THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:44pm (0) Comments

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

22 players in two weeks? An egregious trade pipeline and collusion

One item that became apparent in the aftermath of the collusive trade addressed previously was the establishment of a trade "pipeline" between Teams A and B. When the outcry began about the collusive trade, the commissioner looked at every trade they made last year and this year and saw that an unquestionable pipeline existed, and is only now taking action. Too little too late.

In the next two weeks, these colluders made four more trades, so there were a total of five in two weeks. Aside from the previously discussed first trade, here are the rest. Contract statuses are:

s1--can be kept next year only by increasing salary by 10.
s2--can be kept for one more year at current salary. Or, after this season, they can be signed to a long term contract at an increase of $5 per year.
s3--a guy just auctioned this year. Next year he becomes an s2, and if not signed long term, becomes an s1 and then returns to the free agent pool unless he is signed to the $10 increase.
0P-a free agent picked up this year. Can be kept at a salary of 10 next year.
0L9--a rookie. When they lose rookie status they become 7s2.

So here are the trades:

Team A(the alleged dumper)--
1. Trades to Team B: Frank Thomas 10 s1, Scott Linebrink 4 s1, Jason Michaels 1 s1, Kenny Rogers 8 s1, and Brandon Lyon 0 L9
for Wily Mo Pena 8 s3, Bronson Arroyo 12 L6, Kevin Slowey 2 s3, James Loney 10 s3, and Miguel Cairo 0 P.

This appears to be a relatively fair trade in a vacuum.

2.Team A trades:
Rich Aurilia 1 s1, Jay Payton 4 s1, Ramon Hernandez 10 S1, Chad Cordero 13 L1, Todd Jones 18 S1, Kevin Millar 8 s3, R. Spilborghs 0 L9.
Team B trades:
Gerald Laird 6 s2, Ryan Shealy 7 s2, Dustin Moseley 0 L9, Jose Cruz, Jr. 1 s3, Jacque Jones 15 s2, Jeff Baker 1 s3

This trade is an absolute joke. Two closers, a catcher who was a top ten AL catcher, a burgeoning young outfielder who is keepable for a few backups and mediocre outfielders. Despite the fact that a few can technically be kept next year, aside from Moseley it is possible none of the players the alleged rebuilder is getting may be kept. Guys like Jones, Shealy and Laird are not valuable at those salaries when they can be kept for next year only. This trade isn't as bad as the next one.

3. Team A trades: Wandy Rodriguez (0P), Dustin McGowan (0P), and Yuniel Escobar (0P)Team B trades: Jose Bautista (2s3), Scott Downs (0P), and Doug Brocail (0P).

There is simply no justification for this one. More on this trade below.

4. Team A trades: Rob Mackowiak (SD) 0 L9
Team B trades: David Wells (SD) 4 s3

In sum, Team A (and let's call them The Cleveland Spiders) traded:

Thomas, Linebrink, Michaels, Rogers, Lyon, Lowe, D. Lee, Tavares, Lackey, V. Martinez, Jose Lopez, Rich Aurilia, Payton, Ramon Hernandez, Chad Cordero, Todd Jones, Millar, Spilborghs, Wandy Rodriguez, McGowan, Y. Escobar and Rob Mackowiak. That is an astounding 22 players in two weeks.

This includes two top closers, two good young pitchers, a few cheap NL keepers who are undervalued like Spilborghs and Escobar, an everyday catcher, and some others. These are not the moves of a rebuilder unless he is just a total fool. Any of these guys could have been traded piecemeal and a lot more value obtained. He gave a team mired in a close race all it needed to gain about 50 points.

What did this alleged rebuilding team get? Lets call Team B The St. Louis Perfectos, who gave up:

Utley, Freel, Baek, Cano, Gload, Garza, W. Pena, Arroyo, Slowey, Loney, Cairo, Laird, Shealy, Moseley, Cruz, Jacque Jones, Baker, David Wells, Jose Bautista, Scott Downs, Doug Brocail (!)

Here we have absolute zeroes in Cairo, Brocail, Downs and Bautista, a few backup fantasy types in Pena, Shealy and Laird, two over the hill outfielders in Jones and Cruz, the beleaguered Arroyo and the now released David Wells. Freel, Gload and Baek are not good keepers. The rest are all decent to excellent (Cano, Garza, Slowey, Loney and Utley).

One could generously argue that adding Utley, Pena, Slowey, Garza, Loney, Shealy and Moseley is a net positive for a rebuilding team. That's fine in a vacuum. But do you need to trade 22 players to get them?? Given the totality of the circumstances it is difficult to see anything here other than a boogeyman.

Of course, being in the front lines, perhaps I am biased, so any readers who want to comment should feel free to e-mail me or comment.

It should be obvious that these are not fair deals. It should be obvious that the trading of this many players in two or three weeks is not healthy for a league, and by itself is evidence of collusion. What is worse, this onslaught resulted in other teams doing the same thing, trading over 20 players in the short two week run up to our trade deadline. More on that next week. Trade three stands out in my mind as particularly egregious and bald faced cheating with no possible explanation to justify it, though it just barely nudges out trade two in this respect.

What is worse is that an owner competing with The Perfectos offered the Spiders Lastings Milledge for McGowan and Wandy and Team A would only do the trade for one of the pitchers. Fair enough. But to then do the above trade means that the Spiders' owner thought Milledge wasn’t good enough for both, but Bautista was good enough for the two AND Escobar, since Downs and Brocail are zeroes. I should mention that the owner who offered Milledge wasn't just competing but was virtually tied with Team B, who is now a serious contender to win the league. So it is no surprise that Team A refused to trade the two pitchers to him.

To say that these deals aren't collusive is really to say that an owner must decide that he would rather have Bautista, Downs and Brocail rather than Milledge. Of course no sane owner would prefer those three to Milledge.

There is plenty of blame to go around. The commissioner did not act quickly enough, for example. But the fact remains that it all comes down to ethics. The owner's didn't have to collude, they decided to do so. Whether the commissioner acted appropriately is a separate question. Just because something may be doable doesn't mean it should be done.

What makes it even worse is that I guarantee that neither owner thinks they did anything wrong and both continue to justify the deal even to this day on our league message board, though at least they didn't think we were all foolish enough to accept any justification for deal three above, and they have offered none.

The real life Spiders/Perfectos debacle led to contraction of the National League and a vigorous challenge by the upstart American League. Some things never change, as these ludicrous dealings may lead to contraction as well, only of a fantasy league.

Posted by Patrick DiCaprio at 7:28am

Pedro Martinez: Revisited

Sorry for missing a couple of days guys. Moving back into school took much longer than expected. Anyway, I'm all settled in now and ready for the home stretch of the fantasy baseball season.

