Tuesday, October 04, 2011
THT’s Top 100 prospects
Posted by Josh Shepardson at 5:14pmTo qualify for our top 100, a player had to meet Baseball America's definition of a prospect, which varies slightly from Major League Baseball's criteria for retaining rookie eligibility. A batter must not have exceeded 130 at bats in the majors and a pitcher must not have thrown more than 50 innings or made more than 30 relief appearances.
Remember that this is a fantasy baseball prospect list, not a list of the best prospects in baseball. In fantasy, the only relevance of a player's defense is whether it is going to remain good enough for him stick at his current defensive home, especially when that position is short on talent in fantasy baseball.
A lot of factors went into deciding who should rank where, including a player's ceiling and floor, age, organization, position, and a many others. I tended to lean in favor of players with high ceilings than those with high floors. I also weighed scouting reports more heavily than performance in most cases, though not all. Players at scarce fantasy position got bonus points and ranked higher.
Prospects with 80 grades (using the 20-to-80 scouting scale) either on their present or future power were looked on more favorably than those with 80 grades on any other tool. Prospects with high marks in speed who also show an aptitude for hitting or getting on base—or are projected to do so—also ranked highly.
When it was a close call between a hitter or a pitcher, the hitter usually got the nod. In close calls between pitching prospects, left-handed pitchers rated higher than right-hand pitchers, and younger pitchers were rated higher than older pitchers. The current level that prospects play at played a role, but less so than I would have expected going in.
I'd like to extend a special thanks to Brian Cartwright, who was kind enough to allow me to use his Minor League Equivalent information and provided me with insight that is passed along in the form of "Forecast Notes" below. MLEs can be found as part of the THT Forecasts.
Here are your top 100 fantasy baseball prospects. Check back for updates sometime after the Arizona Fall League season.
1: Bryce Harper/OF/Washington Nationals/10-16-92/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes:35+ HR
Current Level: Double-A (7-day Disabled List with a hamstring strain)
Scouting Notes: Last year's top overall selection in the draft has lived up to his lofty billing as arguably the top prospect in baseball. He opened the year in High-A, no small feat for an 18-year-old, and promptly showed off all of his tools. His power was on display with 14 home runs in 258 at-bats in High-A and he tacked on three more in 129 Double-A at-bats.
In addition to his power tool, which is his greatest asset, he displayed tremendous strike zone awareness with a 59:87 walk-to-strikeout rate between both minor league stops. Perhaps most surprising is Harper's above-average speed, which allowed him to steal 26 bases with a passable seven times caught stealing. At just 18, Harper is built like a Mack truck at 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, but in the event he further fills out as he ages, his speed tool will almost certainly be adversely affected. On the flip side, such maturation may further enhance his power tool ,which projects to rate as an 80 on the 20-80 scale.
With power numbers down in the majors the past few seasons, Harper gets the nod over fellow blue chip prospect Mike Trout for top honors on this list.
2: Mike Trout/OF/Los Angeles Angels/ 8-7-91/ ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes:.300+ BA, 20+ HR
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: For those who like to straddle fences, Trout could easily be considered 1A. He played most of this season as a 19-year-old in Double-A before the Angels promoted him for the first time in July. He raked in the minors, but was unable to carry that over when making the leap from Double-A to the majors. He wasn't entirely overmatched, though, and his second go-round has been much kinder to him.
His greatest fantasy asset is his 80 speed tool. Unlike some speedsters, Trout isn't a one-trick pony. He possesses the skills necessary to hit for average, reach base via the walk, and even hit for above-average power down the line. Five-tool players with an advanced approach at the plate who reach the major leagues before their 20th birthday are a rare breed, and Trout is just that. Gamers who play in leagues with specific outfield designations (i.e. left field, center field, right field) have a strong case to flip-flop Trout with Harper on this list.
3: Matt Moore/SP/Tampa Bay Rays/6-18-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes: Breakout 2011, greatly improved BB/9: 7.9, 5.7, 2.7; 9+ K/9
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: Coming into the season just one facet of Moore's game needed further refining, something he already began to iron out in the second half of 2010: his command and control. Moore has done that this year. shaving a full walk off his 2010 BB/9 rate while maintaining a strikeout rate that would be elite by relief pitcher standards. He toyed with Double-A and Triple-A hitters this year and catapulted himself to top status amongst prospect pitchers.
Moore is a southpaw who comes at hitters with a plus velocity fastball that touched triple digits in the Futures Game, and routinely sits in the mid-90s, a curveball and a change-up. He is the total package, and has the goods necessary to outperform Jeremy Hellickson's impressive (though luck-aided) rookie season.
4: Jason Kipnis/2B/Cleveland Indians/4-3-87/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes:Brian and the Forecast don't like him this high and view him as a solid regular at second base.
Current Level: MLB
Notes: Originally an outfielder, Kipnis has made the transition to second base successfully over the last two seasons. He has done nothing but hit at a high level at each stop along the professional ladder, including his brief time in the majors. He doesn't have one standout tool, but offers teens to low 20s home run power with enough speed to challenge double digit stolen bases yearly. He's striking out far too often at the major league level to maintain a useful average, but it's likely he'll cut back on the whiffs; he had never posted a strikeout rate over 20 percent at any minor league stop. His overall stat line is likely to be bested in prime years by some of the players ranked behind him, but his positional eligibility, blend of skills, and high floor are why he is ranked as he is.
