May 17, 2008
Rich Barbieri John Barten Sal Baxamusa John Beamer Brian Borawski John Brattain Craig Brown Matthew Carruth Derek Carty Alex Eisenberg Mike Fast David Gassko
Lisa Gray
Brandon Isleib Chris Jaffe Josh Kalk Chris Neault Dave Studeman Steve Treder Bryan Tsao Tuck! John Walsh Geoff Young And here's the full roster.
Or you can search by:
StubHub is where fans buy and sell Yankees Tickets, Red Sox Tickets, White Sox Tickets, Mets Tickets and all other baseball tickets. If you are looking for World Series Tickets, ALCS Tickets or NLCS Tickets, you can find them at StubHub! More hot selling tickets include: Cubs Tickets, Astros Tickets, Dodgers Tickets, Angels Tickets and Detroit Tigers Tickets. Onlineseats is the best stop for Red Sox Tickets, Chicago White Sox Tickets, World Series Tickets, Dodgers Tickets, Minnesota Twins Tickets, St Louis Cardinals tickets, Chicago Cubs Tickets and Detroit Tigers Tickets Gear up for baseball season with Chicago White Sox tickets and New York Yankees tickets. LA Angels tickets, Houston Astros tickets, and Atlanta Braves tickets are hot sellers! You can get Boston Red Sox tickets, San Diego Padres tickets or Chicago Cubs tickets for your favorite baseball fan. Coast to Coast Tickets has the best MLB tickets like Minnesota Twins tickets, LA Dodgers tickets, Milwaukee Brewers tickets, New York Met tickets and St. Louis Cardinals tickets. Let the TicketSpecialists help you locate Boston Red Sox Tickets, Cubs Tickets, New York Yankees and Mets Tickets, Texas Rangers Tickets, Angels Tickets, Orioles Tickets and many Other Baseball Tickets 
All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a
Creative Commons
License.
|
 Tuesday, February 05, 2008Draft strategy: Bottom-filling your rosterWhen preparing for your draft, chances are, the names you’re primarily thinking about are Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, and other guys you’re hoping to land in the first few rounds. But do you really spend any time thinking about the last few rounds? And if you do, is it anything more than an afterthought? One strategy I take going into nearly every single snake draft is that of “bottom-filling my roster.” If I have, say, the 9th overall pick in the draft, unless I know my competition extremely well, I probably won’t be able to zero in on one particular player. It will simply be a matter of seeing who falls to me. And regardless of what pick I have, once the third and fourth rounds come along, there is very little chance I’ll be able to plan with any certainty which players I’m going to get, or even which positions I’m going to fill, unless I’m planning on reaching. Despite this, these are the rounds most people think about in their draft preparations. It is only natural; the first few rounds are where the stars are… where you’re able to make a sexy pick. Honestly, who gets excited when they take Mark Buehrle in Round 20? Not me. But wouldn't you have much more confidence saying, "I'm going to take Mark Buehrle in Round 20" than "I'm going to take Justin Morneau in Round 4"? We need to make sure, that we don’t overlook the importance of these later rounds. For the purpose of this article, we’ll completely ignore how uplifting it can be for a team to snare a guy like Ryan Braun in the twenty-first round and focus solely on the draft preparation benefits you can reap by utilizing this strategy. By preparing for the later rounds first, you can more easily prepare for the early and middle rounds. By having a specific plan for the later rounds, you can adjust to unexpected, early round events that occur during the draft. While it can be difficult to target specific players early in the draft, if you consider the end of the draft, it is much easier to figure out who will be there for you, especially if you’ve done a few mocks. By allowing for certainty at the end of the draft, it makes the uncertainty early on much more manageable. I think the best way to illustrate this strategy is to go over how I’ve been planning for the late rounds this year in a traditional, 12-team mixed league. One of the key components to my draft strategy is to ignore closers for almost the entire draft, the reason for which I’ll discuss in another article. ClosersIn my first mock draft of the year (an experts draft at Mock Draft Central), I didn’t take a closer until Round 18 and still came away with Troy Percival, C.J. Wilson, and Tony Pena. In preparing for drafts, I always pencil in three closers somewhere in these last few rounds: Round 15 – Round 16 – Round 17 – Round 18 – Round 19 – Troy Percival Round 20 – Tony Pena Round 21 – C.J. Wilson Round 22 – Round 23 – Be flexible here. Know that you’re going to take closers in this general area, but don’t get too enamored by any particular one. If you end up with Brandon Lyon, Brian Wilson, and Eric Gagne instead, be happy about it. Or if Rafael Soriano is there in Round 17 or 18, go for it. If you’re in a draft where closers start going off really early, which happened to me in another draft this year, be a little flexible. Realize that lots of closers lose their jobs, and that taking a top setup man with a shot at the closer’s role – like Heath Bell, Rafael Betancourt, or Carlos Marmol – in these rounds is far preferable to reaching for a guy like Percival in Round 14. Far preferable. In the draft I was just talking about, Tony Pena went in Round 12 and Carlos Marmol in Round 14. In these instances, you need to be a little creative. I took George Sherrill in Round 18, who now looks like he’ll be the closer in Baltimore. Closer situations change quickly, and if nothing else, you’ve always got the waiver wire. Starting PitchersAfter penciling in my closers, I like to put a few starters in there, usually two or three. Every year, starters come (seemingly) out of nowhere, netting some lucky owner great profit. Look at Jamie Shields, Kelvim Escobar, Javier Vazquez, Erik Bedard, and Rich Hill, to name a few from last year. That would have been a staff capable of winning the pitching categories outright in many leagues. And those are just the ones that reasonably could have been predicted. There were also guys like Fausto Carmona that really did come out of nowhere or who got really lucky. Sometimes these guys are drafted in the late rounds; sometimes they come off the waiver wire. Either way, the point remains: you don’t need to load up on top starters early. It is important to get a few, but you don’t need five of them. Filling in guys who are either undervalued or have some serious untapped potential in these rounds is a great route to take. Here’s how I might fill them out this year: Round 15 – Round 16 – Round 17 – Jeremy Bonderman Round 18 – Round 19 – Troy Percival Round 20 – Tony Pena Round 21 – C.J. Wilson Round 22 – Greg Maddux Round 23 – Scott Baker Backup options, like with closers, are essential. If someone else is high on these guys and they get taken a few picks before you’d like them, you need a fallback plan. Guys like Kevin Slowey, Clay Buchholz, Andy Sonnanstine, Randy Johnson, Derek Lowe, and Chris Capuano are great choices. Again – as with closers – if someone like Jamie Shields falls this far, feel free to deviate from the plan. Second catcherIn years when I think I can get #1 catcher production out of my #2 catcher and take him in one of these rounds, I like to pencil him in here as well. This year, Geovany Soto – who I discussed the merits of at THT Fantasy Focus back in November – fits the bill. Alternatives could include Chris Snyder and J.R. Towles, but don’t reach too far for them. Soto after Round 12 wouldn’t be bad, but don’t go too crazy. Most second catchers provide very similar production to each other, so only reach if you think one of them can provide the production of a #1 catcher. Round 15 – Geovany Soto Round 16 – Round 17 – Jeremy Bonderman Round 18 – Round 19 – Troy Percival Round 20 – Tony Pena Round 21 – C.J. Wilson Round 22 – Greg Maddux Round 23 –Scott Baker Very specific targetsEach year, I find myself targeting one or two very specific players who, for whatever reason, I think are falling well below where their true value lies. This year, these players are Frank Thomas and Francisco Liriano. This is actually