November 20, 2009
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 Wednesday, August 01, 2007Trade aftermath: Teixeira to BravesThe second big trade for the Braves, and the second big trade for the Rangers. While the deadline mostly consisted of relievers switching teams, this was the lone trade that involved a legitimate star. Braves get: 1B Mark Teixeira, RP Ron Mahay Rangers get: C/1B Jarrod Saltalamacchia, SS Elvis Andrus (A+), SP Matt Harrison (AA), P Beau Jones (A+), P Neftali Feliz (R) Quick outlook: Teixeira gains value. Saltalamacchia gains a little value. Mahay gains a little value. Harrison gains a little value. Jones is unaffected. Feliz is unaffected Indirectly affected: Scott Thorman loses value. Gerald Laird loses value. Brad Wilkerson gains a little value. Edgar Renteria gains a little value. Chipper Jones gains a little value. Jeff Francoeur gains a little value. Andruw Jones gains a little value. Analysis: Teixeira leaves a good park for homers, but he enters an easier league and a much better lineup. He will bat cleanup for the Braves, with Kelly Johnson, Edgar Renteria and Chipper Jones batting ahead of him. Each should be able to score some extra runs. Teixeira will have some combination of Jeff Francoeur, Andruw Jones, and Brian McCann behind him, padding his run total a bit. Those guys should also grab a few extra RBIs. The Braves lineup is definitely one to be feared now. Bad news for Thorman and his owners, as the only position he is able to play is now filled by Teixeira. Best case is that he stays on the bench and pinch hits. Worst case is that he gets designated for assignment. Either way, most of his value is gone. His position isn't set in stone, but no matter where Saltalamacchia plays, he will almost certainly be a full-time player. While he enters a tougher league overall, he will hit in a better park for power. He should have been hitting a few more home runs with the Braves, and looking at his HitTracker data, it appears that a larger than usual power spike might be in order for Salty. I wouldn't be surprised if he hits 10 homers in the next couple of months. The Rangers don't have many better hitters, so Salty could hit closer to the heart of the order than he did with the Braves, giving him some extra at-bats and some extra RBIs and Runs. Salty will likely play most of his games at catcher, which cuts into Gerald Laird's value a lot. It helps Brad Wilkerson, though; he could start most games at first base. Saltalamacchia might also play a little at first, so Wilkerson won't be in the lineup every day. Regardless, he should be a little more valuable than he was before this trade. You must realize that the Rangers lineup isn't very good anymore. Losing Kenny Lofton and Teixeira will hurt the RBI and run totals of the rest of the team, and Hank Blalock might be out another three weeks. Don't expect anyone on that team to put up gaudy numbers in either category. Posted by Derek Carty at 1:11pm (0) Comments Trade aftermath: Betemit to YanksThis will be the last deadline trade I'll look at, as it's the last one that has some semi-serious fantasy impact. Most of the smaller trades will be looked at in this week's Waiver Wire. Yankees get: 2B/3B/SS Wilson Betemit Dodgers get: RP Scott Proctor Quick outlook: Betemit gains a little value. Proctor gains value. Indirectly affected: Melky Cabrera loses value. Analysis: It will be interesting to see how the Yankees use Betemit. It certainly won't be at third. I hear they already have a guy over there who's pretty good. His name's Alex something or other. I've also heard he sucks, though... mostly from Yankee fans. I'm not sure what to believe. Digs at the stupidity of certain Yankees fans aside, Betemit probably has only a spot at first. How much he plays, though, is still up in the air. However the Yankees use him, he'll likely get more at-bats than he was getting with the Dodgers recently. When Jason Giambi comes back, the Yankees will be forced to either play Johnny Damon at first or bench Melky Cabrera and play Betemit. They could also use a combination of those options. So who should they play? Melky is the better contact hitter, but Betemit has a 17% walk rate so far and is a much better power hitter. He's hit seven home runs past 399 true feet, according to HitTracker. One went 444 true feet. Melky, on the other hand, has yet to hit one past 400 feet. Betemit also has the higher fly ball rate—41% to 27%. Of course, Betemit was hitting in the NL and Melky the AL, but I think the Yanks would be better off playing Betemit. What they actually do is yet to be seen. As far as Betemit's batting average, I think it is likely to come up given his 17% walk rate (although that is likely to see some regression) and low .268 BABIP. He's only hit 15% line drives this year, but seeing as it was 25% and 21% in 2005 and 2006, there is room for improvement. His 70% contact rate will prevent him from hitting for a high average, but a .270 batting average wouldn't be out of the question. Batting for the Yanks would give him some nice RBI and Run opportunities. If Betemit falls into some regular playing time, he could be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. He should also be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Proctor moves to a weaker league, although he still shouldn't really be owned. He gets very few ground balls and has shown poor control this year. He doesn't strike out many batters for a reliever, either. Posted by Derek Carty at 8:02pm (0) Comments Thursday, August 02, 2007Prospect highlight: Upton and Jones called upJust two days after the trade deadline, two of the most hyped prospects in baseball have gotten the call from their respective teams. Adam Jones and Justin Upton are in the bigs and are quite likely to stay. What kind of impact does each figure to have, though? That's what I'll be trying to figure out today. Adam JonesWas thought to be called up a few weeks back, but it turned out to be a false alarm. Now, it is the real deal. The first thing we need to do is look at his minor league numbers.
