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 Wednesday, June 27, 2007New Player Evaluation MethodAs I was going through the Hardball Times statistical database, I came across an interesting set of stats that I think we could have some use for. These stats include the number of batted balls a player hits (line drives, fly balls, ground balls, etc.) — which we've already been able to look at — and also how often each player turns each type of batted ball into a hit. First, I'll post the 2006 league average numbers to use as a guideline.
We see that Line Drives fall for hits at the highest rate. Next come the Fliners (a new-ish stat that counts those balls that are somewhere between a Fly ball and a Line Drive). Ground balls are third, followed by Outfield Fly balls. Infield Fly balls, or Pop-ups, come in a distant last and can relatively be ignored. This matches what we already know, except that Fliners have been added. They are second best — between Line Drives and Fly balls — as we would expect. Now, I'll explain what I have in mind for these numbers. Let's say we're looking at a player... Player A. Player A has been known as a very good hitter, but has just turned 33 and is having a down year thus far. He is making contact and walking at the same rate as usual, but his Batting Average and BABIP are lower than his normal standard. Before this new data, it would be reasonable to say that since his Contact and Walk rates are the same, his early season slump could be attributed to bad luck. Now, I believe we might have a way of delving further into Player A's numbers to see if it really is bad luck or a sign of declining skills. Let's say that Player A's Line Drives, Outfield Fly balls, and Ground balls are falling for hits at a similar rate to last year, but his batting average on Fliners is much lower than last year. Because we see that he is hitting the other three types of batted balls well, there is a good chance that his low Fliner hit rate is a simple matter of bad luck. We could then justify our previous statement that he is getting unlucky. But, if all of his batted ball hit rates are down, it would seem that he isn't hitting the ball as well as he did in the past and that he may or may not start hitting well again. Let's put this into practice for a few interesting hitters this year and see how the results turn out. Lance BerkmanNot one of the more dramatic cases, but Lance Berkman is a guy I own in a couple of leagues and who I've been asked about by several people, so I feel obligated to use this method to evaluate him for everyone.
Before looking at the new numbers, we see that Berkman's Contact rate (CR) is down a bit this year, but that his Walk rate is up a point. Nothing too drastic, even though the drop from 80% to 77% seems more noticeable than if he'd dropped from 77% to 74%. His June Contact rate is only 78%. After hitting .315 last year, he is at just .258 this year. His BABIP in 2006 was .322, and it is at .298 now. That's not a huge difference. His 25 AB/HR — down from 11 last year — is hurting his BA. That discussion is for another article, though. We're here to talk about his drop in BABIP and whether we think he is hitting the ball worse now than last year. His Line Drive and Outfield Fly contact rates are nearly identical to last year, but he's hitting more Ground balls and less Fliners now. This will hurt his BABIP a little, but will by no means kill it. While his rate of Fliners is down, more are falling for hits than did last year. His Line Drives are also falling at a better rate. His Ground balls are worse than last year but still above league average. His hit rate on Outfield Flies, though, is worse than last year and worse than league average. It should come up. Overall, I think Berkman's lowest BABIP since his rookie year is bound to increase, and because I also expect him to better his AB/HR rate, I think Berkman will be fine. He probably won't hit .315 again, but I could definitely see him hitting .290 as he picks up his HR pace. Buy low on him if you can. Ian KinslerA more extreme case than Berkman, let's see if we should expect an improvement from Ian Kinsler too.
Kinsler started the year sizzling hot, but has since immensely cooled off. His Contact rate is similar to last year, and his Walk rate has improved a good amount since then. If anything, we'd expect an increased BABIP. This hasn't happened as it has gone from .310 in 2006 to .240 in 2007. Why? He's taken a point off of his Fliner contact rate and added it to Line Drives: Good. His Infield Flies have remained constant: Perfectly fine. He's taken a few points off his Ground ball contact rate and added them to his Outfield Fly rate: Not bad. So far, nothing to substantiate his decrease in BABIP. His Line Drive hit rate is much lower than last year and substantially lower than league average. His Outfield Fly rate is also at an insanely low level... so low that there is little explanation other than bad luck. His Ground ball rate is also lower than last year, but still above league average. Could increase, but could just as easily be normal now. The only stat that is in Kinsler's favor is his Fliners, which he seems to be hitting better than last year. When we consider this and the completely abnormally low Line Drive and Outfield Fly hit rates, I think we have to conclude that Kinsler is getting unlucky. His Walk rate is up, meaning he is being more selective, and it is just not showing up in the surface numbers yet. I fully expect it to in the coming months. His early season power was somewhat lucky, but Kinsler is a good player and one that would be worth buying low right now. Mark TeahenA guy from the other end of the spectrum, Mark Teahen would appear to be playing over his head. Let's see if he really is.
