THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Derek Carty at 9:50am

Fuentes Temporarily Removed

Last night, Rockies manager Clint Hurdle told Brian Fuentes that he would temporarily be replaced as Colorado's closer after blowing four consecutive saves. Don't go pressing the panic button yet; Fuentes should be back collecting saves within a week or two. Until then, I'd have to think Manny Corpas will be pitching the ninth inning, although Jorge Julio and — though somewhat less likely — LaTroy Hawkins and Jeremy Affeldt could step in as well.

Corpas has pretty good peripherals: 6.53 K/9 | 3.15 BB/9 | 2.07 K/BB | 60% GB. We'd like to see the K/BB higher, but the ground ball rate makes up for it a bit. I suspect Fuentes will resume closing after the All-Star break, but until then Corpas should be owned in all leagues. He could pick up a couple of saves between now and then.

Julio has only given up 3 runs in 15.1 innings for Colorado, so Hurdle could elect to go with him. His peripherals have been poor, though, as he's only been striking out 7 batters per 9 and is walking over 4. If he closes, he might be able to pick up saves and would be worth owning, but be aware that he could just as easily blow a few saves.

I'd pick up Corpas and hope Hurdle realizes that he is the better pitcher. If not, there will probably only be a replacement closer for a week or so, anyway, so it's not a huge deal. At least you won't have to worry about Julio imploding while on your team. Another quick note is that the Rockies could look to trade Fuentes as the trade deadline nears. If traded, I'd again think Corpas is the favorite to close the remainder of the year. Watch the situation.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:08pm

Monday, July 02, 2007

Mid-Year Look-In At Carlos Zambrano

During Spring Training, I received a number of emails from readers asking why I was so down on Carlos Zambrano. I proceeded to write a full explanation of my opinion of Zambrano. While most fantasy "cheat sheets" had Zambrano in the top 5-7 for starting pitchers, I said that he didn't have the numbers to back up that kind of ranking. Up until a couple weeks ago, Zambrano was proving me correct. Since June 6 (one start removed from a 6 ER outing), though, Zambrano has 4 wins and a 1.43 ERA.

In April, I said that Zambrano had the potential to become an excellent starting pitcher, but that he needed to make some changes. He had good strikeout and ground ball rates, but he was walking far too many batters to be able to maintain a high level of success.

Until his start on June 6, Zambrano was walking 4.15 batters per game: the second worst mark in his career as a starter (2006 was worse). This year, though, it was finally showing in his surface numbers. To make matters worse, Zambrano was only striking out 6 batters per game. I have to admit, I poked a little fun at most of the guys who took him in my leagues.

Since then, Zambrano has put up much better numbers. His strikeout rate is through the roof: 10.27 K/9. It's not much of a surprise that he started striking out more batters; the real shocker has come in his much improved walk rate. In his last five starts, Zambrano has a 3.10 BB/9. If he pairs that with his normal K rate of around 8.00, his K/BB would be 2.58. That would not only be the highest of his career, but would most likely propel him into the top 10-12 starters in baseball.

Is the walk rate for real, though? I am a bit skeptical. Let's look at the breakdown of his five starts that people have been applauding him for.
June 6 | 6.2 IP | 3 BB
June 11 | 8 IP | 1 BB
June 16 | 9 IP | 5 BB
June 22 | 8 IP | 1 BB
June 27 | 6 IP | 3 BB

His 1 walk starts were great, but if we only look at the other 3, his BB/9 would be 4.56. So are we really trying to say that Zambrano has turned it around based on two starts in which he showed good control? Last year, in the worst control showing of his career, he still managed 3 games with just 1 walk (7 IP each) and 5 games with just 2 walks (shortest was 7 IP). Call me a cynic, but two games in June doesn't quite let Zambrano off the hook.

While it is certainly possible Zambrano is beginning to learn better control, I just don't see it. First, because we're looking at a 5 game sample, and second, because 3 of them weren't even very good.

His season line looks like this right now: 7.60 K/9 | 3.80 BB/9 | 45.5% GB. His Ks will probably go over 8.00 and his BBs might get closer to 3.50, but I honestly don't see him doing much better than that. If someone in your league thinks Zambrano has "found his old stuff" or is "the Zambrano of Old again," deal him. If you don't own him—and hopefully you don't unless you bought really low on him in May—don't try to get him. There are much better options available.

Posted by Derek Carty at 7:43pm

Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Trading Lemons and Cherries

Have you ever thought "why is it every time I trade for a guy he ends up as the second coming of Neifi Perez (or maybe Ray Oyler for you older guys)?" There may be a good reason for this, and it isn't that those long hours searching MrSkin.com for scenes of Scarlett Johannsen are now coming home to roost; it is more likely that there are informational factors involved.

The 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics was, surprisingly, not awarded to Barbra Streisand for her trenchant observations on American tax policy, but to George Akerlof, A. Michael Spence and Jospeh Stiglitz, who had the following idea: suppose in a population of cars, some will be defective lemons and some will be reliable cherries. The owner of the car knows, from repair bills, which is which, however the buyer does not. This disparity in information results in the market having many more lemons than cherries. Why? Because anyone with a lemon will try to sell it but the owner of a reliable cherry will have little incentive to sell. This principle has been examined in the major league baseball trading context, by Phil Birnbaum of the SABR Statistical Analysis Committee in SABR's Baseball Research Journal #34, with the quite illuminating result that indeed there appear to be many more baseball lemons than cherries on the trading market.

