THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Derek Carty at 10:00pm (0) Comments

Saturday, January 05, 2008

Mitchell Report fallout: Fantasy ramificiations (Part 1)

I know that this is coming a little late, but I've had the majority of it completed for a while now and didn't want to ignore just because the buzz has died down a bit. It's still relevant, so, with that said, here is my opinion on the Mitchell Report and how it should affect your fantasy baseball decision making.

Advantages

Sometimes the biggest advantages in fantasy baseball can be attained simply because your opponents don't do their homework. One such opportunity has presented itself this off-season. As I'm sure you've heard, last month, Senator George Mitchell released a "report to the commissioner of baseball of an independent investigation into the illegal use of steroids and other performance enhancing substances by players in Major League Baseball." The subject of PEDs is a very complex one, but I'm going to try and simplify it as best I can for the sake of this article.

Players

To lazy fantasy owners, the Mitchell Report has provided a list of players that are either very risky going forward or should be avoided all-together. To those that do their homework, this could be an excellent opportunity. Below is a list of the players listed in the Mitchell Report who are currently playing and are viable options in fantasy baseball:

Rick Ankiel
Barry Bonds
Paul Byrd
Roger Clemens
Jack Cust
Brendan Donnelly
Eric Gagne
Jason Giambi
Jay Gibbons
Troy Glaus
Jose Guillen
Jerry Hairston Jr.
Matt Herges
Paul Lo Duca
Nook Logan
Gary Matthews Jr.
Andy Pettitte
Brian Roberts
Scott Shoeneweis
Mike Stanton
Miguel Tejada
Derrick Turnbow
Ron Villone
Rondell White
Gregg Zaun

The steroid stigma

When fantasy owners see this list, they start thinking about all the reasons not to take these players. Aside from the overall negative impression being on this list creates, here are some reasons that I’ve heard owners cite for leaving them off their cheat sheets:

1) Morality
2) Higher risk of a performance drop-off
3) Possible suspensions
4) Possible legal trouble which would result in loss of playing time
5) Higher risk of injury

Morality

Hopefully this doesn't apply to any of you, but I know that some fantasy players won't draft a player who they deem to have shaky ethics. This could include a guy like Elijah Dukes who gets into legal trouble with women or Milton Bradley who is famous for his on-field charades. Or, it could include a guy like Barry Bonds who allegedly has taken steroids.

I'd like to share a quick story about this. One THT Fantasy Focus reader, at the beginning of the 2007 season, told me that he nominated Barry Bonds for $1 at his league's auction as a smokescreen. He didn't actually want Bonds, but the rest of his league refused to bid anything for Bonds because of his steroid issues. This reader ended up getting Bonds and his very good fantasy season for just $1. This is obviously an extreme example, but these are the kind of opportunities that we need to capitalize on.

While I am absolutely against steroids, a player's use of them (especially if it is only alleged use) should not dissuade you from taking him. It's not like you're choosing this person to be your new best friend. You are taking him for your fantasy team, and if he can put up good numbers for you, then that should be all that matters. If he can help you win, he needs to be considered. Case closed.

Performance drop-off

MLB banned anabolic steroids in 2002. Any players who once used steroids have since stopped and have developed new statistical baselines or left baseball entirely. Anabolic steroids were banned long enough ago where we really don't need to worry about it.

We must also keep in mind, though, that many of the players are accused of taking HGH, not anabolic steroids. MLB Commissioner Bud Selig said that “players who are set on cheating have apparently moved from steroids to HGH.”

While I in no way condone the use of HGH, the fact of that matter is that there is currently no urine test that can detect the use of it. Unless they switch over to blood testing (which can detect HGH, if I'm not mistaken) or develop a method of detecting HGH in urine, players who have been using it will likely continue to use it. There's also no proof that HGH improves performance to begin with, anyway.

This means that we can continue to evaluate these players using the same baselines that they’ve developed over the past couple of years. The main problem with players who stop using anabolic steroids is that once they stop, their production is expected to drop off. With HGH, that problem likely won't exist in 2008. If players are continuing to use HGH (or, if by some odd chance, anabolic steroids), the risk of a drop-off isn’t existent, even if the level they are at is unnaturally high to begin with.

Suspensions

Here is what Senator Mitchell had to say about suspending the players mentioned:

I urge the Commissioner to forego imposing discipline on players for past violations of baseball’s rules on performance enhancing substances, including the players named in this report, except in those cases where he determines that the conduct is so serious that discipline is necessary to maintain the integrity of the game. I make this recommendation fully aware that there are valid arguments both for and against it; but I believe that those in favor are compelling.

Following the presentation of the report, Bud Selig said that “Those recommendations that I can implement independently, I will do immediately.” Of course, he also said that “[Mitchell’s] report is a call to action. And I will act.”

The problem is that for many of these players, Selig has very little real evidence to base any action on. All he needs is “just cause” — which is less than what a court would need, mind you — but the MLB Player’s Association has said that they will protect these players. MLBPA executive director Donald Fehr said, “We will make certain that should any player be disciplined, he will have a right to a hearing and the full panoply of due process protections our agreements contemplate, and we will represent him in that process.”

Another thing to consider is that a lot of the players on the list are accused of taking the substances before Major League Baseball introduced its steroid testing policy in September of 2002. The Mitchell Report made mention of this:

Under basic principles of labor and employment law, an employer must apply the policies in place at the time of the conduct in question in determining what, if any, discipline is appropriate.

What this means is that even if a player flat-out admits that he took ridiculous quantities of anabolic steroids, if he did so before September of 2002, he cannot be suspended by Major League Baseball. This is something that is crucial, yet many fantasy owners will overlook. HGH bans weren't introduced until January 2005, so anyone accused of using before then should also be okay in this regard.

Legal issues

Legal issues obviously need to be examined one at a time, but I don't know how many quotes I've read from lawyers saying that much of what Mitchell said about specific players wouldn't hold up in a court of law. This isn't what Mitchell was trying to do, of course, but for fantasy purposes potential legal consequences need to be examined.

Let's assume, for a second, that a lot of these guys will actually need to go to court. Consider this quote from Keith Scherer, a federal criminal defense attorney who penned an article for THT in November about Barry Bonds.

Yes. Unless Bonds takes a deal, his case won’t go to trial before the end of the 2008 season. It can take several months — often more than a year — to bring a relatively simple case to trial in federal criminal court. Even when both parties expect that the case will eventually end in a plea, it can take that long to get to it.

While the Bonds indictment in question was perjury-related, it seems that this would apply to this Mitchell business as well. Even if a player does get charged, it doesn't look like he would miss any time in 2008 unless the charges are significant and he takes a plea deal relatively quickly. This seems pretty unlikely, though, given what most are calling shaky evidence.

Injury risk

As I have said many times before, I am not an injury expert, nor am I pretending to be one, so what I'm going to do is give some of my thoughts on this and let you come to your own conclusions.

Injury risk is the only reason I've heard for downgrading these guys that holds any water, really. Still, it seems possible that there won't be a significantly larger injury risk for many of these guys going forward.

Anabolic steroids are generally associated with a higher risk of injury, but they have been banned for a while now and it seems somewhat unlikely that guys are still taking it. While MLB teams will no longer be given advance notice of testing, I find it hard to believe that teams were blatantly helping players like this. It might be a little naive, but I have a hard time seeing this being the case. For guys who are accused of taking HGH, it's actually been said that many take it because they believe it helps with injury recovery, which is the reason players like Andy Pettitte have given for their use of HGH.

