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 Monday, March 03, 2008Using emotion to gain informationIt's now March, and fantasy drafts are fast approaching, if you haven't had yours already. Leading up to draft day, it can be very important to gain information about your opponents. In today's game, this can be a terribly difficult task. Fantasy owners are getting smarter and realizing that this isn't a game of friendship, but rather a game necessitating concealment of one's true feelings and in some instances, deception. Game of counter-intelligenceA great story I read recently was about Ron Shandler. My friend Patrick DiCaprio at Fantasy Baseball Generals wrote about Shandler taking Miguel Cabrera as the No. 1 pick in an expert mock draft. Shortly after writing about this, Shandler e-mailed Patrick with the full story. Here's a clip: So when I lucked into the No. 1 pick, I surveyed the other owners if anyone thought that I shouldn't pick A-Rod. Nearly everyone concurred that A-Rod had to be No. 1. But for the reasons you ably noted, he was not my No. 1. So I then confided in the owners who had the No. 2-No. 5 picks that I was going to pick Wright, and explained why. That effectively sent them off scurrying to plot their first picks. I don't think too many of you will be playing against the likes of Shandler, but you need to consider the possibility that your opponent could be playing games with you. You need to do the best you can to have the awareness to detect such trickery. Even if a player isn't outright trying to trick you, you'll be hard pressed to find a veteran owner willing to give his hand away. Therefore, we need to put forth a little effort to try and extract it from him. The power of emotionOne such way is through emotion. If we think about the various kinds of emotions, we can isolate a subset that are more easily aroused than others. Fortunately for us, these emotions are perfectly suited to our aims. If you think about it, positive emotions like love and happiness are difficult to produce in someone else unless you have a natural charm and way with people. More negative emotions, though, like anger or intensity, are much easier to get out of another person. Walk outside and call the first person you see the first bad word you think of, and see what happens. If you aren't immediately punched in the face, you'll likely hear some not-so-nice words in retaliation. When we are angry or intense, we often say things we don't mean to say and give away information we don't mean to give away. Have you ever been in a heated argument with someone and said something hurtful about the person that, although truthful, you would never say in a calmer situation? I think most of us have. In fact, I've read studies showing that anger temporarily lowers one's IQ. So if doing something as simple as affecting a change in someone's emotional state can get that person to make mistakes, doesn't that seem like something worth taking advantage of? I'd like to share a couple of stories illustrating this concept. David and King SaulThis story deals with David, most commonly known for his underdog victory over the famous Philistine warrior Goliath. David suspected that his step-father, King Saul of Israel, secretly wanted him dead. When David told Jonathan, Saul's son, of his suspicions, Jonathan didn't believe him. David suggested a test: Jonathan would return alone to Saul that evening, who was expecting David for a feast, relaying a passable but slightly curt excuse for David's absence. Upon hearing this, Saul became enraged, exclaiming "Send at once and fetch him; he deserves to die." Not exactly a reasonable response to a viable excuse. Robert Greene, author of The 33 Strategies of War, discusses the intelligence of David's strategy: David's test succeeded because it was ambiguous. His excuse for missing the feast could be read in more than one way: if Saul meant well toward David, he would have seen his son-in-law's absence as selfish at worst, but because he secretly hated David, he saw it as effrontery, and it pushed him over the edge. Musashi and KojiroMiyamoto Musashi is considered one of the greatest swordsmen to ever live. Perhaps his most famous battle was with another great samurai, Sasaki Kojiro (who I've also heard referred to as Sasaki Ganryu). The battle was to be held on an island where scores of spectators came to watch. Sasaki arrives on time, but Musashi employs a different tactic. He makes Sasaki wait ... and wait ... and wait. Finally, a boat is spotted approaching the island. Musashi is in it, laying down, whittling a piece of wood. As he gets out of his boat, he ties a dirty towel to his forehead as a headband. Sasaki is furious. He exclaims, "Are you so frightened of me that you have broken your promise to be here by eight?" Musashi gives no response. Sasaki takes out his sword, dropping the sheath to the sand. Musashi breaks his silence by saying, "Sasaki, you have just sealed your doom." Sasaki responds by saying, "Me? Defeated? Impossible!" Musashi comes back with a perplexing, seemingly nonsensical response that infuriates Sasaki further: "What victor on earth would abandon his sheath to the sea?" With that, Musashi charged Sasaki with his wooden sword. Sasaki, still fuming, swings his sword at Musashi's head, clipping only his towel headband—the first time he ever missed his opponent. Musashi knocks him to the ground and kills him. An esteemed warrior in a country known for its customs and traditions, Sasaki was perfectly baited by Musashi. Musashi shows up late, with a nonchalant attitude, wearing a dirty towel as a headband and a freshly whittled piece of wood as a sword, making perplexing remarks, and Sasaki can't help but get angry with him. This anger caused Sasaki to make a mistake, and it cost him the battle. Fantasy baseball applicationLet's look at the tactics used in these stories in fantasy baseball terms. I'll simplify my example to illustrate my point, but this tactic is applicable under a variety of circumstances. Say we have the third pick in the draft, and we want to know who will be available to us. Suppose we know for certain that A-Rod will go first, and we simply need to know who will go second. Because we've done our homework and know our opponent well (a topic we will discuss quite in-depth at a later date), we know that he is targeting a shortstop here, either Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes. So we begin to prod. We knows he's a fairly intelligent owner and has likely done his homework when deciding which he will take and likely feels some attachment to his choice. We strike up a conversation with him, saying how conflicted we are between Hanley and Reyes at No. 3. Assuming he doesn't indicate that one of these players won't be there for us, we can start to play at his emotions a little bit. We might begin by pointing out all the reasons we're leaning against taking Reyes, being as passionate as possible without making it blatantly obvious that we're goading him. We talk about how Reyes collapsed down the stretch, how he hit .251 in the second-half and .205 in September. We talk about how he had a .259 batting average with runners in scoring position and how much his RBI totals plummeted last year. We talk about how "unclutch" he was and how he didn't show any leadership. We talk about how Reyes has said this spring that he will be more serious this season and how this will cause him to lose his edge and his passion and how his production will drop. We talk about how "speed and stolen bases are overrated," and how without his steals, Reyes looks kind of pathetic with a .280 batting average, 12 home runs, and 55 RBIs, making him just a two-category player. We talk about how Reyes's RC/27 was just 5.68 last year and how he is overrated as a baseball player. Don't be afraid to throw out cliches, but if you're opponent knows that you're strictly