the second year in a row I’ve been targeting Thomas. While he is getting older and can only fill your utility spot, he still has a stable skill set and excellent power. I cannot believe how he keeps going overlooked. His value is different in every league, though, so don’t be afraid to take him a little early. If you think he is a good value in, say, the tenth round, don’t be afraid to pencil him in a little earlier than where I have him on the list below. Facing certain conditions, I’ve taken him as early as Round 12 and been okay with it. Liriano is a guy I profiled back in November at THT Fantasy Focus, and one that I absolutely love. In that article, I said, “How many players can strike out 10 batters per game, walk under 3, and have a nearly elite ground ball rate? Umm... one. Francisco Liriano.” I would not be surprised at all if he winds up as a top five fantasy starter this year. As such, I’ve made it a point to try and get him in every draft. This extends a little beyond “bottom-filling,” but it’s worth mentioning because it deals with the same concepts. I usually take Liriano in Round 10 or 11. Just be careful; the value of a guy like Liriano is vastly different depending on who you talk to. If he is gone before you want him, have a good backup pitcher ready or your staff might not start out quite as strong as you’d like. Worse case scenario, you trade one of your hitters for another pitcher. Round 11 – Francisco Liriano … Round 15 – Geovany Soto Round 16 – Frank Thomas Round 17 – Jeremy Bonderman Round 18 – Round 19 – Troy Percival Round 20 – Tony Pena Round 21 – C.J. Wilson Round 22 – Greg Maddux Round 23 – Scott Baker High-risk playerThe final component of this strategy is an optional adjustment. This entails filling an empty round or two (Round 18, in this case) with a top prospect. You don’t need to make a commitment to this before the draft; decide once the time comes and you have seen how the early and middle rounds shake out. Maybe you won’t find any good-valued shortstops early on, and you’ll have to use this round on your starter. But if you’ve got most of your spots filled, a prospect with star potential could be an excellent choice here. A few guys to target this year include Evan Longoria, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Colby Rasmus, or even a Brandon Wood or Andy LaRoche type. If your draft is extended to allow for bench players, making a few picks like this is an excellent strategy (and consequently, one I’ll discuss in more depth later on). Round 11 – Francisco Liriano … Round 15 – Geovany Soto Round 16 – Frank Thomas Round 17 – Jeremy Bonderman Round 18 – Evan Longoria Round 19 – Troy Percival Round 20 – Tony Pena Round 21 – C.J. Wilson Round 22 – Greg Maddux Round 23 – Scott Baker Final rosterImplementing all of these changes (ignoring the optional component) would give you a roster that looks like this: C – C – Geovany Soto 1B – 2B – 3B – SS – CI – MI – OF – OF – OF – OF – OF – UT – Frank Thomas P – P – P – Francisco Liriano P – Jeremy Bonderman P – C.J. Wilson P – Brandon Lyon P – Heath Bell P – Greg Maddux P – Scott Baker Having this filled out before the big day arrives can be hugely important to your success at the draft table. By doing this, we’ve filled out 7/9 of our pitching staff. Now, we will only need to decide on when to take our two top starters (which we can decide on during the draft as we see how the market develops), and then we can go “best hitter available” everywhere else. AuctionsAs a side note, be aware that this strategy can also work in auctions. Set aside a certain amount of money for each player or a certain amount for groups of players (i.e. $7 for closers, however it is distributed). Be sure not to be so focused on this, though, that you miss out on bargains in the middle tier of players. Auctions give you greater roster flexibility, so use it in conjunction with bottom-filling. Use plenty of these guys... Contingency plansMake sure you have plenty of contingency plans. Filling out the end of the draft like this is pretty easy because there are vastly differing opinions about these late round players. That means most owners aren't even considering your guys. All it takes, though, is one owner to take a player early for you to lose out. Have plenty of backup plans with this same type of structure to account for all scenarios. One of the most important ones to account for this year is someone taking Geovany Soto earlier than expected. Figure out where you would take your backup options if this scenario plays out (hint: late, unless you think they can give #1 catcher production). Strategy summarySummarizing the benefits of this plan:
Closing thoughtsHopefully I've conveyed this point by now, but if not, let me make it perfectly clear: this strategy is not to be taken as gospel. Use this strategy as a means of more easily handling the earlier rounds. Be flexible. If something better comes along, take advantage of it. If C.C. Sabathia, Dan Haren, and John Smoltz are there in Rounds 13, 14, and 15, you sure as heck better take them, even if you already have a couple of top starters. And make sure you have plenty of contingency plans. You don't want to arrive in Round 18 and have all your targets gone already. Expect plenty more strategy articles through February and March as we approach Draft Day. Posted by Derek Carty at 4:00pm Wednesday, February 06, 2008Using Leverage Index to identify closer candidatesA couple of weeks ago, I posted AL and NL Closer Watch articles. In those articles, I talked about the current closer for each team and the guys who could overtake him, either by merit or injury opportunity. Today, I'd like to talk about a new tool that I believe can be helpful in determining these "closers in waiting." The tool is called Leverage Index. What Leverage Index does is measure the relative importance of a given situation that a player performs in. Essentially, is the player performing in a critical situation that will affect the outcome of the game (e.x. 9th inning, 3-2 game) or a situation that doesn't matter much (e.x. 9th inning, 10-1 game)? For relievers, this is incredibly useful as it gives us some objective information about manager tendencies. We know how managers use their closers, but it isn't always obvious how he handles the rest of the bullpen. Leverage Index tells us exactly how each reliever is used. Fan Graphs tracks Leverage Index in several forms, but I think the most useful one, for our purposes, is Average Leverage Index when Entering the Game (gmLI). What I believe this will tell us is how much a manager trusts a particular reliever in important situations. This could be a conscious thing the manager is doing or an unconscious one; either way, it can give us valuable insights into how he views the various members of his bullpen. Logic would dictate that the ones he trusts most would find themselves atop the list of replacements should a new closer be needed. Many times, Leverage Index will mesh with our skills analysis of a reliever. For example, in 2007, Rafael Betancourt was clearly the most skilled reliever on the Indians. His gmLI was also the highest on the team. Other times, though, we may find a manager who does things... differently. Maybe this is a manager who doesn't really understand either who his best relievers are or that they should be used in the most critical situations. The Phillies, last year, provided one such example of this 'differently thinking manager'. Brett Myers had the highest gmLI as the closer, followed by Tom Gordon. But when both were injured, there arose a need for a new closer. I don't have the Leverage Index numbers for specific dates, but on the whole, Antonio Alfonseca had the third highest gmLI among Phillies relievers with at least 20 IP. Among this same group of six relievers (excluding Myers and Gordon), Alfonseca had the worst LIPS ERA. Hearing that Myers was injured but without news of his replacement, if we were trying to beat our fellow owners to the waiver wire, Leverage Index would have told us that Alfonseca was manager Charlie Manuel's most trusted reliever. Sometimes, that is more important than actual skill. In this case it was, as Alfonseca took the reins and managed to get 8 saves. Drafting guys with good skills will often lead to finding the replacement closer, but we must not ignore the most important component of saves: opportunity. Players will only be able to accumulate a lot of saves if they are given the chance. And that's where Leverage Index can help us. It shows us how managers are using their secondary relievers and could provide some valuable insights into who the real "closer in waiting" might be. Here are a few murky situations for 2008 and how 2007 Leverage Index (gmLI) views them. Angels There's been talk that Justin Speier may have overtaken Scot Shields as the #2 in Anaheim. Leverage Index? 