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 Wednesday, November 19, 2008Fantasy fallout: Ryan Dempster re-ups with Cubs
+------+------+-------+----+------+------+-----+----+ | YEAR | TEAM | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K | SV | +------+------+-------+----+------+------+-----+----+ | 2008 | Cubs | 206.7 | 17 | 2.96 | 1.21 | 187 | 0 | +------+------+-------+----+------+------+-----+----+ Let's look a little deeper to see what we should expect in 2009. NumbersIf you're new to THT Fantasy Focus and are unfamiliar with LIPS ERA, K/BB RI, or any of the other stats I'm using, check out our quick reference guide. These stats provide a much clearer picture of a player's talent, so it's well worth taking a couple of minutes to learn them. +------+-----+----+----+-------+------+----------+-----------+------+------+---------+------+ | YEAR | AGE | G | GS | IP | ERA | LIPS ERA | DIPS WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB RI | xGB% | +------+-----+----+----+-------+------+----------+-----------+------+------+---------+------+ | 2004 | 26 | 23 | 0 | 20.7 | 3.92 | 3.98 | 1.50 | 7.84 | 5.66 | -0.13 | 53 | | 2005 | 27 | 63 | 6 | 92.0 | 3.13 | 3.46 | 1.43 | 8.71 | 4.79 | 0.22 | 58 | | 2006 | 28 | 74 | 0 | 75.0 | 4.80 | 4.40 | 1.48 | 8.04 | 4.32 | 0.18 | 50 | | 2007 | 29 | 66 | 0 | 66.7 | 4.73 | 4.19 | 1.38 | 7.43 | 4.05 | 0.06 | 48 | | 2008 | 30 | 33 | 33 | 206.7 | 2.96 | 3.87 | 1.28 | 8.14 | 3.31 | 0.35 | 49 | +------+-----+----+----+-------+------+----------+-----------+------+------+---------+------+ While Dempster's 2.96 ERA was somewhat lucky, his 3.87 LIPS ERA shows that he did have a legitimately good season. A .288 BABIP, 77 percent LOB%, and a 7.7 percent HR/FB all helped his actual ERA to be nearly a full point lower than it would have been with neutral luck, but his strikeout, walk, and ground ball numbers were all very solid. While this is a great sign for 2009, we need to be very careful not to get too enamored by Dempster's 2008 season and ignore the previous years, which were generally worse and came in relief innings. In fact, there are quite a few things that could give us pause in projecting an equally good season for Dempster next year. The fact is, 2008 was one of the best year's of Dempster's career. His strikeout rate was higher than it's been in every year except 2000 and 2005 (when he was in the bullpen), and his walk rate was the lowest of his career. Where did that come from...and at the age of 30? Looking at Dempster's PITCHf/x data, he doesn't seem to have improved any of his pitches. His fastball was still good, his change-up was still very good, and his slider was still kind of crappy. He did use the slider less frequently than in year's past, which likely helped to some degree, but there was very little overall change in Dempster's physical skills. Perhaps we'll do a more in-depth look at some of the mental pitching skills sometime in the near future. There was a discussion at The Book Blog yesterday about the possibility of Joakim Soria moving to the rotation which can be applied to Dempster's move this past year. Quoting Tom Tango, "the rule of thumb is to add 1 run to convert to a starter (not a hard and fast rule)." While this isn't an absolute measure (as Tango noted), let's take a look at what Dempster's 2004-2007 LIPS ERA would look like if we applied this rule: +------+-----+----------+ | YEAR | AGE | LIPS ERA | +------+-----+----------+ | 2004 | 26 | 4.98 | | 2005 | 27 | 4.46 | | 2006 | 28 | 5.40 | | 2007 | 29 | 5.19 | | 2008 | 30 | 3.87 | +------+-----+----------+ I also included his actual 2008 LIPS ERA (no adjustment needed since he spent the season as a starter) for easy comparisons. Here, we see that Dempster far exceeded what we would have expected for him at the start of the season. He jumped a full 1.32 points of ERA from 2007 to 2008 and 1.53 points from 2006. Those are huge numbers, and it makes me wonder — at the very least — how repeatable his 2008 line will be. Finally, I'd like to take a look at some of the cool new plate discipline stats up over at FanGraphs. +------+-----+------+------+-----------+----------+-------+ | YEAR | AGE | K/9 | BB/9 | F-Strike% | O-Swing% | Zone% | +------+-----+------+------+-----------+----------+-------+ | 2005 | 27 | 8.71 | 4.79 | 55.1 | 22.4 | 47.2 | | 2006 | 28 | 8.04 | 4.32 | 59.4 | 22.7 | 50.7 | | 2007 | 29 | 7.43 | 4.05 | 57.8 | 31.7 | 46.9 | | 2008 | 30 | 8.14 | 3.31 | 57.8 | 28.5 | 49.4 | +------+-----+------+------+-----------+----------+-------+ Eric Seidman recently posted an article with correlations for these stats. Here are the results we're interested in: +------+-----------+----------+ | Stat | F-Strike% | O-Swing% | +------+-----------+----------+ | K/9 | 0.19 | 0.28 | | BB/9 | -0.72 | -0.49 | +------+-----------+----------+ Essentially, F-Strike% (which is how often the pitcher gets a first-pitch strike on the batter) predicts walk rate very well and strikeout rate decently. O-Swing% (which is how often the pitcher induces swings on pitches outside the strike zone) predicts walk rate pretty well and strikeout rate moderately well. If we look back up at Dempster's stats, though, we see that his F-Strike% didn't move at all from 2007 to 2008 and is right in line with his four year average. His O-Swing% actually decreased from 2007 to 2008 (though it was still better than 2005 and 2006). So while Dempster's K/9 and BB/9 both got better this year, these stats really don't support such drastic improvements. I also included Zone% (which is simply how often the ball is thrown in the zone), which I assume correlates relatively well with walk rate since you can't walk a batter if you never throw outside the zone. This did improve from 2007, but it was worse than 2006 when Dempster posted a BB/9 a full-point higher (albeit with a lower O-Swing%). Concluding thoughtsOverall, we have to give Dempster credit for what he did in 2008, but we must also use this information in conjunction with what he's done in the past and with what some of the underlying indicators suggest. I would be much more comfortable putting Dempster down from something like a 7.8 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. This, in conjunction with a 50 percent ground ball rate, would still allow Dempster to post an ERA in the low 4.00s. Just make sure you aren't fooled by that 2.96 ERA or even the 3.87 LIPS ERA, because the odds seem to be against a repeat of either. Posted by Derek Carty at 12:01am (0) Comments Thursday, November 20, 2008Before the beginning, think of the endingIn my previous article, I wrote about choosing fantasy league rules that increase the happiness (broadly defined) of the players in your league. In particular, I warned against using rules that were drawn from Major League Baseball rules without first thinking about the effects that they would have on your league’s competitiveness. This week, I want to pick up on this theme and discuss a particular problem that many leagues have: How to keep the last half of the season interesting. To make things easy, let’s take a simple 12-team rotisserie league, where the winner takes all. By August, there will likely be several teams that do not have a realistic shot at winning, perhaps due to a key injury or a poor trade. Football season is starting, so some of the cellar-dwellers may stop updating their roster, leaving injured or inactive players on their active roster, and so on. Steadily, the inactive teams become less and less competitive. So while a team that starts the All-Star break in last-place in your league is probably still competitive in a few scoring categories, an inactive team will likely be at the bottom of most categories by the end of August. What are the effects of inactive teams on the rest of the league? Inactive teams generally drop out of competition faster in the counting stats (like home runs) than in the average stats (like WHIP), since injured players don’t get strikeouts (for instance) but have a neutral effect on WHIP. Competitive teams with mediocre counting stats are rewarded, since they will move up in the standing. It is like you’re competing against 12 teams in the batting average category, but only eight in home runs. It can also make it a lot harder for teams to move up in the standings, as the last place teams are unlikely to overtake a top team in any particular category. What rules can a commissioner use to try to prevent this fall in league attention? The key, of course, is to give something for the lower tier teams to compete for, that is, give them a reason to want to be in, say 10th place instead of 11th (and so on). For instance, keeper rules, which let teams keep some players for next season, may give a team a reason to remain active, searching for undervalued talent. But the best rules will be the ones that encourage competition without distorting other aspects of the league. A much simpler incentive scheme than keepers is to make the reward system contingent on the place of finish. For example, instead of having a 10-team league where each manager puts in $10 and the winner gets $100, imagine each team putting in $55. Then let the first place price still be $100, but give the second place $90, third $80, and so on. The idea is to spread the difference in prizes enough so that no team will want to drop out. Alas, this also means that each manager could lose a lot more money (4.5 times more in the example above). Many leagues may not want to have so much money (if there is any to begin with) at stake. Fortunately, there are other ways to incentivize. A common rule in multi-year draft leagues is to set the draft order in reverse order of finish from the previous year. Last year’s stinker team gets this year’s number one draft pick. Most professional leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA, etc.) have a version of this for their draft. Using this rule is a terrible idea for most fantasy leagues. The fewer keepers your league allows, the worse the reverse draft order rule is. It is a good example of sacrificing fantasy competitiveness for the sake of verisimilitude. If it was hard to incentivize the lower tier teams to compete before, with a reverse draft order in place, you’d actually be encouraging teams to tank! Indeed, two years ago, I was in a league where I was one of the tankers-in-chief. In a league with no keepers, all teams start the next season with a blank slate and on completely even footing, so there's no reason to give the worst team from the previous year the first pick the following year—except perhaps out of pity. I would encourage most draft leagues to get rid of the reverse draft order. Your league could revert to the same scheme that you probably used in the league's first year, determining the draft order by random lottery. But why not use draft order to reward competitive teams? This past year, one of my leagues decided to adopt a more complicated NBA-style lottery to determine draft order. Instead of giving the teams that finished at the bottom the highest probabilities of getting the top draft picks, we gave the higher probabilities to the teams that finished near the top. Of course, you don't need something this elaborate; for instance, just make draft order follow the order of last year's finish rather than the reverse order. Posted by Jonathan Halket at 1:04am (0) Comments Friday, November 21, 2008Consistency meter: Nick Markakis
