THT Fantasy Focus

Alright. I assume most of you are familiar with some sort of Waiver Wire column. Each week, I’ll talk about some guys that might be available to be freely picked up in your league, and whether or not you should be the one to pick them up. I’ll talk a little about each player and give a recommendation based on league size. All recommendations are based on a 5x5 format, but if you play in a different type of league, feel free to e-mail me, and I will be happy to help you out. This will become a weekly post here, coming every Friday, to help you decide who to pick up in time for the Sunday deadline that some leagues impose on setting your lineup for the week.

Since this is my first Waiver Wire at The Hardball Times, I’ll make it a big one. A lot of the guys here I have talked about in previous installments at my old blog, so bare with me if some of this seems a little repetitive. I’ll take a look at the National League tomorrow. Starting next Friday, expect both leagues to come on Friday.

American League

Kevin Slowey | MIN | SP - I talked about Slowey the other day, but as a refresher, I think a line that looks like this is a good possibility: 7.00 K/9 | 2.25 BB/9 | 42% GB. That would make him useful in certain leagues, but if his K/9 doesn’t get above 6.00 he will lose a lot of value.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest AL-only leagues, until he proves otherwise.

Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Iwamura was discussed last weekend as part of the Third Basemen feature, so I won’t spend much time on him. He has shown amazing contact skills and discipline at the plate, as well as a desire to steal bases, so far this year. Some numbers seem to be better than his Japanese counterparts, so a small regression might be in order. I could still see him easily hitting .280 with 15 HRs and 25 SBs, though. If no regression occurs, Iwamura could end up as a Top 7 3B.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Boof Bonser | MIN | SP - A guy I liked preseason, Bonser has surpassed even my expectations. His fantastic 9.82 K/9 might decrease a little, but it shouldn’t fall below 8.00. His 4.33 BB/9 is worse than last year, and might improve, but even if it doesn’t and his K/9 settles around 8.50, a 2.00 is usable in combination with his 41% ground ball rate. If the K rate doesn’t fall very far, Bonser would be even more valuable. Regardless, he is more valuable than his 24.6% ownership in ESPN leagues indicates.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Surprising that a guy with a 2.32 ERA is owned in just 34% of ESPN leagues. His K/BB sits at 2.00, and his K/9 is an average-looking 6.27. His 3.14 BB/9 is pretty good, but it might not remain that low. His 50.5% ground ball rate is much higher than it has ever been (41% since 2002) and should see a regression. His 0.27 HR/9 will, in turn, increase. Overall, Gaudin’s numbers now are just good enough to get him owned, but with a decrease in his ground ball rate he would become just an average option. Because his BB rate threatens a decline, I’d say Gaudin is a very risky pickup. You would probably be better off taking someone else.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Paul Byrd | CLE | SP - Byrd hasn’t walked a batter since April 26, leaving his BB/9 at 0.47. He’s shown excellent control in the past, but this number is sure to rise. When it does, his sub-5.00 K/9 will have difficulty sustaining a K/BB over 2.00. Throw in his terrible 35% ground ball rate, and you get a pitcher you should probably pass on.
Recommendation - Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.

Josh Beckett | BOS | SP - Not sure why Beckett is listed as #10 on CBS’s Most Added Players list, but if, for whatever reason, Beckett is available, pick him up… immediately. Good K rate, good BB rate, and a good ground ball rate. Plus, he pitches for the Red Sox.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Alan Embree | OAK | CL - Owned in just 48% of ESPN leagues, Embree is a closer. Every closer (with a few rare exceptions) should be owned in nearly every league. Pick up Embree until Huston Street or Justin Duchscherer returns.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Octavio Dotel | KC | CL - Like Embree, Dotel is a closer. He needs to be owned. His ownership is up to 70% in ESPN leagues, but that’s not high enough. Given the choice of the two, take Dotel. He has a much firmer hold on his job.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Joakim Soria | KC | RP - With Dotel back, Soria is no longer the closer. He has also been placed on the DL. Many owners will drop Soria when they put the two together. Soria still has value though, first as a decent setup man in leagues where they are valuable. Dotel has an injury history, and one small injury would thrust Soria back into 9th inning duties. If Dotel gets traded, Soria would also get his job back. In deep leagues where you can afford to stash him, Soria is a good bet to pick up some more saves before the year is out.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep leagues where you can afford to stash him.

Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Talked about a few weeks ago, but I have to mention him again with the Jason Giambi report today (sorry to everyone who bought low him. I too am stuck with him now in a couple of leagues). Johnson has an 85% Contact rate and a 16% Walk rate to go with a 20% Line Drive rate. His vision problem has been corrected, and Johnson is tearing it up now. He also has good power, and 25 HRs is a good bet. He hits in the heart of a good Oakland lineup, so he should have plenty of value, even if he is only eligible at 1B.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all but the shallowest leagues.