into numbers, be very careful which ones you choose. Deviation from your own norm could raise a red flag to him. If he doesn't call you out on it, you might later find out that he gained his composure at this point and fed you false information. Because of this, if your opponent knows a little about you and the types of players you like, it's best to use those "anti-arguments" that mesh with your own philosophies so as to avoid detection. If you're like me, this means talking about things that are statistical in nature that portray the player in a negative light. If we're lucky enough that our opponent isn't really into stats, talking about Reyes's RC/27 and things of that nature might be just the prodding our opponent needs to tip his hand. If he is into stats, talking about things like RC/27 could still do the trick, as he might point out that skills in "real baseball" don't necessarily translate into fantasy baseball production. Greene says that "any strong emotion and you will know that there's something boiling under the surface." Maybe this owner will respond by talking about how all it will take for Reyes's RBIs to come back is a readjustment in his batting average with runners in scoring position, which is entirely possible given his .336 mark in 2006. Maybe he'll talk about how Reyes' BABIP was just .258 in the second-half and that Reyes was unlucky. Maybe he'll talk about Reyes's "power potential." Maybe he'll talk about how the Mets collapse was a team effort and not completely Reyes' fault. Maybe he'll talk about how leadership has nothing to do with fantasy production. Maybe he'll talk about how Reyes' serious approach will help him focus more, or than his youthful enthusiasm and love for the game will outweigh any additional professional he adds to his approach. The more emotion he puts into his rebuttal, the better. To get emotion from him, we have two options. We can either throw throw all of our "anti-Reyes" arguments at him at once, hoping to overwhelm him and force a heated response. Alternately, we can slowly but surely raise his emotion level. We start out with a single point, wait for his counter, and then start to gradually elevate our own tone. If he truly likes Reyes, there's a good chance he'll follow suit. By the end of the conversation, we'll hopefully both be talking in raised tones with the other owner noticeable ticked off a bit. Words of warningBe careful using this tactic. When David did, there was no risk involved since his message was indirect. For Musashi, it didn't matter if he angered Sasaki; it was a fight to the death, and one way or another he would not have to deal with him again. For the fantasy owner, it is quite different. We will have to deal with our opponents for an entire season, possibly longer. We want to do this as subtly as possible. We want our opponent to get very intense, not so much angry. We are not looking to make an enemy, just gain information. We want to seem impassioned, not hostile. We want our opponent to think we are looking for an intellectual debate, not a mudslinging contest. If we get our opponent angry with us, there is not only the possibility of him uncovering out strategy, but the possibility of hostility when it comes to in-season trade talks. Furthermore, if you anger too many owners, you could find yourself thrown out of the league altogether. Using this method takes a lot of tact and a little time to perfect. But once you find you are able to evoke particular emotions in people, this can be a very powerful tool. Additional fantasy baseball applicationSome of you might have already thought of this, but if not, consider other ways to use these tactics. If you're participating in a live draft—or better yet, a live auction — flustering your opponents can force them to make mistakes. Use this tactic to your advantage, and have the awareness to keep your own emotions in check. Concluding thoughtsI realize that this tactic is a little unorthodox and that tactics like this aren't commonly discussed by fantasy analysts. In today's game, though, where quality projection systems are easy to come by and the level of competition—and the level of parity—is increasing, the owners who succeed in the long-term are going to be those who aren't afraid to try something new, to think outside the box. The successful owner is going to be the one who seeks to use any advantage possible. This means looking at things that aren't related to baseball and applying them to the game. Adding facets of things like strategy, psychology, economics, and intelligence gathering to your arsenal can help eliminate some of the vagaries of chance and help you to become a successful fantasy baseball owner. Posted by Derek Carty at 9:24pm Wednesday, March 05, 2008Fantasy Mailbag: Catcher strategy, trade vetoes, James ShieldsTim Dierkes writes a daily fantasy baseball blog called RotoAuthority. If you enjoy this column, check it out. Time to bust out the ol' mailbag once again. I love answering random reader questions. Feel free to send one here, but please don't make it specific to your fantasy team. Let's dive in. What do you think of not drafting a catcher until one of the latest rounds in a two-catcher 12-man league? Would this be a wise strategy if I do not draft one of the top four catchers?—Michael I recently did a league where I drafted both Russell Martin and Joe Mauer, because I thought they had slipped further than they should have. While this strategy may work out, I mostly regret it. At most, I'd recommend shooting for one of the top three—Martin, Mauer, McCann—and then filling the other slot with a fairly cheap guy. Note that "fairly cheap" does not imply "Johnny Estrada." Geovany Soto in the 14th round, J.R. Towles in the 17th, Carlos Ruiz in the 25th and Ryan Doumit in the 26th are what I had in mind. And the idea of Dioner Navarro as an undrafted mixed league sleeper is definitely starting to grow on me, looking at his last two months. We have a keeper league where two players of relatively equal values were swapped. Fair trade, right? Well, what if that trade was right before the trade deadline and one owner had no intention of keeping the player received? He called it an "owner courtesy trade" and as it was otherwise a fair trade he thought it reasonable to do as he wasn't keeping his player anyways. Some owners in our league are fine with it while others are calling foul—with the reasoning being that something was given for "nothing." We resolved the issue already, but I'm curious to hear what would you would say: fair or foul?—Eldestson Foul. I am very much opposed to vetoing trades because they seem unbalanced. The one reason I will object to a trade is if I see it as one owner doing another a favor. As soon as it happens (often between family members) the integrity of the league is shot. In this case, you know it was a favor because he basically said so. Owners in good competitive leagues do not aid other teams with no benefit to themselves. Usually if you do a $50-100 buy-in you'll eliminate this issue. How legit was James Shields of Tampa Bay last year? Was last a year a career year or the start of an amazing run? How much injury risk do you see?—Dan B. I consider Shields' 2007 quite legit, though I don't think he'll replicate it. I'm calling for a 4.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 179 strikeouts in 218 innings, a $17 value. Shields could be Aaron Harang and then some in the NL, but remember he's in the AL East. As a ninth rounder Shields is being drafted about where he should be. But Tim Lincecum is going later and I'd prefer him. As for injury risk, Shields' 29-inning increase last year doesn't worry me; 14.9 pitchers per inning is definitely on the efficient side (same as C.C. Sabathia in '07). A friend of mine told me last week that he could win a roto league drafting all pitching first, so we made a wager of it. The deal is, in an ESPN public roto league, he drafted pitching until all the roster spots were full, and I drafted hitting until all I had a full complement. After that we're free to do whatever except that we're not allowed to trade or drop our initial set of pitchers and hitters, respectively. The question is: Which of the two following teams do you prefer, and do you consider either of these all-or-nothing draft strategies to be reasonable? My draft is even more avant-garde, as I over-drafted an army of b-list closers to fill out my pitching.