THT Fantasy Focus

Today we’ll go over the American League Waiver Wire, and tomorrow we’ll do the National League.

Justin Duchscherer | OAK | RP - Hurting a little himself, but with Huston Street on the DL, Duke becomes the go-to-guy in the Oakland ‘pen. The A’s say he should be ready to pitch today. His BB/9 is up this season, but I expect it to come down shortly. Solid K rate, good GB rate. If you need saves this is the probably the best guy to pick up this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Octavio Dotel | KC | RP - Could be back on Tuesday, so if he’s available in your league, pick him up. Has pretty good peripherals, assuming his injuries haven’t affected him much. A closer with skills needs to be owned in all leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Maybe you’ve forgotten about this guy, but he had dynamite numbers to start the year. We’re going based on a small sample size, but he could be the answer to 3B woes for a lot of teams. I’m still struggling to fill Edwin Encarnacion‘s void in one league, and I’ll probably be picking up Iwamura soon. He’s got 20/20 potential, seems to have good discipline, and makes good contact. On Wednesday, Joe Maddon said Iwamura was 2-3 weeks from returning. Might be too soon to pick him up, but make sure you don’t get beat.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues until he proves otherwise.

Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 46% of ESPN leagues, Blanton should probably be owned in all of them, at least for now. Solid K/9, great BB/9, and good GB%. If his BB rate regresses he won’t be as valuable, but there’s a good chance that won’t happen.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Andrew Miller | DET | SP - Talked about him a couple of days ago. Was less than dominant at Single A.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be owned in only the deepest AL-only leagues.

Scott Baker | MIN | SP - Interesting guy. He’s a tough one to predict, but he’ll be getting the Twins start today and could stick in the rotation for a little while. Last year he had a 6.70 K/9 and 1.73 BB/9 in 83.1 IP. This year in AAA, he had an 8.65 K/9 and 0.84 BB/9 in 42.2 IP. These numbers indicate he has good control and can strike out a decent amount of Major League batters. He will need to do both to compensate for his terrible 34% FB rate. Baker will give up some HRs, but in deeper leagues he might be worth using for a little while.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Devern Hansack | BOS | SP - Has shown decent numbers in the minors this year and last with K rates above 8.00 and BB rates below 2.5. GB rate sits around a decent 42%. Tough to tell how this will translate to the majors. Might be worth a use in some AL-only leagues. It’ll be easier to make a judgement if he can get a few starts. Will probably be sent back down when Beckett gets back.
Recommendation: Too risky to be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in very deep AL-only leagues for a couple of starts.

Kevin Youkilis | BOS | 1B/3B/OF - Not sure why, but Youkilis is only owned in 66% of ESPN leagues and comes in at #17 on CBS’s Most Added Players list. Youkilis should be owned in all leagues. His Contact rate is much better than last year, and while it might regress he has good selectivity/patience and is a good LD hitter. He could also be good for 20 HRs. Plus, he hits for the Red Sox.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Reggie Willits | ANA | OF - I meant to write about him last week; I’m not sure why I skipped over him. He is a LD machine, both in the majors and minors. He nearly had a 90% Contact rate in the minors last year, and it’s at 85% in the majors this year. He takes a ton of walks and has good speed. Won’t hit .371 forever, but a BA well above .300 is very likely. He has 9 SBs so far. He doesn’t have much power, but this is a guy who can help a lot in 3 categories while he has a starting spot. It would be smart for the Angels to keep him starting, but it may not happen once Garrett Anderson returns.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues until he loses his starting spot.

Jesse Litsch | TOR | SP - Has shown good control and an amazing ability to induce GBs in the minors, but his first Major League start was less than impressive. His K/9 might not get above 5.00, and he’ll have to keep the walks down to be effective. Like Hansack, he’s a risky pickup, but the GBs make him a little bit safer if his other numbers blow up in his face. Might not get many more starts, but the possibility is there.
Recommendation: Should be watched in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep AL-only leagues, at least for now.

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:57pm

Sunday, May 20, 2007

National League Waiver Wire

Here’s the National League Waiver Wire for this week.

