November 20, 2009
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 Thursday, May 01, 2008The save speculator: Arizona DiamondbacksWith Manny Corpas' recent removal as the Rockies' closer, I thought we should look at some other closers whose jobs might currently be in jeopardy or might be down the line. . What makes a valuable fantasy closerWe've discussed this before: There are two things that make a valuable fantasy closer. The first is talent and the second is opportunity. A pitcher needs both to be an effective fantasy closer. If a closer is talented, like Matt Capps early last year, but doesn't have the opportunity, he won't pick up many saves. If a closer has the opportunity, like Salomon Torres last year, but doesn't have the talent, he is likely to lose the job. This series of articles will examine situations around the leagues, identify where there is a closer who doesn't possess the talent to keep his job, then assess which of the team's other relievers might replace him. Arizona DiamonbacksBrandon Lyon is currently closing in Arizona, and some feel he will continue to close effectively for the remainder of the year. I am not one of these people. Yes, Lyon currently has a 2.77 ERA and is 8-for-10 in save opportunities. Yes, he also currently has a 6.92 K/9 and 0.69 (!) BB/9. He also, however, has thrown just 13 innings and faced just 50 batters. According to Pizza Cutter, this would put him just one-third of the way toward being meaningful with his strikeouts and less than 10 percent of the way with his walks. PITCHf/x might be helpful here to see if he changed something, and if this continues I'll be sure to take a look, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario looking at a sample this small. Combine this small sample with his poor overall skills in the past, and I'm willing to bet that Lyon regresses. When he does, he won't be closer material. A worse-than-average strikeout and walk rate, combined with a league average ground ball rate in a park that inflates homers by 15 percent isn't exactly a recipe for success. So who replaces him? Well, during the offseason, he and Tony Pena were the two candidates for the job, but several factors lead me to believe that it might actually be Chad Qualls who would get the nod. SkillsQualls has better skills than Pena. Check them both out from 2007: Player K/9 BB/9 GB% Qualls 8.49 2.72 57% Pena 6.64 3.27 48% Qualls was better in each of the big three. He is currently struggling with his control a little bit (4.30 BB/9), but he's only thrown 14.2 innings and his career mark is 2.74. His strikeout rate in 2007 was higher than the rest of his career, but it's high again this year, and after 400 batters faced, I think we can reasonably expect him to keep it up. Also, Pena's current stats are nearly identical to 2007. Furthermore, it can't hurt that Qualls' ERA currently sits at 0.00 while Pena's is at 5.56. OpportunityNeither, obviously, has opportunity now, but there is some evidence that could reasonably lead us to believe that if a choice is to be made, it will be Qualls. So far this year, he is being used in higher leverage situations than Pena. Player gmLI pLI Qualls 1.44 1.42 Pena 1.00 0.98 First, a big thank you to FanGraphs for providing these stats. gmLI, as I talked about this winter, measures the relative importance of the current situation at the time the pitcher enters the game. A little less important, in this context, is pLI, which measures the player's leverage index for all game events. Qualls leads Pena in both by a significant margin. Pena's gmLI is exactly 1.00, meaning that he is being used (on average) in exactly neutral situations. I've shown this stat to some people and they've reasoned that the D-Backs are a progressive organization and probably don't consider their closer their most important reliever. They'd rather use their best relievers (Qualls and Pena) in the higher leverage situations, which usually come up before the ninth inning. While I certainly like this logic in the grand scheme of things, there are a couple of things wrong with it. I would first point out that the D-Backs used their most talented reliever, Jose Valverde, as their closer last year. Also, while I agree that a team's relievers should be perfectly leveraged, with the best reliever being used in the highest-leverage situations, the fact is that the Diamondbacks do use the traditional closer system. It is also a fact that closers, league-wide, do end up pitching in the highest-leverage situations. They aren't leveraged as well as they could be if they weren't restricted to the ninth inning, but they are still involved in higher-leverage situations than any of a team's other relievers. Look at the leaders in gmLI from 2007. 2007 Top 15 in gmLI Name Team gmLI Trevor Hoffman Padres 2.02 Jose Valverde Diamondbacks 1.96 Joe Borowski Indians 1.94 Jeremy Accardo Blue Jays 1.86 Mike MacDougal White Sox 1.82 Francisco Cordero Brewers 1.80 Brad Hennessey Giants 1.80 Rafael Betancourt Indians 1.78 Takashi Saito Dodgers 1.77 J.J. Putz Mariners 1.76 Francisco Rodriguez Angels 1.76 Jonathan Papelbon Red Sox 1.75 Chad Bradford Orioles 1.74 Todd Jones Tigers 1.74 David Weathers Reds 1.72 Only three players on this list weren't closers last year. One was Rafael Betancourt, who doesn't really count because he was used in lower-leverage situations than his team's closer, Joe Borowski. The Indians just had a lot of high-leverage situations to go around. The other two are Mike MacDougal and Chad Bradford. While not an exact science, I think it's pretty clear that while closers aren't leveraged as well as they could be, they are indeed used in the highest-leverage situations. Maybe this is coincidental, but Lyon was second on the Diamonbacks in gmLI last year at 1.44 (ahead of Pena). In a move that surprised many, he was chosen as the closer above Pena after Valverde was traded. Guess who is second on the team in gmLI so far in 2008? Yup. Qualls. This off-season, Lenny Melnick of Melnick & Greco Fantasy Sports said on several occasions—before the decision was made—that he was hearing Lyon would win the job because the D-Backs wanted to the flexibility of allowing Pena to throw more than one inning. If this is the case, wouldn't it make sense to pass him up again, this time for the more talented Qualls? It's true that Pena hasn't thrown more than one inning in an appearance yet this year, but when the guy is being roughed up like he has, wouldn't that make the team a little hesitant to do so? Maybe they're just waiting for him to get it together. Also, and this is probably just coincidental as well, Valverde was used in the second highest-leverage situations of any reliever in baseball last year. Being a progressive organization but still going with a traditional closer, maybe the D-Backs make a concerted effort to use their closer in more high-leverage situations than other teams do. If this is the case, it would seemingly make it more likely that they would choose Qualls, who is their best reliever now that Valverde is gone. Of course, that then begs the question of why he didn't get the job to begin with. While this all is certainly is favorable for Qualls, leverage index isn't the be all, end all. If you look at Atlanta, Manny Acosta had a better leverage index than Peter Moylan, but Moylan got the closing gig over him. If we look at the point in games that Pena and Qualls are being used, we see that Pena has been used almost exclusively in the eighth or ninth inning, having pitched in the seventh just once in 11 games. Qualls has pitched in the eighth or later eight out of 13 times (not bad, but not as often as Pena), but two of those times he actually entered in the seventh and then stayed on into the eighth for at least one batter. Qualls, however, was used over Pena on April 6 in a save situation after Brandon Lyon was used in the eighthh inning. Might not signify anything, but it certainly isn't a good sign for Pena. Final breakdownReasons for Qualls: 1) Better skills 2) 0.00 ERA compared to 5.56 for Pena 3) Used in higher-leverage situations 4) Team might prefer Pena as a setup man Reasons for Pena: 1) Was the only other candidate in the preseason 2) Currently the primary eighth-inning guy I don't have access to Bob Melvin's brain and I don't have all the answers, and it really could be either of these guys, but if I'm speculating on one for my fantasy team, I'm probably going with Qualls. Some will say Pena simply because he was the other candidate during the preseason, but consider this theory: After Pena posted a 3.27 ERA last year and Lyon posted a 2.68 ERA, it might have come across as disrespectful to these guys to throw Qualls into the mix before he threw a single inning as a Diamondback. Now that the season has started and Pena has a 5.56 ERA, it would be much easier to say, "Look, you're struggling right now. Chad Qualls hasn't let in a run yet and we really like you in the eighth-inning role. We're going to use him as the closer." Just some food for thought. Also, even if it is Pena, there's no guarantee he would keep the job. His skills aren't fantastic for a closer. Saves are saves, though, and if you think Pena will be chosen instead of Qualls, he is worth the speculative pickup. Concluding thoughtsI had originally intended this article to talk about the situations for several teams, but with everything there was to say about the Diamondbacks, I think I'll spread them out. Look for more in the coming days. Also, if you have your own opinions or theories about the D-Backs' closer situation, please feel free to leave some comments or e-mail me. Posted by Derek Carty at 2:50pm (0) Comments Saturday, May 03, 2008Waiver Wire: American League (Week 5)We've got a much more exciting American League this week and a lot of guys to cover, so let's get started. American LeagueNick Adenhart | LAA | SP: Adenhart has been getting some hype, but I just don't see it. Why is a guy who had a 6.82 K/9 and 3.82 BB/9 in 153 Double-A innings last year expected to be a good contributor right now? It's not even like Max Scherzer where his 2007 peripherals were decent and he dominated Triple-A to start this year. He had a 5.52 K/9 and 4.35 BB/9 in Triple-A, for those wondering. He did have a 50 percent ground ball rate last year, but that's not going to make up for his other shortcomings. He should struggle if he remains in the majors. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Garrett Olson | BAL | SP: Less hype than Adenhart, but he's a much better bet for success. He struggled in the majors in limited innings last year, but he had an 8.44 K/9 and 2.74 BB/9 with a 44 percent ground ball rate in Triple-A. He had a nice-looking first start and could stick in the rotation until Adam Loewen returns, which might not be for a while. Even theb, Olson would deserve to stay on in place of Steve Trachsel or the next guy we'll talk about. Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues. Brian Burres | BAL | SP - Burres' current 2.87 ERA is being aided by a lucky .265 BABIP, 79 percent LOB rate, and 6.5 percent HR/FB. His peripherals are bad, though, and they weren't much better last year. Burres pitched in relief in 20 of 37 games last year and posted a 7.14 K/9 and 4.91 BB/9 with a 38 percent ground ball rate. His luck will run out and those who pick him up will be disappointed. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP: Gaudin, like Burres, is getting lucky, but he is also being helped by improved control (2.40 BB/9). His career walk rate is 4.35, so there's a pretty good chance it will regress, rendering him useless in most mixed leagues. If you're in a deep league and want to stash someone, feel free. Just know that Gaudin has a lot of downside now and virtually no upside (maybe in the ground ball rate, but that's it). If he continues like this, an ERA in the low 4.00s is most likely. If he regresses, think high 4.00s. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Rich Harden | OAK | SP: Harden will make one more rehab start before joining the big club, so if you want him, you need to grab him now. He is a good bet to get injured again, but he could be effective while healthy. I'm not dropping a good healthy pitcher for him, but while healthy, here are the leagues he could be owned in. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Phil Hughes | NYY | SP: I was actually planning a write-up on Hughes before he got injured, so this will have to do for now. He didn't seem like himself at the end of last year (after returning from injury) or at the start of this year. Now that he's out until July with another injury, who knows what to expect coming back? If you have a DL spot, stash him. If not, I wouldn't blame you for dropping him in mixed leagues. Recommendation: Should be dropped in all but the deepest mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Wladimir Balentien | SEA | OF: Wladimir has some talent, but his value won't approach Jeff Clement's. Until last year, his contact rates ranged from 67 percent to 71 percent, but the 78 percent mark in Triple-A last year and the 82 percent mark in 63 at-bats this year show promise. He walks a lot and has a decent BABIP history, but an average above .250 or .260 might be too much to ask for (unless, of course, that contact rate stays around 80 percent). Given 500 at-bats, though, he could hit 20 home runs. He's hit seventh twice and eighth once so far, so RBIs and runs might not be especially easy to come by. There are likely better options in your league, although Baltentien does have a lot of potential and could be worth taking a chance on. Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues. Emil Brown | OAK | OF: Batting average is being driven by a 90 percent contact rate while his career rate is 79 percent. This could regress (as would his average), but his 113 plate appearances are approaching the 150 Pizza Cutter found as being meaningful. If his contact rate is real, Brown becomes more of a .270 hitter who should be good for a dozen or so home run production. He's currently hitting .417 with runners on and .480 with runners in scoring position. The RBIs will come down as those regress. Recommendation: Should be owned only in the deepest of mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Eric Hinske | TB | 1B/OF: Hinske, like Brown, is seeing his average driven by a higher than normal contact rate, and Hinske only has 90 plate appearances so far. His 20 percent HR/FB is also very high. Considering that HitTracker shows that his raw power hasn't changed at all, and Tropicana isn't especially conducive to where he hits the ball or to lefty hitters in general, the power numbers should drop off a bit. He does hit a lot of fly balls, though, and could hit 20 home runs (assuming 500 at-bats). Unless the new contact rate is for real, though, his average might not go much higher than .250. Not a great spot in the lineup, but he should pick up his fair share of RBIs. He does have to worry a little about Gabe Gross and Jonny Gomes once Cliff Floyd returns (plus Floyd himself), so don't be 100 percent committed to Hinske if you own him. Recommendation: Should be owned only in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Reggie Willits | LAA | OF: Willits was called up this week, and while he has some skills, he probably won't have much fantasy value now. He has speed and takes a lot of walks, but he has no power and it's yet to be seen if his .363 BABIP is sustainable at the major league level. Even if it's just .340, he would still hit over .300, but if the BABIP drops to .300 then he would only hit .270. There also isn't any room for him in the Anaheim outfield right now with Vladimir Guerrero, Torii Hunter, Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews Jr. around. He makes a decent speculative pick in deeper leagues given the shaky health of some of those guys, but not much more. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Scott Rolen | TOR | 3B: Just 23 at-bats into his season, you shouldn't be changing your expectations of Rolen. Toronto inflates righties' homers by 21 percent, but Rolen doesn't have a ton left. Still, he should be marginally useful while healthy, batting .285 or so in a decent lineup for runs and RBIs. Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues while healthy given that most good third basemen are in the NL. Billy Butler | KC | 1B/OF/UT: Why is Butler getting dropped? He's hitting .290 (as he should be expected to this year, if not higher) and has pretty good raw power (although he only has one homer so far). He's batting mostly sixth now, but he should still collect some RBIs. Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Franklin Gutierrez | CLE | OF: He's kind of an unspectacular type (at least in terms of his fantasy numbers), but he gets the job done. A .270 average with 15-20 homers and a handful of steals can be expected of Gutierrez. He still needs to worry a little about Jason Michaels or David Dellucci, but he'll probably get close to regular at-bats the rest of the year unless he really starts to slump. Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues. Jeff Clement | SEA | C/UT: I talked more in-depth about Clement in today's "Player Spotlight." The basic point was that if he is eligible at catcher in your league (or will be after five games there), he needs to be owned. Otherwise, it really goes on a case-by-case basis. If you have room to stash him and wait until he gains catcher eligibility in leagues that require more games, you could be handsomely rewarded. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | TEX | C/1B: A lot of people like Salty, but I think he's overrated. He's not getting regular playing time, is hitting relatively low in the order when he does, puts up below-average contact rates, and had a .270 BABIP in Double-A in 2006. He could hit 15 or so homers given 500 at-bats. By catcher standards he is okay, but he's really not great. Recommendation: Should not be owned in single-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in 14-team, two-catcher mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team AL-only single catcher leagues. Should be owned in all two-catcher AL-only leagues. Concluding thoughtsIf you have questions on anyone else, feel free to send me an e-mail. We'll look at the National League either tonight or tomorrow. Posted by Derek Carty at 10:10am Player spotlight: Jeff ClementI thought with the recent call-up of Jeff Clement, it would be a good idea to put a mini-"Player Spotlight" on him. Those of you looking for help at catcher, the cavalry may have just arrived. NumbersYEAR AGE LEVEL LEAGUE AB CR BABIP LD% BB% AB/HR AB/XBH HR/FB OF FB% 2005 21 A MDW 113 78% 0.366 13% 10% 19 10 22% 30% 2006 22 AAA PCL 245 78% 0.314 20% 6% 61 18 8% 26% 2007 23 AAA PCL 455 81% 0.303 19% 12% 23 8 18% 30% 2008 24 AAA PCL 78 85% 0.426 --- 22% 16 6 --- --- Clement absolutely tore apart Triple-A this year. It was his third time around and it was in a sample of just 78 at-bats, but they were 78 marvelous ones. Even before this year, he was putting up pretty good contact rates for a catcher and doing a good amount of walking. This plate discipline should help him while adjusting to the majors. He puts up decent fly ball rates, and his HR/FB rates are quite good, as are his AB/XBH. Perhaps the primary reason for concern is his 2006 season. This line looks out of place among the others in the power department. This worries me a little in that if Clement is the type of guy who takes a little longer to adjust to a level, he might struggle in the majors this year. We need to remember, though, that he was just 22 at the time and had less than 200 professional baseball at-bats at that point (11 in Low-A, 113 in Single-A, and 59 in Double-A). So what should we expect from Clement this year? Well, given an 80 percent contact rate, .300 BABIP, 30 percent outfield fly ball rate, and 15 percent HR/OF FB, Clement would hit .265 with 18 home runs in 500 at-bats. That should easily make him a top-10 catcher, and he certainly has the talent to do even better. Plus, he's been batting fifth. If that continues, he could have some nice RBI value as well. EligibilityHost Catcher eligible? ESPN No Yahoo! No FOX Yes CBS Yes Clement already has catcher eligibility in FOX and CBS leagues (or at least in the leagues I'm in, which I believe are standard setups). He needs five games to be eligible in Yahoo! and 10 (I believe, please correct me if I'm wrong) in ESPN. Given the lackluster performances of Kenji Johjima, Jose Vidro and Ben Broussard this year, Clement should find plenty of playing time. (Johjima was just re-signed long-term, though, so the Mariners won't give up on him easily.) If he starts off relatively well, he could find himself starting every day, either as the DH (spelling Johjima on days off) or splitting time among three positions. What Yahoo! and ESPN leaguers are first concerned with, though, is his playing time as a catcher. He has already played in two games at catcher, as Johjima took a break. Johjima won't play every day, being a catcher, and the Mariners have already shown the willingness to play Clement as his backup. Playing on Kenji's days off should give Clement enough games to claim eligibility in Yahoo! leagues within maybe 10-14 days. ESPN leaguers (assuming the requirement is indeed 10 games), well, it really depends on your individual league and team's situation whether you should pick him up. Is he worth a No. 1 waiver claim? Depending on your current catcher situation, I would probably lean toward "yes." In other leagues where the eligibility limit is five games or where he is already eligible, he needs to be owned. If you have questions on which catchers he should be owned over, feel free to send me an e-mail. Posted by Derek Carty at 10:11am Sunday, May 04, 2008Waiver Wire: National League (Week 5)It usually seems like the American League is the boring league as far as pickups go. Not this week. Sorry NL-only leaguers! National LeagueRich Hill | CHC | SP - Rich Hill was sent down to the minors after getting off to a rough start to the year. I really would like to take a look at his Pitch f/x data to see if his pitches really were as flat as some describe or if his release point was off as he claimed. Maybe we'll do that this week. Either way, he only had pitched 17 innings and was excellent last year. If his owner drops him, he might be worth stashing, although with the Cubs and Lou Piniella, we really don't know when he'll be back. Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues. Jon Lieber | CHC | SP - Lieber will replace Hill, but he really isn't that good. He has good control, but won't post higher than a league average strikeout rate (will likely be a decent bit lower than that) and only has an average ground ball rate. Will help in NL-only leagues, but that's all. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Johnny Cueto | CIN | SP - Not gonna spend much time here. 8.49 K/9 and 1.54 BB/9 are accompanied by a 5.40 ERA and 52% LOB%. The LOB% is in turn accompanied by awful peripherals with runners on base, suggesting either a small sample size or trouble adjusting to the majors while pitching from the stretch. Maybe a look with Pitch f/x one day soon will shed some light on this. Regardless, he needs to be owned; I don't think anyone (especially someone with peripherals like that) deserves a 52% LOB%. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. John Lannan | WAS | SP - There are some things to like about Lannan, but not enough to warrant all the pickups he's receiving. He gets a lot of ground balls, but his 6.42 K/9 is higher than it was at any level in the minors last year, and that includes 50.2 innings in High-A ball. His 4.28 BB/9 is also bad, although it was better in the minors. Not a guy you should be rushing to get. I would probably take Lieber over him. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Aaron Cook | COL | SP - Cook is the same pitcher he's always been, so all of these pickups are unwarranted. His K/9 is up a little bit, but 4.39 isn't really anything to cheer for. He gets a lot of ground balls, which play well in Coors, but he is still playing in Coors with a below-average strikeout rate and a non-elite walk rate. ERA is being affected by a .251 BABIP and 6% HR/FB. Recommendation - Should be not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Phil Dumatrait | PIT | SP - A one-time prospect for the Red Sox, Dumatrait never fullfilled his promise. He's starting in Pittsburgh now that Matt Morris has been released, but he really isn't a good pickup. In 212.2 Triple-A innings between 2006 and 2007, Dumatrait posted pedestrian 5.29 K/9 and 3.98 BB/9 rates. Pass. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team NL-only leagues. Yovani Gallardo | MIL | SP - Gallardo tore his ACL and will likely be out for the year. Don't drop him until the results of his tests are official and it is announced he'll undergo surgery, but when it is, feel free to drop him. Recommendation - Should be dropped in all redraft leagues once he is declared out for the year. Dave Bush | MIL | SP - Dave Bush was a big-time sleeper for 2007 but disappointed his owners. He was sent to the minors recently, but with Gallardo out has been called back up. He still has decent skills, though he may never get back to his 2006 level when it appeared he was primed for a breakout. The recommendation given indicates leagues he deserves to be owned in, but there's a decent chance there are better guys also available on your waiver wire. Recommendation - Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Jair Jurrjens | ATL | SP - Jurrjens really should be in the minors another year. He isn't though, so he has some fantasy value. His 6.57 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9 are close to what we could expect given his stats from last year, but that doesn't make him deserving of being owned in nearly half of ESPN leagues. He gets ground balls and has potential, but I don't see him having too much upside this year. Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 8-team NL-only leagues. Tom Glavine | ATL | SP - Stop picking up Tom Glavine! Do you think he suddenly turned 42 and decided he was going to start pitching like he when he was 32 again? No, his 2.60 ERA is simply a function of an 86% LOB%. He's no longer a good pitcher. Recommendation - Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep NL-only leagues. Paul Maholm | PIT | SP - Maholm is getting lucky, but he's a pretty good pitcher. His K/9 is up to 6.23 and his BB/9 is under 3.00 again. He is also gets over 50% ground balls, so he is a guy worth a pickup. Might not have a ton of upside and might not get quite as many wins as a guy with his skills playing for a good team, but he's a solid pitcher. Recommendation - Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Ian Snell | PIT | SP - In a competitive league, Snell is still owned. If you're league is a little less so, he's worth a pickup. His peripherals are down and his .349 BABIP and 68% LOB% are hurting him, but he's still a good candidate to bounce back and have a good year. Hold. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Ryan Doumit | PIT | C - Playing over his head a bit, but certainly a worthwhile catcher to own. His contact rate and BABIP are not in line with his career numbers, though if the contact rate remains this high he definitely gets a boost. His raw power isn't much changed over last year, but it's still pretty good and he hits a pretty good percentage of fly balls. A .280-.285 average with 20-25 homers over 500 at-bats is completely within reason. He's also hitting cleanup, so he should get lots of RBIs. Excellent pickup as a catcher if he's still available. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Carlos Delgado | NYM | 1B - For all the negative things being said about Carlos Delgado, he isn't that bad. His HitTracker profile shows that his raw power is still relatively in tact. He was actually probably a little unlucky in that department last year. His fly balls are down a little bit, but that could just be a small sample size thing as he isn't even half-way to the point where fly ball rate becomes meaningful. Even if it stays where it is, he could hit .270 with 23 homers. The current .258 batting average is being hurt by his unlucky .225 BABIP. If he can manage to secure the #5 spot in the rotation, he'll get a bunch of RBIs, although he'd get a good amount hitting #6 too. If Moises Alou gets hurt again, the #5 spot should go to him by default. Recommendation - Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues. Luis Gonzalez | FLA | OF - Gonzalez will fill in for Josh Willingham, but he's not a great play. Still has a little power left. Over 500 at-bats, he could hit 17 homers with a .265 batting average. If that sounds appealing over the next couple weeks, feel free to pick him up. Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team NL-only leagues. Jayson Werth | PHI | OF - Werth is showing a different type of power this year than he did last year. Check out his HitTracker profile for 2008 and 2007. Hitting it to straight-away center and farther than he did last year. Citizens Bank isn't the best park for hitting straight-away homers, but Werth will be interesting to watch, especially considering his BABIP is lower than it has been in his career. He'll still be just 29 at the end of the month, so it's possible he's made some adjustments. Some of his numbers have really been all over the board in his career, but a .275-.280 average with 20 homers in 500 at-bats really wouldn't be out of the question. He'll also collect some steals and will score runs at the top of the lineup. Risky, but might be worth it. Recommendation - Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Fred Lewis | SF | OF - Lewis isn't showing additional raw power this year, so don't flock to him for that reason. His .405 BABIP is also far too high. Overall, Lewis is decent, but think more along the lines of a .270 average with maybe 10 homers or so. He is running more this year (21 percent up from 11 percent last year) and could help with steals and runs (batting mostly leadoff), but he's not someone to go crazy over. Recommendation - Should be only be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team NL-only leagues. Andy LaRoche | LAD | 3B - He's been activated from the DL but was also demoted, giving Blake Dewitt the job. Dewitt, though, is currently sporting a higher walk rate and BABIP than he had at any level of the minors in his career. He isn't showing much power or speed either, so there's a good chance LaRoche will have the job in the near future. He'll also have Nomar Garciaparra to worry about once he gets healthy himself, but LaRoche is the most talented of the three by far. If you have room to stash him, it might be worth it. Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Posted by Derek Carty at 5:44pm Monday, May 05, 2008The save speculator: Milwaukee BrewersEric Gagne blew his fifth save of the year Sunday night, leading to speculation that he might be removed from the closer's role. First I'll give a brief overview of what makes a good fantasy closer—which will appear in each edition of the "Save Speculator"—and then we'll examine the Brewers' situation more closely. What makes a valuable fantasy closerTwo things that make a valuable fantasy closer. The first is talent and the second is opportunity. A pitcher needs both to be an effective fantasy closer. If a closer is talented, like Rafael Soriano early last year, but doesn't have the opportunity, he won't pick up many saves. If a closer has the opportunity, like Bob Wickman last year, but doesn't have the talent, he is likely to lose the job. This series of articles will examine situations around the leagues, identify where there is a closer who doesn't possess the talent to keep his job, then assess which of the team's other relievers might replace him. Milwaukee BrewersEric Gagne was once the top closer in baseball, but has been plagued by injuries in recent years. He looked very strong in the first-half of 2007 for the Rangers, but he seemed to fall apart after being traded to the Red Sox. This offseason, the Milwaukee Brewers signed him to a one-year, $10 million contract. He is currently sporting a 6.14 ERA, nine saves and five blown saves. The Brew Crew did, however, lose only two of the games in which he blew a save (one of which was Sunday). The Brewers are primed to contend this year, though, and they can't afford their ninth inning guy putting the game in jeopardy. So what will they do? It's possible Gagne has seen his last save opportunity for the Brewers, although the guys vying to replace him aren't exactly awe-inspiring. Candidates: 1) David Riske 2) Salomon Torres 3) Guillermo Mota Skills2008 Pitcher IP K/9 BB/9 GB% xFIP ERA Gagne 13.2 11.20 4.61 34% 3.60 5.27 Torres 19.1 7.45 3.72 63% 3.71 3.26 Mota 14 10.93 6.43 47% 4.31 2.57 Riske 16.1 5.51 4.41 33% 4.87 5.51 2007 Pitcher IP K/9 BB/9 GB% xFIP Gagne 52 8.83 3.63 39% 4.21 Torres 52.2 7.69 2.91 49% 4.21 Mota 59.1 7.13 2.73 44% 4.32 Riske 69.2 6.72 3.49 41% 4.56 2006 Pitcher IP K/9 BB/9 GB% xFIP Gagne 2 --- --- --- --- Torres 93.1 6.94 3.66 55% 4.07 Mota 55.2 7.44 3.88 34% 3.36 Riske 44 5.73 3.48 36% 5.13 2008 Marcels Pitcher IP K/9 BB/9 GB% Gagne --- 7.76 3.53 --- Torres --- 6.64 3.39 --- Mota --- 7.05 3.45 --- Riske --- 6.47 3.38 --- Note: I realize this might not be the most easily readable format for this, but when we need to look at multiple years for several players, I'm not sure how best to do it. If you have suggestions for future editions, they're more than welcome. Gagne was great until 2005, but didn't pitch much in 2006 and was only decent in 2007. He's actually been pretty good so far in 2008, but his 31 percent HR/FB rate is making him look really bad. Nothing is more detrimental to a closer's job security than the long ball. It is easily observable and does immediate, irreparable damage. Gagne has given up four already this year. Combine that with a below-average walk rate, and that can cause some serious damage. If Gagne is removed, who fills in? Well, Marcels saw very little distinguishable difference among his potential replacements coming into the year. Torres gets the edge given his superior career ground ball rates. If we look at the actual data from the last couple of years, we see that Riske appears to be clearly inferior. He and Derrick Turnbow (who has since been designated for assignment and subsequently sent to the minors) were originally the backup plan to Gagne, but when your ERA matches your K/9, there's a good chance you're doing something wrong. Riske really hasn't been a good pitcher since 2003 or 2004, and he isn't looking good so far this year. Mota and Torres have quite similar peripherals. Above-average strikeouts, so-so control. Torres gets the edge, though, because of his 52 percent ground ball rate since 2002. Mota's is just 42 percent. OpportunityMost people seem to think Torres would get the job should Gagne get removed, but Leverage Index would argue with them. Leverage Index Pitcher gmLI pLI Mota 1.87 2.18 Torres 1.22 1.36 Riske 1.03 1.21 Mota leads here by a substantial margin in both gmLI and pLI. That the Brewers trust him more than the other guys says something. They obviously don't want somebody they don't trust pitching the ninth inning, especially with the way Gagne has been so far. One interesting thing about this situation is that all three of these guys have closed before. I don't think this will matter too much to the Brewers, but let's check out their records anyway. Save conversions Pitcher SVO SV BS SV% Torres 45 30 15 67% Riske 38 21 17 55% Mota 19 7 12 37% None were very good, which further leads me to believe that this won't have much of an impact on the Brewers' decision (again, should one actually have to be made). That Mota was just 37 percent successful could keep him out of the role, but the Brewers are a pretty progressive organization. Hopefully they see the small sample size there and don't buy too deep into the notion that the ninth inning is so pressure-filled that some guys simply can't do it. I mean, they're putting Mota in very high-leverage situations now and he's doing fine, so hopefully they'd be all right with him closing. Let's check out where in games each of these guys is being used. We know that Mota is being used in the highest-leverage situations, but is he also being used late in the game? The following table shows the breakdown of the number of times each of these pitchers entered the game in a particular inning. Innings breakdown Pitcher 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 8th+ Average Mota 0 0 0 10 0 2 12 8.3 Torres 2 2 7 0 1 2 3 7.1 Riske 1 5 3 4 0 1 5 7.0 Note: 8th+ is the numbers of times the pitcher entered the game in the 8th inning or later. We can see that Mota clearly has the advantage here. He is being used most often late in the game (never earlier than the eighth inning) in addition to pitching the highest-leverage innings. These two things will sometimes coincide, but not always. Just look at the Diamondbacks' situation from last time. Torres has actually entered in the eighth