Does this principle apply to the fantasy baseball trading market? In "real" baseball the assumption would be that the team has inside information, namely the players "repair bills," that others do not. In fantasy most players don't have this information, though the expert player has it or knows how to obtain it; there are a few such sources, including the columns here at The Hardball Times. Fantasy players all have access to some powerful information of their own to use, on the injury front and on a more involved analysis of a players statistics.

With the proliferation of information on baseball sites and with a proper understanding of statistics, this inside information is fully within any owner's grasp, and the disparity of information can be fully exploited by either the trader or the tradee. For fantasy purposes, a "lemon" is a player whose perceived value is much higher than his actual value. This can be because of injury, but it can also be because of the owner's knowledge of a player compared to other owners.

On the injury front, in one fantasy league I owned Bartolo Colon and traded him for a second round draft pick in the offseason, in a trade that I touched upon last week. The league is AL only, and each year there is a draft of all available free agents and minor leaguers that have played in AA. The key to the league is that minor leaguers cannot be picked up during the year, and must play at least one game at AA to be drafted in the following year's draft.

The parameters of the league, much like the terrain in a battlefield, guide the owner to a winning strategy: top prospects must be identified and much preferred in the drafts, even over average everyday major leaguers. Most top prospects moving up to AA during the year are available for draft. The league allows players to be kept for as long as you are so inclined, so these picks are tremendously valuable. In fact, what we have seen is that teams who draft minor leaguers well and eschew opportunities to pick pedestrian major league players have finished in the money for a decade in a row. As some examples, we have drafted Jason Giambi, Derek Jeter and Albert Pujols while in the minors.

A review of Colon's injury reports indicated that his condition was chronic, and since he opted for rehab over surgery it was not likely to result in a good outcome. So, we traded Colon virtually immediately; if this information was correct then once the season started he might start out OK but could rapidly deteriorate. Who needs that risk?? Had the opposing owner delved more deeply or had more information he probably wouldn't have made the trade. Note that Colon's performance is virtually irrelevant; even at Colon's full value a second round pick in this league is probably more valuable than what can be expected of Colon this year.

What are the key points for the Fantasy GM?? Here are two salient ideas:

1. You must be able to figure out when you have a lemon. This requires not just the information that everyone knows; you must dig deeper and seek out true expert opinions (just read some of the stuff Derek is writing here on the blog and you will know what I mean). It isn't just about injuries; an examination of a player's hit rate, for example may inevitably lead to the conclusion that he is due for a big fall, or a pitcher may have been very lucky with stranded runners. These players are lemons. As indicated in a prior column, I considered Stephen Drew to be a lemon.

2. You must know your opponent. This is a key principle of all games, and fantasy baseball is no different. In any trade you need to determine what your opponent's motivation is, and if they are an expert or at least very knowledgable, you need to be more discerning. An owner who does not, for example, know about the various expected ERA or Batting Average metrics such as BABIP, or hit rates and strand rates for pitchers, is probably not trading a lemon; the owner who does is much more dangerous. The owner getting Colon in the above example most likely didn't have enough information, or if he did he chose to ignore it. This cuts both ways, not just when you are the trader. Or perhaps he outwitted me, and knew Colon would be pitching and pitching fairly well!!

Another owner in my high stakes league was recently shopping Chipper Jones and Eric Byrnes to me (and others). Since the opposing owner is sharp and knowledgeable, I assumed that he was trying to sell high and expected a drop off, and closely looked at Eric Byrnes. Byrnes has a current 35% hit rate, and clearly should not maintain that rate, given his career batting averages. This owner likely knew that information. Likewise, Chipper also had a 35% hit rate. In a trade that I discussed on my blog, he posted a trade for Byrnes and Chipper that netted him Ian Snell and Carlos Delgado with Andy LaRoche throw in for good measure. This is a prime example of trading lemons for cherries.

I returned the favor and countered this competitor's trade by doing a similar maneuver; trading Matt Morris (and his unsustainable ERA south of 3.00 at the time) and Randy Winn (he of a 36% hit rate) for Rafael Furcal and Mike Wuertz. Now I just have to hope that Furcal reverts to form, and one could easily argue that Furcal is a lemon right now. So perhaps I should develop a taste for lemonade.

Posted by Patrick DiCaprio at 7:54am

Luck leaders

Since Tuesday is Patrick's day to post, I thought it might also be a good day to start posting a weekly column that looks at the luckiest and unluckiest starting pitchers, that way you get a post about strategy and one that deals almost entirely with numbers. David Gassko posted last week on this topic, and I thought it would be a good idea to make this a weekly thing. We'll see how it goes.

Left on Base Percentage

Of the four stats we'll look at, LOB% — or Strand rate — has the least amount of luck involved. Good pitchers can have better than average LOB%, but too far one way or the other is a sign that luck is at play.