5: Manny Machado/SS/Baltimore Orioles/7-6-92/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Small sample with Machado, but his peak projects to come around 2016-2017 and he looks to be a player who can hit for contact and rip 25+ HR's.
Current Level: Hi-A
Scouting Notes: His stats won't jump off the page, but Machado's full season debut has been solid. Machado is an offensive-minded shortstop who is expected by most to stick there. As a toolsy high school shortstop who played his ball in Miami, he elicited comparisons to Alex Rodriguez. While it's not fair to saddle the youngster with that comparison, he does have a high ceiling in his own right. Most scouting reports project him for mid-teens to low 20s home run power with an average in the .300 range once he fully matures.
His numbers this season may not suggest at an elite level for the offensively devoid shortstop position, but it's important to remember he played most of the year as an 18-year-old and there is a lot of projection and physical maturation to come. Believe the hype, and invest in a premium talent who could find himself atop this list next year if Harper graduates to the majors.
6: Devin Mesoraco/C/Cincinnati Reds/6-19-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: Ready to be in the majors now, projects as a 25-HR type.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: If not for the strong play of Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan, the Reds likely would have summoned Mesoraco prior to September on the heels of his second strong year. It took him a few seasons, but last year Mesoraco began to show his offensive prowess, and that play carried over to this year.
He offers plus power for the catcher position along with an astute eye that has helped him draw walks in over 10 percent of his plate appearances this season. A reasonable comp for Mesoraco would be Carlos Santana, with a bit less pop and current on-base skills. That difference in home run power may not fully show itself as Mesoraco will be playing his home games in a more favorable ballpark for hitting home runs. Reviews of his defense are encouraging enough to expect him to catch for an extended period of time, even if it will be as no more than an adequate defender with a plus bat. In the fantasy game, all that matters is that he retains the "C" next to his name in the lineup.
7: Jesus Montero/C/New York Yankees/11-28-89/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes Two-year slide, but still good at catcher. Glove not Ryan Doumit bad, but bat might not play at 1B/DH until 2013/14.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: He's listed as a catcher now, but it is nearly impossible to find a scouting report that considers Montero as anything more than a designated hitter masquerading as a catcher. Only the most arduous Yankees homers seem to think he can stick behind the plate; thus, he's ranked behind players he would otherwise be ranked in front of should he remain at his current defensive home. Montero's bat was amongst the best in the minors, and at just 21 this year he was young for the Triple-A level.
He offers plus power with projection for more down the road, but not at the expense of average. If he remains a Yankee and isn't used as a trade chip, he should be the full-time designated hitter in 2012. Ideally, at least from a fantasy perspective, he'll also serve as the backup catcher logging enough time to retain eligibility there. The Yankees have a number of aging players inked to long term deals who may be best suited playing designated hitter in the near future, leaving open the possibility Montero's future lies elsewhere. Regardless of where he calls home, both city and defensively, Montero is a young hitter who should be treasured in fantasy leagues.
8: Gary Sanchez/C/New York Yankees/12-2-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Peak year projected in 2017 with a slash of .294/.345/.666 good for a 1.011 OPS!
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Report: His projection seems optimistic, but he's succeeding as a 19-year-old and has superb scouting reports. No questions about his ability to stay behind the plate, and the only thing that prevents him from slotting in just behind the big two is that he's still in the low minors and requires some dreaming on. He possesses plus raw power that is showing itself in games already and a plus hit tool that's still developing. Time is very much on his side, and thanks to his position his ceiling is higher than any other player on this list including Harper and Trout. The Yankees struck gold signing this young Dominican-born catcher to a $3 million bonus.
9: Jurickson Profar/SS/Texas Rangers/2-20-93/ETA: 2013
Forecast NotesGood glove, good contact, .280 BA, .200 ISO.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Profar is an exceptional talent at the shortstop position both in the field and at the plate. Jason Parks and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus are two of his biggest advocates, but the likes of John Sickels and the stable of writers/scouts at Baseball America also yield glowing reviews. He could easily be ranked next to, or even above Machado: His results have been better, he's younger and projects to be above average as an up-the-middle infield defender. I rank him a few spots later because I think he'll be forced to move to second base. In most organizations, there would be no question he'd stick at his current position, but the Rangers have this guy Elvis Andrus already in place, and he's pretty good.
Profar's command of the strike zone is mind-boggling for an 18-yea- old. He walked more than he struck out this year, and done so as a player who hits for pop and not just a slap singles type. The Rangers have set a precedent of aggressiveness with Andrus, indicating that if Profar is up for the challenge, they'll continue to move him up.
10: Miguel Sano/3B/Minnesota Twins/5-11-93/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Elite level power, maybe 40+ HR, but few walks, 100+ K
Current Level: Rookie-Level Appalachian League
Scouting Notes: Sano requires quite a bit of dreaming on to justify this ranking. He crushed the ball in the Appalachian League, but it's his projection for plus-plus power in the future, potentially at third base, that should excite people. The biggest question is where his defensive home will be when he reaches the majors. He has seen time at shortstop and third base, but is a near certainty to be pushed off shortstop as his base fills out and he loses range. He has a strong arm, so third base is possible, but he'll have to further refine his skills there to stick. Even in the worst case scenario, where he is moved to the corner outfield, which is what Kevin Goldstein expects, his power potential puts him a cut above the rest.