Ryan Garko | CLE | 1B - 82% Contact Rate is good for a guy with 25-30 HR power like Garko, but his 5% Walk rate isn’t very good. It was 7.0% last season (over 209 PAs), so it could improve a bit. His 23.2% LD rate is very good, but it was just 16% last year. That might see a little bit of a regression, but Garko could hit .270-ish. Playing 1B drains a lot of his value, but he could be useful in deeper leagues.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team NL only leagues. Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Alex Gordon | KC | 3B - Like Iwamura, Gordon was part of the Third Basemen discussion last weekend. Probably has more power, a little less speed, and worse contact skills than Iwamura. Has potential, especially in keeper leagues.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest AL-only leagues.

Tadahito Iguchi | CHW | 2B - His 85% Contact rate and 11.8% Walk rate are the best of his career (they were 80% and 9.6% in 2006). His 18.1% Line Drive rate is also better than his 15% of 2005, but not as good as his 22.4% LD rate in his rookie year (2004). His Fly ball rate has risen from 29.2% to 39.4% since then, so the Line Drive rate might remain around 18%. Put all of this together, and Iguchi’s .250 BABIP and .221 BA just doesn’t make sense. He also is capable of hitting around 15 HRs and stealing 15 bases, so Iguchi doesn’t deserve to be dropped at the rate he has been. 16% ownership in ESPN leagues is too low for a second baseman capable of hitting .290 with 15 HRs, 15 SBs, and 100 Runs.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Blanton may be turning the corner in his third year. Has a 6.72 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, and a 44.8% ground ball rate. None looks likely to see much of a regression, so Blanton should remain a pretty safe option the rest of the season.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Reggie Willits | LAA | OF - Willits got off to a blazing start, then cooled a bit, and now is beginning to heat up again. He is a LD machine, both in the majors and minors. He nearly had a 90% Contact rate in the minors last year, and it’s at 82% in the majors this year. He takes a ton of walks and has good speed. A BA well above .300 is very likely. He has 11 SBs so far. He doesn’t have much power, but this is a guy who can help a lot in 3 categories while he has a starting spot. It would be smart for the Angels to keep him starting, but it may not happen once Garrett Anderson returns.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all but the shallowest leagues as long as he has a starting spot.

Fausto Carmona | CLE | SP - Low Ks keeps his value low in all 5x5 leagues, but his 61.3% GB rate helps him out a lot. His BB/9 isn’t good enough to even attempt to compesate for his horrendous K rate. Has a lot more value in 4x4 leagues (although his WHIP won’t help you and his ERA won’t be great), but the recommendation below is based on 5x5 leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Cliff Lee | CLE | SP - All of hype before last season was completely unfounded. Lee just doesn’t have what it takes to be a good pitcher, much less an elite one. For this year, stay away from the low K and GB rates unless you’re in a very deep league.
Recommendation: Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:42pm

Matt Capps to Close

Today, the Pittsburg Pirates announced the demotion of Salomon Torres from the closer role in favor of Matt Capps. Capps has a poor 34.9% ground ball rate that will lead to Home Runs, but if it increases to it’s 2006 level of 40.7% the damage won’t be too bad. His K/9 is up from 6.25 in 2006 to 7.36 in 2007, but at age 23 this doesn’t look very fishy. He showed good control last year with a 1.34 BB/9 and has maintained this so far in 2007 with a 1.84 BB/9. A K/BB of 4.00 is very good and makes Capps a pretty good option despite his low ground ball rate. He should be owned in all leagues. Torres can be dropped in most leagues, but should remain first in line should Capps go down.

Posted by Derek Carty at 7:35pm

Saturday, June 02, 2007

Waiver Wire: National League

I'm back today to look at the National Leaguers worthy (or not worthy) of a pickup in your league.

Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Mentioned several times before, Jackson is a guy that I like a lot. He has an 89% Contact rate, 14% Walk rate, and 21% Line Drive rate. Jackson should finish well above .300 by year's end. He also showed good power last year, making 20 HRs a pretty good possibility. Batting second won't help his RBI numbers, but he has good hitters behind him and should easily get to 100 Runs. If we were to be shifted into the 4th of 5th spot he'd be a solid 4 category contributor, although this seems somewhat unlikely. Given the choice of Jackson or Dan Johnson, go with Johnson.
Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - Part of the Third Basemen feature last weekend, Encarnacion is one of the better Third Basemen you'll find on waivers this year. Should hit at least .280 and has the power to hit 20-25 HRs. Could grab 10 SBs, and he's hitting in a good lineup for RBIs.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Ryan Braun | MIL | 3B - Another guy talked about last weekend, Braun has 15-20 HR power, could steal 12-15 bases, and might hit .270. He will need to improve his patience though as his 3% BB rate isn't very good.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Matt Capps | PIT | CL - The new closer in Pittsburg was talked about a little yesterday. Not a great K rate and his ground ball rate is a little concerning, but he has good control and the ground balls were at a more acceptable level last year.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Brad Hennessey | SF | CL - Another new closer, Hennessey is more risky than Capps in that he doesn't have as much security and he hasn't been a reliever for long. His numbers could regress a little, but if they don't he's probably a better bet than Capps.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Kevin Gregg | FLA | CL - With Benitez aboard it may only be a matter of time before Gregg loses his job, although he might be a little better pitcher. Keep Gregg until Benitez takes the job. If Benitez gets the job, with his reputation and Gregg's good play of late, the Marlins might keep him on a short leash, so Gregg should then be kept in leagues where you can afford it.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Armando Benitez | FLA | RP - Gregg will remain the closer for now, but Benitez will have a shot to take the job. His K rate looks good, although his BB rate has been rather poor the past few years. His ground ball rate is up significantly and should see a drop. Own Benitez until he falters.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Rafael Soriano | ATL | RP - With Mike Gonzalez hurt, Soriano becomes the Braves' go-to-guy before the 9th inning, and it wouldn't surprise me if Wickman is out of a job before the year is over. One of the best setup men in the game, Soriano should be owned in leagues where relievers have value and for those speculating on saves down the road.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Jeremy Hermida | FLA | OF - Should have hit a few more HRs last year and could hit 15 with 400 ABs. Has pretty good patience and a decent Line Drive rate, but his 68% Contact Rate will need to improve for Hermida to hit more than .270. If it could get back to the 78% of last year he might approach .280. Marlins lineup should help with RBIs and Runs, and Hermida can grab a handful of steals.
Recommendation - Should be considered in owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Sergio Mitre | FLA | SP - Has his K/9 up to 6.62 and his 1.74 BB/9 and 61% ground ball rate are very good. BABIP and HR/9 look good, and Mitre should be a pretty solid pitcher as long as he can keep the walks down, which he hasn't been able to do in the past. Average strikeout rate hurts his value in shallow leagues.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Corey Hart | MIL | OF - While he isn't guaranteed to continue getting it, Hart is getting regular playing time now. He showed good power last year and could hit 20 HRs the rest of the way given regular playing time. His 83% Contact rate is up from 75% last year. His 7.7% BB rate is up from 6.7% last year, and his Line Drive rate is up to 18.4% from 16.7% last year. That could get him a BA around .275-.280. He also has 7 steals so far, so he should help in that category too.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues, for now. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues, for now.

Andy LaRoche | LAD | 3B - Sent down by the Dodgers this week, LaRoche can safely be dropped in most leagues. He did a great job getting on base and probably didn't deserve the demotion, so we should see him back up at some time this year. Hold onto him in deep leagues in you want, but there might be better options anyway.
Recommendation - Should only be owned in very deep mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in 14-team NL-only leagues, for now.

If you have questions about any other players, feel free to shoot me an e-mail, and I'd be happy to answer your questions.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:04pm

Sunday, June 03, 2007

Homer Bailey to Start Saturday?

Well, it appears Homer Bailey might be the third big-time pitching prospect to make his debut in the majors this year. Philip Hughes and Tim Lincecum were called up earlier in the year and put up good numbers (although Hughes has since been injured), but Bailey is likely to put a stop to this trend. The Reds sent down fifth starter Bobby Livingston yesterday and will be unable to recall him for nine more days. The Reds will need another starter by Saturday, earlier than they could bring Livingston back, and MLB.com indicates Homer Bailey is the likely choice to make the start.

Let's take a quick look at Bailey's minor league numbers.

2005 | A | 103.3 IP | 10.89 K/9 | 5.40 BB/9 | 48.7% GB
2006 | A+ | 70.7 IP | 10.06 K/9 | 2.80 BB/9 | 44.2% GB
2006 | AA | 67.7 IP | 10.24 K/9 | 3.72 BB/9 | 49.7% GB
2007 | AAA | 56.7 IP | 8.10 K/9 | 3.81 BB/9 | 46.0% GB

We see that Bailey didn't struggle at all striking people out until this year, but an 8.10 K/9 is still decent. Towards the end of Spring Training, the Reds told Bailey to start using his off-speed pitches more and to rely less on his mid-to-high 90s fastball. This is something he will need to do in order to be successful in the majors, so it's good that he is starting now. The fastball, however, was most likely a dominant factor in his great K rates through Double A. The combination of the move to Triple A, with better hitters, and his lack of reliance on the fastball seems to be the reason for the lower K rate. It'll probably decline a little more once he reaches the majors, and a K/9 in the low-to-mid 7s seems likely until Bailey adjusts to the majors.