We'll look at all qualified pitchers with LOB% lower than 67% for the Unluckiest pitchers.

Unluckiest

Name		LOB% 
Kip Wells	57.5%
Jose Contreras	61.2%
David Bush	62.7%
Bronson Arroyo	65.1%
Roy Halladay	65.4%
Matt Belisle	65.7%
Zach Duke	65.8%
Aaron Cook	66.9%

We'll look at all qualified pitchers with LOB% higher than 78% for the Luckiest pitchers.

Luckiest

Name		LOB% 
Johan Santana	83.3%
John Maine	82.5%
Brad Penny	81.5%
Chuck James	81.5%
Rich Hill	80.6%
Tom Gorzelanny	79.4%
Dan Haren	79.1%
Jeremy Guthrie	79.0%
Roy Oswalt	79.0%
Jake Peavy	78.9%
John Smoltz	78.7%
Ian Snell	78.6%
Cole Hamels	78.3%
John Danks	78.3%
Ben Sheets	78.2%
Jeff Francis	78.1%

Batting Average on Balls in Play

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), like LOB%, isn't completely luck influenced. BABIP can stray a bit from the mean, but again, too far and luck is probably the reason.

We'll look at all qualified pitchers with BABIP higher than .330 for the Unluckiest pitchers.

Unluckiest

Name			BABIP 
Zach Duke		.363
Paul Byrd		.353
Doug Davis		.348
Boof Bonser		.345
Scott Kazmir		.342
Randy Wolf		.338
Scott Olsen		.334
Miguel Batista		.333
David Bush		.333
Curt Schilling		.332
Jorge de la Rosa	.331
Bronson Arroyo		.330

We'll look at all qualified pitchers with BABIP lower than .270 for the Luckiest pitchers.

Luckiest

Name			BABIP 
Jeremy Guthrie		.209
Dan Haren		.243
Rich Hill		.247
Jason Marquis		.248
John Maine		.253
Oliver Perez		.254
Jon Garland		.258
Jason Hirsh		.263
Matt Cain		.264
Justin Verlander	.264
Chris Young		.265
Tim Wakefield		.266
Steve Trachsel		.267
Ted Lilly		.268
Mark Buehrle		.268

Line Drive Rate

Pitchers tend to have very little control over their Line Drive rates. Ground ball pitchers and extreme fly ball pitchers can limit them a little, but they are much more luck-influenced than LOB% or BABIP.

We'll look at all qualified pitchers with LD% higher than 22% for the Unluckiest pitchers.

Unluckiest

Name			LD% 
Kyle Lohse		23.7%
Jon Garland		23.1%
Scott Olsen		22.9%
David Bush		22.7%
Braden Looper		22.4%
Livan Hernandez		22.3%
Tim Wakefield		22.1%

We'll look at all qualified pitchers with LD% lower than 16% for the Luckiest pitchers.

Luckiest

Name			LD% 
Paul Maholm		13.5%
Fausto Carmona		13.9%
Joe Kennedy		13.9%
Daniel Cabrera		14.2%
Josh Beckett		14.8%
James Shields		15.0%
A.J. Burnett		15.0%
Roy Oswalt		15.2%
Mark Buehrle		15.4%
Dan Haren		15.4%
Ian Snell		15.5%
Jeremy Bonderman	15.6%
Jeremy Guthrie		15.6%
Kelvim Escobar		15.6%
Chris Sampson		15.7%
Adam Wainwright		15.7%

Home Run per Fly ball Rate

Pitchers don't have too much power over how many of their fly balls turn into home runs. HR/FB measures how often this happens. Those with low rate should start to give up more HRs and should see their ERAs increase accordingly, and visa-versa.

We'll look at all qualified pitchers with HR/FB higher than 13% for the Unluckiest pitchers.

Unluckiest

Name			HR/FB 
A.J. Burnett		18.8%
Mike Maroth		15.7%
Cole Hamels		14.7%
Paul Maholm		14.3%
Rich Hill		13.9%
Erik Bedard		13.2%
James Shields		13.2%
Kip Wells		13.2%
Ervin Santana		13.0%
Carlos Zambrano		13.0%
Fausto Carmona		13.0%
Dontrelle Willis	13.0%

We'll look at all qualified pitchers with HR/FB lower than 7% for the Luckiest pitchers.

Luckiest

Name			HR/FB 
Jake Peavy		1.9%
Brad Penny		2.1%
Chris Young		2.3%
Matt Morris		5.0%
Matt Cain		5.1%
Tim Hudson		5.2%
Chad Gaudin		5.4%
Jarrod Washburn		5.4%
Kelvim Escobar		5.5%
Jose Contreras		5.6%
Jon Garland		5.6%
Tom Gorzelanny		5.6%
Noah Lowry		5.7%
Bronson Arroyo		5.8%
Carlos Silva		5.9%
Greg Maddux		5.9%
Josh Beckett		6.1%
Ian Snell		6.5%
Dan Haren		6.8%
Aaron Harang		6.8%

Who to Trade

I'll go over a few guys quickly from these lists that would make good Sell High candidates.

Dan Haren appears on all four lists. He is a good pitcher, but not nearly as good as his surface stats indicates. His strikeout rate is above average and his walk rate is very good, but he is not an elite pitcher. If you can trade him for one, do it.