Because steroids and HGH unnaturally enlarge certain parts of one's physique, this can cause undue stress and lead to strains, tears, and other kinds of injuries. Even if a player has stopped using, the effects of PEDs could still linger from prior use, and this possibility should be considered.

The problem comes in that we really don't have any conclusive research linking PEDs to injuries, and a lot depends on an individual's own, unique situation. This doesn't seem likely to change any time soon, either. As Bryan Tsao said in a recent conversation I had with him, "I doubt we will ever have it given the ethical constraints around giving people steroids."

The fact of the matter is, we don't really know how steroids will affect these guys because 1) The details of every single player's situation are fuzzy, at best and 2) We don't have much quantitative analysis to make even general conclusions.

The bottom line is this, though: In competitive fantasy leagues, you often have to look in some overlooked places to find value. If, coming off the Mitchell Report, the only change in a player's true value is the possibility of an increased injury risk, I believe that this is a guy we need to seriously consider.

Concluding thoughts

That concludes Part 1 of THT Fantasy Focus’s Mitchell Report breakdown. If you have additional reasons for downgrading players mentioned in the Mitchell Report, please shoot me an e-mail. I'd love to hear them.

In Part 2, we’ll examine how this report changes, or doesn’t change, the fantasy value of some of the big name players Senator Mitchell wrote about and how to properly evaluate them.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:00pm (0) Comments

Monday, January 07, 2008

Mitchell Report fallout: Fantasy ramificiations (Part 2)

In Part 1 of Mitchell Report fallout: Fantasy ramifications, we looked at some of the misconceptions about the Mitchell Report and the players accused of taking PEDs. Bud Selig said that he will examine these players on a “case-by-case” basis, which is exactly what the astute fantasy owner needs to do now. Let’s look at a few of the bigger names.

What we should really be thinking about

Many fantasy players will hear about this report and say, "Oh, no. Steroids, bad." These owners will ignore the individual circumstances and lump everybody together. An intelligent owner instead will begin evaluating players by first asking these questions:

1) What is the player accused of taking?
2) Is this new information?
3) When did he allegedly use them, and how often?
4) Was it used for performance or recovery?
5) Did he allegedly take them before they were banned from baseball?
6) Did he ever fail a test?
7) How reliable is the source?
8) Is there any circumstantial evidence, or is the player’s inclusion based on hearsay?
9) Did the player admit to taking it?
10) Is it possible for the player to continue taking it next year without being caught?
11) How likely is it the player will get suspended?
12) How likely is it that the player is at increased risk of injury for 2008?
13) And, ultimately, will this truly affect his 2008 fantasy value?

Andy Pettitte

Accused of taking: HGH
New information?: Yes
When: Between April 21 and June 14, 2002
How often: Two to four times
Use: Recovery from elbow tendinitis
Before MLB Ban?: Yes
Admission?: Yes, said he used it twice
Possibility of continued use in 2008?: Has most likely stopped using, but could continue using
Likelihood of suspension: Cannot be suspended
Increased risk of injury?: No
Change in fantasy value: Andy Pettitte should not be valued any differently than he was before the Mitchell Report.

Troy Glaus

Accused of taking: Nandrolone and testosterone (anabolic)
New information?: No
When: Between September 2003 and May 2004
How often: Unknown
Use: Unknown. Torn his rotator cuff in '03 and had shoulder surgey in '04, so use for injury recovery is possible
Before MLB Ban?: Yes
Admission?: No
Possibility of continued use in 2008?: Yes, although his source of HGH that was mentioned has since been closed.
Likelihood of suspension: Cannot be suspended
Increased risk of injury?: Already an injury risk.
Change in fantasy value: No new evidence presented on Glaus, so fantasy value should not be affected. He is already an injury risk player, so there is no need to discount him further.

Miguel Tejada

Accused of taking: Testosterone or Deca-Durabolin (anabolic) and HGH
New information?: Yes
When: Sometime after March 21, 2003
How often: Unknown
Use: Supposedly for performance enhancement
Before MLB Ban?: No
Failed test?: No
Source and reliability: Adam Piatt, very reliable
Evidence: Conversations with Piatt and checks purchasing the PEDs, though Piatt didn't know if Tejada used them
Admission?: No
Possibility of continued use in 2008?: Not likely for the anabolic ones, possibly HGH
Likelihood of suspension: Fairly unlikely. There is proof of Tejada's purchase, but zero proof—hearsay or otherwise—that he actually used them.
Increased risk of injury?: Possibility of an increased injury risk, although the accusations are coming from 2003. Never missed a game from 2000 until 2007, so he's probably pretty safe.
Change in fantasy value: Possibility of an increased injury risk, but overall I wouldn't adjust his value much.

Eric Gagne

Accused of taking: HGH
New information?: Yes
When: During or after the summer of 2005
How often: Unknown
Use: Supposedly for performance enhancement
Before MLB Ban?: Yes
Failed test?: No
Source and reliability: Paul Lo Duca and Kirk Radomski, pretty reliable
Evidence: Radomski's story and shipping receipts from Gagne to Radomski
Admission?: No
Possibility of continued use in 2008?: Yes
Likelihood of suspension: Cannot be suspended
Increased risk of injury?: Already an injury risk.
Change in fantasy value: Like Glaus, Gagne is already seen as an injury risk. No need to downgrade him further.

Brian Roberts

Accused of taking: Steroids
New information?: Yes
When: 2003
How often: Once or twice
Use: Supposedly for performance enhancement
Before MLB Ban?: No
Failed test?: No
Source and reliability: Larry Bigbie, somewhat reliable
Evidence: Bigbie's story of Roberts admitting to him that he used steroids
Admission?: Yes, admitted to using it once.
Possibility of continued use in 2008?: Unlikely
Likelihood of suspension: Roberts admitted to using it once and then realizing he didn't want to be a cheater. Seems he could receive a small suspension, but Selig might have bigger fish to fry. Not a huge concern.
Increased risk of injury?: Not likely if he took it only once in 2003.
Change in fantasy value: Once in 2003 shouldn't a big deal. Can knock him down just a tiny bit, but nothing to stress over.

BALCO guys

Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield were also mentioned in Sen. Mitchell's report, although no new information was presented on any of them. This may add another strike against them in the eyes of certain owners, but you shouldn't treat them any differently than you were because of this.

Concluding thoughts

That'll do it for our Mitchell Report series. If you want to know how the Mitchell Report will impact the value of any other guys, download a copy and see what Sen. Mitchell had to say about the player. Run through these questions and you should be fine.

The outcome will be the same for most of them: possibility of an increased injury risk, maybe a small risk of suspension, but, overall, nothing to overreact to.

Posted by Derek Carty at 6:22pm (0) Comments

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

More on value and the “learned minority”

In response to my last column, the most frequent question I have been asked is whether I am merely saying that we cannot judge whether we have gotten value at the time of the auction. Yes I am saying that, but on a deeper level what I am saying is that the basic paradigm by which players are obtained is flawed especially at the top of the auction pyramid where players are not fungible.

At the top of the auction pyramid where the top talent lies the concept of value has to basically go out the window in keeper leagues where inflation is often rampant. If you are hoping to get a Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins type player for under $30 so that they have value then you have little chance of getting the top talent necessary to win in tough leagues.

