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 Thursday, October 25, 2007Player profile: Tom GorzelannyI'd first like to apologize for how long it's been since my last post. It's been a crazy couple of weeks, and my computer was broken for about a week of it. Things are calming down now, though, and we should be able to get back on track. For those of you who've e-mailed and haven't gotten a response, you should be getting one over the next couple of days. I've received a good number of player requests now, but keep them coming. What I'm going to do is try and make sure that I profile at least one player from everyone's list, and then cycle back through once I get everyone. I'm going to wait on the hitters until I can complete the HitTracker homer system, which hopefully won't take too much longer. Feel free to send in requests for hitters, though; they just won't be done for a bit longer. All that being said, let's look at a pitcher I've gotten a couple of requests for: Tom Gorzelanny. Considered a sleeper by many coming into the year, these owners thought they'd hit the jackpot when he posted a 3.10 first-half ERA. Let's check out his numbers. Numbers
Note: Minor league stats came from Jeff Sackmann's excellent website MinorLeagueSplits.com. *For minor league numbers, straight ground ball rate is given instead of expected ground ball rate. 2007 seasonIn 2006, Gorzelanny posted a very unexciting 4.62 LIPS ERA. In 2007, he put up a nearly identical 4.59 figure. How he went about doing it, though, was quite different and definitely shows progress for this 25-year old hurler. First, his strikeout rate jumped a bit from 2006 to 2007. Even better is that it was near league-average at 6.53 in the second-half. He has shown the ability to strike batters out in the minors, so this isn't completely unsubstantiated. I don't know if he could keep that up for a full-season, but he is just 25, and this was his first full major league season. A K/9 north of 6.00 seems extremely likely for 2008, with a K/9 around 6.50 somewhat likely. Let's put him down for a 6.35 K/9. His walk rate also made nice strides. His 3.03 mark on the season was better than league average, although it regressed in the second half (3.59 BB/9). His control in the minors wasn't amazing in 2005 or 2006, so I don't know if he'll be able to repeat his first-half mark of 2.65 in 2008. Even his second-half BB/9, though, was better than it was in 2006. Definite improvement. I think a BB/9 around 3.10 for 2008 seems like a pretty good guess. So with an improved strikeout rate and an improved walk rate from 2006 to 2007, why is Gorzelanny's LIPS ERA relatively the same? Check out his expected ground ball rate. It dropped from 48% last year to 41% this year. It was much closer to 48% in the minors, and I'm not aware of a repertoire change between 2006 and 2007 that would cause this drop (let me know if you guys are aware of anything like this), so I think a bounce back is in order for 2008. 2007 Pirate defenseHis ERA and LIPS ERA were quite different this year, so let's see if the defense might have had something to do with it.
It looks the Pirates had a slightly above average defense, although the BABIP is below average. Let's check out the individual players.
Nothing really remarkable here. Adam LaRoche is a below average first baseman, Jose Bautista is terrible defensively, and the middle is decidedly average, with Freddy Sanchez showing poor range and Jack Wilson showing good range. In the outfield, Chris Duffy and Nate McLouth made a formidable tandem in center, with Duffy being an above-average in-zone defender and McLouth succeeding out-of-zone. Both seem to be near their physical prime, so a little improvement shouldn't be considered unexpected next year. The corners weren't nearly as good, although Jason Bay's range is nice to see. In right, Xavier Nady and Ryan Doumit were below average both in and out-of-zone. Doumit hadn't played a lot of outfield before this, so he could improve, but I don't think he'll get too much playing time out there unless they move Nady. Explaining the LIPS ERA to ERA gapThe Pirates defense can't be considered too much better than average, so it doesn't look like this is the reason for the large gap between Gorzelanny's LIPS ERA and ERA. His .311 BABIP seems about right under the circumstances. I think the real explanation for the gap can be found in his left on base percentage and his home run-to-fly ball rate. Both were better than expected, and there is little evidence that either should be that good. His below-average xGB% makes the regression on his HR/FB a bit more severe because of the number of fly balls he gives up. If we look at them in the first-half (79% and 6%, respectively) it becomes even clearer why Gorzelanny looked so good before the All-Star break and so... not good... after. 2008 outlookSo what does all of this say about Gorzelanny for 2008? Well, it says to temper your expectations. He could one day put up a K/9 north of 8.00, but I don't think it's very likely that it will be in 2008. I do see his LIPS ERA falling into the low 4s, especially if his ground ball rate increases. A peripheral line like this (6.35 K/9 | 3.10 BB/9 | 46% xGB%) would allow Gorzelanny to post an ERA around 4.40 and a WHIP between 1.30 and 1.35. He won't really help with strikeouts except in deep leagues. A sub-par Pirates offense won't help with wins either. This could change if they make some moves in the off-season, but there doesn't appear to be too many spots where they will really look to upgrade (maybe third, short, or center) and even if they do, there's no guarantee they'll make good choices. Gorzelanny missed a month at the end of 2006 with tendinitis in his left (throwing) elbow, but he was able to throw over 200 innings in 2007. We'll put him down for 190 in 2008 to account for the risk of the elbow. With that many innings, Gorzelanny could be expected to win maybe 11 games. Closing thoughtsWhile Gorzelanny is a decent pitcher and has the potential to one day be quite good, I feel like he will be overrated in 2008. He's posted major league ERAs under 4.00 two seasons in a row now, and his 2.35 Triple A ERA before that will only further fuel the fire. His higher WHIPs and poor second-half might dissuade some people, but I still think we'll see Gorzelanny cracking the Top 50 or so starters on many lists. He's #54 on CBS's early list. I just don't see Gorzelanny living up to that, though. If we