Ryan Doumit | PIT | C/1B/OF - Might not be in the bigs for a whole lot longer, but while he is he has value. He has pretty good power, and could hit about 8 with 200 ABs. He has a pretty good 82% Contact rate, 8.9% BB rate, and 20.3% LD rate, so a .280 average seems likely. He should grab a good amount of RBIs hitting 5th and grab a few Runs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues while he is starting. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues while he is starting.

Endy Chavez | NYM | OF - With Alou on the DL, Chavez will get some regular playing time. Carlos Gomez will start some games, but Chavez has a great Contact Rate and good BB and LD rates. Plus, he has good speed, so he could grab a few SBs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues until Alou gets back. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues until Alou gets back.

Kevin Gregg | FLA | RP - Tankersley hasn’t been pitching very well, and Kevin Gregg seems to be the favorite for saves until Owens gets back, which could be in a few days. I like Gregg a lot preseason, and had drafted him late in a couple of leagues with early drafts. Should be a good closer for the next few days.
Recommendation: Should owned in all leagues until Henry Owens returns.

Henry Owens | FLA | RP - Could be back on the 24th, and while his peripherals in the majors haven’t been very good, he will have a job closing, at least for a while, and is worth owning. I like Kevin Gregg’s numbers better, and if Owens falters Gregg would make a better closer this year.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Jeremy Hermida | FLA | OF - Still owned in just 2.5% of ESPN leagues, and I’ve had a few questions on him this week, so I’ll put him here again. Should have hit a few more HRs last year and could hit 15 with 400 ABs. Good patience and LD rate, but his 78% Contact Rate will need to improve for Hermida to hit more than .280-.285. Marlins lineup should help with RBIs and Runs, and Hermida can grab a handful of steals.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

Fred Lewis | SF | OF - Didn’t have overly impressive minor league numbers in 2006, but this year he’s had LD rates around 21% at both levels, in addition to 80% Contact Rates. He had an 11% BB rate in the minors and has a 7.9% BB rate in the majors. Has a little bit of power and can steal some bases. Might have some use in deeper leagues while Dave Roberts is out. Has been hitting at the top of the lineup quite often.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Rafael Soriano | ATL | RP - With Mike Gonzalez hurt, Soriano becomes the Braves’s go-to-guy before the 9th inning, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Wickman is out of a job before the year is over. Soriano would probably step in if that happened, with Gonzalez picking up a few saves here or there. Should be owned in leagues where relievers have value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - I’ll talk about him more in depth later today, but he still is only owned in about 2/3 of ESPN leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues, for now.

Yovanni Gallardo | MIL | SP - Gallardo is getting tough to ignore for the Brewers with a 12.46 K/9 and 3.02 BB/9 in AAA. There isn’t a pressing need for a SP in Milwaukee, but it’s tough to keep a guy like Gallardo down there. Could see a callup soon after June 1st.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and stashed in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be stashed in all NL-only leagues.

Sergio Mitre | FLA | SP - Only a 5.45 K/9, but a 2.18 BB/9 and 57.4% GB rate are very good. BABIP and HR/9 look good, and Mitre should be a pretty solid pitcher as long as he can keep the walks down, which he hasn’t been able to do in the past. Lack of Ks hurt his value in shallower leagues.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Chris Young | ARZ | OF - Similarly valued to Hermida. Could hit 20 HRs and get 20 SBs. He’s got a good (86%) Contact rate, but his 4.7% BB rate and 14.8% LD rate aren’t very good. If it stays like that a .270 BA is pretty likely. He’s in a good lineup though, and if he can stay at the top of it he should get a bunch of Runs. Should also get a decent amount of RBIs, maybe 65-70.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

This post originally appeared at http://saberoticians.blogspot.com/2007/05/waiver-wi.html

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:52pm

A Look at Tim Lincecum

Alright, so Tim Lincecum has pitched in 3 games so far, and today the Giants confirmed that he will remain in the starting rotation once Russ Ortiz returns from the DL. Ortiz will move to the bullpen and should become obsolete for Fantasy Baseball purposes. So what should we expect from Lincecum for the rest of the year?