Anyone who has been in an auction has experienced this common scenario: you have a guy projected at $20. Bidding starts and reaches $20. You drop out and someone gets him for $24. That player goes on to produce a $35 season. Every year there are a few of these guys. Often owners who don't think about such things consider that the successfully bidding owner was just lucky. Perhaps he was but perhaps he knows a lot more than he is given credit for. Evaluation of your adversary is always to be considered.

Question: (and I apologize for channeling Dwight Schrute for a second) why did you drop out of the bidding? Invariably the answer is that the player wasn't a good value at that price. Most times that may be true and in the long run it will be true; namely if I take a group of 100 players all of whom are valued at $20 and pay $24 I will probably show a loss, assuming my projections are good.

But every so often you feel like you have inside information or see something that others do not. Often this might be using a regression to the mean approach for BABIP or hit rate or some other solid information that you have. In this regard you may be a "learned minority." I have discussed at length my trade of Stephen Drew or the fact that two expert owners went head-to-head in a bidding war for Tom Gorzelanny this year, with the other owners denouncing them as crazy (and these two owners finished one-two this year).

Every year there are a whole host of such players that I target at the auction, maybe 5-7 each year. Every year I invariably get almost all of them. Why? Because value is not the proper way to acquire players in every instance and I am willing to go beyond it for these players when other owners are not. I am happy to acquire players I love and feel like I have great info on if they go for anywhere close to my projections.

A few examples aside from Gorzelanny: two years ago I acquired Brian McCann in my high stakes league for $12. I had him projected at $10, and would have gone to $15 (he produced $25). Last year I had Jake Peavy projected at $23. I bought him for $30. I also had Jimmy Rollins at $30 and got him for $33. I got James Shields at $9 but would have gone to at least $13 for him. All outproduced their projections and my purchase price. If I considered value for these guys I would have gotten none of them.

As Wittgenstein might have said if he played fantasy baseball, value is just a symbol. Our goal is not to maximize value but to maximize production and statistics. Value is a shorthand symbolic way to maximize your teams production but it is no substitute for actual evaluation of points to be gained and statistics to be accrued and dollars to be earned.

I am not saying that you should not chase value. What I am saying is that the pursuit of value is a mirage that can cloud your view of the overall goal to be achieved, the maximizing of production. My personal view is that a "go get them" approach with regard to the players you really want will often do better than a value based approach, especially if you are particularly astute and have excellent judgment about players. This advice is not license to go overboard however! We are talking here about non-fungible players at or near the top of the auction pyramid.

The fact is that a value based approach is correct when you are dealing with fungible commodities. But at the top where the big money is spent you will usually do better to target specific players that you desire if (and that is a big if) you really do see aspects of that player that others in your league do not. That means not only must you consider your own values but you must consider what your opponents know and what they will do with that knowledge.

One final anecdote that is somewhat reflective of the same principle: in my days as a horseplayer, I found a particular public handicapper who was very astute at picking longshots. I considered him to be a "learned minority." What I would do is look for situations where he picked a horse to win that no other public handicapper even put in the top three. This yielded tremendous profits. It was a good lesson in thinking outside the box and in realizing that sometimes you must act on knowledge that you have that others don't regardless of other factors.

Posted by Patrick DiCaprio at 7:13am (0) Comments

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

The probabilistic concept of value

The concept of value seems to be a hot topic of late, so I thought I'd chime in with my thoughts on it.

Let me preface this entire article by saying that I do not believe dollar values are the end-all-be-all when deciding who to take in an auction. If you like a player, but it costs a dollar or two more than you were hoping to get him for, you should absolutely do it. I do not, however, think that you should make this a regular habit.

Stat projection parallel

While it is very true that a player you have projected for $30 could easily end up anywhere from $25 to $35, I don't think that warrants spending $33 or so every time a player you have projected for $30 comes up.

I think this draws a parallel to the way a stat projection should be made (and is made, really, by most of the major systems). To take an example, let's look at batting average. A player with an expected batting average of .275 could find himself hitting anywhere from maybe .250 to .300 at the end of the season with little change in his skill set and still be within reasonable statistical variation.

There is a chance his BABIP will be lucky in the .390 range and a chance it will be unlucky in the .260 range. His contact rate could be up or down a point or two, or his home run rate could be a smidgen up or down due to some luck. When projecting him to hit .275, we need to place a weight on every single one of these possibilities — on every single possible batting average — and we eventually end up with .275 as the average expected batting average... even though we realize it could easily be higher or lower with the exact same skill set.

While we don't literally weigh every single possibility, when we look at a player's skills to project his production, this is exactly what we are doing.

If you're familiar with PECOTA, you are probably following along nicely right now. PECOTA breaks a player's possible statistical outputs into percentiles. It's 50th Percentile projection is the average of all the percentiles combined.

Here's where our discussion gets slightly abstract, so please keep an open mind. Given the information we now know about the player's percentile projections and given a universe where the batter plays out the upcoming season an infinite number of times, the player will average his 50th percentile estimate. Sometimes he will perform at the various other percentiles, but on average, the 50th percentile is where he will end up.

So if we're going to use his projections for the coming season in this universe, in which the player has just one crack at the season, which set of projections would be the best to use? Obviously, the 50th percentile projection is the safest bet. And if we use the 50th percentile projections for all players, we will undoubtedly project more of them correctly than if we used, say, the 10th percentile projections. Understand?

Poker parallel

Another great parallel to this concept is poker. Let's assume we're sitting at a no-limit Texas Hold 'Em table, and we're looking for the fifth card of a flush going to the turn. We know that we have roughly a 4-1 chance of catching that card to complete our flush. That means that in order to break even on this hand, our pot odds need to be better than 4-1. If the odds are better than 4-1, we call this a high equity play. This means that throughout our poker career, if we continually make this bet (drawing at a flush on fourth street) while we have better than 4-1 odds, we will make a profit.

Sometimes we will not make our flush, and we will lose the hand, despite making the mathematically proper play. It will not work out every single time; it can't. But over time, making that same exact play, logic and probabilities dictate that we will indeed make a profit. It would be ill-advised to assume that the values are different just because the outcome changes each time.

It's the same with batting average, going back to our example from before. Just because our player can hit .300 doesn't mean we should value him as such. It will happen occasionally, but more often he will hit .275, so that's what we should value him as. Consistently valuing these types of guys as .300 hitters would ultimately yield negative value, because they can't all hit .300. Collectively, on average, they will hit .275 and you will be paying too much for them. Understand?

Back to dollar values

Now back to the matter at hand — dollar values. A $30 player could easily end up as a $25 or $35 player, but on average he will be worth $30. So to say, "well I can pay a few extra dollars for this guy because we don't know exactly where his true value will end up" seems like it would be a mistake.

It's like in poker saying, "well, the odds are 4-1 that I'll make my flush on the next card, but it will cost me 3-1 pot odds to make the call. Oh, well, it's close enough, and we really don't know what the next card will be, so I'll call." That will be a poor call because while occasionally you will make the flush (the odds of making it never change), over time you will lose money because you are putting in more to make the calls then you will receive when you eventually catch your card and win the hand.

