THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:13pm (0) Comments

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Waiver Wire: American League (Week 7)

Clay Buchholz | BOS | SP: Buchholz will get dropped in some leagues because he'll be going on the disabled list, but I don't see why. The Red Sox were going to limit his innings anyway, so he'll still probably finish the year the same. Since that's all that really matters, and you knew that when you drafted him, what sense is there in dropping him?
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

David Pauley | BOS | SP: Pauley's 6.44 K/9 and 2.87 BB/9 weren't great in Triple-A last year, and his strikeout rate is down below 5 this year. He did have a 55 percent ground ball rate, but Pauley really isn't a great option. Justin Masterson would be better, but it doesn't look like he'll be the choice. The recommendation below assumes Pauley ends up receiving the call.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues, for now.

Bartolo Colon | BOS | SP: Even if Pauley does get called up, he might make only one or two starts. Bartolo Colon needs to be called up before June 1 or he can opt out of his contract, and there are some indications that the Sox want to call him up by then. I don't know if he's worth stashing in most leagues, but he's been good in two minor league starts so far. He had only a 6.89 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9 last year (and was even worse in 2006), so don't get too excited.
Recommendation: Can be ignored in mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in 12-team and monitored in all AL-only leagues, for now.

Daniel Cabrera | BAL | SP: I discussed Cabrera last week, but he is so interesting. His 3.58 BB/9 is the best of his career, but his strikeout rate is now on a three-year decline, sitting at 5.52. He's had just one start this year with a K/9 above 7.5, although he has had five starts with a BB/9 equal to or below 3.00. That's 56 percent of his starts compared to 26 percent last year.

It won't matter, though, if those strikeouts don't come back up. Pizza Cutter found that K/TPA stablilizes at 150 batters faced, and Cabrera is currently at 254, so there is no guarantee that they will come back. Best to stay away in most leagues for now. One last thing to consider: For all of the potential people say Cabrera has, he didn't post a single TQS Great start last year (he does have one this year; more about True Quality Starts here).
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues.

Justin Duchscherer | OAK | SP: As skeptical as I was coming into the season, Duchscherer has been quite good as a starter. Granted, it's only five starts and 28.2 innings, but the 7.53 K/9 and 2.20 BB/9 look quite good. It isn't impossible they'll keep up given his excellent numbers in the bullpen. If you have room and want to speculate on someone, Duchscherer makes a decent pick as his stats begin to stabilize and we see if he's for real.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues, for now.

Jesse Litsch | TOR | SP: In 46 innings this year, Litsch has improved both his strikeout and walks rates while maintaining a very good 48 percent ground ball rate. The strikeout rate is past the 150 batters faced stabilization point, but the walk rate isn't there yet. Still, he's 23, and legitimate improvement is certainly a possibility. His K/9 is still just 5.28, but he makes a decent pickup if you have high-strikeout pitchers to make up for it. Could regress, but makes a decent speculative pickup (though not quite as good as Duchscherer).
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues.

Mike Mussina | NYY | SP: Don't be fooled by Mussina's good year thus far. He is not the Mussina of old. His strikeout rate is down to 4.35, and while his control has always been good, a 1.09 BB/9 is not really sustainable. He was a little unlucky last year, but an ERA under 4.50 would be a surprise.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues.

Ian Kennedy | NYY | SP: Kennedy has been called back up by the Yanks. He's had good (though not elite) minor league numbers in the past, but he didn't post a single TQS Above Average start this year in the majors. I do think he could be good, but the potential for a blow-up is certainly there. You can speculate on him, but don't be counting on him for a whole lot. The control has been good in the minors, but that seems to be his problem in the majors thus far (though his strikeout rate has been only around league-average).
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues.

Eddie Guardado | TEX | RP: With C.J. Wilson struggling (and potential replacement Joaquin Benoit struggling too), it looks as though Guardado might be next in line. Wilson has blown only one save (and converted eight), but his ERA stands at 5.09 and his skills look bad. Guardado was the choice to close a game this week when Wilson was unavailable, so he might be the guy to own if you think Wilson will lose the job. I doubt he'd do a much better job than Wilson, however.
Recommendation: Can be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues.

Joe Borowski | CLE | CL: Borowski will be returning soon, and if he was dropped in your league and is still available, he needs to be picked up. He will return to the closer's role, and while he might not be the most effective closer in the league, he will be a closer and needs to be owned if you lack saves.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Masahide Kobayashi | CLE | RP: - Rafael Betancourt continues to look awful in the closer's role, though a .360 BABIP, 65 percent LOB rate, and 16 percent HR/FB are more to blame than his skills, which are still good. Still, the Indians might not be able to keep him in the role much longer given his surface numbers to this point. Borowski could be back by next weekend, but until then, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Kobayashi pick up a couple of saves.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues, for now.

Scott Downs | TOR | RP: B.J. Ryan looks very strong so far, and it's my understanding the Tommy John surgery isn't going to produce a relapse from after you regain your health, so the chances of Downs inheriting the role are about the same as a guy like Jonathan Broxton or Hideki Okajima. His skills are good, though, and he has some value simply because of the that. In leagues where setup men have value, Downs is a decent one to own.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues, for now.

Santiago Casilla | OAK | RP: I picked Casilla up in a couple of leagues last week and forgot to mention him, so you have my apologies. After his injury a couple of days ago, though, I've already seen him dropped in one league in which he was picked up earlier in the week. We'll talk about this in more detail soon, but if Huston Street gets traded (and I think there's a decent chance he will be) or injured, Casilla becomes the closer.

His skills have been spectacular, and if he becomes closer, he immediately becomes one of the better options. He has been placed on the DL, but that just means he'll be easier to acquire. Watch for the severity of the injury, though. Recommendations assume he'll be back within a couple of weeks. Even if it's a little longer, if you have a DL spot open, pick him up and stash him.
Recommendation: Can be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Milton Bradley | TEX | OF: Bradley has his injury concerns (and is currently dealing with a sore right shoulder), but he's getting regular playing time as Texas' cleanup hitter. He has a below-average contact rate, but his power and history of good BABIPs should allow him to hit .280-.285. Given 500 at-bats, he could also contribute 23 home runs or so.

He has good power and a hitter's park, and has Josh Hamilton, Michael Young and Ian Kinsler in front of him. That should allow him to get plenty of RBIs. The batters behind him aren't as good, but the combination of his early position in the lineup and his great walk rate should allow him to score runs, too. In addition, he could steal a handful of bases.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Freddie Bynum | BAL | SS: Bynum is the new starting shortstop in Baltimore. He has a career 69 percent contact rate, but it is 84 percent this year. It's only been 22 at-bats, though, so this could be a small sample size thing. He has shown a little power, has a history of good BABIPs (though he only has 261 career at-bats), and can steal a bag. It's difficult to know what to expect since he received limited at-bats over the past few years sitting on the bench in the majors.

