November 20, 2009
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 Tuesday, April 01, 2008Hype machine: Evan LongoriaAs I'm sure you've heard by now, Evan Longoria has been demoted to Triple-A by the Tampa Bay Rays. A lot of bloggers seem really upset about this, and I'm sure those who drafted Longoria are. I'd like to put things into perspective, though. NumbersStats YR-AGE LEVEL AB CR BB% LD% BABIP AB/HR OF FB% HR/FB AB/2B AB/XBH 2006/20 A+ 110 83% 11% 5% 0.337 14 52% 17% 14 7 2006/20 AA 105 81% 1% 15% 0.278 18 31% 22% 21 10 2007/21 AA 381 79% 12% 23% 0.344 18 29% 24% 18 9 2007/21 AAA 104 72% 18% 16% 0.329 21 39% 17% 13 8 Major League Equivalent Line YR-AGE LEVEL AB AVG OBP SLG 2006/20 A+ 110 0.272 0.336 0.500 2006/20 AA 105 0.257 0.257 0.495 2007/21 AA 381 0.281 0.362 0.490 2007/21 AAA 104 0.257 0.383 0.486Note: MLEs taken from Baseball Prospectus Before we start, let me just make two notes. First, take the following for what it's worth. It's difficult to run an analysis when we're dealing with small sample sizes, as we are for Longoria for every level except Double-A in 2007. Second, know that I do like Evan Longoria. A lot. I own him in a couple of leagues this year. It may seem as though I bash him a lot in the coming paragraphs. I am simply trying to keep your expectations in check and get a reasonable expectation for him. That being said, on to the analysis. Longoria's numbers are definitely good, but don't anticipate a Ryan Braun-like emergence this year. There are some definite drawbacks to consider. First, if we look at his MLEs, we'll see that he struggled (batting average-wise) upon his promotion to Double-A in 2006 and then again upon his promotion to Triple-A in 2007. We're obviously looking at small sample sizes, but it does appear possible that he has a relatively long adjustment period (at least 100 at-bats). Even his equivalent slugging percentage at Double-A wasn't fantastic at .490. In 2007, 62 major league players (with at least 200 at-bats) had a .490 slugging percentage or better. Ryan Braun's was .634 (second best in baseball). Longoria's was good, but not elite. The same goes for his at-bats per extra-base hit (AB/XBH). 9.07 is good, but again, not elite. Seventy-two major league players (with at least 200 at-bats) had an AB/XBH of 9.07 or better. And that 9.07 mark for Longoria isn't an MLE as his slugging percentage is. Ryan Braun, for what it's worth, needed only 6.83 at-bats per home run (AB/HR, fourth best in baseball). The bright side is how good those Double-A home run per fly ball (HR/FB) rates are. Even in Triple-A, 17 percent is pretty good. The problem is that his AB/HR doesn't match the HR/FB rate. This is due in large part to his low outfield flyball rates. In Double-A (his largest sample size and where his HR/FB was the best), it was an awful 29 percent. In the majors, 271 players (with at least 200 at-bats) had an outfield fly ball rate of at least 29 percent. It increased in Triple-A—but again, it was in a small sample size—but it still was just 39 percent. His power potential is severely limited unless he can make some adjustments. If he does, he could be very good in this area. Looking at his contact rate (again, with the caveat that we are looking at sample sizes in all but Double-A in 2007), we see it drop with each promotion to a new level. If it goes any lower than 72 percent upon his promotion to the majors, he could be a batting average liability. Finally, we really don't know that Longoria is ready. Sure he's got a nice swing and gets a lot of hype, but 104 Triple-A at-bats really isn't sufficient. We really don't know if he's mastered Triple-A yet, much less ready to become a major league starter. Now, I'll stop playing devil's advocate and talk about why Longoria could be good. First is the great HR/FB rates. The flyball rate is low, but it's not out of the question that he'll raise it. Even if he doesn't, he still seems to have enough raw power to be relatively good. His contact rate is much more likely to be around (or over) 75 percent than 70 percent. He also has shown the ability to take a walk, a good sign of his maturity as a hitter. His BABIPs have been consistently great as well (minus his first stint in Double-A). Furthermore, his best MLE line comes in his second stint in Double-A where he had the best sample size. A line like that would likely give him value in all but shallow leagues. Plus, he'll get a little more seasoning in Triple-A (two months or so) before being promoted. This will give us a reasonable Triple-A sample to look at and get Longoria some more experience at a higher level. Overall, we shouldn't be heralding Longoria as the next superstar just yet (not for 2008, anyway), but he does figure to be quite good. AvailabilityGiven Longoria's relatively low draft position and the recent news of his reassignment, his ownership is pretty low in fantasy leagues. He's owned in 67 percent of CBS leagues and just 11 percent of FOX leagues. He's also on the "most dropped: lists for both Yahoo! and ESPN. Even given the shortcomings we've discussed, Longoria doesn't deserve to be owned in just 11 percent of leagues. If you have a bench spot available, pick him up. He's not worth picking up if you're forced to leave a starting spot empty, but he has big enough potential to warrant a bench spot. Once you own