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 Monday, December 15, 2008Introducing: THT Fantasy CommentsSince the inception of THT Fantasy, we've always used BallHype to allow readers to comment on articles. We've been thinking recently, though, that it would be beneficial to our readers if comments were coordinated in-house. Now, you'll be able to post comments to THT Fantasy articles and see what others are saying about the article without leaving the page. Hopefully this will provide more information for you and allow you to easily see how our writers elaborate on their original ideas based on the comments readers provide. To check what articles have been commented on, you can either look on the article page itself or in the left column of any page, which has a listing of the most recent comments. We're all pretty excited about this, and hopefully you guys think it will be beneficial. If you have any questions, feel free to e-mail or comment (!). Posted by Derek Carty at 5:40pm (3) Comments Tuesday, December 16, 2008Fantasy fallout: Laird to DetroitA ton of moves have been made in the past week and just about every one has an impact on the fantasy side of things. Although it is tough to cover them all, we're trying to analyze a large percentage of them. Today, I am going to look at a deal from last week, when the Rangers deal sent catcher Gerald Laird to Detroit for two minor league pitchers. Although Laird was the only major leaguer included in the transaction, several players—Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden, Max Ramirez and Brandon Inge—were directly affected. Fallout: LairdWe will start by looking at Laird, who will be the Tigers' starting catcher in 2009. +--------+---------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+ | Season | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | +--------+---------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+ | 2006 | Rangers | 78 | 260 | 7 | 46 | 22 | 3 | 0.296 | | 2007 | Rangers | 120 | 448 | 9 | 48 | 47 | 6 | 0.224 | | 2008 | Rangers | 95 | 381 | 6 | 54 | 41 | 2 | 0.276 | +--------+---------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+
As you can see, Laird does not have much speed and does not hit for much power. He does, however, have the ability to hit for a good average at times. Laird is not a .300 hitter like he was in 2006 nor is the .220 hitter of 2007. Laird's true average ability is around .260, and I'd expect him to hit near that in 2009. The move from Rangers Ballpark to Comerica Park will not noticeably affect Laird's production. Both parks were hitter-friendly in 2008, but both also have jumped around in the rankings—becoming pitcher-friendly in years past. The talent level around Laird should not change much, either. The Rangers did lead the American League in runs per game last year at 5.56, but the Tigers were also a potent offensive group, putting up more than five runs a game. So Laird's new supporting cast should not negatively affect him. This trade does help boost Laird's stats, though, mostly because in Detroit he will be the bona fide No. 1 catcher. Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski reportedly said of Laird, "We have talked to him already and we will give him the opportunity to catch a lot of ballgames." With regular playing time, Laird's run and RBI totals figure to increase some, though not dramatically. Think an extra 10 runs and RBI. With that type of production Laird can be a serviceable second catcher in 2009, but not someone you should be targeting in your drafts. Laird was expendable to the Rangers mostly because they have not one, not two, but three promising young catchers in their system: Jarrod Saltalamaccia, Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez. Fallout: Saltalamacchia+---------+------------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+ | Season | Team | AB | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | +---------+------------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+ | 2006 | Braves(AA) | 313 | 9 | 30 | 39 | 1 | 0.230 | | 2007 | ATL-TEX | 308 | 11 | 39 | 33 | 0 | 0.266 | | 2008 | Rangers | 298 | 3 | 27 | 26 | 2 | 0.253 | +---------+------------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+ Saltalamacchia will turn 24 in 2009, in what will be his third season in the majors. Although Saltalamacchia enjoyed success in Single-A and for a brief time in 2007 Double-A ball, he has yet to translate that success into the major leagues. That he was jumped straight from Double-A to the majors did not help his development. +--------+---------+------+------+-------+------+--------+------+ | Season | Team | BB% | K% | BABIP | LD% | HR/FB% | CT% | +--------+---------+------+------+-------+------+--------+------+ | 2007 | ATL-TEX | 5.8 | 24.4 | 0.320 | 16.7 | 12.0 | 73.6 | | 2008 | Rangers | 13.5 | 37.4 | 0.388 | 27.2 | 5.8 | 70.2 | +--------+---------+------+------+-------+------+--------+------+ Note: The contact percentage (CT%) I am using is the one Fangraphs shows, which is per pitch instead of per at bat. The most concerning aspect of Salty's game is his inability to make contact. He made contact with only 70 percent of the pitches he swung at (league average about 82 percent) and stuck out in 37 percent of his at-bats, one of the worst percentages in the majors. If you are going to strike out in over one-third of your plate appearances, it is a good idea to walk a lot and hit a lot of fly balls for home