11: Hak-Ju Lee/SS/Tampa Bay Rays/11-4-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Great glove (maybe top three in the majors), breakout 2011, .280 AVG with the ability to draw walks, little power.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Prior to the season the Rays dealt Matt Garza to the Cubs for a gaggle of prospects. The highest rated prospect was Chris Archer who was coming off a solid 2010 campaign. The true crown jewel appears to be Hak-Ju Lee, who had a breakout 2011 season.
The primary responsibility of any up-the-middle player is defense, and Lee's is banner. What matters more to fantasy gamers, though, is that he comes equipped with the ability to hit. His power may never show itself as more than average, and his MLEs suggest it won't, but some scouting reports suggest his plus bat speed could result in gap power with some round trippers tossed in as he matures. His speed should allow him to take advantage of his strong on-base skills and steal bases. He's one level below Tim Beckham who is in Triple-A right now, but is the better bet to play shortstop for the Rays when he gets there.
12:Travis d'Arnaud/C/Toronto Blue Jays/2-10-89/ETA 2012
Forecast Notes: MLEs and Brian suggest he rank a bit lower, but he projects to hit in the .250-.260 range with 20-25 HRs.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Behind just Mesoraco and Sanchez, d'Arnaud is an exciting offensively talented catcher. J.P. Arencibia is currently catching for the parent club, and while he's made strides defensively he's still not an asset back there. d'Arnaud is the future at catcher for the Blue Jays and should dispatch of Arencibia. perhaps as soon as next year thanks to stronger defensive skills and better hittinh skills than Arencibia, who relies on an all-or-nothing approach.
13: Trevor Bauer/SP/Arizona Diamondbacks/1/17/91/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes: Brian suggests he may be capable of a 3.5 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9, and I'm inclined to agree based on scouting reports.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: His unorthodox workout regimen and delivery may have caused some concern for teams in the draft, but the Diamondbacks didn't hesitate to select the UCLA Bruins' best pitcher last year, better than No. 1 overall selection Gerrit Cole. Jim Callis of Baseball America had him rated as the top college pitcher, and had him behind only high school flame-thrower Dylan Bundy when rating this draft class' arms.
A right-handed pitcher, he throws his fastball with low-to-mid 90s velocity and can reach back and dial it up to 95-96 on occasion. According to Project Prospect he throws both a two-seamer and a four-seamer, and both are plus pitches. All scouting outlets seem to agree he throws a plus breaking ball, with some referring to it as a curveball and others a slider. Baseball America suggest he throws both and even has a split finger in his tool belt. It is also universally agreed that he throws a change-up. Such a mix of pitches gives him the goods necessary to toy with hitters and go through lineups multiple times. Don't be scared off by his quirky, high-torque delivery. A little guy from the University of Washington has done okay for himself in San Francisco in spite of the same concerns.
14:Julio Teheran/SP/Atlanta Braves/2-9-90/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: 8.1 K/9 MLE in 2010 dropped to 6.5 K/9 in 2010. Strong walk rates at 3.3 BB/9 in 2010 and 3.5 BB/9 in 2011. 3.50 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this year suggest he's ready.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Just 20 years old this season and already made his major league debut. Strong MLEs are supported by scouting reports that love his stuff that includes a premium fastball and two secondary pitches, curveball and change-up, that project to be above average. Not a finished product, but ready for full time major league duty. The best of a crop of strong pitchers in the Braves system.
15: Tyler Skaggs/SP/Arizona Diamondbacks/7-13-91/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: ERA projected at just below 4.00 starting in 2014 with his WHIP settling below 1.30 that same season. His K/9 projects to be 8.0 or higher starting next year with a walk rate of 3.3 BB/9 and improving through 2017.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Skaggs was the prime get in the Dan Haren deal to the Angels. He's a southpaw with a fastball in the upper 80s to low 90s with a frame that may allow him to add a tick or two (though no in season scouting reports around the 'net suggest that has been the case yet). He also throws a curveball that Baseball America graded as the best in the Diamondbacks system coming into the season, and a change-up. His strong play has moved him up prospect rankings and allowed him to surpass teammate Jarrod Parker in most onlookers' eyes.
16: Shelby Miller/SP/St. Louis Cardinals/10-10-90/ETA:2013
Forecast Notes: Breakout season, but walk rate needs further refinement, 4.3 BB/9 in 2010 and regressed to 4.8 BB/9 this year. His strikeout rate remained elite while climbing levels at 9.3 K/9 this year.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Miller is a young pitcher with front line starter stuff that supports his projected high strikeout rate at the major league level and current production in the minors. His best pitch is his heater, but it is supported by a 12-6 curveball and a developing change-up. Positive scouting reports from multiple outlets plus solid forecast. Toss in his current organization, which calls the National League and a home run-suppressing Busch Stadium home, and it is easy to envision him leap-frogging some of the arms in front of him.
17: Anthony Rendon/3B/Washington Nationals/6-6-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Projects to hit for a useful average and power while posting a strikeout rate not typically associated with a player with pop.