For today, let's take one more look at Pedro Martinez, who I talked about the other day as well.

Command

I said the other day that — aside from remaining healthy — the most important thing for Pedro to do will be to have command of his pitches. Here are two quotes, the first from Pedro and the second from Paul Lo Duca, on the subject.

"I feel like I can probably throw a little harder, but there's no need. I need to get command of the pitches. From 85 to 88, if I have command of my pitches, I'll get anybody out. I wouldn't hesitate to say that."

"You take Pedro's velocity, his ability to locate his pitches and his stuff, and you can see why he's had the career he's had. They're all off the charts when he's healthy and able to execute his pitches. It's been a while since he's been healthy."

Monday's start

Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus says that Pedro's command was very good on Monday:

"If you look at the way he pitched, it's like nothing he's ever done. He mixed in five distinct pitches at varying speeds and locations that seemed to have the Reds off balance... Martinez didn't pitch this way in the minors."

Scott Hatteberg, who was a catcher with the Red Sox when Martinez was pitching there, seemed to agree with Carroll:

"The guy used to throw 90-plus, real sharp breaking ball, changeup, electric stuff. He doesn't have that now, that would be something you couldn't expect. As far as knowing how to pitch, he still knows how to pitch. His command. He changes speeds, works counts, knows hitters and kept the ball on the corners."

Perhaps I'm reading too much into it, but read this quote from Pedro on the outing:

"Now, my next outing is probably gonna be more like a normal outing."

Does that mean he's going to switch from the way he approached the Reds? Again, I'm probably looking too deep into it (I'm also exhausted, which doesn't help matters), but either way I don't see a problem. He either continues to pitch how he did against the Reds, mixing pitches and changing speeds and whatnot, or he goes back to his old formula for success.

Regardless, he's been around long enough that he knows how to pitch, how to game-plan. It's just the implementation of the actual pitches themselves, if done poorly, that could hurt him. Let's check out his official line from Monday and see if we can't make out how he is doing in that regard:

5 IP / 76 pitches / 4 K / 3 BB / 38% GB

That's definitely not terrible. The 4 strikeouts in 5 innings are nice to see, but keep in mind that two of those were from Aaron Harang. Striking out Hatteberg, though, is encouraging.

He walked more batters than you'd like him to, but Cincinnati is 6th in baseball in walks. It also could have something to do with this, from the New York Daily News:

"[Pedro] wasn't thrilled with his ability to spot his curveball, which he attributed partially to the low humidity relative to Florida, where he had been rehabbing."

That is not really what you'd like to hear. Still, I'd have to think that he'll improve with every start. If he goes 5 innings with 4 strikeouts and 2 walks next game, I would call it a pretty big success.

Health

Obviously the most important thing for Pedro. After the game on Monday, he had this to say about it:

"Healthy. It was the biggest gift for me today - just the fact that I came out healthy, and I knew I could do a little bit more."

"I was able to get in five innings and give my team a chance to win, and I came out healthy. I felt pretty fresh, to be honest."

He also acknowledged, though, that "one game does not dictate how good you’re gonna be, or how healthy you’re gonna feel." Paul Lo Duca shared the same sentiment:

"We don't know for sure what he's going to be now, how strong he's going to be, how much he'll be able to repeat his delivery. But if he's Pedro again, watch out."

One more potential red flag to take note of. Pedro underwent rotator cuff surgery just eleven months ago, and is back pitching in the majors already. From MLB.com:

"Nobody has ever done this," Martinez said. His doctors -- Mets physician David Altchek performed the surgery -- told him they knew of no other pitcher who had pitched within a year of rotator cuff repair. "Nobody has been able to climb that big mountain," Pedro said. "I'm happy to give it a try."

While the quote was given as a testament to Pedro's perseverance, toughness, and ability to overcome anything, it does make me a little worrisome. I am no doctor, but to think that Pedro came back that quickly from a surgery like that, I just have to wonder if he will be able to hold up.

This is not to take anything away from Pedro or what he has accomplished. I am a Mets fan and, personally, love the guy. He's a fantastic pitcher and a fantastic competitor. We need to be realistic, though, for fantasy purposes, and keep personal feelings aside. We need to look from all angles.

Will Carroll called Pedro's rehab "brilliant handling from day one by the Mets and their medical staff," so that definitely alleviates some doubts. Still, it might be something to keep in the back of your mind.

Role

I had said at the end of the last article that I might keep Pedro benched in fantasy leagues for his first start. This is what I was getting at, from the mouth of Pedro himself:

"This is considered like a rehab game, and I was able to get five innings in, give my team a chance to win, make it a quality outing, and at the same time I came out healthy."

Pedro isn't ultra-concerned with winning in the present. He wants to win a World Series, and he wants to make sure that he is right by then. If that means experimenting a little bit more with some pitches now, I wouldn't put it past him (nor would I be upset with him).

I'm sure more than a few people would be upset if Pedro overexerts himself and re-injures himself before October. Without exactly saying it, I'd have to think this quote means that Pedro feels the same way:

"If we are in first place, no, we're not in trouble," Martinez said. "If we fall out of first place, trouble is around the corner. As long as we are in first place and everybody else is chasing us, we're doing fine."

He also said this:

"From now on we’ll continue to see. Until I get four or five starts here in the big leagues I won’t be able to tell you if I’m off the hook or not."

He's going to pitch to get himself back to a comfortable level. He's still treating these as semi-rehab starts. Even then, though, he's still Pedro Martinez.

With all the press that is circulating about the inconsistency of the Mets and how they need to be careful or the Phillies will catch them, you might not realize something. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Mets have a 95% chance of winning the division and a 98% chance of making the playoffs. I believe that those numbers are without including Pedro in the equation. Really, I don't see the Mets getting overtaken by the Phils.

If Willie Randolph realizes this even to a small extent, he won't feel any need to push Pedro harder than necessary. Really, the Mets are playing for the post-season. What happens up until then, as long as they win a reasonable number of games, is of little importance in the grand scheme of things.

Final Outlook

While I don't see Pedro racking up the innings, I do think his numbers will be pretty good. I think there is a very good chance of him posting a K/9 over 8.00, and as long as he can command his pitches, a BB/9 of 3.00 seems reasonable. That figure would actually be his highest since 1995, so he could easily exceed that expectation.

Also, when you factor in the Mets and their National League-leading defense, and the fact that other Mets starters have done very well with worse peripherals, Pedro looks like a pretty safe bet, performance-wise. Check out the other starters:

Tom Glavine - 1.34 K/BB - 4.06 ERA
John Maine - 2.29 K/BB - 3.57 ERA
Oliver Perez - 2.30 K/BB - 3.39 ERA
Orlando Hernandez - 2.18 K/BB - 3.32 ERA

If Pedro goes 8.00/3.00, that would leave his K/BB at 2.67, better than any of the other Mets starters.

