Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Waiver Wire efficiency: Wins
Posted by Derek Carty at 5:44pmThe two most important factors in predicting wins are offensive support and pitcher skill. To figure out which pitchers are most likely to get you some points in wins, let's look at some decently skilled pitchers with good offenses backing them.
Just remember that wins are very volatile and difficult to predict, so if you stand to gain the same number of points in a category like strikeouts as you would in wins, go with the strikeouts. They are much more predictable.
First, we'll check out the top offenses in each league and how many runs they've scored.
American League
1 NY Yankees 5.97 2 Detroit 5.57 3 Boston 5.13 4 LA Angels 5.13 5 Seattle 5.03 6 Cleveland 5.00 7 Texas 4.96
National League
1 Philadelphia 5.42 2 Colorado 5.08 3 Atlanta 5.00 4 NY Mets 4.84 5 Florida 4.80 6 Cincinnati 4.79 7 Milwaukee 4.77
Wins
This list contains pitchers from a team on the lists above who are owned in less than 25% of leagues. In addition, each pitcher needs to have a LIPS RA (not ERA) better than his team's runs per game.
| LAST | FIRST | TEAM R/G | LIPS RA | DIFF | G | GS | W | L | IP | ERA | LIPS ERA | WHIP | DIPS WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | xGB% | LOB% | BABIP | HR/FB | LD% |
| Lohse* | Kyle | 5.42** | 4.56 | 0.86 | 21 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 131.7 | 4.58 | 4.07 | 1.38 | 1.28 | 6.64 | 2.13 | 3.12 | 44.13 | 71.18 | 0.321 | 12.57 | 18.6 |
| Lohse* | Kyle | 5.42** | 4.88 | 0.54 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20.7 | 4.79 | 4.24 | 1.34 | 1.31 | 5.47 | 2.26 | 2.42 | 36.43 | 72.06 | 0.307 | 8.65 | 21.04 |
| Moyer | Jamie | 5.42** | 4.63 | 0.79 | 25 | 25 | 11 | 9 | 154 | 4.97 | 4.07 | 1.45 | 1.32 | 4.01 | 1.39 | 2.88 | 44.97 | 73.62 | 0.328 | 11.11 | 24.35 |
| Francis | Jeff | 5.08 | 4.53 | 0.55 | 26 | 26 | 13 | 6 | 162.3 | 4.38 | 4.19 | 1.40 | 1.31 | 6.99 | 2.61 | 2.68 | 41.47 | 74.61 | 0.329 | 9.64 | 18.73 |
| Robertson | Nate | 5.57 | 5.04 | 0.53 | 22 | 22 | 7 | 10 | 126.3 | 5.13 | 4.44 | 1.40 | 1.35 | 6.1 | 4.35 | 1.4 | 51.72 | 70.92 | 0.288 | 11.76 | 19.35 |
| Santana | Ervin | 5.13 | 4.74 | 0.39 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 116.3 | 5.96 | 4.30 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 5.79 | 2.86 | 2.02 | 38.52 | 70.98 | 0.305 | 10.1 | 19.46 |
| Livingston | Bobby | 4.79 | 4.43 | 0.36 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 51.7 | 4.70 | 4.36 | 1.69 | 1.44 | 6.75 | 3.94 | 1.71 | 32.69 | 75.4 | 0.36 | 7.69 | 16.98 |
| Bush | Dave | 4.77 | 4.42 | 0.35 | 25 | 23 | 9 | 9 | 143.7 | 5.01 | 4.42 | 1.56 | 1.42 | 7.12 | 3.25 | 2.19 | 35 | 71.43 | 0.328 | 13.45 | 19.74 |
| Washburn | Jarrod | 5.03 | 4.84 | 0.19 | 24 | 24 | 8 | 10 | 149.3 | 4.16 | 4.47 | 1.38 | 1.32 | 4.41 | 1.13 | 3.89 | 38.36 | 74.07 | 0.321 | 7.98 | 21.89 |
| Lawrence | Brian | 4.84 | 4.66 | 0.18 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 5.06 | 4.35 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 5.09 | 2.14 | 2.38 | 57.83 | 73.01 | 0.325 | 7.55 | 16.77 |
| Byrd | Paul | 5.00 | 4.82 | 0.18 | 23 | 23 | 11 | 5 | 143 | 4.41 | 4.48 | 1.63 | 1.50 | 6.92 | 4.2 | 1.65 | 39.43 | 72.37 | 0.342 | 10.5 | 21.38 |
| Wakefield | Tim | 5.13 | 4.95 | 0.18 | 25 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 157.3 | 4.35 | 4.49 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 5.06 | 2.89 | 1.75 | 37.95 | 74.59 | 0.3 | 6.48 | 17.52 |
| Carlyle | Buddy | 5.00 | 4.85 | 0.15 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 85 | 4.66 | 4.54 | 1.33 | 1.29 | 5.82 | 2.33 | 2.5 | 32.71 | 73.35 | 0.306 | 10.57 | 21.71 |
| Weaver | Jeff | 5.03 | 4.95 | 0.08 | 19 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 106.7 | 5.57 | 4.55 | 1.52 | 1.45 | 7.26 | 3.7 | 1.96 | 34.6 | 79.21 | 0.313 | 12.99 | 21.09 |
| Saunders | Joe | 5.13 | 5.08 | 0.05 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 69.3 | 3.25 | 4.61 | 1.47 | 1.38 | 4.98 | 2.11 | 2.36 | 35.54 | 66.12 | 0.331 | 6.86 | 16.45 |
* Kyle Lohse is on the list twice. One line includes his starts as a Red and the other as a Phillie. Since I don't have LIPS numbers combining stints with multiple teams, I simply listed them separately. You should still be able to get a feel for his skill level.
** Please be aware that most of these runs were scored in games played with Chase Utley. Utley will be returning soon, but as we mentioned the other day, may not be himself.
Concluding thoughts
That wraps up this series. I hope this has helped, and hopefully you'll be able to use it to improve your team as we are nearing the end of the season. If you have any questions—as always —feel free to email me!
Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.