runs. Salty did actually walk a lot because of his patience at the plate, but did not hit a high percentage of fly balls for home runs. In 2007 he posted a respectable 12 percent HR/FB percentage, but in 2008 that number sliced in half to 6 percent. Saltalamacchia may not have been good at making contact with the ball, but he certainly knew how to smack the crap outta it. His video game-esque 27.2 line drive percentage somewhat justifies his inflated .388 BABIP. However in 2009 it would be unwise to expect a repeat line drive rate, therefore making it unwise to expect a similar BABIP. A downward shift in BABIP is not going to help his already distressing batting average. Bottom line, if Salty needs a .388 BABIP to hit for a .253 average, he will never consistently hit for a good average. Still, Saltalamacchia is young and has the potential to improve his skills. Fallout: TeagardenTaylor Teagarden, besides an awesome name, does have some meaningful stuff going for him. The soon-to-be 25-year-old catcher is cut from the same mold as Salty. Both have good eyes and power potential, and they strike out too often. I'm not going to go into as much detail with Teagarden because I do not believe he will get the starting job in 2009. If you do look at his minor league numbers, he did perform well in Single- and Double-A, but struggled mightily in Triple-A. His name gets thrown out due mostly to the 53 plate appearances he had in the majors in 2008, in which he hit six home runs. Nobody seems to be taking note of the 215 Triple-A plate appearances he accumulated in 2008, hitting only seven homers. Apparently, Teagarden does play spectacular defense, but if I were the Rangers, I would start him in the minors in 2009 to let him develop his offensive game a little more. Fallout: RamirezMax Ramirez, the only one of these catchers without a last name to comment on (although I just commented about the lack of a comment), is young (24) and, like his Ranger counterparts, succeeded in the lower levels of the minors. Ramirez had a tremendous year in Double-A in 2008. In 280 plate appearances, he batted .354 and blasted 17 home runs. A common theme in this article, Ramirez struck out plenty—in 23 percent of his trips to the plate—and also walked—drawing walks 13 percent of the time. In very limited time in Triple-A and in the majors, though, Ramirez was overmatched and his numbers reflect that. Final thoughtsI expect that Salty will start out as the Rangers' starting catcher in 2009, but I am skeptical about his ability to produce at a high level in the majors. His leash will be short as a starter, with Ramirez and Teagarden banging on the door behind him. This is pure speculation on my part; several different scenarios can play out. One of the three remaining Texas catchers can be traded—several rumors are circulating involving Saltalamacchia and Ramirez. It will not be until spring training that we know who will be the team's starting catcher, and even then the situation can change without notice. Overall, this trade benefits Laird and all three remaining Texas catchers because of the increase in playing time it presents. One player it does not help: Brandon Inge. Inge did it all for the Tigers last year with his glove, playing catcher, third base, and even some outfield, but did nothing with his bat. With the addition of Laird, Inge figures to be squeezed out of playing time significantly in 2009. Oh, and I almost forgot about the two pitchers the Rangers received in the deal, Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo. They figure to benefit from this trade as I would imagine it is easy to move up through the Rangers' farm system as a pitcher. Posted by Paul Singman at 1:01am (5) Comments Wednesday, December 17, 2008Points vs rotisserieAn intrepid reader, Dave, sent me a great question and comment about the relative merits of points leagues and rotisserie leagues. He felt, and brief investigation agrees, that points leagues are often left out of the fantasy discussion despite the fact that different players and strategies are recommended for each. A points league rewards stats with points and then the owner with the most points wins. I’ll quote Dave’s league: “Our points league scoring is pretty standard. We did some tweaks to reward OBP, which basically means that we deduct for ABs, but it's 1 point for a single, 2 for a double, 1 for a RBI, 1 for a run, 2 for an SB, 1 for a BB, etc. For pitchers, it's 5 for a W, 5 for a QS, 10 for a S, 1 for a K, 1 for each out, -1 for each walk, hit, or ER, and -5 for a loss.” Which type of league, points or rotisserie, is preferable is largely up to you and your league. A points league provides two big differences: players' values change, and a team’s overall ranking depends a lot less on the performance of other teams. To see how player values change, let’s turn to a simple trade-off scenario. Normally, when economists discuss trade-offs, we use a beer versus pizza example and the end result is that you trade some of your beer for some of your friend’s pizza so that you have some of each and not all of one. If you must know, this is due to something called Diminishing Marginal Utility—the more you have of something, the less you want an additional piece. Eventually, you’ve had so much beer that you’d prefer to have a first slice of pizza than an additional beer. A rotisserie league is like a beer and pizza league because if you lead in, say, RBIs, and are behind in stolen bases, you’re likely