him, if you suffer a spell of injuries, you can drop him. But to leave him out on the wire for anyone else to stash away is a mistake. As I said earlier, don't count on him to be this year's Braun (there won't be one), but he could be a valuable player for four months or so. Posted by Derek Carty at 10:06pm Thursday, April 03, 2008Fantasy Mailbag: Closers, Jurrjens, Butler, JacksonTim Dierkes runs a daily fantasy baseball blog called RotoAuthority. If you enjoy this column, check it out. Time for another dip into the fantasy mailbag. Feel free to send a question for next week to (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) (but please nothing specific to your fantasy team). I have been told by every expert not to overpay for closers. Well, I held firm and now I have a great offense and starting pitching but zero closers. I do have Fukumori and Pena on my bench. Who are two other guys that might be available that could be closing by June? - Brady I'd be surprised if those experts advised you begin the season with no closers. The more common advice is to avoid taking closers early, say within the first 10 rounds. Seems like you waited until the reserve round to take relievers. Personally I like to get one decent, secure guy of the Matt Capps/Huston Street variety if possible, and then accentuate with riskier relievers. Anyway, I've been keeping an updated closer depth chart at my site. Here are some relievers to target who could be closing by June: Rafael Betancourt, Joaquin Benoit, Carlos Marmol, and David Riske. And Jon Rauch currently has the ninth for the Nationals until Chad Cordero is ready. You just have to be vigilant and just pounce when something changes. As they say, half of all saves can come off the waiver wire in a given year. I was also asked a question about whether I prefer Rauch or Riske if I had one open spot. I'll go with Rauch—Chad Cordero carries injury, ineffectiveness, and trade risk, whereas Eric Gagne has a $10 million leash in Milwaukee. Do you have any thoughts on Jair Jurrjens? He seems to be performing well, and with a spot int he Braves rotation, double digit wins should be easy. - Matt Jurrjens, 22, skipped Triple-A to make seven starts for the Tigers last year. He experienced shoulder inflammation in late August. His spring this year was nothing special: a 5.03 ERA and 1.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 19.2 innings. I have him posting a 4.61 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. There is more to pitching than just numbers, though, and Baseball America gives a positive review of Jurrjens' arsenal. A low 4.00s ERA seems within reach, but 10 wins might be hard to achieve because of durability issues. You might as well pick him up—Jurrjens at least offers upside, which is not the case with many waiver wire pitchers. I'm not usually one to be too impressed with a mediocre fantasy pitcher like Jake Westbrook, especially one who is already over 30. But Buster Olney recently wrote, "Some Braves raved about the Indians' Jake Westbrook, who has become the rare bread-and-butter sinker baller who ascends to something much greater than that, by implementing an improved change-up. For years, Westbrook has been a pitcher who has pitched to contact and gotten a lot of ground balls, and this spring, he is missing bats. Skeptical, I looked Westbrook's spring stats up and discovered this: 18 innings, seven hits, five walks, 20 strikeouts and zero earned runs. Intriguing, no? I'm not currently in a position to drop anyone for Westbrook now, but how seriously should I consider picking him up if the need arises and he continues on a hot streak into April? I would appreciate a second opinion on Westbrook. - John C. I am equally intrigued. I don't have much to add here as John C. did most of the research. Westbrook's upside may be as a $5 mixed league pitcher though; he'll need to win 15 games and keep his WHIP down. He might be one to play the matchups with. Do you agree with me that there's not much difference in value between Conor Jackson and Billy Butler this year? - Michael That is fair to say, but there are differences. Butler has more upside - he's more likely to jack 30 home runs this year. Jackson gives you first base eligibility, which is nice. Butler has more job security—the D-backs could have a minor logjam if Chad Tracy comes back healthy. But they are both high average, 20 home run types batting in RBI spots. Posted by Tim Dierkes at 12:09am Friday, April 04, 2008Keep Watch Over K-Rod’s Ankle InjuryIt is reported today that Francisco Rodriguez has been struggling with an ankle injury since late 2007, and it is believed to be causing him pain that is leading to him altering his mechanics while on the mound. This ankle injury was never really talked about last season, so he must have kept it a secret. Looking at his 2007 splits on a month-by-month basis, it appears that the injury could have occurred in July or August. July: 9.1 IP, 8 H, 5 BB, 10 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, .235 BAA August: 13.0 IP, 10 H, 8 BB, 14 K, 3.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, .200 BAA September: 10.2 IP, 7 H, 7 BB, 17 K, 2.53 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .184 BAA While these numbers don't look so bad, especially the batting average allowed and strikeout totals, you have to understand how ridiculously good his career numbers have been. For reference, here are his career numbers: July: 61.2 IP, 75 K, 2.