Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Starting opposing pitchers (Part 1)Posted by Paul Singman at 5:01am
By their nature, wins are fickle. Yes, a correlation does exist between wins and ERA, but I've seen great pitchers finish seasons with few wins and mediocre pitchers rack up wins like bad jokes in a Will Ferrell movie. How else could Joe Saunders finish 2009 with 16 wins and a 4.60 ERA while Randy Wolf gets only 11 wins out of his 3.23 ERA?
|Pitchers with better ERAs will get more wins per game than pitchers with worse ERAs, though since the r = .48, ERA determines only roughly half of whether a pitcher gets a win (Click to enlarge).|
There are other factors besides a pitcher's skill level such as innings pitched per start, bullpen strength, and offensive runs per game that influence how often a pitcher will get a win; however luck still plays a large role in the way wins are distributed. Therefore it is smart to not draft for wins since luck is unpredictable.
There are times, though, in daily Head-to-Head leagues when you need to harness the power of wins to become victorious in a particular week. Such times typically occur on Saturday nights when you are trailing by one in the wins category and are setting your lineup for Sunday. Despite the unpredictability of wins, there is a strategy you can use to increase the chance you will earn at least one win and that is by starting opposing pitchers.
Just to make it clear, opposing pitchers are two starting pitchers who are pitching against each other in the same game. So for example in the first Yankees-Red Sox game of 2010, the opposing pitchers will most likely be C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett. The advantage of starting opposing pitchers in getting a win might not reveal itself right away so allow me to dazzle you with some math that will make clear the advantage.
Starting pitchers as a whole could have earned 2,430 wins in 2009 since there are that same 2,430 total games played in a season and one win is awarded per game. Instead of getting 2,430 wins though, starters earned only 1,706 wins, meaning 724 wins were lost to relievers. What this means is that 70 percent of the time, the win will go to one of the starting pitchers while there is a 30 percent chance a reliever gets it. This 70-30 ratio is fairly stable from year to year. With a 70 percent chance of the starters getting the win, each starter then has a 35 percent chance of getting the win assuming each pitcher is league average.
From a fantasy perspective, starting opposing pitchers offers a unique opportunity to garner wins at a higher rate. When starting both starting pitchers, you have a 70 percent chance of earning a win for your fantasy team. When starting two random pitchers however, you only have a 45.5 percent chance*. Why then would you not always start opposing pitchers if it gives you a extra 25 percent chance to get a win compared to starting two random pitchers?
*For the less mathematically savvy among us, I got to 45.5 percent by first finding the chance both pitchers get the win (.35 * .35 = 12.25%) and then finding the chance both pitchers do not get the win (.65 * .65 = 42.25%). The chance then, that one pitcher gets the win is 100 minus the sum of those percents which is 100 - (12.25 + 42.25) = 45.5 percent.
The answer is that your win potential is capped at one win with opposing pitchers, but with random pitchers there is the chance you earn two wins, a 12.25 percent chance to be exact. Therefore the two-win potential reward of random pitchers balances the decreased chance of getting one win and also the increased chance of getting zero wins.
Back to fantasy
It is time to take a step back and understand how opposing pitchers can be utilized in fantasy leagues in a practical sense. It is important to note that, over the long run, starting opposing pitchers will not necessarily result in more wins because of the two-win potential of two random pitchers. Starting opposing pitchers can come in handy though in the scenario I detailed towards the beginning of the article, and that is in a Head-to-Head league with daily roster updates.
If all you need is one win and there is a game in which both pitchers in that game are obtainable, theoretically you would be increasing you odds of getting that win by starting both of those pitchers as opposed to two starters in different games. However what's true in theory is not always true in practice and since all teams, pitchers, offenses, and bullpens are not created equal, the question becomes how much of a decrease in pitcher skill should you accept in order to start two opposing pitchers?
It should be obvious that even if Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are not opposing each other you would still want to start them since they earn wins at above the average 35 percent rate; however, a point must exist where the difference in pitcher skill is overshadowed by the advantage starting opposing pitchers offers. I understand that this pursuit is limited in its practicality since it can only be used in a certain league type in a somewhat rare situation, but for me, it is pursuits like this that make fantasy baseball so enjoyable.
Paul has been managing fantasy baseball teams for many seasons and writing for THT Fantasy over the past three years. He is currently a student at UPenn welcomes readers' thoughts at his email here or in the comments below.