1.52 — Scot Shields 1.41 — Justin Speier Astros In a barren bullpen, who becomes the #2? Geoff Geary and Oscar Villarreal are now on board, but without them, here was last year's breakdown: 1.22 — Trever Miller (EDIT: Just realized Miller is a free agent. Signed with TB.) 0.97 — Dave Borkowski Braves 1.06 — Tyler Yates 0.97 — Manny Acosta 0.86 — Peter Moylan Despite a 5.18 ERA, Yates had the highest gmLI and also had a 3.98 LIPS ERA. Perhaps Bobby Cox realized how good he was. Could be a darkhorse, especially since Moylan wasn't used very much in tough spots. Cubs One of the most interesting bullpen situations going into 2008. 1.60 — Bob Howry 1.14 — Carlos Marmol 0.73 — Mike Wuertz 0.63 — Scott Eyre 0.45 — Kerry Wood Diamondbacks Two real candidates here. Who did Bob Melvin favor in 2007? 1.54 — Brandon Lyon 1.40 — Tony Pena Mariners With news George Sherrill might be traded, who would be next in line to replace J.J. Putz? 1.47 — Sean Green 1.28 — Brandon Morrow Marlins Who comes after Kevin Gregg? 1.31 — Taylor Tankersley 1.25 — Renyel Pinto 1.12 — Justin Miller 1.11 — Matt Lindstrom 1.09 — Lee Gardner 1.09 — Henry Owens When looking at these, remember that they are last year's numbers and that things can change quickly. Managers can develop new favorites, new players can be signed, and new roles can be developed. This can help with draft prep, but once the season starts, it will be important to see how relievers are being utilized in the first month or two, especially for teams who have added new relievers to their bullpens. Also, keep in mind that this is not absolute. Just because a player is used in more critical situations doesn't mean he is automatically going to be the favorite for saves. We need to immerse ourselves in as much information as possible and try to make out what's really going on. Remember that this is simply one such piece of information, albeit a potentially important one. Closing thoughtsHopefully this will prove to be a useful tool this year, and one that helps us identify saves candidates before the other owners in our league. Look for updated "Closer watch" reports in the coming days utilizing this information and accounting for developing situations. Posted by Derek Carty at 10:42am Friday, February 08, 2008Fantasy fallout: Erik Bedard to SeattleIt's official. Erik Bedard has finally been traded to the Mariners. After weeks of speculation, it's done. Let's take a look at how each player involved is affected. Mariners get: SP Erik Bedard Orioles get: OF Adam Jones, RP George Sherrill, SP Chris Tillman, SP Tony Butler, and RP Kam Mickolio. Value changes: Bedard gains a little value. Jones gains value. Sherrill gains value. Mickolio loses a little value. Tillman and Butler are relatively unaffected. Mariners indirectly affected: SP/RP Brandon Morrow loses value. SP Horacio Ramirez loses value. RP Sean Green gains value. OF Brad Wilkerson gains value. Orioles indirectly affected: SP Garrett Olson gains value. SP Hayden Penn gains value. SP Troy Patton, SP Matt Albers, and SP/RP Brian Burres gain value. RP Jamie Walker loses value. RP Chad Bradford loses value. RP Greg Aquino loses value. RP James Hoey, RP Cory Doyne, and RP Fernando Cabrera lose value. OF Jay Payton loses value. 2B Brian Roberts, OF Luke Scott, OF Nick Markakis all gain a little value. 1B/3B Aubrey Huff loses just a little value. Analysis: Erik BedardErik Bedard is a very good pitcher. In 2007, he led all starting pitchers with a 3.13 LIPS ERA while striking out just under 11 batters per game and walking under 3. He might not be able to repeat those strikeout figures, though, considering he had a consistent K/9 between 7.84 and 7.94 from 2004-2006. 2007 was also his first year with a BB/9 under 3.00. He's still just 29 years, but has never thrown more than 197 innings. As far as his value shift from this trade is concerned, though, it looks favorable. Camden increased homers by 19% in 2007 and by 10% since 2005. Safeco increased homers by just 2% in 2007 and reduced them by 9% since 2005. That's a 19% swing in home run reduction. The THT Season Preview has both offenses producing similarly (when we look at them without this trade), so there's little 'win value' gained or lost. There's a chance the Orioles trade Brian Roberts, though, and the dropoff to Freddy Bynum is pretty significant, which improves Bedard's value a bit. The THT Season Preview also sees the two defenses as very similar, so there shouldn't be much 'BABIP value' gained or lost either. Overall, it looks like Bedard gains some value from this. He should give up fewer home runs while receiving similar offensive and defensive support. He doesn't gain as much value as Johan Santana did from his trade, but you can still move Bedard up your draft board a few spots. Adam JonesAfter Bedard, Adam Jones is the next most significant piece of this deal. His batting average, homers, and steals all figure to be better in Baltimore than they would in Seattle. Between the two parks, we see a 29% upward swing in right-handed hitter home runs since 2005. We also see a 10% upward swing in right-handed hitter batting average since 2005. While John McLaren (Mariners) and Dave Trembley (Orioles) took over their respective teams in the middle of 2007 — meaning we have a pretty small sample size to work with — their stolen base tendencies are favorable for Jones. McLaren had his team attempt just 0.67 steals per game compared to Trembley's 1.33 steals per game. Granted, this was an Orioles team that had Brian Roberts, Corey Patterson, and Nick Markakis, but as least Trembley isn't afraid to run with his fast players. Patterson is gone, and if they lose Roberts, he might let Jones run more. He also probably gains value in RBI and runs. MLB.com had him projected to bat 7th for Seattle, but he could easily move into the cleanup spot for Baltimore, pushing Aubrey Huff down to 5th. Losing Roberts would hurt his RBI production a little bit, but the improved spot in the order would compensate for it. If Roberts is traded, he could also be moved into the #1 or #2 spot, which would help with runs but hurt with RBIs and his overall value. Regardless, Jones looks like he gains value all-around. Pitchers indirectly affectedGeorge Sherrill gets a big boost from this trade. He goes from waiting behind perhaps the most dominant closer in baseball, J.J. Putz, to the favorite for saves in Baltimore. There is plenty of depth in the Baltimore bullpen (all of whom lose value with this trade) and could get overtaken, but he's the guy with the best skills and the inside track for the job. In Seattle, this means a new #2 is needed in the bullpen. Sean Green is the favorite, although with Bedard in the rotation, Brandon Morrow will likely stay in the bullpen as competition. This hurts Morrow's value overall, but there's a chance he finds himself saving games in 2008. Horacio Ramirez is also probably out of the rotation, sapping him of value. With Bedard leaving, Garrett Olson should be able to claim a rotation spot. He's showed some talent in the minors and should be watched carefully. He'll battle with Troy Patton, Hayden Penn, and Matt Albers for two spots, and I think he's the surest of the four to get one. Brian Burres might also be in the mix. Many are saying Patton is the favorite for the final spot, but his peripherals were pretty bad in the minors. Even if he does make it, Penn could easily replace him shortly into the season. He seems to have the better skills. Everything being said, my money is on Olson and Penn to throw the most starter innings