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Wednesday, June 10, 2009THT’s Top 100 ProspectsPosted by Matt Hagen at 1:13pm1. Matt Wieters / C / Baltimore / MLB / 5/21/86 / ETA: 2009 / High: #1 / Low: #1 / This Week: -- 2009 Thoughts: I’m not worried about his Triple-A numbers at this point. They will pick up. If you are in need of catcher help, save your waiver wire position for a June call up. Expect Wieters to immediately join the top tier of catchers. Average Year Projection: .304 / .399 / 28 HR / 29 2B / 2 3B / 101 RBI / 87 R / 84 BB / 93 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .326 / .430 / 34 HR / 34 2B / 3 3B / 112 RBI / 99 R / 96 BB / 78 SO / 4 SB / 2 CS Notes: 4/30/09 - There’s not much more that needs to be said about Wieters. He’s a superstar. I fully expect the Orioles to use him in a DH role during his “off” days. The main comparisons I keep hearing are Joe Mauer and Mark Teixeira. I look at him more as Mike Piazza with plus defense and the advantage of being a switch hitter. People forget about how much of a complete hitter Piazza was. Wieters has the same makeup, and should have a longer career. Fifteen years from now baseball historians will be arguing over who the best catcher of all time is: Johnny Bench, Yoggi Berra, or Matt Wieters. 5/16/09 - Three home runs and six RBI’s over the last two games. The power is very real, and it will be coming to a major league city near you shortly. 6/24/09 - We're off to a decent major league debut, apart from an unusually low walk total from the young man. Expect him to really heat up as the weather does. If your fantasy team is in need of a catcher, go get him. Hope that his current owner has soured a bit due to sixty-five average debut at-bats. 8/27/09 - His lackluster first season has not swayed me. Wieters should be among the top tier catchers in the league next year. But his draft status may not reflect that. Take advantage in all fantasy formats. This kids all-around bat is too good to be held down for long. 2. Tommy Hanson / SP / Atlanta / MLB / 8/28/86 / ETA: 2009 / High: #2 / Low: #2 / This Week: -- 2009 Thoughts: Look for him to supplant the rotation spot of either Jo-Jo Reyes or Kenshin Kawakami in June, if the Braves can hold out that long. He will be a very useful starter in fantasy leagues. Don’t bank on ace-like numbers this year, but it’s possible. Average Year Projection: 207 IP / 3.19 ERA / 1.17 WHIP / 16 W / 8 L / 202 SO / 181 H / 62 BB Prime Year Projection: 224 IP / 2.33 ERA / 1.04 WHIP / 20 W / 6 L / 244 SO / 183 H / 51 BB Notes: 4/30/09 - I may be overly optimistic, but this kid just seems to have the “it” factor. He’s 6 feet, 6 inches, 220 pounds with three big league pitches, including a mid-90s fastball and a devastating curveball. The Braves strike again. He will run into some control issues early in his career (most do), but I am fully expecting an ace career out of Tommy Hanson. 5/5/09 - Dominated an over-matched Pawtucket lineup two starts ago with just average control. Took care of Syracuse in his latest outing, which featured ten strikeouts in six innings. At this point, there is no doubt in my mind that he is the best pitching prospect in baseball. 6/13/09 - The Braves couldn't hold back any longer. Hanson has made two major league starts, neither one all that impressive; although, in his latest outing he was able to overcome five walks on his way to allowing only two runs over five and two-thirds innings. The strikeouts are there and, long-term, I have zero worries about two tough outings to start his career. 7/9/09 - A 2.85 ERA over 41 innings is impressive. His 25 strikeouts coupled with 20 walks... not so much. But, most importantly, he looks like he belongs with the big boys. He brings a fearless persona to the mound. 3. Stephen Strasburg / SP / Washington / N/A / 7/20/88 / ETA: 2010 / High: #3 / Low: #3 / This Week: New 2009 Thoughts: It doesn't look like Strasburg will see the majors this year, but I'm expecting at least a taste of life at Double-A. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 8/19/09 - Washington played their cards right and got a deal done with the most hyped pitching prospect in history. They knew Strasburg wouldn't walk away from a record setting deal of any sort, and now Washington D.C. is officially back on the baseball map. 4. Jason Heyward / OF / Atlanta / Double-A / 8/9/89 / ETA: 2010 / High: #4 / Low: #16 / This Week: +1 2009 Thoughts: I expect the Braves to play it conservatively with Heyward. He’ll stay at Myrtle Beach for the most part, to great results. You may see a Double-A promotion toward the end of the year. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 5/5/09 - Five tool prospect with the stats to back it up. If he brings his current production up to the Double-A level he will shoot up my list, but, like everyone below the Double-A level, I have to temper my expectations. Very good prospect, though. He has that “perennial all-star” feel about him. 6/24/09 - The teenager has put up steady numbers for Myrtle Beach this season. His true breakout hasn't hit yet, but his skills are elite, and the summer months could be kind to young Heyward. 7/9/09 - Heyward has taken his five-tool talent to Double-A Mississippi. Keep a close eye on him. He could breakout, and I won't hesitate to catapult him up the prospect board if he does. 8/5/09 - Jason Heyward is a nominee for Minor League Player of the Year. Various injuries have hindered Heyward's statistical season, but when he has been on the field few have matched his production. The Braves' young star may find himself at the top of this list if he can put together a monster August, which is certainly within his capabilities. I have been hankering for more steals out of him, but his power, contact skills, and plate discipline leave little room for complaint. 