The same goes for our $30 player. If you are consistently paying $33 dollars for him (or other players you have valued as $30), you will lose money in the long run. Sometimes he will be worth $33, sometimes $25, sometimes $35, sometimes $30, and so on. Over time, though, that player, on average, will yield $30 in profit. Consistently paying $33 for him will cause you to lose money. Plain and simple.

Spend wisely

I did say in the beginning, though, that we should not become overly obsessed with our dollar values, and I absolutely believe this. If, occasionally, you want to pay $32 for the $30 player, go right ahead. It can be difficult — if not outright impossible — to get excellent value with every pick, especially in a competitive league. Plus, you will almost surely have the opportunity to make up that $2 in value later on in the draft. Remember, though: do not make this type of behavior a habit.

Concluding thoughts

We'll be talking more about value in February, but I think this is an excellent start. I know all of this is a little abstract and might be difficult to understand if this is the first time you're being exposed to it (I hope I explained it well enough), but if you can wrap your head around this probabilistic concept of value now, you will be in great shape going forward.

On a separate note, I just completed my first mock auction of the year tonight, so be on the lookout for a recap tomorrow.

Posted by Derek Carty at 10:25pm

Sunday, January 13, 2008

FBE Expert Mock Auction Rundown

Wednesday night I participated in my first mock auction of the year, which was hosted by Fantasy Baseball Express and Fantasy Auctioneer. Also, a big thanks to Brad Stewart at MLB Front Office for setting me up in it. Wednesday night also marked my first test drive of the new THT Projections, which will be available in the THT Season Preview Book.

Patience

The most important thing I can stress to you guys is the importance of patience in auctions. As the auction began last night, players started going for much more than I had them valued as. Six players ended up going for $40 or more, with Alex Rodriguez leading the way at $50. Another nine guys went for between $35 and $40. After 45 minutes of drafting, I hadn't acquired a single player.

Granted, I'm often slow out of the gate when players go for this much, but being that I mostly play in drafts (although I prefer auctions) and this was my first auction of the year (and my first online auction ever), I was pretty nervous.

I was worried I was being too frugal and wouldn't end up with a good enough team, or worse yet, wouldn't end up spending all of my money. I knew better, obviously, but I just couldn't shake the feeling. When you face inflation early, there will almost certainly be bargains later. That's why mock drafts are so valuable, though. You get rid of all those jitters and reservations before the real thing.

When Joba Chamberlain came up and the bidding stopped at $8, I bid $9 and got my first player. I admit that this was a buy made out of impulse instead of strategy. $9 was more than I had him valued as, but when some players were going for $10+ more than what I had them valued as (see: $44 Albert Pujols, $41 Miguel Cabrera), I panicked a little bit.

When using the valuation strategy that I'll present to you guys sometime in the near future, be aware that this type of thing could happen. You won't be making many sexy picks early on, but you will likely come away with a solid team... if you don't panic. If guys are going for too much early on, it simply means that there will be bargains if you wait.

Foiled pitching strategy

I also had a strategy for pitchers going in that acquiring Joba forced me to stray from a little. Since I think starting pitching, on the whole, is generally undervalued, I was hoping to grab one, maybe two, aces and fill out the rest with bargains in the $5-$15 range (which I expected there to be plenty of) and a couple of $1-4 guys I was high on. With 9 pitching slots, I wanted to get six or seven starters and get two or three closers or closers in waiting (Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol, Rafael Betancourt types) for a couple of bucks each.

To be more specific as to my strategy, I was hoping to get Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and a Dustin McGowan/Andrew Sonnanstine-type for a combined $10-11 for the back of my staff, a guy like Felix Hernandez for $10-$15, a guy like Erik Bedard or Scott Kazmir for $20 or less, and a guy like Jake Peavy for around $25. That would give me six pitchers I really liked, all at decent-to-great value.

Joba didn't fit into any of these classifications. Granted, THT's preliminary projections have him down for a 4.10 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 119 strikeouts over 116 innings, but he just isn't a guy I should have taken given my strategy.

While I don't believe in the theory that you should restrict yourself to spending 30% on pitching because 'pitching is too risky' — something that occurs in most all auctions and something I'll talk about at a later date — this would only tie up exactly 30% of my funds (maximum) and allow me to be aggressive with hitters. That was my plan anyway, but many of the top hitters were going just a little higher than even what my planned aggressive bids would have been.

As this happened, I got a little overexcited with the pitching. I ended up switching gears and bought more top pitchers than I'd wanted.

Soon after acquiring Joba, I found C.C. Sabathia, Dan Haren, and John Smoltz on my team and four of my pitching spots filled. I contribute this to my growing fear that I wouldn't end up with any good hitters and that I needed to make up for it somewhere. While I didn't get any of these guys at a real discount, I did get them right around the dollar figures I had laid out, and in the heat of the auction, this seemed better than overspending for hitters. As I've said, this was obviously a huge mistake; it should have been obvious that bargains would come along later. Soon after getting these guys, these rational thoughts set in... just a bit too late though.

At the time, being active like this felt safer than being inactive. This is one of the biggest mistakes you can make. While being active feels safer than being inactive, it really just forces you to make mistakes. If it still seems possible to go through with your original plan, you need to do it. You likely spent much more time thinking about it before the draft than you will spend during the draft changing gears. This change in gears is often a split-second, impulsive decision that you will end up regretting.

The problem for me was that I spent a combined $66 on these pitchers, didn't get any of them at a real discount, and strayed from a strategy that was still possible to see to fruition.

On the bright side, I did now have three of THT's top six pitchers, and that's before accounting for Haren's move to the National League. If this were a real league, I don't think I'd have much trouble in April or May trading a couple of these guys for a couple of nice hitters.

Scarcity

A small strategy I had going in was to call out players at scarce positions early and gauge how the market treated them. That way you can tell within the first hour or so if you will get discounts on these guys or be forced to pay premiums for them. I value positional scarcity a lot (the reasons for which I'll be talking about another day), so for me this is a great way to plan out how I'll be able to spend my money.

My biggest target among scarce positions was Russell Martin, and I wanted to see how much I would likely have to give for him. By calling out catchers early, I would also force some teams to fill one of their catcher spots before Martin was put on the block. For my second catcher, I was hoping to get a guy like J.R. Towles or Geovany Soto — who the THT projections had ranked 6th and 7th — at a bargain price later in the draft.

I ended up calling out (if I remember correctly) Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, and Jorge Posada. When Victor Martinez was bid all the way up to $26, I thought that it might be difficult getting a discount on catchers. Posada came next, and when the biddings stopped at $12, I nabbed him for $13, a few bucks less than what I had him valued as. He wasn't Martin, but he was still a bargain, which at this point were still few and far between. THT actually had Posada as the #3 catcher, with a .286 average and 19 homers in 458 at-bats.

Mauer then went for $16, higher than I would have paid, before I decided to throw out Martin. In retrospect, I absolutely should have waited longer (which goes back to the importance of patience), but I did end up getting him for a decent price of $21. That's $5 less than Victor, and I actually prefer Martin to Victor this year.

After getting Posada, I should have waited to call out Martin and if he went too high, wait and go after Towles or Soto. They went for $6 and $3 respectively, making me really regret that decision. This is another good lesson you guys should learn from. Going into the draft with a plan and targeting a few specific guys is great, but you can't get too obsessed with them. If a different, but equally good opportunity comes along, it is perfectly fine to adjust. Just make sure you make all of the necessary adjustments. In this case, that would mean forgoing bidding on Martin after getting Posada.