to want to trade some of the former to get some of the latter. In a points league, to abstract for a second, there is no diminishing marginal utility. It is more like Miller Lite vs Coors Lite—you like each one equally and you’ll buy which ever one is cheaper. No matter how much Coors you already have, you’ll keep buying Coors as long as it is cheaper. In a points league, you’re not going to trade RBIs for stolen bases just because you don’t have many stolen bases. What are the practical effects of this difference? In a points league, a trade of like-for-like, such as one outfielder for another, should only happen because the two owners involved in the trade have different expectations about these outfielders’ future performances. Otherwise, there’s no reason to trade an Adam Dunn for a Carl Crawford. A points league also gives the commissioner more control over the relative value of different stats. In rotisserie, each chosen stat is equally valued. So, if your points league wanted to discourage the common, all-reliever strategy but still keep saves as a stat, you could just down weight the number of points that saves get. Of course, if you’re not careful, you could end-up over-rewarding a particular stat, thereby encouraging teams to fill up on, say, home run hitters. Also note that in points leagues, your strategy is more independent of other owners’ strategies. The value of a particular stat to you is independent of how much of that stat you think other owners are going to get (however it is not independent of the availability of that stat on the waiver-wire). So if a lot of teams are drafting or auctioning closers, the remaining closers are not more valuable than they would otherwise be. In a rotisserie league, scarcity of closers can drive up the price of saves. Lastly, points leagues provide more avenues for catching up to the leading teams in your league. Furthermore, tanking teams no longer hurt your chances of doing so. To catch up, all you need to do is get sufficiently more scoring stats than the leading team (and any other team ahead of you). It doesn’t matter which scoring stat you do that in though. To summarize, points leagues mean less scope for trades, more control over the value of particular stats, less scope for strategy and more opportunities for late-season comebacks. Posted by Jonathan Halket at 1:07am (13) Comments Fantasy fallout: Kerry Wood to close for Indians
This week, Kerry Wood officially signed with the Indians after passing his physicals and getting approval from the bigwigs in Cleveland. At this time last year, I think most fantasy owners were pulling for Carlos Marmol to take the ninth inning job for the Cubs. When we found out that it was Wood's job, those fantasy owners still drafted Marmol, speculating that Wood wouldn't last long. Not only did Wood last, however, he put up a tremendous season. Check out his fantasy line: +------+-----+---------+---+------+------+----+----+ | YEAR | AGE | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K | SV | +------+-----+---------+---+------+------+----+----+ | 2008 | 30 | 66.3333 | 5 | 3.26 | 1.09 | 84 | 34 | +------+-----+---------+---+------+------+----+----+ Even more impressive were his peripherals. Let's check them out now and see how they'll play in the American League and Jacobs Field. Fallout: WoodFor sections that are divided, the left section shows his numbers with the Cubs and the right shows his league and park-adjusted numbers—essentially his numbers if he had pitched as an Indian. Suggestions for improving the clarity of these tables are welcome. +------+------+------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-------+-----------+---------+ | YEAR | IP | ERA | QERA | K/9 | K/BB RI | xGB% | BABIP | HR/FB | +------+------+------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-------+-----------+---------+ | 2007 | 24.3 | 3.33 | 4.66/4.88 | 8.9/ 8.5 | 0.29/0.13 | 34/35 | .286/.276 | 0.0/0.0 | | 2008 | 66.3 | 3.26 | 2.72/2.83 | 11.4/11.1 | 1.38/1.26 | 39/41 | .319/.305 | 4.6/3.4 | +------+------+------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-------+-----------+---------+Note: I use QERA as opposed to the usual LIPS ERA because it is much easier to compute and is similar enough to LIPS for our purposes. Overall, the league change doesn't figure to impact Wood too badly. His QERA last year would have risen from an excellent 2.72 to a still-excellent 2.83. Furthermore, his actual ERA probably would have dropped because his BABIP and HR/FB both would have significantly improved. We found that moving to the AL actually helps HR/FB a tiny bit, and the park differences between Wrigley and Jacobs are quite large (22 percent for HR/FB!). Wood will see his strikeout numbers dip just a bit (this year it would have been the difference between 84 Ks and roughly 81.5 Ks), but it's nothing that should impact his fantasy value much. A K/9 above 11.0 is still incredibly valuable. His BBs will also rise just a tiny bit, but the decrease in BABIP should offset it for WHIP purposes (Wood posted a 1.06 DIPS WHIP this year, for those curious). To top things off, Wood should be able to induce a fair amount more ground balls. Warnings While the league change figures to be much friendlier for Wood than it would be on most pitchers (due to the beneficial park effects), there are still two very big warnings that we need to take seriously: (1) We're looking at just one year of excellent data. Wood was pretty bad in 2007 (albeit in a very small sample), but that's all we have of Wood-the-reliever over the past three years. In fact, we have just 44 innings combined between 2006 and 2007. Having to rely more heavily on data from before that (Wood was 27 years old and in his physical prime in 2005), Wood's projections will be much less certain than other pitchers, especially since he was a starter for most of 2005 and for his entire career leading up to then. I should note, however, that Wood's PITCHf/x data this year looks quite promising. He showed an excellent fastball and a great curveball while relying much, much less on the mediocre (at best) slider he displayed in 2007. 