—Fletcher In a good competitive league (ie, the exact opposite of an ESPN public league), this strategy would be highly unlikely to work. I can almost guarantee that drafting all pitchers will bomb, probably even in a crappy league. However, a savvy player could make the all hitters approach work. If you won all the hitting categories you'd have 60 points. That means you'd need maybe 30 pitching points, for which a completely average staff would be needed. You could assemble an average or slightly above average staff on the waiver wire. I have begun to lean toward the hitting-heavy approach, which is of course conventional wisdom. But if you're good at picking pitchers, you can definitely wait until the 10th round for them and assemble a reliable offense. For more fantasy content, check out THT's Fantasy Focus blog! Posted by Tim Dierkes at 2:19am Draft strategy: Taking high risk players lateThe strategy I'm about to present isn't anything earth-shattering and is probably old news to some of you, but I believe that it is something worth mentioning. So you get to the end of your draft, and you're looking at who's left in the 20th round, and you see guys like Luis Castillo, Orlando Hudson, Mike Cameron, and Lyle Overbay still hanging around. You also notice guys like Evan Longoria, Colby Rasmus, Jay Bruce, Adam Jones, and Kevin Kouzmanoff interspersed. The safe routeSome fantasy owners like to go the safe route and take someone like Cameron. His skill set has been pretty consistent, and you basically know what you're going to get with him. Check out his numbers over the past few years: YEAR LAST FIRST CR BB% BABIP HR/FB AB/HR SBO% SBA% SB% 2007 Cameron Mike 72 10 0.300 13 27 0.235 15 78 2006 Cameron Mike 74 11 0.325 13 25 0.252 21 74 2005 Cameron Mike 72 8 0.341 15 26 0.233 18 93 2004 Cameron Mike 71 10 0.263 19 16 0.210 24 79 The BABIP fluctuates, but we know that a good deal of luck is involved there, and it seems to fluctuate around .310 or so. He had more power in 2004, but that seems to have leveled off with age. The 93 percent stolen base percentage came out of nowhere, but it looks pretty anomalous given the consistency of it in the surrounding years. Everything else looks pretty consistent. Cameron will hit around .250 with 15-20 steals and 20 home runs, but it would be a huge surprise to see him hit .330 with 35 home runs and 50 steals. While you know what you're getting from Cameron, what you're getting is largely unspectacular. Boom or bustInstead of opting for Cameron, though, you could take a guy like Jay Bruce. He's younger, has shown pretty good skills so far, and has a lot of upside. Conversely, he's also a decent bet to start the year in the minors with the recent signing of Corey Patterson and the presence of Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper. Plus, he's young and doesn't have any major league experience. For some, I'm sure it is a real balancing act trying to decide between a solid, consistent contributor and a boom or bust pick. This decision, though, is a very easy one to make. Take Jay Bruce. Reasoning behind the strategyHere's the thing. If you take the Cameron type, he'll give you solid production you can bank on. But because you're taking him in one of the last rounds, the difference in value between him and a guy like Brad Wilkerson or Xavier Nady or (insert replacement level outfielder of your choice here) just isn't that large. So take Bruce. Stick him on your bench and wait for him to be recalled. If he gets regular playing time from May to September, you could end up with 12th round value. If he doesn't get recalled or stinks it up when he does, drop him. If your team gets hit with the injury bug and you need a major leaguer to put in a starting spot, drop him. You know who you're going to end up replacing him with? Brad Wilkerson, Xavier Nady, or the replacement level outfielder of your choice. It's really a no risk/high reward move. Use this strategy on...This strategy doesn't just include younger players, though. It includes any player who has a large amount of variance in his projection. Using this strategy, instead of opting for a Mike Cameron or a Jay Bruce, you could instead opt for a player like Barry Bonds. His projection has a lot of variance for the simple fact that he has yet to sign with a major league team. If he signs, he still has good skills and could far outproduce, say 20th round value. He could also fail to sign, though, and produce zero value. The same principles apply, and unlike Bruce, you'll find out much sooner whether you're going to get a return on your investment. Here are the categories of players that I feel work with this strategy:
Here are some guys who I feel fall into one or more of these categories for 2008:
I'm sure I missed plenty of guys, but I think you understand what I'm getting at. Concluding thoughtsIf you've already been using this strategy, hopefully this will act as a reinforcer. If you haven't been using it, hopefully you now realize the benefits you can reap from it. You will never win a fantasy league by simply keeping up with the pack. Oftentimes, you need to be bold. And when an opportunity for such boldness presents itself in a fashion that offers—essentially—zero downside, why the heck not? Posted by Derek Carty at 10:30pm Friday, March 07, 2008Rotoworld’s Fantasy Draft GuideRotoworld's Fantasy Draft Guide is available from the Rotoworld website. For just $14.99, you get online access to their player profiles and projections, draft strategies, depth charts, cheat sheets and much more. Plus, it's online and updated as things change. Highly recommended. Posted by Dave Studeman at 10:15am Saturday, March 08, 2008Sleeper alert: Hank BlalockAs an introduction to this post, I'd like to note that we'll be having a fantastic new contributor to THT Fantasy Focus very shortly. His name is Chris Neault, and he currently writes the Disabled List Informer blog, a wealth of information about player injuries. One post in particular I'd like to draw your attention to concerns Hank Blalock. Read it before going any further here. ... You're back? Good. Chris notes that Blalock had very good numbers in 2003 and 2004, but dropped off significantly in 2005 and 2006. Chris attributes this to a rare condition known as Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. This means Blalock had an extra rib hanging around at the top of the rib cage, underneath the collarbone. That can cause one to lose strength gradually—sometimes imperceptibly—when the surrounding nerves and arteries are compressed. Chris believes this began happening to Blalock in 2005, and because of the condition, he began to lose strength without really knowing it. By 2007, this lack of strength began to manifest itself to Blalock noticeably, leading him to have surgery to have the rib removed. I looked up some additional power numbers for Blalock, and they all seem to backup this assertion. Year GB/FB GB% OF FB% FB/HR AB/HR AB/2B 2003 0.81 32 39 16 20 17 2004 0.78 34 44 16 19 17 2005 1.18 39 33 15 26 19 2006 1.26 42 33 10 37 23 07-1H 0.95 37 39 11 29 13 07-2H 0.56 25 45 22 13 13 In 2003 and 2004, his numbers were good across the board: high flyball percentage, low groundball percentage, low GB/FB, high HR/FB, low AB/HR, low AB/2B. Then in 2005 and 2006, all these numbers plummeted: lower FB percentage, higher GB percentage, higher