Small strategy when faced with inflation

While I wanted to throw out catchers early, the inflation that was going on made me change it up just a little. Since guys seemed to be overpaying, I mixed in a few top closers — who I knew I didn't want, for reasons I discussed last year but will discuss again in the coming months — to get some money off the table. Jonathan Papelbon went for $19; J.J. Putz went for $18; Joe Nathan, Francisco Rodriguez, Bobby Jenks, and Trevor Hoffman went for $15; and several others went for $10 or more.

I think this is a good strategy to use when you find that some of the other owners are being frivolous with their budget. When this happens, I do not suggest going along with it and paying extra, which means you'll be doing a good deal of waiting. As you bide your time, you can still take advantage of this market condition. Put up guys you know you don't want, like closers, as they will probably eat up more money now than they will later on in the draft when owners realize that they can no longer be throwing money around.

Last bout of shaky decision-making

I'm going to be hard on myself for just one more quick minute, and then I'll talk about the good decisions I made during the auction.

With four of my pitching spots filled, the last thing I needed was another expensive pitcher. I knew this, yet when Felix Hernandez was at $14 and there was just a second left to bid, I bid $15. I immediately realized my mistake and desperately hoped to be outbid. Unfortunately, this didn't happen. With the extra ace starters, I no longer needed that $10-15 pitcher. I knew this, but I couldn't help myself. I can't say this enough. You just cannot get too attached to players. It will cause you to make mistakes.

Value

The auction wasn't all bad decisions for me, though. I'm only dedicating a small space to the good decisions I made because, frankly, you guys can learn far more from the mistakes.

Still, I got plenty of guys at good value; my favorite of which was Frank Thomas for $3. THT has him down for a .275 average and 29 home runs. That kind of production is a huge bargain at $3, even if he takes up your utility spot. Dan Uggla for $8 was also a nice buy. THT's .265 batting average projection isn't fantastic, but couple it with 26 home runs and Uggla becomes a bargain as an $8 middle infielder.

Flexibility versus patience

I've talked a lot this article about the importance of patience. I've also mentioned, though, that flexibility is important. This seems a little contradictory. How can you be patient but also be prepared to switch up your strategy?

Well, if at all possible, this flexibility should be planned out ahead of time. You need to have several contingency plans... the more the better. For example, you should have a plan for when you face inflation early, for when you face deflation early, for when the market seems reasonable, and for every other situation you think you might encounter. By doing this, it helps you to avoid making split-second, strategy-altering decisions that could ultimately come back to bite you.

I obviously didn't do that for this auction, as I am still trying to work out my optimum strategies for each situation. You can be certain, though, that by the time my real auctions come around, I'm going to be ready. This auction provided some excellent insight into how I should approach auctions with early inflation.

I recommend you all take on this exercise. Do several mock auctions, make some mistakes, and figure out the best ways to approach the real thing.

Concluding thoughts

I could easily have ignored some of the not-so-good decisions I made, played like it was part of my actual plan, or simply spent this whole article pointing out my good decisions. Doing this, though, misleads you and doesn't allow you to learn anything. By pointing out my mistakes, I'm hoping to convey things that will help you avoid making them yourself. Going into this auction, I wasn't trying to be perfect. I was trying to learn, and that's exactly what I did.

I also think explaining my mistakes to you is a great way to show the importance of mock drafting before the real thing. Make the mistakes when it doesn't matter, and you will be much better off when it does matter.

I have an expert mock draft at Mock Draft Central tomorrow night, so look for something on Tuesday or Wednesday about it.

On one final note, one of the reader leagues I helped organize a few weeks ago has had two owners drop out. If we have anyone else interested in joining a competitive league, send me an e-mail, and I'll give that league's commissioner your name.

Posted by Derek Carty at 10:30pm (0) Comments

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

MDC Expert Mock Draft Rundown

Last night I participated in my second expert mock of the year and my first expert snake draft, hosted by Mock Draft Central. Let me first say what a pleasurable experience this was. Mock Draft Central had it set up where non-participants could sit in on the draft, watch the picks live, and ask the experts questions throughout the night. I even received a couple of questions from THT Fantasy Focus readers.

In addition, Lenny Melnick and Paul Greco were broadcasting live during the draft to discuss the picks. I had more fun sitting there, reading and answering questions, and listening to Melnick and Greco than I can express. Overall, a wonderful experience, so a big thank you to everyone involved.

So, I'm going to use this article to walk you through my strategies going into the draft and the decision-making process that I went through during the draft.

Early round strategy

With my first mock draft of the year already completed, I was much more at ease going into this one. I, again, used the projections that will be available in the THT Season Preview Book combined with my preferred valuation methods.

My strategy for the early rounds:

Take the most valuable hitters in the first three rounds
Take a pitcher and a hitter in the fourth and fifth rounds

Very simple.

If Jake Peavy was there in the third I would have considered taking him and then going with two hitters in the fourth and fifth, but that didn't happen.

Early round picks

I was randomly assigned the third pick in the draft. When Alex Rodriguez and Hanley Ramirez went #1 and #2, most people would take Jose Reyes #3. I, however, opted to take David Wright. The reason for this is that THT's projection for Reyes isn't overly optimistic: .284 BA, 10 HR, 60 SB. Wright, on the other hand, had a very nice looking line, and my valuation system said he was the pick: .313 BA, 25 HR, 25 SB.

The funny thing is that Wright wasn't actually in my Top 3. Johan Santana was #2 and David Ortiz was #3. I knew that there would be plenty of other pitching bargains throughout the draft, so I skipped Santana. In addition, I was targeting Frank Thomas for my utility spot, so Ortiz got passed over as well. That left Wright at #4, and that was the pick.

Since I had the third pick, I had to wait a while for my second round pick. No big deal, though, as my 10th ranked hitter was waiting there for me. With the 22nd pick of the draft, I selected Carlos Lee and his .292/29 HR/14 SB projection.

The third round is where I strayed just a bit from the THT projections. I'm a big fan of Russell Martin this year. It's not often you will find a catcher who can steal over 20 bases. If that's not enough, though, he has a high contact rate and very good plate discipline. His HitTracker chart is very pretty-looking and power growth seems fairly likely, so I was pretty sold on Martin as my third pick. The projections said Victor Martinez would have been a good value pick in this spot, so I took Martin in his place.

By this point, I knew I wanted C.C. Sabathia as my first pitcher. Looking back, I'm not quite sure why I didn't take him with the fourth round pick, but that and the fifth rounder were only a few picks apart and it didn't end up mattering much. So in the fifth round of the draft, I got myself a stud pitcher with a fantastic projection: 3.17 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 206 IP. That's what I call value.

With the fourth round pick I got Torii Hunter. This was a straight value pick. I wasn't targeting anyone specific here, and Hunter was the best non-pitcher left on my draft board.

Strategy outcome: Success

Early-middle round strategy

Looking at ADP reports, I knew I would have to reach in the early rounds for the top middle infielders like Brandon Phillips and B.J. Upton, so my plan was to wait until here to take one or two. Using these ADP reports, I found that Dan Uggla would be a good value in this area, so I zeroed in on him.

Chipper Jones was another guy who looked like a good value in this area. Those were my targets in rounds six and seven, and I'd analyze how the market was playing out to see which I should take first.