His season line looks like this, through 3 starts:
10.31 K/9
3.44 BB/9
45.7% GB rate

Here is the breakdown of his three starts:
4.1 IP 5 K 5 BB 33% GB
7.0 IP 6 K 1 BB 57% GB
7.0 IP 10 K 1 BB 38% GB

His K/BB has improved every start, and he seems to have shown that he can wrack up the strikeouts even at this level. His GB has fluctuated, but I think it could settle in at around 48%. That, combined with his high Ks alone makes him an above average pitcher. The main concern with Lincecum coming up was his control. If he came up and started walking a lot of batters, he wouldn’t be worth a roster spot in a lot of leagues. However, he has walked just two batters in his last 14 IPs, so this may not be an issue.

We are looking at a small sample size here, but for now I think Lincecum looks like a keeper. If he can keep his BB rate steady, he could end up being a Top 12-15 Starting Pitcher. In the leagues I own him, I’m hanging tight.

This post originally appeared at http://saberoticians.blogspot.com/2007/05/look-at-tim-lincecum.html

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:50pm

Monday, May 21, 2007

Buy Low Candidate: Jason Giambi

There’s a lot surrounding Jason Giambi right now, which makes it a good time to buy low on him. To start, he’s only batting .268 after hitting .253 last year. He hasn’t hit over .300 since his first year with the Yankees in 2002. In addition, he has only hit 5 HRs through nearly two months of the season.

Next, he’s having trouble with a bone spur in his left heel. This is the problem I am most concerned with. This problem has kept him out of Yankee Interleague games being played in NL parks so far. Not healthy enough to play first base, Giambi has been relegated to sitting on the bench.

To top it all off, Giambi all but admitted on Friday to using steroids. His comments have allowed speculation to run rampant among reporters and speculators. Some have said that Giambi could be suspended. As far as I know, however, players can only be suspended if they have used steroids since 2005. Others have said that the Yankees might try and terminate Giambi’s large contract. Again, this seems doubtful at best. George Steinbrenner cares about one thing: winning. He doesn’t care how much money it costs or how ethically he does it (i.e. he doesn’t care if Giambi used steroids a couple years ago); he just wants to win. Giambi can help him do that. Giambi is one of the best players in baseball, and to think Steinbrenner will give him up so he can save a few bucks just doesn’t seem to be a likely scenario.

So where does all this leave Giambi’s fantasy value? In the gutter. Honestly, it’s already probably slipped through the gutter cracks and is being swept away down a sewage pipeline of grime. That makes this the best time to take advantage.

Preseason, I expected Giambi to hit around 45 HRs judging by his HitTracker numbers. While his power hasn’t been very impressive so far, and he has yet to hit a ball with a True Distance over 400 feet, I have to think that the power is still in there and will come out soon. His 78% Contact rate is the best it’s been since it was 80% in his 2002 season (the last season he hit over .300). His BB rate is down from its gargantuan 20% in 2005 and 2006, but 14% still ranks among the best in baseball. His career BB rate is 16.2%, so an increase is likely. His LD Percentage is a respectable 18.8%. All in all, I think his selectivity will allow him to hit .280. Plus, he hits for the Yankees, so a lot of RBIs and Runs should be a given.

My biggest concern with Giambi is his foot. I wish I knew a little more about how certain injuries affect players, but if you can get Giambi for cheap I think this is a risk that is well worth taking. If you get Giambi, just make sure you have a capable backup in case he can’t play in the next Yankee NL Interleague series. A guy like Dan Johnson would be more than adequate. Conor Jackson would work too.

This post originally appeared at http://saberoticians.blogspot.com/2007/05/buy-low-candidate-jason-giambi.html

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:42pm

A Look at Mike Mussina

Mike Mussina was a player I liked a lot in the preseason, but he has since been a disappointment for Fantasy Baseball owners. He went down early in the year to a hamstring injury, and in his time on the field has been less than inspiring. His line so far looks like this:
22.1 IP
4.03 K/9
2.01 BB/9
31% GB

His career numbers look like this:
7.19 K/9
2.02 BB/9
42.1% GB (since 2002)

We see that his BB rate has been pretty consistent with his career line, and I don’t expect to see much of a change in that area. His K rate is very alarming though. It is down more than 3 points from it’s career average. His GB rate is down more than 10 percentage points from his career average. Coming into the season I loved Mussina and hated Chien-Ming Wang, but if Mussina keeps up these numbers Wang might be the better bet (that is not an OK to go trade for Wang).

