/22  at  11:59 AM
Dave Shovein said...

I can understand the arguments for not liking Fister, but his ranking here is absurd. I have him 45th on my SP list, and I thought that might even be a bit too low.

To have Dempster and Bedard higher than him is mind boggling to me

I’m also buying Scott Baker and Johan Santana this year and have them much higher on my board.

Posted 02/22  at  12:22 PM
Brad Johnson said...

The nice thing about SP is that the rankings are always very diverse.

I wouldn’t pay more than a $1 for Fister.

Baker I could see buying, although he’s inconsistent year to year. If we’re talking minimal $5 type investment, I could see jumping on the Johan train. There’s maybe a 10% chance he makes you look very smart, a 40% chance that he’s serviceable over 100-150 IP, and the remaining 50% covers the outcomes where he never pitches a useful fantasy inning.

Posted 02/22  at  12:29 PM
Daniel said...

I think that Holland deserved to be a bit higher. I’d definitely move him up into the top 35.

Posted 02/22  at  12:38 PM
Randy said...

I like the ranking of Romero ahead of the rest of this bunch. I think he has the ability to make the top 30 fairly easily, and he has more breakout potential than teammate Morrow. His K’s aren’t quite high enough, but he’s shown flashes and has performed particularly well against division foes, which is often cited as a knock against him (that he pitches in the AL East). If he can get the K rate up a bit and sustain it, it will be enough given how well he performs in other categories.

Posted 02/22  at  12:44 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

Updated tentative top 75 (breaks indicate tiers):

Rank   Player Name
1   Roy Halladay
2   Clayton Kershaw
3   Justin Verlander

4   Tim Lincecum
5   Cliff Lee
6   Felix Hernandez
7   CC Sabathia
8   Zack Greinke
9   Jered Weaver
10   Cole Hamels
11   Dan Haren
12   David Price
13   Madison Bumgardner

14   Stephen Strasburg
15   Matt Moore

16   Jon Lester
17   Mat Latos
18   Adam Wainwright
19   Yu Darvish
20   Michael Pineda
21   Matt Cain
22   Brandon Beachy
23   Anibal Sanchez
24   James Shields
25   Max Scherzer

26   Yovanni Gallardo
27   Daniel Hudson
28   Ian Kennedy
29   Josh Beckett
30   Jordan Zimmerman
31   Chris Carpenter
32   Matt Garza
33   Cory Luebke
34   Shaun Marcum
35   Gio Gonzalez

36   Ubaldo Jimenez
37   C.J. Wilson
38   Josh Johnson
39   Scott Baker
40   Tommy Hanson
41   Alexi Ogando

42   Ricky Romero
43   Jeremy Hellickson
44   Jaime Garcia
45   Jhoulys Chacin
46   Colby Lewis
47   A.J. Burnett
48   Hiroki Kuroda
49   Mike Minor
50   Ryan Dempster
51   Ricky Nolasco

52   Brandon Morrow
53   Bud Norris
54   Ryan Vogelsong
55   Gavin Floyd
56   Justin Masterson
57   Ted Lilly
58   Tim Hudson
59   John Danks
60   Wandy Rodriguez
61   Brandon McCarthy
62   Johnny Cueto
63   Edwin Jackson

64   Doug Fister
65   Roy Oswalt
66   Erik Bedard
67   Clay Buchholz
68   Carlos Zambrano
69   Tim Stauffer
70   Ervin Santana
71   Chad Billingsley
72   Bartolo Colon
73   Jake Peavy
74   Chris Volstad
75   Derek Holland

Posted 02/22  at  01:15 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...

I like a pair of Santanas more than most here. For most of the 5-8 guys in front of him, there are fair arguments against Santana, but at the same time, I think you could also make an argument for him being as many as 10 or slots higher. Wandy Rodriguez and Jhoulys Chacin have a way of consistently finding their way onto my teams; this year I have a feeling Ervin Santana might too.

Also, I think you have to willing to gamble much more highly on Johan Santana. I’m buying! I can understand if you don’t want to project him ahead of many of these guys, I’d actually draft him ahead of several of the guys ahead of him simply for the ceiling.

Posted 02/22  at  02:39 PM
Ron Washington said...

Without looking at any stats, it makes no sense that Vogelsong, Jackson, Bedard, Zambrano, Stauffer, Colon, Peavy, and Volstad are ranked ahead of Derek Holland.  How can that be? Can some explain?

Posted 02/22  at  10:14 PM
Brad Johnson said...

The one thing I’ll say about Marcum is that I don’t like investing in guys with skill sets that usually fail. I’m all over guys like Marcum and Duchscherer when they’re relatively free, but if I have to pay, he can be someone else’s burden.