GB/FB, lower HR/FB, higher AB/HR, higher AB/2B. If we look at 2007 in halves, pre- and post-surgery, we see similar trends. Pre-surgery, his HR/FB stayed low and AB/HR stayed high. Out of place was his improved GB/FB (thought not to 2003-2004 levels) and AB/2B; this could be due to a small sample size (144 ABs) or it could have come with age despite the injury. He was 26, right about a hitter's peak age. In the second half, though, all of his numbers reached their 2003-2004 mark or better. GB/FB, HR/FB, AB/HR, AB/2B, everything. It was in an even smaller sample size than the first half (64 at-bats), but even if we discount the entire year as a small sample size, removing that rib could be what it takes for Blalock to regain his earlier form. Personally, I'm going to be drafting Blalock late in drafts. His current ADP, according to Mock Draft Central, is 206. That equates to Round 17 in a traditional 12-team mixed league. I think taking a 27-year-old hitter, coming off surgery that could vastly improve his power, who has shown good skills in the past at this spot is a good choice. If nothing else, he meets the requirement for the late, high-upside pick strategy I wrote about the other day. Posted by Derek Carty at 9:15am Tuesday, March 11, 2008Recap: First Pitch New YorkYesterday, I attended Baseball HQ's First Pitch seminar in Saddle Brook, N.J. It was a fun time, so I'd like to thank the speakers and the guys at Baseball HQ who put it together. I'd like to share a few interesting tidbits from the day. Hand injuries—Utley, Zimmerman and WeeksAs always, Rick Wilton was a font of injury information. Perhaps the most interesting things I learned were the details behind hand and wrist injuries. Last July, Rick wrote about Chase Utley in a post for THT. If you'll remember, this was right after Utley suffered a fractured right hand. Rick wrote that "even if he does beat the four weeks, Utley has another hurdle to overcome. Players coming off wrist and hand injuries rarely regain their normal power levels for up to a year after the injury." Yesterday, Rick outlined an exact timetable for these types of guys. He said that it generally takes eight to nine months for a hitter to regain 80 percent of his power and 10 or 12 months to regain 100 percent. This has some important fantasy implications for several players in 2008. Chase Utley Let's start with Utley. The eight-month mark was Feb. 27, and he'll be past nine months by the time the season starts. Because Utley will be just 80 percent to start the season, I'll mostly be passing on Utley in favor of more reliable hitters in the first round of my drafts. Because of this limitation, all it will take is a little bad luck for Utley to have a poor first-half. If he does, the 12-month mark is at the end of July, which makes Utley a potentially excellent trade target for the second-half. Ryan Zimmerman Another guy who figures to be impacted is Ryan Zimmerman. Back in November, Zimmerman broke a bone in his left wrist, forcing him to have surgery. As per Rick's timetable, Zimm won't regain 80 percent of his power until July or August. When you consider how high some people are on Zimmerman—an example is Baseball Prospectus' Joe Sheehan, who said that "Zimmerman will be a better player than David Wright in 2008"—and the power he stands to lose for 2008, he's a guy likely to be overvalued at your draft. I'm staying away this year. Rickie Weeks Rickie Weeks is another guy to note. Weeks had wrist surgery in the middle of August 2006 and struggled for a good portion of the 2007 season. The nine-month mark came for him in May, but by the end of the month he had to go on the disabled list with wrist tendinitis. At that point, he had just a 34 AB/HR and a 41 percent fly ball rate. When he came back, he started off slow, but after his first home run on Aug. 24 (right around the 12-month mark), Weeks went on to post an 11 AB/HR and a 46 percent fly ball rate. Granted, this was in just 121 at-bats, but consider this: In September, according to HitTracker, Weeks hit six home runs a true distance over 400 feet, including two that went over 460 true feet. That is monster power. Even considering the small sample size, Weeks is a very interesting guy to watch with a ton of upside for 2008. I'm not sure if the wrist tendinitis in May of 2007 resets his clock, but even if it does, Weeks would be reaching the 10-month mark right about now, meaning he could have all of his power back now anyway. My guess would be that the tendinitis doesn't count, since it wasn't surgery, and because Rick noted that Weeks figures to improve his power this year. Troy PercivalTroy Percival is currently the closer for the Tampa Bay Rays, but Rick doesn't think this arrangement will last. When Percival retired in 2006, it was because he partially tore his right (throwing) flexor pronator muscle mass. Rick noted that Percival never actually underwent surgery to fix this problem, and he feels that Percival could begin having trouble as early as April. Watch the news on Percival very closely. If you hear about him having trouble with his throwing elbow or arm, be aware that an injury could be coming, or that one has already arisen and the Rays are trying to downplay it. If Percival is available late in your draft, don't let me stop you from taking him. It might be smarter to take Dan Wheeler or Al Reyes, though. Wheeler is the younger of the two and has the better skills. Reyes closed last year, but he also figures to be a trade candidate. Wheeler isn't getting drafted in most leagues, but he would make a solid late round choice after all the legitimate closers are off the board. B.J. RyanB.J. Ryan is an interesting guy in that the reports this spring have all been positive, despite the fact that it's been just 10 months since his Tommy John surgery. It generally takes pitchers 18 months before they're ready to go, or starting pitchers anyway. I asked Rick about this, and he said that relievers have an altered timetable, which makes sense. He said not to put much weight into the reports that say Ryan is "ahead of schedule" and "feeling great" and whatnot; these come out every time someone is on the way back from Tommy John. He does feel, however, that Ryan will be okay to pitch at the start of the year. He thinks Jeremy Accardo will begin the year closing and that Ryan will be eased in, taking over a couple of months into the season. His suggestion was to grab both late in a draft and assure yourself all of Toronto's saves. Jays manager John Gibbons has said Accardo would be the setup man if Ryan is healthy. Just be sure to keep in mind what Jays brass (which includes Gibbons) was saying about Ryan at this point last year. A stiff back that was "not going to be a problem" turned out to be a sore elbow that would need Tommy John surgery. Who knows if they truly intend to make him the closer out of the gates? Overall, be careful, but Ryan doesn't seem to be quite as risky as I had originally suspected. Early rounds and reliabilityRon Shandler talked about the importance of getting reliable players in the early rounds of drafts. Patrick DiCaprio has talked about this as well lately on his radio show and on Fantasy Baseball Generals, and I couldn't agree more. In nearly all of my drafts this year, I try to make it a point to get players with stable skill sets in the first two rounds, at the very least. Using the probabilistic concept of value, risk is built into projections; all possibilities are accounted for and combined into one number. Over time, using these values will give you the greatest gain. If you use this concept, though, and choose players who have a wide array of possibilities, sometimes you will do very well, but other times you will bomb. In competitive leagues, it becomes nearly impossible to make up the necessary value if your first or second round pick does poorly. In important leagues, it can be a