Beyond the issues with roster spots, I think there is still a problem with this approach.  By adding replacement level ABs to Utley’s total and then saying that this will raise his value $9, you are saying that he is the only injured/part time player that will be replaced in your league all season.  Unless you play with a bunch of owners that don’t pay attention, this won’t be the case. 

In order to get an accurate increase in value, you would need to add replacement level ABs to all players below a certain number of ABs(especially if you play in a daily transaction league).  Doing this would increase the value of the replacement level player and that would cut into the $9 increase in value for Utley.

Mike,
His level of performance is definitely something to consider, although Chris Neault doesn’t think it would affect his hitting too much (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/chase-utley-out-4-6-months-fantasy-fallout/)

In the second round, I’d be pretty comfortable taking him, even if he doesn’t quite reach his projections.

Jim,
This is something I was going to drop a quick post about later in the week.  As the year progresses and players get injured, replacement level will get a little worse.  In the case of Utley, though, this isn’t much of a consideration.  We know he’s out for the first month, so you’ll be getting first pick off the waiver wire, and you could even go as far as to draft his replacement.

Thanks, Sean.

I have to agree with Mike about the potential loss of steals.  Will Carrol said of Utley in a chat last week…

“I think he should be close to his goal of playing on Opening Day, but until we get to see him play, it’s very hard to guess how it will affect him. I think a bit less running, but I’m more concerned with whether it alters his swing any or gets in his head.”

I agree that there’s potential profit to be made here, but there’s some risk as well.

I remember being wary of Pujols last year due to possible injury, and won’t let the same happen this year with Utley. I don’t track him at #1 of course, but if he falls until the late first round, got to nab him.

As a H2H participant, I think the potential impact of a loss of 100 AB early in the season is much smaller versus standard roto.  In H2H, if a combination of a replacement level 2B + Utley is good enough to carry you to the playoffs (it should be), you will have a healthy Utley (assuming no further injuries) when it matters most… the playoffs. I think beginning-of-season injuries produce great H2H value opportunities.

bpasinko,
I definitely would not draft another 2B in the first 15 rounds, at least not one to replace Utley.  Fill your MI spot if you wish, but the marginal value of, say, 100 Kelly Johnson ABs over 100 Mark Ellis ABs isn’t much more than a couple of dollars.  For any pick inside the first $15 rounds, $2 or $3 is nowhere near the kind of value you should be targeting.  Simply roll with the replacement, or if a good enough player slips into the 20th round or so you could consider taking him.

Dave R,
Excellent point about H2H leagues.  Hadn’t considered that, but as long as you can weather the first few weeks, you will be in great shape.

There’s a couple of problems here.

1. Assuming that Utley’s replacement will earn $9 in 100 Abs is not realistic.  If Utley is healthy enough to play 500ABS, and he’s only earning $5 per 100, you’re just north of replacement guy is going to earn double what he does and about the same as what Wright does?  More likely that guy earns $2-$3 total.

2. Utley coming into 2008 was only projected for 550 ABs by many prognosticators.  So your 600 possible seems like a phantom, a function of your projection maker’s methodology rather than any real thought about his injury status. (FWIW Utley has averaged 566 Abs since becoming a full timer,  in about 150 games per season)

3. This assumes 100 discrete ABs that you could actually sub for. We’ve all owned at one time or another a Milton Bradley who decides he can’t go….20 times a year. These are, as a practical matter lost Abs, little or nothing you can do about them.  Utley now seems more likely early on to get odd games off, rain delays, cold days or rest days. How many of those will get picked up by even an owner who is on top of their daily transactions?

4. Is there a value subtract in other areas in carrying a just better than replacement level second baseman rather than something for other needs? I love carrying a quality middle reliever at the beginning of the season, it gets me a good start on qualitatives, allows me more easily to pin my innings to my maximum, and gives me the flexibility to pick up the unexpected starts or closer or whatever. You might be surprised howw much use you get out of such players when teams aren’t using 5 man yet, not letting their starters go long and so on.

5. Winning a fantasy league is about cashing in opportunities. Squeezing the last dollar out of a position is good, but getting the Carlos Quentin is better. As a matter of practice it seems more prudent to fill your bench guys who might be impact players rather than replacement level 2Bers that might realistically play 50 Abs, optimistically 100.