5. Matt LaPorta / OF/1B / Cleveland / MLB / 1/8/85 / ETA: 2009 / High: #3 / Low: #5 / This Week: -2 2009 Thoughts: The man is mashing at Triple-A. Expect him to be a full-time player after a June call up. He will give your team a great boost, a la Jay Bruce in 2008 and Ryan Braun in 2007. Average Year Projection: .282 / .365 / 31 HR / 31 2B / 1 3B / 104 RBI / 86 R / 77 BB / 124 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .302 / .390 / 36 HR / 34 2B / 2 3B / 120 RBI / 102 R / 88 BB / 113 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Notes: 4/30/09 - He’s not only the best power hitter in minor league baseball, but he has good contact skills and a strong eye at the plate. A true middle of the order hitter. He will be a passable defender at either left field or first base. He’s durable and a good clubhouse guy. Analysts are sleeping on LaPorta. He’s 24 already, but I’m not concerned. His prime is near. 5/5/09 - I’m not thrilled with Cleveland calling up LaPorta at this time. It puts him in limbo. All signs point to LaPorta simply getting sent back down as soon as Travis Hafner comes off the DL. I was hoping for a permanent call up later this year. On the bright side, LaPorta crushed his first big league dinger. There will be plenty more to come. 6/13/09 - LaPorta is back in Triple-A doing his thing. Expect him to be back up with the Indians sometime this summer. 6. Jesus Montero / C/1B / NY Yankees / Double-A / 11/28/89 / ETA: 2011 / High: #4 / Low: #11 / This Week: -2 2009 Thoughts: Expect him to stay at Advanced-A Tampa throughout 2009, where he will continue to display his raw power potential and work on his catching skills. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 4/30/09 - His hitting prowess is starting to come into full bloom. The Yanks want to keep him behind the plate, which will take time. Hopefully his bat won’t stagnate while it waits for his glove to catch up. But it could turn out to be time well spent, obviously. A year or two from now he could be sitting where Matt LaPorta is right now as the best power hitter in the minor leagues. Ultimately, his best asset is his youth, which could be a gift or a curse. 6/13/09 - Montero was promoted to Double-A recently, to mixed results. Essentially, he has been catching then DHing off and on all year. It will be interesting to see whether that trend continues or if he will slowly get more playing time behind the plate. It's the hope that he will stay at catcher that has him riding this high on my board. 7/9/09 - His power has come alive and his plate discipline is making strides. The young man gets a bump up the board. 8/5/09 - Montero suffered a broken finger while catching. He will miss the rest of the year... but what a year it was. He gets another bump up the board in celebration of his breakout season. He will enter 2010 among the truly elite prospects in the game. 8/5/09 - Jesus Montero is a nominee for Minor League Player of the Year. Montero will miss the rest of the season, but his impact has been felt. He won't win, due to the injury cutting into his stats, but he deserves the recognition. He has been playing the toughest position on the field, and been making progress in that regard, while his offense has ascended to a tremendous level. Perhaps most impressive of all, this 19-year-old has just 47 strikeouts in 347 at-bats. 7. Madison Bumgarner / SP / San Francisco / Double-A / 8/1/89 / ETA: 2010 / High: #4 / Low: #7 / This Week: -1 2009 Thoughts: If he continues to dominate, which I believe he will, a ticket up to Double-A is all his. And I can’t wait. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 4/30/09 - I’m not afraid to admit it; I have a man crush on Madison Bumgarner. I love his work ethic. His secondary pitches will get better. They will have to if he wants to continue this level of dominance at the Double-A level. He possesses an easy arm action and strong mechanics. His plus fastball has great movement. His command is off the charts for a kid his age. He not only has ace potential, he has “best pitcher in all of baseball” potential. But because he’s so young and hasn’t seen competition beyond A-ball, I have to rank him below Hanson and Price at this time. 5/17/09 - His first Double-A start was a success, although just two strikeouts in six innings could be a cause for concern. His changeup and breaking ball need to catch up to his fastball, otherwise the dominant A-ball numbers may not carry forward. 6/13/09 - His Double-A stint has been every bit as dominating as I expected. Keep it up, Mad Man. 8/5/09 - Madison Bumgarner is a nominee for Minor League Player of the Year. Madman successfully carried over his unreal Single-A performance from last year. Advanced-A San Jose didn't provide much of a challenge, but Double-A Connecticut has at least slowed down his utter dominance. He has a 2.01 ERA over 76 innings there, but his strikeouts are down and his walks have trended upward. The young man just turned 20-years-old and has been fantastic, but not the shoo-in minor league MVP some were expecting. Not unless his strikeout rate goes through the roof, which is unlikely this late in the season for a kid his age. 8. Chris Tillman / SP / Baltimore / MLB / 4/15/88 / ETA: 2010 / High: #6 / Low: #8 / This Week: -1 2009 Thoughts: Expect him to stay at Triple-A all season, to great results. But I’ll be watching to see how Triple-A hitters adjust to his stuff. Average Year Projection: 196 IP / 3.67 ERA / 1.26 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 179 SO / 184 H / 62 BB Prime Year Projection: 209 IP / 2.93 ERA / 1.14 WHIP / 17 W / 8 L / 212 SO / 187 H / 52 BB Notes: 4/30/09 - He's really showing his potential with his move to Triple-A this year, and I’m impressed. He has a strong repertoire, even though it may not be elite. He has the history of good results that I love. He’s a big, strong kid with good mechanics. His intangibles and confidence really make me believe. 5/17/09 - Tillman dominated Syracuse on May 12th, including ten strikeouts in six innings. Some people are still sleeping on this kid, and that’s a mistake. 