Even a 7.00 strikeout rate is manageable for many big league pitchers, but the successful ones are able to pair it with a good walk rate and/or a great ground ball rate. Bailey's groundball rate will be pretty good, in the mid-to-high 40s, but his walk rate is what will hold him back from being a good pitcher this year. It was terrible in 2005 at Low-A Dayton, but improved at the beginning of 2006 when he was promoted to High-A Sarasota. It has risen at each level since then, and it should continue to rise if he makes the jump to the majors this week. A BB/9 over 4.00 should be a certainty. That would leave Bailey with a K/BB of 1.88 if he can manage a K/9 of 7.50. That's not going to be enough for Bailey to live up to the hype he has gotten over the past couple of years.

"'It might be bigger than bobblehead night,' Reds manager Jerry Narron joked." Sorry, Jerry; I just don't see it. The Reds should get a spike in attendance on Saturday, but the fans are going to be disappointed. Bailey should be strongly considered in 12 (because of his Ks) and picked up in 14-team mixed leagues. He should also be picked up in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues, but if you have to use your top waiver priority on him, you probably shouldn't. Wait for a guy like Adam Miller or Yovani Gallardo. Don't rely on Bailey to be your team's savior.

Posted by Derek Carty at 12:40pm

Monday, June 04, 2007

Rich Hill: For Real or Fluke?

After his first three starts of the year, Rich Hill had allowed just 1 Earned Run. At that point, many people began to cite Hill's great potential and fantastic start to the year as the reasoning behind a potential ascension to the elite ranks of starting pitchers. A couple of people I know even began to say that Hill would end up a legitimate candidate for the 2007 NL Cy Young award. Hold your horses there... those are some big predictions to make just three games into the season.

Well, that was back in April. We're nearly a week into June now, and Hill's ERA stands at an impressive 2.89 and his WHIP at a phenominal 1.03. Is Hill truly becoming one of the elite pitchers in baseball, or is he on the receiving end of some good luck? Let's take a look at some of Hill's critical numbers.

71.7	IP
7.91	K/9
3.01	BB/9
2.63	K/BB
36.6%	GB%
1.26	HR/9
.223	BABIP
82.8%	LOB%

We see that Hill has a good, but not great Strikeout rate. It sits just below 8.00, which provides a lot of value to fantasy leaguers just on its own. His Walk rate has improved from 3.53 in 2006 to just over 3.00 this year, leaving him with a good, but not great, K/BB of 2.63. Seems all of these stats are good, but not great.

His ground ball rate isn't good or great. It's up from 30.0% last year, but it is still well-below average. It is unlikely to improve much. A ground ball rate that low should lead to a lot of Home Runs, but as we see Hill has given up a rather average 1.26 HR/9. Because his ground ball rate is below-average, we see that he is giving up a few less home runs than he should be.

Now, let's look at his hits and runs. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is nearly .080 below average. We can actually see that Hill has the second lowest BABIP in all of baseball among qualified starting pitchers. Hill isn't giving up nearly enough hits, and this is liable to change at any time. When it does, his WHIP should raise significantly.

We also see that on the hits (and walks) that he is giving up, a disproportionate number of these batters are never crossing the plate. On average, a pitcher should allow 28% of base runners to score. In other words, he should strand 72% of these base runners. A large variance from this number is an indication of either good or bad luck. Hill, allowing just 17% of his base runners to score, is getting some very good luck, as he seems to be doing with most of his stats.

Over time, Hill's HR/9, BABIP, and LOB% will regress towards the mean and his surface numbers will, correspondingly, worsen. Hill is a pretty good pitcher, but he is not the great pitcher that many are heralding him as. He has the potential to one day become a very good pitcher (although the low ground ball rate will always prevent him from becoming one of the absolute best), but for now his fantasy owners will have to settle for just good. If you can trade him for a proven starter such as Felix Hernandez, Curt Schilling, Cole Hamels, Jeremy Bonderman, John Smoltz, or a number of others, do it.

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:44pm

A Look at John Buck

On May 28, Kansas City Royals manager Buddy Bell officially announced that he will begin to have catcher John Buck start on days when Gil Meche, Jorge de la Rosa, and Odalis Perez are pitching. On days when Brian Bannister and Scott Elarton are pitching, Jason LaRue will start behind the plate. With the way Buck is hitting, I have a hard time justifying this move, even if Bannister and Elarton like throwing to LaRue better. Elarton is quite possibly the worst pitcher in the league, and Bannister is far from a good pitcher. I doubt having LaRue catching them regularly will make them any better.