2) Wood is still an injury risk. Sure, he had one relatively healthy year, but the guy missed the vast majority of both 2006 and 2007 and has a long history of injuries: 2004: Triceps tendinitis 2005: Strained right shoulder that required surgery 2006: Rotator cuff tear 2007: Shoulder stiffness And these aren't Ben Sheets, unrelated, fluky injuries; these are all arm-related injuries. While Wood had a healthy 2008, he is far from being out of the woods. Overall, Wood had an excellent statistical 2008 and looked equally excellent stuff-wise. We are looking at a small sample, though, and he has a long, ugly injury history, so we need to be a little cautious with him. Fallout: Indians bullpenThe guy who suffers most from this signing is Jensen Lewis. Had the Indians not been able to sign a closer, Lewis would have opened 2009 with the job and could have held it all year. His skills were a bit shaky in 2008 after a terrific 2007, but he still would have been a great end-game draft pick. He still makes a decent speculative pick given Wood's injury history, but his value takes a serious nosedive. Fallout: Cubs bullpenThe Cubs had already expressed their intention to let Wood leave, but this makes things official. Marmol should enter 2009 as closer, thrive, and be a mainstay for years to come. Fallout: Closer marketWith Francisco Rodriguez and now Wood off the market, Brian Fuentes is the last of the (perceived) Big Three closers left on the market. Unfortunately, there don't appear to be many big-market teams that will pay him off. The teams that still might consider a closer include the Tigers (who have said they really aren't looking for one anymore), the Angels (who really don't need one with Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo), the Dodgers (who really don't need one with Jonathan Broxton), the Brewers (who probably aren't willing to spend much), the Padres (who wouldn't spend much either), the Mariners, the Cardinals and (maybe) the Rays. Overall, the Cardinals might be the most likely destination for Fuentes at this point, followed by the Angels and Dodgers. While it might not be apparent now, this current setup is very bad for Chris Perez's value in St. Louis. Tony LaRussa's push for an "established" closer means he likely doesn't trust Perez, and the lack of legitimate suitors for closers means there's an excellent chance the Cards get someone, even if it isn't Fuentes. St. Louis would be a decent landing location for Fuentes, but then where do Trevor Hoffman, Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, Jason Isringhausen and Takashi Saito go? Cruz, Saito, Lyon and Izzy might have to settle for setup roles if they sign quickly, though if things play out a certain way they might not have to. As it stands right now, the Angels could feign interest in Fuentes and let the Cards eventually sign him. That would leave very few teams willing to spend money, and they could pick up Hoffman pretty cheap. That leaves the Dodgers and a whole bunch of teams without much money to spend. Those teams could simple pick away at the likes of Cruz, Saito, Lyon, Izzy and maybe a few others, give them short term deals, maybe even have them compete with their in-house options, and see what happens. Just my musings on the subject, but these kinds of scenarios are what will determine the fantasy values of a number of potentially fantasy-important relievers. I'd surely take Saito or Cruz late in a draft if they were competing for a ninth-inning role, and for those drafting this early, knowing that Perez's value has quietly plummeted is a very important bit of information. Posted by Derek Carty at 3:00am (4) Comments Friday, December 19, 2008Should fantasy leagues mimic real-life baseball?There was a comment on Jonathan Halket's "Points vs rotisserie" article that reminded me of a question I always seem to get from readers around this time of year. I was going to post a comment to Jonathan's article, but it seemed a little too far removed from the discussion, so I'm giving it its own post. The e-mails I get usually go something like this: I'm the commissioner of a roto league and would like to make it more representative of real baseball (or use stats that are more reflective of true talent). What categories would you recommend using to achieve this goal? My answer always comes back, "why?" Why would we, as fantasy owners, want to replace, say, ERA with LIPS ERA as a category? Isn't the whole purpose of using a stat like LIPS ERA to gain an advantage over the competition? While there are many more followers of sabermetrics than there were even a few years ago, it is still easy to find owners who know nothing about these more advanced statistics and simply go by hunches or surface numbers from past years. The whole point of LIPS is to estimate ERA while eliminating the