As you can see, his power has been going up at each stop, culminating in a spectacular 26% HR/FB rate in Triple-A this year. He doesn't hit an enormous number of outfield fly balls (major league average is roughly 32%), but most of his fantasy value will probably come from his power. As I say every time, it is extremely difficult to predict how minor league power will translate into major league power, but Jones has as good a chance as any to make it work. He could be good for 10 home runs over the next two months with regular playing time. His batting average doesn't look as promising. A contact rate in the low 80s is decent, but it dropped to 75% in Triple-A this year. He can't afford for it to go much lower in the majors. If it settles in around 72% and his walk rate around 5-6%, his average won't be very pretty. His line drives will help a bit, but he might only be able to hit .255-ish with those numbers. Of course, there is upside —an average closer to .275 this year, especially considering his nice BABIPs—but the lower end seems a little more likely. He has shown that he likes to run a little bit, although his success hasn't always been great. This might not bother the M's too much, though, as the team success rate is just 65%. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the last I read, a player (or team) needs to be successful at least 70% of the time to impact an offense positively. It doesn't seem like the Mariners realize this, so they could let Jones run even if he gets caught occasionally and even if it costs them some runs. Luckily, most fantasy leagues don't discount value for being caught stealing. The potential problem with his steals is that the Mariners are only 19th in baseball in attempts. Of course, they don't have many fast guys. Besides Ichiro Suzuki, the only Mariner with 10 or more stolen base attempts is Adrian Beltre, who has 10. It's difficult to say how the Mariners feel about Jones stealing, but he'll probably be seen as their second most dangerous threat on the bases, meaning he could be given some opportunities. I don't think he'll get to 10 steals, but he is a good bet to get more than five. What about playing time? The Mariners outfield consists of Raul Ibanez, Ichiro, and Jose Guillen, with the DH spot filled by Jose Vidro. Ichiro won't lose time, but when Jones plays, he'll be taking the spot of one of the other three, rotating in and out. Because he's likely better than Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez, I think—when he plays—he'll be slotted in the top six or seven in the order, giving him some decent RBI opportunities. How much will he play? Manager John McLaren, when asked about it, said, "I would prefer not to talk about Adam's role at this time." I don't think they've recalled him to bench him, so he might see four or five starts a week. Justin UptonAs you've probably heard, Upton won't turn 20 until the end of the month. Despite this, he is primed to take a full-time gig with the Diamondbacks' big league club. Having had only 242 at-bats in Double-A, is he really ready for the show? Let's check out his minor league numbers.