7/9/09 - Baltimore's ace in waiting hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. His phenomenal season has officially catapulted him into the upper tier of pitching prospects, which is now four deep. 9. David Price / SP / Tampa Bay / MLB / 8/26/85 / ETA: 2009 / High: #4 / Low: #9 / This Week: -1 2009 Thoughts: They will keep him down at Triple-A for as long as they can, but I’m expecting a June or July call up. He may go to the bullpen, as the big league rotation looks strong. I’m not counting on a big fantasy season due to the unpredictable situation. Average Year Projection: 198 IP / 3.70 ERA / 1.28 WHIP / 15 W / 9 L / 190 SO / 184 H / 69 BB Prime Year Projection: 212 IP / 2.91 ERA / 1.17 WHIP / 18 W / 8 L / 226 SO / 188 H / 61 BB Notes: 4/30/09 - I'm slightly concerned about Price’s stamina. Control issues could keep him from truly succeeding at the major league level for a couple of years as well, but by the time he’s 26 or 27 I’m expecting a No. 1 pitcher to emerge. Some are concerned about a sore elbow he had in 2008. I’m not; his mechanics are solid. He’s a strong competitor with ideal size and a nasty fastball/slider combo. Playing in the AL East will ultimately hurt his fantasy appeal. 5/3/09 - Price’s latest performance stood out, but for all the wrong reasons. The control issues are real, and his poor start to the season could send him on a slippery slope. His mechanics look consistent. Are his Triple-A problems all in his head? I will be monitoring his progress carefully. 6/13/09 - His four-game big league stint has been a mixed bag. He has shown tremendous competitiveness and tenacity, resulting in only five earned runs in nineteen innings of work. But his control issues are still there, and, frankly, they scare me. Stay tuned. 7/9/09 - Price's major league ERA has finally caught up with his peripherals, and, for the first time, the average fan is seeing that Price is not the pitching prospect to end all pitching prospects. He still has a lot of work ahead of him. He is in danger of falling further down this list, as there is very little separating him from some of the top-notch talent below. 10. Carlos Santana / C / Cleveland / Double-A / 4/8/86 / ETA: 2010 / High: #10 / Low: #39 / This Week: +1 2009 Thoughts: Anticipate a full season at Double-A Akron, and another series of stats similar to his 2008 season. Average Year Projection: .266 / .359 / 24 HR / 32 2B / 1 3B / 94 RBI / 82 R / 86 BB / 101 SO / 1 SB / 1 CS Prime Year Projection: .278 / .378 / 29 HR / 34 2B / 1 3B / 103 RBI / 91 R / 97 BB / 92 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS Notes: 5/18/09 - There are numerous catchers that post breakout numbers every year, before failing to replicate their performance the following season. I was a bit skeptical of Santana heading into the year, and thought that he might fit that category. His poor start to the year seemed to indicate so. But he has had a great May, especially from a plate discipline perspective. He has 23 walks compared to just 16 strikeouts, and plenty of pop in his bat to make him an exceptional prospect. I will not doubt Santana any longer. However, I do doubt his short-term major league playing time, as he is blocked behind the plate by Victor Martinez, and even blocked at DH by Travis Hafner. I have 2011 listed as his estimated time of arrival, and it pains me to do so. But, as it turns out, a lot of catchers don’t become big league regulars until they’re 24 or 25. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m really starting to question the way Cleveland is using their top prospects lately. 8/27/09 - Legit through and through, Santana's bat could catapult him to elite status in time. And the baseball world may get a glimpse of it in 2010. Despite his impressive Double-A season stat line, personally, I still want to see more contact ability and a bulkier batting average before I pay my man crush membership dues. 11. Mat Gamel / 3B/OF / Milwaukee / Triple-A / 7/26/85 / ETA: 2009 / High: #6 / Low: #11 / This Week: -2 2009 Thoughts: The man is off to a torrid start. Last year was no fluke. It’s hard projecting a call-up date for Gamel due to his defensive inadequacies, but he will be called up at some point as long as Milwaukee stays in the race. When that happens, expect a platoon situation at 3B where Gamel receives the bulk of the starts against right handers. Average Year Projection: .293 / .361 / 24 HR / 43 2B / 5 3B / 94 RBI / 88 R / 66 BB / 113 SO / 6 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .312 / .395 / 29 HR / 47 2B / 6 3B / 107 RBI / 99 R / 73 BB / 102 SO / 9 SB / 3 CS Notes: 4/30/09 - Gamel sports an impressive, pure swing. He has progressed at every stop he has made on his way up the minor league chain. I just feel like this guy can’t miss; his bat is too good. I view him as a poor man’s Chipper Jones, although I have serious doubts about his ability to stick at third base. A corner outfield position is in his future. But his bat and ability to spray the ball all over the field have caught my eye. 5/17/09 - Gamel’s call up came at a curious time. He will most likely DH when Milwaukee travels to Minnesota in a few days, but after that they won’t need a DH until mid-June. Will he receive playing time at 3B? Will he eventually be sent back down? It’s hard to get a gauge on the short-term situation. Barring unforeseen circumstances, though, he will be with the big club when August and September roll around. 5/19/09 - Ask and ye shall receive. Rickie Weeks has been lost for the year, which will have a domino effect on the Brew Crew. Craig Counsell and Bill Hall will now see time at second base, allowing Gamel an opportunity to play some third base; and if he rakes during his opportunities it will be impossible to keep him off the field. 8/5/09 - Gamel moves one slot ahead of Smoak based on some sneaky stolen base potential. But Milwaukee ranks among the bottom feeders in the league when it comes to stolen bases. With the athletes they possess, speed should be a part of their offensive game plan. The front office and coaching staff should wake up soon enough. 12. Brian Matusz / SP / Baltimore / MLB / 2/11/87 / ETA: 2010 / High: #12 / Low: #39 / This Week: -- 2009 Thoughts: Baltimore is taking it slow with their prized pitcher, but Matusz will face Double-A competition before the year is up. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 5/20/09 - I can’t believe Matusz isn’t pitching for Double-A Bowie. His mechanics have been questioned in the past, so maybe Baltimore is trying their best to make sure he has success while he adjusts his delivery. I haven’t seen enough of him to know if that’s the case, though. I’ll make sure to catch up on everything Matusz when he is promoted; as Double-A is the best current test for a player of his caliber. His fastball is average, but his full repertoire is outstanding, including a potentially potent slider, curveball combination. 6/13/09 - He has been the most dominant Advanced-A pitcher in recent weeks. When is the promotion coming? I'm salivating. 7/9/09 - Matusz has received his promotion, and it has been met with dominance. He could be right there with Tillman in Baltimore's impressive pitching ranks by the time the season is up. 8/5/09 - Brian Matusz is a nominee for Minor League Player of the Year. Matusz dominated A-ball competition, prompting a necessary bump up to Double-A Bowie. A dominant stint there solidified his status among the game's top prospects. Over 8 starts in the Eastern League Matusz went 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA. In a surprising move, Baltimore brought him up to test his stuff against big league competition this week. If he stays in the big leagues for the rest of the year he will lose rookie status. And, unfortunately, when it comes to awards season, it may be hard to justify handing the Minor League Player of the Year award to a young man that has only pitched 113 innings over 19 starts. He is the front runner, though. 8/27/09 - I severely underestimated Baltimore's front office. Back in May, I was the guy complaining about Matusz's High-A purgatory. A few months later, I'm witnessing a young man trying to hold his own against the big boys. While he is struggling with his pursuit, Matusz's potential is undeniable. He has truly become one of the elite pitching prospects in the game. 13. Brett Anderson / SP / Oakland / MLB / 2/1/88 / ETA: 2009 / High: #13 / Low: #53 / This Week: -- 2009 Thoughts: After a slow start, Anderson is beginning to figure out big league hitters. His raw talent is taking over. He is a strong back of the rotation starter for the rest of the fantasy season, with an even brighter future ahead of him. Average Year Projection: 201 IP / 3.51 ERA / 1.26 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 175 SO / 195 H / 59 BB Prime Year Projection: 215 IP / 3.08 ERA / 1.18 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 212 SO / 201 H / 52 BB Notes: 7/22/09 - I should have known better. I've been sleeping on Anderson all year after his mildly poor start. He is starting to figure out the major leagues, and it shows in his attacking approach and confidence on the mound. If you're in a keeper league and you bought low on Anderson, I praise you. 14. Justin Smoak / 1B / Texas / Triple-A / 12/5/86 / ETA: 2010 / High: #6 / Low: #14 / This Week: -4 2009 Thoughts: Unless an injury strikes the big league club, expect Smoak to spend the entire year between Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Oklahoma City. And if his early results are any indication, he will mash wherever he plays. Average Year Projection: .302 / .386 / 25 HR / 36 2B / 1 3B / 94 RBI / 82 R / 79 BB / 114 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .323 / .416 / 30 HR / 38 2B / 2 3B / 108 RBI / 97 R / 88 BB / 105 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Notes: 5/5/09 - My love for Chris Davis during his 2007 season paid off, as his true breakout into elite territory came in 2008. Another blue chip hitter is climbing up the boards, but Justin Smoak certainly didn’t come out of nowhere. How this guy fell as far as he did in the 2008 draft is anyone’s guess. He reminds me a lot of Mark Teixeira, but I’m still waiting on bigger signs of Smoak’s power potential. If his power upticks (he has the potential) his stock will skyrocket even further. The thing that really blows me away with Smoak is his patience and approach at the plate. He will be a good all-around major league hitter. 6/24/09 - Smoak has put his oblique strain behind him. Need proof? He went 3 for 3 and cracked two home runs in his first game back. 8/27/09 - I have been among Smoak's most aggressive supporters, all the while keeping in mind that his power has not yet developed. And it still hasn't. I drooled over his Double-A dominance, but his game still has holes; most prominently that pesky and alarming lack of power, especially from a first baseman. Smoak will spend more time in Triple-A next year before he gets his full time big league opportunity. 15. Travis Snider / OF / Toronto / MLB / 2/2/88 / ETA: 2009 / High: #7 / Low: #15 / This Week: -1 2009 Thoughts: Although he is having some success at the major league level, don’t expect anything more than a No. 4 outfielder provides in your average fantasy setup. Average Year Projection: .281 / .363 / 25 HR / 34 2B / 2 3B / 94 RBI / 83 R / 72 BB / 138 SO / 4 SB / 3 CS Prime Year Projection: .298 / .383 / 30 HR / 37 2B / 3 3B / 106 RBI / 92 R / 80 BB / 126 SO / 5 SB / 3 CS Notes: 4/30/09 - I like the taste of success that he is experiencing in the majors this year. It gives me confidence in his ranking. It will take a few years to reach his potential. He whiffs a lot more than I like, but he is a true professional hitter. His defense will play in left field, and that is a sigh of relief for many fantasy owners. I don’t see as much pure power as some are predicting, but I like him and feel safe with his major league prospects. 6/13/09 - Snider was sent down to Triple-A Las Vegas in late May. He put up some lackluster stats over the period of a week before heading to the DL due to a bad back. Right now, it's hard to get a gauge on the extent of the injury. Here's to hoping that some news is on its way. 7/9/09 - Snider returned to Las Vegas' lineup on July 2nd. After a slow first couple of games back he has turned up the dial with two home runs and five RBIs in his two most recent games. 