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .196 BAA August: 63.2 IP, 76 K, 2.26 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .181 BAA September: 74.2 IP, 116 K, 1.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .167 BAA Wow. The discrepancy is easy to see now, is it not? Clearly, something was affecting the pitching performance of K-Rod. According to Lyle Spencer of MLB.com: Francisco Rodriguez (ankle) said he has been using a more compact delivery to soften the landing of his left ankle that has been giving him problems. "Before, I used to be more open, swinging my leg around. I'm trying to take a little pressure off my left ankle. It's been really painful after every outing. That's because my delivery was so violent. The trainers [Ned Bergert and Rick Smith] have been doing a great job with exercises, putting tape on it. As long as I do my treadmill—exercises to make it stronger—I'll be fine. It's not a big deal. I just have to make sure not to land so hard. It's the only change I've made. Now [the delivery] is more on a line, not toward first base. Now it's quick, short, let it go," Rodriguez said. The problem with changing your mechanics due to a foot problem is that your body coordinates movements based on information it receives from other body parts, particularly your feet, eyes, and spine. Your feet are your body's primary interaction with the ground, and when your ankle is injured, and you are landing differently, you are going to throw differently because your body is going to recruit the stabilizing muscles of your spine, shoulder, hips, etc. in a different manner—or not at all. The body is not going to be stabilized properly. The nervous system picks up on the pain, and creates a "new" way for your body to move. This can lead to further pathology and injury. If his ankle is still bothering him, and is changing how he is throwing, you can easily see how there would be concern for injury to other body parts, particularly his shoulder or elbow, or perhaps something else. Be very cautious here. It may sound like an innocent problem, but all K-Rod owners should have Shields and Speier on speed dial in case he starts complaining of shoulder soreness or stiffness as a result of his altered mechanics. If last season's splits are any indication—and they very well may be—K-Rod could be in for a down year, in the realm of a 3.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Bet you wish you waited to select your closers later in the draft, huh? Posted by Chris Neault at 4:56am Fantasy roundtable: Most valuable undrafted playerThis week's fantasy roundtable is up over at RotoAuthority. The question this week: Which undrafted player will provide the most fantasy value in 2008, and why? We'll define undrafted as outside of the first 276 picks in a typical mixed league. Check it out if you're interested! Posted by Derek Carty at 12:57pm Saturday, April 05, 2008Hype machine: Johnny CuetoAfter the debut Johnny Cueto had and all the articles about it around the blogosphere, I wasn't going to pen one myself. However, there are some things to be cautious/worried about, so I felt it right to do so. If you are in a league with me where I own Mr. Cueto, please be advised that he is the next Pedro Martinez. Don't feel the need to keep reading. If you're not in such a league, I strongly advise you to read on. NumbersYEAR LEVEL LEAGUE AGE G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% BABIP 2005 RK GCL 19 13 6 43 8.0 1.7 56% 0.353 2006 A MDW 20 14 14 76.1 9.8 1.8 53% 0.254 2006 A+ FSL 20 12 12 61.2 8.9 3.4 36% 0.268 2007 A+ FSL 21 14 14 78.1 8.3 2.4 47% 0.302 2007 AA SL 21 10 10 61 11.4 1.6 38% 0.326 2007 AAA IL 21 4 4 22 8.6 0.8 34% 0.317 Cueto is obviously good. Even at just 21 years of age, he logged 161.1 innings across three levels in 2007. It wouldn't be surprising to see him pitch 180 or 190 innings in 2008. Another positive is his control. It has been fantastic, especially at Double-A and Triple-A. After these, though, there are some things to consider. First is the strikeouts. He certainly can get them, but the only time he posted an elite strikeout rate was in Double-A last year after having just an 8.3 K/9 earlier in the year at High-A. Not exactly what we would expect to see, and this inconsistency has to make us pause, at least for a moment, when evaluating him for 2008. The major problem with Cueto, though, is the ground ball rate. They were great at the lower levels, but fell off and were somewhat inconsistent from High-A on. In Double-A and Triple-A, they were downright bad. For most pitchers, this isn't a huge deal if they have strikeout and walk rates like Cueto does. What makes Cueto different is the team he belongs to and the home park he will play in. Great American Ballpark inflates home runs by 28 percent, the third highest figure among all major league parks. That could spell trouble for Cueto. All it will take is a little bad luck for him to appear to be greatly struggling, especially if his K/9 is under 8.00 or so. Even with neutral luck, homers will be a problem if he can't get that ground ball rate up. Given the irrationality the Reds tend to display at times, they could even demote Cueto