Monday, July 30, 2007
Trade aftermath: Dotel to BravesPosted by Derek Carty at 4:56pm
Another trade done. Rumored throughout the day, the Braves have officially completed their trade with Kansas City. They are also preparing to announce their trade for Mark Teixeira. In addition, rumors are going around now that they have inquired about Bronson Arroyo. As a Mets fan, I'm getting a little nervous.
Braves get: RP Octavio Dotel
Royals get: SP Kyle Davies
Quick outlook: Dotel loses value. Davies loses value.
Indirectly affected: Joakim Soria gains value. Zack Greinke gains value. Rafael Soriano loses a little value. Buddy Carlyle gains a little value. Jo-Jo Reyes gains a little value. Jorge de la Rosa loses a little value. Odalis Perez loses a little value. Leo Nunez loses value. John Thomson loses a little value.
Dotel adds yet another arm to the Braves bullpen, an arm that is a better than Bob Wickman's. Soriano loses some value with the trade; if Wickman loses the closer's job, it will no longer be automatically assumed that Soriano will step in.
Of course, Dotel loses value, moving from a job closing to a bullpen where he will have to jump ahead of two guys to close. His peripherals might get a bit better in the National League, but that is little compensation for the drop in saves. Dotel can be dropped in mixed leagues and picked up in deep 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Joakim Soria will likely become the Royals closer, giving him plenty of value for the rest of the year. Zack Greinke will be breathing down his neck, though, so his job won't be completely secure. The Royals might envision Greinke as a starter next year, so leaving Soria as the closer would make more sense in the long-term. Soria needs to be owned in all leagues.
Davies is a fly ball pitcher with poor control and a league average strikeout rate for his career. He has a 4.61 LIPS ERA this year. I suppose he could eventually turn into a serviceable pitcher, given that he is still just 23. For this year, though, he loses value. A below average pitcher moving to the American League? I'm staying away. He should only be owned in deep 14-team AL-only leagues.
For now, it looks like Buddy Carlyle and Jo-Jo Reyes fall into the top five starters for the Braves. Neither are fantastic, but they do have a little more security. The Braves are looking into acquiring Bronson Arroyo, though, so these guys might be losing some value in a matter of hours. I wouldn't rush to pick either up. Wait and see what else the Braves do.
As far as the Kansas City rotation, anything goes, really. Gil Meche has a spot locked up, and—despite poor peripherals—Brian Bannister probably does too. And of course Kyle Davies does. No one else has been good, peripherally or on the surface, so they are all at risk of losing starts. Odalis Perez has the biggest name of the bunch, but he has the worst numbers. Leo Nunez was likely to be moved from the rotation once John Thomson returns, but now both could be out of a starting gig. The possibility also exists that Greinke will be moved to the rotation, but losing him and Dotel from the bullpen would really weaken it. They might just wait for next year, if they make the switch at all.
If I hand to wager, I'd say the Kansas City rotation will shake out like this: 1) Meche, 2) Bannister, 3) Davies, 4) de la Rosa, 5) Thomson. Regardless of who actually gets spots, none of these guys should be owned except in deep AL-only leagues, even with a guaranteed spot.
Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.