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Thursday, May 07, 2009Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects - 5/7/09Posted by Matt Hagen at 10:25pmSend any and all minor league questions or comments to (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). I will get to as many of them as I can in an upcoming Q&A. This week I got a lot of appreciated feedback, and I took some of it to heart. Keep the feedback coming. If you feel strongly about a player, share your thoughts. The Tim Beckham fan club was out in full force this week. Don't worry guys, if he keeps raking he'll keep moving. 1. Matt Wieters / C / Baltimore / Triple-A / 5/21/86 / ETA: 2009 Average Year Projection: .298 / .395 / 31 HR / 30 2B / 3 3B / 106 RBI / 89 R / 89 BB / 93 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .338 / .445 / 41 HR / 35 2B / 4 3B / 124 RBI / 102 R / 103 BB / 78 SO / 4 SB / 2 CS 2. Tommy Hanson / SP / Atlanta / Triple-A / 8/28/86 / ETA: 2009 Average Year Projection: 207 IP / 3.31 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 202 SO / 187 H / 64 BB Prime Year Projection: 224 IP / 2.53 ERA / 1.13 WHIP / 20 W / 7 L / 244 SO / 190 H / 63 BB Notes: Dominated an overmatched Pawtucket lineup two starts ago with just average control. Took care of Syracuse in his latest outing, which featured 10 strikeouts in six innings. Needless to say, Hanson has me feeling giddy. 3. Matt LaPorta / OF/1B / Cleveland / Triple-A / 1/8/85 / ETA: 2009 Average Year Projection: .282 / .368 / 31 HR / 28 2B / 1 3B / 105 RBI / 86 R / 80 BB / 124 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .306 / .397 / 42 HR / 31 2B / 2 3B / 129 RBI / 103 R / 91 BB / 113 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Notes: I’m not thrilled with Cleveland calling up LaPorta at this time. It puts him in limbo. All signs point to LaPorta simply getting sent back down as soon as Travis Hafner comes off the DL. I was hoping for a permanent call up later this year. On the bright side, LaPorta crushed his first big league dinger. There will be plenty more to come. 4. David Price/ SP / Tampa Bay / Triple-A / 8/26/85 / ETA: 2009 Average Year Projection: 198 IP / 3.67 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 182 SO / 189 H / 69 BB Prime Year Projection: 212 IP / 2.85 ERA / 1.19 WHIP / 18 W / 8 L / 223 SO / 194 H / 58 BB Notes: Price’s latest performance stood out, but for all the wrong reasons. The control issues are real, and his poor start to the season could send him on a slippery slope. His mechanics look consistent. Are his Triple-A problems all in his head? I will be monitoring his progress carefully. 5. Madison Bumgarner / SP / San Francisco / A+ / 8/1/89 / ETA: 2011 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. 6. Mat Gamel / 3B/OF / Milwaukee / Triple-A / 7/26/85 / ETA: 2009 Average Year Projection: .291 / .354 / 26 HR / 43 2B / 6 3B / 101 RBI / 95 R / 62 BB / 113 SO / 6 SB / 3 CS Prime Year Projection: .313 / .392 / 31 HR / 47 2B / 7 3B / 114 RBI / 101 R / 69 BB / 102 SO / 9 SB / 4 CS 7. Travis Snider / OF / Toronto / MLB / 2/2/88 Average Year Projection: .270 / .354 / 25 HR / 34 2B / 2 3B / 95 RBI / 83 R / 74 BB / 138 SO / 4 SB / 3 CS Prime Year Projection: .289 / .375 / 32 HR / 37 2B / 3 3B / 116 RBI / 96 R / 82 BB / 126 SO / 5 SB / 3 CS 8. Chris Tillman / SP / Baltimore / Triple-A / 4/15/88 / ETA: 2010 Average Year Projection: 195 IP / 3.76 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 175 SO / 192 H / 67 BB Prime Year Projection: 208 IP / 3.03 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 16 W / 8 L / 204 SO / 197 H / 59 BB 9. Jesus Montero / C/1B / NY Yankees / A+ / 11/28/89 / ETA: 2012 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. 10. Mike Moustakas / 3B / Kansas City / A+ / 9/11/88 / ETA: 2011 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. 11. Justin Smoak / 1B / Texas / Double-A / 12/5/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +3 Average Year Projection: .293 / .377 / 22 HR / 36 2B / 1 3B / 92 RBI / 82 R / 79 BB / 114 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .309 / .402 / 27 HR / 38 2B / 2 3B / 104 RBI / 95 R / 88 BB / 105 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Notes: My love for Chris Davis during his 2007 season paid off, as his true breakout into elite territory came in 2008. Another blue chip hitter is climbing up the boards, but Justin Smoak certainly didn’t come out of nowhere. How this guy fell as far as he did in the 2008 draft is anyone’s guess. He reminds me a lot of Mark Teixeira, but I’m still waiting on bigger signs of Smoak’s power potential. If his power upticks (he has the potential) his stock will skyrocket even further. The thing that really blows me away with Smoak is his patience and approach at the plate. He will be a good all-around major league hitter. 