Saturday, March 29, 2008

Trade strategy: Getting to know your opponent

If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles.
-- Sun Tzu

• What do I want to give? What do I want to receive?
  
  The most basic tenet of trading. Every owner thinks about this. If he doesn't, well, fantasy baseball probably isn't for him.

• What does my opponent want to give? What does my opponent want to receive?
  
• What methods does my opponent use to value players?
  
  A little bit less common than the "me" layer, but still something a reasonable number of owners think about. That doesn't make it any less important, though. If you had tried offering an owner in the... let's say, Dusty Baker mold... a sabermetric darling like Jamie Shields for Barry Zito and his freshly signed contract last April, he might have laughed in your face.
  
  
• Does he play favorites, maybe for players on his home town team?
  
• Are there players he refuses to roster?
  
  If you can identify which types of players he overvalues, you might be able to get a better deal than you would otherwise. If you know that he refuses to take any, say, Yankees, then you'll know what not to offer him.
  
  
• What Websites does he frequent and what books has he read?
  
  Might be difficult to decipher, but if you can, this is very valuable information. Also, this isn't restricted to books like the Hardball Times Baseball Annual; knowing if he reads books like the Art of War or the Book of Five Rings or even Harrington on Hold 'Em is very important too.
  
  
• Does he get attached to players?
  
• Does he tend to overrate his own players and underrate everyone else's?
  
  If the answer is yes, this is the type of owner you may want to stay away from if you can't swing a deal quickly. He'll take up a lot of your time and the deal probably won't get done.
  
  
• Does he look for very specific players or is he more open?
  
  If he asks for Garrett Atkins, is Atkins the only player he will discuss, or will he entertain the idea of acquiring Chipper Jones instead?
  
  
• Is he an active trader?
  
• How many trades does he generally make per year (if you've played in a league with him before)
  
• Does he make trades early in the year or wait until later?
  
  Active traders are much better partners than inactive traders. Knowing when your opponent makes trades can be critical as well. If he likes to make them early, you need to do this recon work much more quickly so that you can get in on the action. If he waits before making trades, use that time to gain intelligence on him and to butter him up for a later trade.
  
  
• What time of year is it, and where is his team in the standings—overall and in each category?
  
  This can give you insights into the urgency (or lack thereof) he could be feeling to make a deal and the types of players he might be looking for.
  
  
• Does he give up on players early, like in April or May?
  
• Does he give up on players who are on a cold streak?
  
• Does he ever tend to sell low?
  
  If an owner displays any of these tendencies, evaluate the under-performing players on his team, and if the skills and indicators are favorable, make a play for him.
  
  
• Does he prefer quick conversations and quickly completed trades or drawn out, thought-driven negotiations?
  

• Does he view me as a strong or weak player? Somewhere in between?
  
  The stronger he views you as, the more reluctant he will be to trade with you. Nobody wants to get hustled.
  
  
• How long has he played fantasy baseball? How long has he followed "regular" baseball? How big a baseball fan is he?
  
  Suppose this is his first year playing fantasy baseball, but he has followed "regular" baseball quite fervently for years. He probably knows his players pretty well, but he might not know the intricacies of strategy, negotiation and deception. If some of the other factors point this way, maybe simply being nice and helpful can swing a deal. Also, your own deceptive measures are less likely to be discovered. This could also be useful in that players who are good at baseball aren't necessarily great fantasy players. Use that to your advantage in trade talks.
  
  
• Have you dealt with this owner before? How have previous dealings went?
  
• Do you know anything about previous dealings between him and other owners?
  
• Has this owner been known to use dirty tactics or treachery in any way?
  
  
• Does this owner have a background in anything useful for fantasy baseball purposes? Business, psychology, military strategy, poker, etc.?
  
  If he does, pay attention to ways in which he might be using these skills.
  
  
• What is this owner's personality like?
  
• Is he aggressive? Laid back?
  
• Does he have a big ego?
  
• Is he insecure in life? Is he insecure in his ability to run a fantasy team?
  
• Is he extremely skeptical and distrustful of everything you say, possibly seated in some type of insecurity?
  
  Is the player always thinking you're out to get him or always thinking that you know something that he doesn't? Is he so much this way that he mistrusts even simple statistics you place before him, or is he open to logical suggestion? If an owner is the former—which could likely be discovered early if he shows signs of insecurity and lack of any semblance of an ego —e is likely a very weak player, but probably one you shouldn't waste too much time on. He'll always think you're getting the better of him and will refuse to trade for that reason.
  
  
• How emotional is he?
  
  Emotions can be very important, as talked about in this article.
  
  
• How secretive is he? Can he be prodded into revealing information?
  
• Is he willing to give more information, either about his strategy, player evaluation techniques, or specific players, when he is more emotional?
  
• What is the best way to make him emotional?
  
  If he is willing to give information, try to get it out of him. Having intelligence on how to get him emotional can be very important in this regard. Just remember to do it cautiously and sparingly. If he catches on to what you're doing, this tactic will be much more difficult to perform on him in the future.
  
  
• Is he very impulsive or more likely to be rational?
  
• Is he more likely to be impulsive when his emotions flare up?
  
  If so, build up to the point where a trade is nearly complete, and then see if you can't get those emotions into action.
  
  
• What is his current mindset, the day you are talking to him? Is he feeling deflated about his team?
  
  If he's down on his team, now could be the time to grab a couple of his players who are getting unlucky.
  
  
• How receptive is he to the hard sell?
  
• How hard can you press him before he gets really angry and retreats from negotiations?
  
  If you press too hard, it could hurt not only the current negotiations, but he could refuse to negotiate with you in the future. At the very least, he could go into future negotiations more close-minded.
  
  
• What is he most receptive to? Logic? Intimidation? Simple kindness? Acts of weakness on your part? Maybe some massaging of his ego?
  
  Find out what it is and discretely take that approach. Be aware of possible changes in what he is receptive to and adjust accordingly.
  
  
• How opinionated is he? Is he constantly talking about what he thinks about players? Does he refuse to ever talk about players?
  
  Be aware of noticeable changes in this area. If an owner who is generally tight-lipped about players he likes all of a sudden starts talking about how great one of his players is, consider that he might be trying to dump him, even if his reasons seem logical.
  
  
• How aggressive is he?
  
• Does he go for the home run every time, or is he more content to compromise?
  
  Owners who look to make only "fair trades" are easier to deal with than those who will make a deal only if it is a blatant rip-off. Dealing with a "fair trade" owner also makes it more likely you will end up ripping him off if there is some flaw in his evaluation of players.
  

• Is he analyzing me in this way?
  
• Does he have reason to believe I'm analyzing him in this way?
  
• Is he a creative, strategic, independent thinker?
  
  If you answer yes to these questions, you are dealing with an extremely dangerous opponent. If he is thinking about you in this way, and he concludes that you are thinking about him in this way, things can get very tricky. Intricate mind games can come into play. If you are dealing with this type of opponent, you always want to try to think several steps ahead of him. Beware, though, because he is likely doing exactly the same thing.
  
  
• Could he be feeding me false information?
  
  Counter-intelligence is a complex topic, but when used correctly can be a deadly weapon. It is a topic that we will need to talk about in more depth in the future, but identifying owners who are using it (and how well they are using it) can be crucial. These owners need to be approached with the utmost caution, and you need to be very careful when deciphering what information is real and what is a facade.

Knowing yourself

Achieving success

Musashi and his enemies

Adapting to your enemy

Concluding thoughts