He might hit only .245 or so (assuming his current contact rate isn't for real), but he could hit eight home runs with 25-plus steals. He could steal even more; his stolen base attempt rates have been 39 and 53 percent the past two years. Very few everyday players can get away with that. Bynum has the potential to be Michael Bourn without the runs but with a little more pop.
Recommendation: Should be owned in only in very deep mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in eight-team and owned in 10-team AL-only leagues.

Kenji Johjima | SEA | C: Johjima's ownership is down to 39 percent in ESPN leagues, but this is really unwarranted. His skills are relatively unchanged: His contact rate is improved, his walk rate is improved, and his batted ball profile is very similar. His BABIP is an unlucky .236, and his HR/FB is just 2.5 after it was nine percent and 11 percent the past two years. He's 31 years old, and while he has hit only one homer so far, it did go the same distance and to the same location that his homers did last year.

While I don't know if he'll put up an 11 percent HR/FB again, cranking back up to eight or nine is quite reasonable. With that, combined with a regressed BABIP, he should be fine. He has to worry about Jeff Clement a little, but Clement is getting at-bats at DH, and Johjima's sparkling new contract should prevent the Mariners from removing him anytime this year. He's been dropped to seventh when Clement is in the lineup, but as a catcher, you do much worse.
Recommendation: Should be considered in eight-team and owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Brad Wilkerson | TOR | OF: With Vernon Wells on the DL, Wilkerson should platoon with Kevin Mench in right field. Given 500 at-bats, he could hit 20 homers, although the batting average might not be too much better than .230 or .240. He has played in five of the six games since Wells went out and has batted leadoff in the last four, meaning he'll get some runs. He isn't much better than an AL-only pick, though.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues.

Jim Thome | CHW | 1B/UT: I'm issuing a huge 'hold' on Thome. His contact rate, walk rate and batted ball profile are very much in line with the past few years. His .244 BABIP is the lowest of his career, and it has been below .300 just once since 1993 (in 2005). Thome is 37, but it will bounce back. His 19 percent HR/FB is down from the past two years, but HitTracker shows that his raw power is very much intact, and his fly ball rate is the same. While 19 percent is very good, it's quite probable it will get even better.

Thome's slump will likely cause him to ride the pine for much of the first round of interleague play (when playing in an NL park), but this should only create a better buying opportunity.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Maicer Izturis | LAA | MI/3B: Izturis is back from the DL and will start at second base until Howie Kendrick returns. He always puts up good contact rates, and his 94 percent mark this year is fantastic. It could drop, but as his BABIP rises, he should be good for a .285 average or so. He can hit for a little power, though his fly ball rate is just 23 percent so far this year (career 34 percent).

He also could help with steals. His stolen base attempt rates were 24 and 17 percent in 2005 and 2006, but it fell to 8 percent last year, possibly due to hamstring troubles. It's up to 27 percent this year, and he succeeds at a career 80 percent rate. Given 550 plate appearances, 30 steals would be pretty likely. He'll battle Erick Aybar for time, though, once Kendrick returns.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in 10-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues, for now.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:05pm (0) Comments

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Waiver Wire: National League (Week 7)

A couple of changes to the AL Waiver Wire following some news from today.

American League

Justin Masterson | BOS | SP - It looks like Masterson will be brought up after all. He posted a 9.16 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, and 66 percent ground ball rate in Double-A last year, so he certainly has the potential to succeed. The drawbacks are that he wasn't nearly that good in Advanced-A to start 2007, but his numbers to start 2008 are much closer to his Double-A ones. His walk rate has increased to 3.90, but that could be a small sample size issue (his strikeout rate also increased, though).

He has started one major league game already this year and posted a TQS Above Average start (more about True Quality Starts here), and will probably make a decent pickup. He will only make one start, though, which leads into the next guy...
Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all but the shallowest AL-only leagues, for now.

Bartolo Colon | BOS | SP - That the Sox have said Masterson will only make one start and that Colon will start the next day and fill the rotation spot until Clay Buchholz returns. Once he does, it'll be interesting to see what happens. Until then, though, Colon can be owned in some leagues.
Recommendation - Can be considered in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues.

David Pauley | BOS | SP - Not getting called up, so leave him alone.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in all leagues, for now.

National League

Clayton Kershaw | LAD | SP - The whispers that the Dodgers could be getting ready to recall top prospect Clayton Kershaw are getting louder. There is lots of hype around him, and lots of sites are saying that he is the guy to save your top waiver priority for. I'm skeptical. Check out the minor league peripherals

2007, A+, 97.1 IP, 12.4 K/9, 4.6 BB/9
2007, AA, 24.2 IP, 10.6 K/9, 6.2 BB/9
2008, AA, 36.2 IP, 9.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

First, he's only pitched 61.1 innings at Double-A and none at Triple-A. His strikeout rates were good in 2007, but the 9.8 mark in Double-A this year isn't something to drool over. Also, up until this year, his control was awful. I don't consider 36 innings enough of a sample to decide that he's made changes. It might make sense that the increased control is a function of him lowering the strikeouts, but it's too soon to draw that conclusion. Either way, I don't see these numbers translating to much better than a 7.5 K/9 and 3.25 BB/9 in the majors. He has an above-average ground ball rate, but I'm not getting my hopes up too high for Kershaw. That being said, if you want to stash him, he does have potential.
Recommendation - Can be owned in 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be considered in 8 and 10-team and owned in 12-team NL-only leagues.

Bronson Arroyo | CIN | SP - Arroyo's 6.08 ERA is far too high, being driven by a .360 BABIP, 63 percent LOB%, and 14 percent HR/FB. His 8.2 K/9 is the highest of his career, and his 3.4 BB/9 is decent enough. His ownership has fallen to 16 percent in ESPN leagues. If he was dropped in yours, it might be a good idea to grab him.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Andrew Miller | FLA | SP - Miller would benefit from time in the minors, but his 7.2 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 aren't awful. His BB/9 was 5.5 in 64 innings last year, so he could struggle, but he's worth owning for now and certainly has upside. His ground ball rate is down to 40 percent, but even at that, it's not bad. Miller makes a decent pickup.
Recommendation - Can be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Derek Lowe | LAD | SP - Lowe's .331 BABIP and 61 percent LOB% are inflating his ERA. His peripherals are right line with his numbers from last year, and his strikeout rate is better than it was in the year's prior. His ground ball rate is down a little, but it's still 57 percent and he has a whole career of better rates, so it could easily bounce back. Either way, Lowe can be a valuable pitcher and deserves to be owned in more than the 64 percent of ESPN leagues in which he is owned.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Sean Gallagher | CHC | SP - I talked about Gallagher in the off-season. It's surprising that he's in the rotation over Jon Lieber and Sean Marshall, and he could get ousted when Rich Hill returns, but Gallagher can be owned until then. Up until this year, he put up good, but not great, numbers in every category in the minors. In five Triple-A starts this year, he his 9.31 K/9 and 2.79 BB/9 looked very good.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Eric Gagne | MIL | CL - Gagne is back closing for the Brewers. He struggled a little in his first opportunity but came away with the save and zero runs allowed. He might have a short leash for now, but he is the best option the Brewers have and needs to be owned.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Ryan Doumit | PIT | C/OF - I discussed Doumit a couple of weeks ago, but with his recent injury, some are wondering what to do with him. He could be out until the middle of June, but with how well he's been playing, it will be very difficult to drop him. In leagues where you have more than three or four bench spots, he is worth hanging into until then. If you are in a position where you would need to leave a spot empty until he returns, you should probably drop him. If you can get away with stashing him, though, I'd do it.