While I expect the GB rate to increase, I’m not quite sure why the K rate is like that. I thought maybe it had to do with the injury, so I took a look at his games since coming back from the DL to see if he has improved.

5.0 IP 3 K 0 BB 33% GB
6.0 IP 2 K 1 BB 35% GB
5.1 IP 1 K 0 BB 35% GB

No such luck there. So why is Mussina struggling? Honestly, I have no idea. He is 38 years old, and this might have something to do with it.

So what do you do with Mussina? He is owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues now, and if he were dropped in any league where I needed pitching, I would probably pick him up and sit him for another few starts. I have a hard time seeing Mussina posting a 4.00 K/9 come September, and even if he can get it up to 6.00 he should be a Top 25 pitcher with his great control and decent GB rate (assuming it gets back to its normal level, which it should). If you can trade for him cheaply and you need pitching, you might want to consider doing it. There are safer options that might come at the same price. Philip Hughes might be back in a month, and Yovanni Gallardo might be coming up in a few weeks. Jamie Shields might still be considered a fluke and come at a discount. Dave Bush, Javier Vazquez, and A.J. Burnett are also some good guys to buy on. All said, Mussina could pay nice rewards, but there is some risk involved.

This post originally appeared at http://saberoticians.blogspot.com/2007/05/look-at-mike-mussina.html

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:36pm

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Barry Zito: Fantasy Disappointment?

You know Barry Zito. Former member of the Oakland “Big Three.” Part of a rock band. Used to go out with Alyssa Milano. Known for his 12-6 curveball. Signed with the Giants for $126 million. Yeah… that guy. Did you also know that he has a 3-5 record and a 5.13 ERA? If you follow baseball, chances are you did. So why is the highest paid pitcher in baseball putting up numbers like Steve Trachsel? Well, honestly, because they have a similar skill level.

Hopefully you read my Preseason Analysis of Barry Zito and didn’t draft him. If you did, you’ve got a big problem on your hands. In that article I mentioned how Zito has only an average K rate (6.50 K/9), an unimpressive BB rate (3.50 BB/9), and a poor GB rate (38%). Has the move to the National League changed anything for Zito? Let’s take a look.

4.97 K/9
4.64 BB/9
38.0% GB
.263 BABIP
0.83 HR/9

Well, it seems his K rate and his BB rate is worse than it has been in the past. I didn’t see a K rate close to 7.0 as terribly unlikely, seeing as how he’ll get to throw to pitchers in the NL, but we’ve actually seen a decrease in Ks. I expect this to increase at least to his career levels, but even that will only be around average. His BB rate should decrease a little, but I don’t see it getting much lower than 4.00. His GB percentage is perfectly in line with his career numbers, so no change should happen there.

We see that Zito is actually getting lucky when we look at his BABIP and HR/9 numbers. The BABIP should be up nearly .040 points, and the HR/9 does not reflect his low BB rate. It should jump above 1.00 shortly.

While I don’t expect Zito to finish the year with an ERA above 5.00, don’t expect it to get much lower than 4.50. I said the Giants made a mistake, and I’m sticking by that statement. I can’t say how glad I am the Mets didn’t shell out even the $80 million they reportedly offered him. If you own Zito and someone in your league still thinks he is good, dump him. Otherwise, wait for his ERA to drop below 5.00 and take the best offer you get.

This post originally appeared at http://saberoticians.blogspot.com/2007/05/barry-zito-fantasy-disappointment.html

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:34pm

Oakland Closer Update

Sorry I didn’t post yesterday guys; things were crazy around here.

Anyway, Justin Duchscherer joined Huston Street on Oakland’s DL today. It’s safe to drop Duke in leagues where setup men are worthless. So who is the guy to own in Oakland?

It seems that Alan Embree is the guy to own, as Manager Bob Geren said that he will be used in “more cases than not.” Kiko Calero and crew might steal a save here or there, but it seems Embree will get the majority of them while Street is out. So what should we expect out of Embree?

Strangely, his K rate has been quite unstable, but I think his current 6.87 K/9 seems about right. His 2.45 BB/9 also seems about right, giving Embree a K/BB of 2.80. Very solid. His 31.1% GB rate is down 10 percentage points from his average since 2002, and if he can’t get it back up he’ll blow some saves by giving up the longball. I expect it to increase though, so no worries there. Overall, Embree is a solid option as long as Street is out. He should be owned in all leagues.