of the bunch. Hitters indirectly affectedThe biggest beneficiary of this trade is Brad Wilkerson. He should have right field all to himself with Jones gone. Safeco isn't the friendliest place for home runs, but Wilkerson will hit more starting than coming off the bench. Jay Payton, conversely, stands to lose the most from this trade with Jones taking over center, pushing him to the bench. If Jones is installed in the #4 or #5 spot in Baltimore's order, the batters ahead of him would probably get a slight boost in runs. If Aubrey Huff (currently projected to bat #4) is pushed back a spot, he'd lose some at-bats and a few ticks off his counting stats... nothing major. If Brian Roberts is traded and Jones ends up batting first or second, whoever is behind him would likely lose a few RBIs. ProspectsMickolo moves to Baltimore where the bullpen is very crowded. He loses a little value. Tillman and Butler have never pitched an inning of Double-A ball, so their value is relatively unaffected. Posted by Derek Carty at 4:16pm Saturday, February 09, 2008Closer watch: American LeagueSome bullpen situations have changed over the past few weeks, and we're now taking Leverage Index into consideration, so let's take another look at the bullpen situations for each team. American LeagueAngels - Updated - Closer - Francisco Rodriguez Analysis: Unless K-Rod gets injured, he should be the closer. If he does, you need to watch Scot Shields and Justin Speier. I'd heard some talk that Speier was the new #2, but he wasn't last year according to Leverage Index (1.52 to 1.41). Things could definitely change, so watch it closely in April. As far as talent and age are concerned, the two are comparable. If I'm buying one, it's Shields right now: longer record of good skills, was the #2 last year. Athletics - Updated - Closer - Huston Street Analysis: A trade is possible and there are still some injury concerns, but if Street's on the team and healthy, he's the closer. Next in line would be Justin Duchscherer if he isn't moved to the rotation. I can't believe I left out Alan Embree last time, but he's #3. If Duchscherer is moved to the rotation, the A's have several other quality options. I like newly acquired Joey Devine, but Santiago Casilla (1.42 gmLI) had a prominent role in last year's pen. Andrew Brown showed some skills last year, but his gmLI was just 0.93. That might improve in his sophomore year, though. Definitely an interesting bullpen to watch if Street doesn't prove healthy or is traded. Blue Jays - Updated - Closer - Jeremy Accardo/B.J. Ryan Analysis: Reports are saying that Ryan could be ready by the start of the season, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in May and the 18-month mark won't come until after the 2008 season ends. He's already throwing, and the Jays certainly want him back before then, but I'm worried they're rushing him. We already know from last year that J.P. Ricciardi can lie like the best of them, and he seems to be inching towards retracting his former claim already. The most recent from Ricciardi: "[Ryan] threw his second bullpen recently. Until I'm told different, he'll be with us in spring training and ready to start the season. If we have to hold him back a month based on what we see, we'll do that." Jeremy Accardo could be a great value, as I think there's a real chance Ryan doesn't return for a while or comes back ineffective. Casey Janssen would be next in line unless Ryan is healthy, in which case Ricciardi said he would like to move Janssen to the rotation. Brandon League should be back and healthy this year, so he could wind up as the #2 if Janssen moves to the rotation and Ryan ends up being ineffective and is deactivated. That might be a bit of a stretch, though. Devil Rays Closer - Troy Percival Analysis: Manager Joe Maddon has committed to Percival as his closer, but Al Reyes and Dan Wheeler are hanging around if he bombs. They are both candidates to be traded, possibly into closer roles, so they should be on your radar and make decent picks in deeper leagues. Indians - Updated - Closer - Joe Borowski Analysis: Borowski's skills are modest, to say the least, and Rafael Betancourt has continued to be a dominant reliever. I would not be surprised at all if this is the year he becomes the team's full-time closer. One of the better AL setup men to speculate on. Japanese newcomer Masahide Kobayashi could be the #3, although I'm not sure he's draftable with Betancourt around. Rafael Perez was #3 in Leverage Index last year (1.41) and showed great skills, so if you're going to take a third Indian reliever, he might be the one to get. Mariners - Updated - Closer - J.J. Putz Analysis: Putz is downright amazing, and there should be no question who the closer in Seattle is while he's healthy. George Sherrill was next in line until he was traded to Baltimore, which now leaves their #2 a little uncertain. Sean Green was next in Leverage Index last year (1.47) followed by Brandon Morrow (1.28). It looks like Morrow will remain in the bullpen following the recent trade with the Orioles, so watch how he and Green are used in April and May. I'd put my money on Green as the #2 for now. Orioles - Updated - Closer - George Sherrill Analysis: With the recent trade, the Orioles' closer situation seems to have been resolved. Sherrill is the favorite for the job, but there are some decent guys behind him. Jamie Walker is a possibility as the closer in waiting, but the Orioles tried really hard to keep him in a setup role last year when Chris Ray went down. Ray and Danys Baez are out for the year, so count them out. Chad Bradford is the second veteran contender, and he led the team in Leverage Index last year (1.74). Youngsters like Jim Hoey, Cory Doyne, or even Fernando Cabrera could also be options. Perhaps the most likely option of all, aside from Sherrill, is Greg Aquino. He's shown decent skills in the National League, but the switch to the American League and his proclivity for walks and homers might be too much for him to hold onto the job for long, even if he does get a crack at it at some point. Sherrill should be drafted in all leagues, and you could speculate on some of the other guys in deeper leagues if you wish. Rangers Closer - C.J. Wilson Analysis: Akinori Otsuka was non-tendered and is now said to be undergoing some sort of surgery, so he becomes much less of a threat to come back and challenge Wilson. Joaquin Benoit is another possibility, but the Rangers favored Wilson in the second-half of 2007. He's the guy to own right now, and he's been one of the last few closers off the board in many mock drafts. I see good value here. The Rangers signed Eddie Guardado and Masahide Kobayashi from Japan, so if Wilson does lose the job one of these guys is a possibility to step up. Red Sox Closer - Jonathan Papelbon Analysis: Papelbon is the man in Boston, and if he gets injured Hideki Okajima would be next in line. Royals - Updated - Closer - Joakim Soria Analysis: There was talk of moving Soria to the rotation, but that doesn't seem likely to happen anymore. They didn't get Dotel back, and they don't have much else in the pen. If Soria gets hurt, you could watch Ron Mahay, Jimmy Gobble, Joel Peralta, or Yasuhiko Yabuta as potential replacements. You could also add Brett Tomko to the list, although he'll initially be competing for a spot in the rotation. Tigers - Updated - Closer - Todd Jones Analysis: Jones really had an awful year, skills-wise, and it's hard to see him lasting another year in the closer's role. Joel Zumaya might actually be back by mid-season, but it would take several successive events for him to overtake Jones. Worth a flier in deep leagues, though, because of his talent and Jones's lack thereof. Fernando Rodney, right now, represents the biggest threat to Jones until Zumaya proves his health. I remember hearing reluctance from the Tigers on moving him into the closer's role, but he's an okay guy to speculate on. Twins - Updated - Closer - Joe Nathan Analysis: Another really stable closer situation. If Nathan gets hurt, it might get a little fuzzy. On the surface, you'd think Pat Neshek was second in line. Great numbers last year, second on the team (behind Nathan) in Leverage