After this was where things got a little tricky. I knew I wanted a pitcher somewhere in the 8-10 area, but I didn't have any specific targets. I also was going to be on the lookout for more middle infield bargains, but if there were none to be found simply go for whatever position offered up value.

Early-middle round picks

A much less concrete plan than the first five rounds, my early-middle round strategy was more of a waiting game to see who would be left over for me.

Uggla was waiting for me as my sixth pick rolled around, so I grabbed him. I waited until the seventh pick for Chipper because guys I had similarly valued (Adrian Gonzalez, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena) were still hanging around.
There was a backup plan in place in case I couldn't get these guys, but luckily I didn't need it.

My eighth rounder really got me upset. John Smoltz, the fifth pitcher on my board, was still hanging around. I was all set to take him, when Jason Pliml took him the pick before me. I settled for Chris Young, the ninth ranked pitcher.

It should be noted that Jorge Posada, the fifth catcher taken, was selected the pick after Young. He was THT's 3rd ranked catcher and a great value here. In retrospect, I could have taken someone other than Martin in the third round, but I had no real way of knowing that the top catchers would last this long. That's one of the reasons I like auctions so much. You can throw out a few catchers early and get an immediate feel how the market values players at scarce positions.

There weren't any obvious middle infield values with the ninth pick, so I took Jermaine Dye instead. I had him rated as a fourth round value, so getting him and his projected .279 BA and 30 HR in the ninth wasn't bad at all.

Strategy outcome: Success

Middle round strategy

In here, I had certain positions I wanted to fill, and would play the value game to fill them. I wanted at least one pitcher, maybe two. I wanted at least one middle infielder, maybe two. I would consider filling my second catcher spot if enough catchers had already been taken. I was also targeting Frank Thomas in this area to fill my utility spot. Lastly, if there were any good values at other positions to be had, I would take them.

Middle round picks

I was specifically targeting Orlando Cabrera with my tenth round pick, but thanks again to Jason Pliml, he was taken immediately before me. That left me scrabbling a little bit, and I ended up taking Francisco Liriano. Other starting pitching targets of mine (Matt Cain, Rich Hill, Yovani Gallardo) had already been taken, although I might have picked Liriano over them anyway.

I profiled Liriano back in November, and I think he is a great pick here. Andy Behrens also thought so, as he said he was getting ready to take him. After the draft, he also said that if this were a real league, he'd begin trying to pry Liriano from me. I wanted him with #11, but overall, I like the pick.

With Cabrera gone, a pitcher taken, and the next tier of middle infielders still a stretch, I went with straight value here and took Matt Kemp. There are a few question marks surrounding his playing time, but his projection makes him a nice pick here: 510 AB, .304 BA, 18 HR, 11 SB.

With 12 rounds left, I still needed to fill 6 pitcher spots, 1 outfield spot, 1 catcher spot, my first base spot, my utility spot, and 2 middle infield spots. I had specific targets everywhere except for the middle infield and was pretty sure I could get them all starting with my next two picks, so I went with two middle infielders here.

My choices were Felipe Lopez and Jeff Kent. I'm not sure why everyone is so down on Kent. THT has him projected for a .286 average and 17 home runs, but his HitTracker profile shows that he still has plenty of power, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if he outperforms that projection. Even if he simply meets it, he would still be a pretty good value in the 13th round.

I know I said I was targeting Frank Thomas here, but Jim Thome wasn't taken until the 12th round, and Gary Sheffield was still around. I figured if everyone was that low on these older, injury-prone DHs, that I could wait on Thomas.

Strategy outcome: Success

Middle-late round strategy

By this point in the draft, I always try to have a few guys in mind that I want to get. In this draft, these guys included Frank Thomas, either Geovany Soto orJ.R. Towles, Barry Bonds, and a few pitchers. Jeremy Bonderman was still left, and he would be my first choice, but there were others I had similarly valued.

Middle-late round picks

With my 14th round pick, I decided that Joey Votto was the best first base option left (and the drop off to the next guy was pretty large), even if he has Scott Hatteberg behind him. A 14th round pick isn't anything I'm going to lose sleep over if I miss on, but Votto could easily end up as a steal here.

The pick before my 15th rounder was Geovany Soto, so I knew I couldn't wait anymore to get Towles. With that, I was just two players away from completing my offense.

Here's where I'll admit the one real mistake I think I made in this draft. While I knew I wanted Frank Thomas, Gary Sheffield was still left in the 14th and 15th round. I probably should have taken Sheffield instead of Votto and forgotten about Thomas. I, instead, took Thomas with my 16th round pick as Sheffield was taken a few picks earlier. I had Thomas as fair value in the 9th round, so this certainly wasn't a bad pick, but I had Sheffield as fair value in the 7th round, so it probably would have been smarter to get him instead.

Now I needed pitching, and with Jeremy Bonderman still out there, the choice was easy. A projected 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 143 strikeouts in 176 innings is a fantastic pickup in the 17th round.

Strategy outcome: Success, but with a small missed opportunity

Late round strategy

As you've probably noticed, I haven't taken a closer yet. I think it is poor strategy to take a closer much earlier than here. If you want to take a guy like Joakim Soria or Rafael Soriano in Round 15, I couldn't really fault you too much, but earlier than that and you're making a mistake. I'll be talking much more in-depth about this topic later on, but this is where I was planning on starting to look at closers. I wanted to get at least two closers or closers-in-waiting and possibly grab a third.

I also needed two or three more starters, and I was specifically targeting Greg Maddux and Scott Baker. In addition, I was still targeting Barry Bonds as my final outfielder.

Late round picks

In the 18th round, I took Troy Percival. There were only a few real closers left, and I knew I could get my starters a bit later. Percival isn't a guy I'm thrilled to get, but saves are saves, and if he doesn't remain the closer all year, I'm only using an 18th round pick.

After getting my first closer and knowing I could get Maddux and Baker later, I decided it was time to take Bonds. Even though he isn't signed yet, I think Bonds is a great pick here. Taking guys with a lot of room for fluctuation is a very good strategy in the end-game of a draft, which is something else I'll be talking about in the future.

After Bonds, I took Tony Pena. He's got a shot at the closers role in Arizona, and if he doesn't get it, no big deal. I use these last few picks to speculate, and if a few hit I'm happy.

Maddux came next, in Round 21. I would have been comfortable taking him much earlier, but his ADP was so low I figured I could get him around here. I probably waited a bit too long, but I was curious just how far he would fall. Check out THT's projection for him: 3.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 97 K in 189 IP.

C.J. Wilson, slated for the Rangers closer's role, was still there in Round 22, so I took him. That gave me 3 potential closers for a very small investment.

Finally, I took Scott Baker, a personal favorite of mine, with my final pick. His LIPS ERA was 4.36 in 2006 and 4.05 in 2007, and an ERA under 4.00 in 2008 wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Strategy outcome: Success

Concluding thoughts

Overall, I think this draft was a huge success. I got value with almost every pick and got nearly every player I targeted. If you guys have questions about anything I did, feel free to shoot me an e-mail.

I don't have anymore expert mocks planned, but if anyone knows of any, I'd be more than happy to participate. Once again, thanks to everyone at Mock Draft Central, Paul Greco, and Lenny Melnick for a really fun experience last night.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:00pm (0) Comments

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Closer watch: American League

I thought it might be helpful to, periodically, look at the bullpen situations of each major league baseball team. I think this will be especially valuable leading up to draft day as it will help you decide which guys are worth speculating on for saves. As I've said, I don't like spending early picks on closers in shallow-to-medium leagues, so these articles should help you figure out which guys are worth taking late in your draft.