Jay Bruce | CIN | OF - Corey Patterson is hitting .227 with a .273 OBP and .412 SLG. There's a decent chance we'll be seeing Bruce in the majors in a couple of weeks. If he's unowned in your league, now might be the time to grab him. His contact rates have only been around 75 percent, although he has good power and a great history of BABIPs. He even has seven steals in eight attempts this year. There is a lot of variability in Bruce's projection, but with the tremendous upside he has, he needs to be owned in most leagues where you have more than three or four bench spots.
Recommendation - Should be stashed in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Chase Headley | SD | OF - Maybe not as good a prospect as Bruce, but he could be of help to fantasy owners too. The Padres currently have Jody Gerut and Paul McAnulty in left field right now, and Headley would be an upgrade. He has doesn't quite have the power or BABIP history of Bruce, but both are good, and he has slightly better contact rates. PETCO might not help with the power, but he still should be an asset.
Recommendation - Should be strongly considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Jim Edmonds | CHC | OF - Edmonds was just signed by the Cubs this week. As of last year, he had a good deal of power left in his bat, and he hits lots of fly balls. He could hit 20 homers given 500 at-bats, though he might only hit .250. He's got Reed Johnson to worry about, but the Cubs will probably go with Edmonds against righties and Johnson against lefties. He batted sixth in the one game he's played for the Cubs so far, and it if he sticks there might be able to get some RBIs. Manager Lou Piniella likes to steal a lot more than former manager Tony LaRussa does, so Edmonds might even collect a handful of steals.
Recommendation - Can be considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in 8-team and owned in 10-team NL-only leagues.

Stephen Drew | ARZ | MI - Drew has a little power, but his current 9 percent HR/FB might be just a little too high. His contact rate is much improved, though, and after 158 plate appearances might indicate a legitimate shift. He might only hit .275 with 15 homer production (given 500 at-bats), but he could score some runs and steal some bases batting second for the D'Backs.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Jerry Hairston Jr. | CIN | MI/OF - Jeff Keppinger's replacement probably won't provide as much value as Keppinger did. He might only hit .240 or .250 with a handful of homers, and he only has a career 69 percent stolen base percentage. He's lucky that Dusty Baker is his manager, so he might let him run as much as he usually does. His walk rate is on the decline, though, and he might not be on a whole lot to steal. He could still get 15 or so steals, though, which has a little value. He's also batting second, so he should score some runs.
Recommendation - Should be avoided mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 10-team NL-only leagues.

Dmitri Young | WAS | 1B - With Nick Johnson out for four-to-six weeks, Young will become the starting first baseman for the Nationals. His 9.4 percent HR/FB last year was the lowest since 2002 (the first year we have data for), but that could have been influenced by RFK, which deflates homers by 22 percent. It played even worse last year at 32 percent. He could hit .285 with 17 homers given 500 at-bats. He's batting cleanup, so he could grab a good amount of RBIs and runs as well.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:10pm (0) Comments

Monday, May 19, 2008

My first big trade of the year

Up until this point, I have only made a couple of small trades in my fantasy leagues. Last night, however, I finally made one that was of a little bit greater magnitude. I won't be discussing every trade that I make throughout the year, but this one included a player that I wanted to make a note about anyway. This trade gives me a good opportunity to do so.

The trade

I receive: Johnny Cueto and Kerry Wood
I give: Dustin McGowan and Ryan Franklin

The player I wanted to talk about was Cueto. There was a good article by Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs earlier this month talking about Cueto and how he had struggled with runners on base. This was probably a little worrisome to some people considering that Cueto was a rookie pitcher trying to adjust to the big leagues. It wasn't unfathomable that he was having difficulties when pitching from the stretch.

The good news is that Cueto has since been very good pitching from the stretch. Here are his numbers on the year:

Situation	IP 	K 	BB 	HR 
Bases Empty 	34.2	38	11	9
Runners On 	17	15	2	3

Cueto currently has a 5.75 ERA this year, but the fact that he is now pitching well out of the stretch leaves me with no doubts that his 61 percent Left On Base Percentage is simply bad luck. So is his 18 percent home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB), for that matter. Once those regress, his numbers on the year should give you a pretty good idea where his ERA will be.

IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	xFIP
51.2	9.23	2.26	36%	3.76

Great at striking guys out, very good control. The only problem is the low flyball rate combined with Great American Ballpark. Plenty of guys succeed despite low flyball rates (Aaron Harang, for one, who actually pitches in the same park as Cueto), though, and Cueto should be fine. Even if his HR/FB ends up being 12 or 12.5 percent, he should still be a very good pitcher.

This creates a perfect buying opportunity. A high ERA, from a rookie pitcher, who may or may not be perceived as having trouble pitching from the stretch, will lead plenty of owners to jump ship. Don't be one of them. I will be buying Cueto wherever I can, and I think I did a pretty good job in this trade. Sure, he could regress, but I think it's far more likely that he'll continue to pitch well.

I like Dustin McGowan, but he hasn't shown any improvement over last year (he's actually been worse). Cueto's numbers were there in the minors last year and are there in the majors this year. That I was able to swap Ryan Franklin for Kerry Wood only made it that much better, in my opinion.

Kerry Wood has sneakily been very good this year with, 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings, 1.7 walks per nine innings, and a 47 percent groundball rate. While he has blown three saves and has Carlos Marmol to worry about, I trust him far more than I trust Franklin. Franklin doesn't have the skills to be a closer, has Jason Isringhausen to worry about when he comes back, and has guys like Russ Springer, Kyle McClellan, and Chris Perez to worry about right now (not to mention himself!). It's really only a matter of time before either Izzy gets healthy and takes the job back or Franklin implodes and loses it himself.

Sure, Marmol is more talented than Kerry Wood, but Lou Piniella and the Cubs chose Wood for a reason. With him pitching well, it makes no sense to make a change now. Sure, he could start pitching poorly, catch some bad luck (which he has had a little of already), or get injured, but he still is a better percentage play than Franklin.