So how good is Buck? His most noticeable skill, so far, is his power. He had 8 Home Runs coming into today, when he hit 2 off Jamie Shields. HitTracker only has data on 7 of these HRs, so that's what we'll concentrate on. Of those 7 HRs, 6 were measured to have True Distances of 398 or higher. His furthest HR went a True Distance of 432. With the distance he's been blasting these HRs, logic dictates he should also be hitting some HRs that don't go as far. He hasn't hit many of these yet. Actually, he's only hit 1 (383 true feet). That should change as Buck pads his HR totals.

Buck's power isn't without precedent. Last year, Buck hit 6 of his 11 Home Runs past 400 true feet and 4 past 430 true feet. One of these HRs went 441 feet, and another went 451 feet. While last year his fly ball rate was 34.7%, this year it has jumped to 47.4%, further validating his power. I definitely expect Buck to continue hitting Home Runs, and possibly at a quicker pace.

Buck is also showing decent contact skills. He currently has a .281 Batting Average, .035 higher than his career average. Is this increase for real? While his Contact rate is 76%, similar to its 2005 and 2006 level, his Walk rate has shot up to 13.0% this year; it was 6.5% in 2006. Buck certainly seems to be more selective, and this could explain the rise from a .290 BABIP to a .310 BABIP, and thus the increase batting average. With such a huge increase in his Walk rate, we would expect to see at least a steady Line Drive rate, if not an improved one. 19.8% in 2006, it has dropped all the way down to 12.6% this year. The most likely explanation (aside from the possibility that it is a fluke and will improve shortly) is his increased Fly Ball rate. Going up nearly a dozen percentage points, his other two rates were bound to suffer a little. His Ground Ball rate has dropped about 5 percentage points, to 40%, although a larger drop was, and still is, a possibility. I don't see Buck getting back to a 20% Line Drive rate, but I don't think 17% is out of the question. His increase from a 33.7 AB/HR to 12.5% AB/HR will also help the Batting Average. A BA around .275 seems about right for Buck.

So how much playing time should Buck expect to get? Well, thanks to Buddy Bell, we have a good idea about this number. Catching for 3 of 5 pitchers, Buck will be playing in at least 60% of the team's games. There are 162 games in a season, to be divided (roughly) evenly among five starting pitching slots. I know that it is not exactly equal, how a fifth starter isn't used until the middle of April, and so on, but this means each slot should start approximately 32.4 games per season. Right now, Buck is scheduled to catch for three of these five pitching slots, and the three pitchers occupying these slots all have decent job security. Since Buck won't be needing sporadic days off like normal catchers (these off-days are built into his schedule), it is reasonable to expect Buck to start in a bare minimum of 97 games. Now, let's say Sweeney takes even one trip to the Disabled List and stays the minimum 15 days. During this time — on days when Elarton and Bannister are pitching — Buck should be the Designated Hitter, considering his team-leading OPS. That would put him at 103 starts. While this is still lower than full-time catchers, it gives Buck plenty of value.

Buck should be owned in all two-catcher leagues, and should be considered in 12-team, single catcher mixed leagues. He should be owned in 14-team, single catcher mixed leagues and in all single catcher AL-only leagues. Bank on Buck for plenty of power and a decent Batting Average.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:00pm

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Travis Hafner: the First Baseman

Travis Hafner has now started 4 games at first base for the Cleveland Indians. In many Fantasy Baseball leagues, a player must start 5 games at a position before becoming eligible to play that position for a fantasy team. Travis Hafner is just 1 game away with Interleague play right around the corner. Hafner's bat is just too valuable to relegate to pinch-hitting duties when the Indians play in National League parks. As such, the Indians have been giving him some work at first base to prepare him to play several games there in the coming weeks. If Hafner's owner is asleep at the wheel, now is the time to buy on him. The Indians play at the Reds on Friday (against Homer Bailey), and Hafner should pick up his fifth start then, if not earlier. Either way, come Saturday morning, whoever owns Hafner will be able to slot him into their lineup in the spot marked '1B.' This gives Hafner's value a huge boost.

Had Hafner been first base eligible to start the year, there is a very good chance I would have taken him in nearly every league I had the opportunity. To start, Hafner takes a lot of walks. To clarify “a lot,” I mean that he had an 18% Walk rate in 2006 and has a 21% Walk in rate in 2007. It's so good that it has allowed Hafner to keep a .300 BA despite a not-so-inspiring 75% Contact rate. His career BABIP is .334.