American League

Angels
Closer - Francisco Rodriguez
Analysis: Unless K-Rod gets injured, he should be the closer. If he does, you need to watch Scot Shields and Justin Speier.

Athletics
Closer - Huston Street
Analysis: A trade is possible and there are still some injury concerns, but if Street's on the team and healthy, he's the closer. Next in line would be Justin Duchscherer if he isn't moved to the rotation (which I don't think will happen, for what it's worth) and Santiago Casilla. Andrew Brown would be another possibility.

Blue Jays
Closer - Jeremy Accardo/B.J. Ryan
Analysis: Reports are saying that Ryan could be ready by the start of the season, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in May and the 18-month mark won't come until after the 2008 season ends. He's already throwing, and the Jays certainly want him back before then, but I'm worried they're rushing him. Accardo could come as a good value, as I think there's a real chance Ryan comes back ineffective. Casey Janssen would most likely be next in line, although Brandon League should be back and healthy this year as well.

Devil Rays
Closer - Troy Percival
Analysis: Manager Joe Maddon has committed to Percival as his closer, but Al Reyes and Dan Wheeler are hanging around if he bombs. They are both candidates to be traded, but they should be on your radar.

Indians
Closer - Joe Borowski
Analysis: Borowski's skills are modest, to say the least, and Rafael Betancourt has continued to be a dominant reliever. I would not be surprised at all if this is the year he becomes the team's full-time closer. One of the better AL setup men to speculate on. Japanese newcomer Masahide Kobayashi could be in the mix as well, although I'm not sure he's draftable with Betancourt around.

Mariners
Closer - J.J. Putz
Analysis: Putz is downright amazing, and there should be no question who the closer in Seattle is while he's healthy. George Sherrill was their second-best reliever last year, although he's a lefty and is being discussed in trade talks. If it's not Sherrill, guys like Brandon Morrow and Sean Green would probably be in the mix in the event of a Putz injury. Neither is worth drafting except in really deep leagues.

Orioles
Closer - Open
Analysis: There isn't a clear-cut closer right now in Baltimore. Jamie Walker is a possibility, but the Orioles tried really hard to keep him in a setup role last year when Chris Ray went down. Ray and Danys Baez are out for the year, so the Orioles don't have a ton of veteran options. Chad Bradford could contend, or youngsters like Jim Hoey, Cory Doyne, or even Fernando Cabrera could be options.

There have also been murmurs that the Orioles are looking at Octavio Dotel. If they sign him, he becomes the guy to own. Otherwise, we don't have much more than speculation to go on, but right now I'm putting my money (hesitantly) on Hoey. He doesn't have as much experience as the other guys, but he put up great peripherals in limited time in Triple-A last year. More of a process of elimination choice, but anything could happen.

Rangers
Closer - C.J. Wilson
Analysis: Akinori Otsuka was non-tendered and is now said to be undergoing some sort of surgery, so he becomes much less of a threat to come back and challenge Wilson. Joaquin Benoit is another possibility, but the Rangers favored Wilson in the second-half of 2007. He's the guy to own right now, and he's been one of the last few closers off the board in many mock drafts. I see good value here. The Rangers signed Eddie Guardado and Masahide Kobayashi from Japan, so if Wilson does lose the job one of these guys is a possibility to step up.

Red Sox
Closer - Jonathan Papelbon
Analysis: Papelbon is the man in Boston, and if he gets injured Hideki Okajima would be next in line.

Royals
Closer - Joakim Soria
Analysis: There was talk of moving Soria to the rotation, but that doesn't seem likely to happen anymore. They didn't get Dotel back, and they don't have much else in the pen. If Soria gets hurt, you could watch Ron Mahay, Jimmy Gobble, Joel Peralta, or Yasuhiko Yabuta as potential replacements.

Tigers
Closer - Todd Jones
Analysis: Jones really had an awful year, skills-wise, and it's hard to see him lasting another year in the closer's role. With Joel Zumaya out for the season, though, it is possible. Fernando Rodney, right now, represents the biggest threat to Jones. He's a decent guy to speculate on.

Twins
Closer - Joe Nathan
Analysis: Another really stable closer situation. If Nathan gets hurt, Pat Neshek is probably second in line. Matt Guerrier, Juan Rincon, and maybe Jesse Crain are other guys you could watch if Nathan goes down.

White Sox
Closer - Bobby Jenks
Analysis: Jenks is the closer, but if he goes down, Mike MacDougal could step in. Scott Linebrink was signed this off-season, although he showed serious skills deterioration in 2007 with the Padres. He appeared to bounce back in 25 innings with the Brewers, so if he can do that with the Sox, he could be in the mix if Jenks gets injured.

Yankees
Closer - Mariano Rivera
Analysis: While the Yankees are saying they could start Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen to start the year to keep his innings down, don't expect him to take the closer's job unless Rivera gets hurt. If Rivera does get hurt, there's a chance Joba could stay the whole year in the pen. If Rivera gets hurt after Joba has a spot in the rotation sealed, LaTroy Hawkins or maybe Kyle Farnsworth would be the top candidates to replace him.

Draft day bargains

Here are the guys I see as bargains on draft day, guys you should target in the later rounds of your draft (assuming your league isn't ultra-deep).

Joakim Soria
C.J. Wilson
Troy Percival
Jeremy Accardo
Rafael Betancourt
Todd Jones
Fernando Rodney
The Orioles
Octavio Dotel

This list will be update throughout Spring Training as bullpen situations or the Average Draft Position reports change.

Concluding thoughts

I'm not familiar with every team's minor league relief prospects, so if you think I missed someone, feel free to let me know. We'll do the National League tomorrow.

On an unrelated note, I have a new article up at MLB Front Office about ground ball pitchers. I thought that the duel tables that appear at the end of the article were really cool. They give league-wide composite ERAs for pitchers with similar strikeout and walk rates but drastically different ground ball rates. Definitely worth a look.

Posted by Derek Carty at 10:00pm (0) Comments

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Closer watch: National League

Today we'll look at the National League closer situations. As I said yesterday, I'm against taking closers early, so hopefully these lists should help you pick out guys to speculate on late in your draft or for a couple of bucks at auction.

National League

Astros
Closer - Jose Valverde
Analysis: The Astros traded for Valverde for a reason. They weren't confident in Brad Lidge but still felt like they needed a good closer. Valverde fills that need, and he likely won't be replaced unless he gets injured. Since mid-2007, the Astros have traded Lidge, Dan Wheeler, and Chad Qualls, leaving them with few other quality relievers. If Valverde gets injured, Geoff Geary might become the guy to own.

Braves
Closer - Rafael Soriano
Analysis: Soriano is the man in Atlanta, although Mike Gonzalez is expected to be back in the middle of the season. Until the Braves are confident he's fully healthy, Peter Moylan is probably next in line.

Brewers
Closer - Eric Gagne
Analysis: I haven't heard an official announcement yet, but it's difficult to see the Brewers giving Eric Gagne $10 million without giving him first crack at — and a pretty long leash with — the closer's role. Still, there's been talk that it could be Derrick Turnbow. I'm drafting Gagne, although Turnbow is a decent setup guy to speculate on. David Riske is probably #3 in the Milwaukee pen. They also have Salomon Torres, Seth McClung, and Guillermo Mota, but it would take a lot for them to get involved in the saves mix.