Index (1.40). From manager Ron Gardenhire, on July 5, 2007: "[Neshek] has the mentality. He has the 'no fear' to go to the ninth inning. Absolutely, no doubt. How long can he maintain that, you just don't know. You just put him out there and let him try. But, yes, he has the makeup for that." From manager Ron Gardenhire, on December 3, 2007: "I think [Neshek] could do the job part time, but no, we think he still has some things to learn, still get better at getting both sides of the plate out, all those things. That's not an option that we're looking at. If we were forced into it, we would try a lot of different things. I don't count on him as my closer, no." Seems like he envisions him in that role in the future, but not right now. If Nathan is traded in July, maybe he'll have decided that Neshek is ready by then. If not, Matt Guerrier, Juan Rincon, and maybe Jesse Crain are other guys you could watch. Guerrier had a gmLI of 1.07 and Rincon's was 0.97. Crain didn't throw many innings (16.1), but had a 1.17 gmLI in that small sample size. His skills weren't great, though, and he's more of a darkhorse. White Sox - Updated - Closer - Bobby Jenks Analysis: Jenks is the closer, but if he goes down, newly signed Octavio Dotel would probably be in line for the job. If Dotel gets injured — which is entirely possible — Scott Linebrink, another off-season signee, would probably be #3. He showed serious skills deterioration in 2007 with the Padres, but he appeared to bounce back in 25 innings with the Brewers. Mike MacDougal could be #4. With the uncertainty around Dotel and Linebrink, there's an off-chance he could end up having value this year, especially when you consider that he led the 2007 Sox with a 1.82 gmLI. Yankees Closer - Mariano Rivera Analysis: While the Yankees are saying they could start Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen to start the year to keep his innings down, don't expect him to take the closer's job unless Rivera gets hurt. If Rivera does get hurt, there's a chance Joba could stay the whole year in the pen. If Rivera gets hurt after Joba has a spot in the rotation sealed, LaTroy Hawkins or maybe Kyle Farnsworth would be the top candidates to replace him. Draft day bargainsHere are the guys I see as bargains on draft day, guys you should target in the later rounds of your draft (assuming your league isn't ultra-deep).
This list will be update throughout Spring Training as bullpen situations or the Average Draft Position reports change. Posted by Derek Carty at 2:00pm Sunday, February 10, 2008Closer watch: National LeagueSome bullpen situations have changed over the past few weeks, and we're now taking Leverage Index into consideration, so let's take another look at the bullpen situations for each team. National LeagueAstros - Updated - Closer - Jose Valverde Analysis: The Astros traded for Valverde for a reason. They weren't confident in Brad Lidge but still felt like they needed a good closer. Valverde fills that need, and he likely won't be replaced unless he gets injured. Since mid-2007, the Astros have traded Lidge, Dan Wheeler, and Chad Qualls, leaving them with few other quality relievers. If Valverde gets injured, off-season signee Geoff Geary might become the guy to own. Of the remnants of the 2007 bullpen, Dave Borkowski had the highest gmLI, 0.97. Braves - Updated - Closer - Rafael Soriano Analysis: Soriano is the man in Atlanta, although Mike Gonzalez is expected to be back in the middle of the season. I had originally though Peter Moylan was probably next in line until the Braves are confident Gonzalez is fully healthy, but upon deeper investigation found that he was just fifth in gmLI last year (0.80). He was used the most often (90 IP), but was also pretty lucky (1.80 ERA to 4.41 LIPS ERA). In 2007, Manny Acosta was second behind Soriano with a 1.18 gmLI, and Tyler Yates was third with a 1.05 gmLI. Watch this situation carefully in the opening weeks of the season. In the event of an injury, Soriano's replacement is not clear at the moment. Brewers Closer - Eric Gagne Analysis: I haven't heard an official announcement yet, but it's difficult to see the Brewers giving Eric Gagne $10 million without giving him first crack at — and a pretty long leash with — the closer's role. Still, there's been talk that it could be Derrick Turnbow. I'm drafting Gagne, although Turnbow is a decent setup guy to speculate on. David Riske is probably #3 in the Milwaukee pen. They also have Salomon Torres, Seth McClung, and Guillermo Mota, but it would take a lot for them to get involved in the saves mix. Cardinals - Updated - Closer - Jason Isringhausen Analysis: Isringhausen has got a firm hold on the job, but he also has an injury history. Ryan Franklin is listed as the top setup man right now and was second behind Izzy with a 1.27 gmLI in 2007, although Russ Springer and Randy Flores showed better skills. Franklin is the #2 for now, but that could change. Cubs - Updated - Closer - Open Analysis: Kerry Wood is probably the favorite for the role, although Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry are also in the mix. Some nice insight from Rotoworld: "For the second year in a row, the 30-year-old opted to stay with the Cubs despite promises of more interesting offers elsewhere. In return, the Cubs figure to give him the first shot at taking over their closer's role." I'd take a late round flier on Wood, although Marmol is much more talented and could just as easily have the role all to himself by mid-season. Both are worth taking in medium-depth leagues, and Howry is a decent pick in deeper leagues. Marmol is younger, more talented, and a sexier choice, but keep in mind that Howry led the Cubs in gmLI in 2007 with a 1.60 mark. Marmol's was 1.14. We could see a shift, though, as Marmol gains more trust and experience in 2008. Diamondbacks - Updated - Closer - Brandon Lyon Analysis: Lyon has officially been declared the closer, as some had speculated. I've heard Lenny Melnick say on a couple of occasions that he thinks the D-backs prefer Lyon because Pena is more capable of pitching two innings while they don't believe Lyon can. Lyon was once a starter, although he only threw 2+ innings three times last year. He did lead the team's remaining relievers in gmLI last year, though, with a 1.54 gmLI. If Lyon goes down or doesn't perform well (entirely possible, given his 4.62 LIPS ERA in 2007), Tony Pena could be next in line. Chad Qualls is more talented, though, and could just as easily fill in. Draft Lyon now, but don't be afraid to take Qualls or Pena in deeper leagues. Dodgers - Updated - Closer - Takashi Saito Analysis: One of the most top heavy pens in baseball. Saito is the closer and was excellent in 2007, but he will be 38 on opening day and has some real talent behind him. Jonathan Broxton is the biggest concern, although Jonathan Meloan is also good. Broxton is so good that he has a little value based on skills alone, and if he ends up as the closer he would be quite valuable. Giants Closer - Brian Wilson Analysis: Brad Hennessey was the closer for most of 2007, but Wilson got 6 saves after August 20. Hennessey got 7 saves in this time frame, although Manager Bruce Bochy has said Wilson is likely to be his closer. He's shown problems with his control in the minors and hasn't put up much better than a league average strikeout rate in the majors. He is worth speculating on, but be aware that he could easily lose the job with a poor start. Hennessey is still around, as is Tyler Walker, so he has competition. Marlins - Updated - Closer - Kevin Gregg Analysis: Crowded bullpen in Florida. Gregg is the closer, but he has plenty of competition. Taylor Tankersley was talked about as a potential closer last off-season, but he had a less-than-stellar 2007 after starting the year on the DL. Still, he led the team (excluding Gregg) with a 1.31 gmLI. Renyel Pinto was next with a 1.25 gmLI. The difference in gmLI among the rest of the guys wasn't significant, ranging from 1.09 to 1.12. These options include Justin Miller — who actually had the best LIPS ERA of the entire bullpen in 2007 — Matt Lindstrom, Lee Gardner, and Henry Owens, who had the job a little in 2007, but whose his skills