good idea to sacrifice a tiny bit of "value" for reliability. When you take guys with solid skill sets, you know what you're getting (in relative terms). The drop-off in value from a guy like Ryan Braun to Carlos Lee is quite small, but the benefits from Lee's stable skill set more than makes up the gap in a league that is competitive and important to win. In one recent expert draft, I managed to get David Wright, Carlos Lee and Mark Teixeira with my first three picks, all very consistent producers. Having a core like this lays a great foundation for a team and makes it easier to take some risks later on. Posted by Derek Carty at 10:10pm Thursday, March 13, 2008Fantasy Mailbag: Michael Young, Willy Taveras, Jay BruceTim Dierkes writes a daily fantasy baseball blog called RotoAuthority. If you enjoy this column, check it out. Let's sift through the ol' mailbag once again. Feel free to shoot questions here. What's your take on Michael Young this season? Where does he rank for shortstops in your mind? - Danny I rank Young as the seventh best shortstop, worse than Carlos Guillen but better than Troy Tulowitzki. However, all three players are within one dollar in my values so it's pretty much a toss-up. I'm predicting a .301-13-86-88-9 season for Young, which is plenty reasonable. The Big Three shortstops (Jose Reyes/Hanley Ramirez/Jimmy Rollins) clearly are in tier one. Derek Jeter kind of sits alone as a tier two guy, but the 37th pick is too early for him. Then I'd toss Rafael Furcal, Carlos Guillen, Young, and Tulo all into a third tier as they're of similar value to me. Young or Furcal in the seventh round is quite solid. Tulo and Miguel Tejada are going too high for my tastes. If you miss out on all of the above-named shortstops in a 12-team mixed league, you're in a bad place. There seem to be a lot of high upside, cheap end-gamers at middle infield this year. Which ones would you gamble on? - Phil I'm not really seeing that trend at shortstop. In my opinion if you don't get one of the nine guys mentioned above, you're getting less than $10 of value from the position. I like Kelly Johnson in the 14th round; he could be the seventh-best second baseman. Rickie Weeks is a breakout candidate for many, though in the ninth round he's not a huge bargain. I feel the same way about Howie Kendrick. Jeff Kent, Orlando Hudson, Aaron Hill, Freddy Sanchez, and Mark Ellis aren't getting much love. You might find a couple of 20 home run candidates in there. And some believe Ty Wigginton could mash 30 this year. I read that by bringing up Ryan Braun in May last year, the Brewers effectively delayed his arbitration and free agency years by one year. Do you think that the Reds might consider doing the same thing with Jay Bruce? And what are your thoughts about the practice in general? - Steve The Brewers may pull off that trick with Braun, but it's not a lock. ESPN's Keith Law told me once that mid-June is a safer time to call a guy up if you want to avoid Super Two status. With Corey Patterson and a slew of other center field candidates in-house, I can definitely see the Reds going this route with Bruce. If I were a Reds fan this would anger me greatly, as the team isn't putting its best players on the field from day one in a year that they could sneak into the playoffs. Worse yet, the Reds would posture rather than admit they're trying to save money. I was just wondering your thoughts on Willy Taveras. It seems to me that he gets no love, yet he is hitting at the top of a potent Colorado lineup and could steal 50 bases. I could see a .300, 100 run, 50 steal season out of him, which would make him a very attractive option, yet he is going in the 15th+ round in some leagues. - Will I'm seeing Willy going in the 15th round typically. I have him at .299-2-34-74-33 in 455 at-bats, making him the 28th-ranked outfielder. Taveras' problems are twofold, and they keep him from being the fringe top 10 outfielder he could be. First, Taveras dealt with quad and hamstring problems throughout '07, resulting in just 97 big league games and 372 at-bats. You never like to hear a speedster having leg problems. If he returns to his 600 at-bat days of '05, he could truly sniff the top ten outfielders. The other problem is that to draft Taveras (or Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn) is to take a deep hit in home runs and RBIs. This makes team construction more difficult. And if you already have a Jose Reyes on your roster, these three don't have the same value because you don't need steals as much. Pretty much in all of drafts so far I've been saving the last round for a catcher. So far I've been taking Kurt Suzuki as that guy but I'm also hearing good things about people like Ryan Doumit and Mike Napoli. Any thoughts? I know the mantra is don't pay for saves or catchers and I've been trying to stick to that this year. I had good feelings about Russell Martin last year that panned out, but no one's really jumping out like that at me this year. - Jeff Kurt Suzuki—ugh. In a shallow mixed league I'd want to do better than that for my second catcher. I don't buy any kind of "don't pay for catchers" mantra in a two-catcher league. They're pretty scarce and unlike closers, good ones don't necessarily crop up midseason. That said, catcher does present nice bargains if your No. 1 is a reliable guy. J.R. Towles, Geovany Soto, Carlos Ruiz, Ramon Hernandez, and Doumit all have a shot to jump into the top eight catchers. Soto is probably the worst-kept secret at this point. Towles presents the most risk. Posted by Tim Dierkes at 5:06am Saturday, March 15, 2008Introducing: Fantasy roundtableI have some exciting news today. Some of you have noticed a post over at the Fantasy Baseball Generals entitled "Prince Fielder vs. Ryan Howard-The Fantasy Roundtable." Each week, a collection of fantasy baseball bloggers and I will participate in a roundtable discussion on a given topic, with a different site hosting each week. This week, Fantasy Baseball Generals hosted, and the topic was who should be taken earlier in fantasy drafts: Howard or Fielder. Participating in the roundtable will be a collection of talented bloggers: Patrick DiCaprio—The Fantasy Baseball Generals Tim Dierkes— RotoAuthority Jason Sarney and Brett Greenfield— Greener on the Other Side Rob Reed—Baseball Geeks Eric Stashin — RotoProfessor Check out this week's roundtable here! E-mailsOn another note, I'd like to address the subject of e-mails. I love getting e-mails from you, and I thoroughly enjoy reading every one of them. The problem is that there just isn't enough time in a day to respond to them all. For those who have been sending me e-mails and haven't received responses, I am very sorry. Please continue sending me e-mails, though! If you don't get a response, you have my apologies. I do respond to as many as possible, and please know that I do enjoy reading them all. Thanks! Posted by Derek Carty at 7:00pm Young pitchers to watch: Part 1After the year pitchers like Tim Lincecum and Yovani Gallardo had in 2007, a lot of people are trying to identify the "next big thing" for 2008. In this two-part series, I'll point out some guys I think could have a fantasy impact in 2008. In Part 1, we'll look at players who threw a large enough sample at Triple-A or in the majors last year. In Part 2, we'll look at the Double-A guys. CriteriaWhen attempting to identify young impact pitchers, we must consider two criteria: talent and opportunity. If a player has talent but the major league rotation is full, his Triple-A dominance doesn't gain you any fantasy points. If a player has an opportunity but little talent, he's going to flounder and that opportunity will soon go to someone else... right after he screws up your fantasy team's ratios. Therefore, we'll examine players using these two categories. J.P. Howell—RaysTalent Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2005 22 CAL