Cardinals
Closer - Jason Isringhausen
Analysis: Isringhausen has got a firm hold on the job, but he also has an injury history. Ryan Franklin is listed as the top setup man right now, although Russ Springer and Randy Flores showed better skills last year. Don't worry about any of them unless Izzy gets hurt.

Cubs
Closer - Open
Analysis: Kerry Wood is probably the favorite for the role, although Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry are also in the mix. Some nice insight from Rotoworld: "For the second year in a row, the 30-year-old opted to stay with the Cubs despite promises of more interesting offers elsewhere. In return, the Cubs figure to give him the first shot at taking over their closer's role." I'd take a late round flier on Wood, although Marmol is much more talented and could just as easily have the role all to himself by mid-season. Both are worth taking in medium-depth leagues, and Howry is a decent pick in deeper leagues.

Diamondbacks
Closer - Open
Analysis: It's been said that newly acquired Chad Qualls will not be in the saves mix initially. He becomes the #3 guy in the desert as Tony Pena and Brandon Lyon battle for the job. Lyon had the better ERA last year, but Pena had the better LIPS ERA. I've heard Lenny Melnick say on a couple of occasions that he thinks the D-backs prefer Lyon because Pena is more capable of pitching two innings while they don't believe Lyon can. Lyon was once a starter, although he only through 2+ innings three times last year.

Both are decent picks at the end of a draft. I'm probably taking Pena first, though. Juan Cruz had a better LIPS ERA than both Pena and Lyon last year, but I haven't heard anything linking him to the role as he's sometimes used for 3+ innings.

Dodgers
Closer - Takashi Saito
Analysis: One of the most top heavy pens in baseball. Saito is the closer and was excellent in 2007, but he will be 38 on opening day and has some real talent behind him. Jonathan Broxton is the biggest concern, although Jonathan Meloan is also good.

Giants
Closer - Brian Wilson
Analysis: Brad Hennessey was the closer for most of 2007, although Wilson got 6 saves after August 20. Hennessey got 7 saves in this time frame, although Manager Bruce Bochy has said Wilson is likely to be his closer. He's shown problems with his control in the minors and hasn't put up much better than a league average strikeout rate in the majors. He is worth speculating on, but be aware that he could easily lose the job with a poor start. Hennessey is still around, as is Tyler Walker, so he has competition.

Marlins
Closer - Kevin Gregg
Analysis: Crowded bullpen in Florida. Gregg is the closer, but he has plenty of competition. Taylor Tankersley was talked about last off-season, but he had a less-than-stellar 2007. Henry Owens had the job a little in 2007, but his skills haven't translated to the majors yet. Justin Miller actually had the best LIPS ERA of the group, but Matt Lindstrom was also very good and could be the #2. Keep an eye on Lee Gardner and Renyel Pinto as well. Gregg is the guy to own, but pay close attention to how the others are used in April.

Mets
Closer - Billy Wagner
Analysis: Wagner has the spot locked down, but if he gets hurt Aaron Heilman could step in. I'm still hoping the Mets will sign Octavio Dotel, who would be in the mix if he is. Dark horse candidate is Joe Smith.

Nationals
Closer - Chad Cordero
Analysis: Cordero has the spot locked down, although a trade is a definite possibility, as it has been for a while now. Jon Rauch is the likely #2, although there's talk that he could be traded as well. After those two, you've got Luis Ayala and guys like Ryan Wagner and Jesus Colome who were once highly touted.

Padres
Closer - Trevor Hoffman
Analysis: I have a hard time seeing the Pads turning away from Hoffman, but Heath Bell is dynamite, and Cla Meredith is talented as well. Hoffman will likely go too high to be drafted, but Bell is a decent guy to speculate on late.

Phillies
Closer - Brad Lidge
Analysis: People are concerned about Lidge in Citizens Bank Park given his 16% and 13% HR/FB in 2006 and 2007, respectively. Still, from 2003-2005 it was never higher than 10%. It won't be that low in 2008, but it would take a decent-sized implosion for the Phils to switch gears on him. Tom Gordon is most likely second in line. After that, it's anyone's guess really. After all, manager Charlie Manual used Antonio Alfonseca in the role for a while in 2007. J.C. Romero maybe? Ryan Madson had the best LIPS ERA last year, so he might be a better guess.

Pirates
Closer - Matt Capps
Analysis: Capps has the job secured. Damaso Marte is probably the #2, but you don't need to worry too much about him unless Capps gets hurt.

Reds
Closer - Francisco Cordero
Analysis: Cordero is absolutely the closer, but all the same characters from last year are still around. None are good enough to overthrow him, but if he gets hurt there could be a battle. That bullpen is chock full of average. Every single reliever with at least 20 IP had a LIPS ERA between 4.00 and 5.00 last year.

David Weathers would be the likely replacement given his time in the role last year, but Jared Burton (EDIT: Added Burton, forgot about him), Bill Bray, Mike Stanton, Jon Coutlangus, and Todd Coffey could be considered.

Rockies
Closer - Manny Corpas
Analysis: Corpas is the clear favorite for the closer's role now, but Brian Fuentes still lurks. There's been talk of a Fuentes trade, which would further solidify Corpas's hold on the role.

Draft day bargains

Here are the guys I see as potential bargains on draft day, guys you should target in the later rounds of your draft (assuming your league isn't ultra-deep).

Rafael Soriano (might be going a bit too soon)
Eric Gagne
Brian Wilson
Tony Pena
Brandon Lyon
Kerry Wood
Carlos Marmol
Heath Bell

Closing thoughts

As I said yesterday, I'm not familiar with every team's minor league relief prospects, so if you think I missed someone, feel free to let me know.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:34pm (0) Comments

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Moving On

I am sorry to report that my previous column will be my last here, as I am moving on to write for another baseball website, and will be joining Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com as a radio host for his weekly baseball radio show at blogtalkradio.com. I appreciate all of the comments I have received, and am astounded at the number of people interested in the blog here. So thanks for reading. Please check out my blog for more details. I hope you will all continue to look me up.

Posted by Patrick DiCaprio at 9:38am (0) Comments

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Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Numbers

Arsenal

Braves defense

2008 outlook

Market value

Conclusions

Concluding thoughts

Saturday, January 05, 2008

Advantages

Players

The steroid stigma

Morality

Performance drop-off

Suspensions

Legal issues

Injury risk

Concluding thoughts

Monday, January 07, 2008

What we should really be thinking about

BALCO guys

Concluding thoughts

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Stat projection parallel

Poker parallel

Back to dollar values

Spend wisely

Concluding thoughts

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Patience

Foiled pitching strategy

Scarcity

Small strategy when faced with inflation

Last bout of shaky decision-making

Value

Flexibility versus patience

Concluding thoughts

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Early round strategy

Early round picks

Early-middle round strategy

Early-middle round picks

Middle round strategy

Middle round picks

Middle-late round strategy

Middle-late round picks

Late round strategy

Late round picks

Concluding thoughts

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

American League

Draft day bargains

Concluding thoughts

Thursday, January 17, 2008

National League

Draft day bargains

Closing thoughts

Sunday, January 20, 2008