haven't translated to the majors yet. Gregg is the guy to own, but pay close attention to how the others are used in April. Mets - Updated - Closer - Billy Wagner Analysis: Wagner has the spot locked down, but if he gets hurt Aaron Heilman could step in. I forgot to mention Duaner Sanchez last time, who could be in the mix if he proves he's healthy. Dark horse candidate is Joe Smith, who I absolutely love in the long-term. Nationals - Updated - Closer - Chad Cordero Analysis: Cordero has the spot locked down, although a trade is a definite possibility, as it has been for a while now. Jon Rauch is the likely #2, although there's talk that he could be traded as well. After those two, Saul Rivera had the highest gmLI: 1.28. After that you had Jesus Colome with a 1.11 gmLI and Luis Ayala with a 1.05 mark. Once highly-touted Ryan Wagner could be a dark horse candidate. Padres Closer - Trevor Hoffman Analysis: I have a hard time seeing the Pads turning away from Hoffman, but Heath Bell is dynamite, and Cla Meredith is talented as well. Hoffman will likely go too high to be drafted, but Bell is a decent guy to speculate on late. Phillies - Updated - Closer - Brad Lidge Analysis: People are concerned about Lidge in Citizens Bank Park given his 16% and 13% HR/FB in 2006 and 2007, respectively. Still, from 2003-2005 it was never higher than 10%. It won't be that low in 2008, but it would take a decent-sized implosion for the Phils to switch gears on him. Tom Gordon is most likely second in line. After that, it's anyone's guess really. After all, manager Charlie Manual used Antonio Alfonseca in the role for a while in 2007. If it's not Alfonseca, J.C. Romero maybe? Ryan Madson had the best LIPS ERA in the Phillies bullpen last year (aside from Brett Myers), so he might be a better guess. Looking at 2007 gmLI, Alfonseca's was 1.45, Mike Zagurski's was 1.26 (though he had just 21 IP), and Madson's was 1.06. Romero's was 1.14, but that includes 20 innings with the Red Sox. Pirates - Updated - Closer - Matt Capps Analysis: Capps has the job secured. Damaso Marte is probably the #2, but you don't need to worry too much about him unless Capps gets hurt. John Grabow might be an option too, as he had an identical gmLI to Marte in 2007 (1.17). Reds - Updated - Closer - Francisco Cordero Analysis: Cordero is absolutely the closer, but all the same characters from last year are still around. None are good enough to overthrow him, but if he gets hurt there could be a battle. That bullpen is chock full of average. Every single reliever with at least 20 IP had a LIPS ERA between 4.00 and 5.00 last year. David Weathers is the likely replacement given his time in the role last year, but there are several other unspectacular relievers hanging around. By 2007 gmLI: Gary Majewski (1.46), Mike Stanton (1.24), Jon Coutlangus (1.17), Jared Burton (1.07), Todd Coffey (0.98). Bill Bray could also be involved, although he only threw just 14.1 major league innings in 2007. Rockies Closer - Manny Corpas Analysis: Corpas is the clear favorite for the closer's role now, but Brian Fuentes still lurks. There's been talk of a Fuentes trade, which would further solidify Corpas's hold on the role. Draft day bargainsHere are the guys I see as potential bargains on draft day, guys you should target in the later rounds of your draft (assuming your league isn't ultra-deep).
Posted by Derek Carty at 8:00pm Thursday, February 14, 2008K/BB revisited: Switch to Run ImpactIn my article from a few weeks ago, entitled "K/BB ratios: Does it matter how a pitcher does it?," I hinted at my displeasure with the K/BB statistic. It's intention is fantastic, but its implementation isn't as good as it could be. It is misleading. Strikeouts and walks are crucial statistics for a pitcher. You know that much by now. But they do not have an identical impact on a pitcher's ability to prevent runs. They have different measures of importance, which K/BB does not account for. K/BB compares the two at face value, which simply is not an accurate depiction of a pitcher's ability to maximize run prevention by accumulating strikeouts and limiting walks. Look at the formula for FIP, one of the most basic ERA estimators:
As you can see, the weighting is different for strikeouts and walks. Now consider that this formula was developed in 2001. Why are we still using K/BB as one of our primary evaluators of pitcher skill when its flaw has so long been understood? Quite frankly, I'm not sure, which is why I plan on using a different statistic from this point forward. In place of K/BB ratio, I'll now be referring to a pitcher's run impact derived from strikeouts and walks (K-BB RI seems like a simple abbreviation, but if you guys can think of a better one, feel free to let me know!). What this does is measures the relative impact a pitcher's strikeouts and walks — combined — have on his runs allowed. In other words, it quantifies how much a pitcher gains (in terms of runs) from his combined strikeout and walk rates. To calculate it, you first determine how many strikeouts, walks, and batted balls occurred per major league game. Next, multiply each event by it's corresponding relative run value, giving you runs per game. For batted balls, you need to back-calculate runs per game using total league average runs per game and runs per game on strikeouts and walks. You also back-calculate batted balls per game by subtracting strikeouts and walks per game from total batters faced per game. Divide runs per game (on batted balls) by batted balls per game to get a relative run value on batted balls. For each individual pitcher, you then multiply his strikeout, walk, and batted ball per game figures by each event's relative run value. After doing this, you get a runs per game figure for each event. Add them up. Subtract this number from league average runs per game, and you arrive at the impact strikeouts and walks have on a pitcher's runs allowed. Here are a couple of lists from 2007, measuring the leaders and trailers in K-BB RI: Leaders
Trailers
Concluding thoughtsAs we would expect, those with good strikeout and walk rates are at the top of the list, and those with poor strikeout and walk rates are at the bottom. This simply gives us a better way of quantifying exactly how valuable the combination of strikeouts and walks are. One day soon, we'll check out some guys who are looked at in a better light with K-BB RI than they were using K/BB and visa-versa. If you have any questions, feel free to let me know! Posted by Derek Carty at 8:00am Saturday, February 16, 2008Are saves predictable?I've heard people talking this year—even some experts— about how a guy like Joakim Soria is a good closer to draft because the Royals are improving, or how Todd Jones is a good pick because of how stacked the Detroit offense has become. For me, I need some real evidence before I make assertions like this. So, let's run some tests to see if saves actually are predictable. I see two necessary steps to take if we are going to predict saves. We first need to predict how many save opportunities a team will produce for its closer. Then, we need to predict how often the closer will convert these opportunities into actual saves. Predicting save opportunitiesIf we're trying to predict saves, first we need to predict save opportunities. If a pitcher isn't given the chance to save games, then he won't accumulate many saves, will he? Once we so that, (if we are able to predict save opportunities, that is), then we can predict how often closers convert these opportunities. Let's run some simple regressions analysis to try to predict save opportunities. For each of our tests, we'll use team data (as opposed to individual player data) from 2004-2007. First, we'll check if a team's wins have any bearing on the save opportunities it produces. Wins on Save Opportunities R Square: 0.15 Adjusted R Square: 0.14 P-value: 1.2E-05 Level of Significance: 1% As you see, there is some correlation between wins and saves, but it is pretty weak. It can be inferred that wins are only marginally effective in predicting save opportunities. Maybe a team's offense is what does it, as the people who claim Todd Jones will pick up more saves believe. Let's