Upton has shown very nice power development, going up at each level—across the board—in AB/HR, HR/FB, AB/(2B+3B), and AB/XBH. His fly ball rate has stayed consistently at a good level. While it is developing nicely, I'm not quite sure it is good enough for the big time yet. He might be capable of hitting 12 homers over the next two months, but I think half of that is more likely. As long as he is handled properly (which he might be with this jump), he could become a legitimate power threat in the future. Upton's batting average—like Jones'—isn't quite as nice. His BABIPs have not been very good. It was a fantastic .402 in Single-A+, but we are looking at a fairly small sample size there. In Double-A, it was only .313. His line drive rates were also pretty low. This leads me to believe he might struggle hitting big league hurlers. Upton's walk rates are very nice and his contact rates are okay, but I don't see Upton putting up a great batting average this year. With a 76% contact and 7-8% walk rate, he might be able to hit .260-.265, but if his BABIP ends up being low he'll have trouble getting over .250. The Diamondbacks are fifth in stolen base percentage and 21st in stolen base attempts, so they are pretty selective with their runners. Upton has attempted 30 steals so far this year, but was successful only 63% of the time. We'll have to see if the Diamondbacks let him try, but the only guys they've really let run so far are Eric Byrnes and Chris Young. Of course, they have both been fantastic, so maybe Upton will be able to do this same. It doesn't seem incredibly likely though. Young stole at a 77% clip in Triple-A last year, so he could reasonably be expected to succeed in the majors. Upton should grab a handful of steals, but I don't see him as the 20-steal guy that many people do. Not yet, anyway. Unlike Jones, Upton has the luxury of a full-time job. With Carlos Quentin potentially out for the year, Upton should have right field all to himself, at least for a while. It seems unlikely the D'Backs would call him up and start his options clock if they knew Quentin would be back in a couple of weeks. Without much pop behind Young, Orlando Hudson, Byrnes, and Conor Jackson, Upton could find himself hitting as high as No. 5, although a spot around sixth or seventh might be more realistic. If he could secure the No. 5 spot, he would have plenty of RBI opportunities. Concluding thoughsSo, you may be asking, which of these guys is a better pickup? Well, it depends on what you're looking for. Neither should be counted on as a savior for your team, but in deeper leagues, they could contribute nicely. Jones probably will show more raw power, but the AL and Safeco might depress his totals a bit. Upton, conversely, probably will show less raw power, but has the NL and Chase Field to fall back on. When you combine this with his—potentially—better batting average, better spot in the order, and better likelihood for playing time, Upton looks like the better bet. Because his highest level is Double-A, though, and he had only a little over 200 at-bats there, failure is also more likely. Either way, be careful. Both have very good potential, but minor leaguers are the toughest to predict and are always a candidate for failure in their first stint in the bigs. Granted, Jones took 74 at-bats in Seattle last year, but they were just that...74 at-bats. Not enough to really judge him on. Jones can be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Upton can be owned in deep mixed and 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues. Posted by Derek Carty at 5:42pm (0) Comments Friday, August 03, 2007Waiver Wire: American LeagueWell, the non-waiver trade deadline has passed and there have been some serious fantasy ramifications. I looked at most of them throughout the week, so I won't get too repetitive with guys I've already gone into detail about. Joakim Soria | KC | CL - The new closer in Kansas City should have a pretty firm hold on the job. Gets strikeouts, has a very good K/BB. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Joaquin Benoit | TEX | CL - With Gagne gone, Benoit becomes the primary ninth-inning guy for Texas. Owners, be sure to keep close tabs on Akinori Otsuka's status. After a week or two, it might be worth trying to trade Benoit if an Otsuka return is likely. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. C.J. Wilson | TEX | RP/CL - Might be given a save opportunity if a couple of lefties are due up in the ninth. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Akinori Otsuka | TEX | CL - Could return in a week or two. When —if — he does, he'll be the closer. Recommendation - Should be owned in any league you need saves in. Eric Gagne | BOS | RP - Tough break for Gagne owners. Hopefully, you traded him, as I had suggested, before Texas did. Will pick up a few spare saves here and there, but his value has taken a big hit. Recommendation - Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues. Dan Wheeler | TB | RP - Wheeler has been a little better than Al Reyes this year, though he was in the NL. Reyes should keep the job for now, but if he falters, Wheeler is next in line. I wouldn't bet too much on that happening, though. It would take a couple weeks of poor innings, and there really isn't much time left in the season. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues. Kyle Davies | KC | SP - He's got a rotation spot locked up, but he really isn't very talented. The switch to the AL will only hurt his chances for success. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 14-team AL-only leagues. Jason Giambi | NYY | 1B - The Yanks now have a lot of guys they'd like to get playing time. Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, Shelley Duncan, and Wilson Betemit are already in the mix. Giambi is better than all of them, so hopefully he will get his regular at-bats. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues as long as he gets regular at-bats. Wilson Betemit | NYY | 2B/3B/SS - Playing time will be tough to come by, limiting Betemit's value. He does have nice power and his batting average should come up a bit. Plus, he's a Yankee now. RBIs and runs will be more plentiful than they were with the Dodgers... when he plays, at least. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - I've got to be nearing double digits for the number of times I've touted Hughes so far this year. He possesses the trifecta of pitching: high strikeouts, low walks, high ground balls. If he's not owned yet, he needs to be. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Aaron Laffey | CLE | SP - With Cliff Lee sent down, Laffey is likely to be recalled to make at least a couple of starts, despite having never pitched an inning above Double-A. He gets a lot of ground balls—like 60+%— but his K/9 in Double-A was only 4.87. He hasn't even shown great control. There's a real chance he will walk more batters than he strikes out in the majors. Recommendation - Should be avoided in all leagues, unless ground balls is a category. Adam Jones | SEA | OF - Some of the veterans are upset about it, but Jones should be in Seattle to stay. Took an in-depth look yesterday. Recommendation - Should be owned in very deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Kason Gabbard | TEX | SP - Was getting lucky with the Sox, so a move to Texas really isn't going to help. Should give up a lot of home runs. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should only be owned in deep AL-only leagues. Jason Botts | TEX | UT - While Sammy Sosa wasn't traded, it looks like Botts might start five games a week at DH, anyway, playing more often than Sosa. Sosa could clear waivers and be traded within a week or two, which would further solidify Botts' claim to the job. Ron Shandler says that a player's third stint in the majors—after the prospect shine has worn off— will often be the time when he finally starts to produce. The "Next Jack Cust" has a good chance of doing just that. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should only be owned in deep AL-only leagues. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | TEX | C/1B - Showed nice power with the Braves, and Arlington will further help him. Catcher eligibility increases his value. Batting seventh, as he has been, isn't great for his value. Recommendation - Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team, single-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team, single-catcher AL-only leagues. Should be owned in all two-catcher leagues. Danny Richar | CHW | 2B - Called up after the trade of Tadahito Iguchi, Richar will probably man second for the remainder of the season. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Alexi Casilla | MIN | 2B - Casilla won't play full-time at second, as many had expected him to after the trade of Luis Castillo. Manager Ron Gardenhire said he would ease Casilla into the role, splitting his time with Nick Punto and Luis Rodriguez. Punto will probably get the most time, but Casilla could start a few games a week. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Nick Punto | MIN | 2B/3B/SS - Could start to lose time in September, but for now he should start at least four games per week at second. 82% contact rate, 12% walk rate, but only a 14% line drive rate. LD% has been 22% for his career, though, so it could easily improve. He should be able to hit for a pretty good average and grab a good number of steals, but he has very little power. Batting at the bottom of the order won't help his RBIs and runs much. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Jonny Gomes | TB | OF - So underrated. Has 30, probably 40, HR power should he play a full season. He's also capable of hitting .260 while drawing some walks. He's beginning to play more, finally overtaking Greg Norton, and needs to be picked up by those in need of power. Batting sixth and seventh will allow him to get some RBIs, but runs won't be as plentiful. Hopefully, at some point, Joe Maddon will realize what kind of player he has and allow Gomes to hit fourth or fifth. That doesn't seem to likely, though. Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Kenny Lofton | CLE | OF - Will get less playing time with the Indians as he will face very few lefties. Only attempted one steal in July, so perhaps he is beginning to wear down. Watch closely how many attempts he makes over the next couple of weeks. He'll bat second most games, allowing him to score plenty of runs, but if he doesn't steal, he'll really only be a two-category contributor. He'll get a few RBIs in the second spot, but his home run production should drop off. Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues. There's a very good chance I missed someone with such a large Waiver Wire this week, so if you notice someone notable has been excluded, feel free to let me know either by email or in the comments. Posted by Derek Carty at 12:03pm (0) Comments Saturday, August 04, 2007Waiver Wire: National LeagueAs with the American League, if I covered a guy in one of the Trade Aftermath articles, I won't repeat myself. I will mention them, though, to have everyone in one place and for comparative purposes. Mark Teixeira | ATL | 1B - The best guy to switch leagues all year is ripe for the picking in NL-only leagues. I don't think he needs much explanation. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Octavio Dotel | ATL | RP - There's a chance he'll close sometime within the next couple of months, but with Bob Wickman and Rafael Soriano in the picture it will be difficult for him. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues. Manny Corpas | COL | CL - Brian Fuentes will begin his rehab assignment next week, but with how well Corpas is pitching he probably won't regain the closing role until September. It might be worth looking into a trade of Corpas, but if you don't he should still be counted on for at least three more weeks of closing. The Rockies will want Fuentes closing in 2008 to showcase him for a trade, so don't expect Corpas to close the rest of the year unless Fuentes gets hurt again. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Scott Proctor | LAD | RP - Not super talented and there is no way he will get saves. Can relatively be ignored. Recommendation - Should be avoided in all leagues. Joel Pineiro | STL | SP - Poor stats even as a reliever for the Red Sox this year, Piniero shouldn't be relied on for good stats as a starter, even in the NL. Recommendation - Should be avoided in all leagues. Luis Castillo | NYM | 2B - Can be relied upon for a .300 batting average, a lot of runs and a few steals. There are worse options out there. Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues. Tadahito Iguchi | PHI | 2B - Chase Utley's replacement should be good for at least a .280-.285 batting average, a handful of steals, and a little power. Should score a lot of runs given his No. 2 spot in the order and 13% walk rate. Recommendation - Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues. Ty Wigginton | HOU | 1B/2B/3B/OF - Decent power that will be helped by the Crawford boxes, but his batting average is only so-so. Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues. Justin Upton | ARZ | OF - A better bet than Adam Jones with the potential to exceed my recommendation, but I just can't pour mounds of praise on a guy who jumps to the bigs after less than 300 at-bats in Double-A. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues. Kyle Lohse | PHI | SP - Was injured during his last start and it is still unclear if he will go on the DL. If he doesn't, he can be useful in certain leagues. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues. Brian Lawrence | NYM | SP - Has good control and decent ground ball tendencies, but doesn't strike out a ton of batters. Pedro Martinez will be coming back soon, so Lawrence will be out of a starting spot pretty soon. I like him better than Lohse, though. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues. Phil Dumatrait | CIN | SP - Not very good control in the minors and not a lot of strikeouts. When Homer Bailey returns he could be sent back down. Recommendation - Should be avoided in all but very, very deep leagues. Matt Morris | PIT | SP - Not a lot of strikeouts, but a 4.53 LIPS ERA and 1.40 DIPS WHIP make him somewhat useful. Might lose a win moving to Pittsburgh, but St. Louis hasn't scored too many more runs than the Pirates this year. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues. Pat Burrell | PHI | OF - Seven of 11 home runs HitTracker has tracked have gone over 400 true feet, and he should continue picking up RBIs and runs to go with a .265-.270-ish average. Owned in only 54% of ESPN leagues. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Greg Dobbs | PHI | 1B/3B/OF - Batting average should drop closer to .260, but with three of seven home runs going further than 400 true feet, according to HitTracker, he could be a decent option in deep leagues. Will probably start against all lefties in right field and pick up a few extra at-bats elsewhere. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues. Posted by Derek Carty at 7:20pm (0) Comments Sunday, August 05, 2007Luck leaders: LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIPI've been receiving lots of emails lately from people looking for updated LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP numbers, so I thought this might be a good time to do an updated look at our pitching "Luck leaders." I think you're all familiar with LIPS ERA and DIPS ERA by now, but if not, you can click and see the original posts about them. LIPS ERALuckiest Requirements: Any pitcher with 12 or more starts and a LIPS ERA - ERA greater than 0.90
Unluckiest Requirements: Any pitcher with 12 or more starts and a LIPS ERA - ERA less than -0.90
DIPS WHIPLuckiest Requirements: Any pitcher with 12 or more starts and a DIPS WHIP - WHIP greater than 0.08
Unluckiest Requirements: Any pitcher with 12 or more starts and a LIPS ERA - ERA less than -0.10
Concluding thoughtsSorry, no thoughts on the numbers tonight. I've been a bit under the weather lately, and I need to get back to bed. I do hope this helps to satisfy you guys a little bit. If not, you can look forward to tomorrow or Tuesday when I'll post the top 25 best and worst pitchers for LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP. I'll also be posting about Ryan Braun, as well as another post on trade strategy, within the next couple of days. Posted by Derek Carty at 9:49pm (0) Comments Monday, August 06, 2007Trading strategy: Partners and standingsWhen most of us make a trade, we normally look to get maximum value returned to our own teams. This is our first instinct and is certainly a good strategy, especially in the early portions of the season. At this point in the year, however, there might be a superior way to deal. The strategyI spoke last time about how it can be a solid move to receive less than 100% value in a trade, as long as