luck factor, something our competitors can't do by looking at ERA itself. We gain a relative advantage by looking at stats like LIPS when our competitors don't know to look at them. If we make these stats their own category, though, then our simple-minded competition also will be looking at them because that's what they do. They focus solely on the categories that matter and little on the underlying numbers. How do you predict ERA? With LIPS ERA. How do you predict LIPS ERA? With LIPS ERA (essentially). Looking at the underlying numbers is what gives us our advantage; if we make those underlying numbers the actual categories, that advantage disappears. What do you think about this? Posted by Derek Carty at 1:02am (21) Comments Monday, December 22, 2008Early look at the ninth inningThere has been a lot of movement on the closer's market so far this winter, so I thought today would be a good time to take a quick look at how this has affected each team in baseball. Who looks like a great late-round pick, and who figures to disappoint? Here's a breakdown (as organized as I could be) of how I see each team's situation. If you have any questions, feel free to e-mail me or comment. Current situations+--------------+---------------------+-----------------------+-------------------+ | TEAM | CLOSER | OTHER POSSIBILITY? | FA POSSIBILITY? | +--------------+---------------------+-----------------------+-------------------+ | Angels | Jose Arredondo/Scot Shields | Possible | | Athletics | Joey Devine | Brad Ziegler | Unlikely | | Blue Jays | B.J. Ryan | Trade/Scott Downs | Unlikely | | Indians | Kerry Wood | Entrenched | Not Possible | | Mariners | Brandon Morrow | Several* | Possible | | Orioles | George Sherrill | Trade/Ray/Johnson? | Possible if trade | | Rangers | Frank Francisco/C.J. Wilson | Possible | | Rays | Dan Wheeler | Percival/Balfour | Unlikely | | Red Sox | Jonathan Papelbon | Entrenched | Not Possible | | Royals | Joakim Soria | Entrenched | Not Possible | | Tigers | Fernando Rodney | Joel Zumaya | Possible | | Twins | Joe Nathan | Entrenched | Not Possible | | White Sox | Bobby Jenks | Trade/Several** | Unlikely | | Yankees | Mariano Rivera | Entrenched | Not Possible | | Astros | Jose Valverde | Trade/Doug Brocail | Unlikely | | Braves | Mike Gonazalez | Secure | Unlikely | | Brewers | Villanueve/Riske/McClung/Julio | Possible | | Cardinals | Chris Perez | Very risky (FA) | Likely | | Cubs | Carlos Marmol | Entrenched | Unlikely | | Diamondbacks | Chad Qualls | Tony Pena/Jon Rauch | Unlikely | | Dodgers | Jonathan Broxton | Secure | Possible | | Giants | Brian Wilson | Secure | Very unlikely | | Marlins | Matt Lindstrom | Secure | Unlikely | | Mets | Francisco Rodriguez | Entrenched*** | Not Possible | | Nationals | Joel Hanrahan | Very secure | Unlikely | | Padres | Heath Bell | Very secure | Unlikely | | Phillies | Brad Lidge | Entrenched | Not Possible | | Pirates | Matt Capps | Very secure**** | Possible if trade | | Reds | Francisco Cordero | Entrenched | Not Possible | | Rockies | Huston Street | Manny Corpas | Very unlikely | +--------------+---------------------+-----------------------+-------------------+* Brandon Morrow would close if things stay as they are, but if a starter is moved he could stay in the rotation and there would be a battle for the ninth inning. ** There's talk of maybe trading Bobby Jenks. If he is moved, I'd say Octavio Dotel would be the favorite to close, with Matt Thornton and Scott Linebrink also options. *** Francisco Rodriguez will definitely close games, but manager Jerry Manuel said J.J. Putz could also get a lot of opportunities. I'll believe it when I see it. **** Like Jenks, Matt Capps could get traded, though it isn't the most likely scenario. If he is traded, John Grabow might be the favorite to close. Current free agentsHere are a list of guys who are free agents and could find themselves closing games in 2009 (or are at least more likely to than their free agent peers). And here are the teams who are currently in the market for a closer (or could conceivably be in the market for one):
As the rest of the teams looking for closers would be small-market teams only able to make small investments, the remaining closer options could sign on cheaply with these teams or with a bigger market team for more money but as a setup man. In the first scenario, these guys would be draftable but would have shorter leashes than they might other years with bigger contracts. In the second, their value would depend on the closer ahead of them. Closing thoughtsIt'll be very interesting to see how this all plays out, but hopefully this was a succinct explanation of where things stand as of right now and will allow you to start honing in on potential sleepers for 2009. As you know, I am a big proponent of waiting on closers in mixed leagues, so here are the guys I'm currently taking at the end of mock drafts:
If you end up with three of these guys, I think you will be in great shape going into the year. Of course there's still a lot of off-season left, but right now I'd be very happy with that. In the recent Rotoworld Mock Draft, I was able to get Devine, Hoffman, and Wheeler after Round 19. As the season approaches, Hoffman's value could go up if he signs on as a closer (which I expect him to). I'm generally staying away from these guys, at least for now, unless they are the only guys left on the board (in which case I would definitely take Perez and might take Lindstrom, Sherrill, and possibly Zumaya or Villanueva but leave the rest):