This post originally appeared at http://saberoticians.blogspot.com/2007/05/oakland-closer-update.html

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:31pm

Iwamura to Return Monday

Akinori Iwamura has been playing in rehab games recently, and could potentially come off the Disabled List on Monday. When he does, he will most likely resume his role as the Devil Rays’ everyday third basemen.

“He’s doing very well,” manager Joe Maddon said. “He hasn’t felt any pulling sensation in his side.”

Iwamura was a guy I liked a lot in the beginning of the season (and even picked up in one league, although he surprisingly went on the DL the next day). He had an 82% Contact rate, 21.1% BB rate, and a 29.5% LD rate. While the BB rate and LD% should drop, as long as they don’t go too far Iwamura could hit over .300. He also had 3 SBs and could get 20 or 25 if he doesn’t get injured again. He only had 1 HR, but it had a True Distance of 414 feet, according to HitTracker. He could end up with 15 HRs. The D’Rays’ lineup is good, so Iwamura should also get plenty of RBIs and Runs.

If you need a 3B, Iwamura seems like he can help you in every category. Now’s the time to pick him up.

This post originally appeared at http://saberoticians.blogspot.com/2007/05/iwamura-to-return-monday.html

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:09pm

Saturday, May 26, 2007

Ranking the Young Third Basemen: Part I

Terrible, terribly sorry for the scarcity of posts this week. I’ll try to make up for it today. Right now, let’s take a look at the young third basemen that are quite possibly on your waiver wire if you’re in a shallow or moderately deep league. I’ve been asked about a few of them over the past couple days, so hopefully this post will answer all of those questions.

I’ll first take a look at each player’s stats in the majors this year, and then we’ll see if they mesh with his minor league numbers. I’ll look at 3 guys now, the rest in a couple of hours, and then provide a list ranking them later this afternoon.

Alex Gordon - Picked by many as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite back in March, Gordon has disappointed those people so far. Let’s look at his prospects for the rest of the year. He has a 71% Contact rate, a 9.9% BB rate, and a 22.7% LD rate. His BB and LD stats translate to better than a .252 BABIP, although his low Contact rate will prevent him from hitting for a very high BABIP. It should increase to maybe .250 or .260, but if he keeps striking out it won’t get much higher. Gordon has only hit 3 HRs so far, but each has had a True Distance over 400 ft according to HitTracker.

In 2006, he had an 80% Contact rate, 12.5% BB rate, and a 16.3% LD rate in Double A. Judging by that, there is a decent chance he could see an improved contact rate, which would help his average. I don’t see his BB rate getting too much higher this year, but it is at a respectable level. He hit 29 HRs and 40 2Bs and 3Bs, and combined with the power he’s shown this year I’d say Gordon is in for a power surge the rest of the year. I’d say 18-20 HRs is a possibility. The Royals lineup is better than advertised, so Gordon should get some RBIs and a decent number of Runs if he can move up a spot or two.

Akinori Iwamura - Coming off the DL next week, Iwamura was a beast in April. He had an 82% Contact rate, 21.1% BB rate, and a 29.5% LD rate. Those numbers are bound to come down, but even if he ends up with an 11% BB rate and 22% LD rate Iwamura could hit .285-.290. He also stole three bases, and after saying preseason that he was aiming for 40, I think he could still grab 20 or 25 by year’s end. He also said he wanted 20 HRs, and his only one in April went a True Distance of 414 feet.

We’ll look at Iwamura’s Japanese numbers since this is his first year in America. In 2006, he had a 77% Contact rate and an 11.3% BB rate. In 2005, he had a 73.5% K rate and a 10.2% BB rate. For his career he had a 75.5% Contact rate and a 9.3% BB rate. Judging by that, I’d say his Contact rate is bound to drop into the high 70s and his BB rate might finish around 9 or 10%. With those numbers (and a 22% LD rate), Iwamura could hit .275 or .280. He had 44, 30, and 32 HRs, respectively, in 2004, 2005, and 2006, so 15 or 20 might be a possibility for this year. The D’Rays lineup is pretty good, and if he bats 6th again he should get his share of RBIs. His walks and a decent back of the order will help him get a few Runs.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Like Alex Gordon, Kouzmanoff was an early favorite for Rookie of the Year, except in the NL. Also like Alex Gordon, he got off to a slow start. So far in 2006, he has a 75% Contact rate, 7.7% BB rate, and 20.2% LD rate. So-so, unspectacular numbers. The good news is that they can improve. The other good news is that he’s got some power. He’s hit 4 HRs so far (excluding his one last night), and they had True Distances of 378, 391, 429, and 447 feet. Seems like he can hit the ball a good distance.