8/27/09 - In 2009 Snider has shown that he can be a productive big league regular, and he has plenty more untapped potential beyond that. The 21-year-old will have an unchallenged slot in Toronto's lineup from the outset of 2010. Expect improved numbers across the board and a hit of the stardom that could follow. 16. Mat Latos / SP / San Diego / MLB / 12/9/87 / ETA: 2010 / High: #16 / Low: UR / This Week: -- 2009 Thoughts: Latos, with his immense potential, has torn through his first, true full year of professional action. His dominant 2009 has him knocking on the Padre's door. Average Year Projection: 189 IP / 3.50 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 13 W / 10 L / 175 SO / 179 H / 64 BB Prime Year Projection: 200 IP / 3.04 ERA / 1.22 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 206 SO / 185 H / 58 BB Notes: 7/15/09 - Latos has shown ace qualities for a few years now. His large frame supports his plus stuff perfectly. San Diego has babied him a bit, but they have released the reigns this year; so much in fact that it has been reported that Latos will join the big league Padres upon their return from the All-Star break. The promotion seems a bit silly to me, as I don't understand the reasoning behind starting his arbitration clock in order to help a last place team. But I am excited for Latos and his potential for dominance in his new stomping grounds, Petco Park. 17. Donavan Tate / OF / San Diego / N/A / 9/27/90 / ETA: 2012 / High: #17 / Low: #17 / This Week: New 2009 Thoughts: Expect Tate to get his feet wet at the rookie level. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 8/19/09 - San Diego has signed themselves one of the more gifted position players in recent years. As long as they let his numerous tools develop properly, we could be looking at the next Jason Heyward, superstar level outfield prospect. 18. Gordon Beckham / 3B/2B/SS / Chicago White Sox / MLB / 9/16/86 / ETA: 2009 / High: #17 / Low: #25 / This Week: -1 2009 Thoughts: I anticipate a full year of minor league ball, to good results. A September call-up could be in the cards. Average Year Projection: .292 / .365 / 18 HR / 37 2B / 5 3B / 80 RBI / 88 R / 62 BB / 106 SO / 10 SB / 4 CS Prime Year Projection: .306 / .383 / 23 HR / 40 2B / 7 3B / 89 RBI / 97 R / 70 BB / 99 SO / 14 SB / 5 CS Notes: 5/11/09 - I really like his makeup. He doesn’t look like it, but Beckham is a pure ball player. He will be one of those pesky, tough outs, a la David Eckstein and Aaron Miles. But unlike those two, Beckham has some real pop in his bat, especially for a shortstop. Look for a typical season to net J.J. Hardy-esque stats, except Beckham should churn out a better batting average, better plate discipline, and more speed. In other words, a very good fantasy shortstop. 6/13/09 - Beckham has pushed himself all the way to the big leagues in a short period of time. Unfortunately, his 28 at-bats have only resulted in two hits. Even more concerning, it looks like the White Sox might be serious about keeping him at third base. 19. Colby Rasmus / OF / St. Louis / MLB / 8/11/86 / ETA: 2009 / High: #11 / Low: #27 / This Week: -1 2009 Thoughts: Humble beginnings emanating from a prized prospect have ruined the reputations of countless players throughout the years. I don’t expect a breakout later this year after his slow start, but his reputation remains strong in my eyes. Average Year Projection: .279 / .359 / 21 HR / 39 2B / 5 3B / 89 RBI / 98 R / 75 BB / 104 SO / 8 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .291 / .379 / 27 HR / 42 2B / 7 3B / 95 RBI / 108 R / 85 BB / 93 SO / 11 SB / 3 CS Notes: 5/19/09 - His .300/30/30 potential has taken a hit over the last two years, but, to a degree, his bat is playing at the major league level, especially recently. He has hit two home runs and driven in five RBI’s over the last four games, but he has a long way to go in order to make up for his poor start. His dynamic set of skills has yet to show itself, but time is certainly on his side. Over the long haul he may fly under the radar, but by the time he hits age 25 or 26, his five tool potential may be fully on display. A good long-term investment. 7/9/09 - Rasmus has somewhat quietly put together a strong first half. His projections and ranking deservedly get a boost. Everyone is still waiting for his speed to come into play, though. 20. Elvis Andrus / SS / Texas / MLB / 8/26/88 / ETA: 2009 / High: #19 / Low: #44 / This Week: -1 2009 Thoughts: Andrus' adjustment to the majors has gone better than expected, and Texas couldn't be more pleased. One of the bright, up and coming shortstops in the game. Average Year Projection: .272 / .328 / 7 HR / 20 2B / 10 3B / 55 RBI / 85 R / 47 BB / 88 SO / 34 SB / 5 CS Prime Year Projection: .292 / .353 / 9 HR / 26 2B / 12 3B / 62 RBI / 94 R / 56 BB / 81 SO / 41 SB / 6 CS Notes: 7/15/09 - Coming into the year, I wasn't sure how well Andrus' bat would play in the majors at such a young age, but the kid has held his own. His base stealing ability has taken center stage earlier than expected. There doesn't seem to be much pop in his bat, but Arlington Park will certainly aid his home run production moving forward. With just a couple years of big league experience, Texas could have a throwback, All-Star caliber shortstop on their hands. That is if his defense comes full circle. 7/21/09 - After putting together my projection for Andrus' future, he doesn't look like a traditional lead-off hitter. Maybe in his prime, but right now he looks more like a #2 hitter. But the stolen bases coupled with a solid batting average should lead to a strong fantasy future for this everyday shortstop. 21. Pedro Alvarez / 3B / Pittsburgh / Double-A / 2/6/87 / ETA: 2010 / High: #21 / Low: #41 / This Week: +4 2009 Thoughts: Alvarez is a young man who was supposed to be fast-tracked to the majors. Instead, a poor start has kept him in Advanced-A Lynchburg. Whatever Alvarez’s problems are, expect him to put them behind him as the year goes on, and anticipate a Double-A Altoona finish to a strong summer. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 5/20/09 - I love the walks he’s drawing and the home runs he’s parking, but every other part of his stat line makes me go “blah.” He should be dominating the Carolina League. So, what’s the problem? His swing simply doesn’t look as crisp or fast as it did during his pre-injury period last year at Vanderbilt. The injury he suffered was a broken hamate bone in his right hand, one of those notoriously tough injuries to come back from. If I was to guess, I would say it’s the injury that is slowing him down. I’m hoping a strong summer puts his promising career back on track. 22. Buster Posey / C / San Francisco / Triple-A / 3/27/87 / ETA: 2010 / High: #12 / Low: #22 / This Week: -2 2009 Thoughts: He won’t stay in San Jose for long, but where will he end up? It wouldn’t surprise me to see Posey get a shot with the big club when rosters expand in September, just so he can get a taste. He needs to get it done in Double-A and Triple-A first, but he is a guy who should move fast. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 5/5/09 - I want to see Posey promoted. Right now. I believe he will have no problem adjusting, but I have to know for sure. He projects to be an overall plus hitter, especially when comparing him to other catchers. I like to compare him to current Giant Bengie Molina. And ultimately it may be Molina who is responsible for keeping Posey in the minor leagues. 7/9/09 - Posey is still ripping into Advanced-A competition. Let me throw some numbers at you - Posey sports a .321 batting average, a .957 OPS, twelve home runs, a 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and, for good measure, a 100% stolen base success rate in six attempts. 7/14/09 - Just got word that the promotion is here. Posey is skipping over Double-A and heading for Triple-A Fresno. The Posey excitement just got ratcheted up. 23. Dexter Fowler / OF / Colorado / MLB / 3/22/86 / ETA: 2009 / High: #15 / Low: #23 / This Week: -2 2009 Thoughts: He is a solid No. 3 outfielder, providing good stolen base and runs production. Average Year Projection: .277 / .358 / 10 HR / 38 2B / 7 3B / 64 RBI / 101 R / 77 BB / 109 SO / 34 SB / 9 CS Prime Year Projection: .288 / .379 / 12 HR / 40 2B / 9 3B / 70 RBI / 111 R / 87 BB / 101 SO / 40 SB / 10 CS Notes: 5/5/09 - He is a good leadoff prospect for a team in Colorado that needs one. An exciting player. I am not a believer in his home run power, but he will be aided by the thin air of Coors Field. If you can live without the home run and RBI production, Fowler looks like a strong No. 2 outfielder. 8/27/09 - Fowler's season has been perplexing. His base stealing and plate discipline skills have come full bloom; but his strikeouts, home runs, and batting average are lagging way behind. This young man has a loaded tool box, and if you have the patience to wait it out, you might just end up with the league's best lead off hitter on your hands. 24. Desmond Jennings / OF / Tampa Bay / Triple-A / 10/30/86 / ETA: 2010 / High: #22 / Low: #58 / This Week: -2 2009 Thoughts: Tampa's advanced outfield depth chart is crowded, allowing for little wiggle room. If Jennings keeps opening eyes, though, a shot at Triple-A is a no-brainer. Average Year Projection: .278 / .361 / 10 HR / 38 2B / 9 3B / 65 RBI / 99 R / 72 BB / 104 SO / 30 SB / 8 CS Prime Year Projection: .291 / .377 / 13 HR / 41 2B / 11 3B / 70 RBI / 108 R / 80 BB / 95 SO / 38 SB / 8 CS Notes: 6/24/09 - All of the hype is starting to materialize. The best two things about his current Double-A run are not the eye popping fantasy stats, but two fantastic ratios that scream future success; a 38:31 strikeout to walk ratio and an 87 percent, 26:4, stolen base success rate. There is a lot to like. But will a Tampa Bay outfield opening present itself in the near future? That's something Jennings can't control. 7/21/09 - An elite future lead-off hitter has been born before our eyes. I'm trying to temper my excitement and remind myself that it's just Double-A, but Jennings has put together a season that's hard to top. Tampa Bay's aggressive base running style has them leading all of baseball in stolen bases by a wide margin, making Jennings' future all the more drool-inducing. 8/5/09 - Desmond Jennings is a nominee for Minor League Player of the Year. Jennings' tremendous talent has materialized in 2009. The walks and steals are up, and so is his lead off hitting potential. He reminds me so much of Dexter Fowler, but Tampa Bay is hoping that his power potential is even higher than Fowler's. Yet his power is not fully there right now, and that will hinder his shot at award season hardware. But he was recently promoted to Triple-A Durham, and if the stats keep pouring in he could win by default. 25. Michael Stanton / OF / Florida / Double-A / 11/8/89 / ETA: 2011 / High: #20 / Low: #30 / This Week: -2 2009 Thoughts: The young man should get a shot at Double-A sometime this summer, but Florida won’t rush him too fast, for various reasons. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 5/11/09 - Everyone’s excited about this kid’s potential, and rightfully so. But I pride myself on being a realist; maybe in Stanton’s case I’m being a pessimist. His strikeouts are a huge concern. He takes some walks, but I would like to see more. Maybe that will come with age. He has one of the most powerful bats in the minor leagues, but there are very obvious holes in that swing. Those holes will be exposed in Double-A. Frustration and prolonged struggles could follow. On the other hand, he’s a very hard worker with the ability to adjust. Bottom line, it’s hard to gauge Stanton at this point. Invest cautiously. 6/13/09 - It's time to start really paying attention. Stanton is getting his shot at Double-A pitching. So far his bat has been quiet, but for how long? It's exciting seeing his huge power potential on display against good secondary stuff. 8/27/09 - Many have Stanton ranked up there with Jason Heyward and Jesus Montero on top prospect lists. I just cannot justify placing Stanton that high... yet. Make no mistake, the power is there. Unfortunately, his contact skills and plate discipline are not. The big league sluggers that can't hit for a solid batting average make up for it by taking walks. Stanton has a long way to go before he's capable of playing at that level. 