I might also consider Scot Shields, Manny Corpas, or J.J. Putz if my preferred guys are gone, my sleepers at other positions are gone, and the league setup warrants. Posted by Derek Carty at 12:10am (6) Comments Tuesday, December 23, 2008Consistency meter: Conor Jackson
It is time for another edition of Consistency Meter! The player we will be looking at today is... Conor Jackson. Jackson was a high pick in the 2003 draft at 13th overall and moved up the minors with relative ease. He got his first taste of MLB action late in 2005 and by 2006 he secured the D-backs' starting first baseman's job, which he has sort of held since. +------+-----+--------------+-----+-------+----+-----+----+----+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | BA | HR | RBI | R | SB | +------+-----+--------------+-----+-------+----+-----+----+----+ | 2006 | 23 | Diamondbacks | 485 | 0.291 | 15 | 79 | 75 | 1 | | 2007 | 24 | Diamondbacks | 415 | 0.284 | 15 | 60 | 56 | 2 | | 2008 | 25 | Diamondbacks | 540 | 0.300 | 12 | 75 | 87 | 10 | +------+-----+--------------+-----+-------+----+-----+----+----+ In his first full season in the majors (2006) Jackson played encouragingly well for a rookie, posting the numbers seen above. At just 23, those are impressive numbers. As good as the numbers were, people wanted and were expecting Jackson to improve upon them and fulfill his superstar potential. You see, however, that Jackson did not improve those numbers in the following two years; instead his production stagnated at the level of his rookie season. While those numbers are certainly not bad, they are only a feather's throw above the average first baseman's. At 6-foot-2, 215 pounds Jackson brings forth the expectation of more home runs than the 15 a season he currently hits. Power skillsLet's look at Jackson's True Home Run numbers. +------+-----+--------------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | HR | tHR | HR/FB | tHR/FB | nHR/FB | RAW | OF/FB% | +------+-----+--------------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+ | 2006 | 23 | Diamondbacks | 485 | 15 | 22 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 3.2 | 38 | | 2007 | 24 | Diamondbacks | 415 | 15 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 0.7 | 38 | | 2008 | 25 | Diamondbacks | 540 | 12 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 0.0 | 34 | +------+-----+--------------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+ If you're new to THT Fantasy Focus and are unfamiliar with True Home Runs (tHR) or any of the other stats I'm using, check out our quick reference guide. These stats provide a much clearer picture of a player's talent, so it's well worth taking a couple of minutes to learn them. If you are rooting for Jackson to develop into an All-Star, then this table is discouraging. My hunch before looking at the numbers was that Jackson could have been improving his power ability, with his actual home run totals simply not yet showing it. Instead we see that Jackson's power abilities have been declining slightly since his rookie season. I see no reason why he should suddenly start blasting 30 home runs—or even 25—in 2009. Contact skillsThe one thing Jackson has been really, really good at since his college days is controlling the strike zone. Even at the major league level, Jackson has walked and struck out at almost the same rate. +------+-----+--------------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | BA | tBA | CT% | BABIP | mBABIP | LD% | BIP/HR | BIP/tHR | +------+-----+--------------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ | 2006 | 23 | Diamondbacks | 485 | 0.291 | 0.300 | 85 | 0.317 | 0.311 | 21 | 27 | 19 | | 2007 | 24 | Diamondbacks | 415 | 0.284 | 0.299 | 88 | 0.294 | 0.309 | 20 | 24 | 23 | | 2008 | 25 | Diamondbacks | 540 | 0.300 | 0.299 | 89 | 0.321 | 0.314 | 22 | 40 | 32 | +------+-----+--------------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+--------+---------+ Talk about a true .300 hitter! Jackson makes contact often and sprays the ball hard to all fields, allowing him to boast a high BABIP despite his relative slow speed. Let's a look at Jackson's plate discipline stats to see if his approach at the plate is as consistent as his batting average. +------+-----+--------------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | CT% | JUDGMENT X | A/P | BAT CONTROL | BAD BALL | +------+-----+--------------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ | 2006 | 23 | Diamondbacks | 485 | 85 | 103 | 0.10 | 94 | 65 | | 2007 | 24 | Diamondbacks | 415 | 88 | 117 | 0.07 | 92 | 75 | | 2008 | 25 | Diamondbacks | 540 | 89 | 106 | 0.23 | 94 | 66 | +------+-----+--------------+-----+-----+------------+------+-------------+----------+ We see that Jackson has tremendous judgment of pitches and great ability to make contact with pitches inside the zone, but has an overly passive (A/P) approach. That his A/P ratio moved significantly toward 1.00 in 2008 is promising; it shows that Jackson is actively trying to become more aggressive at the plate. This aggressive approach most likely would result in more home runs for Jackson, although it would come at a cost of a few points of batting average. At this point in his career, most people would be more than willing to make that trade. Concluding thoughtsI mentioned that Jackson has "sort of" held the first baseman's job for the D-backs since 2006. I was ambiguous because in 2008 Jackson played first