I've talked about Chris Young a few times before, but he is on two of these lists and barely missed the cut on the other two. He gets Ks and keeps his walks at a decent rate, but he gives up lots of fly balls. His HR/FB adjustment will be especially painful for him.

Rich Hill was talked about a few weeks ago, so I won't bother again. Similar to Young but with less BBs and more GBs. Trade him.

Some say Brad Penny is a better first half pitcher than second. Not true. He's getting lucky in several categories, not pitching better. Don't wait around for his fall.

Tim Hudson's getting a little lucky. Trade him to an owner with visions of the "A's Tim Hudson."

While guys like Johan Santana and Jake Peavy are getting lucky in some categories, their peripherals are so good that trading them makes little sense. Just hang onto them. Peavy won't continue to post a 2.09 ERA, but what he and Santana put up from here on out should still be very good and most likely better than whatever you would get for them in a trade.

Who to Target

Here are the Buy Low candidates based on these numbers.

Dave Bush is on three lists and probably on your Waiver Wire. His peripherals are good, although his surface numbers will need to show up to hold off Yovani Gallardo, who is lurking in the Milwaukee bullpen.

Boof Bonser is another guy who might be on your Waiver Wire. He strikes a lot of guys out and is better than his 4.76 ERA indicates.

Cole Hamels is on one of each list, but his 4.00 K/BB is amazing. Probably a Top 10 SP.

Zach Duke is on two lists, but his peripherals aren't that good. Only look at him in very deep leagues as he won't finish with a 6.00 ERA.

Bronson Arroyo. Getting a bit unlucky, but his peripherals aren't great. Only target in deep mixed and NL-only leagues.

Conclusion

Feel free to post any feedback. This could become a weekly feature, although I'm not sure if the numbers will change enough to warrant it. We'll see. Also, if I can get my database in order this week, I'll probably post a player's K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and GB% in the lists for easy reference.

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:59am

Thursday, July 05, 2007

Random notes

While the All-Star break is fast approaching, it's not break time yet. I'll look at some news from around the league and how it will impact fantasy baseball in the second half.

As those of you who've been reading me since April know, I am a pretty big fan of Philip Hughes—all Mets allegiances aside. After two major league starts, Hughes was placed on the disabled list and has been MIA since then. Hughes will be making his first rehab start on Monday and could rejoin the Yankees during the first week of August. Time to put Hughes back on your radar, folks. If you have an empty DL slot, it might be worth stashing him now. He should be an above-average fantasy starter while he's healthy.

Bill Hall left today's game with an apparent high ankle sprain. Hall could be out up to two months, which would devastate his fantasy value. It would, however, help a few other Brewers. Corey Hart is the one I'm most excited about. If he can log a few games in center field, he will become eligible there in certain leagues. His already solid value would get a boost from being eligible at all three outfield positions. If Hart does play some center, Kevin Mench should expect to see more at-bats. Tony Gwynn Jr. could get called back up and might have a little value in NL-only leagues, and Gabe Gross might pick up a few more ABs as well.

Nick Johnson, at one time expected to return in the middle of June, still does not have an expected return date. Had he been healthy to start the year, he would been one of my favorite sleepers. It's a shame to see him still experiencing pain in his leg, and he'll be seeing a specialist this week for it. Keep watching him, but it'll be tough for him to have much value this year unless he gets some good news fast.

Another former Yankee, Juan Rivera, is also on the mend. He could be back by the end of the month and should be a decent fantasy option for the final two months of the season. I'll examine him more closely as his return approaches.

Al Reyes was placed on the DL by the Devil Rays. He'll be eligible to return on July 18. Until then (or until they realize he's not very good), Gary Glover will serve as closer. The D-Rays don't have a lot of better options, so Glover will have to do. Hopefully, though, he won't have to do for your fantasy team. His line so far: 5.14 K/9 | 3.00 BB/9 | 1.17 K/BB | 40% GB.

The Devil Rays have created only 28 save opportunities so far this year—tied for seventh worst in baseball. I normally say that all closers deserve to be owned in all leagues, but Glover might be an exception when you combine his few opportunities with his poor skills. Because of his few opportunities, though, even if he blows a few saves and gives up some runs it shouldn't impact your team's stats much. I'll still give the green light on owning him in all leagues, but be aware he might provide a bit of negative value.

Mark Teixeira is getting close to returning. He could begin a rehab assignment next week and could be back with the team by next weekend. If you still can buy low on him, it might be a good idea. He could be traded though and, depending on where he goes, might lose a little value.

Rich Harden is expected to rejoin Oakland's rotation Saturday. Keep a close watch on his control. It was poor last year as he went on and off the DL, although pretty good in his three starts this year. He'll rack up the Ks, and Harden should be owned in all leagues, if he isn't already. I wouldn't recommend trading for him simply because he is so injury prone. There are better buy low options.

I'll be back tomorrow with the Waiver Wire.