His 2005 Line Drive rate was 20.2% and in 2006 it was 21.2%. Despite his increased Walk rate this year, though, his Line Drive rate has slipped to 18.5% and his BABIP to .316. No need to sound the alarms yet, but Hafner is also hitting just .272. I don't see any clear reasons to panic, and Hafner's Line Drive rate should raise in time, as should his BA. I don't see a good reason to bet against Hafner hitting close to, if not over, .300.

Hafner is also a beast in the power department. Last year, according to HitTracker, Hafner hit 24 Home Runs with True Distances of over 400 feet. His furthest went 450 true feet. This year, 5 of his 9 that HitTracker has data on went past 400 true feet, and he hasn't hit any under 367 true feet. Because of this, I expect his HR/FB rate to pick up a little bit as some of his shallower fly balls are converted to homers.

The most concerning thing about Hafner's power is his fluctuating Fly ball rate. It has been alternating each year of his career between the mid-to-high 30s and low 40s. 2004 it was 43%, 2005 it was 37%, and 2006 it was 40%. This year, it has fallen all the way to 33%. Accordingly, his AB/HR has fallen from 11 in 2006 to 19 in 2007. If this rate keeps up, Hafner will end up with just 27 HRs if he gets 525 ABs. I expect it to improve, however, for a number of reasons.

The first is that his 48.6% Ground ball rate is the worst of his career and is 7 percentage points above his career average. I doubt Hafner is suffering a deterioration of skills given his improved Walk rate, constant Contact rate, and relatively small drop in Line Drive rate. Therefore, his Ground ball rate should decline and his Fly ball and/or Line Drive rate should improve at some point this year. If his Fly ball rate could even get back up to 37% he would be in decent shape. Then, if some of his shallower fly balls begin to turn into HRs, he should even better off. I would be surprised if Hafner doesn't hit at least 40 Home Runs this year.

When you add Hafner's lineup situation into the equation, you get an excellent player. Hafner has batted third every game this year, with the likes of Grady Sizemore, Jason Michaels, and Casey Blake ahead of him and Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko, Trot Nixon, and Jhonny Peralta behind him. With 40 HRs and those hitters ahead of him, Hafner should easily reach 100 RBIs with 115 a good possibility. With his ability to take a walk and the power behind him, he should also get to 100 Runs without a problem.

That leaves Hafner's final line looking like this: .300/40/110/100. I had him projected a little higher preseason, but since there is some risk involved with Hafner (his Ground ball rate the main culprit), I think this is more likely. The only first basemen I'd probably take over Hafner at this point are Albert Pujols, David Ortiz, and Prince Fielder. If Hafner doesn't improve his HR rate and BA, guys like Ryan Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, and Gary Sheffield would pass him. If you can take on a little risk, though, play up the low Fly ball, Line Drives, and AB/HR rates to Hafner's owner and reap the rewards.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:34pm

WHAT MAKES A SUCCESSFUL FANTASY GM

By way of introduction, I run The Fantasy Baseball Generals blog, in which the writers try to illuminate the underlying core principles of fantasy baseball by considering it as a “game” (in the mathematical sense) or warlike conflict. The core principles are viewed through the prism of various disciplines such as game theory, military strategy, economics, and even the writings of Sun-Tzu. When I was asked to write a weekly column for THT’s Fantasy Focus I naturally jumped at the chance.

For my first weekly column I wanted to address what I believe is the most important goal of any Fantasy player. The goal happens to also be the answer to the question posed in the headline.

The answer is obvious to most: a successful GM is a “winner.” Or at least that’s how most fantasy players would answer. Yet, they are wrong. Surely, being a winner is a hallmark of the expert fantasy GM, but it is only a necessary criteria not a sufficient one. Winning requires luck. I have yet to meet the fantasy GM, expert or otherwise, who could properly judge the vagaries of chance. No one can win without a modicum of good fortune. So mere winning is not the answer.

Another popular answer is that “knowledge” makes an expert fantasy GM. Again, we only achieve half the battle. Knowledge is certainly a necessary condition; however mere knowledge will get you little but perhaps the show money (to borrow a horse racing term). An owner could know the batting average, by heart, of every player on the Marlins roster; this doesn’t make him an expert or a success. In fact, the true expert needn’t even know any of this information since it is readily accessible to all at the stroke of a computer key. Even Einstein, perhaps apocryphally, didn’t bother to memorize his phone number.

The answer is that to be a successful GM one must become an “expert,” and there are plenty of supposed experts out there. Just searching Google for “fantasy baseball blogs” I found hundreds. There are scores of podcasts and analyses from supposed experts. One should be cautious of taking advice from non-experts, and yet how can you tell whether one is a real expert? The criteria below must inform one’s assessment of expertise:

1. Knowledge. The expert knows things that others don't, and I don’t mean batting averages but analytical tools and strategies. The expert has knowledge on many matters relevant to the process at hand and is always gaining more knowledge. An example would be that an expert can provide a reasoned answer to many questions, such as "why is it a fallacy that hitters hit worse with two strikes," or "in fantasy, why should I not chase wins" or "who will emerge from the Phillies' bullpen with saves." They may come to a different conclusion than other experts but they will evince a thorough knowledge of the issue.