run the test on teams' runs scored and save opportunities. Runs Produced on Save Opportunities R Square: 0.007 Adjusted R Square: -0.001 P-value: 0.35 Level of Significance: Not significant Wow. There seems to be zero connection between a team's offensive production and the save opportunities it produces. Let's see if the number of runs a team's pitching allows has anything to do with save opportunities. Runs Allowed on Save Opportunities R Square: 0.06 Adjusted R Square: 0.06 P-value: 0.006 Level of Significance: 1% Better than offensive runs, but worse than wins. I'll spare you 18 more sets of regressions analysis results, but I ran these same types of tests using a multitude of factors. For example, I thought maybe teams that hit a lot of singles and steal a lot of bases (in an attempt to represent "small-ball" clubs) might be better at producing save opportunities. After tons of tests like this, wins remained the best way to go. Predicting save conversion percentageWhile we didn't get the best results when we tried to predict save opportunities, we do have something to work with. Let's now see how well we can predict save conversion percentage. Save conversion percentage simply measures how often a pitcher turns a save opportunity into an actual save. Here is the formula: Saves/(Saves+Blown Saves). Let's run some more regressions tests, this time using individual players from 2004-2007. We'll use ERA as the independent variable and save percentage as the dependent variable. We'll include all players who received at least 25 save opportunities in a given year. ERA on Save Percentage R Square: 0.34 Adjusted R Square: 0.33 P-value: 5.02E-10 Level of Significance: 1% We definitely have significant results, but the relationship between the two is still pretty weak. It's better than when we tried to predict raw save opportunities, but still not very good. The big questionThe big question is, are saves really predictable? Does team performance or player performance have anything to do with saves? These results seem to indicate that both do play a role, but that unexplained variance plays a much larger one. It can be surmised from today's tests that saves are not, in reality, predictable. Consider that the results are only mediocre when we have all of the data in front of us. How do you think the tests would turn out when we're trying to predict future results? To do this, we'd need to predict how many games a team will win in the coming year. Advanced systems can do fairly well at this, but we couldn't even predict save opportunities well when we had the exact number of wins to work with. It would be even more difficult trying to use projected wins. The same thing goes for save conversion percentage. Our results were only okay when we had the pitcher's precise ERA in front of us. ERA, as you're aware, is prone to severe fluctuation, often times by no fault of the pitcher. Using a pitcher's predicted ERA in place of actual ERA, I'm certain the results would be significantly worse. Put the two together, and you just have a mess. We would be trying to predict two things that were relatively unpredictable to begin with using two other predicted stats, one of which is relatively unpredictable in itself. To me, and hopefully now to you, it just doesn't seem feasible to predict saves. Draft planSo where does that leave us? Well, while we can't predict saves, knowing that we can't is a valuable piece of information. It will help us make informed decisions during our draft and prevent us from making bad decisions. What I left out of the tests on save opportunities was all the pitchers who didn't actually get any opportunities. I'm sure this isn't news to you, but the most valuable means of accumulating saves in a fantasy league is by taking players who will get opportunities. Therefore, the most important component in drafting for saves is determining opportunity. The second most important component is drafting skill. A large portion of closers lose their jobs every year. Those who have good skills—like a Joe Nathan or a J.J. Putz or a Jonathan Papelbon—tend to keep their jobs longer. You might have a guy like B.J. Ryan get injured, but I'm sure it would have been a surprise to everyone if the Blue Jays all of a sudden promoted Jason Frasor to closer while Ryan was healthy. Don't take this as my blessing to go out and draft Nathan or Putz, because I would never do that in a mixed league. I'll discuss that more in my next article, about my strategy for closers. Concluding thoughtsWhat we learned today is that saves are not predictable and should not be chased in fantasy leagues. The best bets at closer are those pitchers who have a firm hold on the job and who have skills to back it up. Be sure to come back tomorrow as I talk about the strategy I use for dealing with closers and saves. Posted by Derek Carty at 12:01am Tuesday, February 19, 2008The THT Season Preview 2008 is shippingOur printer got done with the Season Preview 2008 two days earlier than we expected, and the publisher tells us that it is now shipping. So if you ordered the book, I suggest you park yourself outside your window waiting for the mailman until he comes with your copy, and if you have yet to, well, what are you waiting for? Do it now! If you're still not sure, you can read more about the book here. It's an indispensable resource for the serious fantasy player, and I'll think you'll really enjoy the book. Posted by David Gassko at 12:52pm Wednesday, February 20, 2008Stats referenceStarting this week, many of my posts will begin running on FOX Sports. With this happening, I thought it might be a good idea to write a little about some of the statistics I use for some of the FOX readers who might not be familiar with them yet. This list will be updated each time I begin using a new stat to talk about players. HittersContact rate - The percentage of at-bats in which the hitter puts the ball in play, or how often he doesn't strike out. Importance: The more balls you can put in play, the more have a chance of falling for a hit. Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) - The percentage of balls in play that fall for hits. Importance: Hitters have some control over it, but BABIP is prone to random fluctuations, meaning a player can get either lucky or unlucky, potentially having a significant impact on batting average. Flyball rate (FB%) - The percentage of balls in play that are outfield fly balls. Importance: You can't hit a home run if the ball isn't hit into the outfield, in the air. Home run per fly ball (HR/FB) - The percentage of fly balls that are home runs, which hitters have a good amount of control over. Importance: Combined with FB%, a pretty good measure of a hitter's power independent of the number of at-bats accumulated. Stolen base opportunity percentage (SBO%) - How often the hitter reaches first base. Importance: The majority of steals occur when hitters steal second, but you can't steal second unless you reach first safely. Stolen base attempt percentage (SBA%) - How often the hitter attempts to steal given his number of times reaching first safely. Importance: You can't steal a base unless you leave first, can you? The more often you try, the more often you're likely to succeed. PitchersBatting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) - The percentage of balls in play that fall for hits. Importance: Pitchers have very little control over BABIP, making them prone to even more random fluctuations than hitters. These fluctuations can have a significant affect on the number of hits the pitcher gives up, impacting WHIP and ERA. Strikeout rate (K/9) - The percentage of strikeouts a pitcher accumulates per nine innings pitched. Importance: When a strikeout occurs, the ball is not put in play, which eliminates the possibility of a pitcher getting unlucky (see: BABIP). A strikeout is a guaranteed out that a pitcher has ultimate control over. Walk rate (BB/9) - The percentage of walks a pitcher accumulates per nine innings pitched. Importance: Like strikeouts, a pitcher has ultimate control over walks. Unlike strikeouts, walks are bad. The more batters walked, the easier it becomes for the other team to score. Run Impact from