12. Jarrod Parker / SP / Arizona / Double-A / 11/24/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: He was too good for High-A ball, so his promotion to Double-A Mobile was warranted. Everyone will now be able to get a real sense for how good this kid really is, and he could be great. His first Double-A outing was subpar. Will he show up next time out? I don’t know, but I can’t wait. The kid has ace potential. 13. Buster Posey / C / San Francisco / A+ / 3/27/87 / ETA: 2011 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: I want to see Posey promoted. Right now. I believe he will have no problem adjusting, but I have to know for sure. He projects to be an plus hitter, especially when comparing him to other catchers. I like to compare him to current Giants catcher Bengie Molina. Ultimately it may be Molina who is responsible for keeping Posey in the minor leagues. 14. Jason Heyward / OF / Atlanta / A+ / 8/9/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +2 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: Five tool prospect with the stats to back it up. If he brings his current production up to the Double-A level he will shoot up my list, but, like everyone below the Double-A level, I have to temper my expectations. Very good prospect, though. He has that “perennial all-star” feel about him. 15. Lars Anderson / 1B / Boston / Double-A / 9/25/87 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -3 Average Year Projection: .274 / .358 / 22 HR / 37 2B / 1 3B / 91 RBI / 78 R / 74 BB / 135 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS Prime Year Projection: .287 / .380 / 28 HR / 39 2B / 2 3B / 103 RBI / 87 R / 80 BB / 121 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Notes: I can’t go overboard with Anderson yet because his power just has not shown up yet. He is very projectable, which is why I like him. He has a big frame and a good swing. Right now, I liken him to Adam LaRoche at the dish. In other words, an above average player. He has the ability to be a great player, though, and he certainly has the ability to be better than LaRoche. I’m expecting a June call up in 2010, if everything goes well. 16. Dexter Fowler / OF / Colorado / MLB / 3/22/86 / Movement: -1 2009 Thoughts: He is a solid No. 3 outfielder, providing good stolen base and runs production. Average Year Projection: .284 / .358 / 11 HR / 39 2B / 7 3B / 63 RBI / 99 R / 70 BB / 106 SO / 27 SB / 9 CS Prime Year Projection: .292 / .376 / 14 HR / 41 2B / 9 3B / 74 RBI / 109 R / 80 BB / 99 SO / 34 SB / 9 CS Notes: He is a good lead-off prospect for a Colorado team that needs one. An exciting player. I am not a believer in his home run power, but the thin air of Coors Field will aid him. If you can live without the home run and RBI production, Fowler looks like a strong No. 2 outfielder. 17. Angel Villalona / 1B / San Francisco / A+ / 8/13/90 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +4 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: The Frank Thomas of the California League. At just 18 years old Villalona has everything you look for in a power hitting prospect. He sports a sweet, level, powerful swing. I’m not sure that he’s in love with the game of baseball, though. I would love to see more commitment out of him. It’s the only thing holding him back. 18. Rick Porcello / SP / Detroit / MLB / 12/27/88 / Movement: -1 Average Year Projection: 191 IP / 3.83 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 13 W / 10 L / 161 SO / 180 H / 66 BB Prime Year Projection: 204 IP / 3.22 ERA / 1.19 WHIP / 16 W / 8 L / 202 SO / 188 H / 55 BB Notes: I like his groundball rate, and having a good defense behind him will do wonders. There are concerns about his strikeout ability and makeup. I’m a cautious believer, as the concerns are legit and have knocked him down a bit on my list. As he grows I expect his rangy repertoire of pitches to garner him strong strikeout numbers. But if he falls flat on his face in his first couple of years in the big leagues, I don't know if he will recover. Detroit rushed him, and I’m concerned. Be a cautious investor when it comes to Porcello. 