Thursday, August 22, 2013
The daily grind: 8-22-13Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:14am
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today’s weather watch
There are a few games with a low risk of passing thunderstorms, but it looks like another clear day.
Today hasn't gotten any deeper overnight. An Andy Pettitte start means you can look into streaming Rajai Davis for a little speed.
Pitcher (to start): Despite a 58 percent ownership rate, Wade Miley isn't somebody to own outright in most formats. He's a roughly league average pitcher and a bit better than fantasy replacement level due to average production in wins, ERA, and WHIP. His peripherals suggest that we should expect a 3.70-4.10 ERA in the future. He faces the Phillies tomorrow, which makes him worth a stream.
I'll mention Ubaldo Jimenez because he has an advantageous match-up against the Mauer-less Twins, but I would also stay away from this one. His suspect command and control make Jimenez an unstable choice.
Jhoulys Chacin has the Marlins tomorrow. Chacin has developed into a bit of a throwback pitcher. He has the capability to strike out batters in bunches but he prefers to pursue weak contact in pitcher's counts. The result is a good pitcher in reality who can be hard to use in fantasy due to low strikeout totals.
Todd Redmond has come out of nowhere with a high strikeout rate and low ERA. He's been fortunate with balls in play and base runners being stranded, so don't get excited long term. Tomorrow he faces the Astros, so do get excited about that.
Martin Perez is the alternative to Redmond. They feature the same whiff rate, but Martin is striking out batters one-third less frequently. He faces the White Sox tomorrow and represents a medium risk, high reward option. The only downside to tomorrow's start is that he's opposed by Chris Sale.
John Lackey and Ricky Nolasco are set to square off tomorrow. Both lineups are good enough that owners need to be wary, but both pitchers have talent and consistency. As a bonus, the game will be played at Chavez Ravine which can only help the pitchers.
I took a closer look at Charlie Morton after a reader asked about him and he's certainly worth monitoring more closely. The Roy Halladay clone is seeing a career best velocity while burning worms at a prodigious rate. He's similar to a guy like Chacin in that he won't reap strikeouts in bunches, but he's also on a better team that can support him with wins.
Pitcher (bum): I'm betting against Yovani Gallardo for now, especially against a lineup like the Reds.
I'll say it again, Jordan Lyles will one day be a solid fantasy pitcher—barring injury. Tomorrow is not that day.
I suspect Edwin Jackson is going to be very cheap in drafts next season. It's hard to figure out if his poor numbers are more than just bad luck, but he keeps firing clunkers with consistency. He's coming off a long outing, which is why I list him here. He's opposed by the Padres and Edinson Volquez.
Hitter (power): Give Junior Lake a look against Volquez.
Try Justin Smoak against Garrett Richards.
I might be a little late on this recommendation. Khris Davis is getting challenged by opposing pitchers and he's taken advantage by posting excellent power numbers. Those will decline, but expect him to be a good waiver option for home runs and RBIs for the remainder of the season.
Christian Yelich will face Chacin.
Darin Ruf will see the left-handed Miley.
Hitter (speed): Will Venable is paired against Jackson.
Rajai Davis will get regular work with Jose Bautista on the disabled list.
Pitchers to come
Saturday: I've been saying Hector Santiago against the Rangers all week as Saturday's top pick, but I think I'll audible to Scott Kazmir against the Twins. It's still an ugly day for streaming.
Sunday: Sunday is looking mighty deep. I'll trumpet Ivan Nova against the Rays and leave the rest as a surprise.
Monday: It's the usual shallow mess on Monday. It looks like Zack Wheeler is the name to watch at the moment.
Jason Heyward will be out for the next four to six weeks after breaking his jaw. This will open some opportunities in Atlanta's outfield. For fantasy purposes, this should benefit the catcher position since Evan Gattis will see more frequent play.
Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com