In the first edition of Consistency Meter I looked at consistent producer Aramis Ramirez last week and concluded that he might undergo a regression in 2009 after five consecutive seasons of high production. That conclusion was unforeseen by most everybody (including me), showing that you can never be sure of any player regardless of how consistent he has been in the past. In that vein, we will examine another "consistent producer" today. This time it will be... Nick Markakis. Background+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | +------+-----+---------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ | 2006 | 22 | Orioles | 491 | 0.291 | 16 | 62 | 72 | 2 | | 2007 | 23 | Orioles | 637 | 0.300 | 23 | 112 | 97 | 18 | | 2008 | 24 | Orioles | 595 | 0.306 | 20 | 87 | 106 | 10 | +------+-----+---------+-----+-------+----+-----+-----+----+ Markakis will be 25 at the start of the 2009 season, so there is no reason to believe he will fall off because of his age. If anything, you would boost his stats slightly as he nears his prime years with more major league experience. Markakis has also never experienced a major injury. Looking at his surface stats for the last three years, you see that from his rookie season in 2006 to 2008 he has basically put up the same numbers. His averages over those years: .299 batting average, 20 home runs, 87 RBI, 92 runs and 10 stolen bases Markakis can hit for average, his bat has decent pop, and he can wreck some havoc on the base paths. Let's see if we can expect him to increase his production in any of those areas. We will start with the pop. Power skills+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | HR | tHR | HR/FB | tHR_FB | nHR/FB | RAW | OF/FB% | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+ | 2006 | 22 | Orioles | 491 | 16 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 3.6 | 27 | | 2007 | 23 | Orioles | 637 | 23 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 0.5 | 35 | | 2008 | 24 | Orioles | 595 | 20 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 0.7 | 31 | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+ If you're new to THT Fantasy Focus and are unfamiliar with True Home Runs (tHR) or any of the other stats I'm using, check out our quick reference guide. These stats provide a much clearer picture of a player's talent, so it's well worth a couple of minutes to learn them. Markakis' home run totals have been pretty much aligned with what his True Home Run (tHR) numbers predict. In fact in 2008, tHRs predicted 20 home runs and Markakis hit exactly that! If you read my Aramis Ramirez article, you probably remember my "food metaphor'" that classified the two types of home run hitters. Namely, either a hitter hits a lot of fly balls, or a high percentage of his fly balls go over the wall. Looking at the above chart, we see that Markakis does not hit a lot of fly balls and only an average percentage of his fly balls go for home runs. Markakis, therefore, should not be classified as a home run hitter. Unless he alters his approach at the plate to a more fly ball oriented one, Markakis will never become that slugger some expect him to develop into. +----------+-------+------+-----+--------+-----+-----+--------+-----+ | LAST | FIRST | YEAR | AB | OF/FB% | FL% | LD% | IF/FB% | GB% | +----------+-------+------+-----+--------+-----+-----+--------+-----+ | Markakis | Nick | 2006 | 491 | 25 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 51 | | Markakis | Nick | 2007 | 637 | 29 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 45 | | Markakis | Nick | 2008 | 595 | 24 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 46 | +----------+-------+------+-----+--------+-----+-----+--------+-----+ Looking at the breakdown of his batted ball types further, we see he is not going in the slugger direction. He is still primarily a groundball hitter with a high percentage of "fliners." (A fliner is a mix of a fly ball and line drive, the kind of ball that either falls in the gap for a single or double or goes right to the outfielder and you say the hitter got robbed.) League average fliner rate is 11 percent, so Markakis has become above average in that department. As a result, he is now below average in outfield fly ball percentage (OF/FB%). So while all of these fliners are good for his batting average, they do not The bottom line is that unless Markakis can increase his home run per fly ball percentage (HR/FB), he is never going to become a 30 home run hitter. The possibility of that happening remains open, though, because he has still not reached his prime power years. Looking at his Raw Power (RAW) and True HR/FB percentage (tHR/FB) in the first table, we see a slight increase in both, which is promising. If those stats continue to climb in 2009 and in subsequent years as I expect them to—albeit not by much—Markakis can potentially hit about 25 home runs in 2009 and possibly more in years beyond. Contact skills+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | BA | tBA | CT% | BABIP | mBABIP | LD% | BIP/HR | BIP/tHR | +------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ | 2006 | 22 | Orioles | 491 | 0.291 | 0.287 | 85 | 0.315 | 0.322 | 20 | 26 | 38 | | 2007 | 23 | Orioles | 637 | 0.300 | 0.288 | 82 | 0.335 | 0.330 | 18 | 23 | 29 | | 2008 | 24 | Orioles | 595 | 0.306 | 0.290 | 81 | 0.351 | 0.330 | 21 | 24 | 24 | +------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+--------- Markakis' True Batting Averages (tBA) have been fairly close to his actual batting average and very consistent on a year-to-year basis. The .10 disparity between the two—tBA and actual BA—can be attributed to the slight difference in his Marcels BABIP (mBABIP) and his actual BABIP. Not much going on there. Maybe Markakis' batting average will come down a few points in 2009. No big deal. Speed skills+------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | SB | SBA | SBO% | SBA% | SB% | FAN_SPEED | FAN_BALLOTS | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------------+ | 2006 | 22 | Orioles | 491 | 2 | 2 | 0.264 | 1 | 100 | 70 | 25 | | 2007 | 23 | Orioles | 637 | 18 | 24 | 0.258 | 13 | 75 | 68 | 57 | | 2008 | 24 | Orioles | 595 | 10 | 17 | 0.297 | 8 | 59 | 69 | 72 | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+------+-----------+-------------+ Markakis has never ran wild on the base paths, but has put up double-digit steals the past two seasons. He has been ranked about the same by the fans who voted for Tangotiger's Fan Scout Report, but in reality has had varied success stealing. In 2007 Markakis stole bases at a somewhat disappointing 75 percent clip. Then in 2008 he was successful on only 59 percent of his attempts. That is atrocious! Rightfully so, Markakis attempted to steal at a lesser rate last year than in 2007, probably when manager Dave Trembley saw he was getting thrown out at about the same rate he was stealing successfully. Markakis did get into more stealing opportunities in 2008, mostly because of his increased walk rate (8.7 percent in 2007, 14.3 percent in 2008) which kept his steals total in double digits, barely. Markakis is still young and reasonably fast (assumed from his great fielding numbers), so I am expecting him to be more successful at stealing bases in 2009. I am concerned, though, that he will be seeing the green light less. A total of about 10 steals again seems right; anything from 10 to 13 would not surprise me. Just don't think Markakis is good at stealing because, surprisingly, he is not. Final thoughtsTo sum things up, I expect much of the same from Markakis in 2009. Perhaps a couple more home runs are on the way, but I do not expect any sweeping changes to occur. The stats I predict are a .292 batting average with 24 home runs and 11 stolen bases. Draft accordingly! Posted by Paul Singman at 1:06am (0) Comments Chase Utley out 4-6 months: fantasy falloutFantasy baseball managers everywhere were likely found gasping for breath today when news broke that Chase Utley is going to undergo surgery on his right hip. This will probably be the biggest question heading into the 2009 fantasy baseball drafting season. This is a similar situation to last season, when many were debating where to select Albert Pujols due to questions about his elbow. The difference in this case is that we know that Utley will be having surgery, so the questions are when he will return, and how effective he will be going forward. Injury in reviewIt had been known throughout the midway part of the season that he was dealing with some hip pain, but it had apparently worsened in the waning months of the year. When exactly the hip pain began is not certain, but there has been word that he had irritated the joint during offseason workouts. His decline in slugging percentage in the last three months of the season was notable (SLG% of .443, .477 and .443 in July, August, and September, respectively), though his monthly batting average splits actually held steady (.278, .294, .284). His .220 postseason batting average was a glaring downturn, however, despite smacking three home runs and totaling nine RBI. His .292 season average, though excellent, was significantly lower than the .332 average of 2007 and .309 in 2006. Whether this slide was due to his hip pain is anyone’s guess. The issue with Utley’s hip is with the integrity of the acetabular labrum, which is a rim of cartilage that lines the outer aspect of the hip joint. It is often torn when the hip is repetitively forced into flexion (knee towards chest motion) and rotation—especially during weight bearing activities where the head of the femur (ball) approximates against the acetabulum (socket). When the cartilage tears, it either needs to be excised (removed) or repaired, depending on the size and location of the tear. Clouding the situation is that it is not known if any additional damage is present to the bone or ligament structure of the hip joint. The more structures involved, the more sensitive the joint will be postoperatively, and the slower the progress will have to be, so as to not irritate the tissue during rehab. Bone trimming is a commonly-performed aspect of a hip labrum surgery because it increases the chances of a successful outcome. If a simple debridement of the labrum is needed, the recovery time would also be shorter than if a repair is performed. Keep in mind that Mike Lowell has a similar problem with the hip labrum, but he is only expected to miss two to three months, which means that the doctors probably know that his situation is worse than Lowell’s. The surgery is set for some time next week, so we should know more then. Second base has historically been a fairly thin position in fantasy—though it has been a deeper position in recent years—but owners are probably wondering what this means for the 2009 season. Where do I draft him?For keeper league owners, this hip surgery is a huge point of interest. If you had/have the luxury of keeping Utley, there is no way you can leave him off your roster due to this...right? You have one of two options in keeper leagues: 1. Keep him, stash him, and draft a stopgap for the interim. 