Current Level: Unassigned as a 2011 draftee
Scouting Notes: A strained shoulder caused Rendon to log a great deal of time at the designated hitter position for the Rice Owls this season and likely contributed to his drop in power production. Teams appeared to be scared off by his medicals as he slid to the Nationals at pick six. I'm not privy to his medical records, but find it encouraging that the Nationals were confident enough in him to snap him up as a top-10 selection. If there were no medical red flags he'd be higher on this list, though.
With Ryan Zimmerman already at third base, Rendon may be forced to switch position,s with second base being a likely home. The Nationals may also opt to develop him as a third baseman, where his skills grade out as plus, and cross the bridge of determining what to do with him when they get there. Rendon sat atop Baseball America's pre-draft rankings, no small feat as many pundits viewed this draft as one of the more talented and deep in recent years.
18: Drew Pomeranz/SP/Colorado Rockies/11-22-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Breakout season that saw him improve his walk rate to 4.2 BB/9, but a dip in his strikeout rate put it at 7.5 K/9.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Who better to describe his pitching arsenal than Pomeranz himself? Pomeranz's bread and butter is a spike curve that he can use to get hitters from each side of the plate. As a lefty with plus velocity and a plus breaking ball, the foundation is already in place for success. The key is his ability to use his change-up to keep hitters off balance. It's not pre-humidor Coors, but it is still a launching pad so he'll need to turn some of his flyball outs into groundball outs. Overall, a solid debut in professional baseball that points to a promising future if he continues to develop accordingly.
19: Ryan Lavarnway/C/Boston Red Sox/8-7-87/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: 25+ HR
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: Lavarnway's bat is tremendous, and if it can stick at catcher it is elite. When he was drafted, most felt he had nearly a zero percent shot to stick there, but he has worked hard and improved by most accounts. He still has a large number of detractors, but at least he now has a shot. The Red Sox dealt Tim Federowicz, a prospect catcher with a strong defensive reputation but no bat. That may be an indicator that the Red Sox have faith in Lavarnway sticking behind the plate in the short term.
If Theo Epstein re-signs David Ortiz to serve as the team's designated hitter, Lavarnway's only immediate path to playing time, barring injury, will be as a catcher.
20: Nolan Arenado/3B/Colorado Rockies/4-16-91/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: Peak .284/.324/.479, bad defense in 2010 but average in 2011, great contact but few walks.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: A 20-year-old who is moving one level at a time, Arenado has plenty of time to remain on that development arc. Not a lock to stick at third base, but this projection operates under the assumption that his average defense shown this year will allow him to stay there for a bit. Most scouting reports consider his bat the best in the Rockies system. Playing home games at Coors has its perks, and Arenado could be a beneficiary.
21: Jean Segura/SS/Los Angeles Angels/3-17-90/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Expected to break in as a .277 hitter and remain there hitting 10 HRs and stealing mid-teens bases.
Current Level: Rehab assignment for hamstring injury.
Scouting Notes: A player scouts like better than the Forecaster. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus noted in April that he looked good making the transition from second base to shortstop, something that would help his value greatly. He may fill out and lose range, leading to a move back to second base, but at either middle infield position he'll hold fantasy value if his tools develop. He should hit for average power, with an above-average hitting and and above-average speed if everything falls into place.
22: Kolten Wong/2B/St. Louis Cardinals/10-10-90/ETA:2013
Forecast Notes: Good contact with a peak .290/.351/.463.
Current Level:Single-A
Scouting Notes: Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks is a Wong believer but alludes to a potential move to left field that would cripple his value in fantasy. Baseball America also cites his ability to play a super utility type role. Small in stature, but not lacking for pop, he could produce teens home run totals. He's a plus hitter and average speed but good baserunning instincts that could net him useful stolen base totals.
23: Martin Perez/SP/Texas Rangers/4-4-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Too many walks and hasn't put together a major league-quality season yet. Still young and in Triple-A, allowing for a projection of 3.4 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9.
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: As I ranked players using good old-fashioned pen and paper, Perez made me regret not opting for pencil as he was moved on the list often. Like Brian and the Forecaster, I'd like to see more results. That said, it's hard not to get excited about a 20-year-old southpaw in Triple-A with gaudy scouting reports and plus velocity. Baseball America thinks highly enough of him to rank him sixth on its midseason top-50 prospect rankings list.
J.J. Cooper's July 8 midseason top-50 prospect chat wrap addressed a reader's question about Perez's performance citing scouts saying he's shown three plus pitches. Let that sink in for a second: not one, not two, but three plus pitches from a left-handed pitcher with plus velocity and is in Triple-A at 20 Those who have faith in him putting things together would be justified in ranking him higher, and those who wish to see him perform better in games would be equally justified in moving him down the list. This serves as a happy medium ranking.
24: Jameson Taillon/SP/Pittsburgh Pirates/11-18-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Too small a sample size to draw firm conclusions, but he's a young flame-thrower who's striking hitters out while pounding the zone.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Apparently the Pirates said they'd have taken Taillon over Harper if they'd had the top pick. Seems like that might be a creative way for the Pirates to give their 2010 draft pick a pat on the back, but it also speaks to Taillon's talent. He has a power arsenal with a blazing heater, a hammer curveball and a wipe-out slider. He has acclimated himself to pro baseball just fine with a tremendous 94:20 strikeout-to-walk rate in 88.2 innings in Single-A. As pitc her drafted out of high school, and as part of a thrifty ballclub, it's likely the Pirates will bring him along slowly.
