Monday, May 20, 2013
The daily grind: 5-20-13Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:35am
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Pitcher (to start): Scott Kazmir is currently posting some of the best peripherals of his career. The only blemish is an extremely elevated HR/FB ratio: 21.2 percent of fly balls have left the yard.
Jake Odorizzi will make his first start as a Ray today. He was posting solid numbers in Triple-A, including a strikeout rate above nine per nine innings and a walk rate around three per nine. He may be in the rotation for only a few starts while David Price is out.
In terms of expectations, Odorizzi will probably provide top waiver quality output—something like eight K/9, four BB/9, a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His ownership could shoot up quickly since he's a prospect.
I saw Jeremy Guthrie was facing the Astros today and then I saw he's owned in 61 percent of leagues. I hope about 40 of that 61 percent picked him up as a stream starter, but I know better. Tsk tsk.
Pitcher (bum): There are a couple epic exploits in play for today.
Zach Duke versus Ryan Vogelsong promises fireworks aplenty.
Josh Lindblomt—a relievert—is starting against the A's today.
Alex Sanabia tends to bend but not break. He's a good bet to allow four runs on five innings.
Shaun Marcum is coming off his best outing and could be in the process of turning the corner. I'm going to continue betting against him for the time being.
The Yankees should enjoy a reunion with Freddy Garcia.
Hitter (power): Travis Hafner has dropped off his epic pace, but you can try him out against Garcia.
Domonic Brown is a solid play against Sanabia.
Play the Seth Smith and Brandon Moss train today, although they'll face a mix of righties and lefties.
Eric Young Jr. will start against lefty Patrick Corbin. You may also want to try Gerardo Parra against Jon Garland.
Pitcher (to start): Matt Garza is 59 percent owned, but in the leagues where he is not owned, this may be your one shot to scoop him up.
Jose Fernandez barely qualifies for a recommendation at 48 percent owned. He's done well against the Phillies in two outings and they may be without Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz.
Go ahead and stack Angels against Aaron Harang.
The Cardinals will face erratic righty Edinson Volquez.
Tyler Cloyd has been roughed up by Triple-A lineups worse than the Marlins all season. For daily league owners, this might be a rare opportunity to lean on the Marlins offense for cheap points.
Mike Pelfrey's looking pretty ugly this year. The Braves aren't likely to go hungry tomorrow.
Juan Francisco will bring his hard swing against Pelfrey.
Dan Straily has struggled with command, making him a solid match-up for David Murphy.
Jonny Gomes will get to face another non-elite lefty in Jose Quintana.
Did you know that "the Royals are 5-0 when Wade Davis allows four runs or fewer but 0-3 when he does not." Thanks MLB.com. Now try Carlos Pena against him.
Kelly Johnson has a good match-up against Ramon Ortiz.
You can hang onto Parra for his start against Jhoulys Chacin.
Johnny Cueto is back in action today.
Jurickson Profar has been recalled and will start at second base while Ian Kinsler recovers from bruised ribs. It will likely be a short stint on the disabled list, so don't cut a key contributor for Profar. Yahoo surprisingly gave him only UTIL eligibility.
Garza will make his first start of the season tomorrow.
Games in Baltimore and Chicago may see isolated storms today, but the weather seems manageable otherwise.
Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com