it helps your team improve in a certain category. This time, I'll again say that it is okay to receive less than 100% value on your players but for a different reason. Nearly as important as making trades that add points to your total are trades that will subtract points from your opponent's total. If you can take a chunk out of your opponent's points, it will indirectly benefit you (assuming you can do it in the right situations), making a trade for less than 100% value acceptable. Example scenarioYour team sits in second place overall. You are in a twelve team league and currently have 6 points in saves. No team is within 12 saves of you — in front or behind. The first place team overall is currently first in saves, but is closely being trailed by the team that is sixth overall. Being the savvy fantasy player that you are, you offer the sixth place team your top closer for a player of slightly less value than you would normally expect. Being a decent player himself, he realizes that he is getting good value and jumps on the deal. Over the next two months, the closer you traded helps him to take first in saves. In the process, your primary opponent loses a point off his total. Of course, that example only costs your opponent one point, because we are dealing with closers. If you decide to trade a guy who helps in several categories, the results will be different. If you trade Adam Dunn — who helps in HR, RBI, and R — for Juan Pierre — who will provide a better batting average and more steals — (not that I would normally advocate such a trade) you might be able to hurt your opponent more than if you had traded a closer. The guy who receives Dunn could jump over your first place opponent in HR, RBI, and R, which would then set your opponent back three points. Make a couple trades like this, and you could find yourself sitting in first very shortly. Just make sure that the team you trade with is not a big threat to make a quick climb to the top. The perfect scenarioOf course, if all the pieces fall into place, you can accomplish everything in one trade. You gain 100% on your trade, you fill a hole or two, improve in a couple of categories, and trade a quality player to a team that will hurt your primary competitor and won't hurt you. This won't happen very often, but when it does, you should be very happy. Even if everything doesn't fall perfectly into place, there are ways to use this method and still improve your own team. When trading away a player that will hurt your opponent, make sure you target a player that can also improve your own team in the standings. I'm sure you won't be giving players away, but even if you don't get 100% value, make sure to a target a player that can help your own team in the standings too. Who this applies toThis really only applies to those that are towards the top of their league's standings. If you are in the middle of the pack, it is more important to improve your own team, either via superior value or through acquiring players that will catapult you several points in certain categories. Knocking a few points off of the total of one of the teams at the top really won't help you much. It will just allow another team at the top to take the lead. If you have a lot of ground to make up, it is much more important to help your own team than it is to hurt another team. Concluding thoughtsThe essential idea behind all of this is that a point lost by your opponent is just as good as one gained by you. Of course, you have many opponents in fantasy baseball, so you need to be careful that the team you help improve doesn't stand to become your next primary opponent. Because of this, it is better to gain points yourself than it is for one of your opponents to lose points. There is less risk involved. Always pursue the original strategy first, complementing it with the new strategy where applicable. In situations where you are unable to successfully use the original strategy (lack of available options, stubborn traders, whatever), then it is appropriate to use the new strategy. Analyze your own situation carefully, explore all available options, and you should be fine. Posted by Derek Carty at 3:08pm (0) Comments LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP leadersAs promised, here are the best and worst pitchers of 2007, through Sunday, based on LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP. The criteria for each list is 12 starts. Top 30 - LIPS ERA
Bottom 30 - LIPS ERA
Top 30 - DIPS WHIP
Bottom 30 - DIPS WHIP
Concluding thoughtsA few of my favorite guys have dropped a little. Andrew Sonnanstine has had 3 sub-par starts in a row. He's someone to watch carefully for now. He's still #30 in LIPS ERA, and I still have faith in him, so don't panic yet. Wandy Rodriguez has had 2 poor starts in his last 4, but he was yanked from one after 3.1 innings. Don't worry too much about him either. I'm still hanging tight. If you are worrying, the good news is that a few more names have emerged as sleepers. Scott Baker is putting up nearly identical numbers to his 2006 season, but this year he's not getting as unlucky as he did last year (still unlucky, though). He would make a solid pickup in all but shallow leagues. Shaun Marcum is another guy who would make a nice pickup. He has always had amazing control in the minors, and in AAA last year put up a 10.25 K/9 in 52.2 innings. Kelvim Escobar makes a good sell high target. The guy has consistently pitched well all year, or seems to have, but his K/9 has been trailing off a bit lately and his 3.98 LIPS ERA doesn't match his 2.79 ERA. Erik Bedard continues to pitch amazingly. If you have a guy like Chris Young or John Smoltz or Josh