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Monday, June 15, 2009Using FIP to evaluate pitchers? I wouldn’tPosted by Derek Carty at 2:01am
What is FIP?FIP is a statistic that attempts to estimate what a pitcher's ERA would be based on his peripheral statistics—or rather, the peripheral statistics originally suggested by Voros McCracken when he introduced DIPS Theory. This includes strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. While we know that strikeouts and walks are extremely important, eight years after Voros's work was originally published, we can definitively say that home runs aren't entirely under a pitcher's control. Here's how things work: a pitcher can influence the rate of fly balls he gives up. By this logic, the more fly balls allowed, the more total balls will clear the fences for home runs (all else being equal). However, while a starting pitcher can control the rate of fly balls allowed, he cannot do a very good job of controlling the rate at which those fly balls become home runs (with very few exceptions). To put it more simply, starting pitchers don't have any underlying ability to prevent home runs—the best they can do is prevent fly balls. If those fly balls are clearing the fence at too high a rate (or too low), we say that the pitcher has been unlucky (or lucky). And therein lies the problem with FIP. Pitchers undervalued by FIPHere is a list of pitchers that have been undervalued by FIP so far in 2009. If you were to look at the FIP of these pitchers, you would believe that they have pitched worse than they actually have. To explain the table below, we're seeing the pitcher's LIPS ERA (which also estimates ERA but normalizes HR/FB, in addition to some other things), his FIP, and the difference between the two. I've also included each pitcher's HR/FB rate so you can see just how much this stat influences FIP (for the worse). League average is around 11 percent, and you'll notice that just about every player on this list is well above that number. +-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+ | LAST | FIRST | G | GS | IP | ERA | LIPS ERA | FIP | LIPS-FIP | HR/FB | +-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+ | Geer | Joshua B | 11 | 9 | 58.7 | 6.14 | 4.48 | 5.97 | -1.49 | 18% | | Guthrie | Jeremy | 13 | 13 | 73.3 | 5.52 | 4.39 | 5.78 | -1.39 | 17% | | Colon | Bartolo | 11 | 11 | 55.3 | 4.23 | 4.21 | 5.60 | -1.39 | 19% | | Harden | Rich | 9 | 9 | 49.7 | 4.53 | 3.18 | 4.47 | -1.29 | 23% | | Bush | David T | 13 | 12 | 74.7 | 4.58 | 4.34 | 5.52 | -1.18 | 17% | | Baker | Scott S | 11 | 11 | 67.7 | 5.59 | 3.76 | 4.93 | -1.17 | 17% | | Young | Chris | 13 | 13 | 73.7 | 4.76 | 4.16 | 5.13 | -0.97 | 11% | | Johnson | Randy | 13 | 13 | 70.0 | 4.89 | 3.61 | 4.55 | -0.94 | 22% | | Galarraga | Armando | 13 | 13 | 69.7 | 5.56 | 5.08 | 6.02 | -0.94 | 17% | | Blanton | Joe M | 12 | 12 | 71.3 | 5.17 | 3.97 | 4.86 | -0.89 | 19% | | Suppan | Jeff | 13 | 13 | 70.3 | 4.48 | 4.88 | 5.72 | -0.84 | 16% | | Moyer | Jamie | 12 | 12 | 66.3 | 6.11 | 4.97 | 5.81 | -0.84 | 16% | | Parra | Manny | 13 | 13 | 64.7 | 7.52 | 4.39 | 5.12 | -0.73 | 15% | | Davies | Kyle K | 13 | 13 | 77.0 | 5.14 | 4.67 | 5.34 | -0.67 | 14% | | Eaton | Adam | 8 | 8 | 41.0 | 8.56 | 5.29 | 5.96 | -0.67 | 16% | | Looper | Braden | 12 | 12 | 68.0 | 4.50 | 4.58 | 5.23 | -0.65 | 18% | | Oswalt | Roy | 14 | 14 | 82.3 | 4.37 | 3.96 | 4.56 | -0.60 | 15% | | Slowey | Kevin | 13 | 13 | 78.7 | 4.23 | 3.57 | 4.09 | -0.52 | 11% | | Sonnanstine | Andy | 13 | 13 | 70.3 | 6.65 | 4.97 | 5.48 | -0.51 | 16% | | Carmona | Fausto C | 12 | 12 | 60.7 | 7.42 | 5.58 | 6.08 | -0.50 | 18% | +-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+ While true for nearly all players to some extent, if you see analysis done on these players using FIP, take note that the conclusions should probably be much more positive. Pitchers overvalued by FIPHere is a list of pitchers that have been overvalued by FIP so far in 2009. If you were to look at the FIP of these pitchers, you would believe that they have pitched better than they actually have. +-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+ | LAST | FIRST | G | GS | IP | ERA | LIPS ERA | FIP | LIPS-FIP | HR/FB | +-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+ | Lowe | Derek | 13 | 13 | 83.7 | 3.44 | 4.75 | 3.20 | 1.55 | 3% | | Billingsley | Chad R | 13 | 13 | 85.7 | 2.73 | 4.07 | 2.73 | 1.34 | 3% | | Stults | Eric W | 9 | 9 | 45.0 | 4.80 | 5.47 | 4.14 | 1.33 | 3% | | Jurrjens | Jair | 13 | 13 | 79.0 | 2.85 | 4.83 | 3.53 | 1.30 | 5% | | Garland | Jon | 13 | 13 | 76.0 | 5.45 | 6.42 | 5.13 | 1.29 | 9% | | Blackburn | Nick N | 13 | 13 | 84.3 | 3.31 | 5.40 | 4.22 | 1.18 | 7% | | Greinke | Zack Z | 13 | 13 | 94.3 | 1.72 | 3.01 | 1.92 | 1.09 | 2% | | Pelfrey | Mike A | 11 | 11 | 65.3 | 4.68 | 5.48 | 4.40 | 1.08 | 8% | | Lincecum | Tim | 13 | 13 | 88.0 | 2.66 | 3.24 | 2.22 | 1.02 | 4% | | Rodriguez | Wandy | 13 | 13 | 79.7 | 2.82 | 4.16 | 3.16 | 1.00 | 7% | | Hammel | Jason A | 12 | 9 | 54.0 | 4.33 | 4.94 | 3.99 | 0.95 | 11% | | Carpenter | Chris | 7 | 7 | 44.0 | 1.23 | 3.34 | 2.39 | 0.95 | 3% | | Jimenez | Ubaldo | 13 | 13 | 82.7 | 3.92 | 4.21 | 3.27 | 0.94 | 6% | | Meche | Gil | 13 | 13 | 75.3 | 3.70 | 4.00 | 3.08 | 0.92 | 3% | | Happ | J.A. | 16 | 4 | 45.3 | 2.98 | 5.34 | 4.42 | 0.92 | 9% | | Pineiro | Joel | 12 | 12 | 76.7 | 3.99 | 4.01 | 3.09 | 0.92 | 4% | | Verlander | Justin B | 13 | 13 | 86.3 | 3.02 | 3.26 | 2.36 | 0.90 | 6% | | Lee | Cliff | 13 | 13 | 88.0 | 3.17 | 4.03 | 3.15 | 0.88 | 6% | | Miller | Andrew M | 10 | 8 | 46.0 | 4.30 | 4.45 | 3.62 | 0.83 | 5% | | Johnson | Josh | 13 | 13 | 89.0 | 2.73 | 3.55 | 2.72 | 0.83 | 6% | | Washburn | Jarrod | 12 | 12 | 76.3 | 3.30 | 4.53 | 3.71 | 0.82 | 7% | | Padilla | Vicente | 11 | 11 | 65.3 | 4.82 | 5.70 | 4.89 | 0.81 | 8% | | Wakefield | Tim | 12 | 12 | 76.0 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 4.75 | 0.75 | 6% | +-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+ While true for nearly all players to some extent, if you see analysis done on these players using FIP, take note that the conclusions should probably be much more negative. Evaluating on your ownIf you're looking for an alternative to FIP for evaluating players on your own, you have a few options. LIPS ERA is my favorite, and it's now available in Heater Magazine. You could also simply go with xFIP, which appears on every THT player page and is sortable on the leaders pages. Other free options include stats like tRA and QERA. Concluding thoughtsHopefully this cleared some things up for some of you, as I know I've gotten a few questions about FIP this season. For those of you who were already aware of its shortcomings, well, hopefully you at least enjoyed chewing on the leaderboards presented. As always, if you have any questions, feel free to e-mail me or comment. Derek Carty is a 22-year old fantasy baseball analyst residing in New Jersey. In addition to writing for THTF, his work has appeared at Rotoworld (NBC), Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and Heater Magazine. In his two years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 four top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail. Comments
Mike Ketchen said...