A+ 8 8 46.3 9.3 4.7 68 0.274 2005 22 TEX AA 3 3 18 11.5 2.5 63 0.256 2005 22 PCL AAA 7 7 38 6.9 4.5 56 0.355 2005 22 MLB MLB 15 15 72.2 6.7 4.8 55 0.298 2006 23 PCL AAA 8 8 41 8.6 3.3 58 0.383 2006 23 IL AAA 10 10 55 8.0 2.5 48 0.333 2006 23 MLB MLB 8 8 42.1 7.0 3.0 45 0.357 2007 24 IL AAA 21 21 123.3 10.6 2.5 53 0.294 2007 24 MLB MLB 10 10 51 8.7 3.7 46 0.391 2005 scout grade from John Sickels: B+ 2006 note from John Sickels: Was rushed very quickly, too quickly in my view... His walk rate was too high in the majors for a guy who doesn't throw hard. Howell has been all over the place in the past few years, including three stints in the majors. His peripherals improved each time, and his excellent Triple-A numbers in 2007 bode well for his 2008 production should he win a spot in Tampa Bay's rotation. He's still just 24 and shown the ability to strike batters out and limit walks, in addition to putting up ground ball rates ranging from good to great. Opportunity Likely MLB Rotation: 1. Scott Kazmir 2. James Shields 3. Matt Garza 4. Battle, including Howell 5. Battle, including Howell He's battling for two spots with Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel, Edwin Jackson and young longshots Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and Jacob McGee. Sonnanstine and Jackson are probably the favorites, but Jackson's peripherals haven't been very good and Howell will likely get a shot at some point. When he does, he could be a very nice waiver wire pickup. Jeff Niemann—RaysTalent Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2006 23 SL AA 14 14 77.3 9.8 3.4 43 0.267 2007 24 IL AAA 25 25 127 8.7 3.3 41 0.343 2005 scout grade from John Sickels: B+ 2006 scout grade from John Sickels: B 2007 scout grade from John Sickels: B+ (can he stay healthy?) 2008 scout grade from John Sickels: B Niemann is a talented pitcher, but he's struggled with health since being drafted fourth overall in 2004. He pitched just 30 innings in 2005, underwent shoulder surgery after the season, and then his 2006 was cut short. In 2007, he finally put in a full season. His peripherals don't jump out at you, but they are pretty good. It can't hurt how scouts rave about his stuff (look at Sickels' grades; B and B+ despite injury woes). All said, Niemann figures to be a quality major league pitcher one day, if he can stay healthy. Opportunity Likely MLB Rotation: 1. Scott Kazmir 2. James Shields 3. Matt Garza 4. Battle, with Niemann as a longshot 5. Battle, with Niemann as a longshot Niemann probably won't make the Rays out of spring training. There likely won't be room for him during the year unless someone gets injured, and the Rays have other young pitchers to consider if someone does get injured. Of those other young pitchers, though, Niemann has been around the longest and could be first in line. While Niemann has talent, the opportunity isn't guaranteed. Adam Miller — IndiansTalent Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2004 19 SAL A 19 19 43.3 9.6 2.5 -- -- 2004 19 CAR A+ 8 8 91 10.5 2.8 -- -- 2005 20 CAR A+ 12 12 59.7 6.8 2.6 -- -- 2006 21 EL AA 26 24 154 9.2 2.5 55 0.296 2007 22 IL AAA 19 11 62.7 9.8 3.0 53 0.349 2005 scout grade from John Sickels: A 2006 scout grade from John Sickels: B- 2007 scout grade from John Sickels: B (would be A- or B+ if healthy, but I don't trust his elbow) Miller always has had outstanding numbers, but has been hounded by injuries. The 2005 line looks out of place with that 6.8 K/9, but we need to remember that he had elbow problems. These resurfaced in 2007, in addition to a finger injury, but he still pitched well. If Miller can ever stay healthy, he's has the skills to be a very good major league pitcher. He strikes out a lot of batters, doesn't walk many, and gets lot of ground balls. Major league pitchers who do all three include such guys as Francisco Liriano, Felix Hernandez, and everybody's favorite sleeper this year, Dustin McGowan. Opportunity Likely MLB Rotation: 1. C.C. Sabathia 2. Fausto Carmona 3. Paul Byrd 4. Jake Westbrook 5. Battle, not including Miller Miller will have to prove he's healthy and pitch effectively in Triple-A to work his way back into the Indians' plans, but given his former top prospect status and immense talent, it probably won't take too much to convince them. They have one open spot now, but the guys vying for it aren't ultra-talented. Aaron Laffey is decent, but Cliff Lee and Jeremy Sowers aren't very good. Byrd is getting older and isn't great himself, so there's a possibility Miller could get some action in 2008. Dallas Braden—AthleticsTalent Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2005 21 CAL A+ 7 7 44 13.1 2.3 40 0.314 2005 21 TEX AA 16 16 96.7 6.6 3.0 45 0.337 2006 22 RK, A+, AA 10 10 37.3 13.3 1.9 35 0.358 2007 23 PCL AAA 11 11 69.7 10.5 2.5 41 0.282 2007 23 MLB MLB 20 14 72.1 6.8 3.2 37 0.355 2005 scout grade from John Sickels: none 2006 scout grade from John Sickels: none 2007 scout grade from John Sickels: none Braden was injured in 2006 and bounced all over the place, but he was exceptional in Triple-A in 2007. In the majors... well, it was a different story. His minor league numbers look as though he could be a quality pitcher, but some scouts don't think he'll make it as a starter at the major league level. Opportunity Likely MLB Rotation: 1. Joe Blanton 2. Rich Harden 3. Chad Gaudin 4. Justin Duchscherer* 5. Lenny DiNardo* *Not set in stone Oakland's rotation has plenty of question marks, and there's a good chance Braden will see time in the majors this season. Blanton could get traded, Harden usually gets injured, Duchscherer could fizzle as a starter, and Lenny DiNardo is no superstar. Braden is a very interesting guy to watch. Edinson Volquez—RedsTalent Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2005 21 CAL A+ 11 11 66.7 10.4 1.6 48 0.331 2005 21 TEX AA 10 10 58.7 7.5 2.6 47 0.306 2006 22 PCL AAA 21 21 120.7 9.7 5.4 45 0.278 2007 23 CAL A+ 7 7 35 9.8 5.1 40 0.264 2007 23 TEX AA 11 11 51.3 9.8 3.0 47 0.240 2007 23 PCL AAA 8 8 50 11.9 3.8 44 0.238 2005 scout grade from John Sickels: none 2006 scout grade from John Sickels: B+ (excellent raw talent... some question marks) 2007 scout grade from John Sickels: B (Wild guess on the grade. I don't trust the Rangers to develop him properly) 2008 note from John Sickels: Rebuilt his mechanics... Great stuff, all boils down to command, just like before. Traded to the Reds from Texas this offseason, Volquez has plenty of talent. His biggest asset is his strikeout rate, which was incredible at 11.9 in Triple-A in 2007. His control has been shaky at points, but it was very good in 2005. If he can fine-tune that just a bit, Volquez could be an excellent major league pitcher. Opportunity Likely MLB Rotation: 1. Aaron Harang 2. Bronson Arroyo 3. Battle, including Volquez 4. Battle, including Volquez 5. Battle, including Volquez The Reds have several quality options for three spots, including Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Matt Belisle, as well as Josh Fogg and Jeremy Affeldt. Volquez's peripherals have been great this spring, but his ERA is 5.63. With Dusty Baker as his manager, it's looking like Volquez might start the year in the minors. He figures to get recalled at some point this year, though, and he has the skills to be a very good major league pitcher. Kei Igawa—YankeesTalent Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2005 25 CEN JAP 27 25 172.3 7.6 3.1 -- 0.345 2006 26 CEN JAP 29 21 209 8.4 2.1 -- 0.292 2007 27 MLB MLB 14 12 67.2 7.1 4.9 30 0.307 2007 27 IL AAA 11 11 65.7 9.7 2.1 35 0.320 Kei Igawa was pretty bad for the Yankees to start the year, but his great Triple-A numbers after his demotion really caught my eye. He'll be just 28 this year, and he had pretty good numbers in Japan, so don't count Igawa out just yet. Opportunity Likely MLB Rotation: 1. Chien-Ming Wang 2. Andy Pettitte 3. Philip Hughes 4. Mike Mussina 5. Ian