inning or later just three times this year, but did enter in the seventh and stay on into the eighth four times, and one time he pitched from the seventh into the ninth. Riske is being used all over the place, and has entered in the eighth inning or later only once over the past two weeks. He also has been yanked in the middle of an inning five times this year, showing what little confidence the team has in him to work out of a jam. Finally, let's check out how often these guys are being used for more than one inning. Sometimes a team will forgo the most talented pitcher because the manager prefers to use him for multiple innings instead of pigeon-holing him in the ninth. Multi-inning usage Pitcher 1+ 2+ 3+ Mota 3 2 0 Riske 5 3 0 Torres 7 5 1 Another reason to like Mota. He is used for multiple innings the least of these three and would make more sense pitching just one inning in the ninth. While I think you've likely already eliminated Riske in your mind, I wanted to note that it's possible his numbers here would have been higher had he been performing better this year. Final breakdownReasons for Mota: 1) Highest Leverage Index 2) Used late in the game more often than the other two 3) Used for multiple innings the least often 4) Comparable skills to Torres and better skills than Riske 5) Lowest ERA of the group Reasons for Torres: 1) Best skills (though not by much compared to Mota) 2) Given Gagne's homer troubles, Torres' low fly ball rates might look appealing 3) Most prior success closing games among the three candidates (although he wasn't that good) Reasons for Riske: 1) Was considered Gagne's primary insurance early in the season (so was Turnbow, though) Verdict: I picked up both Mota and Torres in one of my leagues tonight. If you have the bench space to do it (I placed John Smoltz, Yovani Gallardo, and Hank Blalock on the DL this week, so I did), it might be a good idea in case Gagne is removed over the next couple of days. If he lasts longer than that, you can drop one. If you have room for only one to begin with, I would probably go with Mota. I picked him up in another couple of leagues tonight. While a lot of people will tell you Torres is the guy to own, Mota seems to make a lot more sense to me given all that we looked at today. Please keep in mind, though, that Gagne is not a lock to lose his job. He would probably be more successful than any of these guys given the chance to close for the rest of the season. The name of this series of articles is the "saves speculator." In competitive leagues, we often need to pick up a closer before he actually inherits the job. While it's no lock that one of these guys will be closing soon, picking one up is probably one of the better percentage plays you could make at this time. Also, please realize that even if one of these guys takes the job, there is no guarantee he will close all year. None really has the skills to be a good closer. I do believe in the saying "saves are saves," though, so if one of them does start closing, that guy would absolutely be worth owning. Just don't count on him to close all year because the likelihood of that isn't great, whoever it ends up being. Concluding thoughtsIf you have any thoughts on this matter, feel free to either comment or send me an e-mail. Posted by Derek Carty at 5:55pm Thursday, May 08, 2008Exploiting your league’s rulesI wanted to relay a story about a series of moves I made over the past two weeks in one of my favorite leagues. My home league, which I discussed last year, has become significantly more competitive this year with the addition of a few new owners and some radical rule changes. It is now a keeper league with a really cool contract system, plus a minor league system with rules governing arbitration. It's a lot of fun. By knowing all the rules of my league, I was able to exploit them to carry myself just a little bit closer to my goal: winning the league several times over. The Liriano situationI won Francisco Liriano at auction for $14 which was, at the time, a pretty decent bargain in my estimation. Looking at it now, maybe not so much. The rules state that auctioned players receive two-year contracts at the price at which they were won. During the inaugural year of the league, though, all contracts are just one year long. If an owner wishes to extend a player beyond one year, he must pay an additional $5 per year, each year. So for Liriano, to keep him next year, I would have had to pay $19. To keep him for the next two years, it would have cost $24 for each. This wasn't a scenario I was drooling over to begin with, and certainly not after his awful start to 2008. Luckily, I was able to exploit my league's rules to improve my potential future equity on Liriano. The rules also state that a player picked up through the in-season FAAB process—assuming the owner decides to keep said player the following season—will have a contract of $7 the following year. After that, he may be extended per the usual $5 per year, each year rule. The first moveKnowing that it would be difficult to keep Liriano at $19 or $24 unless he turned in a monster second-half and knowing that I had a dominant pitching staff to fall back on should something go terribly wrong (which they didn't in regard to Liriano, but I did lose Yovani Gallardo and John Smoltz a little later... ugh), I spent the week spreading anti-Liriano propaganda (context: this was the week Liriano was sent to the minors, so it was pretty well disguised). I would talk to owners about how I wasted $14 on him and how he looked abysmal to start the year. I'd talk about how the Tommy John surgery clearly didn't work and how he got sent to the minors. At the end of the week, when our transaction deadline arrived, I dropped him. The second moveThe following week, I didn't say a word to anyone about Liriano unless they brought it up (they didn't) so as not to draw attention to him. At the end-of-week transaction deadline, I placed a $12 bid for Liriano and won him back. Yes, $12 seems high, but the rules also state that the winning owner need only pay the second highest bid plus $1. With how bad Liriano had struggled, I figured that the chances of me actually having to pay $12 were slim, but if it did happen, it wouldn't be the end of the world. Since all of the top minor leaguers are already owned in our minor league systems and since the league uses players from both the American and National League (no mid-season cross-overs), there really wasn't anybody I needed to save a good chunk of money for (not that I advocate spending the majority of your FAAB budget on a single player most of the time anyway). Nobody else bid, and I ended up getting Liriano back for $1. By making this move, I can now keep Liriano next year for $7 as opposed to $19. It was timed perfectly, at the point when Liriano's value could conceivably be the lowest it will be all year. If he has a good second half, I have a great keeper. If not, I cut bait on him. All it will have cost me is $1 FAAB and a roster spot, the price of which I actually managed to minimize with a corresponding move. The third move—and a separate but equally good move to capitalize on the rulesHere's a little background on the corresponding move, which further shows the importance of paying careful attention to your league's rules. In our minor league draft, all players under contract with a major league team as of Opening Day who do not exceed the eligibility requirements (200 plate appearances for hitters, 50 innings for pitchers) may be drafted. In the second-to-last round of the minor league draft, I grabbed Hiroki Kuroda, who likely went overlooked because he came from Japan and wasn't really a "minor leaguer." I figured this would be a minimal investment, but one that could pay big dividends. I don't see Kuroda as a high-upside guy, but players drafted in the minor league phase receive three-year contracts at $0 for each year. So I could conceivably fill one of my pitcher spots with a $0 Kuroda for three years since he began 2008 in the majors. Back to the Liriano talk. While he exceeds the 50 inning requirement for minor league eligibility, a team may demote a player who does not meet this requirement if his real-life team demotes him. So after re-signing Liriano, I demoted him to the minors and called up Kuroda to make room. Not only does this give me the flexibility of stashing Liriano, it also accomplishes something else for me. Added benefits I consideredI've recently been in trade talks in which Kuroda's name has come up. By promoting him to my major league squad, his trade value gets an instant boost. Most people in the league consider me a pretty strong competitor (I know I said this isn't the best thing, but it's kind of unavoidable in my position), so when I call Kuroda up from the minors, it is perceived as a reflection of my approval of Kuroda. From my own trading experiences, I know that the minute someone comes to me and says, "What will it take for Felix Hernandez?" or "I want Adam Dunn," I have them exactly where I want them. I know that they like these players, and that player's trade value immediately increases in my mind. Promoting Kuroda deals with essentially the same concept. By me saying, "Hiroki Kuroda is good enough for my big league team," his trade value increases at least a little to anyone paying