2. Strategy. A true expert will know and use strategies that non-experts don't even know exist. To borrow from the writings of David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth on poker (from whom this example comes,) an expert may use a game theory based bluffing system that non-experts don't even know exists. In fantasy baseball, an example would be knowing about the Low Investment Mound Aces strategy. Whether a particular strategy is good or bad to use in a given context, the expert knows them and can use them should the need arise.

3. Independence. A true expert will deviate from conventional wisdom and even his own typical strategy should the situation be favorable; he will not be tied down to any preconceived set of rules or the conventional wisdom, and will trust his or her judgment over all else. It may just be that he has a different opinion than everyone else, or it may be that it is for a specific tactical reason. An example: an owner that rarely spends significant money on pitchers in an auction league is willing to bid $30 on a pitcher this year (an example dear to my heart since this year was the first year in ten that I paid $30 for a pitcher; it was Jake Peavy). If you are bidding against that owner, and you have the knowledge of his bidding tendencies (and how can you be an expert if you don’t have this knowledge?) you would be well advised to bid $31.

4. Flexibility. A true expert can use many different strategies, can tailor his planning to given situations, and can take advantage of a situation as it presents itself through judgment and knowledge. The expert doesn't need to read specific advice from trusted websites or other sources of information in order to come to a conclusion, though they may be invaluable; he or she can make good decisions based on a thorough knowledge of fundamental theory. There are an infinite number of situations that can arise. One would be foolish to, for example, follow trusted dollar value projections to the letter regardless of their judgment, but many owners do just that.

5. The Thought Process. Last, and by far the most important, is the thought process. The expert considers many variables, and can sift through them in a logical fashion to come to a reasoned decision.

Here is an example of expertise in practice:

In a high stakes auction league that I am involved in, (in which each owner has one AL and one NL team) this year Tom Gorzelanny and Adam Loewen were auctioned for $12 each, and James Shields went for $9. In all three cases, two owners that I consider to be experts or close to it were involved in the bidding, and no other owners were seriously involved. In all three cases other owners not involved in the bidding were incredulous and making their disapproving comments and opinions known.

In Loewen's case, (which hasn't worked out so far--but I focus on process not results; more on that later) his poor superficial numbers hid what was an excellent pitcher. He struck out approximately 8 batters per 9 IP, and got two-thirds of his outs on ground balls and strikeouts. In Gorzelanny's case, he had superficially good numbers, had good minor league translations and had a FIP of 4.16, again showing that he was for real and not a fluke. Shields had surprisingly solid core skills; including 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.7 walks per nine. More importantly he was unlucky last year with a 33% hit rate, causing there to be a perceived discrepancy between what these two experts saw as his potential and what the others saw as a rookie with a 4.80 ERA. There is of course more to it than that, but we are discussing general theory here.

To be sure the book is out on all three, and the masses may eventually be right. But I doubt it. The two owners involved saw what others did not. Suffice it to say that in my opinion the two owners involved in these bidding wars could be considered experts, despite how these individual moves may work out.

Your goal: not just to win your league(s) but to gain knowledge, improve your judgment, consider more variables and to learn about the core principles of the game. When you do this you will be a “successful” GM; namely an expert. Expertise requires a confluence of factors that are all within your grasp, so go get them.

Posted by Patrick DiCaprio at 5:38pm

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Checking in on Our Favorite Minor League SPs

Throughout the season, I've talked about (or mentioned in passing) a few of my favorite minor league starting pitchers. With the season two months old, let's take a look at some of these guys and try and decipher how much value each should have this year. We've already seen Philip Hughes, Tim Lincecum, and Homer Bailey get the call, so we'll look at some of the remaining options.