Kennedy Igawa will start the year in Triple-A, but if he pitches as well as he did there in 2007, he'll probably see some time in the majors this year. Mike Mussina's best days are behind him, and the Yankees will limit the innings of Hughes, Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. Plus, Kennedy is no sure thing, and Hughes has had injury troubles in the past. Ian Kennedy—YankeesTalent Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2007 22 FSL A+ 11 11 54.7 10.5 3.5 35 0.280 2007 22 EL AA 9 9 48 10.7 3.2 41 0.234 2007 22 IL AAA 6 6 33 9.3 3.0 41 0.267 2007 22 MLB MLB 3 3 19 7.1 4.3 26 0.237 2007 scout grade from John Sickels: B- (potential B/B+ if he can regain '05 form) 2008 scout grade from John Sickels: B+ Kennedy's strikeout rates were good in the minors, but dropped off in the majors. Scouts call Kennedy a finesse guy and think the Ks will fall off further once batters see him again. If that happens, his control hasn't been good enough to compensate. Kennedy has the potential to be good, but he could also fail miserably. Consider a downside of a 5.0 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. Opportunity Likely MLB Rotation: 1. Chien-Ming Wang 2. Andy Pettitte 3. Philip Hughes 4. Mike Mussina 5. Ian Kennedy With Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen, Kennedy will start the year in the rotation. He'll have to pitch well to keep the spot once Joba gets moved, but he'll get to take a stab at it. Sean Gallagher — CubsTalent Year Age League Level G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2005 19 MDW A 26 26 141 8.5 3.5 47 0.261 2006 20 FSL A+ 13 13 78.7 9.2 4.4 57 0.345 2006 20 SL AA 15 15 86.3 9.5 5.8 51 0.326 2007 21 SL AA 11 11 58.7 8.3 3.7 49 0.291 2007 21 PCL AAA 8 8 39 8.5 3.0 45 0.308 2006 scout grade from John Sickels: B 2007 scout grade from John Sickels: B (inning-eater type) 2008 scout grade from John Sickels: B Gallagher isn't the most talented pitcher on this list, but he could be a usable player in deeper leagues. His strikeout rates weren't fantastic last year and his control has been a little iffy, but he has shown the ability to get ground balls and is at least decent in every regard. His scouting grade seems to indicate the same. You could find better; you could find worse. Opportunity Likely MLB Rotation: 1. Carlos Zambrano 2. Ted Lilly 3. Rich Hill 4. Ryan Dempster 5. Battle, with Gallagher as a longshot Likely MLB Rotation if Traded to Orioles: 1. Jeremy Guthrie 2. Daniel Cabrera 3. Adam Loewen (might start on DL) 4. Battle 5. Battle If Gallagher stays in Chicago, he's got several pitchers ahead of him, including Jon Lieber, Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall and possibly Kevin Hart. He could get a shot at some point in 2008, but there is no guarantee of that. If he is traded to Baltimore, he'll be in a tougher league, but his chances of playing greatly increase. The O's have several players battling for spots, some more talented than others, but Gallagher is skilled enough to get a shot over some of them. A trade is looking more likely in recent days given the report that the Cubs may have included Jose Ceda in their offer for Brian Roberts. Concluding thoughtsThat does it for our Triple-A pitchers. Next time, we'll look at some Double-A pitchers, including some more exciting guys like Johnny Cueto and Gio Gonzalez. Posted by Derek Carty at 7:18pm Thursday, March 20, 2008Head-to-Head: Unorthodox strategiesI haven't talked at all about head-to-head leagues here, mostly because I'm not a fan of them. I dislike the concept of fantasy playoffs and how one poor/unlucky week can cost you an otherwise fantastic season. I've gotten a few questions about them, though, and there's been some good discourse about head-to-head leagues over at the Fantasy Baseball Generals, so I decided to put a few of my own thoughts out there. MatchupsAt FBG and on his radio show, Patrick DiCaprio has talked about the importance of analyzing potential matchups in head-to-head leagues. It isn't enough to simply throw together any mishmash of players and go into battle against a differently constructed team each week. You need to analyze your competition a bit and decide how they will construct their rosters. You should then build yours to capitalize on the weaknesses of your opponents. Common strategiesPatrick identifies two strategies that players tend to follow in "garden variety leagues." One he titles the "standard strategy" and another the "pitching strategy." The standard strategy is where the owner essentially ignores pitching for the first several rounds and takes hitters. The pitching strategy is where the owner tries to capitalize on all the people using the standard strategy and take pitchers early. Punting categoriesOne thing that I think is a huge factor in determining a head-to-head strategy is the fact that categories can be punted. In fact, thinking about it just a little bit over the past few days, it seems to me that it can actually be a good strategy to punt certain categories. In a competitive 12-team rotisserie leagues, it can be very difficult to win if you punt a category. In these leagues, being third worst in home runs still gets you three points and contributes something to your goal of winning the league. In a head-to-head league, being third worst in home runs doesn't mean nearly as much. If your team is that poor in home runs, you're not going to match up very well with other teams in that category and you won't get much benefit out of having the third worst collection of power hitters. Your resources would be better used punting those spare home runs and allocating the resources to a category you are stronger in. Then, you can pretty much assure yourself of a win in that category every week, as opposed to hoping for one win in home runs once every month or two. Suppose you're ninth in steals. Get rid of those homers and add more steals. If you can absolutely dominate a category, you can pretty much bank on winning that category every single week. There will be some fluke weeks, but those can happen to anyone using any strategy. The fact that you can punt categories and get away with it lends more support to pursuing the pitching strategy. You are going against the grain and potentially earning an advantage for that simple reason, and it is easier to punt a hitting category than a pitching category. By taking pitchers early, you will more easily dominate a larger number of categories. If you draft a good starting pitcher early, he will perform exceptionally in four categories. Not all top hitters will do that. By taking pitchers early, you will be rocking four categories right off the bat. Throw some closers in there and you've got all five. And in leagues where you decide your competition is likely to wait on pitching with few to no teams pursuing the pitching strategy, you will have an advantage over all of them if you take pitchers early and have good judgment on which to select. Then you just need to win a couple of offensive categories and you're set... which leads into a strategy that I would like to try one day. My potential strategyThis strategy is a variation of the "pitching strategy." Taking it a step further, I would tailor my offense in a very specific way. Using the pitching strategy, you're not going to have many resources to use on hitting and might be tempted to spread your offense somewhat thin in an attempt to compete in several categories. As I said earlier, though, it doesn't make much sense to be only mediocre in a category. You don't have to compete in every category in head-to-head leagues; you need to be great in just more than half. Therefore, I would try to dominate two or three offensive categories and punt the other two. For example, it would be possible to employ the pitching strategy and still be able to dominate steals and batting average and be in the top tier in runs. You will