look at the Top 50 performers (with 12 or more starts) of 2007 in LIPS ERA, DIPS WHIP, and K/9, we see that our expected numbers for Gorzelanny in 2008 wouldn't make any of the lists. He might crack the DIPS WHIP list (1.31 was the cut-off), but his LIPS ERA (4.20 cut-off) and K/9 (7.06 cut-off) aren't close enough. You could do worse if he's sitting there at the end of 12-team mixed league draft, but there are likely to be at least a couple of better bets, maybe a Scott Baker or Dave Bush type. Posted by Derek Carty at 5:58pm (0) Comments Tuesday, October 30, 2007A fantasy ethics issueIn the run up to Labor Day I was listening to the MLB.com Fantasy 411 podcast, one of the podcasts that I listen to daily along with ESPN.com's entertaining Fantasy Focus podcast. Someone emailed in with a question about a situation and wanted to know if what was proposed was unethical. Since I have addressed fantasy ethics here in the context of trade discussions in a few posts I thought this was a good topic. Here was the scenario presented: Team A was in second place in a head to head league, in its final week of the regular season. He wanted to play the sixth place team at the time in the first week of the playoffs. But since he is in second place, he would have to play the seventh place team, who he incidentally also happened to be playing in the last week of the regular season. He wanted to know if it was "unethical" to rest his entire team and take a zero for the week. This would guarantee a victory for the seventh place team, who might be able to overtake the current sixth place team. If this happened then he would get his matchup against the current sixth place team in week one of the playoffs. There was apparently nothing in the league rules against this. His argument was that it wasn't really that much different than teams playing out the string with minor leaguers or resting guys for the playoffs in football in week 16 etc. There must be some pretty shady characters out there. It should be obvious that no justification other than "win at all costs" could be a legitimate basis for doing these shenanigans. Only short-sightedness and a complete lack of regard for anything other than one's own fortunes can justify this tactic. Yet, as can plainly be seen, there is no shortage of players trying to "out-lawyer" their league mates, outright collude and baldly cheat if given the chance. Moreover, many players believe that this is OK. In response to my column on the collusive trading in my high stakes league someone emailed me to say that anything that is not against the rules is OK, end of discussion. This attitude is appalling in my opinion. Fantasy baseball should be a fun game, and moves like this take all of the fun out of it. Plus, if you will be in a league with the same owners it will easily end up to your detriment. Owners will not trade with you, will conspire against you, will actively seek to screw you over should the opportunity arise. It has all happened in my high stakes league this year and likely in many other leagues as well. Personally, I make it a point to avoid any allegations of ethical laxity since I think it will be to my disadvantage in the long run, and I never know what may be coming down the pike next year or the year after. If you are in a league for the long term you should think in the long term. The player who posed this question clearly hadn't given much thought to what he was proposing. Firstly, it is hard to imagine that the advantage to be gained is significant if any. If you are the second best team in your league and have to choose between the sixth and seventh place teams it is almost certain that the marginal difference between the two is minimal. Secondly, there is no guarantee it will work. He still needed the sixth place team to lose. On the other side of the calculation are the whole host of factors that augur against this tactic. Much like Faust, you are only cheating yourself when you make a deal with the devil. If the owner above went ahead with this stunt and won the league, it would only matter to him. No one in his league would give him full credit and it would be tainted. Self-satisfaction would have to be its own reward, unless you think that winning a few hundred dollars is worth the enmity and scorn of your league mates. There is no reason to take a "win at all costs" attitude in fantasy baseball. It is a fun game generally played for small stakes and bragging rights. What good is it to win by cheating or by unethical means? Like the golfer whose best wood is his pencil, you are only deluding and cheating yourself. Posted by Patrick DiCaprio at 7:01am (0) Comments Player profile: Aaron HarangI got a request about a week ago for Aaron Harang, and I'm happy to oblige. Harang has flown under the radar a bit for the past couple of years despite very good peripheral numbers. I'm thinking the fantasy world is beginning to catch on, maybe taking away some of Harang's 2008 value, but I'm sure in some leagues he'll still come at a decent price relative to his value. Let's check him out. Numbers
Right off the bat we see an excellent LIPS ERA trend going on. He has had a LIPS ERA better than 4.00 in each of the past four seasons. His DIPS WHIP has improved each year, culminating in a 1.15 mark in 2007. His strikeout rate hovered just below 7.00 in 2004 and 2005 and made the jump above 8.00 in 2006 and 2007. His K/BB has grown each of the four years. The best part of all this? Harang is a workhorse. He's thrown over 200 innings for the past three years, and has been over 230 for the past two years. He's past the part of his career where this type of thing would be a serious red flag for injury, but he's not yet past his prime. He seems to be as safe a bet to not get injured as a pitcher can be. Honestly, what's not to like about Harang? 2007 seasonHarang continued to get better in 2007, improving his LIPS ERA from 3.69 in 2006 to 3.60 in 2007. Both his strikeout and walk rates improved. If we look at the second-half of the season, he was nothing short of dominant. His K/9 went above 9.00, and his BB/9 went below 1.50. His first-half is probably the only thing you could complain about. His strikeout and walk rates were below their 2006 levels, but his K/BB was still a very nice 3.20, and his LIPS ERA was a solid 3.85. I think the biggest knock against Harang is what he can't control... his defense. 2007 Reds defenseThe Reds defense was pretty poor in 2007. Take a look.