2. Release him, and hope that you can get him at a discounted price. If it were my team, I would simply keep him. If you have budget issues, or really don’t want to gamble with an average second baseman, you might consider No. 2. In yearly re-draft leagues, the immediate question is: Where do I select Utley? This is a very difficult question, mainly because of the cloudy prognosis for recovery. Depending on the damage within the joint, he could be out for as little as four months, or as long as six—we just don’t know yet. What we do know is that Utley apparently has an excellent pain threshold, and that he is young and extremely well-conditioned. His work ethic is well-known to be outstanding, so we have no need to worry about him slacking in his rehabilitation. If he is out for only four or five months, that would put his return sometime in the end of March or April. With a four-month return, I would still draft him in the late first round or sometime in the second round—even despite any lingering questions about his health. A five-month return might force you to wait until the late second round or early third round. If he has a more serious procedure, or if there are setbacks in his recovery, the six-month time frame would push his return into late-May or early June. In this scenario, you would be forced to bypass Utley in the first three rounds altogether, unless you are the gambling type (depending on who is being selected), or unless you have a very deep bench/DL roster and are comfortable with drafting an additional second baseman later in the draft. If he is out until June, nobody would chastise you for bypassing Utley altogether and targeting a player like Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Brian Roberts or Dan Uggla. Another point to remember is that many second basemen seem likely to slip far in drafts this year – Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips and Yunel Escobar come to mind. Not that this is any guarantee of his return date, but Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. expects Utley to be back on time, or close to it: “Our feeling is that he’s going to be fairly close to ready, if not be ready, by Opening Day.” What to expect production-wiseIf no setbacks or major issues arise in the rehab process, I would expect Utley to return fully and without gross limitations. It is not uncommon for patients who undergo this type of surgery to have residual discomfort in the anterior (front) of the hip or groin region. Soreness is a common occurrence, and is usually alleviated by rehabilitative modalities, range of motion activities, manual therapy, and exercise. Most of his limitations would likely be apparent with his defense and/or base running—if at all. In particular, getting into a low crouch to field a ground ball combined with pivoting to throw would be an activity that could create discomfort. Turning and exploding out of a lead from first base may also be difficult in the presence of an uncomfortable hip, so his stolen base totals could suffer early in the year. His ability to pull his hits to right field for power may initially be hindered, as he gets acclimated to rotating rapidly and forcefully over his front hip. Once again, I am banking on a fairly quick recovery from Utley, so my projections are based on what I am anticipating. I would also figure the Phillies would give him some extra days off over the course of the season in any event: Projections: 138 games, 514 AB, .292/.374/.520, 23 HR, 96 RBI, 9 SB Posted by Chris Neault at 10:44am (0) Comments Monday, November 24, 2008Finding the Next Breakout Pitcher part 2In my previous piece, I found 21 pitchers who showed a marked, sustained improvement between 2003 and 2008. These pitchers had a big jump in their FIP, and they sustained this new level of performance after their breakout year. In order to find players who put up similar numbers in 2008 to the averages of our breakout pitchers just before they made the leap, I'm going to look at standard deviations. In 2008, there were 142 pitchers who threw for 100 or more innings. Using the Excel function =STDEV, I can find the standard deviation of the key statistics across the sample. What I will then do is add up each player's total standard deviations from the mean of our breakout pitchers in the stats K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and GB%, and see who totals the smallest deviation from the means. As I had mentioned, there were essentially two types of pitchers who were on that list: ground ball specialists and power pitchers with low walk rates. Looking at the ground ball specialists, we have the following stats:
The pitcher most similar in 2008 to our ground ball breakout stars: Paul Maholm. Ouch. This is one of those times where I wish I could just make something up, and pretend someone else bubbled to the top. Surely, if I were picking my own favorite breakout candidate for 2009, I'd probably steer clear of a guy on the Pirates. But let's give him a chance and take a look at his numbers. In 2008, he averaged 6.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 54 percent GB%. Really his whole career, he's been incredibly stable in terms of strikeouts and ground ball rate. He did have a nice little epiphany in 2007 where he learned to bring down his walk rate a bit. And he's pretty young, only 26 years old. Still, the only way I could rationally see him becoming a star groundballer next year is if he develops a new pitch, or throws a lot more breaking balls. Below are the stats for the power pitchers who broke out to become stars over the past five seasons:
Four pitchers quickly bubble to the top as being quite similar to those lines: Shaun Marcum, Bronson Arroyo, Dustin McGowan, and John Danks. Arroyo is probably too old to have a breakout season—we've seen so much of him in this decade that it's hard to imagine him breaking away from any of his past numbers. McGowan is an interesting case, because he had great 2007 numbers, including a 53 percent ground ball rate. Following it up with 41 percent in 2008, along with almost a full strikeout fewer per nine innings pitched, makes me less optimistic about him. Marcum and Danks are my two favorites here, because in their cases the numbers back up intuition and observation. Except in Marcum's case, he's due for season-ending surgery, forcing him to sit out 2009 while he recovers. Still, Marcum has had a stable couple of years. His strikeout rate improved a bit last year, while his walk rate remained the same. What interests me about him is the low percentage of fastballs that he throws; in 2008 they only represented 39 percent of his pitches. He's also shown improvements each year in the rate at which batters swing at pitches outside the zone. Clearly his pitch selection is beginning to baffle hitters a bit more. If the surgery leads to a drop in velocity though, I'd guess he's finished. We've seen how Pedro Martinez, one of the most dominating pitchers in the history of baseball, has fared after a drop in velocity forced him to rely on junkballing. He had a few good years in the National League, but is toast at this point. Danks is pretty clearly my favorite of the four. The youngest of the group, he's only 23 years old. In 2008—his second season in the majors—he improved his K/9 by about .3 and his BB/9 by almost a full 1.0. His GB% went from 35 to 43 percent, and batters against him swung at pitches outside the zone 28 percent of the time (up from 18 percent in his rookie season). The biggest warning sign I can find in his 2008 stats is a slight increase in the rate at which he gives up line drives. Still, all other signs point to him becoming a star pitcher in the near future, so look to pick him up maybe a round earlier than you normally would—he may be one of the big draft-day bargains of 2009. Posted by Michael Lerra at 1:07am (0) Comments Breakout party: Delmon Young
Delmon Young is a guy who has seemingly been around for years (at least in my mind) and always seems to disappoint the fantasy owner who drafts him. Looking at the records, though, Young has only played two full seasons, was still just 22 years old this past year, and doesn't actually post numbers that are all that terrible: +------+-----+------------+-----+-------+----+-----+----+----+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | BA | HR | RBI | R | SB | +------+-----+------------+-----+-------+----+-----+----+----+ | 2007 | 21 | Devil Rays | 645 | 0.288 | 13 | 93 | 65 | 10 | | 2008 | 22 | Twins | 575 | 0.290 | 10 | 69 | 80 | 14 | +------+-----+------------+-----+-------+----+-----+----+----+ He's actually been pretty consistent, but fantasy owners always seem to be looking for more. He has been hyped as such a fantastic raw talent, I doubt it would surprise some people to see him explode for 30 homers and 30 steals one of these years. While some owners have soured on him, almost every league will have at least one owner willing to draft Young hoping for that explosion. Will 2009 be the year we finally see it, though? Power+------+-----+------------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | HR | tHR | HR/FB | tHR/FB | nHR/FB | RAW | OF FB% | +------+-----+------------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+ | 2006 | 20 | Devil Rays | 126 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 3.7 | 26 | | 2007 | 21 | Devil Rays | 645 | 13 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 1.3 | 30 | | 2008 | 22 | Twins | 575 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 27 | +------+-----+------------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+If you're new to THT Fantasy Focus and are unfamiliar with True Home Runs (tHR) or any of the other stats I'm using, check out our quick reference guide. These stats provide a much clearer picture of a player's talent, so it's well worth taking a couple of minutes to learn them. That big breakout has been expected ever since Young had scouts drooling over him in high school, earning him the number one selection in the 2003 amateur draft. Upon drafting him, then-Devil Rays scouting director Cam Bonifay had this to say: [Young] is one of the finest power hitters our scouts have evaluated, not only this year but over the years. He’s the kind of guy that you don’t get out of your seat and go buy a hot dog when you know he’s coming to the plate. You want to stay there and watch him hit. He lights up your eyes.” Young went on to hit 25 homers in Low-A, and then followed up with 20 homers (in just 330 at-bats) in Double-A as a 19 year-old. That's incredible stuff, but Young has never been able to duplicate that success as he has been promoted to the higher levels. He has always been young for his level, though (and honestly, still is), so it remains entirely possible that he finally catches up with his potential as he moves up the age curve. True Home Runs, though, thinks Young's power numbers have been right about where they should be. In fact, this past year, his Park Neutral HR/FB (nHR/FB) was actually two points below his actual HR/FB and down four points from his 2007 nHR/FB. The Metrodome seemed to help him, as he might have only hit 6 or 7 home runs as a Ray this year. Simply put, it's not as if Young has lots of power and he's just been getting unlucky. That isn't to say, however, that he won't finally have that breakout. True Home Runs doesn't factor in age or progression; it simply attempts to neutralize luck. So if Young adds some muscle, improves his swing, or simply ages "quickly," he very well could see a breakout next year. It would also help if he started hitting more fly balls. He'll never become an elite power hitter without doing that. So while Young's 2009 tHR projection should be higher than his 2008 level, it won't be incredibly higher since he really hasn't been unlucky. What you've seen of Young up until now is all him. This differs from a player like James Loney who was both unlucky and is on the upswing age-wise. Young only has the latter working for him. Contact+------+-----+------------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | BA | tBA | CT% | BABIP | mBABIP | LD% | BIP/HR | BIP/tHR | +------+-----+------------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ | 2006 | 20 | Devil Rays | 126 | 0.317 | 0.294 | 81 | 0.374 | 0.344 | 26 | 34 | 34 | | 2007 | 21 | Devil Rays | 645 | 0.288 | 0.297 | 80 | 0.343 | 0.348 | 21 | 40 | 32 | | 2008 | 22 | Twins | 575 | 0.290 | 0.293 | 82 | 0.341 | 0.344 | 17 | 47 | 47 | +------+-----+------------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ Young has a very unique blend of contact skills. Before I make too many comments, though, check out his plate discipline stats as well: +------+-----+------------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | CT% | JUDGMENT X | A/P | BAT CONTROL | BAD BALL | +------+-----+------------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ | 2006 | 20 | Devil Rays | 126 | 81 | 91 | 2.32 | 88 | 54 | | 2007 | 21 | Devil Rays | 645 | 80 | 100 | 1.79 | 85 | 51 | | 2008 | 22 | Twins | 575 | 82 | 101 | 1.41 | 86 | 57 | +------+-----+------------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ His Aggressiveness/Passivity is reminiscent of Vladimir Guerrero, who likes to swing at essentially everything. Unlike Vlad, though, Young makes more mistakes in judgment to begin with and can't make up for it with an outstanding ability to hit balls out the zone (Bad Ball). In fact, he only reached a league average level this year. Still, he manages to keep his contact rate at a respectable (league average) level due to being solid (though unspectacular) with his Judgment, Bat Control, and Bad Ball hitting, in addition to the fact that being too aggressive is better than too passive (as far as contact rate goes, anyway). Added to this rare mix of super aggressive, moderate contact skill is an excellent ability to hit the ball with authority when he does make contact. His BABIP is consistently over .340, and being so young, Marcel only sees improvement. A repeat of the 17 percent line drive rate could hurt him, though, so keep an eye on that in the early going. Luckily, a bounce-back is more likely than a repeat. Overall, Young's true batting average talent seems to be right around .295. His True Batting Averages have matched his actual batting averages over the past two years, and more of the same should be expected in 2009. Of course, Young has significant upside here if he can ever become more like Vlad in some plate discipline category, be it Judgment, Bat Control, or Bad Ball Hitting. Speed+------+-----+------------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+-----+-----------+-------------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | SB | SBA | SBO% | SBA% | SB% | FAN SPEED | FAN BALLOTS | +------+-----+------------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+-----+-----------+-------------+ | 2006 | 20 | Devil Rays | 126 | 2 | 4 | 0.237 | 13 | 50 | N/A | N/A | | 2007 | 21 | Devil Rays | 645 | 10 | 13 | 0.238 | 8 | 77 | 57 | 31 | | 2008 | 22 | Twins | 575 | 14 | 19 | 0.257 | 12 | 74 | 57 | 29 | +------+-----+------------+-----+----+-----+-------+------+-----+-----------+-------------+ While Young has always been praised for his athleticism, scouts rarely claimed he had much better than average speed. Tango's Fan Scouting Report grades seem to confirm this. While Young positively contributes with steals, he isn't a beast by any means and probably never will be. He attempts to steal often enough that pitchers have to watch him, but he isn't any Carlos Beltran when it comes to how successful those attempts are. He stays a little above average and is successful enough not to hurt his team, but unless his speed improves as he ages or his instincts somehow get a little better (or the sample size we're looking at isn't indicative of his actual talent level), I don't see too much stolen base upside for Young. I see him topping out at 20 one of these years. Concluding thoughtsTo recap, while Young does have breakout potential, I'd much prefer a guy like Loney whose "breakout" is more certain because his true talent level was masked in 2008. Young is a young guy who is a good athlete and a scout favorite—and has breakout potential on this basis—but improved numbers in 2009 will have to come from legitimate skill growth or good fortune. A guy like Loney may only need to see some regression for his 2009 numbers to top those from 2008. As a pure percentage play—holding all else constant—I'm taking the "Loney" group over the "Delmon" group on Draft Day. Posted by Derek Carty at 1:51am (0) Comments Tuesday, November 25, 2008Replacement level theory appliedKeith Woolner's Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) system, first developed in the late 1990s, has come quite a long way. It has gone from respected within the sabermetric baseball community, to becoming somewhat mainstream—even though it is often mentioned only by traditional stat lovers ridiculing the sabermetric movement. Whatever the case, you should get familiar with replacement level theory if you're not already. If you know a thing about VORP, I give you permission to jump down to the next section since I am going to briefly describe its methodology. VORP explained(V)alue (O)ver (R)eplacement (P)layer. The key thing is understanding what a replacement player is. A replacement player is expected to produce at the replacement player level. The best way I can explain replacement level is by creating the following hypothetical situation: There are 30 teams and only one shortstop per team. (That makes 30 starting shortstops.) No team has a bench shortstop and all non-starting shortstops are placed in a pool from which any team can sign them, but only if its starting shortstop cannot play due to injury or some other reason. One starting shortstop does get injured, so that team signs the 31st-best shortstop to "replace" its starter. His expected production is replacement level. It is the baseline from which all other production or value should be judged. The difference in production