2010 will be another learning year. 26. Michael Saunders / OF / Seattle / MLB / 11/19/86 / ETA: 2010 / High: #23 / Low: #49 / This Week: -2 2009 Thoughts: Saunders has come back masterfully from a shoulder injury that had sidelined him for the first month of the season. Look for a call up sometime this summer. Average Year Projection: .270 / .335 / 19 HR / 33 2B / 6 3B / 83 RBI / 86 R / 61 BB / 112 SO / 11 SB / 4 CS Prime Year Projection: .280 / .360 / 23 HR / 34 2B / 7 3B / 91 RBI / 93 R / 71 BB / 102 SO / 14 SB / 5 CS Notes: 6/13/09 - Saunders is one of the few true potential 30/30 players in the high minors. He has the potential to hit .300 too. But I need to see more development before I believe any of it. I love his ability to recover from injuries, but his injury history is of concern heading forward. I don't think he'll reach his ultimate potential, but he has a bright future ahead of him. 27. Rick Porcello / SP / Detroit / MLB / 12/27/88 / ETA: 2009 / High: #14 / Low: #27 / This Week: -- 2009 Thoughts: I would not want to be in a position where I have to rely on Porcello. Detroit rushed him, and he’s having his difficulties with major league hitters. Average Year Projection: 196 IP / 3.81 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 14 W / 10 L / 147 SO / 191 H / 66 BB Prime Year Projection: 209 IP / 3.12 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 16 W / 8 L / 185 SO / 198 H / 55 BB Notes: 5/5/09 - I like his groundball rate, and a good defense behind him will do wonders. There are concerns about his strikeout ability and makeup. I’m a cautious believer, as the concerns are legit and have knocked him down a bit on my list. As he grows I expect his rangy repertoire of pitches to garner him strong strikeout numbers. But if he falls flat on his face in his first couple of years in the big leagues, will he recover? Detroit rushed him, and I’m concerned. Be a cautious investor when it comes to Porcello. 5/18/09 - It didn’t take long for Porcello to reverse his struggles, as he has dominated during the month of May. But will it be followed by an inconsistent June? He still has a lot to prove, but it’s great to see a successful stretch from the 20 year old. 6/24/09 - Porcello's adaptation to major league hitting has been impressive. Unfortunately, his strikeout numbers have been less than inspiring. I'm starting to have doubts about his K potential, but, if his debut season is any indication, he looks like a strong #2 type starter in the long run. 28. Neftali Feliz / SP/RP / Texas / MLB / 5/2/88 / ETA: 2010 / High: #23 / Low: #32 / This Week: -- 2009 Thoughts: Unless his arm gets under control in a hurry, Feliz may stay at Triple-A Oklahoma City for the rest of the year. We could see some bullpen appearances as well, which is a sight that Feliz owners will frown at. Average Year Projection: 184 IP / 3.73 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 183 SO / 176 H / 68 BB Prime Year Projection: 198 IP / 3.32 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 15 W / 9 L / 213 SO / 185 H / 61 BB Notes: 5/17/09 - His endurance and control are starting to come around. Texas would love to use him as a starter, even though I think he would be at his best coming out of the bullpen, eventually as their closer. Ultimately, we all have to face the fact that he will be pitching in Arlington, which will hinder his chances to produce elite numbers in the majors. I like him but am skeptical of his control, poise, and situation. He has the unbridled talent to prove me wrong, though. 6/13/09 - His walk rate is starting to slow, but so is his strikeout rate. Feliz is always unpredictable. Combine that fact with his electric stuff and you have one of the more exciting pitchers in minor league baseball. In Feliz's case that's not a good thing. Pennant-chasing Texas wants consistency before they hand him a slot in their rotation. 7/9/09 - Feliz's shift to the bullpen has gone marvelously. He is on pace to hit Texas sometime this summer, in the heat of a pennant race, and help out their bullpen in tremendous fashion. 29. Martin Perez / SP / Texas / Double-A / 4/4/91 / ETA: 2011 / High: #29 / Low: #57 / This Week: +12 2009 Thoughts: Perez represents another great find for Texas' organization. The eighteen year old should remain in the South Atlantic League to close out the season, but stardom awaits if he continues to put in the work. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 7/22/09 - Perez is inducing ground balls, striking out more than a hitter per inning, keeping his walks in check, and essentially dominating a league full of hitters that an eighteen year old shouldn't even be facing. 8/27/09 - This kid has made a huge mark on the prospect world. His stuff is ace-worthy and his control is incredibly advanced for his age. He will spend 2010 in the minors, but we could be looking at the next Felix Hernandez-esque teenage phenom. If Perez hasn't yet been claimed in your keeper league, make his acquisition one of your top priorities this off-season. 30. Hector Rondon / SP / Cleveland / Triple-A / 2/26/88 / ETA: 2010 / High: #27 / Low: #33 / This Week: +3 2009 Thoughts His immediate future is shrouded in mystery, as the Indian organization has shifted him to the bullpen in order to presumably get him ready for a roll in the big league pen. He won’t possess much big league value, though, if he does indeed spend some time with the big boys. Average Year Projection: 193 IP / 3.70 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 13 W / 10 L / 178 SO / 184 H / 68 BB Prime Year Projection: 204 IP / 3.25 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 15 W / 9 L / 205 SO / 190 H / 62 BB Notes: 5/19/09 - I loved what Rondon was showing as a Double-A starter. He was putting the whole package together and producing the stats to back it up. Someone in the Cleveland front office must have a screw loose, though, as they continue to play radical prospect games; this time with their best young pitcher. Rondon has been shifted to the bullpen as a way to get him to the majors faster, and he hasn’t adjusted well. I hope the shift doesn’t have a long-term negative effect on the young man, as he has all the tools to be an ace. In many circles he is supremely underrated right now. Strike now before the national media catches on. 6/13/09 - Rondon's bullpen assignment didn't last long, but his last two starts have been lackluster. Is it a bump in the road or a true trend? 