19. Jordan Zimmermann / SP / Washington / MLB / 5/23/86 Average Year Projection: 199 IP / 3.77 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 175 SO / 189 H / 70 BB Prime Year Projection: 210 IP / 3.16 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 15 W / 10 L / 217 SO / 194 H / 66 BB Notes: I love Zimmerman’s poise and makeup. His fastball has really come on since he was drafted in 2007, as he now sits comfortably in the mid-90s. He could surprise everyone, including me, and blow past my projected numbers. He has a bulldog mentality that any team would love at the top of their rotation. Ultimately, playing for Washington could hurt his numbers; although it is hard predict how good the team will be in five years. His first two major league starts came against Atlanta and the New York Mets, and he looked very impressive in both outings. 20. Carlos Triunfel / SS / Seattle / Double-A / 2/27/90 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2 Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: I caught some criticism for aggressively putting an “injured shortstop that won’t stay at shortstop” very high up on my list. But that’s how much I love this kid. I wanted to give him his due. I’m sure he will slide down this list as the year progresses, but I am very high on this kid’s ability to be an elite fantasy shortstop in the major leagues. That’s right, I do think he will stay at shortstop. He won’t be anything more than average defensively at the position, but that’s of little concern to us. All we care about is his bat and his speed, and he lots of both. 21. Michael Stanton / OF / Florida / A+ / 11/8/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1 22. Logan Morrison / 1B / Florida / Double-A / 8/25/87 / ETA: 2010 23. Gordon Beckham / SS / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 9/16/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +2 24. Neftali Feliz / SP/RP / Texas / Triple-A / 5/2/88 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1 25. Kyle Blanks / 1B / San Diego / Triple-A / 9/11/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1 26. Colby Rasmus / OF / St. Louis / MLB / 8/11/86 27. Derek Holland / SP / Texas / MLB / 10/9/86 28. Pedro Alvarez / 3B / Pittsburgh / A+ / 2/6/87 / ETA: 2010 29. Brett Anderson / SP / Oakland / MLB / 2/1/88 30. Hector Rondon / SP / Cleveland / Double-A / 2/26/88 / ETA: 2011 31. Brett Lawrie / 2B/3B/OF / Milwaukee / A / 1/18/90 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +7 32. Carlos Santana / C / Cleveland / Double-A / 4/8/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +7 33. Andrew Lambo / OF / LA Dodgers / Double-A / 8/11/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1 34. Jeremy Hellickson / SP / Tampa Bay / Double-A / 4/8/87 / ETA: 2011 35. Jhoulys Chacin / SP / Colorado / Double-A / 1/7/88 / ETA: 2011 36. Cameron Maybin / OF / Florida / MLB / 4/4/87 / Movement: -5 37. Trevor Cahill / SP / Oakland / MLB / 3/1/88 / Movement: -4 38. Tim Alderson / SP / San Francisco / A+ / 11/3/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1 39. Brian Matusz / SP / Baltimore / A+ / 2/11/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2 40. Michael Bowden / SP / Boston / Triple-A / 9/9/86 / ETA: 2010 41. Austin Jackson / OF / NY Yankees / Triple-A / 2/1/87 / ETA: 2010 42. Brett Wallace / 3B / St. Louis / Double-A / 8/26/86 / ETA: 2010 43. Tyler Flowers / C / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 1/24/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +5 44. Elvis Andrus / SS / Texas / MLB / 8/26/88 / Movement: -1 45. Aaron Hicks / OF / Minnesota / EST / 10/2/89 / ETA: 2012 46. Daryl Jones / OF / St. Louis / Double-A / 6/25/87 / ETA: 2011 47. Jake Arrieta / SP / Baltimore / Double-A / 3/6/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -3 48. Aaron Cunningham / OF / Oakland / Triple-A / 4/24/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1 49. Michael Saunders / OF / Seattle / Triple-A / 11/19/86 / ETA: 2010 50. Fernando Martinez / OF / NY Mets / Triple-A / 10/10/88 / ETA: 2010 51. Ethan Martin / SP / LA Dodgers / A / 6/6/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +4 52. Desmond Jennings / OF / Tampa Bay / Double-A / 10/30/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +6 53. Michael Inoa / SP / Oakland / EST / 9/24/91 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -2 54. Christian Friedrich / SP / Colorado / A / 7/8/87 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +6 55. Eric Hosmer / 1B / Kansas City / A / 10/24/89 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -3 56. Jordan Schafer / OF / Atlanta / MLB / 9/4/86 / Movement: -3 57. Martin Perez / SP / Texas / A / 4/4/91 / ETA: 2013 / Movement: -1 58. Gerardo Parra / OF / Arizona / Double-A / 5/6/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +4 59. Brandon Erbe / SP / Baltimore / Double-A / 12/25/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -5 60. Andrew McCutchen / OF / Pittsburgh / Triple-A / 10/10/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -3 61. Freddie Freeman / 1B / Atlanta / A+ / 