if he starts to struggle. Cueto will one day be a very good pitcher. I'd just like you to temper your expectations for this season. If you currently own Cueto, now might be a good time to sell high. Trade valueHe received a lot of buzz after earning a rotation spot out of spring training over the likes of Homer Bailey. Now, after his seven-inning, one-hit, 10-strikeout, no-walk debut and all the positive write-ups about him, his value is sky high. Be very active over the next few days talking to the other owners in your league, gauging interest. Don't trade him for the sake of trading him—he is a quality pitcher—but if you can get a good, proven commodity, jump all over it. This advice goes double if a pitcher like Manny Parra or even Cueto's teammate Edinson Volquez is still available on the waiver wire to replace him. In keeper leagues, it really depends on the situation. I currently own him in a keeper league and will likely hold onto him. But if someone offers me another young, proven, quality player, I'd be foolish not to consider it. Also, I've run into one person who was worried about the effect Dusty Baker would have on Cueto, possible working him too hard. If you run into someone like that, simply direct them to this article. As long as they are open to logic, their fears should be alleviated. Further readingMike Fast, a recent addition to the THT team, wrote a very interesting analysis of Cueto's first outing using PITCHf/x data. It's currently being featured at THT Live; here's a link if you'd like to check it out. It's a good read. Kiley McDaniel at Saber-Scouting also had a nice writeup of Cueto's arsenal last week. Posted by Derek Carty at 10:06am (0) Comments Waiver Wire: American LeagueWelcome to the first Waiver Wire of the season! Every week, I'll look at players from each league and pick out some who would be worthwhile pickups. Please be aware that the recommendations given are rough estimates. If you're in a head-to-head league where you're employing a strategy like the one I discussed a few weeks ago, Carlos Gomez could be owned in a shallow mixed league, even though my recommendation says the minimum is a 12 or 14-team league. Please adjust accordingly. These recommendations are simply a guideline, for comparative purposes; they give a rough estimate of each player's value in a vacuum. Before we start, I'd like to remind you of a few fairly obvious tips when considering who to pick up. Don't pick up a pitcher simply because he has a good start. One start is too small a sample size. You shouldn't be changing your opinions of players for at least another few weeks (except for guys who get injured). Also, I won't mention them all here, but anybody with a job closing should be owned in all leagues except the absolute shallowest of mixed leagues. All this being said, let's look at the players! American LeagueMark Lowe | SEA | CL: With J.J. Putz on the DL, Lowe should close most games. He hasn't been healthy in two years, but some have been raving about his stuff. He's a closer regardless and is worth a pickup in all leagues. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues J.J. Putz | SEA | CL: Putz has actually been dropped in nearly 2,000 Yahoo! leagues over the past two days. If someone in your league dropped him, first pick him up immediately. After that, you might want to seek out a little more competitive league. He's worth keeping even if you're forced to use an active spot on him. My colleague Chris Neault had this to say about him over at his Disabled List Informer blog: "I would expect a 15-day DL stint, followed by a week or two of gradual throwing before returning to action." Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues Jeremy Accardo | TOR | CL: B.J. Ryan is slated to come off the DL in about a week, but he will share closing duties with Accardo for "some time," according to the Toronto Star. With all the misinformation that comes out of Toronto, Accardo needs to be owned until we're sure Ryan is completely healthy. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues Dan Wheeler/Al Reyes | TB | RP - As I noted a couple weeks ago, Troy Percival is a big injury risk this year. Al Reyes might get the first crack at the job, but he's also a trade candidate and less talented than Wheeler. In deeper leagues, these guys make decent speculative picks. Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12-team and owned in most 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues. Scot Shields | LAA | RP: After reading Chris Neault's analysis of Francisco Rodriguez, I'm a bit concerned. Shields has plenty of talent and would make a fine closer. He also makes a fine speculative pick. Feel free to take him in shallower leagues than I have listed if it makes sense in the context of your league and strategy. Recommendation: Should be considered in 12-team and owned in most 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues. Evan Longoria | TB | 3B - If Longoria was dropped in your league after his demotion, pick him up if you have a bench spot available. I talked about Longoria the other day, so check it out for more detailed info on him. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Carlos Gomez | MIN | OF: A hot pickup since he's claimed the center field job in Minnesota and because he has blazing speed. He had an 82 percent stolen base success rate in 219 games at Double-A through the majors (excluding his 12 for 13 since the beginning of spring). He won't hit for much power, though, and the batting average won't be great. He also doesn't have a great history of walks, so he'll be a little limited with the steals potential. He does have a 42 percent stolen base attempt rate at Double-A or above, and although it won't be that high in the majors this year, if he's given the green light he certainly isn't afraid to run. He's also leading off, so he'll have some value with runs. Recommendation: Can be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues. Mike Napoli | TEX | C: Napoli didn't get drafted in a lot of leagues, but he has the potential to be a No. 1 catcher. He strikes out a lot, but he has good power for a catcher, takes a lot of walks, and hits in a pretty good lineup. The batting average won't be very pretty, but how many catchers is it pretty for? If you missed out on the top catchers in your draft, Napoli is a good guy to consider. Recommendation: Should be owned in all two-catcher leagues. Should be considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team, one-catcher mixed leagues. Jose Guillen | KC | OF: Guillen's suspension has been pushed back and might get dropped completely. He is one of those unspectacular guys who often goes overlooked, but he has solid skills still. He's could hit 20 or 25 home runs and hit over .280. Plus, he hits in a prime RBI spot, albeit for a subpar team. He'll provide different value from Gomez, but he could have more. Recommendation: Should be considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues. Aaron Hill | TOR | 2B: Hill is probably owned in your league, but in case he isn't, I wanted to mention him. Hill is 26 years old now and entering his prime. He has good contact rates, a solid BABIP history, and improving power. He hits in a park that inflates homers by 21 percent for righties, so that will continue to help him if his power continues to improve. He could hit 20-plus home runs and hit near .300. Batting seventh isn't great for his RBI and runs potential, but he hit mostly fifth, sixth and seventh last year and had 87 runs and 78 RBIs. He just needs to continue playing nearly every day. Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Brian Bannister | KC | SP: I love that Bannister is into sabermetrics and am excited to follow him this season, but he's not a guy I'm going to have on my fantasy team. He really doesn't do anything well. He doesn't strike out many batters, doesn't have great control, and doesn't get many ground balls. Don't let his fast start fool you. Recommendation: Should only be owned in very deep mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Andy Sonnanstine | TB | SP: Undrafted in most leagues, Sonnanstine is a good pitcher. He has a decent strikeout rate and great control with a little potential for upward mobility with the strikeout rate. His 61 percent left-on-base rate and .329 BABIP last year were unlucky. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Scott Baker | MIN | SP: Another guy with a league average strikeout rate and good control. Solid pickup. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Kevin Slowey | MIN | SP: Yet another guy in the Baker/Sonnanstine mold. Might have a little bit more strikeout potential than Baker. He's injured, though, and might not be back until the end of the month. If you have an open DL slot and need pitching, he's a decent guy to stash. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. (Both assuming you can stash him.) Livan Hernandez | MIN | SP: Yet another Minnesota pitcher. Unlike Baker and Slowey, Livan is awful. 3.96 K/9, 3.48 BB/9, 39 percent GB rate in Arizona last year spells doom for 2008. Stay far away. Recommendation: Should be owned only in the deepest of AL-only leagues. Closing thoughtsI'll be back tomorrow with the National League. Stay tuned! Posted by Derek Carty at 10:07am (0) Comments Sunday, April 06, 2008Waiver Wire: National LeagueYesterday, we looked at some American League targets. I gave my disclaimers yesterday, but there's one thing I left a little unclear. I said you shouldn't change your opinion of players this early in the year except in the case of an injury, but a loss in playing time is another reason to change up your valuation a little bit. Now let's jump into the National League. National LeagueJon Rauch | WAS | CL: With Chad Cordero injured, Rauch will be in until at least Friday. He needs to be owned until then. Chris Neault said that "the possibility of (Cordero's) shoulder flaring up within a month's time is probably 50/50." If you have room, it might even be worth it to hold onto Rauch afterwards. If he's currently owned in your league and you have room, consider picking him up when his owner likely drops him on Friday. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Tony Pena/Chad Qualls | ARZ | RP: It's only a matter of time before Brandon Lyon is pulled from the closer's role. If it happens sooner than later, Pena probably will take over. If it happens later in the year, Chad Qualls is a better pitcher and might pass him. Pena makes a good speculative pick in most leagues where this is appropriate, and Qualls is a good speculative pick in deeper leagues. Recommendation: Can be considered in deep 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues. Carlos Marmol | CHC | RP: With Kerry Wood closing in Chicago, Marmol might have been dropped in your league. He has the best talent in the Chicago pen and is the closer of the future. If Wood underachieves, Marmol could step in and be a very good closer. Great speculative pick. Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Johnny Cueto | CIN | SP: I talked about Cueto in-depth yesterday. While he has significant risk involved and is probably overrated, he's still good and worth a pickup in all leagues, if for no other purpose than as trade bait. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Manny Parra | MIL | SP: Parra made his major league debut yesterday and pitched well. It's possibile he'll be sent down when Yovanni Gallardo comes back, but it makes little sense for the Brewers to straight up release Claudio Vargas, have Parra make just a couple starts, start his arbitration clock, and then send him back down. He's got good skills and is a great alternative if you missed out on Cueto. Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues. Edinson Volquez | CIN | SP: Control might be a little problem, but Volquez is capable of dominating. He should get a lot of strikeouts. I talked about him in Part 1 of my "Young pitchers to watch" series. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Nick Johnson | WAS | 1B: Johnson could easily miss some time in 2008, but he's shown great skills in the past that warrant a roster spot, especially since he has the first base gig to himself. A .290 average with 20 or 25 home runs is completely within reason. Batting fourth with Ryan Zimmerman and Lastings Milledge ahead of him should help with RBIs and having Austin Kearns behind him should help with runs. Comeback player of the year? Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues. Corey Patterson | CIN | OF: Jay Bruce could press him, but he's starting for now and does some things well. A .270 average with a bunch of steals and runs, plus a little power is what to expect from him. He's ownable until Bruce gets recalled. Recommendation: Should owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 10-team NL-only leagues. Nate McLouth | PIT | OF: McClouth might not hit more than .260, but he showed an increase in several skills last year. At 26-years old, he could be primed for a breakout. He has a 95 percent career stolen base success rate and 18 percent and 24 percent stolen base attempt percentages in 2006 and 2007. His walk rate improved to 11 percent last year, allowing him to reach base more and therefore steal more. As long as he doesn't regress too far, 20 steals should be in the picture. He's leading off, so he should score plenty of runs, too. He also improved his fly ball rate to 53 percent in 2007 and he is entering his physical peak. That fly ball rate is likely to regress a little, but McClouth could hit 15-plus homers. Recommendation: Should owned in 12-team and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues. Scott Hairston | SD | OF: His batting average might not go much higher than .260, but Hairston has some power. He hits a good amount of fly balls and can hit the ball a good distance. He's batting fifth now, so 20 homers and 80 or 90 RBIs is a distinct possibility. He needs to watch out for Chase Headley, though. Recommendation: Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Jeff Keppinger | CIN | MI: Keppinger should be a solid bet for a batting average around .300. Batting second and his 9 percent walk rate last year should help him score runs. He might also pick up a moderate number of RBIs, but don't expect many homers or steals. Still, given your strategy and team makeup, he could be a solid pickup. Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues. Juan Pierre | LAD | OF: If anyone in your league dropped Pierre following the announcement that Andre Ethier had eclipsed him, pick him up. He's started two of five games so far and there's a pretty good chance he'll get traded. Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues. Matt Kemp | LAD | OF: I know this LA situation is tricky, but Kemp was dropped in 5,500 Yahoo! leagues yesterday. That's just ridiculous for a guy with his talent and whose average draft position was 125. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Chris Snyder | ARZ | C: He's off to a slow start, but he's a prime candidate to step into the upper echelon of catchers this year. His batting average won't be great, but good enough for a catcher, and his HitTracker profile showed that he has good deal of power. He was dropped to seventh in the lineup after hitting fifth and sixth to start the year, but if he starts hitting, that could change again. He also takes walks (11 percent career), which should help his cause. Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 8-team and owned in 10-team two-catcher mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in most 14-team single-catcher leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Posted by Derek Carty at 9:39am (0) Comments Thursday, April 10, 2008Player spotlight: Mark ReynoldsAs you may have noticed, Mark Reynolds of the Arizona Diamondbacks is off to a blistering start with a .344 batting average, .400 on-base percentage, five home runs, and a ridiculous 14.29 RC/27. I've gotten a couple of questions from fantasy leaguers wondering how legit Reynolds is. Let's look first at his power numbers. PowerYEAR AGE LEVEL LEAGUE AB OF FB% HR/FB AB/HR AB/(2B+3B) AB/XBH 2005 21 A MDW 434 36% 17% 23 16 9 2006 22 A+ CAL 273 42% 27% 12 14 6 2006 22 AA SL 114 38% 28% 14 16 8 2007 23 AA SL 134 32% 18% 22 12 8 2007 23 MLB MLB 366 38% 19% 22 15 9 2008 24 MLB MLB 32 52% 42% 6 32 5 Reynolds' 2008 pace is ridiculous and won't be continued. He's hitting a home run every six at-bats. Over 500 at-bats, that would give him 83. As much power as he has, it's not going to happen. This high number is being fueled by two things. The first is an extremely high HR/FB rate (42 percent) which will have to regress. The second is his 52 percent outfield fly ball rate. It's possible he will sustain this (or a number close to it), but he has been over 40 percent just once in his career, which was at Advanced-A ball in 2006. Perhaps he has changed his approach to hit more fly balls, but a 32 at-bat sample is far too small to say for sure. Has anyone noticed a difference in his swing that might be causing this and might lead us to believe it can be sustained? Shoot me an e-mail if you have. Even a 20 percent HR/FB with a 40 percent fly ball rate— in line with his career norms — would make him a very good power hitter. He is 24 years old now, though, and on the upswing of his career. I think he could easily do better than this, at least in the HR/FB area. Let's examine some HitTracker data on him. If you look at his HitTracker profile from 2007 compared even to a guy like Jim Thome's HitTracker profile, there is a very noticeable difference. Thome has more dots (home runs) on his graph because he had more at-bats and a higher contact rate, and it's worth noting his home park inflates lefty home runs by 40 percent. Reynolds, however, seemed to show more raw power. Reynolds pounded the ball, with three clearing 450 feet, two coming close, and 10 (total) clearing 400 feet. Thome didn't hit any past 450. I also like that Reynolds pulls his home runs. Most are hit to left field. As we've said in the past, it makes perfect sense that when a batter can hit the ball, say 450 feet, this is his maximum effectiveness. He also will hit many that fall short of 450, a higher number than those that go 450. Reynolds didn't hit a ton of those in 2007. Once they start dropping in (and they will drop in more frequently being hit to left field than center), we could really see his power numbers rise. Now let's look at his 2008 HitTracker profile. He is again showing monster power. A very neat HitTracker addition this year can be seen in the column furthest to the right, titled "# Parks." This is a measure of how many MLB ballparks each hit would have been a home run in. Three of Reynolds' five home runs would have cleared the fence in all 30 parks. Another would have in 25 parks. Reynolds, simply put, has absolute monster power potential. If he somehow managed to keep his fly ball rate at 50 percent, I can't even imagine the power numbers he would put up. ContactYEAR AGE LEVEL LEAGUE AB BA CT BABIP LD% BB% AB/HR 2005 21 A MDW 434 0.253 75% 0.295 14% 8% 23 2006 22 A+ CAL 273 0.333 74% 0.382 17% 13% 12 2006 22 AA SL 114 0.272 68% 0.333 14% 9% 14 2007 23 AA SL 134 0.306 76% 0.365 20% 13% 22 2007 23 MLB MLB 366 0.279 65% 0.386 20% 9% 22 2008 24 MLB MLB 32 0.344 72% 0.333 22% 9% 6 Reynolds is not a .344 hitter, that much is clear. The primary cause of this inflated batting average, though, is not his BABIP, as we might suspect. In fact, the BABIP could very well improve despite already being a very healthy .333. He has a good career of BABIPs, and Marcels projected a .360 BABIP for 2008. Bill James projected .370. The cause of this high average is actually his inflated home run rate. As I said earlier, he's hitting a home run every six at-bats. That's a .167 batting average on home runs alone. Unsustainable. There are some encouraging signs for his batting average, though. One is the potential for an improved contact rate this year. It was below 70 percent just once in his minor league career (as it was in the majors in 2007), and he is currently at 72 percent. Reynolds is seen by some experts as a low batting average guy, but a contact rate above 70 percent is nowhere near that of other potent power hitters like Jack Cust (58 percent), Ryan Howard (62 percent), and Jonny Gomes (64 percent) to whom he is compared sometimes. 2008 productionA contact rate of 70 percent, a BABIP of .360, and an AB/HR of 19 (based on a 20 percent HR/FB and 38 percent outfield fly ball rate) would give Reynolds a .305 batting average. That is stunning even to me. I expected to see something closer to .270 or .280. Let's fool around with some more possibilities. If the BABIP were just .320, the batting average would fall to exactly .280. And as we know, BABIP is prone to unexplainable swings, but if Marcels and James are right about it, Reynolds could be in for a big year despite a well below-average contact rate. Let's say the contact rate were just 65 percent, like last year. That would give him a .286 average. If the contact rate were 65 percent and the BABIP were .320, then his batting average would tumble all the way to .260. Given a 70 percent contact rate, a 20 percent HR/FB, a 38 percent outfield