All of Teahen's batted ball contact rates are very similar to last year. His Contact rate is a little worse and his Walk rate is little better, but his BABIP is at .371. This is up from .331 in 2006, when it may or not have been too high, anyway. At the beginning of the season, I expected a BABIP regression based on his less-than-super Walk rate and high Ground ball rate. Looking at these numbers, we see that I would have been right if Teahen weren't getting so lucky. His Line Drive and Fliner hit rates are down from last year and are closer to — though still higher than, as expected because of his BB rate — league average. But when we look at his Outfield Fly rate, it is incredibly high and has nowhere to go but down. His Ground ball rate is also ridiculously high, and seeing as he isn't Willie Mays on the base paths, I'd have to think that will come down too. When it does, Teahen's BABIP will probably drop lower than last year (as I had originally predicted) and settle somewhere above .300. Like Berkman, his HR/AB is down from last year (which we thought it would be looking at last year's HitTracker data), but his high BABIP is keeping his BA at .293. The BABIP will worsen, the HR/AB will improve a little (since it is lower than even I expected — 57.4 — and he's hitting the ball farther than last year), and the BA will drop. I'd sell Teahen if I got a good offer, but would consider keeping him since his power production is likely to improve. Concluding ThoughtsA few quick things I need to mention. This theory is as preliminary as can be. I haven't done any tests on it yet. Logically, though, I think it makes perfect sense. I hope you do too and will tell me in the comments section. I would like to include the 2004 and 2005 numbers, as well, but the data we have does not include Fliners for these years. That means if we include 2004 and 2005, we would only be able to look at Outfield Fly balls, Line Drives, and Ground balls. The problem that I see with this is the margin for error is much greater. If we are looking at balls in the air, without Fliners we only have Outfield Flies and Line Drives. If one is higher than usual and one is lower than usual, which one do we believe? With Fliners in the mix, it becomes much easier to tell. This is also something I'd like to have everyone's input on to see if you'd rather I just look at 2006 and 2007 or look at more years but — in my opinion — inferior data. There's also the option to further divide Fliners into Outfield Fliners and Infield Fliners. I'm not sure if we'd then be looking at too small of a sample size, but it's something I'm considering and will look into. I feel like I'm forgetting something else, so if I think of it I'll make another post. I hope you guys find this stuff as interesting as I do. I see some potential in these numbers, and hopefully we'll be able to come up with a nice little system for them. Again, any comments on this would be nice. Posted by Derek Carty at 12:16pm (1) Comments Thursday, June 28, 2007The “Luck” StatsA pitcher’s performance in any given season is something like 40% skill and 60% luck. That statement may sound extreme, but it’s the truth. So you can imagine just how much luck plays into a pitcher’s performance when we’re only halfway through the year, and just how much that might impact your fantasy team. Luckily, The Hardball Times tracks a few very important “luck” statistics for pitchers, and we’re going to take a look today at which hurlers may be due for a downturn in their performance. The first of these numbers is how many home runs a pitcher allows per outfield fly ball. My research in The Hardball Times Annual 2007 indicates that pitchers do have some control over HR/F, but not much. Most end up tightly clustered around an average of about 11%. This early in the season, however, those numbers vary quite a bit. Let’s look at the five pitchers with the lowest HR/F in the major leagues: Name HR/F Jake Peavy 1.2% Brad Penny 2.4% Chris Young 3.0% Kelvim Escobar 4.9% Tim Hudson 5.5% You can tell that these numbers are unsustainable. PETCO Field does prevent fly balls from becoming home runs at a higher than average rate, but certainly it is not so extreme as to give hope that Peavy and Young will continue to avoid the gopher ball as they have. Because home runs are so damaging, these are all guys who should expect to see large bumps in their ERAs (except, perhaps, for Hudson). If you can convince another owner that they will continue to pitch as well as they have, I suggest you sell now. Another “luck” stat for pitchers is line drive rate. My article in the THT Annual found no year-to-year correlation in line drive percentage from one year to the next, which means that all pitchers allow around the same number of liners. What I did find, however, was that line drives were the worst type of batted ball to allow, as they drop for hits three-quarters of the time. Who can we expect to allow a larger number of hits the rest of the way? Let’s have a look at the pitchers who have allowed the fewest number of line drives per batted ball: Name LD% Paul Maholm 13.3% Chad Durbin 13.9% Joe Kennedy 14.2% Fausto Carmona 14.2% Daniel Cabrera 14.2% In case you were thinking that my findings couldn’t be right, and that better pitchers generally allow fewer line drives, this list of leaders should show you that