Pedro Martinez needs to be owned in all leagues, and should be started from here until the end of the season. Even if he isn't the Pedro Martinez of old, he is still darn good.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:50pm (0) Comments

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

HitTracker and future player evaluations

Those of you that have been reading me all year know how much I love HitTracker. I use it for all of my player evaluations, so I would first like to express my infinite gratitude to Greg Rybarczyk for creating such a magnificent tool. It is simply amazing.

However, I have been using it somewhat crudely so far this year, and I would like to improve my methods for next year.

Three types of home runs

Back in April, Greg Rybarczyk penned an article for THT entitled Sometimes It Is How Far You Hit Them. In this article, he introduced a system he created, organizing all home runs into three categories: Just Enough, Plenty, or No Doubt.

I love the logic behind this system, but because of certain flaws I see in it I haven't really referred to it much here.

Imagine you're out hitting baseballs with a friend. You're going to hit 1000 of them. Now imagine the farthest you can possibly hit the ball in the air. Maybe it's just out of the infield, maybe it's as far as a Major League warning track. However far it is for you, personally, you probably won't hit too many of the 1000 balls that far. You will only be able to muscle a few out that far. If it were easy for you to hit them that far, then it likely wouldn't be the farthest you could hit a ball, would it? Greg would classify these types of balls as "No Doubt" home runs.

Now, pretend that there is an imaginary line roughly 80-85% of the distance to the point of your farthest hit. Let's say that for major leaguers, out in center field, 475 feet is the farthest a particular player can hit a ball. Let's say the center field wall is at 400 feet. Anything under 400 feet, hit to that part of the park, will not clear the fence and will not be a home run.

Back to you. Pretend that that 80-85% mark is your personal home run fence. Any balls you don't hit over that mark, in the air, will not be a considered a home run for you. Now pretend that there is another imaginary line just a little past your personal home run line, maybe 85-88% out. Now, while you might hit a lot of balls that don't quite make the barrier and a lot between 88% and 100%, you probably won't hit too many that are just clearing the fence, simply because of the limited space you have to work with. The balls that do get hit into this small area, Greg would classify as a "Just Enough" home run.

Any ball hit between 88% and maybe 95-97% would be classified as a "Plenty" home run. These balls are clearing the fence enough to escape being classified as "Just Enough", but they aren't your best hit ones, so they aren't "No Doubt" home runs either. These are the types of home runs you will hit the most of, given a lot of swings.

The way Greg recommended using this system was to calculate every home runs a player hits. Let's say a particular player is hitting a ton of "Just Enough" home runs compared to his "No Doubt" and "Plenty" home runs. A lot of his shallow fly balls are just clearing the fence. This isn't real power, and over time is likely to correct itself, causing that player's home run rate to decrease.

Now let's say a player is hitting a ton of "No Doubt" home runs and not very many "Just Enough" home runs. He clearly has good power, he just isn't getting some of those shallower fly balls to clear the fence. It's likely many of them are getting caught on the warning track. This should also correct itself over time, increasing the player's home run rate.

Flaws I see in the system

Now that we understand this system, I'll go over my problems with it. Again, my problems are not in the logic behind it, but rather in the implementation of it. Consider this example.

Magglio Ordonez’s home run on 7/15/07 against Jake Woods at Safeco Field. It was marked as “Just Enough/Lucky,” yet I don’t really think that this label fits. True, the home run might fall into the Just Enough/Lucky qualification, but it still traveled a true distance of 418 feet. That shows good power.

It could be argued that Ordonez was actually unlucky for hitting that ball against Jake Woods at Safeco Field. Had he hit it in another park, say Fenway (let’s pretend for a second that Magglio is on the Red Sox and he played in Safeco against Jake Woods on 7/15/07), it would probably have been labeled as a Plenty or a No Doubter since the Fenway fence distance at the point of Magglio’s HR is roughly 390 feet.

Again, while I think the logic behind the Just Enough/Plenty/No Doubt is great, I think there may be a problem with its implementation. It doesn’t really serve the purpose most people will want to get out of it… to evaluate the validity of certain batters’ power.

Hypothetically, if Magglio had hit every home run in Safeco Field (now let’s pretend he’s a Mariner) to exactly that same spot, while his real power would be pretty good (hitting the ball 418 feet each time), every time it would still be marked as "lucky". That just doesn't seem too fair to me. If Magglio is hitting every home run 418 feet, I'm going to expect him to start hitting some shallower ones when he plays in friendlier parks (and even some around 405 feet when he plays in Safeco).

Now, I certainly realize that ballparks have an effect on home runs and should definitely be used in HitTracker evaluations. I just feel like they aren’t being utilized properly at the present time — not for what we're looking for anyway. A home run, hit exactly the same distance to exactly same part of the field can, theoretically, be a "No Doubt" in one park and a "Just Enough" in another park. That, essentially, is what we need to find a way to correct.

One idea

While I have been meaning to put some thought into this, I just haven't had a lot of time to do it. Here is what I've just come up, although I am sure there would be a better way doing it.

Run the home run numbers for every player on the player’s home park and also on a park with league average dimensions. That way, combined, we could tell how many home runs a player should reasonably be expected to hit, since the circumstances of the home runs are essentially out of his control.

Of course, there is still the matter of the pitcher. Kevin Kouzmanoff hit a home run off of Jeff Francis on August 14. Kouzmanoff would have never faced Francis at a park close to league average, as Coors and Petco are both probably more spacious than a league average park.

So then you might say to run each home run at the hitter's home park and the home park of the pitcher he hit it off of. If we do this, though, we are still feeding into circumstance. Kevin Kouzmanoff had the ability to hit that home run 417 true feet all along. It just so happened that he hit it against Jeff Francis in Petco. Regardless of the ability of the pitcher, the hitter still hit the ball far.

This seems like a murky subject.

Closing thoughts

Again, I'd like to extend an enormous thank you to Greg Rybarczyk for creating HitTracker. I can't put into words how highly I think of HitTracker and the endless possibilities it presents.

Also, please know that my idea above is a very rough idea that I just came up with. I am absolutely open to any ideas you might have for creating a better system than I currently am using, and when I get some free time I will brainstorm new ideas as well. I just wanted to let you know the direction I'm trying to go with it.

With Greg allowing us to download the HitTracker program (another big thanks to Greg!), once I come up with a system, I don't think it will be difficult to use it for our purposes. I haven't taken much more than a glance at it yet, but this quote from the HitTracker download page makes me believe that we could plug the numbers given on the HitTracker website into it and have it spit out the numbers we want.