25: Jacob Turner/SP/Detroit Tigers/5-21-91/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: Two solid years with good control but only average strikeout rates.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Turner was considered the top high school pitcher in the 2009 draft, and the Tigers promptly snapped him up and paid him an above-slot $5.5 million. He's a three-pitch starter with a fastball around 92-94 mph that can be bumped up a bit when he needs a little extra oomph. Most scouting reports describe his heater as having sink or boring action, which help him induce ground balls. His best secondary offering is a developing 12-to-6 curveball with plus potential and a change-up that could end up being an average big league pitch.
He has moved quickly, and in a perfect world has the package to develop into a top of the rotation starter. His control is quite good, but his strikeout rate leaves something to be desired from a fantasy perspective. The natural fear for those who have followed the Tigers' recent development of pitching arms is that Turner turns into Rick Porcello version 2.0. He hasn't been rushed as quickly, and has struck out more hitters in his brief Triple-A and major league time, so don't rush to that assumption just yet.
26: Carlos Martinez (formerly Carlos Matias)/SP/St. Louis/9-21-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Control issues and poor in High-A in 2011 but has good strikeouts. Projected 3.6 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 4.49 ERA; by 2017 2 WAR
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: Martinez is another example of scouting reports straying from future projection based on current statistical performance. He throws with easy velocity, according to Keith Law, and can hit triple digits on the radar gun. Guys who throw plus-plus velocity heaters that light up the radar gun are few and far between.
Even more exciting is that the pitch is far from straight and has natural cutting action, according to Baseball America. He ranked 18th on its Top-50 Midseason Prospect list, and fourth on Law's. In addition to his exceptional fastball he features a curveball and is developing a change-up. His poor walk rate and high ERA in High-A may allow a buying window on this youngster in dynasty leagues. Once the performance catches up to the stuff, or perhaps if it catches up, he'll be a tough player to pry away from an opposing owner.
27: Dylan Bundy/SP/Baltimore Orioles/11-15-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: 2011 draftee out of high school without a current projection
Current Level: Unassigned 2011 draftee
Scouting Notes: Bundy rates 28th on this list based entirely on scouting reports, as he has no professional experience or forecast projection. He's has a power arm that throws at 94-96 mph and has touched 100 mph repeatedly. The most encouraging part of any Bundy scouting report regards his secondary offerings. His worst is a change-up that is described by most industry folks as average. His other secondary offerings are a plus power curveball and a plus cutter (Sickels describes the pitch as a slider, but Baseball America, Goldstein and Law describe it as a cutter). He's can throw all his pitches for strikes, and is advanced for a prep pitcher. It's a leap of faith tossing a guy with no pro experience this high, but his arsenal sounds like it has all the makings of fantasy ace.
28: Gerrit Cole/SP/Pittsburgh Pirates/9-8-90/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Two good college seasons but walk rate leaves a bit to be desired.
Current Level: Low-A
Scouting Notes: Cole's stuff is much better than his performance in college (which was pretty darn good). He throws a four-seam fastball in the mid-90s and can touch a hair under 100 mph, and a two-seam fastball that's a few ticks slower. He also throws a plus slider and a change-up that some describe as plus-plus. Law goes as far as to lump it at the same level as Johan Santana's and Clay Buchholz's change-ups. Quite high praise. Even more interesting is pre-draft talk from Law as well as Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus that suggested Cole might be as good as, or perhaps even better in the majors than Stephen Strasburg. If that's the case, this ranking will look foolishly low.
29: Taijuan Walker/SP/Seattle Mariners/8-13-92/ ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Projects 4.3 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, and 4.33 ERA in 2015.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Impressive season in Single-A as an 18-year-old who was considered a raw high school pitcher when the Mariners selected him in the supplemental first round of the 2010 draft. In part, he was considered raw because he was a high school basketball player and played shortstop as well. He throws a fastball with heavy sink and premier velocity (can reach 98 mph). As one would expect, that sinking fastball has helped him rack up the groundball outs (1.54 ground out-to-fly out). He also throws a plus curveball and is developing a change-up. His control has been described as spotty by both Goldstein and Sickels, so a 2014 ETA may be a bit ambitious. When he does arrive in the majors, calling Safeco Field home will be a nice perk.
30: Anthony Rizzo/1B/San Diego Padres/8-8-89/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes:Brian is not high on him. Had a breakout 2011 despite major league struggles. Mid-20s homer run totals projected.
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: Rizzo has had a huge season in the Pacific Coast League. Unfortunately, numbers in the PCL are inflated due to friendly hitting environments, so take the raw numbers with a spoonful of salt. Scouting reports aren't all glowing for Rizzo; there are questions about whether he can hit for both power and average. His desire to hit for pop has resulted in more strikeouts and a pull-happy approach.
Possibly a positive to take away from glancing at Rizzo's numbers is a dominance against right-handed pitching and struggles against left-handed pitchers (his same-handed counterparts). If it is simply a matter of needing more exposure and repetition against them, Rizzo could take another step forward in his development. The biggest knock against Rizzo may just be his home ballpark. PETCO is hell on left-handed batters, which is unfortunate because it will lower the ceiling on his greatest fantasy skill. Two years younger than Paul Goldschmidt, Rizzo would rank ahead of him if they played if their games in similar home ballparks. Alas, they do not.