Beckett and can get Bedard, you need to do it. This may prove difficult, now, though, as his LIPS ERA is now in line with his ERA. Posted by Derek Carty at 11:01pm (0) Comments Tuesday, August 07, 2007Being PreparedSadly, the fantasy baseball season is starting to wane, as some owners now turn their attention to football. Heathens! Football drafts are coming up, even though the baseball season still has almost two months left! In many instances, thoughts turn to next year for those not involved in football. If you are thinking about next year in baseball, one thing to think about now is how to spend your offseason, and what needs to do to be done to be prepared. Right when I first started my blog, I was asked by a co-owner about my preparation for my high stakes league auction. You can find advice on preparation all over the fantasy world in all types of fantasy games; generally the advice is something like "to win you must be prepared," but rarely is there any specific advice, a problem that is endemic to fantasy sports—the lack of specific advice in favor of general rules or cliches. Many fantasy baseball players play other fantasy games or sports, and this advice will help in all types of fantasy contests. 1. Projections. These are a necessity but of relatively limited value against good competitors. Why? Because they are relatively easy to obtain, all good players will have good projections and there are only marginal differences between the best ones. Getting stuck on projections and dollar values, and especially when you use them as a ceiling for bidding or as the key determining factor in drafting, is a trap. Fantasy baseball is not a game of who can get the most accurate projections; it is about exploiting others' errors of judgment and exploiting the differences in actual and perceived value. This is one of the key core principles of fantasy baseball; it is less true in other fantasy sports games like football, but still valid. Baseball allows this principle to be exploited to the fullest due to the long season, and the variations in value over a daily six month season. Projections are important since they are the basis for the determination of value. Of much more importance is how they are used. 2. Study. Bobby Knight said, probably while throwing a chair, that most people have the will to win, but few have the will to prepare to win. It takes a lot of study to win, especially in tougher or deep leagues. Most fantasy players play in some version of a 10 or 12 team mixed league, myself included. Even in these, where preparation is not too difficult, it is clear that some have no idea what they are doing. Two years ago, one owner in my mixed league drafted Mark Mulder with his first wraparound pick in the second round (#13 overall). In the reserve rounds this year, I picked up James Shields and Joe Blanton. Virtually no one in the league knew who Shields was. One owner drafted a whole bunch of minor league prospects, even though he could have used these roster spots to stockpile pitchers to maximize his two-start pitchers. Some poor sap (me) even drafted Jake Westbrook. In tougher leagues it is a different ballgame altogether. My high stakes league is sufficiently deep that in a given week there can be less than 30 hitters total available in the free agent pool. What does it take to be prepared in a league like this? At a minimum I think it takes at least one hour of auction or draft preparation for each roster spot, and probably more. If a name is brought up in a draft or the auction that I don't recognize and I have to look him up in a book to identify him, I am disappointed. One year, it was the very first player to be brought up (Boof Bonser of all people, when he was not yet in A-ball in 2001). In my high stakes league, for example, there are at least five owners (out of 11) who make their own projections, and one even uses modeling to prepare for the auction! These guys are doing far more than 60 hours of preparation. One even took a week-long vacation to prep full-time the week before the auction. You can tell who knows what they are doing and who doesn't very easily. At the end of the draft or auction is a guy scrambling for choices? Does he take five minutes in deciding whether to bid $5 on Fernando Cabrera? Does he draft Fox Mulder instead of Mark Mulder??? 3. A plan. This should be obvious but most players never plan beyond more than "I will follow my budget and spend 70% on hitting and 30% on pitching, etc." A good plan should include a specific objective for each roster spot. My team usually has at least four or five separate contingency plans, planning for depletion of the different positions. If pitchers go over value and go quickly, we have plan A; if it is outfielders then it is Plan B, and so on. Multiple plans and scenarios allow us to respond to whatever craziness the auction or draft brings. 