"If you've ever wondered how Hit Tracker works, or wanted to see how far a home run in one stadium would have gone in another, or just wanted to check for yourself how far a long homer went, now's your chance."

Again, if you have any ideas, feel free to comment. HitTracker has enormous potential, and if we are using a system here, in conjunction with it, that is not used anywhere else, you will have an enormous advantage going into the 2008 season.

Posted by Derek Carty at 6:16pm (0) Comments

Friday, September 07, 2007

Waiver Wire: American League

Just three weeks left in the season. The September call-ups have arrived, and we're winding down the season. If your team is still in it but you're looking for some help, consider some of these guys. The Waiver Wire columns probably won't be very big for the next few weeks as we've really covered most of the guys worth owning already. If you have a question about a specific guy or think I've missed someone, though, feel free to let me know.

Matt Stairs | TOR | 1B/OF - How does a man with a .309 batting average and 19 home runs go unowned in all but 1.9% of fantasy leagues? The .320 BABIP will likely drop a little, but it could still stay around .300 due to his 10% walk rate and 18.4% line drive rate. With an adjustment to a .295 BABIP, his batting average would drop to just .290: still very usable. Of his 19 home runs, nine have gone for over 400 true feet, according to HitTracker, and three fell just short (over 395 feet). He's getting semi-regular at-bats and the power is there, so he could be a decent option for you.
Recommendation - Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Clay Buchholz | BOS | RP - Probably won't get any more starts this year for Boston, even if he deserves some. As a reliever he will still help the Red Sox a bit, but not very many fantasy teams.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 14-team AL-only leagues.

Jacoby Ellsbury | BOS | OF - The 2 big league home runs so far are misleading; he only had 2 in 359 Triple A at-bats this year. He makes contact at a good rate though, knows how to draw a walk, and hit a decent amount of line drives in Triple A. Could manage a .275 batting average and a pretty good number of runs with his walk rate and Boston's lineup. He also has good speed, so expect a few stolen bases, too. Just don't bank on power numbers. When Manny Ramirez comes back, he could lose some playing time.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues, for now.

Andrew Sonnanstine | TB | SP - After some sub-par starts following the hot start to his big league career, Sonnanstine has bounced back and now put up four excellent games in a row. Here are the lines, in the format of IP/K/BB: 5/5/0, 5/7/2, 8/5/0, 6/6/0. You all know how much I liked him earlier in the year, so he might be worth a pickup if he can keep up these kind of peripherals. Be careful though: the Devil Rays defense is awful and will hurt his numbers considerably.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Gary Sheffield | DET | OF - Doesn't need to be said, but if Sheff was dropped in your league, pick him up. When he plays, he's great.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Garret Anderson | LAA | OF - Anderson has quietly had a very nice second half after missing time in the first. His 87% contact, 9% walk, and 20% line drives rates are quite good, as is his 16% HR/FB. All but 3 of his 14 home runs HitTracker has data on have come in the second half, although just four have gone for over 400 feet. That means his HR/FB might come down a bit, but with a 11% HR/FB and .305 BABIP his second half batting average would still be a very solid .295. That, combined with batting cleanup, a good surrounding offense, and plenty of playing time, Anderson should also help out with RBIs and a little bit with runs.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Posted by Derek Carty at 6:07pm (0) Comments

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Waiver Wire: National League

Orlando Hudson | ARZ | 2B - Hudson will have season-ending surgery on Monday to fix the torn ligament in his left thumb. Was a Top 15 second baseman this year, so he will be missed by a few fantasy teams.
Recommendations - Can be safely dropped in all redraft leagues.

Alberto Callaspo | ARZ | 2B/3B/SS/OF - Hudson's replacement doesn't have second base-eligibility in all leagues yet, but he is plenty versatile. This probably won't help much, though, due to his lack of power and speed. His contact skills aren't entirely there yet either, although they have plenty of room to get better in the future. 91% contact rate is amazing and his .226 BABIP will improve. 6% walk rate is only decent, but it was 11% in AAA this year and 10% in AAA last year, so it has room to improve as well. His 18% line drive rate is also good. With his lack of power, though, a .280 BABIP would leave his batting average at just .256 for this year. Probably won't get a good spot in the lineup, so he really doesn't figure to help in any categories.
Recommendations - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep NL-only leagues.

Rick Ankiel | STL | OF - I'm sure you've all heard the recent news about Ankiel by now. From a fantasy perspective, I don't think it hurts his value at all. First, HGH is different than steroids. Second, he allegedly took it back in 2004. Third, it wasn't banned in 2004. Fourth, even if he is still taking it, Major League Baseball doesn't test for it. That means, for the next three at weeks — at the very least — his skill level really shouldn't drop off at all.

In fantasy, you need to keep your personal feelings about whatever is going on with a player out of the equation, and evaluate the situation completely objectively. When you do that here, you see that Ankiel has hit 5 of 9 home runs past 400 true feet (though none past 403, according to HitTracker), has a 10% walk rate, 21% line drive rate, and a .303 batting average when you adjust his BABIP to .305. His 28.1% HR/FB is still a little high, so if we move it down to 22%, Ankiel gets a .287 batting average.

With Juan Encarnacion out for the year, Ankiel will likely play full-time, batting second, and racking up the runs. His good power will also help with RBIs, making Ankiel a decent four-category player. A quick note: he only has 85 at-bats so far in the majors, so a regression is possible as that is a relatively small sample size.
Recommendations - Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Joey Votto | CIN | 1B - First home run: 430 true feet. Triple A HR/FB was only 15%, though, so don't expect him to hit 10 homers this month. Still, he could hit 5 if he gets some playing time, which it seems like he will. It'll be tough for the Reds to sit Scott Hatteberg, but Votto is likely better. However, you can never really trust the Reds to make the right decision, so we'll have to see what they do.

Still, Votto had a 23% line drive, 12% walk, and 78% contact rate in Triple A and could hit .280-.285. Put him in a good spot in the lineup (which, again, you can't count on the Reds doing) and he could be a very effective fantasy player. Know the best part? He stole 23 bases in AA last year and 17 in AAA this year. Steals are typically rare from a first baseman, and Votto could help you make up a little ground there.
Recommendations - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team all NL-only leagues.

Steve Trachsel | CHC | SP - I thought I already talked about Trachsel, but looking back it seems like I haven't. Here's what you need to know: he has been absolutely terrible this year. I have no idea how he still has a job. I'd have to think every team in baseball has a pitcher in the minors who could post better than an 0.69 K/BB with a below average xGB%. I like Trachsel, as a fan, but as a fantasy player he's just not helpful. Know what his LIPS ERA was in 25 starts as an Oriole? 6.38. That's good for dead last in baseball among guys with at least 8 starts. Stay far away in all leagues.
Recommendations - Should be avoided in all leagues.