31: Dayan Viciedo/OF/Chicago White Sox/3-10-89/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes:Peak .279/.324/.462 with 22 HR's. Has started taking walks in 2011. -20 fielder.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Much better fantasy prospect than reality one. His glove is bad, really bad as the Forecast suggests, but most reports are that he has made a conscious effort to get in better shape and work on his craft. Also working in his favor is that Ozzie Guillen and Kenny Williams don't seem to give a hoot about defense anyway, playing Adam Dunn, Juan Pierre and Carlos Quentin in the outfield at various times.
Raw power is his calling card, and it has translated to games this year. If things click, he could surpass 30 home runs a year with a passable average in the upper .270s. Those in OBP leagues should bump him down a bit as this year is his first of showing any ability to draw a walk. While that patience is encouraging, it will need to carry over to next season for me to believe he's completely ditched his free-swinging ways.
32: Cheslor Cuthbert/3B/Kansas City Royals/11-16-92/ETA: 2016
Forecast Notes: 25+ homers with few walks.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: Cuthbert doesn't get the due he deserves as part of a loaded Royals farm system. At just 18, he's playing in a full season league and playing well. He has struggled of late, but some scouts believe it's a product of him wearing down. Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks called him a breakout candidate coming into the season. He describes Cuthbert as having "some of the best barrel awareness" he has ever seen in a teen. He uses the whole field as a hitter and has developing power. He's got enough defensive skills to stick at third base as well. He was an honorable mention on Law's midseason top-50 prospect list as well, and is a C+ high upside prospect in the eyes of Sickels.
33: Michael Choice/OF/Oakland A's/11-10-89/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Breakout 2010, but in 2011 walks and power have fallen back. Still projects 30+ HR with peak .271/.351/.520.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: The epitome of Three True Outcomes, Choice has the feel of a younger version of Chris Carter. It would be nice to see him continue to cut back on one of the true outcomes (strikeouts), while increasing another (walks), but his power isn't in question at all. Parks lauds his power potential and bat speed, but notes that he'll always strike out a lot. Goldstein also gushes about the power. In fact, whatever outlet for prospect info you choose to turn to, the story is the same: His power is elite but he'll need to continue to fine-tune his hit tool to succeed at the higher levels of the minors and the majors. His reduction in strikeouts from last year to this year, and from pre-All-Star break to post-All-Star break, is enough reason to buy into Choice.
34: Manny Banuelos/SP/New York Yankees/3-13-91/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Good 2009 at age 18 followed by an average 2010. Way too many walks (4.8 BB/9, 5.7 BB/9) but young enough to be projectable to 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 4.27 ERA in 2014.
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes:The gap between him and the higher-ranked Martin Perez probably isn't as big as this list might suggest. Both are young left-handers in Triple-A with plus stuff, according to industry experts. Banuelos' two best pitches by most accounts are his fastball and his change-up. His fastball resides in the low 90s and can touch 95 mph. He also throws a curveball with plus potential. The biggest concern surrounding Banuelos is his command, which has eroded since moving up the minor league ladder. At just 20, he has time to work that out.
The biggest difference between Banuelos and Perez is that Banuelos will pitch is home games at Yankee Stadium, which is more homer-happy than Rangers Ballpark at Arlington, and in the more treacherous American League East.
35: Jedd Gyorko/3B/San Diego Padres/9-23-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Peak .275/.334/.463 with 20-22 HRs.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Gyorko isn't a great defender, but he's a passable one who won't need to be moved off the hot corner, which immediately makes his offensive success this year more exciting. Most of his home run production came in the hitter-friendly Cal League, but he has done well moving up to Double-A nonetheless, hitting six home runs in 221 at-bats. He squeaked his way onto Baseball America's and Goldstein's MidSeason Top 50 Prospect list, but missed Keith Law's.
He was a college hitter drafted in last year's second round, so low minor league success was to be expected. His complete dominance was better than expectations, though, and his success in Double-A is most promising for future big league success.. Goldstein really likes his bat speed and projects average power. Playing in PETCO is no walk in the park, but right-handed hitters like Gyorko don't have to deal with the soul-crushing home run suppression left-handed hitters do. He has a higher floor and safer projection than most of the third basemen in front of him on this list, but lacks the high ceiling of the others.
36: Nick Franklin/SS/Seattle Mariners/3-2-91/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: A age 20, in 2011 regressed in power and defense. Peak .273/.322/.480 with 20+ HR and few walks.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Franklin is the Sudoku puzzle of prospects. Last year he ripped 23 home runs in his full season debut while swiping 25 bases. This year he opened in the hitter friendly confines of the High-A Cal league and his power took a dive, producing just five home runs in 258 at-bats. The Mariners promoted him to Double-A, and his power output and his hitting in general improved substantially (albeit in a small sample). He's playing passable defense at shortstop, but some, such as Jim Callis, suggest he'll eventually move to second base. He's set to play in the Arizona Fall League, and is the most likely player on this list to see his stock soar or plummet based on his performance there.