fly ball rate, and 500 at-bats, Reynolds would hit 27 home runs. A drop to a 65 percent contact rate would bring that down to 25 home runs. A relatively small increase in fly ball rate or an increase in at-bats could cause him to hit over 30 homers. LineupReynolds has batted fifth for the past five games and is in a very good spot for RBIs. He has Conor Jackson (and his great OBP), Orlando Hudson and Eric Byrnes batting ahead of him. Behind him, he'll generally have some combination of Justin Upton (who is showing great power potential himself so far this year), Chris Snyder (whose power I said I liked in my NL Waiver Wire article) and Stephen Drew behind him. He could certainly do worse. Given the quality of batters around him, Reynolds could be in for a breakout year. Closing thoughtsGiven the potential of Reynolds for both a high batting average and a lot of home runs (plus RBIs and runs), he should probably be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues right now. He's now being added at a rapid pace, but if he's available in your league, he's certainly worth a flier. Posted by Derek Carty at 8:18am (0) Comments Friday, April 11, 2008Fun with batting averageWhen writing about Mark Reynolds yesterday, I noticed myself talking about what would happen to his batting average—in exact terms—should different components change. I've been using a simple Excel spreadsheet to determine this for a while now, but I realized that I've never shared it with you guys. I wrote a little about it at MLB Front Office on Wednesday and put up a file for download. The one I'm posting here is a little bit more complex. This one incorporates home run per flyball rate (HR/FB) and flyball rate (FB%). It works pretty simply. First, take a look at the layout:  Pretty intuitive. The only fields you need to fill in are AB, Contact Rate, HR/FB, FB%, and BABIP. Everything else gets calculated for you automatically. Think Mark Teixeira deserved a .300 BABIP? Change it, and the batting average adjusts itself to .274. If you haven't been hanging around here long enough to understand why these stats are important in determining batting average, I'll give you the quick crash course. Contact rate - Contact rate is measured by (AB-K)/AB. It measures how often the ball is contacted, how often the hitter doesn't strike out. Logically, the only way a ball can possibly turn into a hit is if the batter makes contact. If he strikes out, it is not possible for him to reach base via hit. Contact rate remains pretty stable from year-to-year. BABIP - Stands for Batting Average on Balls in Play, measured by (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K). BABIP measures the rate that balls put into the field of play fall for hits. BABIP is prone to fluctuations, sometimes quite large, and often due to random luck. Home Runs - Home runs make up the remaining portion of hits, hits on contact balls that don't fall into the field of play, but rather clear the fences and are—essentially— ndefensible. Home runs are broken down into two stats. Flyball rate - The percentage of contacted balls that are fly balls. Used in conjunction with HR/FB (and AB) to calculate the raw number of home runs. Only balls that are hit in the air can become home runs, which is why we use fly ball rate. Line drives can be home runs too, but very few do (in 2007, just 3.5 percent of all home runs were line drives). Flyball rate is somewhat stable from year-to-year and is a definitive skill. HR/FB - Home run per flyball rate. Simply measures how many fly balls it takes for a batter to hit a home run. A definitive skill and more skill related than BABIP, but we do sometimes see some regression to the mean. Note: I prefer to use outfield flyball rate and home runs per outfield fly ball. I think excluding infield flies (i.e. popups) is good practice because these balls have zero chance of becoming home runs and aren't indicative of good power, which is really what we are trying to show. Either one will work in this calculator as long as you stay consistent. The example currently in the calculator includes infield flies. Concluding thoughtsNothing revolutionary, but I think this will make these types of calculations a lot easier and quicker. Also, if you've struggled to understand how the three elements of batting average (contact rate, BABIP, and home run rate) interact, fooling around a little with this should help clarify it for you. Hopefully, throughout the year, as we see certain players putting up lucky or unlucky numbers (maybe BABIP or HR/FB or, early on, FB%), we'll be able to use this to quickly find out what we should expect them to hit going forward, taking the adjustment into account. Or you can just have fun fooling around with it, trying different combinations! If you have any questions, feel free to let me know! Download the calculatorDownload the calculator!Posted by Derek Carty at 3:41am Fantasy roundtable: When to push the panic buttonThis week's fantasy roundtable is hosted by the Baseball Geeks. The topic: In any given fantasy season, when is the time that a fantasy manager should decide that extreme measures are necessary (i.e., a fire sale or a free agent exodus) in order to improve a poorly performing team? Just when is it time, if ever, to lose trust in your draft and press the panic button? Here is the link! |