Carlos Villanueva | MIL | SP - 4.00 LIPS ERA in 52 games this year, but just two of them have been starts. He will likely start the rest of the month, though, giving him some value. His problem has been his control (4.06 BB/9). His 8.32 K/9 will come down as a starter and will likely still be good, but he'll have to improve the walks to be a effective. Showed excellent control last year (1.84 BB/9), but the 5.08 BB/9 since the All-Star break is worrisome. Might be able to pick up a couple of wins with a somewhat solid ERA and WHIP if he can figure things out.
Recommendations - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team all NL-only leagues.

Kevin Correia | SF | SP - Has won 3 of his 4 starts, but don't expect that to continue with the Giants offense backing him. Also, a 4.46 LIPS ERA (in 51 relief appearances and 4 starts) isn't exactly going to help him. Not a great option.
Recommendations - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned only in very deep NL-only leagues.

Mark Mulder | STL | SP - Back from injury, but Mulder probably isn't a good bet. From Rick Wilton, writer of the Baseball Injury Report:

The track record of pitchers getting out of the gate quickly after undergoing rotator cuff surgery is bleak. While he may show some flashes of his former self, typically recovering pitchers need more than three or four rehab starts to regain their control, command and confidence. Mulder will not be any different.

I know that I said Pedro could do well coming off rotator cuff surgery, but Mark Mulder is no Pedro Martinez. Never was. Even if he came back and pitched as well as he has the past few years, it still wouldn't be very good. He hasn't had a K/BB over 1.69 since 2003, and it's been getting worse each year since.
Recommendations - Should be avoided in all leagues.

Posted by Derek Carty at 7:30pm (0) Comments

Sunday, September 09, 2007

First look at lucky RBIs

While clutch hitting is still a temperamental subject, it is relatively accepted now that it doesn't really exist... or at least only to a small degree. Tangotiger penned an interesting article on this subject and found that from 1999-2002, the extent of clutch hitting was 2 runs per year by Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada.

Now that that's out of the way, let's see how we can use this. I thought, to start on this subject, we'll look at batting average with runners in scoring position. Similar to what we did with LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP, we'll look at batting average with runners in scoring position compared with regular batting average.

What this should tell us is which batters have been getting more RBIs than they are entitled to. If a hitter is batting higher with runners on second or third than they do normally, that batting average should be expected to regress to his typical batting average. When this happens, less runners will be scoring when said batter comes to the plate and that batter's RBI rate will decrease accordingly.

This, of course, is by no means a perfect metric. Batting average in itself is flawed, but I still thought it might be interesting to look at the results. In the future, once I can establish a good expected batting average metric (which will be partially dependent on the creation of a good system for home runs, which I will be working on over the next few weeks), this tool will be much more effective.

For now, let's just see what we come up with.

Lucky RBIs

Qualification: Batters need to have at least 300 at-bats, at least 70 at-bats with runners in scoring position, and a BA w/ RISP - BA greater than 0.40.

LAST	FIRST	TEAM	H	AB	BA	H_RISP	AB_RISP	BARISP	BARISP-BA	HR	RBI
Bard	Josh	Padres	87	329	0.264	37	90	0.411	0.147	3	43
Garciaparra	Nomar	Dodgers	111	401	0.277	40	100	0.400	0.123	6	57
Hernandez	Ramon	Orioles	74	309	0.239	30	83	0.361	0.122	8	55
Willingham	Josh	Marlins	131	484	0.271	46	128	0.359	0.088	21	87
Sosa	Sammy	Rangers	95	382	0.249	40	124	0.323	0.074	18	79
Hart	Corey	Brewers	123	423	0.291	34	94	0.362	0.071	20	68
Young	Delmon	Devil Rays	166	564	0.294	55	151	0.364	0.070	12	81
Feliz	Pedro	Giants	125	492	0.254	37	116	0.319	0.065	18	65
Jones	Jacque	Cubs	105	395	0.266	37	112	0.330	0.064	5	54
Inge	Brandon	Tigers	108	446	0.242	33	108	0.306	0.064	14	64
Thome	Jim	White Sox	101	374	0.270	28	84	0.333	0.063	25	79
Brown	Emil	Royals	81	328	0.247	34	110	0.309	0.062	6	57
Encarnacion	Edwin	Reds	124	433	0.286	41	118	0.347	0.061	11	62
Ordonez	Magglio	Tigers	187	528	0.354	70	169	0.414	0.060	26	123
Hill	Aaron	Blue Jays	143	528	0.271	46	140	0.329	0.058	14	70
Molina	Bengie	Giants	123	440	0.280	46	136	0.338	0.058	17	77
Betancourt	Yuniesky	Mariners	136	482	0.282	42	124	0.339	0.057	9	57
Nady	Xavier	Pirates	108	375	0.288	34	99	0.343	0.055	17	65
Francoeur	Jeff	Braves	167	567	0.295	56	160	0.350	0.055	17	91
Teahen	Mark	Royals	136	475	0.286	43	127	0.339	0.053	6	54
Martinez	Victor	Indians	154	504	0.306	47	132	0.356	0.050	21	101
Young	Michael	Rangers	173	562	0.308	55	154	0.357	0.049	7	73
Fields	Josh	White Sox	74	312	0.237	23	81	0.284	0.047	18	56
DeRosa	Mark	Cubs	125	431	0.290	40	119	0.336	0.046	8	65
Mauer	Joe	Twins	106	360	0.294	33	97	0.340	0.046	5	53
Lugo	Julio	Red Sox	122	510	0.239	40	141	0.284	0.045	6	67
Lee	Derrek	Cubs	154	493	0.312	47	132	0.356	0.044	17	73
Upton	BJ	Devil Rays	127	405	0.314	39	109	0.358	0.044	23	76
Jeter	Derek	Yankees	179	563	0.318	46	127	0.362	0.044	9	62
German	Esteban	Royals	84	313	0.268	27	87	0.310	0.042	3	34

Unlucky RBIs

Qualification: Batters need to have at least 300 at-bats, at least 70 at-bats with runners in scoring position, and a BA w/ RISP - BA less than -0.40.