between the starting shortstop and his replacement is the starting shortstop's value over a replacement player. That is a somewhat simplistic model of how replacement player works. In major league baseball, determining replacement level is not as easy as finding the 31st best shortstop, but that is the general concept. If you would like to read Woolner's original Introduction to VORP, click the link. My example does resemble a fantasy baseball league closely, so you should begin to see how I am going to translate the concept of replacement player to fantasy baseball, right after I clarify a few things. First, replacement level differs for every position. You would expect more offensive production from a backup first baseman than a backup catcher. A replacement level player has a way of getting confused with an average level player. Read this comment thread in which Derek Carty participated over at Fantasy Baseball Generals. If you can follow what is being said, the difference between an average player and a replacement level player will never be unclear again. VORP theory appliedSo now you know the concept of the replacement level player. The next step is to apply it to your fantasy baseball league, specifically by adopting a strategy based on what type of players are replacement level in your league. In a fantasy baseball league, replacement level players are those you can simply add from waivers or the free agent pool. They are in abundance and cost nothing to acquire. Not every fantasy baseball league's replacement level player is the same. In fact, leagues have different levels of replacement players due to two main factors: the number of teams in the league and the number of starting roster positions. That is not a breakthrough statement. Everyone has realized this, even if they have not stated it as explicitly. You may have participated in leagues where borderline all-stars are free agents and others where you have resorted to adding borderline starting players because everyone else is taken. "Deep" and "shallow" are the mainstream classifications of leagues, and each type of league requires a different general strategy. Shallow leaguesShallow leagues are my favorites against inexperienced opponents because they are most easily exploited. In shallow leagues, it is a good idea to a draft a lot of risky, high-upside players since if they do not pan out, there are plenty of good free agents you can add to replace the underachieving player. In shallow leagues, having a deep roster of good players is not desirable, because good players are not far off from replacement level players. The goal, then, is to get as top heavy as possible and acquire great players, at the expense of depth. Your depth will come from the free agent pool, which should abound with players good enough to perform admirably when plugged into a starting role. The way to get a solid group of great players is through trading. Do two-for-one trades where you get the "one." Even three-for-ones and four-for-ones are not out of the question, depending on how shallow your league is. An example of such a trade is Derek Jeter and Dan Haren for Jimmy Rollins, and you are obviously acquiring Rollins. To fill the empty roster spot, you now have the freedom to add somebody from the free agent pool and in this case you'd probably target a pitcher. Since the league is shallow, there should be some good pitchers available for adding. In this way, your team can become filled with elite players that will lead to a championship. Deep leaguesDeep leagues, ones in which there are no good players in the free agent pool, are much tougher to play and cannot be exploited in the same way as shallow leagues. Generally speaking, you should be looking to take fewer risks because there is no abundant free agent pool to fall back onto; instead, you will be left trying to make something out of a barren landscape. Not an easy task. So, taking less risks is a good idea, but with how unpredictable baseball is (especially because of injuries) don't go crazy sacrificing talent to get supposed "safe" players, because there is no such thing. While having a deep roster is important, I would not trade away elite players to increase depth. Hope that your riskier picks pan out and be very aggressive in free agency to maximize whatever value comes out of there. A lot of things have to go right to win a deep league. Deep and shallow leaguesYes, a league can be both deep and shallow at the same time. Some positions can be shallow while others can be deep because of the second factor mentioned above: starting roster positions. Some leagues have two catcher spots while some only have one, for example. In the former league, a replacement level catcher will be significantly worse than his counterpart in the latter. Because of this, you should heavily target catchers in the second league. This is basically the same concept as position scarcity, where you value certain positions over other others based on talent, but there is a difference between the two. Position scarcity is all about average production from a position. If shortstops have an average OPS of .800 and second basemen's average OPS is .750, position scarcity would tell you to value second basemen over shortstops. Replacement level theory deals more with talent distribution. If a replacement level shortstop is expected to post a .700 OPS and a replacement level second basemen is expected to put up a .725 OPS, then shortstops would be more heavily targeted since a shortstops would be much harder to replace than a second baseman. The two strategies do not contradict one another, so you do not have to choose one over the other. Both can influence your rankings and that is what I advocate, a mixture of both. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