Concluding thoughts

If you guys have a different opinion on this trade, feel free to comment or send me an e-mail! Also, I've got some exciting things planned for this week, so be on the lookout!

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:36am (0) Comments

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

No knee to worry: Papi is back

The start of the 2008 season was one that David Ortiz would likely want to forget. He began it mired in one of his worst slumps ever. He started the season 3-for-43 (.070), with only 3 RBI before April 16—a span of 14 games.

There has been plenty of talk that his right knee, which had been operated on in early November 2007 following the World Series—was bothering him. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn’t. During the slump, when he was asked about the knee, he said it was “fine,” and that the problem, more than anything, was mental.

I believed him. Anyone who watched those early Red Sox games this season could tell that something was not right with Big Papi. He did not have the same confident, focused, “I’m going to kill the best pitch you offer me” look that he normally has.

His stance in the batter’s box did seem different, however: He was maintaining a more upright posture. More than likely, this was happening subconsciously as a result of the surgery. The body has the ability to create altered movement patterns to compensate and protect itself against injury—in this case, preventing him from pivoting over the surgically repaired meniscus. He was not wincing or grimacing in pain, so I felt he was just lost at the plate, both mentally and mechanically.

On Sunday, April 13, Terry Francona made a great (and underrated, in my opinion) call—he benched Ortiz in a game versus the Yankees.

Said Francona, "I just think it's the right thing to do…He came in today with kind of a little bounce to his step, a little more light-hearted than he's been. He'll have a good work day and then he can take a little bit of a mental (day off). I think it's gotten to the point where it's building, where he needed a break. That's the best way to put it.

"I think he woke up this morning knowing he wasn't going to play and he can go get his work done. It's never a lot of fun to not have his presence in the lineup, but I think it's the best thing to do."

Ortiz then went to work with hitting coach Dave Magadan to iron out problems with his mechanics. The day off apparently was just what Ortiz needed to get himself on track. What has ensued has been pure greatness—vintage Papi.

The day following his day off was against Cleveland, and he had a multi-hit game, just his second of the season. He hit safely in both games against Cleveland, and did manage a hit against the Yankees his next time out to put together a modest three-game hitting streak. A home series against Texas finally saw Ortiz flashing his skills and power, with a homer and five RBI. On the home stand, he hit safely in seven straight games, with three homers and 16 RBI.

He has not stopped hitting since. Since the day off in mid-April, he is hitting .307 with nine homers and 34 RBI, raising his average to .247.

Derek Carty provided me some great statistics to further demonstrate Ortiz' resurgence (note that this is a small sample size):

Slump (43 AB): 77% CR, 0.90 BB/K, 17% BB%, 0.063 BABIP, 9% LD%, 42% FB%, 48% GB%, 7% HR/FB, 43 AB/HR, 43 AB/XBH

Post-Slump (127 AB): 86% CR, 1.06 BB/K, 13% BB%, 0.300 BABIP, 17% LD%, 44% FB%, 39% GB%, 19% HR/FB, 14 AB/HR, 7 AB/XBH

In summary, he started hitting the ball harder—doubled his line drives put in play, and his power numbers escalated dramatically. The weak fly balls that were not leaving the yard during his slump were now finding their way to the outfield seats with much greater frequency.

Smart hitters usually find a way out of their slumps, though it is not always easy. Sometimes, a great managerial decision and some help from the hitting coach can go a long way in helping the process. I’m sure Ortiz would agree.

Posted by Chris Neault at 10:45pm (0) Comments

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Player spotlight: Johnny Cueto

I mentioned Johnny Cueto the other day, but I wanted to take an even deeper look today. I hope you've been reading some of the excellent analysis done with PITCHf/x already. If not, you're in for a treat, as I think it can lift analysis to new and unprecedented levels. This will mark my first real foray into using these date, and before I start, I'd like to throw out a few thank yous to the people who have made this possible.

Thank you

First, a big thank you to MLBAM and Sportvision for having the vision and capability to install the PITCHf/x system in major league ballparks as well as their continued efforts to improve the system.

Second, a hearty thank you to fellow THT writer Josh Kalk. In all of my PITCHf/x analysis, I will be using the data he has collected, classified and corrected. This sounds like a daunting task to say the least, and he has not only done a fantastic job with it, but has been kind enough to share it with us. Bravo, Josh. In addition, he's helped me with a ton of questions I had about the system and uses for the data.

I'd like to also thank fellow THT writers Mike Fast and John Walsh for their assistance with additional questions I have come across as I begin to use these data and for their (Josh included) excellent, field-leading research that has paved the way for people like me. I don't want to leave anyone out, so to everyone else who has contributed to our understanding of PITCHf/x and have come up with new uses for the data, thank you as well.

Now, let's get into the analysis!

Numbers

Note: All numbers in this article exclude Cueto's start from May 21. I don't currently have the PITCHf/x data for that start, so for the purpose of continuity, all stats exclude this start. Not a whole lot really changes, although his strikeout rate would drop a little.

In this and in future analyses, we'll start with the usual numbers to see what a player has been doing, then moving on to the PITCHf/x stuff to see how he is doing it.

Surface Numbers

YEAR	AGE	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	W	SV
2008	21	9	51.7	5.75	1.20	2	0

Skill Set

YEAR	AGE	GS	IP	LIPS	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	xGB PERC
2008	21	9	51.7	3.43	1.18		9.23	2.26	35

Luck Indicators

YEAR	AGE	GS	IP	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	RS*	TEAM R/G*
2008	21	9	51.7	61	0.278	18	17	3.34	4.27

*Note: I've added Runs Support (RS) and Team Runs per Game (TEAM R/G) to the stat line. A pitcher who isn't receiving his fair share of a team's offensive production is likely to have fewer wins than he deserves.

Cueto clearly has talent. His LIPS ERA is a very healthy 3.43, and he's striking out more than a batter per inning to go along with above-average control. The only thing to worry about, as I noted at the beginning of the season, is his low ground ball rate and Great American Ballpark's tendency to inflate home runs by 28 percent.

He will likely post a HR/FB above the league norm of 11 percent the rest of the way, but 17 percent is far too high. This is partially the cause of his large ERA to LIPS ERA. The other culprit is his far too low left on base percentage, which we discussed the other day. His skills look fine when pitching from the stretch, and I would expect a LOB rate much closer to league average going forward.

When these two stats regress, Cueto's ERA should plummet. This information alone would make Cueto an excellent buy low candidate. Let's go deeper, though, to see how Cueto is doing on a start-by-start basis.