Posted 02/22  at  11:04 PM
Mark Himmelstein said...

@Ron Washington

I can see Jackson and Bedard, maybe Vogelsong Stauffer if I squint, but agree on the others.

@Brad

Yeah I can see that. He’s another one of those guys who I like a lot when I’m thinking about it in the abstract, but don’t really find myself pulling the trigger on. I think in his case its because there are usually other guys I like more available at the same price (usually for the same kind of Duchscherer reason), even though there are also guys I like quite a bit less at the same price too, so in my head I can justify liking him but in practice I’m not too crazy about him.

Posted 02/23  at  12:39 AM
Daniel said...

Derek holland at 75…Behind chris volstad, bartolo colon, chad billingsley, tim stauffer, carlos zambrano, bedard, oswalt, cueto, mccarthy, danks, lilly, folyd, vogelsong,norris, morrow, nolasco, dempster, kuroda, burnett, lewis, chacin, garcia, hellickson, ogando, hanson, baker, jimenez and beachy, Don’t you find that a bit strange. This guy was the best pitcher on his team in the second half of ‘11, without any apparently significant source of luck; in fact his fastball’s velocity went up. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be in that form in 2012. This guy was a huge prospect that people outside of texas seemed to forget the potential of after a slow breaking-in process. I can maybe understand a few of the listed players being ahead of him if you want to be really sceptical, but Colon?? Zambrano?? Oswalt?? Norris? Dempster?? Lewis?? Ogando?? ridiculous. Colon had a good year in 2011, at least im comparison to expectations. Still, it was not as good as Holland even with some early inconsistency from holland. Carlos Zambrano may benefit from a change of scenery and ozzie guillen, but lets face it; he’s carlos zambrano and hasn’t had a good year in several years. Roy oswalt is a former ace and star, but is in his later years and shouldn’t improve from his very holland-liike season in 2011. He will likely continue trending downward in 2012, but even if he doesn’t, if you hand him a 3-5 year contract you are not likely to get more from him than a up-and-coming holland. Bud Norris cut down on his ERA by more than a whole run, but other than that his numbers did not greatly improve. His strikeouts decreased, while is walks got better, and his home run rate increased a little. He also managed a not-so-productive 1.8 WAR compared to holland’s 3.6. There is no more reason to believe norris will get better than holland, and as of 2011 Holland is the better pitcher. ryan dempster had a great year in 2008. But, since then his war had decreased constantly, and his walks and home runs have gone up. Still, he had a good year in 2011, posting a nearly identical tERA, SIERA, and xFIP to holland. He is, though, 35 while holland is ten years younger. Who would you prefer: An upward trending young fireballer or a 35 year old who has decreased in value consistency since turning 30. Colby Lewis, a fellow pitcher in texas, Raised eyebrows with his year in 2010 when he got off running after a trip to Japan. He became the clear #2 on the staff, but in 2011 suffered the worst season on the rangers. The only pitcher with an era over 4, he allowed the most home runs in the american league. He also lost 30 strikeouts in nearly the same amount of innings. I’m not saying that 2010 was a fluke, but if you compare the seasons of Holland and Lewis in 2011, the only excuse for ranking lewis 30 places higher is that you think Holland will suffer collapse in 2012. Alexi ogando is another pitcher on the rangers staff. This is the craziest of all of the rankings, as I won’t even go into how Holland had a better 2011 season, but the fact is…he is very likely going to a relief pitcher for years to come! You don’t rank a relief pitcher in the top 50 starting pitchers. I have objections to more players being ranked ahead of Holland, but those are the most substantial. At least move the guy a couple of tiers up, will ya Jeff?

Posted 02/23  at  08:34 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Hochevar haters

As you can see, I’m buying into him.  I’ve written about him as a sleeper in a few locations this offseason including here: http://www.fantasypros.com/2012/02/fantasy-baseball-sleepers-pitchers/

In short, he was a different pitcher post All-Star break.  The biggest notable change he made was ramping up his slider usage, and the gains he made were massive.  He jumped from a 4.57 K/9 in the first half to a 7.71 K/9 post (79.1 innings, so it is still a small sample, but it’s not tiny).  He’s always shown good control and a plus groundball rate, the only thing missing was strikeouts.  Now that he’s throwing a pitch that generated a 22.6 percent whiff rate, those strikeouts should be here to stay.

Posted 02/25  at  12:26 AM
Daniel said...

Wait, are you talking about hochevar or holland?

Posted 02/25  at  09:05 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

@ Daniel,

I’m talking about Hochevar, but I also love Holland.  He had an excellent summer.  My lone concern is his huge leap in usage.  Otherwise, I like Holland a lot.

Posted 02/25  at  09:19 PM
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