base but also saw significant time in left field. Early indications are that Jackson will begin 2009 as the starting left fielder, since the D-backs want to give infielder Chad Tracy a chance to resurrect his career. With Jackson, Chris Young and Justin Upton in the outfield, it pushes Eric Byrnes and his $30 million contract to a backup role. Still, it appears to be Jackson's starting job to lose. The Diamondbacks are not going to bench Jackson if he is batting .300, but be aware that his leash is somewhat short if he does not get off to a quick start. Of course the same could be said of Tracy, in which case Jackson would move back to first with Byrnes sliding into left. I will also name-drop Josh Whitesell, a 26 year old "prospect" who batted .328 and hit 26 home runs for the D-backs' Triple-A affiliate. He is a longshot to get playing time, but if the right chain of events occurs, he could end up with some at-bats playing first. Assuming Jackson does get a season's worth of at-bats, I am expecting a line around .290 average, 18 home runs and five steals. Trying to project his runs and RBI totals would be pointless ,as it depends mostly on where he bats in the lineup. That makes Jackson a decent value if you can get him late enough in drafts. More than anything else, his newly acquired outfield eligibility helps his value, as he is a decent second or third outfield choice. Posted by Paul Singman at 1:01am (2) Comments Wednesday, December 24, 2008Fantasy fallout: Teixeira signs with YankeesI'm sure everyone has heard that Mark Teixeira signed with the New York Yankees earlier this evening, and since I'm under a bit of a time crunch with Christmas tomorrow (and since many of you probably are too), let's jump right into things. PowerIf you're new to THT Fantasy Focus and are unfamiliar with True Home Runs (tHR) or any of the other stats I'm using, check out our quick reference guide. These stats provide a much clearer picture of a player's talent, so it's well worth taking a couple of minutes to learn them. +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-------+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+ | YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | HR | tHR | HR/FB | tHR/FB | nHR/FB | RAW | OF FB% | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-------+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+ | 2006 | 25 | Rangers | 628 | 33 | 31/33 | 18 | 17/18 | 19 | 6.6 | 36/38 | | 2007 | 26 | Rangers | 286 | 13 | 18/21 | 17 | 24/28 | 29 | 6.6 | 34/36 | | 2007 | 26 | Braves | 208 | 17 | 9/11 | 25 | 13/16 | 16 | 6.0 | 41/42 | | 2008 | 27 | Braves | 381 | 20 | 15/11 | 19 | 14/10 | 13 | 0.0 | 34/35 | | 2008 | 27 | Angels | 193 | 13 | 9/10 | 22 | 16/18 | 17 | 0.0 | 33/33 | +------+-----+---------+-----+----+-------+-------+--------+--------+-----+--------+ Teixeira has bounced all over the place over the past couple of years, so my apologies if this looks like a lot to take in. The most important thing you want to take away from this is that Teixeira is a very good power hitter (duh), though not quite elite. On a yearly basis, he's also been remarkably consistent. He fell off a little this year (in terms of tHR) due to a sub-par campaign with the Braves, but with the Angels he resumed his old ways. The best news here, though, is that Yankee Stadium would have been very kind to Teixeira. It bumps his tHR/FB up two points most years, and it also should have a favorable impact on his fly ball rate. All in all, if Teixeira gets 600 at-bats, it would be very easy to expect 30-35 home runs. The drop-off in 2007 was a little disconcerting, but he has had success in the past and will still be just 28 years old, so I'd have no problem owning Tex in 2009. We must make one note, however. The Yankees are moving to a new stadium this year, so these numbers might not be relevant. New Yankee stadium does have similar dimensions and will experience similar weather, so the old figures very well could serve as a rough approximation. The one thing I worry about is the orientation of the stadium. If it is oriented differently, the wind would have a different impact (though it was just 1.1 MPH on average from 2002 to 2006). I checked Google Earth, but the pictures there don’t show anything built yet where New Yankee Stadium will be, and I haven’t found any articles about the orientation. If anyone has found something like this, please let me know. Contact+-------+---------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+--------+ | YEAR | TEAM | AB | BA | tBA | CT% | BABIP | mBABIP | +-------+---------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+--------+ | 06-08 | Yankees | 561 | 0.298 | 0.276 | 80/80 | 0.323 | 0.306 | +-------+---------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+--------+ You'll notice that the above table isn't the normal one you see in these articles. The problem is, Teixeira has moved all over the place over the past three years, and I still have some Christmas-related things to take care of, so trying to reverse engineer Marcels (for mBABIP) to account for the park change for each season is just unrealistic for tonight. Instead, to arrive at the mBABIP column here, I park and league-adjusted Teixeira's lines at each stop and then did a quick Marcels-esque 5/4/3 weighting on them. I did the same with contact rate (turns out there's no difference) and then combined these two with the weighted True Home Runs figures from above to arrive at a very rough, three