True Quality Starts

If you're new around here, you can read up on True Quality Starts here. If you're not looking to read a long, detailed explanation, True Quality Starts basically uses linear weights on a pitcher's skills (strikeouts, walks, batted ball breakdown) to calculate a "TQS Score" and takes a standard deviation approach to classify every start a pitcher makes into one of six categories: Great, Good, Above Average, Below Average, Bad and Awful.

Here are Cueto's TQS numbers so far this year. The first row gives the raw number of starts in each category since we're still early in the season, and the second row gives the percentages.

True Quality Starts

Great	Good	AbAv	BlAv	Bad	Awful	TQS*	GG*	BA*	GG/BA*
1	2	3	1	2	0	6	3	2	---
11%	22%	33%	11%	22%	0%	67%	33%	22%	150%

Note 1: Cueto's starts were plugged into the 2007 run environment because it is simpler this way and deals with a larger sample size. It is also probably more reflective of what the final 2008 run environment will look like than the current 2008 run environment would be.
*Note 2: TQS is the number of Above Average or better starts. GG is the number of Good plus Great starts. BA is the number of Bad plus Awful starts. GG/BA is simply a ratio of the two.

While these numbers look pretty good, they aren't amazing. They aren't quite as impressive as his raw peripherals are.

Here's why. Cueto hasn't developed the skill (or maybe the confidence from his manager given his 5.75 ERA) to go deeper than six or seven innings into the game. While he has posted some very good strikeout and walk rates during a lot of these starts, you really have to be stellar in order to get a Good or Great rating if you only go six innings.

Cueto also doesn't induce a lot of ground balls, so in games in which he induces less than his average of 35 percent, this can also affect the numbers. That isn't an excuse, but I wanted to mention it. The innings thing, I think, shows that while his starts aren't technically "Great" yet, the potential is there should he gain more stamina.

In one "Above Average" start, he posted a 9.0 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and a 33 percent ground ball rate but went only six innings. In another, he posted a 10.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 46 percent ground ball rate but again went only six. The skill is there, he just isn't putting up the innings yet.

Pitch f/x

Now let's look at what Cueto is doing with his pitches to achieve this early success. First, his movement chart, which is one of the most interesting I've seen since the inception of PITCHf/x.

Before we comment on it, let's look at one more.

Notice Cueto's sliders and change-ups. Not only do they have similar vertical movement and blended, seamless horizontal movement, but they are also thrown within the exact same range of speeds.

Because of this, they were actually all classified as sliders to begin with. You'll noticed that I artificially separated them into two groups—sliders and change-ups—at the 0.00 horizontal movement mark. The sliders probably extend a little bit into negative territory, but does it really matter what we call them? Their characteristics are so similar and they blend together so easily that I don't think it matters much in the grand scheme of things which is technically a "slider" and which is a "change-up."

This certainly is strange to see, but is it a good thing or a bad thing? Let's look at a few more graphs before we answer.

I first saw this graph (and the next one) in Josh's curveball and slider articles that have run over the past couple of weeks. A big thanks to Josh for the patience to help me learn to put them together myself.

As we would expect given the nearly identical vertical movement on the two pitches, Cueto's slider and change-up take almost the exact same path when we look at it from a side angle. Let's see how they compare when we take an overhead view.

Here, we see some divergence, which occurs pretty close to the plate. We see that the two pitches come in on very similar paths, but then they dart in opposite directions 20 feet or so from the plate. This has to be difficult for batters, seeing the pitches coming in with the same vertical movement, at the same speed, and from the same release point (something we'll examine a bit further in just a second), but not knowing which way it will dart until the ball is almost at the plate. I think this kind of deception is giving Cueto a big advantage.

Also, remember that we are looking at the "average" slider and "average" change-up for Cueto. We know from our movement chart that both Cueto's slider and change-up have a great deal of variability in their horizontal movement. The two have a range of horizontal movements from -7.68 to 5.97, a difference of 13.65! That is absurd. So while the gap doesn't appear huge in the top view graph, there is actually an extremely wide array of possible movements the pitch can take, and the batter has very limited time to react.

Essentially, the batter has no idea if the pitch coming in is a slider or change-up (assuming they've first decided that it's slow enough not to be a fastball). Then, once they see it moving in one direction or the other, they need to decide how far it's actually going to move.

On this topic, let's look at the late break Cueto is getting on his pitches. Excellent idea on the part of Mike, and a big thanks to him for teaching me how to put it together. Here's Mike's description of late break from his PITCHf/x primer.

The goal is to show something close to what the hitter perceives as the break or movement of the pitch. I calculate the deflection of the pitch due to two forces, spin and gravity, in the last 0.25 seconds of its trajectory before it crosses the plate, an idea I got from Tom Tango. I chose a quarter second because that’s roughly the reaction time of a batter executing a swing. I chose to include the effect of gravity because I believe that more accurately reflects what hitters see. Hitters don’t attempt to hit a gravity-less pitch; they attempt to hit a pitch that’s being affected by gravity and being deflected by spin.

Again, we see a good deal of variability in the movement of Cueto's pitches (especially on the change-up side), this time in the last quarter of a second before it crosses the plate.

Let's now take one more look at Cueto's deception.

I've never seen these charts used before, but I think they can add a lot to our discussion. We see that Cueto is being very consistent in hiding his pitches as they come out of his hand. The change-ups and sliders are on top of each other, and they essentially mirror the fastballs.

The kinks are still being worked out of the PITCHf/x system, and I believe Great American was one of the parks to experience trouble early this year, so there is a clump in each graph that doesn't really fit (from -3 to -2.5 in the horizontal graph and right above 5 in the vertical graph). They probably should be shifted over, but even if they aren't, all three pitches still mirror each other in both graphs. If we ignore these or pretend that they are shifted, we see that Cueto would have a pretty compact, repeatable release point. Always good to see.

Concluding thoughts

All in all, I think Cueto looks like a good play. He is getting unlucky so far in terms of his ERA, but his peripherals look very good. He's already turned in one TQS "Great" start and two "Good" starts, and if he had a little more stamina he would have at least a couple more.

As far as his actual pitch data go, there is a lot to like about Cueto. He can bring the heat with his fastball, but he also has a slider and change-up capable of very good movement. I would have to conclude that the wide variability in the movement of Cueto's slider and change-up do indeed benefit him. Combining this with nearly identical release points, very similar paths to the plate, good late break, and the deception of all of this combined, I think Cueto has found a very effective way of using these pitches.

As I mentioned a few days ago, I've already traded for Cueto in one league and I drafted him in another. I'll be looking to buy in the rest of my leagues, and I would advise you to do the same. Cueto looks like one of the best bargains in fantasy baseball.

Posted by Derek Carty at 7:58am (0) Comments

Waiver Wire: American League (Week 8)

Sorry for the lack of articles this week. This coming week we should really get started. I hope articles will be coming at you nearly every day for the rest of the season.