Adam Miller - Cleveland Indians

About a week ago, Miller was diagnosed with a strained flexor tendon in his right middle finger. The recovery time is said to be at least 3 to 4 weeks. If we figure he'll pitch at least 2 more weeks in the minors before being recalled (and it's likely to be longer), we probably won't be seeing Miller until the middle-to-end of July at the earliest. Hopefully the Indians will realize by then that Miller could be their #2 SP down the stretch. His numbers have declined a little with the jump to AAA, and they should decline a little more in the majors. His high ground ball rate will keep him afloat and ensure he'll have some good value assuming his K/BB remains above 2.00 in the majors, which it probably will.
Minor League Stats
2006 AA Akron - 154 IP | 9.18 K/9 | 2.51 BB/9 | 55% GB
2007 AAA Buffalo - 42 IP | 8.36 K/9 | 3.00 BB/9 | 59.3% GB

Yovani Gallardo - Milwaukee Brewers

Gallardo has been nothing short of dominant, even with the jump to Triple A. His K rate has gone up; his BB rate has gone down. His ground ball isn't as good as we'd like, but if he can strike out 8 batters per game and walk a little over 3 in the majors, he should be a fine addition to any pitching staff. If you have first priority on your waiver wire, saving it for Gallardo might be a smart idea.
Minor League Stats
2005 A West Virginia - 117.7 IP | 7.95 K/9 | 3.90 BB/9 | 51.3% GB
2006 A+ Brevard County - 78 IP | 11.88 K/9 | 2.65 BB/9 | 57.3% GB
2006 AA Huntsville - 77.3 IP | 9.89 K/9 | 3.26 BB/9 | 42% GB
2007 AAA Nashville - 66.3 IP | 12.89 K/9 | 2.85 BB/9 | 42.4% GB

Clay Buchholz - Boston Red Sox

I haven't talked much about Buchholz before, but he has been fantastic thus far. He's only at Double A now, but the Red Sox will consider calling him up in the second half of the year. His numbers speak for themselves. I would assume he'll see a promotion to Triple A anytime now. If he does get the call to the big leagues, he seems like he would be a very good option. That should be at least a month of two away though, so we'll continue monitoring him.
Minor League Stats
2005 R Lowell - 41.3 IP | 9.80 K/9 | 1.96 BB/9 | 51.4% GB
2006 A Greenville - 102.7 IP | 10.26 K/9 | 2.54 BB/9 | 45.5% GB
2007 AA Portland - 57 IP | 12.63 K/9 | 2.05 BB/9 | 44.6% GB

Jason Windsor - Oakland A's

I talked about Windsor in the beginning of the year as an under-the-radar guy for deeper leagues. His 2006 numbers looked great across two levels (one of which was Triple A), but so far this year he has been terrible. His Strikeout, Walk, and Ground ball rates have all declined. At this rate, I don't see Windsor getting the call to majors this year. If he does, he doesn't figure to be very good unless he can figure out what is going wrong. We'll keep a close eye on his starts from here on out to see if anything changes.
Minor League Stats
2006 AA Midland - 33.3 IP | 9.45 K/9 | 2.70 BB/9 | 48.2% GB
2006 AAA Sacramento - 118 IP | 9.38 K/9 | 2.44 BB/9 | 46.1% GB
2007 AAA Sacramento - 54 IP | 6.83 K/9 | 4.17 BB/9 | 44.3% GB

I'll take a look at a few more minor league starters who could have an impact later this week or next week.

Posted by Derek Carty at 9:19pm

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Time for Lidge Again in Houston?

For those in need of saves, this may be your best chance all year to acquire a cheap, dominant closer. Come next week, there is a very good possibility Brad Lidge will be closing again in Houston. This morning, Astros' manager Phil Garner said, "I think [Lidge has] pitched well enough to go back to the closing role now, and my only hesitation is (the current bullpen configuration) seems to be working." This isn't the type of thing to say unless you are seriously contemplating a move and you're trying to prepare Dan Wheeler for it. If the move wasn't coming, this would most likely just anger Wheeler for no reason. Another possibility is that Garner is trying to inspire Wheeler after he's given up 6 runs in his past three appearances, but this seems somewhat unlikely given his statement that everything "seems to be working." Garner certainly still likes Wheeler, but I think he is beginning to realize that Lidge is his best reliever.

Even last year, when he had a 5.28 ERA, Lidge was still a great pitcher. He had a 12.48 K/9 and a 2.89 K/BB and was a victim of some bad luck. This year, his overall numbers indicate he isn't quite back at his 2004 and 2005 form, but he has posted a fantastic 11.93 K/9 and a 3.77 BB/9. Since April 28, though, Lidge has put up even better numbers: a 12.42 K/9 and a 2.14 BB/9. Now that looks more like the Brad Lidge of 2004 and 2005. In addition, his 46% Ground ball rate is quite good, so Lidge should be a fine pitcher the rest of the year.

In deep leagues Lidge should already be gone, but if he is available in yours, you could get yourself a Top 5 or 10 closer for nothing right now. If you have a guy like Alan Embree or Antonio Alfonseca who will be out of a job soon, and you have no one else to drop, cut one of these guys. Don't wait too long for Lidge. He's a big name, and once people figure out he'll be closing soon, they'll be all over him. Make sure you don't miss out. Grab him now.

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:49am

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Friday, June 01, 2007

Waiver Wire: American League

American League