37: Bubba Starling/OF/Kansas City/8-3-92/ETA: 2016
Forecast Notes: 2011 Draftee out of high school. No forecast.
Current Level: Unassigned as a 2011 draftee
Scouting Notes: The toolsy Nebraska football recruit chose professional baseball at Major League Baseball's signing deadline. His two-sport prowess limited his opportunities to play in premium high school baseball showcase events, and leave him an exciting piece of clay that needs molding to become something special at the major league level. He's a high-risk/high-reward type who may never be able to translate his physical abilities into baseball skills, or he may take well to coaching and turn into a superstar capable of 30/30 seasons with batting average. Starling's ranking on this list is likely to be polarizing, but at a certain point that tantalizing upside is too hard to pass on.
38: Josh Bell/OF/Pittsburgh Pirates/8-12-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast Notes: 2011 Draftee out of high school. No forecast.
Current Level: Unassigned as a 2011 draftee
Scouting Notes: Many considered Bell unsignable because he and his family wrote to all major league teams before the draft informing them he wanted to attend college at the University of Texas. Ultimately, the Pirates threw caution to the wind when the risk became minimal at the top of the second round, and the gamble paid off as he signed at the deadline.
Bell is a switch hitter who most scouting reports describe as having been the best high school hitter in the draft. Scouts to project him to hit for both average and power. He doesn't offer the same speed upside of Starling, but his chance of failure seems less than Starling's as he has succeeded frequently against the top high school competition available. Power that doesn't require selling out average isn't easy to find in fantasy leagues, making Bell's potential something to covet.
39: Wil Myers/OF/Kansas City Royals/12-10-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Bad 2011 after great 2010 at age 18. Young enough to grow into peak .279/.368/.472
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Becoming a full-time outfielder in place of being developed as a catcher to get his bat to the big leagues faster, and then struggling at the plate in Double-A is a formula for sliding down prospect lists. It's hard to ignore his previous production, and he's young for the Double-A level, so repeating it to start next year isn't the end of the world. Most scouting gurus suggest his solid approach should lead to a high batting average and above-average power. There is some question whether his power will translate to games, but even in a down year there is a lot to like. Don't start selling his stock now.
40: Wilin Rosario/C/Colorado Rockies/2-23-89/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: 20 HR power but .240 average and scarce walks might keep him from a starting job.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Rosario suffered a torn ACL last July that required surgery. His regression, namely in walk rate, can't be completely dismissed, but should probably be excused to a certain extent understanding he may not be 100 percent healthy and still recovering. He's a free swinger, but offers a lot of thump to offset it. His defense isn't in question, so a positional move won't be necessary. Next season should be telling in the development of Rosario.
41: Yasmani Grandal/C/Cincinnati Reds/11-8-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Two good years. Peak .249/.326/.411 with 12-15 HRs.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Grandal's surface numbers are more impressive than Rosario's, but the ceiling isn't described as being as high by most scouting outlets. He's also behind Mesoraco, further hurting his ranking. That said, he's a switch hitting catcher with the potential for plus offensive contributions. Catchers have a wide variety of skills they need to hone in the minors, so they develop at different speeds. He may not take the same leap fellow Reds prospect Mesoraco made because of lesser tools, but even a slight jump in production would be reason for excitement.
42: Brett Jackson/OF/Chicago Cubs/8-2-88/ETA: 2012
Forecast Notes: Peak .254/.324/.428.
Current Level: Triple-A
Scouting Notes: He doesn't have any jaw-dropping tools, but he's average to above average across the board. He's hit his way to Triple-A, and succeeded there in spite of a high strikeout rate that may pose problems in the majors. He can walk some, he can hit for some power and he can steal some bags. In a lot of ways, he resembles a Drew Stubbs-lite to me.
43: Trayvon Robinson/OF/Seattle Mariners/9-1-87/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: Brian is not impressed. Breakout power in 2011. Peak .254/.325/.419.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: Robinson is a similar player in fantasy appeal and upside to the player ranked directly in front of him. Jackson gets the spot above him because he's one year younger and plays in a friendlier home ballpark, but Robinson has switch hitting in his favor. He has a good eye, but struggles to make contact, striking out frequently. He wouldn't be the first player to succeed with high strikeout totals, but he also wouldn't be the first to be derailed by them.
44: Gary Brown/OF/San Francisco/9-28-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Projected 25-30 steals with good contact but few walks and a handful of homers.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: The Giants' 2010 first round pick played tremendously in his full season debut this year. The next step will be succeeding against upper minor league talent. He should be on the fast track to the majors, and if his tools fully develop could be a top-of-the-order hitter. He may not offer more than a handful of home runs (though Kevin Goldstein suggested in a recent podcast he could flirt with 20), but his speed is a clear 80 on the 20-80 scale and should allow him to be a big stolen base contributor (he stole 53 this year). He makes contact at a high rate, and punished the ball in the the offensive-friendly Cal League, hinting at being a batting average contributor in fantasy as well.