By the time you read this, an article about Johnny Cueto using PITCHf/x data should also be out to whet your whistle (awesome saying, right?). We'll be using PITCHf/x in player analysis articles from here on out, so good things should be in store. For now, here's the first half of the Waiver Wire for Week 8.

American League

Joba Chamberlain | NYY | RP/SP: Joba was almost certainly drafted in your league, but if he wasn't, it's time to grab him. The Yankees will stretch him out to become a starter, and he could be starting games within a month.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Dontrelle Willis | DET | SP: Not sure how long it will last, but the D-Train has been placed in the bullpen. I hope you weren't hanging onto Dontrelle while he was on the DL, and there isn't a pressing need to pick him up now that he's off. Three years of increasing walk rates and decreasing strikeout rates that weren't great to begin with make Willis an AL-only addition.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues.

Joe Borowski | CLE | CL: I mentioned Borowski last week, and he is now activated and should close immediately. Pick him up if he's still available.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Joey Devine | OAK | RP: At age 24, Devine is looking very good. His control is much improved over recent years and his strikeout rate is stellar. With Santiago Casilla injured (and apparently out up to eight weeks according to Chris Neault), there's a pretty good chance Devine would fill in as closer should Huston Street get injured too. Alan Embree might be the guy if Street were to suffer a short-term injury, but the job would likely be turned off to Casilla shortly after he returns. (He also probablt would close in the second half should Street get traded.) But if Devine continues pitching like this, he would have some value regardless.
Recommendation: Can be considered in mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues, for now.

Armando Galarraga | DET | SP: We talked about Galarraga a few weeks ago, and as expected, his peripherals have declined: 6.11 K/9 and 3.57 BB/9. His .192 BABIP and 7 percent HR/FB have kept his ERA low and even pushed Willis to the bullpen. These will regress and Galarraga will be a little below average as a pitcher. There's a pretty good chance he'll end up getting demoted when it happens.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues, for now.

John Danks | CHW | SP: Another starter we talked about a few weeks ago. Stats have started to stabilize a little, and while he still sports a lucky 78 percent LOB rate and 6 percent HR/FB, his skills are still pretty decent. Perhaps most encouraging is the 51 percent ground ball rate, which at 215 batters faced has surpassed the stabilization point set by Pizza Cutter. Strikeout rate is down a little from last year, but so is the walk rate.
Recommendation: Can be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues.

Dana Eveland | OAK | SP: Yet another repeat here. As we've said, Eveland has some potential, but the results aren't great so far. The 2.90 ERA is being largely influenced by good luck. His 6.39 K/9 and 3.48 BB/9 are only so-so.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues.

Hank Blalock | TEX | 3B/1B: Was going to be activated this weekend, but carpal tunnel syndrome has set him back. Still, he could be back in a matter of days, and even if he's out for a couple more weeks, he's probably worth stashing.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues.

Eric Chavez | OAK | 3B: Chavez also could be returning soon, but he's not nearly as good a pickup as Blalock. A .250 batting average with 20 homers (assuming 500 at-bats) might be what we should expect, although who really knows how his back will affect his power and ability to hit for contact. It's also possible he'll revert to being the Eric Chavez of old, but that's pretty unlikely at this point.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team and owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues.

Jose Guillen | KC | OF: Guillen was mentioned in Week 1, and he is finally starting to heat up. If he's still available, go get him. My words from Week 1: "He could hit 20 or 25 home runs and hit over .280. Plus, he hits in a prime RBI spot (cleanup), albeit for a subpar team." I still feel Guillen is a great add.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues.

Alexi Casilla | MIN | 2B: With Adam Everett on the DL, Casilla will start at second until he returns. Casilla puts up decent contact rates, though doesn't have much power. He did post a 27 percent stolen base attempt percentage last year to go with a 91 percent success rate. He's batted either first or second in four of the last five games, so he's a good pickup for steals and runs. He might only hit .240 or .250, though (although anything can happen with BABIP over the a couple of weeks).
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues, for now.

Brendan Harris | MIN | MI: Harris has seen a decrease in his contact rate, BABIP, line drive rate, fly ball rate and HR/FB this year. He will be playing full-time while Everett is on the DL and should pick up shortstop eligibility, but he is an unspectacular fantasy play. Might hit .270 with eight homers or so given 500 at-bats and might steal a couple bags. He could also score some runs as he's hit towards the top of the order a few times of late.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues, for now.

Akinori Iwamura | TB | 2B/3B: After a 60 percent stolen base success rate last year, Iwamura's attempt rate has fallen from 12.4 percent to 6.7 percent this year. He could begin stealing more, but why would they let him when he's been caught two of four times this year? A .270 average with eight or so homers and a handful of steals is probably what we should expect from Iwamura this year. His second base eligibility adds some value, though, and he will score some runs leading off for the Rays.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep eight-team AL-only leagues.

David Murphy | TEX | OF: Murphy looks like a decent pickup right now. He could hit .280 with maybe 15-homer production given 500 at-bats. While he isn't known for gaudy stolen base totals, he is four-for-five this year after going eight-for-nine in Triple-A last year, so there could be some value to be had there as well. Finally, batting fifth behind Milton Bradley, Josh Hamilton and Michael Young should help him grab a bunch of RBIs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Miguel Olivo | KC | C: Olivo is off to a good start, but his .339 BABIP is likely to high, as is his 18 percent HR/FB. This is propelling his BA upward as well as his home run totals. He has never had a BABIP that high before, and HitTracker shows that his raw power is the same as it has been. His fly ball rate is increased this year, but he's had only 90 at-bats and at least some regression is likely. I wouldn't change your preseason projections too much based on his hot start. Maybe a .240-.250 batting average with 18 homers given 500 at-bats.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in single-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in two-catcher 10-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in eight-team and owned in 10-team single-catcher AL-only leagues. Should be owned in all two-catcher AL-only leagues.

Posted by Derek Carty at 8:10am (0) Comments

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

The myth of the ‘law of averages’

Those who are regular readers here probably already understand why we should not rely on the "law of averages." Most competitive opponents will not trust or use it. However, I'm still running into people who use it to justify moves they make.

Wikipedia describes the law of averages as "a belief that outcomes of a random event shall 'even out' within a small sample." Essentially, the law of averages says that bad luck early will be evened out by good luck late, regardless of sample size.

The law of averages in fantasy baseball

In fantasy baseball terms, let's say that David Ortiz is absolutely a true .300 hitter, that his batting average skill level is exactly .300, and that he has simply been unlucky so far this year. A person using the the law of averages may say that because Ortiz is a true .300 hitter and/or because he had him projected to hit .300 at the beginning of the year, his current .247 batting average is simply bad luck. To simplify things, let's say that we're exactly one-quarter of the way through the season (even though we're further along than that now).