31. Logan Morrison / 1B / Florida / Double-A / 8/25/87 / ETA: 2010 / High: #20 / Low: #31 / This Week: -2 2009 Thoughts: A small wrist fracture will keep Morrison out of the lineup until June, but it’s probably one of those injuries that will linger longer than that. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 5/11/09 - I have never been a believer in Morrison’s home run power, but his 2008 season can’t be ignored. At this point he looks like a slightly better version of Casey Kotchman, but he has only had six career Double-A at-bats, so I’m craving more data. I obviously love his ability to hit from gap to gap and for a high average, thus the Kotchman comparisons. My crystal ball tells me that Morrison’s wrist injury will result in a lost season and a fall from the top of many top prospect lists. I’ll try to keep things in perspective. He’s a good hitter, plain and simple. 6/13/09 - Morrison is back, and it looks like he hasn't missed a beat. Watch his Double-A development closely. 32. Andrew McCutchen / OF / Pittsburgh / MLB / 10/10/86 / ETA: 2009 / High: #32 / Low: #60 / This Week: +7 2009 Thoughts: Pittsburgh was able to trade away Nate McLouth largely in part because they felt McCutchen was ready to take over in center field. McCutchen has rewarded the Pirates' confidence with a great first month and a half of play. He is a good #3 outfielder for 2009. Average Year Projection: .287 / .350 / 11 HR / 32 2B / 7 3B / 65 RBI / 99 R / 57 BB / 97 SO / 24 SB / 6 CS Prime Year Projection: .297 / .366 / 14 HR / 34 2B / 8 3B / 70 RBI / 107 R / 66 BB / 89 SO / 30 SB / 7 CS Notes: 7/15/09 - I sometimes forget that McCutchen is still just 22 years old, as he has been on the prospect radar screen for a long time. Since arriving in Pittsburgh on June 5th, McCutchen has taken over as the team's lead off hitter and has had nothing but success. Expect him to grow in his permanent role as Pittsburgh's primary play-maker. His long-term fantasy value ultimately lies in his stolen base and power production, which are both up in the air. But all of the tools that made him a first round pick in 2005 are still there. 33. Jarrod Parker / SP / Arizona / Double-A / 11/24/88 / ETA: 2010 / High: #10 / Low: #33 / This Week: -7 2009 Thoughts: Parker recently received his call up to Double-A, where I am expecting him to remain the rest of the year. The Double-A competition will be a good test for him. Look for his projections soon. Average Year Projection: 192 IP / 3.82 ERA / 1.32 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 166 SO / 186 H / 67 BB Prime Year Projection: 204 IP / 3.16 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 198 SO / 190 H / 57 BB Notes: 5/5/09 - He was too good for Advanced-A ball, so his promotion to Double-A Mobile was warranted. Everyone will now be able to get a real sense for how good this kid really is, and he could be great. His first Double-A outing was subpar. Will he show up next time out? I don’t know, but I can’t wait. The kid has ace potential. 5/18/09 - He has truly joined the elite pitching prospects in the game with his short but so far outstanding Double-A run. The kid is quickly becoming a star. He has great stuff, and he’s putting it on display. One of the more awe-inspiring pitchers to watch right now. 6/13/09 - A recent bout of walks brought some of his stats back to human level. Hopefully his most recent outing, where he didn't issue a walk and K'd nine batters over six innings, is a sign that the roadblock is behind him. 6/24/09 - Parker was struck on his right wrist by a line drive his last time out. Luckily for D-back fans, the injury is just a bone bruise, which may land him on the DL, but long-term ramifications won't be an issue. 8/7/09 - An elbow strain has ended Parker's season. It's the type of injury that is certainly cause for concern. Lets just hope that it isn't more serious than it looks. The uncertainty drops him down the board. 34. Jhoulys Chacin / SP / Colorado / Triple-A / 1/7/88 / ETA: 2010 / High: #28 / Low: #35 / This Week: -2 2009 Thoughts: Don't expect Colorado to be too aggressive with Chacin. They haven't been so far, and it has paid off. He may get a taste of Triple-A, but the Rockies certainly want to see even more success before he gets a glimpse of the majors. Average Year Projection: 195 IP / 3.75 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / 13 W / 10 L / 174 SO / 183 H / 64 BB Prime Year Projection: 207 IP / 3.34 ERA / 1.19 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 200 SO / 187 H / 59 BB Notes: 6/13/09 - Chacin's utterly dominant Advanced-A performance from last year hasn't exactly translated, but he is experiencing another strong season. He is still very young, and with another all-around uptick in his development he will join the absolute elite pitching prospects in the game. 35. Christian Friedrich / SP / Colorado / Advanced-A / 7/8/87 / ETA: 2011 / High: #35 / Low: #60 / This Week: +16 2009 Thoughts: A taste of Double-A could, and should, be in the near future. His dominance of the California League demands it. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 8/19/09 - Not only has Friedrich had an unreal breakout campaign, he is having himself the type of year that could earn some major hardware come awards time. Friedrich has done the impossible and flat out laughed in the face of California League hitters. I would love to see a Double-A promotion. And so would opposing Cal League hitters. Friedrich is rocketing up prospect boards everywhere. Comments |
Since Mat Latos was added, how long until we see Abner Abreu being watched closely, at the very least.