LAST	FIRST	TEAM	H	AB	BA	H_RISP	AB_RISP	BARISP	BARISP-BA	HR	RBI
Iwamura	Akinori	Devil Rays	118	414	0.285	11	70	0.157	-0.128	7	27
Amezaga	Alfredo	Marlins	100	377	0.265	13	85	0.153	-0.112	2	28
Blake	Casey	Indians	142	530	0.268	27	145	0.186	-0.082	15	66
Ausmus	Brad	Astros	76	329	0.231	14	90	0.156	-0.075	3	24
Lofton	Kenny	Rangers	96	317	0.303	13	57	0.228	-0.075	7	23
Weeks	Rickie	Brewers	77	333	0.231	14	86	0.163	-0.068	7	23
Eckstein	David	Cardinals	111	376	0.295	18	78	0.231	-0.064	2	26
Young	Chris	Diamondbacks	119	500	0.238	17	95	0.179	-0.059	28	58
Diaz	Matt	Braves	106	308	0.344	22	77	0.286	-0.058	12	42
Pierre	Juan	Dodgers	172	590	0.292	30	128	0.234	-0.058	0	36
Posada	Jorge	Yankees	150	449	0.334	40	143	0.280	-0.054	19	82
Jackson	Conor	Diamondbacks	106	380	0.279	21	93	0.226	-0.053	13	51
Wigginton	Ty	Devil Rays	104	378	0.275	24	108	0.222	-0.053	16	49
Uribe	Juan	White Sox	101	444	0.227	17	97	0.175	-0.052	16	55
Beltre	Adrian	Mariners	140	499	0.281	31	135	0.230	-0.051	23	86
Garko	Ryan	Indians	123	421	0.292	27	112	0.241	-0.051	16	52
Granderson	Curtis	Tigers	164	549	0.299	28	113	0.248	-0.051	20	68
Pedroia	Dustin	Red Sox	144	447	0.322	29	107	0.271	-0.051	6	45
Castillo	Luis	Twins	106	349	0.304	16	63	0.254	-0.050	0	18
Hafner	Travis	Indians	123	479	0.257	28	134	0.209	-0.048	21	87
Schneider	Brian	Nationals	84	365	0.230	18	99	0.182	-0.048	6	46
Ellis	Mark	Athletics	134	507	0.264	31	143	0.217	-0.047	17	60
Torrealba	Yorvit	Rockies	86	339	0.254	24	116	0.207	-0.047	6	39
Estrada	Johnny	Brewers	115	410	0.280	26	110	0.236	-0.044	8	44
Uggla	Dan	Marlins	136	559	0.243	31	155	0.200	-0.043	28	79
Johjima	Kenji	Mariners	125	431	0.290	31	125	0.248	-0.042	14	56
Jones	Chipper	Braves	149	452	0.330	37	128	0.289	-0.041	24	85
Matsui	Hideki	Yankees	142	487	0.292	36	143	0.252	-0.040	23	91

Concluding thoughts

And that's that. Again, once we can come up with an awesome system for home runs, we should be able to calculate this with much more certainty. For now, I just thought this would be a fun exercise. If you're going to try and use them immediately, make sure to carefully check the numbers.

There is no way Akinori Iwamura should only be batting .157 with batters in scoring position, and there is no way Delmon Young should be up at .364. The .286 batting average with runners in scoring position for a guy like Matt Diaz, though, is much closer to what is should be. He is only on the list because his actual batting average is .344 — completely unsustainable.

So be careful and these numbers can be pretty helpful. If nothing else, they are interesting and should lead to some interesting analysis down the line.

Posted by Derek Carty at 7:45pm (0) Comments

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

A post mortem on a head to head league draft strategy

Since most head to head leagues are in the playoffs this is a good time for a post mortem to address draft strategies and how the can be executed or flubbed. Here is a comparison of two draft strategies.

A co-contributor to my blog at The Fantasy Baseball Generals and I compete in a head to head mixed league. He and I had somewhat different draft strategies, but ended up in a virtual tie for the points championship in our mixed league. I was winning until the penultimate day of the year, and lost the overall points title (but not the head to head championship thankfully!) by less than 30 points out of 7300 total.

My co-contributor (Matt) won the overall points total championship (the actual league championship is in the playoffs), and we finished one-two overall in the league by record also so we both have byes in the first round. We both had different draft strategies as I will discuss below.

The mixed league we are in started three years ago. In year one Matt again won the points title and I won the overall championship. This year it is very similar. Sadly, my team floundered last year as my ill-fated draft of Randy Johnson in an early round sealed my fate. If only I had someone who could go back in time and help me.

Which brings me to this post. Generally, most owners in the league draft pitchers in the first five rounds and many draft four or five pitchers in the first ten. I eschewed that strategy this year for an all hitting strategy in the first five rounds (I went with two pitchers in the first three rounds last year and got hammered), and only drafted one pitcher in the first seven. Matt went with two pitchers in the first six rounds and three in the first seven. This is as many as can be taken in the first seven rounds without being reckless. Teams that draft more than this almost never win a league, or at least the one I have been in during my 20 years of fantasy baseball, and their best finish is usually as a playoff team and no better. Here are our picks in the first ten rounds:

Round Matt Pat
1 Alfonso Soriano Chase Utley
2 Lance Berkman Vladimir Guerrero
3 Jimmy Rollins Garrett Atkins
4 Josh Beckett Hanley Ramirez
5 Jermaine Dye Prince Fielder
6 Matt Cain CC Sabathia
7 Chris Young Curtis Granderson
8 AJ Burnett BJ Ryan
9 Billy Wagner Dave Bush
10 Rickie Weeks Jim Thome

What can be gleaned from this? The first thing that jumps out at me is the fact that many believe that you have to be lucky in drafting to win these head-to-head leagues. I have heard this sentiment many times, and there is some truth to it. You can win if you get lucky. But you don't have to get lucky to win. We both had some bad luck and clearly we both flubbed a few picks.

Matt had five picks out of ten that are arguably/definitely flubs, at least in terms of where they were drafted: Cain, Dye, Soriano, Weeks and Berkman. I was marginally better. I flubbed Atkins, Thome, Bush, Ryan. At least Ryan flubbed because of injury. Getting Fielder and Hanley Ramirez softened the blow. Not quite as much as a rollicking threesome with Yunjin Kim and Evangeline Lilly, but it's close.

Where my strategy paid dividends was in the next few rounds. Here are my picks in rounds 11-15:

Round 11: Kelvim Escobar
Round 12: Javier Vazquez
Round 13: Ryan Freel
Round 14: Ian Snell
Round 15: Brad Lidge.

Freel and Lidge were OK and not great picks but can be excused at this stage of a fantasy draft. After all Lidge was not in the top 170 picks. He hasn't been worthless however. I was counting on getting a few undervalued pitchers in these rounds and that strategy worked like a charm. Escobar has been a Cy Young candidate and Vazquez and Snell have both been very solid, Vazquez more so.