This person will then conclude that Ortiz should hit .318 over the final three-quarters of the season because, while he is only a .300 hitter, he has to hit that .318 to even out the bad luck early on. That way, he will finish at .300, his true skill level.

Even if Ortiz is truly an exact .300 hitter, it is ridiculous to think he'll hit better than that simply because he's had bad luck. Luck doesn't work this way. If you believe (or know, in this case, since we're working with absolutes to make the point) that a player's true skill level is .300, he should simply be expected to hit .300 going forward. In Ortiz's case this would leave him with a final average under .300.

Simple law of averages scenario

As unlikely as this scenario is, let's pretend that we just flipped 1,000 fair coins and every single time we flipped heads. We're preparing to flip 1,000 more coins and want to predict how many times it will land on heads and on tails. Because the first 1,000 coins landed on heads, should we predict that the next 1,000 will land on tails? I hope you're saying to yourself "absolutely not." That would be ridiculous. We should expect 500 to land on heads and 500 to land on tails.

When making predictions, we must ignore all past luck and assume that luck will be neutral. Just because someone has experienced bad luck in the past doesn't mean we should assume he'll receive good luck in the future. Over a long period of time (in baseball terms, this means several seasons), luck will tend to even out. In a sample as small as a single season, though, luck most certainly does not have to even out. It will in the case of some players, but this is not because of the law of averages.

Variability

Every season (and every subset of a season, like the three-quarters of a season we dealt with for Ortiz), without question, some players will get lucky and some will get unlucky. Regardless of whether Ortiz is an unlucky one in the first quarter season, there will always be a chance he will be one of the lucky ones for the remainder of the year. This is completely independent of his prior bad luck, though.

Because we don't know whether he will fall into the lucky or unlucky group, though, it would be incorrect to think he will be one or the other. We can never know for sure, and that's why they call it luck. We must always assume neutral luck and assume he will hit a flat .300.

Using the law of averages to your advantage

Even if this isn't news to you and even if you completely disregard the law of averages, it is still possible to use it to your advantage. If you are trying to negotiate a trade with a weaker opponent, try using the law of averages to persuade him or her.

Maybe say something like, "Nate McLouth is hitting .323 this year. He's obviously getting lucky. He's never hit higher than .258 in his career. What do you honestly expect him to hit this year? .270? Maybe? That means he'll probably hit like .250 the rest of the way to even out that luck. It's the law of averages. For me, the batting average doesn't matter much because I really just need the steals."

To a weak opponent, to someone who uses the law of averages, this will make sense. Even if you leave out the "it's the law of averages" part, you are still hinting at its meaning. Depending on the situation, you might even be more successful leaving it out.

In addition, if you're using the "feigning weakness" strategy we discussed last month, saying this type of thing to a strong opponent could further lead him or her to believe that you are weak. In all honesty, I don't take any of my competitors who rely upon the law of averages too seriously—unless, of course, I have reason to believe they're trying to throw me off.

Concluding thoughts

Sorry for not having a National League Waiver Wire this week and for the lack of posts over the past couple of days. The weekend got away from me with the holiday and everything, and I spent the past couple of days working on getting all the PITCHf/x stuff in order. I hope the future content will be even better for this. We'll start doing Waiver Wire's earlier in the week anyway, and I'll be sure to do the National League first this week. Look for that maybe tomorrow night.

Posted by Derek Carty at 8:30pm (0) Comments

Saturday, May 31, 2008

Waiver Wire: National League (Week 9)

Sorry for not having the National League Waiver Wire last week. With the holiday weekend, time got away from me. This week will have more players than usual.

National League

Salomon Torres | MIL | CL: Probably gone already in your league. If not, go get him. With Eric Gagne on the DL, Torres should get the majority of the saves in Milwaukee. He isn't fantastic, but he is a closer while Gagne is out.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

John Smoltz | ATL | CL: There's a chance Smoltz will be back this weekend and slide immediately into the closer's role for the Braves. He's worth picking up if his owner got impatient and dropped him, but there is a huge red flag attached to Smoltz. Chris Neault has been talking about him a lot at the Disabled List Informer. Not a very bright outlook. Great quote from Chris: "The second he notches a save upon return, I say sell, sell, sell!" I agree. Pick him up and sell him immediately.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues.

Rafael Soriano | ATL | CL: Soriano was just activated from the DL. He will close until Smoltz returns and pick up occasional opportunites once Smoltz returns (since Smoltz likely won't pitch on back-to-back days). With Chris' outlook on Smoltz, there seems to be a good chance Soriano will be closing shortly. He figures to get overlooked given the presence of Smoltz, but Soriano seems like one of the best setup men to speculate on right now. Of course, he is an injury risk himself. Which leads us too...
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues.

Mike Gonzalez | ATL | RP: With the injury concerns of Soriano and Smoltz, there is a reasonable chance Gonzalez will find himself closing at some point this year. He needs to prove that he is as effective as he once was, but the potential is definitely there. A decent speculative pickup. He can be owned in all leagues where you can stash him on your league's DL for a few weeks after he returns.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues.

Pedro Martinez | NYM | SP: There's certainly a lot of risk with Pedro, but he has the potential to be a very good fantasy starter who will help in all categories. He'll be coming off the DL on Tuesday, and now is the time to pick him up if he's still available.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Jason Bergmann | WAS | SP: Bergmann is one of the lone (true) bright spots for the Nationals' pitching staff this year. His 9.56 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 are very good. Don't get too excited, though, as it's in just five starts and he hasn't put up numbers like this at the major league level. He's also an extreme fly ball pitcher. He's been pretty good in the minors, though, and has a little potential.
Recommendation: Can be considered in 14-team mixed leagues, for now (if he keeps this up, he could be owned in much shallower leagues). Should be considered in eight-team and owned in 10-team NL-only leagues, for now.

Jorge Campillo | ATL | SP: Campillo wasn't good in the minors last year, but he has been excellent in three starts since joining the Braves' rotation: 16 strikeouts and zero walks through 15 innings. Speculate if you wish, but he doesn't have a track record of this.
Recommendation: Can be considered in 14-team mixed leagues, for now (if he keeps this up, he could be owned in much shallower leagues). Should be considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team NL-only leagues, for now.

Tim Redding | WAS | SP: Redding is by no means a good pitcher, but he has been putting up the best numbers he has had since 2001 and 2002. His 4.59 LIPS ERA isn't great, but it is serviceable if you think he can keep this up. His current 3.59 ERA is being aided by a low .260 BABIP and 9 percent HR/FB.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team NL-only leagues.

Seth McClung | MIL | SP: Why do the Brewers think McClung is an upgrade over Carlos Villanueva? Villanueva isn't great, but McClung is just awful. He has a career 6.51 K/9, 5.50 BB/9, and 37 percent ground ball rate. There's a decent chance the Brewers are just biding their time until Jeff Weaver shows them he's ready. He needs to be in the majors by the middle of the month or he can opt out of his contract. Either way, McClung is really unownable except in leagues where basically all starters are owned.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned only in deep NL-only leagues.