Posted by Derek Carty at 8:05pm

Friday, July 06, 2007

Waiver Wire: American League

Here's the American League side of the Waiver Wire as we head into the All-Star break. From now on, I'm going to post the American League on Friday and the National League on Saturday. Seems like I've been doing this most weeks anyway, but now we'll officially make the change. Anyway, onto the Waiver Wire...

Gary Glover | TB | CL - I talked about Glover yesterday. While he could provide a bit of negative value in mixed leagues, he could also grab a few saves for you.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - Also talked about yesterday, Hughes can be picked up in a lot of leagues where he is on the Waiver Wire. If you have a free DL slot, you'd be hard pressed to find a better free agent to fill it for the next month. Should be owned in nearly all leagues when he comes back.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Jason Bartlett | MIN | SS - While he has very little power, Bartlett is showing good contact skills this year. He is walking at a 10% clip and hits a ton of line drives, plus he has an 85% contact rate. That should put Bartlett around .290. He is only hitting .254, which is why he is under the radar a bit. That will surely improve. He also has quietly stolen 17 bases. He stole 10 last year in less than a full season, so it seems as though he's got some speed. He might not get to 34 like he's on pace for now, but he could be a solid contributor for your team in BA and SB. He bats either first or second 30% of the time (the rest is spent batting eight or ninth), so he might also help a little bit with runs.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 8, 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Dustin McGowan | TOR | SP - 50% ground ball rate is very good, and his 7.16 K/9 should provide a little positive value. His 3.52 BB/9 isn't great, and we hope to see a K/BB over 3.00 in the American League. McGowan's is just 2.04. It's not great, but it is worth more than his 0.7% ownership in ESPN leagues indicates.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Jake Westbrook | CLE | SP - Succeeds on his ground ball rate, but it is down to 50% from over 60% the past three years. With a low K/9 and K/BB, he needs it to be over 60% to be mildly successful. His control is worse this year than usual, too. He's started only nine games so far, so I expect him to fix the walks and start getting some more ground balls. He's much better than his 6.27 ERA.
Recommendation - Should be owned only in very deep mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Brad Wilkerson | TEX | OF - Now getting some regular playing time, Wilkerson has posted 13 HRs so far. As he's only hit four over 400 true feet (according to HitTracker), I don't expect his 24% HR/FB rate to stay up. His previous high was 16% in 2004. While he walks 10% of the time, he won't put up a very good batting average given his 70% contact rate and 14% line drive rate. He's got some AL-only value, but because his power doesn't seem to be for real he really shouldn't be picked up in mixed leagues.
Recommendation - Should be avoided mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Jerry Hairston Jr. | TEX | 2B/OF - With Ian Kinsler out for a while, Hairston becomes the new second baseman in Texas. He has speed, but his SB numbers have beden dropping every year. He might grab a handful as a regular, and the potential is there for more, but we are unlikely to see it. His 17% line drive rate isn't as good as it was from 2002 to 2005 (low-20s), and his 7% walk rate isn't great, but his 85% contact rate should allow Hairston to hit at least .265. Doesn't have much power.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Billy Butler | KC | OF - His 1.4% walk rate is terrible, but he is hitting 23% line drives. His 82% contact rate isn't bad. He put up much better numbers in the minors both this year and last year, so an improvement is possible. With Mike Sweeney on the DL for a while, Butler will have a chance to play regularly, so we'll see if that improvement comes. Power wasn't great last year in Double-A, but to start the year it was good in Triple-A. He's put both of his HRs so far past 400 true feet, so he might be able to post another 10 or so in the second half. Not a guy to rush out for, but a somewhat intriguing case.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Neifi Perez | DET | 2B/3B/SS - I hope you weren't desperate to own Perez, even in an extremely deep league. If you were (first, my sincerest apologies), I think you'll be safe dropping him. He has been suspended 25 games, and I don't think anybody will be rushing to pick him up if he becomes available.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in all leagues.

Mark Grudzielanek | KC | 2B - Fresh off the DL, he should reclaim his starting spot and help out in deeper leagues. His great contact and line drive rates allow Grudzielanek to hit near .300 most years, although his walk rate is rarely higher than 6%. If he starts batting second again (he is tonight), he should also help out in runs. I wouldn't expect more than a few home runs, though, and RBIs will be tough to come by.
Recommendation - Should be owned only in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

A.J. Burnett | TOR | SP - Back on the DL. If his frustrated owner drops him, you should pick him up. When healthy, he is a very good pitcher and worth owning in all leagues. The problem is staying healthy.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all but the shallowest leagues.

Scott Baker | MIN | SP - Only has eight starts this year, but his numbers aren't bad. He has a decent 6.70 K/9, and his BB/9 is a nice 2.11. That puts his K/BB at 3.18. It was 3.88 last year in 16 starts, so Baker probably won't regress much. His 41% ground ball rate is much higher than 34% in 2005 and 2006 and will probably regress. Still, his high K/BB makes him valuable.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues.

Garrett Olson | BAL | SP - With Steve Trachsel on the DL, Olson got a shot in Baltimore recently. He might be back down in Triple-A soon, but he could wind up back in the bigs at some point in the second half. 2006 Double-A line: 9.04 | 3.30 BB/9 | 2.74 K/BB | 45% GB. 2007 Triple-A line: 8.29 K/9 | 2.74 BB/9 | 3.03 K/BB | 43% GB. Could provide a little K value in the majors with a K/9 maybe a bit south of 7.00. His control might not be good enough to keep him K/BB over 2.00, though. Worth a look in some leagues.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues while in the majors. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues while in the majors.