Snell has generated 448 points and Vazquez 531. As a comparison:

Pitcher Round Points
Roy Oswalt 3 548
Carlos Zambrano 3 491
Daisuke Matsuzaka 4 527
Felix Hernandez 4 409
Ben Sheets 4 406
John Smoltz 5 546
Matt Cain 6 436
Jered Weaver 6 363
Scott Kazmir 7 499
Curt Schilling 7 316
Barry Zito 7 379
Dontrelle Willis 7 319

My entire draft strategy this year was based on targeting guys who had pitched better than their actual earned run averages showed last year. Every pitcher that I drafted, save none, fit this criteria when comparing actual era with various expected era metrics. This is a strategy that will usually work well in mixed leagues. Many of the owners won't have this information so it is of tremendous value. It not only opens your eyes to hidden gems like Vazquez but also allows you to get value out of those later round picks. Only 16 players are active each week so these rounds are away to fill out your starters with guys who have great potential.

Part two of my strategy was to draft nothing but pitchers after the 16th round (namely after my active roster was filled).

My picks in these rounds: Adam Loewen, James Shields, Jose Valverde, Claudio Vargas, Zack Greinke and Shawn Hill. I did waste a pick on one of my formerly favorite players, Carlos Quentin. Shields and Valverde have been tremendous, the rest mediocre to injured. Greinke was cut long ago.

This strategy depends on a few key principles:

1. Pitching can always be found in later rounds. But...
2. You must do the work to find them. Judgment and experience matter more than having the stats. There are probably a hundred pitchers who fit my criteria. Choosing the right ones is a matter of hard work, judgment and experience.
3. Always draft hitters in the first five rounds. This is a good way to mitigate risk. A lesson I learned last year in spades.

What can you expect with these strategies? Matt's pitching heavy(ier) strategy yielded 5 weeks where he scored the most points in the league. I only had one such week. On the other hand, the hitting strategy will yield a much more consistent scoring distribution. In a head to head league this is important since you will be in contention for a win every week if you have the right hitters. These hitters essentially allow you to bank a certain amount of points that will always be higher than your opponents' in the long run, assuming you choose the right hitters of course!

As you can see, both strategies work. This is true in fantasy baseball in many instances. There are a few different strategies that can work. Proper execution of them is the key. You needn't be perfect, just better than most of the others in your league in your selections. This is just for the draft of course; roster management during the season is just as crucial. Both Matt and I were able to cover some bad draft picks by effective roster management. For example, when B.J. Ryan got hurt I picked up Al Reyes on the free agent wire, and in early May jettisoned Atkins for Ryan Zimmerman.

My foray into a pitching heavy strategy last year, with a seventh place finish was and is a good lesson for me. The pitching strategy can work if things go right but there is a lot more risk involved. You will have more huge point weeks than with a hitting strategy since those weeks where your aces get two starts will rack up the points.

Posted by Patrick DiCaprio at 7:35am (0) Comments

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Alex Rodriguez: 2008 Value

Before I start, I'd like to apologize for not posting the past few days. It has been an absolutely crazy week, and I'm exhausted even as I'm typing this. Hopefully things will calm down soon.

As for some good news, I've been talking with Greg Rybarczyk about constructing a home run system revolving around HitTracker, which I talked a little about the other day. Also, I have been thinking about stolen bases over the past couple of days, which is something I haven't talked much about this year. Look for a post on that maybe Sunday.

Alex Rodriguez: 2008 Yankee?

Moving on. I've been getting some questions lately regarding the 2008 value of Alex Rodriguez. With so many Yankee fans — and much of the media — hating on Alex Rodriguez, many are wondering what his value will be in 2008. What if the Yankees decide to ditch Alex, and he signs with a crappy team willing to shell out some money, similar to what Barry Zito did last off-season in signing with the Giants? Here's my take on it.

As a Mets fan, I would love nothing more than to see the Yankees part ways with Alex Rodriguez and have Omar Minaya swoop in and sign A-Rod to play second base for us. In fact, I am actually tempted to buy one of these. One, it would be funny to see how many Yankees fans come up to me and pat me on the back, and two, because I would love the irony of it.

Why the answer to the previous questions is "YES"

All pipe dreams aside, I don't see the Yankees letting Alex Rodriguez go. If you're interested in why Yankees fan are wrong in thinking they would be better off without him, read the post entitled "Buckle Up, Everyone" on FireJoeMorgan.com about a quarter of the way down the page. It's from July, but most of it is still relevant.

Alex Rodriguez is currently leading baseball in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) with 93.7 runs. His closest competitors? Hanley Ramirez with 83.9 runs and Magglio Ordonez with 78.8 runs. Basically, he's good.

With a replacement level player in his spot (as many genius Yankees fans are suggesting because they want to spend all of A-Rod's money on elite young pitchers, because there are plenty of those on the open market every winter), the Yankees offense would have scored 93.7 less runs. That's a lot of runs. They would be 81-65 without him (according to Bill James' Pythagorean expectation formula), which doesn't look like much in light of the Yankees' current 83-63 record, but when you consider that their current, Pythagorean adjusted formula is 89-57, it's much more apparent that A-Rod is important.

One player, single handedly, has been worth 8 wins this year above what a replacement could do. That's just crazy. In many years, for many teams, 8 wins is the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs.

Brian Cashman, ladies and gentleman, is no dummy. He has seen these numbers and he knows how good Alex Rodriguez is. There is very little chance he will let him go. The only way I see A-Rod leaving the Yankees is if he decides he wants out... if he decides that he's had enough of being the best player in baseball and constantly being slammed by the media and fans. If that doesn't happen, we will most likely see him in pinstripes for the next few years.

A-Rod's Fantasy Contributions

So how good is A-Rod, fantasy-wise? Well, pretty darn good.

Many people are surprised that A-Rod was able to rebound from a 35 home run 2006 to the tune of 52 home runs (so far) this year. He hasn't put up a total that high since he hit 57 with the Rangers in 2004 when he set the single-season record for home runs by a shortstop. Still, if we inspected his HitTracker data from last year, we would have seen how few short home runs he hit (just 9 of his 35 went less than 400 true feet and 4 went less than 390 true feet) and realized that he was probably in for a power spike. His power has still been great this year; it just looks better because it has been adjusted to portray his true power levels. Continue to expect excellent power going forward.

A-Rod is batting .317 after his average had dipped to .290 last year. This looks pretty legit to me. His .310 BABIP is his lowest since 2003, and his career BABIP is .326. This could be do to his line drive percentage of just 16.5%, but it was lower than that in 2004 and 2005 when he had BABIPs of .313 and .349, respectively. The extra home runs make up for this, though, as his Batting Average on Contact is a very good .347. His contact rate is improved from the past few years, sitting now just above 80%. This could regress a little bit, but with his current power skills and an improved BABIP, A-Rod should still be able to hit .300 next year.