9/12/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2 62. Jordan Walden / SP / LA Angels / Double-A / 11/16/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +2 63. Jeremy Jeffress / SP / Milwaukee / Double-A / 9/21/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2 64. Wilfredo Boscan / SP / Texas / A / 10/26/89 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -1 65. Alcides Escobar / SS / Milwaukee / Triple-A / 12/16/86 / ETA: 2010 66. Jairo Heredia / SP / NY Yankees / EST / 10/8/89 / ETA: 2011 67. Caleb Gindl / OF / Milwaukee / A+ / 8/31/88 / ETA: 2011 68. Carlos Carrasco / SP / Philadelphia / Triple-A / 3/21/87 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +4 69. Wade Davis / SP / Tampa Bay / Triple-A / 9/7/85 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1 70. Daniel Bard / RP / Boston / Triple-A / 6/25/85 / ETA: 2010 71. Casey Kelly / SP / Boston / A / 10/4/89 / ETA: 2013 / Movement: +3 72. Lance Lynn / SP / St. Louis / Double-A / 5/12/87 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +11 73. Wilmer Flores / SS / NY Mets / A / 8/6/91 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -4 74. Max Ramirez / C / Texas / Triple-A / 10/11/84 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -3 75. Nolan Reimold / OF / Baltimore / Triple-A / 10/12/83 / ETA: 2009 76. Jose Tabata / OF / Pittsburgh / Double-A / 8/12/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2 77. Ben Revere / OF / Minnesota / A+ / 5/3/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1 78. Jason Knapp / SP / Philadelphia / A / 8/31/90 / ETA: 2013 / Movement: -1 79. Zeke Spruill / SP / Atlanta / A / 9/11/89 / ETA: 2013 / Movement: -1 80. Trevor Reckling / SP / LA Angels / Double-A / 5/22/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +7 81. Yonder Alonso / 1B / Cincinnati / A+ / 4/8/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +7 82. Michael Pineda / SP / Seattle / A+ / 1/18/89 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -3 83. Matt Dominguez / 3B / Florida / A+ / 8/28/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -3 84. James McDonald / SP / LA Dodgers / MLB / 10/19/84 / Movement: -3 85. Kris Medlen / SP/RP / Atlanta / Triple-A / 10/7/85 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +7 86. Adrian Cardenas / 2B/SS / Oakland / Triple-A / 10/10/87 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -4 87. Bud Norris / SP / Houston / Triple-A / 3/2/85 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -3 88. Brandon Crawford / SS / San Francisco / A+ / 1/21/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +3 89. Dominic Brown / OF / Philadelphia / A+ / 9/3/87 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +5 90. Tim Beckham / SS / Tampa Bay / A / 1/27/90 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +10 91. David Hernandez / SP / Baltimore / Triple-A / 5/13/85 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1 92. Josh Vitters / 3B / Chicago Cubs / A / 8/27/89 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +4 93. Dayan Viciedo / 3B/OF / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 3/10/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -8 94. Aaron Poreda / SP / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 10/1/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -5 95. Jason Castro / C / Houston / A+ / 6/18/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -9 96. Phillippe Aumont / RP / Seattle / A+ / 1/7/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -3 97. Gio Gonzalez / SP / Oakland / Triple-A / 9/19/85 / ETA: 2009 / Movement: -2 98. Josh Lindblom / SP / LA Dodgers / Double-A / 6/15/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +1 99. Sean West / SP / Florida / Double-A / 6/15/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2 100. Vance Worley / SP / Philadelphia / Double-A / 9/25/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: New Other players that I'm watching closely: J.P. Arencibia / C / Toronto / Triple-A / 1/5/86 / ETA: 2011 Gorkys Hernandez Kyle Skipworth Dellin Betances Todd Frazier Jonathon Niese Lou Marson Trevor Harden Cody Johnson Daniel Duffy John Jaso D.J. Mitchell Reese Havens Wilson Ramos Ross Seaton Mike Carp Dexter Carter Brad Holt Mauricio Robles Matt Maloney Brandon Snyder Brett Cecil Yohermyn Chavez Chris Carter Kevin Mulvey Jason Donald David Huff Michael Taylor Reid Brignac Brett Lorin Josh Reddick Kelvin De La Cruz Peter Bourjos Chris Coghlan Comments
Evan said...
Cecil needs to move up!!! Posted 05/12 at 12:29 AM |
Hey - no Luke Hochevar?
Also, since you seem to really get into the future stars and such, any interest in putting together lists for the Top 25 Fantasy Players five and ten years down the line?