Reed Johnson | TOR | OF - Back from the DL, Johnson should get regular playing time and the leadoff spot in the order. Low 80s contact rate and low 20s line drive rate are nice to see, but his walk rate probably won't go over 7%. He could hit .280-ish with eight or so home runs. He should also pick up a nice number of runs hitting in front of guys like Alexis Rios, Vernon Wells and Frank Thomas. Might also snag a handful of steals.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues while in the majors. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues while in the majors.

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:48am

Saturday, July 07, 2007

Waiver Wire: National League

Here's the National League Waiver Wire for the week.

Manny Corpas | COL | CL - I talked about Corpas earlier in the week, but if he is still on your Waiver Wire he might be good for a couple more saves before Brian Fuentes resumes closing games. Fuentes is missing the All-Star game due to a pulled muscle. Doesn't sound serious, though, and he should take his job back within a week or two. Fuentes might end up being traded, so keep Corpas on your radar.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Mark Hendrickson | LAD | SP - Randy Wolf is expected to come off the DL on July 19, but until then Hendrickson should make a few starts. While this is his first year with a K/BB north of 2.00, it is also his first full year in the NL. He's split time between the rotation and the bullpen, but in his nine starts this year he has this line: 6.00 K/9 | 2.62 BB/9 | 2.29 K/BB | 47% GB. Not bad. Might be worth a pickup for a couple of weeks.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Wandy Rodriguez | HOU | SP - Rodriguez is showing much improved control this year, and his K/BB sits at a great 3.46. He's striking out nearly eight batters per game, so he has plenty of value in all leagues. He might regress, but seeing as this is his third year in the league and he's just 28 years old, this could just as easily be for real.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all but the shallowest leagues.

Chris Duncan | STL | 1B/OF - 11 HRs past 399 true feet and a 42% Fly ball rate mean Duncan should be hitting more HRs than he is... and he's got 16. His batting average should drop into the .270s, but his OBP will remain at a nice level. He still isn't playing every game, but when he does he has been batting fourth. That means plenty of RBIs and a decent number of runs. Should be owned in more than the 25% of ESPN leagues he's owned in. Just make sure you have someone who can play for your team on days when the Cards face a lefty.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all but the shallowest leagues.

Jo-Jo Reyes | ATL | SP - Put up nice numbers in Single-A last year, but his 4.63 BB/9 in Double-A this year makes success at the major league level unlikely. For this year, I'd stay away from Reyes, although he might not be completely useless with strikeouts. If he pitches well he could claim a rotation spot, but I don't see this happening.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 14-team NL-only leagues.

Dave Williams | NYM | SP - Will get the start tomorrow and will have a chance to take a regular turn in the rotation if he pitches well. With low strikeout and ground ball rates, though, this doesn't seem likely. Like Reyes, should be considered only in deep NL-only leagues.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 14-team NL-only leagues.

Adam LaRoche | PIT | 1B - Drafted and dropped in many fantasy leagues, LaRoche appears to be turning it on. He rocked a lot of balls out of the park last year, although this year his power has been a bit tamer. It's not bad, and a 43% fly ball rate will help him out. His 74% contact rate isn't very good, although his 10% walk and 20% line drive rates are pretty good. He's better than a .238 hitter. Might hit .270 and pick up a decent number of RBIs hitting in the middle of the order.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Yovani Gallardo | MIL | RP - After being moved to the bullpen, Gallardo was dropped in many leagues. With Claudio Vargas pitching poorly lately (or at least seemingly so), Gallardo could be in line for a rotation spot in the second half. He's worth stashing in a lot of leagues.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Khalil Greene | SD | SS - I picked him up in one league a few weeks ago (right before he went on his HR tangent), but he's still owned in less than 15% of ESPN leagues. Power is for real, and his career low .260 BABIP should increase. Good, cheap option at shortstop.
Recommendation - Should be strongly considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Ryan Theriot | CHC | 2B/SS - I wish the Cubs would just let this guy play. His walk rate has only been 5% since the middle of June after hovering above 10% most of the year. Perhaps he's feeling a sense of urgency to start producing results for Lou Piniella and is rushing things a bit. His contact rate in that span is 95% and his line drive rate is 24.5%, so Theriot's .271 batting average just doesn't seem high enough. He is capable of hitting over .290 and stealing a bunch of bases, so he is a good guy to play when he gets in the game. He normally bats second, so he'll also get a lot of runs, especially if his patience returns.
Recommendation - Should be strongly considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Matt Kemp | LAD | OF - Doesn't play every game, but he's got some value when he does. .354 batting average and .456 BABIP are much too high. His 73% contact rate (65% in 2006) isn't very good, and his walk rate is just 7%. Last year his 24% line drive rate was nice, but it has dropped to 18% this year. Despite his need for improvement in his contact numbers, Kemp has nice power. Hit six of his seven HRs past 400 true feet last year and has put two of three that far this year. One went 440 true feet. His fly ball rate is only 35%, but the potential for some nice power numbers are there. He could also grab a handful of steals
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:55pm

Monday, July 09, 2007

Second half splits and trading

The All-Star break is upon us. While most baseball players have the next few days off, this is a great opportunity for fantasy owners to be at their most active. As there are no games until Thursday, this is the time when fantasy owners start to examine their rosters and determine what they think they need to make a title run. I hope you have had a clear plan in mind all along and are constantly making adjustments as necessary, but not all owners do this.

