May 26, 2012
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 Sunday, April 27, 2008Waiver Wire: American League (Week 4)Not a particularly deep class of American Leaguers this week. In the coming weeks, I'll be much more thorough. American LeagueFrank Thomas | OAK | UT: Shortly after I wrote an article about him, Frank Thomas signed with the Oakland A's. This is the scenario I considered most likely, and just because it happened doesn't make the reasoning behind that article any less sound. As I've said before, if you focus on getting the process right, the results will fall into place. I hope you hung onto Thomas (or picked him up when his previous owner dropped him), but if he's still out there, I'd go get him. Still has excellent power and could hit .270. Recommendation: Should be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues. Matt Stairs | TOR | 1B/OF: With Thomas out of Toronto, Matt Stairs will get the majority of the at-bats at DH. The Rogers Centre inflates lefty homers by 26 percent, and Stairs' HitTracker profile shows that he has good raw power. These factors combined with a 40-plus percent fly ball rate should allow Stairs to hit a good amount of home runs. Last year he hit his most since 2000, but it was no fluke. He's 40 years old, but given 500 at-bats he could hit .275 with 25 home runs. Batting fifth, he could also net a bunch of RBIs. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Adam Lind | TOR | OF: Lind will probably start versus most righties and could be moderately effective. Given 400 at-bats, Lind could hit .260 and approach 15 homers. His contact rate is below average, though, so that batting average is dependent upon receiving neutral BABIP luck. Bad luck could make the batting average look really ugly. Has good potential, though, especially with power. Recommendation:- Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. John Danks | CHW | SP: Danks is a hot add now, but he's currently being aided by a .251 BABIP and 0.0 HR/FB. He will regress, but he still has some talent. Peripherals aren't great so far, but it's early, and his 7.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 were solid last year. They were even better in the minors in 2006. A 35 percent ground ball rate doesn't play well in U.S. Cellular, which inflates homers by 30 percent. That rate is up to 49 percent this year, though. He has faced only 93 batters and this could easily come down, but he becomes a much better option if it doesn't. Overall, he's been lucky but is decent with some potential. Recommendation: Should be owned only in very deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues. Armando Galarraga | DET | SP: I mentioned Galarraga last week after his very good first start, but his second wasn't as good. He didn't give up any runs and he struck on four in 5.1 innings, but he also walked four. Given his so-so control in the minors and his lack of much experience above Double-A, he might be in for some rough starts. With how he's pitching, though, and the possibility that Jeremy Bonderman is injured, he could stay on in the majors for a little while longer. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Matt Garza | TB | SP: Garza made his return Friday night. A lot of people love his stuff, but his numbers have been quite mediocre thus far in his major league career. He had a 7.3 K/9 and a 3.5 BB/9 last year to go with a 43 percent career ground ball rate. These are decent, but not great. He's a marginal mixed league pickup, although he does have some upside. Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Scott Baker | MIN | SP: I mentioned Baker in week one, but he still is owned in just 4.3 percent of ESPN leagues despite a 3.51 ERA thus far. His K/9, BB/9, and GB percentage are all slightly improved over last year, making his current ERA only a little luckier than we might expect. Those skills might regress a little, but an ERA around or under 4.00 is completely within reason. Weird combination of luck so far: .234 BABIP, 91 percent LOB rate, but a 24 percent HR/FB. It mostly has evened out. I stand by my positive earlier reviews of Baker, though he left Saturday night's start with a groin strain. Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Gary Sheffield | DET | OF: If Sheffield has been dropped in your league, he is definitely a risk, but might be worth a pickup. The cortisone shots he's receiving could indicate some weakness in the shoulder, which might be the cause of his decreased power so far. If I picked him up, I'd keep him on the bench until he starts to hit, but he's got talent and could certainly turn his season around. He has the potential to hit .290 with 20 home runs and 10-15 steals; how likely this is, I don't know. I would still say it's too early to drop him, though. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues. Jason Kubel | MIN | OF: Not sure how I've gone three weeks without mentioning Kubel. I own Kubel in one expert league this year, and he has pretty good skills. He could hit .280 with 18 or so home runs given 500 at-bats. He's been hitting mostly sixth and a little in the third spot for the Twins, so he should be a good bet for RBIs as well. Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10-team and owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Scot Shields | LAA | RP: Francisco Rodriguez isn't out of the woods yet. If he gets reinjured, Scot Shields will fill in and could become a top 10 closer immediately. He's a decent speculative pickup. Can be owned in shallower leagues if it fits with your strategy and you have room. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Mark Lowe | SEA | RP: J.J. Putz is back and closing, so Lowe loses a lot of his value. He can be dropped in nearly all leagues because even if Putz gets hurt again, it's no guarantee Lowe will fill in. Recommendation: Should be dropped in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Posted by Derek Carty at 11:56am (0) Comments Waiver Wire: National League (Week 4)Really sorry for how late this is coming, guys. Next week these should probably come earlier, and definitely each week after that. Before we get started, I have a couple of additions to the American League Waiver Wire that I forgot to include yesterday. American LeagueFrancisco Liriano | MIN | SP: Liriano has been sent to the minors and probably has been dropped in your league after three awful starts. If you remember our original chat about him this off-season, there was an expectation that he would struggle for the first two months. I think his current status is well beyond that, but I'm not ready to give up on him. If you have more than a few bench spots, I think he's worth hanging onto for a while longer. Clay Buchholz | BOS | SP: Buchholz is owned in 89 percent of ESPN leagues, but he was dropped in a very competitive league I'm in, so if he's available in yours, go get him. He got off to a rough start, but he has plenty of talent and is starting to shape up. Innings will be limited, but they will also be high quality. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. National LeagueBrian Fuentes | COL | CL: Fuentes was named the closer in Colorado last week, and he's probably already been scooped up in your league. If not, go grab him. Reasons for concern: low ground ball rate doesn't play particularly well in Coors, worse-than-average walk rate amplifies runs created by homers. Good news is that he has a career HR/FB of 9.1 percent, two points below average, all while playing for the Rockies. He seems to be getting a lot of hype, though, and if you were first to him and can trade him for a more qualified closer (or a good starter or hitter), it might be worth it. Read on. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Manny Corpas | COL | CL: The Rockies might prefer the 25-year old Corpas as their closer of the future, so they will probably give him the opportunity to take it back. He showed good control last year and a great ground ball rate, but he doesn't strike out as many guys as Fuentes. Corpas was lucky last year with a .260 BABIP and 85 percent LOB rate, so maybe the Rockies were expecting too much out of him. If his peripherals return to their 2007 levels, though, he's probably marginally better than Fuentes, and his age should give him the edge. I'm not dropping Corpas if I own him (I don't) and picking him up if someone else does (they haven't yet). Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Jonathan Sanchez | SF | SP: Look at these two lines and tell me which you'd prefer to own. 11.57 K/9 | 3.54 BB/9 | 37% GB% | 22% Home Park HR Deflation 9.23 K/9 | 4.00 BB/9 | 47% GB% | 22% Home Park HR Deflation That first line looks a little better, doesn't it? That first line is Jonathan Sanchez' peripheral line this year. The second is Tim Lincecum's from last year. Sanchez has always struck batters out (10.73 K/9 in 2007); his problem has just been the control (4.85 in 2007). Granted, we're only 28 innings into the year for Sanchez, but he clearly has talent and is worth a pickup now to see if he is for real. If nothing else, he'll provide fantastic value in terms of strikeouts. Also, while he gives up a lot of fly balls, his park should help to keep the homers down. The best part? He currently sports a 3.54 ERA, but all of his luck indicators are neutral. Who doesn't want a 3.50 ERA guy who will strike out 11 batters per game? Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Mark Hendrickson | FLA | SP: Hendrickson currently has a 3.68 ERA and is crediting his success to off-season laser eye surgery. What he should crediting, though, is good fortune: a .270 BABIP and 4.5 percent HR/FB. Peripherals have been bad as a starter (though were quite good as a reliever last year), so don't buy into the early success. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team NL-only leagues. Todd Wellemeyer | STL | SP: What is up with Wellemeyer? 9.00 K/9 with a 2.90 BB/9? I read somewhere that the change occured when he was traded to the Cards last year, but that doesn't seem to be the case. He had a 6.57 K/9 and 4.20 BB/9 as a starter for them last year. He's said to have decent stuff and was once a decent prospect, but he's 29 now and this is coming out of nowhere. What can his minor league record tell us? Well, we see pretty good strike rates as high as Triple-A, but his BB/9 was below 3.52 just once, in 2002 at Advanced-A. Take a chance if you want, but there are probably guys with better records you could go after. Recommendation: Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues, for now. Ryan Theriot | CHC | MI: Ryan Theriot will see his own post in the coming days as I realized that my description of him ran way too long for a Waiver Wire post. Bottom line is this. Theriot can hit .285 with a couple of homers, a bunch of steals, and a lot of runs. Look for more detail todayor Tuesday. Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Felipe Lopez | WAS | MI: Lopez has overtaken Ronnie Belliard for the starting second base spot in Washington and makes a decent pickup this week. He has good speed and was allowed to attempt a steal 20 percent of the time despite playing under Manny Acta (who I love as a manager, by the way), though he is successful only about 75 percent of the time. He could hit .275 with 25 steals or so. He should also score plenty of runs hitting leadoff for the Nationals and with his decent walk rates. He also has surprising power that could be boosted by a new park this year. Check out his HitTracker profile and click to 2007. Those dots perfectly form the shape of RFK Stadium's fences, which decreased homers by 32 percent. The low fly ball rate limits his power potential, but a dozen or more homers should be within reason. Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Clint Barmes | COL | MI: I don't think Barmes is for real. He puts up good contact rates, but he doesn't have much power or a good BABIP history. His BABIP this year appears to be driven by a 26 percent line drive rate completely out of line with his career. He might have made changes, but I'm not banking on it. Low batting average, no power, little speed. Not my cup of tea. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues. Moises Alou | NYM | OF: Alou hits when he plays, and with him set to come off the DL next week, now is the time to pick him up. In 300 at-bats, Alou could hit right around .300 and approach 15 home runs. He could hit as high as fifth with Carlos Delgado struggling, which would set him up for plenty of RBIs. Good play while healthy. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Skip Schumaker | STL | OF: Thumbs down on Schumaker. He could hit .280, but that's about all he'll be good for. Not much power, not much speed. He might also get some runs batting leadoff for the Cards, but his current run total looks a little inflated by his out-of-the-ordinary 14 percent walk rate. He's only halfway to the benchmark Pizza Cutter found, so that should regress. Not a good add. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team NL-only leagues. Joey Votto | CIN | 1B: I forgot to mention Votto last week, and now that he is playing every day he needs to be owned. He could hit .280 assuming a .330 BABIP, but he hasn't had one below .341 since 2005 in Advanced-A. With a .345 BABIP, the average goes up to .291. He could also hit 20 or so home runs given 500 at-bats. Hitting behind Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Dunn and Brandon Phillips should help with RBIs. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Chad Qualls | ARZ | RP: We'll talk more about speculative adds at closer in the coming days, but Qualls is a good one. I think he's ahead of Tony Pena right now, and with Brandon Lyon's luck set to run out at any minute, Qualls could be closing in a matter of weeks. Can be owned in all leagues you have room. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Mike Gonzalez | ATL | RP: Gonzalez is now shooting for a May return, and if Rafael Soriano continues to struggle with injuries, he could take over the closer's role. He has good talent and will just need to prove him health. If you have an open DL slot, he should be picked up right now. If you have to use a bench spot on him, I'd probably wait. I still have some faith left in Soriano. Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues. Posted by Derek Carty at 12:09pm (0) Comments Tuesday, April 29, 2008Player spotlight: Ryan TheriotI know Ryan Theriot is sort of a random guy to spotlight, but I realized Sunday while writing the National League Waiver Wire that there is a lot to be said about Theriot. Perhaps not great as a real-life baseball player, he is a pretty good fantasy player. The real reason I like Theriot, though, is because he understands his skills and his limitations and he uses the skills he does possess optimally. Whether this is a concentrated effort can be argued, but it makes for an interesting player analysis. PowerYEAR AGE LEVEL LEAGUE AB HR AB/HR AB/XBH FB% 2004 24 A+ FSL 330 1 330 18 --- 2005 25 AA SL 448 1 448 14 --- 2006 26 AAA PCL 280 0 INF 18 --- 2006 26 MLB MLB 134 3 45 8 24% 2007 27 MLB MLB 537 3 179 15 31% 2008 28 MLB MLB 89 1 89 11 24% As you probably knew before viewing this table, Theriot doesn't have much power. He barely has any. The only reason those AB/XBH figures look somewhat decent is because his speed allows him to get extra doubles and triples. Notice that final column, though. Theriot doesn't have much raw power, and he doesn't try to force it by hitting a lot of fly balls. Contact hittingYEAR AGE LEVEL LEAGUE AB CT BABIP LD% GB% BB% 2004 24 A+ FSL 330 87% 0.311 --- --- 13% 2005 25 AA SL 448 92% 0.330 --- --- 9% 2006 26 AAA PCL 280 88% 0.346 --- --- 9% 2006 26 MLB MLB 134 87% 0.363 27% 50% 11% 2007 27 MLB MLB 537 91% 0.289 21% 49% 8% 2008 28 MLB MLB 89 88% 0.364 28% 48% 11% While Theriot lacks power, his contact rates are always very good and he has a very good history of BABIPs. He manages to keep them good because he doesn't try to be something he isn't. He isn't a power hitter, so he hits very few fly balls. Instead, he hits a lot of line drives—the most likely batted ball type to fall for a hit—and ground balls. Ground balls are more likely than fly balls to become hits to begin with, and Theriot can use his speed to beat out even more of them. Stolen BasesYEAR AGE LEVEL LEAGUE AB SBA SBO% SBA% SB% 2004 24 A+ FSL 330 24 0.323 20% 54% 2005 25 AA Sou 448 34 0.302 23% 71% 2006 26 AAA PCL 280 17 0.317 17% 82% 2006 26 MLB MLB 134 15 0.301 33% 87% 2007 27 MLB MLB 537 32 0.268 20% 88% 2008 28 MLB MLB 89 11 0.317 34% 55% For fantasy purposes, Theriot derives a lot of value from his stolen bases. He was successful at a good clip in 2006 and 2007 at Triple-A and in the majors and has constantly attempted them at a high rate. So far this year, though, his success rate is at an abysmal 55 percent. This not only poses the problem of him actually getting caught (and therefore not getting a steal for his fantasy owners), but the more he gets caught, the more likely it becomes he will not be allowed to run as much. While this is a concern, I'm not too worried. First, his current 34 percent attempt percentage is the highest of his career at any level. It's possible all he'll need to do is be more selective and the success rate will go back up. It's also possible this is just a sample size issue. Furthermore, his manager is Lou Piniella. If we look at his page in the 2008 Bill James Handbook, we see that Piniella's teams led the league in stolen base attempts in both 2001 and 2002, and in 2005, actually attempted more than in 2002. Last year, his Cubs were in the bottom-half of the league, but from 1998 to 2005 he always seemed to let his guys run, so I don't think we should be too concerned about him holding Theriot back. I do think Theriot's attempt percentage will drop—as it probably should—and Theriot will be fine. ExpectationsGiven 600 plate appearances, a 9 percent walk rate, an 89 percent contact rate, a .310 BABIP, a 4 percent HR/FB ratio, and a 25 percent fly ball rate (I know, a lot of components), Ryan Theriot would hit .282. He would also manage to hit five home runs, although that could easily be just two with a lower HR/FB. Given the prior assumptions, a 25 percent stolen base attempt rate, and an 85 percent success rate, Theriot would steal 35 bases. Not bad at all. Factor in that he is batting second—ahead of Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Kosuke Fukudome—with an above-average walk rate and good speed, and he should score plenty of runs. He also has a little bit of upside. If he continues hitting this many line drives and his BABIP stays above .330 or so the entire year (it has in the past), the batting average would go above .300. Also, if he keeps attempting steals at this rate and starts succeeding at his old rate, he could approach 50 steals. Concluding thoughtsOverall, Theriot has limitations, but he maximizes the skills that he has. He focuses on his contact hitting, patience and speed, which makes him a pretty valuable fantasy player. As I said on Sunday, Theriot should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues and all NL-only leagues. If you have any questions, feel free to let me know. | ||||