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Thursday, July 23, 2009What to Make of Brett Anderson and Other Prospect NotesPosted by Matt Hagen at 1:07amThis week, I have broken down five new additions to the Top 50 and got caught up on my statistic projections. Visit our Top 100 List to see the latest version, complete with all of the latest advanced prospect projections. Brett Anderson / SP / Oakland / MLB / 2/1/88 / ETA: 2009 / High: #27 / Low: #53 / This Week: +26 2009 Thoughts: After a slow start, Anderson is beginning to figure out big league hitters. His raw talent is taking over. He is a strong back of the rotation starter for the rest of the fantasy season, with an even brighter future ahead of him. Average Year Projection: 201 IP / 3.62 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 172 SO / 190 H / 58 BB Prime Year Projection: 215 IP / 3.20 ERA / 1.12 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 209 SO / 191 H / 50 BB Notes: 7/22/09 - I should have known better. I've been sleeping on Anderson all year after his mildly poor start. He is starting to figure out the major leagues, and it shows in his attacking approach and confidence on the mound. If you're in a keeper league and you bought low on Anderson, I praise you. Martin Perez / SP / Texas / Single-A / 4/4/91 / ETA: 2012 / High: #42 / Low: #57 / This Week: +13 2009 Thoughts: Perez represents another great find for Texas' organization. The 18-year-old should remain in the South Atlantic League to close out the season, but stardom awaits if he continues to put in the work. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 7/22/09 - Perez is inducing ground balls, striking out more than a hitter per inning, keeping his walks in check, and essentially dominating a league full of hitters that an 18-year-old shouldn't be facing. Jordan Lyles / SP / Houston / Single-A / 10/19/90 / ETA: 2012 / High: #46 / Low: UR / This Week: +6 2009 Thoughts: Lyles' breakout season is showing the world why Houston made him a sandwich pick in the 2008 draft. He may finish up the season battling High-A hitters if everything stays on track. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 7/22/09 - He's allowed a few more hits than one would like, but, besides Martin Perez, it's hard to find a better pitcher in the Sally League. His strikeouts are through the roof and his walks are at a manageable rate for a kid his age. I'm hoping to see more video of him in order to get a better feel for his pure stuff, but it's impossible to ignore his season. His success has been paramount in bringing respect back to Houston's scouting department and farm system. Lonnie Chisenhall / 3B/SS / Cleveland / Advanced-A / 10/4/88 / ETA: 2011 / High: #47 / Low: UR / This Week: +12 2009 Thoughts: Chisenhall has put his critics in their place with his strong full-season debut in the Carolina League. A Double-A promotion to close out the season could be in the cards. Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 7/22/09 - From a fantasy perspective, the only Chisenhall criticism that I can place on Cleveland is the fact that they moved the young man to third base. I would have loved to see Chisenhall get a legit shot to stay at shortstop. Oh well. Lonnie's bat will play just fine at third base too. Cleveland sports one of the more loaded farm systems in baseball. Freddie Freeman / 1B / Atlanta / Double-A / 9/12/89 / ETA: 2011 / High: #49 / Low: #78 / This Week: +14 2009 Thoughts: Freeman's 2009 hasn't been as in-your-face as his 2008, but he has shown that his debut was no fluke. He calls Double-A Mississippi home, and for good reason Average Year Projection: Too early to tell. Prime Year Projection: Too early to tell. Notes: 7/22/09 - The kid should hit for a good average no matter where he plays, but his power has been hit or miss thus far in his career. It's the only aspect of his game that is holding him back, as he displays good plate discipline and excellent contact skills for a wannabe power hitter. Give us the good stuff, Freeman. Dudes dig the long ball too.
Chad Burke said...
If you only keep 5 players I’m not sure why you’d be keeping a pitching prospect as one of them. I would think you’d have some hitters that you’d be able to keep at a decent price that would be of higher value. Posted 07/23 at 04:00 PM
Josh said...
@Chad Well, that is my point. Maybe I’ve just been sheltered, but how many keepers do most leagues allow? How much of an increase in salary do most leagues do on keepers? To be honest, I was surprised that Matt was mentioning Anderson as a keeper since have been thinking he’s still another year away from putting together a real valuable year. Posted 07/23 at 05:24 PM
Daniel said...
My AL only league has a $5 increase on keeper prices, but it also allows as many keepers as you want. In that environment, I’ll probably be keeping Anderson for $6, if he continues to improve this year. Posted 07/23 at 06:27 PM
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Regarding Brett Anderson. Let’s say you did get him for $1 in a standard 12 team mixed-league keeper league. The league allows 5 keepers, they go up in salary by $5 and your budget is $260. (This is pretty standard I think).
Is Anderson going to be good enough to keep at $6 when you can only keep five guys? Obviously this is hard to answer in a vacuum but consider what an average team would have under these conditions, and would Anderson usually be worth keeping?