22 steals with an 88% success rate is quite good, especially from a third baseman. We'll talk more about steals and speed another day, but for now, you just need to know that A-Rod gets a little extra value from being able to steal these bases.

The thing most readers were worried about was his RBI and run numbers for next year. Fear not; Alex Rodriguez will be fine with both. Even if he went to a terrible team he would still do pretty well. 55 home runs is a guaranteed 55 RBIs plus however many batters are on base for these home runs. He would only need a modest number of RBIs from other sources (singles, doubles, sac flies, etc.) to get over 100 RBIs. As I expect him to stay with the Yankees, though, that number should be much higher than 100.

He also wouldn't have much trouble scoring runs on a poor team, again, because he would automatically get 55 or so from home runs. Also, his walk rate is 14% this year. When you combine that with a .300 batting average, he would have to score runs just based on how often he'll be on base. Again, though, this is a moot point. Alex will most likely be a Yankee again next year, meaning he'll score tons of runs in that offense.

Concluding thoughts

Overall, I wouldn't expect much of a regression from A-Rod. He'll probably hit .300 with over 50 home runs, tons of RBIs, tons of Runs, and a bunch of steals as a bonus. He is a true five-category stud. I can't say anything for certain yet, but I'd have to think Alex Rodriguez will be #1 on my draft board next year.

If you're in a keeper league, it might be a good idea to plant some seeds now with A-Rod's owner. Point him to every article from now on where a New York sports writer bashes A-Rod and constantly tell him how A-Rod will be playing for a crappy team next year and his value will take a hit. Try and get him for less than he's worth, because he will be able to seriously help your team next year. Not exactly the boldest statement I've ever made, but really, there is no other conclusion to draw. Alex Rodriguez is flat out good.

On one final, unrelated note, I'd like to apologize to anyone who has has sent me an email over the past couple of weeks that hasn't gotten a reply. Things have just been so crazy that I haven't had the time to give the detailed responses that I like to give.

As of tomorrow, I'll be clearing out my Inbox. If you still would like your question answered, I welcome you to send it again, and it will get answered. As many of these emails were time sensitive, I don't want to put my time in answering all of them now when the answer might already be irrelevant. If your still looking for an answer, though — again — please ask. Thanks everyone for your understanding!

Posted by Derek Carty at 10:03pm (0) Comments

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Waiver Wire: American League

We've reached the point in the year where you're probably better off going for one or two category helpers instead of guys whose overall value is higher. If you're in a position where these overall value guys are still helpful, though, I've got you covered here. Also, check in on previous editions for ideas because many of those guys are still good pickups; I'm just not going to repeat them all every week. With that aside, here's the American League Waiver Wire...

Joaquin Benoit | TEX | CL? - It looks like Benoit might be the guy to own in Texas now, getting the past two save chances. The Rangers haven't produced one of those chances since September 7, though, so it's a bit difficult to tell for sure. I'd probably take Benoit over Wilson right now.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

C.J. Wilson | TEX | CL? - Again, it's a tough situation to judge because the Rangers haven't entered the ninth with a small lead lately, so there haven't been many save chances to go around. Wilson is still worth owning in some leagues, but even if he is splitting time with Benoit now he still likely won't get too many saves over the next couple of weeks.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues, for now.

Vicente Padilla | TEX | SP - Not sure why — given that he has allowed 6 runs in two of his last five starts — but I've been hearing a lot about Padilla lately. 4.79 LIPS ERA, 1.52 DIPS WHIP, and a strikeout rate a point below league average doesn't make him a great choice in most leagues. His numbers have been a little better since his return from the DL, but he still isn't someone to target.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.

Bartolo Colon | LAA | SP - Back from the DL, Colon looks to pick up on the solid first half of the season he put up. 7.04 K/9 will help and his 2.45 K/BB is his best since 2004, but his LIPS ERA is just 4.41. Still, the Angels' offense should give him an opportunity to pick up a couple of wins.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Jason Kubel | MIN | OF - The one-time top prospect has gotten regular at-bats the past week and has been tearing it up for a month and a half now. 82% contact, 9% walk, and 22% line drive rates are all good, and he has shown some decent power too. Has hit 5 of 10 home runs past 400 true feet (according to HitTracker), although the furthest went just 411 true feet.

Still, people are saying that he looks like his former self, circa-2004. Of course this is a little subjective and I'm not sure how reliable these sources are, but it'll be interesting to see if he can put a couple of balls past that 411 mark in the coming weeks. Either way, he makes a decent start if he can keep getting at-bats. Hit 2nd twice and 3rd, 6th, and 8th once each over the past week, so he could be good for some runs and RBIs, without getting a great number of either if that sort of thing keeps up.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 10, 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Daric Barton | OAK | 1B - From Manager Bob Geren: "Daric is going to play. He's going to get as many at-bats as possible before the season ends." Barton was a walks machine in the minors and should also be able to keep a contact rate around 80%, possibly higher. He started hitting tons of line drives once he hit AAA, hitting 24% last year and 21% this year.

The problem with Barton is that he doesn't possess a ton of power. His HR/FB was just 4% last year and 6% this year. He's gotten 19 of his 22 at-bats so far in the number 2 spot, and if that continues Barton could help with runs. Otherwise he'll be limited to helping just a little bit with batting average.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Yorman Bazardo | DET | SP - Will get a start Saturday and could get more if he does well, but I wouldn't want to count on Bazardo for my fantasy team. 5.19 K/9 in Double A last year and 5.00 K/9 in Triple A this year aren't what we'd like to see. Good with ground balls, but if his K/9 drops to 3.00 in the majors it won't matter. Tigers offense might put him in contention for a win or two, but there are better guys for this sort of thing.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in all but the deepest AL-only leagues.

Posted by Derek Carty at 10:00pm (0) Comments

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Saturday, September 01, 2007

Waiver Wire: National League

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

22 players in two weeks? An egregious trade pipeline and collusion

Pedro Martinez: Revisited

Command

Monday's start

Health

Role

Final Outlook

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

HitTracker and future player evaluations

Three types of home runs

Flaws I see in the system

One idea

Closing thoughts

Friday, September 07, 2007

Waiver Wire: American League

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Waiver Wire: National League

Sunday, September 09, 2007

First look at lucky RBIs

Lucky RBIs

Unlucky RBIs

Concluding thoughts

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

A post mortem on a head to head league draft strategy

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Alex Rodriguez: 2008 Value

Alex Rodriguez: 2008 Yankee?

Why the answer to the previous questions is "YES"

A-Rod's Fantasy Contributions

Concluding thoughts

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Waiver Wire: American League