The All-Star break serves as a great kick in the pants for these lazy owners. They realize that half the season is gone and that win, some changes probably need to be made. Make sure to talk with the owners in your league and find out what they are looking for. If it's a league with your friends, have them all over for the Home Run Derby tonight (or the All-Star Game tomorrow night) and lay the groundwork. Then follow up with a call tomorrow and see if you can hammer out a deal.

Second half splits

Don't be fooled by "second half splits," but be sure to use them to your advantage. Very few players are able to play better in the second half consistently, despite what many people believe. From 2004 to 2006, Ray Durham has batted .275 in the first half compared to .301 in the second half. It may appear that Durham turns it on after the All-Star break, but if we look more closely, we see that in 2004 Durham hit .287 in the first half and just .279 in the second half.

When we look at three-year, five-year, or career splits, what we are looking at is an aggregate number for each half. This does not mean that the player always hits better in one half, just that over a long period of time he happened to have done a little better in one than the other. It is perfectly reasonable to see him hit .260 one year in the second half, .340 the next, and .280 the next. Overall, he may have hit .300 in the second half over the past three years, but that does not necessarily mean he will hit well in this year's second half.

If Ray Durham—or any other player for that matter—is to perform better in the second half this year, it will not be because he is a "better second half player." For Durham, it will be because his career-low BABIP improves and because more of his shorter fly balls start clearing some fences.

First half versus second half

What is the difference between the "first half" and "second half" anyway? Let's say, for a minute, that a player does drastically change his approach in the middle of every year and can consistently go from putting up average numbers to great numbers. Why do we automatically assume that the All-Star break is when this happens?

In all honesty, the All-Star break is just an arbitrary point in time that we have gotten accustomed to using as a point of reference. Manny Ramirez started hitting better a month ago, and Durham might not start hitting better until the middle of August. But at the end of the year, we'll examine their seasons as two halves, divided at this day.

So why do we break down splits at the All-Star break? Is there some kind of magic in the air that suddenly changes players at this time every year? The answer, as I'm sure you've picked up by now, is "no." For whatever reason, though, many baseball fans seem to think something happens during these three days that can make a player perform better in the coming months. If you're lucky, you've got a few of these believers in your fantasy league.

Taking action

After reading this article, make sure to look up the aggregate splits for your players and those you'll be targeting. Make sure the favorable ones are brought to the attention of the other owners in your league. Use these splits to your advantage. You don't have to believe in them to use them as a selling point in negotiations.

"Rafael Furcal is a great second-half player. Over the last three years, he's hit .314/.377/.473 in the second half and .265/.335/.391 in the first. Eric Byrnes, on the other hand, has hit just .244/.297/.404 in the second half over that span."

"Remember last year, when David Wright hit just six\ home runs in the second half? That would really hurt your team if he does that again. As the year goes on, he's bound to get tired, and Shea Stadium isn't helping him any. Carlos Pena already has 20 home runs and is showing no signs of slowing down."

Pitching stats are even better to use because of how riddled with noise they are. Any pitcher, no matter how talented, can post an ERA north of 4.00 over two and a half months. Chances are, there are a number of high-quality pitchers with seemingly poor second half splits. Be creative when trading.

Concluding thoughts

I am not saying certain players will not perform better from this point on. Absolutely, a number of players will put up better numbers in the coming half than they did in the first. But the reason will not be that they "always do better in the second half."

Frank Thomas might do better because he stops getting unlucky. Ryan Freel might do better because he stays healthy. Edwin Encarnacion might do better because he gets regular playing time. Alex Gordon might do better because he's a rookie and starts to get better accustomed to the league. Milton Bradley might do better because he has switched leagues. Juan Uribe might do better because he plain old gets lucky.

And still there will be players who just play better. While there will be more than a few cases like this, the point is that trying to predict these players based on previous second halves isn't the best idea. Instead, try to predict these guys the same way we've been doing it all year. Look for those who are under-performing and have the peripheral stats to indicate that better times are ahead. Just because there is a break in the action, you shouldn't feel the urge to change your strategy or start viewing players differently than you did a week ago. Stick to your guns, and you'll be fine.

Posted by Derek Carty at 12:51pm

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Some bad advice from an “expert”

In a recent podcast, a fantasy baseball "expert" was discussing the expected rebound of certain alleged "second half" players. Let's assume for argument's sake that this is a fallacy; it certainly is based on his analysis. Why are some fallacies so persistent??