In 244 Double AA At-Bats, Kouzmanoff had an 87.7% Contact rate, 8.3% BB rate, and an 18.4% LD rate. In 100 AAA At-Bats, he had an 89.3% Contact Rate, 8% BB rate, and a 23.3% LD rate. Judging by these, I’d say his Contact Rate should improve and his BB and LD rates seem about right. Since May 14th, he’s had an 82.8% Contact Rate, so I think he is well on his way to becoming the player I expected him to be preseason. He had 15 HRs in AA and 6 HRs in AAA, so I think 20 HRs in the majors is pretty likely. The Padres lineup is good (although Brian Giles is DL bound), and if Kouzmanoff can get himself up a few spots he should be fine with RBIs and get a decent amount of Runs.

OK. In an hour or two I’ll post about a few more 3B, including Mark Reynolds, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ryan Braun. Later this afternoon, I’ll post a list ranking these guys.

This post originally appeared at http://saberoticians.blogspot.com/2007/05/ranking-young-third-basemen.html

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:34am

Ranking the Young Third Basemen: Part II

Alright, I’m back to look at another set of Young 3B that might be on your Waiver Wire. We’ll get right to it.

Edwin Encarnacion - I’ve talked about Edwin a lot over the past month or so. In 2007, so far, Edwin has an 82.8% Contact rate, 8.7% BB rate, and a 20.8% LD rate. In 2006, he had an 80.8% Contact rate, a 9.2% BB rate, and a 21.1% LD rate in 406 ABs. In 2005, he had a 71.6% Contact rate, 8.7% BB rate, and a 25.2% LD rate in 211 ABs. His LD and BB rates might improve just a bit, and his Contact rate should remain steady. These numbers don’t translate to a .224 BA, and given an opportunity he should turn things around. A .280 BA seems like a good estimate.

He’s only hit 1 HR so far in 2007, but it went a True Distance of 402 feet. In 2006, he hit 8 of his 15 HRs past 400 feet. According to HitTracker, he had a 4.00 No Doubt-to-Just Enough ratio, meaning he was a good bet to improve his HR total. I still see 30 HR power out of Edwin eventually, and if he can play fulltime once Josh Hamilton returns (which might be unlikely) he could be good for 20-25 HRs this year. His FB% is up to 42.7% and his GB% is down to 36.5%.

The Reds lineup is good, but it would be better if it was better managed. If he plays and hits in the middle of the order, Edwin should get plenty of RBIs and Runs, but we’re looking at a big IF. I mean, the Reds were batting Adam Dunn 6th behind Jeff Conine and Alex Gonzalez some games and are giving Nick Hopper and Juan Castro far too many ABs.

Mark Reynolds - Hasn’t been in the majors long, but has made a major splash in the time he has been. So far, he has a 81.1% Contact rate, a 7.5% BB rate, and a 19.4% LD rate in 37 ABs. He’s hit 3 HRs so far, and they’ve gone True Distances of 371, 405, and a whopping 459 feet.

Here are his Minor League numbers across several levels:
2005 | Low-A | 431 ABs | 77.4% Contact | 7.4% BB | 13.7% LD | 19 HR
2006 | High-A | 273 ABs | 77.6% Contact | 12.7% BB | 17.2% LD | 23 HR
2006 | Double A | 114 ABs | 71.9% Contact | 8.7% BB | 14.5% LD | 8 HR
2007 | Triple A | 134 ABs | 76.1% Contact | 12.9% BB | 20.6% LD | 6 HR

We see that his Major League numbers this year don’t seem to be entirely sustainable. His Contact rate should fall to perhaps 75%, but his BB rate might stay level and his LD% might only drop a percentage point. His power is legit, and if he were to be a starter for the rest of the season he could get up to 25 HRs. His .519 BABIP will drop, as will his .459 BA, and it should settle somewhere near .260-.265. The Dan Uggla comparisons people draw seem to be pretty accurate.