Derek, coming from a guy who has been very successful playing fantasy, I use FIP a lot and I have enjoyed a lot of success with it. Your post here slighting it just seems lacking to me. I am a fan of your work and usually come away learning something new each time you write. However something just seems off here. Do you use LIPS and have seen its value from year to year? For example I was big on Vazquez and Lowe this season and both have paid off big for me. Did Lips nail any guys coming into this season? Thanks in advance for any response. Posted 06/15 at 10:35 AM
The Real Neal said...
When evaluating a pitcher’s ‘true’ talent level this may be useful to know. But in a given season, which is the range we’re talking about for most fantasy purposes, the HR/FB ratio is going to be influenced by the park the pitcher is playing in, opposing hitters etc. It doesn’t make much sense to dismiss it as a vagary of sample size when we know that pitchers in Philadelphia and Colorado are going to tend to yield a higher ratio than those in Petco and Safeco. Posted 06/15 at 10:46 AM
David Gassko said...
The Real Neal, LIPS actually takes into account a pitcher’s home park so that a pitcher’s LIPS can be compared directly to his ERA. In other words, LIPS “knows” that a pitcher in PETCO will have a lower HR/F than a pitcher at Coors and adjusts accordingly. Posted 06/15 at 10:55 AM
The Real Neal said...
Well, color me confused. It’s difficult to understand what LIPS is because you haven’t given a definition of it. The other confusing thing is that when I look at the ERA, the LIPS and the FIP, assuming all three are supposed to represent runs/game - LIPS is the least accurate predictor. Unless your fantasy league uses LIPS… what is the point of the article again? Posted 06/15 at 12:10 PM
David Gassko said...
The Real Neal, Both Derek and I have written about LIPS on THT before, but I have been thinking that it might be time for me to write a primer on THT Fantasy. I’ll work on it, and try to have it posted this week. The point of this article (and of LIPS) is that LIPS is the single-best predictor of ERA based on a season’s worth of stats (or less). Better than FIP or ERA itself or anything else that’s out there. So if your league uses ERA, you want to know a pitcher’s LIPS. Posted 06/15 at 12:25 PM
Drew said...
How do you explain a guy like ubaldo jimenez, who consistently has a low hr/fb? Posted 06/15 at 01:01 PM
John Burnson said...
Jimenez’s HR/FB the last four seasons are .10, .13, .10, and .08. I don’t think that the first three numbers are unduly low, even for Coors. His low HR/FB this year may be related to his rising GB/FB: from 1.5 in 2007 to 2.8 last year to 3.4 this year. Research indicates that a higher GB/FB is correlated with a lower HR/FB. As for Blanton/Billingsley, Billingsley has the better K/9 (9.5 vs. 8.1) but Blanton has the better K/BB (2.8 vs. 2.4). The reason you’re suspicious is because Billingsley has HR/FB of 5% (and an ERA under 3.00) whereas Blanton has HR/FB of 23% (and an ERA over 5.00). Naturally, we tend to believe that each pitcher “deserves” his HR/FB; also, Billingsley has recently been very good, and Blanton has not. Nevertheless, their base skills this year are comparable. (Note that LIPS uses actual stats, not “True Talent”; that would be another extension….) As the inventor of the version of xERA used by BaseballHQ, I appreciate the kind words. I stand by that work. However, if you have the horsepower, LIPS is better. It does a lot of things that I didn’t even attempt to do with xERA. Posted 06/15 at 01:37 PM
Kampfer said...