isn’t really the case. Maholm, Carmona, and Kennedy have actually had some bad luck in other places to make up for the good karma they have received with line drives. But Durbin and Kennedy are due for a steep fall back to earth, and you should let go of them before that happens. The third statistic we’re going to look at is left-on-base percentage. Unlike LD%, LOB% is far from being all about luck. Better pitchers generally leave a higher proportion of hitters on-base because it is harder to string together a series of hits or walks against them. (A couple good articles on LOB% can be found here and here.) Nonetheless, LOB% is also a luck-intensive statistic, and it can pinpoint pitchers whose ERAs are about to soar. Let’s look at the leaders. Name LOB% John Maine 83.8% Rich Hill 83.3% Johan Santana 82.1% Dan Haren 81.8% Brad Penny 81.2% Brad Penny makes a second appearance in this article, which means that if you own him, you need to be selling now. Seriously, don’t even read this to the end, just go. As you can see, we do have a pretty good list of pitchers here, but all of them are due to stumble somewhat, Maine and Haren (and Penny) especially. Evaluating pitchers is a complex art, and sometimes all the luck that plays into their numbers makes it darn near impossible. But by looking more closely at their individual statistics, we can get an idea of which pitchers are playing in over their heads. All of these statistics, and more, can be found in The Hardball Times statistics section. Posted by David Gassko at 4:14pm (0) Comments Reading MaterialSince David Gassko posted earlier today, I won't bother to put up a long post. I will, however, point you guys to a couple of good reads. The first is, of course, David Gassko's post that appears below this. I don't talk about Line Drive percentage much for pitchers, but it is helpful in evaluating them. It's something I've been meaning to talk about more but seem to forget. I'll be talking about it more for pitcher analysis. Also, this post gave me an idea. Perhaps, once a week, I'll post the league leaders (on both ends of the spectrum) for various "luck" statistics to help you gauge which guys make good Buy Low and Sell High targets. This would also be accompanied by a normal post for whatever day I choose. The next two aren't fantasy related, but they are enjoyable nonetheless. Over on the THT home page, Jacob Jackson's article on Paul DePodesta is quite interesting. I always believed DePodesta was wronged by the Dodgers, and it's nice to see an article like this. As a Mets fan, I have to support Omar Minaya, but there have been times I've questioned his judgment just a bit as he seems more like a "scout" than a "stat guy." If he trades for a guy like Mark Buehrle or Dontrelle Willis, I will lose a lot of faith in him. Whatever he does, I don't think it's even a remote possibility for the Mets to fire Minaya and bring in DePodesta, although I wouldn't consider it a bad move. Since it's not going to happen, though, I won't waste any more time thinking about it. As a Mets fan, the longer DePodesta is out of the game, the better. Hopefully, when he does get a job, it will be with an American League club. This last article had me in stitches this afternoon as I read it. It's a bit long, but ohhhhhh is it worth it. It's over at Fire Joe Morgan and it's about— guess who—Joe Morgan. The article I'm talking about is the first one on the page, dated Tuesday, June 26, 2007. I'm very rarely one to knock somebody else, but some of the Morgan quotes are just absurd. I'm just going to leave it at that. You'll see what I mean. Anyway, I'll be back tomorrow with the Waiver Wire. Posted by Derek Carty at 9:03pm (0) Comments Friday, June 29, 2007Waiver Wire: American LeagueComing a little late, but here's the AL half of the Waiver Wire for this week. American LeagueMatt Garza | MIN | SP - Garza has been recalled by the Twins and is expected to start on July 6th. He might have a chance to claim a roster spot all for himself. His Triple A numbers looked much better last year, although it was in a small sample size. He's pitched 84.2 innings so far, and has a 9.46 K/9 and a 3.30 BB/9 with a 42.6% Ground ball rate. The control is worse than last year — across AA and AAA — and it will probably only get worse in the majors. Garza should be capable of striking out 7 batters per game in the majors, but he might walk 4. That would put his K/BB under 2.00, and AL pitchers are best off with a K/BB over 3.00. His Ground ball rate isn't good enough to make up for it, so expect modest results from Garza. Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Jason Giambi | NYY | 1B - Well, Giambi is finally out of his walking boot, but his foot is still hurting a bit. The good news is that he probably won't be out for the year. He might return in a month or so, making Giambi a guy to keep a close watch on. I drafted Giambi in a couple leagues and mentioned him as a Buy Low candidate a while back, so I do like him when healthy. Great walk rate, good power, excellent lineup. Still might be a little early to stash him away, but in certain leagues this is the appropriate move. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues when healthy. Shea Hillenbrand | LAA | 1B/3B - Rumors are circulating that the Yankees are interested in Hillenbrand. This would boost his value a lot, at least until Giambi comes back, assuming he's healthy enough at that point to play first. He never walks, but he has decent power and good Contact and Line Drive rates. Hitting in the Yankees lineup would help him immensely. Recommendation - Should be watched in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be watched in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Andrew Miller | DET | SP - 3 Wins, 2.70 ERA. I'm still not convinced. His 1.36 K/BB is terrible, and his 87% LOB% is incredibly lucky. He doesn't even strike a lot of guys out. I'd avoid him in most leagues. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. John Thomson | KC | SP - There's talk Elarton won't get his job back when he returns from the Disabled List next week, and while Thomson is nothing special, he is an upgrade. His K/9 should be around 5.00 and his BB/9 over 3.00. His 45% Ground ball rate won't be bad, but Thomson isn't terribly much better than the guy he is replacing. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 14-team AL-only leagues. Justin Duchscherer | OAK | RP - Could rejoin the A's before the All-Star break, and if they think he's throwing well he'll start the second half of the season as Oakland's closer. If he can post numbers like last year, he'll be a great addition to any fantasy team. Recommendation - Should be owned in all but shallow leagues for now and owned in all leagues once he claims the closer's role. Jonny Gomes | TB | OF - Still owned in just 6.2% of ESPN leagues, I'm going to leave him on the list for another week. Be sure to check out my "Cust Inefficiency" article if you haven't already. I wish they'd bat him higher up, but he is getting regular playing time now. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Jack Cust | OAK | OF - The inspiration for the "Cust Inefficiency" article, Cust's ownership is at just 2% in ESPN leagues. A good 3 category guy, Cust needs to be owned in more leagues. Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Akinori Otsuka | TEX | RP - Will remain here until Gagne is traded or the trade deadline passes. I suspect the former will cause his removal. There haven't been many save opportunities to go around in Texas, but Otsuka should be the one getting them sometime in July. Stash him away if you can. Recommendation - Should be owned in all but shallow leagues for now and owned in all leagues if he claims the closer's role. Kenny Rogers | DET | SP - Only two starts in and his Ks and BBs are the best they've been since 1995. He will regress and lose a lot of value. His K/BB will drop below 2.00 as his K/9 drops below 5.00. He gets a good number of ground balls, but Rogers still isn't much better of an option than Andrew Miller. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Sorry, guys, I'm fading tonight after a hectic day. I'll post the National League tomorrow afternoon. There should be a lot more interesting guys in the NL. Also, look for a post about Carlos Pena. Posted by Derek Carty at 7:15pm (0) Comments Saturday, June 30, 2007Waiver Wire: National LeagueHere's the National League Waiver Wire for the week. National LeagueMilton Bradley | SD | OF - 11% Walk rate, 80% Contact rate, and 20% Line Drive rates are good, and they could improve a bit with the move to the National League. Bradley might be good for a .280-.285 Batting Average. Petco won't help his power, but he might be able to hit 8 HRs the rest of the year if he plays full-time. He should get the opportunity to play full-time for Padres, taking playing time away from Jose Cruz Jr. and Terrmel Sledge, especially once Brian Giles is back from injury. Where he hits in the lineup will shed some light on his RBI and Run prospects. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues. Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Mentioned a couple weeks ago, but with Freel possibly coming off the DL on Monday, I had to put him here again. While he has never hit .300, he has all the skills to: 85% Contact rate, 10% Walk rate, 20+% Line Drive rate. If he could ever play a full season, he would steal 50 bases. He should also score well over 100 Runs batting leadoff for the Reds, and he should hit 8 or so Home Runs. Recommendation - Should be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues. Bob Howry | CHC | CL - Manning the closer's role for the next couple weeks until Ryan Dempster gets back from the DL, Howry needs to be owned in all leagues. His peripherals aren't great, but they are good enough to get you some saves over the next couple weeks: 7.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 35% GB. Watch out though, as Carlos Marmol is breathing down his neck. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Carlos Marmol | CHC | RP - Fantastic 12.27 K/9 and 3.75 K/BB, but his 25% Ground ball rate isn't very good. He is a much better option than Howry — and Dempster for that matter — and would make a fine closer. Might be a good idea to stash him, now. Recommendation - Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Dave Bush | MIL | SP - Well, it looks like Gallardo will be moving to the Bullpen, keeping the jobs of Bush and Claudio Vargas safe... for now. Bush is striking out 6.5 batters per game now and walking less than 2. His 3.40 K/BB and 45% Ground ball rate are good, but his 64.5% LOB% and .329 BABIP seem to be a bit unlucky. Bush is a guy like Javier Vazquez that some consider to be worse than their peripherals indicate, but he did put up a 71% LOB% in 2004 and 2005. I think he should be able to turn it around a bit. Recommendation - Peripherals indicate he should be owned in all leagues, but be just a little wary. Yovani Gallardo | MIL | SP/RP - Despite three solid starts, Gallardo will most likely be moving to the bullpen. He'll still have value in NL-only leagues, and if he moves back to the rotation this year should have value in most mixed leagues. For now, though, his value is limited. Unless the Brewers move Vargas or Bush to the bullpen. Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. J.A. Happ | PHI | SP - The newest Philly minor league pitcher to get a crack in the majors, I don't expect Happ to rise to the challenge. He pitched decently in Double A last year with a (9.72 K/9 | 3.48 BB/9 | 40% GB) line in 75 IP, but this year he's been much worse (10.05 K/9 | 5.10 BB/9 | 35% GB) in 60 Triple A innings. The Strikeouts are nice and should help in the majors, but his control has been horrible and he doesn't have a good Ground ball rate to cushion the damage. The high Ks and a good offense makes his use in mixed leagues not quite ridiculous. Could have a shot to keep the job with Jon Lieber injured, but I don't think he'll be able to pull it off. Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues. Jason Bergmann | WAS | SP - Getting lucky across the board (.207 BABIP | 76% LOB | 6.7% HR/FB | 12.8% LD), but his peripherals are decent enough for the National League. He's striking out 7.81 batters per 9 innings and walking 3.57, putting his K/BB at a respectable 2.19. His 34% Ground ball rate doesn't help anything, but Bergmann is a decent play in certain leagues. Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Justin Germano | SD | SP - A guy in the mold of Chien-Ming Wang and Fausto Carmona, but not quite that extreme. His 4.67 K/9 is bad, but he doesn't walk many and his 3.50 K/BB is very good. His 51% Ground ball rate is also very good. Had nearly identical numbers in Triple A for the Reds last year, so he might see a little regression. The low Ks hurt his value and make him ownable in deep mixed leagues only on teams with several high K guys and no better options available. Recommendation - Should be owned only in very deep mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues. Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Contact rate between 75% and 80% isn't great, but he does walk nearly 10% of the time and hits Line Drives 20% of the time. He could hit .280. He also has good power. He hit 12 of 20 Home Runs past 400 true feet last year, according to HitTracker, and should easily hit a dozen HRs the rest of 2007. The Marlins lineup gives him some good RBI and Run opportunities while batting 4th. Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Troy Tulowitzki | COL | SS - Has hit 4 of 7 HRs HitTracker has data on past 400 true feet, and the furthest went 471 true feet. Tulowitzki could hit 20+ HRs this year. He's walking 9% of the time and hitting LDs 22% of the time, but his 77% Contact rate is only alright. A .280 average to go with 20 HRs is pretty good for a shortstop, and with plenty of good hitters ahead of him he should put up a decent RBI total. Recommendation - Should be strongly considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues. James Loney | LAD | 1B - Talked about a few days ago. 10 HRs with a .280 average has value in some leagues, but there are lots of better first base options out there. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues. Mike Fontenot | CHC | 2B/SS - 87% Contact rate is good, but Fontenot only has a 5% Walk rate and 17% Line Drive rate. If we look at the breakdown with Fliners included, though, he has a 15.25% Line Drive and 15.25% Fliner rate. The LDs are just a smidge under league average and the Fliners are well above league average, making his great contact hitting so far a little bit more believable. He is still in for a huge regression, but he might be able to hit .265-.270 from here on out. He's hit both HRs HitTracker has data on past 400 feet, but he didn't show great power in the minors. More than 10 HRs would be a big surprise. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues. Kelly Johnson | ATL | 2B/OF - While he's been losing a little playing time, his peripherals are still pretty good. I expect a .280+ BA and 17-18 or so HRs. He could also end up with 12-15 steals. If he can keep the leadoff spot, he should also score 100 runs easily. Let's just hope the Braves realize that Johnson is this good. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Yunel Escobar | ATL | 2B/SS/3B - No power, but Escobar is a decent contact hitter. He has a good contact rate (should end up in the mid-to-high 80s), but his .333 BABIP is too high right now. He's only walking 5% of the time and hitting 17% Line Drives. In Double A last year, though, he walked 12% of the time, so this number has room to improve. He's playing over his head, and shouldn't hit more than .275. Even if he were to gain an everyday role, which he shouldn't, there would still be lots of better options available. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. 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