The D’Backs lineup is very good, so he will get plenty of RBIs and Runs, especially if he keeps batting 4th and 5th. That they are comfortable hitting him there indicates they would like find him ABs even after Chad Tracy gets back. That may prove, though, with all of the quality hitters in their lineup. He might end up as a 3-4 game per week guy if they keep him in the majors.

Ryan Braun - Braun isn’t a guy I was able to buy into the hype of until this year (to a certain extent). A highly touted prospect of the Brewers, Braun’s call up was announced on Thursday. Let’s first look at his minor league numbers.

2005 | Low-A | 152 ABs | 79.3% Contact | 5.5% BB | 25.6% LD | 8 HRs | 2 SBs
2006 | High-A | 226 ABs | 79% Contact | 8.9% BB | 11.6% LD | 7 HRs | 14 SBs
2006 | Double A | 231 ABs | 78% Contact | 82.% BB | 12.3% LD | 15 HRs | 12 SBs
2007 | Triple A | 109 ABs | 90.8% Contact | 10.7% BB | 22.2% LD | 9 HRs | 4 SBs

We see that up until 2007, Braun’s numbers were very mediocre. Where did this spike come from in 2007? Did he change something? Did he just get lucky? And most importantly, how will these numbers translate to the majors? Honestly, it’s a tough call. His Contact rate could be anywhere from 75% to 90%. His BB rate could be anywhere from 5% to 8%. His LD rate (yikes) could be anywhere from 12% to 23%. Let’s say that he settles at around this level: 80% Contact, 7% BB, and 18% LD. That would mean a BA around .270-.275. He might be able to hit dozen HRs the rest of the way, but he also has a little bit of speed. He could end up with 12-15 SBs, which is where a lot of his value comes from. Not many third baggers can steal 15 bases.

The Brewers lineup is good. Braun batted second last night, a spot that would provide a good numbers of runs and a fair number of RBIs.

Andy LaRoche - The Dodgers’ top 3B prospect was called up on May 6 and has been a flop thus far. He’s hitting with a 89.2% Contact rate, a 29.2% BB rate, and a 19.4% LD rate. Despite these good numbers, he has just a .233 BABIP and a .206 BA. He has yet to hit a HR. These numbers will certainly improve.

Here are his minor league numbers:
2005 | High-A | 249 ABs | 84.7% Contact | 7.1% BB | 21 HRs | 6 SBs
2005 | Double A | 227 ABs | 76.2% Contact | 12.4% BB | 9 HRs | 2 SBs
2006 | Double A | 230 ABs | 86.1% Contact | 15.1% BB | 9 HRs | 6 SBs
2006 | Triple A | 202 ABs | 84.2% Contact | 11.0% BB | 10 HRs | 3 SBs

In 2007, he had a 85.7% Contact rate, a 10.1% BB rate, and a 12.9% LD rate. He also hit 3 HRs in 98 ABs. I expect LaRoche to definitely pick up the pace shortly. His Contact rate might drop to 84%, and his BB rate will certainly drop, possibly to 9-10%. We don’t have much to base his LD rate on (not available for 2005 and 2006 on MinorLeagueSplits.com), but 19% is modest enough where it could remain stable. Those numbers could give LaRoche a .275-.280 BA. He also might be good for 12 HRs and 5 SBs. He’s been hitting between 6th and 9th in the Dodgers lineup, so RBIs and Runs won’t be as plentiful if he continues to hit towards the back. The Dodgers lineup is deep though, and even batting 7th or 8th should give LaRoche a decent number of RBIs.

And that’s it. We’ll rank these guys a little bit later based on, as one reader requested, short-term and long-term potential.

This post originally appeared at http://saberoticians.blogspot.com/2007/05/ranking-young-third-basemen-part-ii.html.

Posted by Derek Carty at 12:30pm

This is Page 1 of 3 THT Fantasy Focus pages 1 2 3 >

Search THT:

Saturday, May 19, 2007

American League Waiver Wire