Just by looking at your table, it seems that FIP is closer to ERA than LIPS. I am also not sold on the idea that pitcher’s stuff or whatever he has does not have any relationship to HR/FB. HR/FB of pitchers are rather steady throughout one’s career. Could it be that if those flyballs are hit better and end up flying longer than they should be? Some had research on sinker and find out that a faster sinker is better than a diving sinker in generating GB. Could it be that pitcher with high velocity and simultaneously generates a lot of GB have lower HR/FB rate? Lowe generates a lot of GB but give up a more HR per FB, while Jimenez give up fewer per FBs. Posted 06/15 at 01:44 PM
John Burnson said...
FIP will always be better backward-looking than LIPS, because FIPS uses the pitcher’s actual HR whereas LIPS (and xFIP) use predicted numbers. Posted 06/15 at 02:32 PM
David Gassko said...
Kampfer, John’s explanation is exactly right. We don’t care about looking backwards, since we already know what a pitcher’s ERA was. What we’re interested in is what his ERA will be. If you compare how good FIP and LIPS are at predicting that, you’ll see that LIPS takes the cake and is therefore more useful. As for pitchers controlling their HR/F, I’ve done a lot of work on this, the definitive piece being in the Hardball Times Annual 2007. Pick it up if you’d like to see all the gory details, but the basic conclusion is that pitchers have a tiny bit of control over HR/F, but not much. After many years, a pitcher’s personal HR/F is meaningful, but in one season (or in this case, after two-and-a-half months) it is mostly noise. Posted 06/15 at 03:21 PM
Eric/OR said...
Honest question - if one replaces “FIP” with “xFIP” above, does this article make sense? Wouldn’t that *precisely* address the complaint with FIP? Posted 06/15 at 04:29 PM
David Gassko said...
xFIP is close to LIPS, but it does not take into account as much as LIPS - things like park effects, batted ball types beyond OF flies, etc. xFIP is good, but LIPS is better. Posted 06/15 at 04:31 PM
Derek Carty said...
Hey guys, Thanks! Posted 06/15 at 04:58 PM
Colin Wyers said...
Has anyone done a rigorous test of xFIP/LIPS/xERA/QERA/tRA and whether it actually reflects true talent better than FIP? I’m not doubting that someone has, I just don’t know where to find it. And Fangraphs now publishes projections updated in-season - shouldn’t that be a better estimate of true talent than any of those? Posted 06/15 at 05:13 PM
Eric/OR said...
David - I suspected as much, thank you. Posted 06/15 at 05:16 PM
John Burnson said...
It’s a question of what question you’re asking. There are two questions, “What should the pitcher’s ERA be, given his exhibited skills?” and “What should the pitcher’s ERA be, given his predicted skills?”, and both are legitimate. That’s why Heater includes both LIPS ERA and True Talent ERA. Posted 06/15 at 05:22 PM
David Gassko said...
Colin, What John said. Also, I have my doubts as to the quality of the updated projections on Fangraphs, though I’m not going to expound on them in this forum. Posted 06/15 at 06:02 PM
Derek Carty said...
Mike Ketchen, The Real Neal, It’s actually sounder still to rig up a full projected HR/FB, which would include past numbers, park adjustments, age adjustments, and a heavy regression to the mean component (in addition to some other, mostly optional, things), but the simple exercise above will suffice for most all SPs for practical purposes. Also, in regard to LIPS, it’s something I’ve written about quite a bit, but I think a primer would be very useful to have for newer readers or those still unfamiliar with LIPS. As David and John have said, it does some very nice things. Posted 06/15 at 08:02 PM
Colin Wyers said...
...can someone put a correlation coefficient on it? An RMSE? Average Absolute Error? I’m willing to buy into these more advanced FIP-like measures, but I just want some evidence that they actually do what they say on the label. Posted 06/15 at 08:03 PM | ||
Good stuff, Derek. I like the philosophy behind LIPS ERA and Baseball HQ’s xERA best.