resign yourself to losing home runs and RBIs every week, but if you can take four of the pitching categories and two of the remaining three hitting categories, you'll win every week and have some room for error. In a nutshell, here are the player qualifications I would shoot for (combining 3, 4, and 5 whenever possible and placing the least emphasis on 5): 1. Good starting pitchers on good teams 2. Highly skilled closers regardless of team quality 3. Players who steal a lot of bases 4. Players who have good batting average skills 5. Players who hit early in their team's batting order Here are specific players I might go into the draft hoping for. Realize that in a real league, I would have multiple contingency plans to account for guys being taken earlier, but this should give you an idea about the types of players I would target. Round 1: Johan Santana Round 2: Carl Crawford/Ichiro Suzuki Round 3: Bobby Abreu Round 4: C.C. Sabathia Round 5: J.J. Putz Round 6: Chone Figgins Round 7: John Smoltz Round 8: Jose Valverde Round 9: Juan Pierre Round 10: James Shields Round 11: Rafael Soriano Round 12: Yovani Gallardo Round 13: Michael Bourn Round 14: Willy Taveras Round 15: Joakim Soria Round 16: Aaron Hill Round 17: Casey Kotchman Round 18: Scott Hatteberg Round 19: Paul Lo Duca Round 20: Jeff Keppinger Round 21: David Eckstein Round 22: Luis Castillo Round 23: Josh Bard This, I think, would be a team capable of winning seven or eight categories each week. It would always lose in HRs and RBIs, but it would have plenty of steals and an excellent batting average. Plus, there are a number of fast guys, leadoff men, and No. 2 hitters to score runs. As a side note, if the league didn't have a minimum at-bat limit and/or allowed certain positions to go unfilled, I'd consider trotting out a less-than-full team if my draft didn't go exactly as a planned. For example, most catchers don't steal bases or hit for a high average, contributing mostly in home runs and RBIs. Since this doesn't jibe with my strategy, I might just leave that catcher spot empty if I wasn't able to get one to contribute in batting average. This strategy and match-upsThis team, I believe, would match up very well with teams employing either the traditional strategy or teams employing the pitching strategy that don't punt categories. It would also do well against teams that have a mishmash of hitters and pitchers. Since there are relatively few stolen base threats available in a draft, it would be difficult for a team to match up with me in that area unless it conceded several categories as I did. It would become nearly impossible for others to match up when you consider how many of the top stolen base guys my team would take off the market. Few teams would match up in batting average because most owners don't try to win only a couple of offensive categories, as I would do. Instead, they take power hitters who—even if they all can hit .280-.285—can't match up with my guys, who should all hit above .285 (sans Bourn). Some teams could be competitive in runs, but I'm only shooting for them out of circumstance: Many stolen base guys hit atop the order, and their speed helps them score runs. As an added benefit, because I'm also looking for high-batting average guys, all they'll need is a decent walk rate to get on base enough to score runs for me. I don't actually need to win runs, ever, if I win four pitching categories plus batting average and steals. Being competitive in runs simply gives my team an additional "out" should I have an unlucky week. Then all I need to do is draft the right pitchers and hope not to get unlucky. I have the advantage out of the gate because I'll have several top pitchers, a luxury most teams won't have and which will make them unable to compete with me in the pitching categories. As long as I trust my judgment with pitchers, this is a strategy worth pursuing. I realize that I could finish in the bottom half of the league if several of my pitchers get unlucky. Using the probabilistic concept of value, though, this possibility is built into the pitchers' projections and in the long run this strategy will work out well. If we think about it ultra-simplistically, when I run into good luck I'll do well. When I run into neutral luck I'll do well. Only when I run into bad luck will I fail. This seems, to me, like a much better plan than to simply go with one that everyone else is going with. If I do that, I will do well only when I run into good luck. When I run into neutral luck, it will be a crap shoot since I'll be using the same strategy as others, and if enough others are using it the chances of someone else encountering good luck increases, which would trump my neutral luck. I would also, obviously, do poorly when I run into bad luck. Potential pitfalls and adjustmentsAgainst tough competition, this plan might be difficult to carry out. In competitive leagues, you'll often find people following the traditional strategy, making the pitching strategy all the more powerful. Even so, they're still top competition and will probably be tracking what you're doing, especially if you have a reputation. When they see you taking steals and batting average guys, they might try to thwart your strategy. This is something to be aware of, and if you have a feeling someone has caught on, you might need to take some of the more important guys a couple of rounds earlier to make sure you get them. Willy Taveras, for example, is a pretty important guy in this plan. After him, there aren't a lot of guys who will steal 30+ bases and hit .290+. Taking him in Round 12 (or earlier) wouldn't be the worst idea in the world. Taking Juan Pierre in Round 7 and a guy like Felix Hernandez or Daisuke Matsuzaka in Round 9 (instead of Smoltz in Round 7) might be a good idea too, if you think taking Ichiro, Abreu and Figgins has people wondering. Pierre isn't critical to the plan given the potential for playing time loss in LA, but even if he gets 30 steals this adjustment might be worth making. Judgment call. In preparation for your late-round batting average push, it might be worth it to use a couple of picks in the teens on some power hitters who are generally considered sleepers, just to throw people off. By pick 13 or 14, it would probably only look like you're going for steals (not necessarily batting average). After taking Soria, going with two straight power hitters might make some owners think that you are simply trying a strategy where you take speed early and power late. If they decide to combat this, they'll start taking power hitters... perfectly fine with you. If they don't try to combat this, it makes no difference at all. By taking two power hitters and then shifting to your batting average targets, the earliest I could see someone catching on to what you're really doing is in Round 20, so you could spend Round 21 on another power hitter. Most of the late round, batting average guys you'd be targeting would go undrafted anyway because they don't contribute much in the other categories, so after the draft it would only take a few minutes to make some add/drops and fix up your roster. By strategically selecting the power hitters, it should throw all but the most perceptive opponents off the track. Even riskier, you could fake your way through the entire end-game. Most of the guys on the list aren't getting drafted at all, and ignoring them completely would make your plan 100 pedrcent imperceptible. Take power hitters with a couple of your real targets sprinkled in (or none at all for maximum boldness), and then after the draft pick them all up. Just make sure no one else looks like they're using a similar strategy; then those hitters might not be there for you after the draft. Concluding thoughtsNext on the agenda is a post about Double-A pitchers to watch and another with some thoughts about auctions. Be sure to look for those in the coming days. |