attention. This, combined with his excellent contract status in our league and his current 3.95 ERA, should make him a pretty valuable commodity. Concluding thoughtsThe lesson here is to always be aware of your league's rules and to always be looking for ways to exploit them to your advantage. In competitive leagues, we need to be looking for every advantage we can get. Whether this move works out isn't the point. Whether you think Liriano will be awful the rest of the year doesn't matter. This move was made with nigh zero risk. I gave up almost nothing to make this move, and the potential future profits are surely greater than that. Even if you can make a move in this vein on a smaller scale or with a lesser player or using different rules, the concept remains the same. If it doesn't cost you much but the potential for future reward is large in relation, do it. Posted by Derek Carty at 11:00am Saturday, May 10, 2008Waiver Wire: American League (Week 6)Before we get started, I wanted to clarify something I might not have explained thoroughly enough yet. When talking about a player's production, I'll often say something to the effect of "he could hit .270 with 20 home runs and 20 steals given 500 at-bats." This is not my way of saying that I think this player will receive 500 at-bats going forward. I might say this about a platoon player who may get only 200. I do this because it is a fool's errand to try to predict an exact number of at-bats that a player will receive. Plus, it would be changing every week and there would be little week-to-week consistency in this regard. Instead, I give a baseline number (usually 500 at-bats or 550 or 600 plate appearances) that can be used for comparative purposes. I think this gives an indication of a player's skills that can be compared to other players on the list each week. Feel free to scale these numbers to the number of actual at-bats or plate appearances you think a player will get. Around midseason, I might switch up the traditional baseline to 250 at-bats or something like that, so at least we're in the ballpark of the number of at-bats an average starter might receive. That being said, let's look at this week's American League pickups! American LeagueVicente Padilla | TEX | SP: The 5.86 K/9 and 3.20 BB/9 make Padilla an automatic "no" for most leagues. His ERA is being inflated by an unsustainable 80 percent LOB rate. Stay far away. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Scott Kazmir | TB | SP: This one should be pretty obvious, but Kazmir is No. 2 on CBS' "Most Added Players" list. If he's available in your league, get him. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Gavin Floyd | CHW | SP: Floyd took a no-hitter into the ninth this week, but I still won't be buying. He's a slight fly ball pitcher in a hitters' park and is walking (4.08 per nine) almost as many batters as he is striking out (4.31 per nine). Yeah, he's doing good with not allowing hits, but do you honestly think he—or anyone else for that matter—can sustain a .147 BABIP? The answer is a resounding "no." Throw in a lucky 6.3 percent HR/FB for good measure. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Garrett Olson | BAL | SP: I talked about Olson last week, and now he's getting picked up in droves. My opinion remains the same. Good pitcher, has the upside to potentially have some value in shallower leagues than those listed. Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest AL-only leagues. Sidney Ponson | TEX | SP: Ponson has poor skills and probably will likely be sent down once Jason Jennings and Luis Mendoza get healthy. Not a guy you want to buy into, although his current 1.77 BB/9 and 58 percent ground ball rate are good. He still strikes out very few batters and has never shown this kind of control before (not even in Triple-A to start the year), so it's kind of ridiculous to assume he'll continue after three starts. Stay away. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues, for now. Aaron Laffey | CLE | SP: Laffey will stay on until Jake Westbrook returns from injury and might be worth a pickup in some leagues. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher with good control and could approach a league-average strikeout rate. He won't dominate, but he'll be a solid pitcher on a good offensive team, even if the Indians aren't exactly playing like one now. Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in eight-team and owned in 10-team AL-only leagues, for now. Jon Lester | BOS | SP: On a different team, Lester isn't considered as good a pitcher as he currently is. His skills just aren't there. Career 40 percent ground ball rate to go with a 5.32 K/9 and 5.12 BB/9 this year. No thank you. He'll get some wins, but it won't be pretty. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Daniel Cabrera | BAL | SP: Cabrera loves to tempt fantasy owners. He'll look great one start and awful the next. He has four starts thus far with two or fewer walks, although his overall BB/9 is 4.05. His strikeout rate is also severely depressed this year at 5.74, and his 226 batters faced has surpassed the mark set by Pizza Cutter for statistical significance. This could come back up, but his ERA is currently being kept down by a .226 BABIP and 79 percent LOB rate. Some have suggested playing the matchups with him, but I wouldn't; he really is just too unpredictable. If you pick him up, just trot him out there each time he's on the mound and hope for the best. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Kevin Slowey | MIN | SP: Back from the DL, Slowey is a solid pickup. He has fantastic control and should post a roughly league average strikeout rate (though he might have the potential to do a bit better), so he's definitely worth owning if he's himself again. Only owned in 0.6 percent of ESPN leagues, so in deeper leagues he might actually be the best option available right now. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Kei Igawa | NYY | SP: Igawa is such an interesting guy. He struggled a bit in the majors last year (namely with his control, though his strikeout rate wasn't fantastic and his 14 percent HR/FB was unlucky) but excelled at Triple-A when he was demoted: 9.08 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9. His numbers were very similar to start 2008. Now he's been called up to the majors, and expectations seem to be pretty low. He is a fly ball pitcher, but I think he could be better than most give him credit for. Definitely worth speculating on. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues, for now. Darrell Rasner | NYY | SP: Probably not as good a pickup as Igawa, though he does seem to be getting more adds. I think Igawa left a lot of people with a bad taste in their mouths last year. Rasner didn't pitch much last year and was utterly ineffective when he did, but a 7.21 K/9 and 1.69 BB/9 in 58.2 Triple-A innings in 2006 show that he has promise. He put up nearly identical numbers in 31 Triple-A innings to start 2008. He is more of a ground ball pitcher than fly baller and could be mildly effective, if uninteresting. Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in eight-team and owned in 10-team AL-only leagues, for now. Mike Napoli | TEX | C - We've discussed Napoli before, but his ownership in ESPN leagues is still just 36.6 percent and he's seeing some adds this week. He won't hit for a high batting average, but not a lot of catchers do, and he has great power to make up for it. Jeff Mathis is getting a little annoying, but Napoli has the skills to be a very good fantasy catcher. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Marco Scutaro | TOR | IF: With David Eckstein and John McDonald on the disabled list, Scutaro becomes the starting shortstop for the next couple of weeks. He's batting ninth, but he could hit .265 with just a little bit of power. Playing every day, in and of itself, gives him some value in AL-only leagues. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Ben Francisco | CLE | OF: With Jason Michaels gone, Francisco only needs to worry about David Dellucci and Franklin Gutierrez for playing time. He'll likely split time with Dellucci. Francisco isn't particularly great at anything, but he is good at a lot of things. He puts up pretty good contact rates (83 percent and 86 percent in Triple-A in 2006 and 2007, though 73 percent in 92 at-bats this year) and walks a decent bit (8 percent and 9 percent). His Triple-A BABIPs have been both great (.361 in 2007) and mediocre (.297 in 2006) though he hits a good portion of line drives (20 percent and 22 percent). He has decent power, although perhaps his best trait is his speed. He has an overall Triple-A steals success rate of 79 percent and an attempt rate of 23 percent. In the majors, at least initially, expect maybe a .260-.265 batting average (though with the potential for much better) with 12 homers and 20 steals (assuming a baseline of 550 plate appearances). Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues. Nick Swisher | CHW | OF: Swisher should not be getting dropped. The majority of his skills appear to be intact, and his .247 BABIP should improve. His fly ball rate (39 percent) is down from the previous two years (46 and 48 percent) as his line drive rate has increased to 23 percent from 18 percent last year. It's possible that, batting leadoff on a team managed by Ozzie Guillen, this was done intentionally. That would not be good for Swisher's fantasy value, but this is just conjecture and not drop-worthy. Also, he hasn't hit leadoff in five games because of his struggles, so batting lower in the order he might not start hitting fly balls again. Watch this, but he still needs to be owned. Recommendation: Should be owned in all but the shallowest leagues. Evan Longoria | TB | 3B: Longoria is getting dropped too. He's not playing poorly, although his contact rate is pretty low (as I said could happen) and his batting average is suffering. His power looks good enough (38 percent fly ball rate, 14 percent HR/FB, decent HitTracker profile), though, and with his potential, 80 at-bats is not nearly enough to warrant dropping him if you thought he was worth picking up in the first place. If you want to pick him up in shallower leagues than I have listed, he definitely could have value this year. Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. David DeJesus | KC | OF: His skills are mostly the same as they have been, although HitTracker shows that his raw power is looking better than last year. 13 percent HR/FB is likely too high, but at age 28, it's possible he has improved this part of his game. Over 500 at-bats, DeJesus could hit a dozen or so homers, swipe a handful of bags, and hit around .290. Hitting mostly leadoff with his solid speed and walk rates should allow him to score a bunch of runs. Recommendation: Should be considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Posted by Derek Carty at 7:38am The save speculator: St. Louis CardinalsWe're gonna shorten this "Save speculator" since the decision actually came down while I was in the process of writing this article. Jason Isringhausen is being temporarily removed from the Cardinals' closer role, as one could have surmised from his quote last night (hat tip to Andy Behrens at Yahoo!): I’m just getting sick of embarrassing myself and letting my team down ... We should be five more wins in the win column in my mind, so we should be ahead in first place even more. But they can’t keep sending me out there when I’m pitching the way I’m pitching ... We’re going to have to figure out some kind of remedy. I’m sure that remedy will give me some time off and get somebody in there that can do a better job right now. Later, when Tony LaRussa was asked about the situation, he had this to say: Let me ask you something. Do you think it’d be fair to talk to you about it or talk among ourselves and talk to him first? You think you got any chance to get an answer to that question? The fact that LaRussa didn't deny that he was considering it and that he said he would "talk to him," in conjunction with the quote from Izzy himself led us to believe a change could be coming. Sure enough, today it was announced that Izzy is out. From LaRussa: He's not hurting, he's just pressing and lost his confidence. You go back to the drawing board a little bit on his delivery so he can locate better, and you give him some appearances and hopefully he gets people out and his confidence goes back up. From Izzy: It needed to be done. It's a mental break more than anything. SuccessorRyan Franklin should be added in all leagues immediately. It's a near certainty Isringhausen will not be back closing for the next couple of weeks, at minimum, and it could be a month before he returns. Franklin has been Izzy's setup man for quite a while now and had a 1.74 gmLI this year. His skills really aren't very good, and he's on the decline at 35-years old. Saves are saves, though. Here are his skills since the 2006, the year he transitioned into the bullpen: YEAR IP K/9 BB/9 GB% 2006 66 5.00 3.84 47% 2007 69 4.95 1.24 48 2008 19 4.00 3.00 33 Obviously not very good. His 2007 BB/9 was a career best and looks a little anomalous, although his 2006 BB/9 was also a career high. A K/9 in the mid-to-high 4.00s and a BB/9 in the high 2.00s is probably what should be expected going forward. His ground ball rate since 2002 is 38 percent, although many of those innings were as a starter, so it definitely could bounce back to 2006 and 2007 levels. Franklin isn't someone to drool over, but if you need saves (as I'm sure many of you do), pick him up. I grabbed him in three leagues this morning. Keep an eye onIf Izzy ends up being out for more than a couple of weeks and Franklin struggles (as there is a good possibility of), keep an eye on Kyle McClellan. He currently sports a 1.71 gmLI and has the skills to be an effective closer. YEAR LEVEL IP K/9 BB/9 GB% 2007 A+ 29 7.45 1.24 54% 2007 AA 30.2 8.80 1.76 58% 2008 MLB 18.2 7.71 1.45 53% Could be a successful long-term for the Cards if given the opportunity. Might be a good guy to grab in keeper leagues as well since Izzy's contract expires at the end of the year. Decent speculative add, although LaRussa could just as easily turn to a veteran like Randy Flores (1.82 gmLI) or Russ Springer (0.63 gmLI) if Franklin struggles. Posted by Derek Carty at 3:11pm The save speculator: Milwaukee Brewers revisitedAt the beginning of the week, we discussed the Brewers' closer situation after Eric Gagne blew his fifth save of the year. Saturday night, in his first appearance since then, he blew a tie game in the ninth as the Brewers lost 6-5. Let's first look at some of the postgame quotes to see if we can discern whether he'll keep the job. Tonight's quotesRead some of the things Gagne said after tonight's game and let me know what they remind you of. I don’t deserve that ninth inning right now. It’s pretty simple. Hmm... sounds a lot like Jason Isringhausen Friday night, doesn't it? It's obviously not the same situation and needs to be analyzed independently, but anytime the closer is down on himself like this, saying he doesn't deserve the job, there is a good chance he will be removed, if only temporarily. Just based on my own observations, it seems a lot of managers think the ninth inning adds extra pressure and can affect a pitcher's performance. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't, but I'd have to think Ned Yost doesn't want a guy finishing games who doesn't believe in himself. It should be noted that after the fifth blown save earlier in the week, Yost had this to say: This is a guy who has had a lot of success in this role. You allow him the time to work through it. Will he get on a roll? Yeah. He hasn't been on top of his game, and he’s still at the top of the league in saves. When he gets on his game, he's going to run off 15, 20, 25 of them in a row. You can't do it if you start panicking on the guy and start talking about not letting him close anymore. After his fifth blown save, Yost didn't say anything after the game and waited two days before issuing this statement. Tonight, he did have a quote after the game, and it was significantly different than his last one. I don’t sit here and make decisions five minutes after a tough loss. I’ll sit and think. You guys have known me long enough, I take a long time to analyze things and give everybody the benefit of the doubt and try to make the right decision. Also, after the last blown save, General Manager Doug Melvin had this to say: There's no magic number (of blown saves). If they are consecutive, that's when you get worried. ... You stay with a closer as long as you can. If a hitter slumps for six weeks, you stay with him. Closers go in slumps, too. You give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Well, tonight wasn't technically a consecutive blown save, but it's pretty much the same thing, right? So will he keep the job?My guess, right now, is no. A manager simply can't have a closer with a mentality like Gagne currently has and allow him to continue closing. Yost knows this, and I think after talking to Gagne, a change will be made. Even if he is given the job back in a couple of weeks, I think we'll see something soon about Gagne being removed. Prior conclusionsIf Gagne is removed, here are the things we discovered last time about his potential replacements: Reasons for Guillermo Mota: 1) Highest Leverage Index 2) Used late in the game more often than the other two 3) Used for multiple innings the least often 4) Comparable skills to Salomon Torres and better skills than David Riske 5) Lowest ERA of the group Reasons for Salomon Torres: 1) Best skills (though not by much compared to Mota) 2) Given Gagne's homer troubles, Torres' low fly ball rates might look appealing 3) Mota's high walk rate might push Torres past him (new addition to the list) 4) Most prior success closing games among the three candidates (although he wasn't that good) Reasons for David Riske: 1) Was considered Gagne's primary insurance early in the season (so was Turnbow, though) Concluding thoughtsIf you need saves and Mota or Torres are still available, or were dropped after things settled down during the week, now is the time to pick them up. My choice would be Mota first. Even if you only hold them for a day or two, it is a pretty good percentage play right now. Posted by Derek Carty at 10:20pm Sunday, May 11, 2008Waiver Wire: National League (Week 6)Happy Mothers Day to all you celebrating out there. Lots of National League closer action this weekend, but not a lot of great options emerging. Let's look at the guys worth picking up this week. National LeagueRyan Franklin | STL | CL: Franklin will close in St. Louis while Izzy gets himself right. He doesn't have the skills to hold down a job full-time, but over the next couple weeks, he has the potential to grab some saves for you. Needs to be owned, but watch for another "Save Speculator" regarding the Cardinals Monday or Tuesday. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Jason Isringhausen | STL | RP: He hasn't shown closer-level skills this year, but he probably will get the job back at some point. When he does, he'll be a closer, and they are always worth owning. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Salomon Torres | MIL | CL: Torres got the first crack at the closer job after Gagne was officially removed Sunday. He didn't do so well, and was replaced in favor of Brian Shouse before he even allowed a run. Shouse allowed one to score and then finished the inning by getting lefty Adam Kennedy to ground out. Manager Ned Yost said "we'll probably just mix and match." I'm still considering Guillermo Mota the favorite, but Torres can be owned as well if you need saves. Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues, for now. Guillermo Mota | MIL | CL: Given Torres' struggles and the fact that I originally considered him the front runner, Mota will probably get the next save opportunity. If he does well, he might get another, and from there could begin to entrench himself as the closer. When managers say that they will go to a committee, when one guy does well he tends to get the majority of the chances. Torres is worth owning too, though, because if Mota doesn't do well in his first appearance, it might come down to the "mix and match" thing because none of these guys really have the chops to be a closer at this point. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues, for now. Brian Shouse | MIL | CL: If Mota gets the next opportunity, does well, and starts to entrench himself as the closer (in the short-term, at least), Shouse would lose most of his value. But if Yost actually sticks with the "mix and match" strategy, Shouse might see some save opportunities a la Ryan Rowland-Smith when the ninth inning looks lefty-heavy. Recommendation: Can be owned in very deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Eric Gagne | MIL | RP: Given the mediocre skills of his potential replacements, I think Gagne will get the job back at some point. Yost seemed sympathetic to him, and this might be considered more of a "mental break" than anything else. I wouldn't drop him yet, although in shallow leagues, if you need the roster spot, it isn't the worst decision. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Homer Bailey | CIN | SP: With Matt Belisle struggling, it seems like only a matter of time before Bailey gets the call. Like last year, though, I'm less than optimistic about his chances for success. Last year, in 67.1 innings at Triple-A and eight innings at Advanced-A, he posted just a 7.88 K/9 and 4.42 BB/9. The walks have improved in 46.1 innings this year (2.33 BB/9), but the strikeouts are still low (7.58 K/9). I don't see how he will manage to keep his K/9 much above 7.00 in the majors, if that. If the newfound control isn't for real, he could be in trouble. He does have potential, though, so... Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues. Jo-Jo Reyes | ATL | SP: Reyes has shown the ability strike batters out in the minors, but he didn't in more than 50 major league innings last year (4.80 K/9). Plus, his control isn't very good. He is more of a groundball pitcher and has potential, so he is worth owning in some leagues. Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team NL-only leagues. Manny Parra | MIL | SP: Parra has struggled so far this year, but he's also been a little unlucky with a .359 BABIP. His 46 percent ground ball rate is good and his 7.16 K/9 is above-average and could easily improve as he adjusts to the majors. His 5.51 BB/9 is worrisome, though. I'm sticking with him in the 10-team mixed league I own him in (though it should be noted it's a keeper league, and I have him at a great price). His ownership certainly shouldn't be at 1.6 percent it is in ESPN leagues. I'd pick him up in most leagues and bench him until the control rights itself. He has too much potential to drop now in deeper leagues where great pitchers are scarce. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Mike O'Connor | WAS | SP: O'Connor is interesting. He has a 8.76 K/9 and 2.74 BB/9 in nearly 50 combined innings of Triple-A ball in 2006 and 2008, but had a 5.06 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9 in the majors in 2006 and a 5.80 K/9 and 2.40 BB/9 in Double-A in 2007. Very strange. He was impressive in limited innings to start this year and is worth a look, but there is some downside. He's also a fly ball pitcher. Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team NL-only leagues. Chad Billingsley | LAD | SP: If Billingsley has been dropped in your league, pick him up. His strikeout numbers are fantastic, and while his walk rate isn't very good, he still has value. Plus, there's a pretty chance it will lower as the season drags on. Too much talent here to leave it on the Waiver Wire. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Jair Jurrjens | ATL | SP: I still think Jurrjens could benefit from some more time in the minors, but he seems to be in the majors to stay and has some fantasy value. His 7.31 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, and 53 percent ground ball rate are right in line with what he did in Double-A last year. He might regress a little, but he's worth owning in case he doesn't. Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues. Ryan Ludwick | STL | OF: Ludwick has some serious power, and it is 100 percent for real. He hasn't had a HR/FB below 10 percent since his 81 at-bats with the Rangers in 2002, and his HitTracker profile from both 2008 and 2007 shows that he can crush the ball. His fly ball rate is currently only 41 percent and his 25 percent HR/FB is too high, but if he readjusts to his career 47 percent fly ball rate, this production could continue. His .443 BABIP is far too high and he doesn't have very good contact rates, so an adjustment to .250 or so is in order. He could still hit 20-25 home runs (given 500 at-bats, with the potential for a few more) and grab a couple of steals. He has to battle for playing time with Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker and Brian Barton, but when he plays he bats cleanup and should be good for RBIs and runs. You could do much worse than Ludwick right now, especially if you need power. Recommendation: Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Cristian Guzman | WAS | MI: The .322 BABIP might be a little too high (Marcels projected .303 and Bill James .316), but that .308 batting average is mostly for real. His 92 percent contact rate is, however, significantly better than his career 85 percent mark and could regress. Still, a .290 batting average and eight or so homers and five-10 steals out of a middle infielder batting second isn't bad at all. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Juan Pierre | LAD | OF: Pierre is owned in just 53 percent of FOX leagues and 56 percent of CBS leagues. Not acceptable. Yeah, he's splitting time, but a few less at-bats doesn't make him 40 percent less valuable. Still will get a good number of at-bats, steal bases, score runs, and hit for a high average. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Mike Cameron | MIL | OF: In the four years (2002-2005) not playing in PETCO that we have batted ball data on, Cameron had a HR/FB rate lower than 14.5 percent just once. It is 17 percent this year, and he always hits a lot of fly balls. The average won't be there, but a .255 batting average with 20-25 home runs over 500 at-bats is pretty likely for Cameron. He could also steal 15-20 bases and score a bunch of runs batting second with a decent RBI count. Definitely an overlooked guy right now. Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Jose Bautista | PIT | 3B/OF: Baustista's power has always been for real, and HitTracker shows that he can hit the ball a long way. The batting average won't be much higher than .250, but he's batting second a decent bit, might score some runs, grab a reasonable amount of RBIs, and hit 15-plus homers given 500 at-bats. Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Chris Iannetta | COL | C: Iannetta is a guy with a lot of potential playing the scarcest position in the game. The contact rate isn't very good, but it was much better in the minors and has room for growth. He has a good BABIP history and is showing decent power this year. The current average is being driven by the .444 BABIP, and his final batting average might end up around .240 or .250 unless he keeps the BABIP above .300 or improves the contact rate. He could hit a dozen homers, though, given 500 at-bats, and has some decent potential for upward mobility. He's getting playing time and batting seventh, so he might be worth a look in two-catcher leagues. Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team, two-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in all two-catcher NL-only leagues. Can be ignored in single-catcher leagues. |