Wandy Rodriguez | HOU | SP: Wandy looked very good before getting injured this year, turning in a 9.3 K/9 and 1.93 BB/9 to go with two TQS "good" starts and another that was only "above average" because he went just five innings. Wandy has flashed potential in the past, and now that he's back from the DL, he makes a very good speculative pickup.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Doug Davis | ARZ | SP: Davis's story is a great one, and as much as I'm rooting for him, his skills just really aren't that good. He walks a lot of batters and doesn't strike out many, though he does induce ground balls at an above-average clip. Still, I'm not buying.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team NL-only leagues.

Eric Byrnes | ARZ | OF: Byrnes hasn't been himself this year and is now on the DL with two torn hamstrings. He isn't the same player fantasy owners thought they were drafting. The hamstrings will prevent him from running a lot, which will affect both his steals and BABIP. Power was great last year, but wasn't the same to start this year. We might be looking at .245 with 12-15 homers (assuming 500 at-bats). Don't expect too many steals, either. If you're low on bench spots, Byrnes is probably droppable.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Jeff Salazar | ARZ | OF: Salazar will face righties in Byrnes' absence, but it's difficult to know what to expect from him. He's put up contact rates ranging from 70 percent to 80 percent in the majors, though they have been as high as 86 percent at Triple-A. His major league BABIPs have been very good (.359 in 203 at-bats) but his Triple-A ones were .306 and .327. He has okay power and runs a little bit, and should have some NL-only value for the next couple of weeks, at least.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team NL-only leagues.

Jay Bruce | CIN | OF: We mentioned Bruce a couple of weeks ago, and now he has been recalled to the majors. The chance is always there for a rookie to struggle, but the potential for Bruce to be great means he should be owned in all leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Ryan Spilborghs | COL | OF: Spilborghs is a guy I said I liked at the end of last year. Now, with Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe on the DL, Spilborghs should have regular playing time for a while, something he really has deserved for quite some time. With Willy Taveras also around, he likely won't keep it once those two return, but for now he's a great pickup. He always puts up good BABIPs, and at age 28 this year is doing even better, plus he's striking out less and walking more.

His sub-30 percent fly ball rate is very strange given his excellent raw power. Just check out his HitTracker profile. Even with a low fly ball rate, Spilborghs could be expected to hit 19 or 20 homers given 500 at-bats. In addition to that, he could hit .310 with a handful of steals. He's also been batting between third and fifth, so RBIs should come. This position, combined with his excellent walk rate and good speed should allow for runs as well.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues, for now.

Ian Stewart | COL | 2B/3B: Stewart is an interesting guy. He was once a top prospect, then he fell off a little bit. This year, though, he's improved in many categories. He takes a good amount of walks, but he also strikes out a lot, which limits his batting average potential. His power hadn't been great the past two years, but a jump from a 28 HR/FB last year improved to 14 this year. This, combined with a 48 percent fly ball rate after it was just 33 percent last year, shows that there is some promise for continued power in the majors.

Overall, Stewart might manage only a .250 batting average (though there is upside here) but could hit 20 homers given 500 at-bats. He'll gain extra value once he gains second base eligibility, although there's no guarantee he's in the bigs to stay.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be considered in eight-team and owned in 10-team NL-only leagues.

Ty Wigginton | HOU | 2B/3B: Wigginton struggled early and spent some time on the DL, but he's a guy I was big on coming into the year and he's really heated up this past week. Here's what I said about him in Week 2: "Perfectly suited for the Crawford Boxes, Wigginton could hit .270-.275 with close to 25 homers (maybe more like 20 now that he'll miss some time)." As a second baseman, Wigginton has some very good value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues with a MI spot.

Randy Winn | SF | OF: Randy Winn has quietly stolen nine bases this year due to a 90 percent success rate and 19 percent attempt rate. It's been 10 and 12 percent the past two years and his career success rate is just 69 percent, but he could still be useful in this category. He's got decent power and is hitting more fly balls this year and is even hitting a lot in the No. 3 spot, albeit for the Giants. Splitting time between leadoff and No. 3 should help Winn score some runs and collect some RBIs to go with a .290-.295 average and 10 or so homers (assuming 500 at-bats). A decent help in all categories.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Elijah Dukes | WAS | OF: An 11 percent line drive rate and .192 BABIP did Dukes in last year, and he's striking out a ton so far this year, but with Austin Kearns on the DL, he might be worth owning. If he plays well, he might even find regular playing time once Kearns returns from injury. He showed good power last year and hit a lot of fly balls to go with a decent contact rate for a power hitter. Walks a ton, and might be worth speculating on.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in eight-team and owned in 10-team NL-only leagues.

Andre Ethier | LAD | OF: With Andruw Jones on the DL, Ethier will have regular playing time for a while. Above-average contact rates, good BABIPs, lots of line drives to support them, and decent power (though not a ton of fly balls). Not much speed, however. Expect maybe a .295 batting average with a dozen homers given 500 at-bats. If he can hit mostly second, he'll get a bunch of runs and a few RBIs. He's batted as low as sixth, though.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Jesus Flores | WAS | C: There's been talk that Flores could remain the catcher for the Nats once Paul Lo Duca returns, but he's not that great. His .465 BABIP is far too high, as is his 31 percent line drive rate. It's possible he's maturing as a hitter, but he really has no track record of this and never really progressed as he should, being forced to jump from Advanced-A to the majors after being taken from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft.

A .245 average with five to seven homers (assuming 500 at-bats) is probably what should be expected. If he does earn regular playing time, the RBIs and runs gained simply from the extra at-bats would be worth something in deep two-catcher leagues, but once the BABIP regresses he could lose that playing time anyway.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be owned in 14-team single-catcher NL-only leagues. Should be owned in all two-catcher NL-only leagues.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:11pm (0) Comments

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Thursday, May 15, 2008

Fantasy roundtable: Future of John Smoltz

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Saturday, May 17, 2008

Waiver Wire: American League (Week 7)

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Waiver Wire: National League (Week 7)

American League

National League

Monday, May 19, 2008

My first big trade of the year

The trade

Concluding thoughts

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

No knee to worry: Papi is back

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Player spotlight: Johnny Cueto

Thank you

Numbers

True Quality Starts

Pitch f/x

Concluding thoughts

Waiver Wire: American League (Week 8)

American League

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

The myth of the ‘law of averages’

The law of averages in fantasy baseball

Simple law of averages scenario

Variability

Using the law of averages to your advantage

Concluding thoughts

Saturday, May 31, 2008

Waiver Wire: National League (Week 9)

National League