4. An auction strategy. If you play in auction leagues, what I am referring to here is how you will bring up players and how you will deceive your opponents. The basic "strategy" is that one tries to drain money at positions they don't need, and then wait for bargains. You can read this in virtually every fantasy sports book ever written. But this hoary advice will get you in trouble against players who will take advantage of this. In my auction this year there was rampant inflation early, and people were not prepared, leaving them with lots of money left over. This meant large inflation late in the auction also. Those who didn't see this coming had a tough time. Why? Because they assumed that there would be bargains late, according to the basic strategy. There were none. Having calculated the inflation beforehand, my co-owner and I anticipated that this would happen and prepared accordingly. We obtained most of our players in the middle of the auction. Two years ago in an auction, our second year in the league, my team auctioned five of the first nine players brought up. It is often said that "no battle plan survives contact with the enemy", and this is especially true in auctions against good opponents. Normally you try to wait for bargains, but occasionally the bargains come right out of the box, depending on what the other owners have planned. We jumped in early and adjusted our plan because other owners let it happen, choosing instead to wait on their money. That is not to say they were wrong for doing so of course, it is just a matter of strategy and planning. It is a fine strategy if you have lots of money in a keeper league, or if you are starting from scratch. But if you have a middling amount of money a better plan is needed. The key is flexibility. You must adapt to what is happening in front of you. And you must be tricky. One strategy, that we picked up from John Benson, is to have a deceit sheet that you will make visible to those who would try to look at your cheat sheets. This can be any title you wish, from "Breakout Candidates" to something completely off the wall like "Ch per AB integer matrix." It should contain the names of a few players you don't want. Add to it players you have auctioned and leave it in a place where others will glance at it. Then bring up the guys you don't want, but bid on all of them. If you are getting ready for fantasy football, feel free to adapt this advice. But don't ignore your baseball team; the season is far from over! Posted by Patrick DiCaprio at 7:50am Wednesday, August 08, 2007Ryan Braun: The real deal?Ryan Braun should reach his 300th major league plate appearance tomorrow night. Over those first 300 trips to the plate, Braun has been nothing short of spectacular: .346/.390/.665 with 21 homers. Since he's a rookie, though, we have to wonder: Is he playing over his head? Let's find out. MinorsWhen Braun was called up, I was skeptical. This was mostly because I didn't think he was completely ready, and because his numbers in the lower levels of the minors were less than spectacular. He took only 231 at-bats in Double-A (in 2006) and 109 at-bats in Triple-A (to start this year). I thought he was being rushed. The Triple-A numbers, while great, were almost too small a sample size to take seriously. He had a 91% contact rate, 11% walk rate, 22% line drive rate, 34% HR/FB. His Double-A numbers were worse: 78% contact rate, 8% walk rate, 12% line drive rate, 22% HR/FB. The power there was the only thing to get excited about. As such, I kept my expectations low for Braun, at least for this year. As I'm sure you've realized, he has far exceeded them... to the tune of 9.0 RC/G. Batting averageLet's dig a little deeper into his seemingly great numbers. Behind Braun's .346 batting average is a 77% contact rate, 7% walk rate and 20% line drive rate. He also has a .385 BABIP. That is probably the most telling number of all. No hitter>—not Barry Bonds, not Albert Pujols, not Alex Rodriguez>—is capable of sustaining a BABIP that high. It will come down. His 7% walk rate is a little below average and his 20% line drive rate is a little above average, so a BABIP near league average would be more reasonable than the current .385 mark. Home runsLet's get back to what type of batting average to expect the rest of the year after we examine his power. He currently sports 21 homers, a 24% HR/FB and a 42% fly ball rate. The first place we'll look to see if that sparkling HR/FB rate is for real is HitTracker. Of Braun's 21 homers, 10 have traveled farther than 400 true feet. That's a nice chunk, making his 24% HR/FB look pretty legit. A couple of days ago I was a little concerned because his furthest had gone only 419 true feet, and he had several in the 400-408 range. Then he hit a 416-foot one on Saturday and a 438-foot one on Monday, easing my nerves a bit. Batting average revisitedSo let's say he continues to put up a 24% HR/FB and his BABIP adjusts to around .310 (and his contact, walk, and fly ball rates remain constant). That would put his batting average at .294 the rest of the way. It would drop to .287 if his BABIP is only .300. Not bad at all, considering the nice power numbers he'll put up. Concluding thoughtsThe verdict: Braun is very good. Not .350 good, but very good. Continue to rely on Braun for good power and a pretty good batting average, even if it won't stay as high as it has been so far. The players surrounding Braun are quite good, so the RBIs and runs should keep coming as well. I didn't touch on his speed, but it is right in line with what I expected. He should be able to grab five to eight more steals the rest of the year. I think it shows great maturity and skill for Braun to put up a good line drive rate (20%) and fly ball rate (42%) in his rookie year. Not a lot of hitters are capable of doing both. Quite impressive. Overall, Braun could be one of the top five third basemen going into 2008, helping in all categories. If you're in a keeper league and are now playing for next year, a trade for Braun might be a smart move. If you're in a redraft league, I doubt you'd be able to get him at a reasonable price given his inflated batting average. Seeing Braun contributing across the board will lead some owners to believe Braun can continue to hit well over .300. It can't hurt to try to get him, but don't get your hopes up. If you own him, sit tight. Expect a slight regression but continued good play. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||