They were the second worst team in the National League in RZR, and their range (OOZ) was less than impressive. Let's look at the individual players and see if we can find a bright spot or two.
The middle of the infield looked pretty good in 2007. Brandon Phillips played excellent defense — both in and out-of-zone — at second, and Alex Gonzalez looked good at short. The corners left much to be desired, though. In the outfield, the corners were a problem too. Ken Griffey Jr. was right around league average in-zone but wasn't very good leaving the zone, and Adam Dunn struggled in both areas. Centerfield had an interesting mix. Josh Hamilton was good in-zone but didn't have great range, Ryan Freel wasn't great in-zone but had amazing range, and Norris Hopper was good in-zone and had relatively average range. Overall, it looks like the Reds did have some bright spots, but traded defense for offense in a lot of spots (which isn't bad strategy, it just doesn't help Harang in any category except wins). 2008 defensive outlookThe defense doesn't seem too likely to improve in 2008. Joey Votto will probably take over at first, but we don't have a lot to judge him on. Scouts say his defense is average, or a work in progress. Regardless, he has the potential to be better than Scott Hatteberg and Jeff Conine. He's a converted catcher — though surprisingly athletic — so he figures to improve with experience. The rest of the defense doesn't figure to change, though. They could seek out a new shortstop or consider trading Griffey, but I don't see any holes that desperately need filling. If Griffey is traded, we could see Hamilton shift over to right, which might even be an improvement. Because of the relative stability of the Reds defense, we'll likely see Harang's BABIP rise. It wasn't much below average this year, though, so the correction won't be too severe. The Dusty Baker effectI'm sure many of you are concerned about the recent hiring of Dusty Baker. Baker has a reputation of riding his pitchers pretty hard, which is generally associated with injuries. David Gassko penned an interesting article last year that seems to disprove this notion. David found that "[Baker] only leaves his starters out there for about three-and-a-half more pitches than expected." This doesn't scream overuse to me. Even if you're not convinced, consider how many innings Harang threw in 2006 and 2007. How many more innings would you really expect a madman, like fictionalized-Dusty, to force Harang to throw? You think he's pushing him up around 250? I don't. 2008 outlookHarang looks like a very good bet in 2008. I think an 8.50 K/9 and a 2.05 BB/9 seem about right. He's more of a fly ball pitcher, but he should still be able to post an ERA around 3.60 and a WHIP around 1.15, similar to this year. He could certainly do better if he leans more towards his 2007 second-half numbers, but I wouldn't call that the most likely scenario. As we've said, he seems like a pretty safe bet injury-wise, and the high number of innings coupled with his nice strikeout rate should give him plenty of value in the strikeout category. He should also help out with wins too. He starts plenty of games and has a decent offense supporting him. His total of 16 from 2007 seems repeatable. Concluding thoughtsI think there is a definite chance Harang could crack my top 10 list of starting pitchers for 2008, although I can't say with any certainty until I project everyone. CBS has him ranked #13, so there might not be a lot of wiggle room to get solid value out of him. We'll have to see how his market value adjusts as we get closer to the season, but I think Harang is bound to fall to at least #20 in some weaker leagues. In drafts and auctions, we'll probably have to take a wait-and-see approach with him. He could become overvalued, or he could be undervalued. There is unlikely to be a consensus with a guy like Harang, so be flexible with your plan, and if the opportunity presents itself, you could get nice value out of him. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||