I don't mean the clearly crazy fallacies, like my continual efforts to get a date with Charlize Theron based on the fallacy that she likes balding older guys who play fantasy baseball (and what a world we would live in if this were true!). Baseball is particularly ripe for the belief in such fallacies; look no further than "The Curse," or that a fighting team will be roused and perform better the rest of the season (as debunked in the book Mind Game), or that players actually do hit worse with two strikes (as I discussed on my blog), or countless others.

Even geniuses are vulnerable; Isaac Newton was believed to be correct in his theories of gravity until quantum mechanics came along, and if he can be wrong so can I or anyone else! Aside from Newton though, most of the time that a fallacy remains persistent the reason is psychological; everyone wants to understand the world, yet not everyone has the knowledge or acuity to do so. In the absence of a proper understanding of how things really work, one merely devises an explanation that fits their knowledge and experience, rather than trying to add the knowledge to fully understand.

Here are three examples, one baseball related, one gambling related (I would wager that most fantasy owners are interested in gambling; Lord knows I am!) and one that just plain makes me crazy:

1. A slot machine player claims that "the machine is fixed." In a sense this is true; but not in the sense that the player means. Since the player does not understand how a random number generator works, he or she lacks the knowledge to understand what has happened. Similarly, when slot players hit for 100 coins, they say, "If only I played another coin I would have won more," ignorant of the fact that in the time it takes to put in another coin, the random number generator will have cycled through 10,000 different outcomes.

2. The current conventional wisdom on bullpen usage is far from an optimal pattern. Virtually every team uses its bullpen to maximize saves rather than to win. There are lots of reasons for this. They're beyond the scope of this column; there are many sources of analysis of bullpen usage. The point here is that the collective wisdom of managers is simply faulty; they "know" that only a pitcher of unique toughness and mental strength can pitch in the ninth inning despite copious evidence to the contrary. Similar comments apply for the existence of clutch hitters, or at least for the existence of clutch hitting as a repeatable skill.

3. A great many people believe in outright frauds like the psychics John Edward, Sylvia Brown and Uri Geller, to name some of the more famous charlatans. It boggles my mind that even desperate police will seek out these con artists. Since they do not understand how these despicable individuals ply their trade through techniques like "cold reading," they merely believe they can speak with the dead.

Now that I have vented on some of my pet peeves (and I must be crotchety today, as I could have written a whole column on these), lets look at the fantasy issue of the podcaster's list of players he thought would have second half rebounds. Why am I mentioning the second half rebound as a possible fallacy? Well, maybe it is true in some instances, but here, specifically are the players mentioned by this podcaster:

Matt Cain, Erik Bedard, Kelvim Escobar, Jon Garland, Joe Nathan, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez.

These are all very talented pitchers. With the possible exception of Garland, all have tremendous skills that needn't be addressed here; we all know them. The premise of the podcast was that these were all "second half" players, because they all performed appreciably better in the second half last year. Do you see the problem here?

Here is a look at Joe Nathan. As I am writing this he has a 2.59 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 14 saves. Presumably the podcaster was looking at that WHIP and relatively meager save total. So, he said Joe Nathan would rebound in the second half, since he has a history of "second half rebounds." However, the podcaster mentioned only the 2006 season. So let's even assume that there was a "history." Will this be the driving force behind any second half improvement?

Nathan has a 38% hit rate, which is astoundingly high for a pitcher of his caliber. Even for a pedestrian pitcher we would expect a regression to the mean of 30%. Nathan has, in his career, never allowed a BABIP of more than .300, yet now he is close to .390. If he improves, will it be because he is a "second half player"? Well, I for one am glad to know that an "expert" agrees that you should acquire Joe Nathan if you can. What great advice!

Looking at Erik Bedard, we see (as of this writing) a 3.60 ERA, 1.23 WHIP 10.9 K/9IP and 2.8 BB/9IP. This is a stud pitcher. He has a 33% hit rate, which is three percentage points above the norm, though Bedard has always been above the 30% benchmark, surprisingly. Given the K rate and BB rate (with a ratio of 3.9, which is excellent) and a somewhat unlucky hit rate, perhaps his ERA should be a bit lower. If he has a tremendous second half would anyone be surprised? He is a stud right now, and a stud should have a great second half. This isn't because he had a good second half last year; he is just a good pitcher.

Matt Cain is an even more puzzling choice by the podcaster. Last year was his first full season in the majors. Is it any wonder that he had a good second half? He was learning the league, and was about one year into his career (since he had roughly a half year in 2005). Moreover, he was unlucky with bullpen help in the first half, when only 64% of his runners were stranded (second half was a normal 73%). His improved second half, again, was not because of any innate ability to perform better in the second half. It was normalization of his statistics. This podcaster, who allegedly is a statistician, made a prediction on a second half sample size of one.

When looking for second half rebounders, or any "buy low" candidates, I generally don't go about it by looking at their historical splits. They may be valid or they may not be. But to make the prediction on those grounds is lazy, and there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself. Looking at a player's overall skill package, and whether he has been lucky or unlucky in relation to his skills, is how you find them. I am sure the podcaster meant well, but he apparently fell into the same trap as a hapless baseball manager who plays the slots while consulting his psychic.

Posted by Patrick DiCaprio at 5:55am

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Sunday, July 01, 2007

Carlos Pena: Is He For Real?