45: Christian Yelich/OF/Florida Marlins/12-5-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Peak .267/.334/.407 with 10/10 HR/SB.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: His hitting grades out as a plus, but his power is somewhat questionable. He may develop above-average game power, but that remains to be seen as he fills out and physically matures. He did hit 15 home runs in 461 at-bats in Single-A, which is promising. He also stole 32 bases, but I've yet to find a scouting report that describes his speed as better than average. He was caught only five times, so he may be able to get the most out of that tool with intelligent base running. He should be able to reach base often because in addition to his plus hit tool, he walks frequently (55 walks). If he continues to steal bases in the upper minors, or his power takes a step up, he'll shoot up this prospect list.
46: Jonathan Singleton/1B/OF/Houston Astros/9-18-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Peak projection .288/.372/.500 with good walk totals.
Current Level: High-A
Scouting Notes: Singleton has played first base since the Astros acquired him at the trade deadline, but he played some outfield in the Phillies system before the trade. He's a big guy, but athletic enough that scouts think he could man left field. His power projects to be a plus, and could be a plus-plus tool in the future. Despite his young age, he has already shown the ability to draw walks. If he's a first baseman, his ranking is about right, but if he's developed as an outfielder and sticks, he should be ranked a bit higher.
47: Oscar Taveras/OF/St. Louis Cardinals/6-19-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast Notes: Breakout 2011: good average, ISO, contact, but low walk totals. Peak .300/.345/.497.
Current Level: Single-A
Scouting Notes: He put up video game numbers in Single-A this year, but will be tested in the Arizona Fall League. He didn't appear high on most Cardinals prospect lists coming into the year, but should see his name move up this coming year. He would rank higher, but not all scouting reports are bullish on his future stock, and see his advanced approach for his age being the biggest reason he has been so successful, not outstanding developing tools. Others believe his total package gives him a reasonably high offensive ceiling. Such widely divergent scouting reports makes him tough to peg. If his hitting and power develop to 60 level, he should be higher, but if they fall flat and sit closer to 40, he probably doesn't belong on the list at all. Watch his Arizona Fall League performance, and more importantly, his larger sample of performance moving up a level next year.
48: Starling Marte/OF/Pittsburgh Pirates/10-9-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: .280s type hitter with a little bit of power and speed.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Marte is a tremendous athlete learning to play baseball. He's a plus defender who may force the Pirates to move Andrew McCutchen to a corner outfield position. His most salivating tool, especially from a fantasy perspective, is his plus-plus speed. His success rate (just 66.6 percent) indicates he's still learning, but his 24 stolen bases are solid. His power is average-ish, but he has a chance to contribute a bit in the future.
He hit for a ton of average (.332) in Double-A and projects to have a plus hit tool. The fly in the ointment with Marte is his incredibly aggressive approach at the plate, which may not allow him to fully take advantage of his plus-plus speed and his hitting skill if more advanced pitchers make him hit their pitches. His walk-to-strikeout rate was 22:100 this year; he'll need to learn to be patient if he wants to reach base at a high rate. Walking is considered an old person skill, so there is hope he's able to learn.
49: Anthony Gose/OF/Toronto Blue Jays/8-10-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast Notes: Best MLE wOBA is .290 in 2011. Poor defense record. Peak .253/.317/.394.
Current Level: Double-A
Scouting Notes: Forecast doesn't like his defense, but most scouting grades suggest his best attributes are his range and arm in the outfield, and his speed. His hitting is what comes under the most scrutiny. Some reports suggest he'll be able to make enough contact to take advantage of his speed and post a decent average. Others see a guy who strikes out too frequently to hit for average.
He offers some pop, and is capable of drawing walks. If he's can get on base at even a moderate rate in the majors, he can be an impact stolen base threat with better than negligible power. If he isn't able to cut back on the strikeouts, he'll be a defensive-minded center fielder or fourth outfielder. Either of those scenarios would make him a fantasy non-contributor. The ceiling may not be high enough to offset the floor and justify this ranking. I'm buying in based on the leap he was able to make in stolen base success, and hoping that's evidence of him being coachable.
50: Arodys Vizcaino/SP/Atlanta Braves/11-13-90/ETA: Arrived
Forecast Notes: Two good years. Cut BB/9 to below 3 with a 7.5 K/9.
Current Level: MLB
Scouting Notes: He's a former Yankees farmhand. The Braves are reaping the benefits of the prospect they received for Javier Vazquez. His stuff grades out well by all scouting outlets, and his performance has been tremendous. Just taking those into account, he'd rank considerably higher.
Not all is good with Vizcaino, though, which is why he lands on the list here. Last year he opted to rehab a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament (the Tommy John ligament). Thus far, that appears to have been a good choice. That said, it's possible, if not probable, that he'll tear it completely and require surgery in the future. Another knock against him is that this is his first season eclipsing 100 innings pitched, meaning he still has to prove he can stay healthy and build up his innings.
The last, and not least, knock against him is that being part of a loaded Braves pitching stable makes his future role uncertain. In most organizations he'd be a slam dunk to continue development as a starter, but the Braves have a number of young pitchers both in their major league rotation and knocking on the door. They may use him as a high-leverage late innings reliever to keep him healthy, and not test his small frame's limits. Those who trust his front-line starter three-pitch mix of a plus velocity fastball, curveball and change-up should move him up the list.
Feel free to reach me at my e-mail, JoshShep50 AT Yahoo DOT com with any questions, feedback, or any other general inquiries.
Since Mat Latos was added, how long until we see Abner Abreu being watched closely, at the very least.