strikeouts and walks (K-BB RI) - The relative number of runs a pitcher's strikeouts and walks either save or cause. Importance: Serves the same purpose of strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB), to measure the impact of two most important isolated pitching statistics on the number of runs a pitcher allows, but this stat more accurately measures the that impact. Groundball percentage (GB%) - The percentage of ground balls a pitcher induces per ball in play, which a pitcher has a lot of control over. Importance: If the ball is hit on the ground, it can't become a home run. Not as good as a strikeout, but far preferable to a fly ball that could quickly put runs on the board. Line drive percentage (LD%) - The percentage of line drives a pitcher induces per ball in play, which a pitcher doesn't have much control over. Importance: Line drives become hits at the highest rate of any type of ball in play. Because pitchers can't really control how many they give up, those who give up too many or too few are prone to either getting lucky or unlucky with their hits allowed (and BABIP). Home runs per fly ball (HR/FB) - The percentage of fly balls that are home runs, which pitchers don't have much control over. Importance: Home runs are automatic earned runs, so pitchers who get lucky or unlucky in this category can have drastically higher or lower ERAs. Left on base percentage (LOB%) - The percentage of batters who reach base that the pitcher allows to ultimately score, a stat that pitchers have limited control over. Importance: Pitchers have more control over this stat than BABIP or HR/FB, but those who have extreme rates will either have lower or higher ERAs than they deserve. Luck Independent ERA (LIPS ERA) - The ERA we should expect a pitcher to have based on his peripheral stats (strikeouts, walks, ground balls, etc.) and a normal distribution of luck. Importance: Mirrors ERA and gives a much more accurate depiction of the pitcher's true skill level. Defense Independent WHIP (DIPS WHIP) - The WHIP we should expect a pitcher to have based on his walk rate, a normalized line drive rate, and a normal distribution of hits for each batted ball type. Importance: Mirrors WHIP and gives a much more accurate depiction of the pitcher's true skill level in preventing base runners. Posted by Derek Carty at 12:20am Fantasy Mailbag: Bay, Myers and the Nats outfieldThe Hardball Times guys have kindly agreed to let me explore my weekly fantasy mailbag questions in this space. Feel free to submit mailbag questions here. Please note that I cannot answer questions specific to your fantasy team—these mailbags will focus on questions of interest to many fantasy leaguers. Anyway, let's crack open this week's mailbag. What do you think of Jason Bay this year? A few years back he was a fantasy stud and then last year he was a bust. What type of player will he be this year? - Tom I have Bay posting a fantasy line of .271, 26 home runs, 85 runs, 85 RBIs and eight steals in 519 at-bats, which makes him my 29th-ranked outfielder. I have him between Jeff Francoeur and Vernon Wells in the rankings. As you might expect, the projection is safely nestled between the extremes of his '06 and '07 seasons. For the first time, Bay is entering spring without any kind of injury or offseason surgery. He says his knee is 100 percent, and I see some upside beyond my projection. Bay is currently being drafted 25th among outfielders, so there's no steep discount for his lousy '07. PNC Park is hell on right-handed home runs, so a trade would only help. How do you organize the massive amount of information you collect when doing an offline or an online draft? Binders? Special programs? Excel? I need to jack up my planning process to get ahead on draft day. - Dan I am going to give RotoLab a whirl this year, for the first time. Not sure if RotoLab lets me import my own complete set of projections though. I'll give my opinion of this software in this space once I test it. Typically in the past I have brought the following things to my draft: a couple of pencils, a calculator, a magazine or Ron Shandler book as a backup, and my own custom cheat sheets. The cheat sheets are the key. They are by position and are ranked by my own dollar values. I'll cross off players who are keepers on other rosters, as well as players I know I'll never consider drafting. Then with a quick glance I can see that there are only four available shortstops to my liking and I need to get one of them (and maybe overpay). For auction leagues, I also bring a list of players who I feel will be well overpriced. I make sure to spend my first few rounds calling out their names to spend other teams' money. What is your take on Brett Myers? Should we be concerned about injury? As a power pitcher on a very good club, he seems to be a safe bet, but the major changes in workload and expectations last year are raising some major red flags for me. Is Brett Myers capable of throwing 200 innings this year? - Kevin I believe he is capable of 200 innings, and as such he's a bargain. With just 180 innings he's my 27th-ranked starter, after A.J. Burnett but before Felix Hernandez. He's being drafted 24th among starters, so he's appropriately valued in the marketplace. Like Bay, he's shown he can do more. His shoulder strain from '07 seems fully healed, but of course it remains a concern in fantasy. You'll find Myers in the 10th round, alongside other injury risks like Ben Sheets and Francisco Liriano. It's also the time of the draft that you'll find unproven youngsters like Jamie Shields, Tim Lincecum, and Rich Hill. Of all of these I'd opt for Lincecum. If you only had one stat with which you had to research for an upcoming desert island 12 team 5x5 MLB fantasy draft ... okay, so the example loses a little steam. What is you favorite single stat to predict future outcomes? - James For pitchers I'd probably look at component ERA (a Bill James creation you can find in ESPN's stat pages). For hitters I'd probably opt for OPS, even though it's not a 5x5 category. High OPS players are usually fantasy studs. How will the lineup situation shake out for the Nationals? They've got too many players in Dmitri Young, Nick Johnson, Wily Mo Pena, Austin Kearns, and Lastings Milledge. - Jason I talked to the Washington Post's Barry Svrluga recently about this situation. He sees 150 games for Kearns in right field, with Milledge and Pena as the other starters. Dukes seems the odd man out here, as he should be. Pena, Kearns, and Milledge all make great fantasy sleepers. Milledge has a shot at a 20/20 season, but he's not being drafted in many 12-team mixed leagues. Svrluga also believes Johnson will be traded if healthy. Young is ahead of him on the depth chart, according to Nats GM Jim Bowden. I would probably stay away from both in a mixed league, and lean toward Young in NL-only. Hi, Tim. You have mentioned in the past that fantasy baseball managers undervalue pitching. Can you explain why you think this is, and how this can be exploited via draft-day strategy? When I have tried to be more aggressive about drafting pitchers early, I have ended up with fairly weak offensive teams that struggled to stay in contention. - Michael It's a complicated situation, but I think fantasy leaguers ultimately value pitching correctly even if they don't know exactly why. If you crank out your dollar values based on how much each of the ten categories will move you in the standings, you see Johan Santana ranked first overall and many pitchers in the first three rounds. Drafts never play out that way though. I don't see an inefficiency there; the increased volatility of pitchers is why. The other reason I don't draft a bunch of pitching early is that good pitchers emerging on the waiver wire is much more common than good hitters. Sure, you might find a Carlos Pena here or there. But that's outnumbered by pitchers who provide a ton of profit. Examples from '07 include Ted Lilly, Fausto Carmona, Shields, and Lincecum. The old adages of spending most of your money on hitting or waiting until at least the fifth round to take a pitcher are smart. I guess that's why they're adages. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||