Wednesday, July 28, 2010
WHIP it goodPosted by Derek Ambrosino at 4:31am
As I’m writing this, Carl Pavano boasts the fifth lowest WHIP among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball and is tied for the fifth highest win total. And, if disturbing facial hair was a category, he’d be neck and neck with John Axford and Clay Zavada for dominance in that category as well. According to Yahoo, he is the 34th ranked player in fantasy baseball, and 10th among pitchers. So, why am I unable to trade him in my 12-team mixed league?
Normally when somebody asks this question, my default answer is that the player’s owner is asking too high a price. I don’t think that is the case here. The only player whose ranking is particularly close to Pavano’s who I’ve asked for is Jose Bautista, and the fact that his season is at least equally, if not more, improbable as Pavano’s mitigates the significance of his ranking as much as I would expect as prospective trade partner do to Pavano’s.
I do think there’s a bit more at play regarding my leaguemates’ denial of Pavano’s value and I think it has to do with economies of scale regarding different stats. Pavano’s two main statistical strengths this season have been his wins and his WHIP, though his 3.26 ERA doesn’t hurt either. I can certainly understand dismissing the importance of his 12 wins, as it is hard to bank on wins. However, it should be mentioned that Pavano pitches a lot of innings for a good quality team, in a pitcher-friendly home park and in a division with no dominant team. This seems like a pretty complete profile of the context that lends itself to amassing wins. Anyway, one of the dynamics I believe to be at play here is that the value of the fifth lowest WHIP over the fifth most innings of any pitcher this season isn’t intuitively grasped by all.
In this league, the lowest team WHIP is owned by my team with a mark of 1.20 – Pavano is certainly a major contributor to that. The team with the worst WHIP clocks in at 1.35. The WHIP differential between teams is necessarily small. In fact, the .015 range between king and peasant is half the size of the batting average gap between top and bottom. I think WHIP is largely dismissed when looking at a player’s value in the context of a trade because a mark of 1.20 doesn’t intuitively look allthe different from a 1.30. But, in reality, lowering your team’s WHIP by four-hundredths can often mean three, four or five points if you’re in the middle of the pack. Now, does that mean adding a guy like Pavano can reduce your WHIP by that magnitude? Well, it depends who Pavano would be replacing on your staff. Let’s take a fairly extreme example.
The team that owns A.J. Burnett tin this league has basically just endured his travails, I would presume because of Burnett’s potential, history as an elite K-pitcher and because it’s just tough to sit any proven commodity with that lineup backing him up. This owner has not pitched Burnett every start, but has so for most of them. So, as a little experiment, I removed Burnett’s line (taken from this owner’s “Team Log” page) and replaced him with Carl Pavano’s line from my log. This swap lowered the other owner’s season WHIP from 1.32 to 1.25, which would have been good for a four-point improvement in the standings, right behind two other teams tied at 1.24. Conveniently enough, this owner is in last place in strikeouts, so losing Burnett there wouldn’t have made a difference. But, to avoid the cheap way our of this aspect of the hypothetical, Burnett has not been fanning batters at a great rate this year, and because of the innings disparity between Pavano and Burnett, such a swap wouldn’t be likely to largely affect the strikeout category either.
When preaching the value of WHIP, it is also important to restate the obvious to remind us what the stat is actually measuring. In its essence, WHIP is about limiting baserunners. Practically, what that means is that having a good WHIP indicates fewer pitches thrown per inning, which allows a pitcher to stay in a game longer, giving him a better chance to factor in the decision. It is no accident that so many of the starters with elite WHIPs have high win totals and rack up high innings totals.
The high innings totals I refer to is a second-tier point in this discussion as well. I’ve often mentioned that a team’s rate stats should ideally be properly in relation to skill set and sample size. When it comes to WHIP, this balance often works itself out because the pitchers who post great rates often get the most innings over which to do so. A workhorse with a high WHIP is like a batter who clocks 650 ABs with a .300-plus batting average.
To be sure, if you’re reading this and saying to yourself, “I’m still not sold on Pavano as a reliable front-line fantasy pitcher,” I’m not going to tell you that isn’t a fair position to hold. My point is that, if you do believe in the power of smoke, mirrors, low walk rates and beguiling mustaches, there’s no cheaper way to significantly improve your team WHIP than Carl Pavano. Every other starting pitcher in his range is a certified stud (Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, etc.) or Matt Latos, a young up-and-comer who you’d have to pry from an owner’s dead, lifeless, mouse-clicking finger in a keeper league.
By the way, just to share with you some strategic thoughts and an anomalous situation, the reason I am trying to trade Pavano in this league is because I am over the innings cap pace and leading in WHIP. Since assuming co-ownership of this team, my buddy and I are, for the first time, floundering toward the bottom of the standings at this fairly late point in the season. I’ve never seen a team put together a pitching category performance like this. Here’s how many points, out of 12, we are taking in each category, right now:
Wins - 1
Saves – 9
Ks – 12
ERA – 3.5
WHIP – 12
We have about 30 more innings pitched than the next team, so if we scale back our starts, I’d think we’d drop down to 10 points or so in Ks, but not much farther than that.
Meanwhile, our offense is brutal, despite not drafting a single starting pitcher until the 100th pick in the draft. Of course, three of those bats were Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Hill, and the finally awakening Aramis Ramirez. I am proud of the fact that we did actually draft Pavano though.
Fantasy baseball is just like real baseball in the sense that every season is its own animal, and no matter how much you think you’ve seen, you haven’t even come close to seeing it all.
Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.