year, Yankee True Batting Average for Teixeira. While this isn't the most scientific way of doing things, it doesn't paint the rosiest picture for Teixeira. His tBA is more than 20 points lower than his actual batting average over the past three years, though we must note again that there's no guarantee New Yankee Stadium will play like Old Yankee Stadium. The vast majority of this drop-off comes from the park change, so if it plays differently, he could definitely do much better. Concluding thoughtsWhile we can't say for certain, it looks as though the move to the Yankees will help Teixera's power but hurt his batting average. Last year, Teixeira was a favorite of mine in the second round of mixed leagues. I actually debated taking him in the first round in some leagues. This year, I still would likely take him in the second round. While there's a chance the batting average will fall off, playing for the Yankees (and presumably batting third or fourth) should allow Tex to wrack up the RBIs and runs. Posted by Derek Carty at 12:10am (5) Comments Mock Draft: 2009 Rotoworld Mock DraftLast week, I participated in the 2009 Rotoworld Mock Draft, the full results of which will be featured in their annual draft guide along with some analysis from our friend Nate Stephens. Today, though, I'd like to talk a little about my strategy for the draft and go over some of the more important/interesting picks. My team+-----+--------------------+-------+ | POS | PLAYER | ROUND | +-----+--------------------+-------+ | C | Dioner Navarro | R18 | | C | Kenji Johjima | R21 | | 1B | Carlos Pena | R7 | | 2B | Brian Roberts | R4 | | 3B | Edwin Encarnacion | R11 | | SS | Miguel Tejada | R10 | | MI | Robinson Cano | R8 | | CI | James Loney | R12 | | OF | Matt Holliday | R1 | | OF | Ichiro Suzuki | R2 | | OF | Vladimir Guerrero | R3 | | OF | Curtis Granderson | R5 | | OF | Ryan Ludwick | R9 | | UT | Billy Butler | R17 | | SP | Dan Haren | R6 | | SP | Brett Myers | R13 | | SP | Scott Baker | R14 | | SP | Kevin Slowey | R15 | | SP | Jonathan Sanchez | R16 | | SP | Manny Parra | R22 | | RP | Joey Devine | R19 | | RP | Trevor Hoffman | R20 | | RP | Dan Wheeler | R23 | +-----+--------------------+-------+ Above, you'll notice the team that I drafted. Without divulging too many of the details, in this particular mock draft, I sort of had two main objectives: to try out pieces of new strategies and to gather information (in various forms). Parts of the strategy I employed didn't quite go as I planned, but that's the purpose of a mock draft—to try these things out before you hold the drafts that mean something. I very much doubt I'll end up drafting a real team that resembles this one too much, though there are some players in there that a really like, and I think the team as a whole could be competitive. Interesting picksHere are the picks that I found to be particularly interesting for one reason or another: Pick No. 1: Hanley Ramirez Pick No. 7: Ian Kinsler Pick No. 8: Grady Sizemore R2, Pick 5: Chase Utley R3, Pick 5: Dustin Pedroia Round 3: Jacoby Ellsbury Round 4: Shane Victorino Round 4: Rafael Furcal Round 4: Alexei Ramirez Round 5: Troy Tulowitzki Round 6: Francisco Liriano Round 7: Jay Bruce Round 8: Chris Davis Round 8: Chris Iannetta Round 9: Ryan Ludwick Round 10: Cliff Lee Round 10: Matt Wieters Round 11: David Price Round 11: Khalil Greene Round 13: Max Scherzer Round 14: Denard Span Round 15: Jose Arredondo Round 15: Nelson Cruz Round 15: Rickie Weeks Round 16: Mike Napoli Round 18: Taylor Teagarden Round 21: Joe Saunders Round 22: George Sherrill There doesn't quite seem to be a consensus number one pick yet, but it may well end up being Hanley. I've mentioned it before in chats and in The Hardball Times Annual, and I'll be sure to do a full post on him later in the offseason, but I don't agree with this at all. I don't believe Hanley should be taken number one, but I'm glad to see others taking him there. Other first round surprises included Ian Kinsler (who I wouldn't take in the first round) and Grady Sizemore (who seems to be going here relatively frequently and who I could see taking in certain circumstances). I was very interested to see how far Chase Utley would fall, and he lasted until the middle of the second round. If Utley ends up missing even a month of time, I don't think he'll be able to return this kind of value. I'd much prefer the guy taken exactly one round later, Mr. Pedroia (who I covered in detail here), if I'm taking a second baseman in that spot. Speed seemed to be in high demand early with Ellsbury going in round three, and Victorino and Furcal going in round four. Middle infielders also seemed to be in demand with Furcal and Alexei Ramirez going in round four and Tulowitzki in round five. It's amazing how a guy who turned in a disappointing 2008 is being taken higher than he was last year. I can't justify this pick unless you're employing a high-risk strategy. The other picks all seemed pretty aggressive as well. I was hoping Liriano would be one of the guys to last into the early teen rounds this year, but it doesn't appear that will be the case. Youngsters Bruce, Davis, and Iannetta all went in rounds seven and eight. Iannetta was another guy I was hoping would last until round 11 or 12, but maybe he won't. I'm not as big on Davis as many people are, and I'd absolutely prefer my man Loney in round 12 or 13 to Davis in round eight. I've said that I think Ryan Ludwick is in for a regression, but I took him in round nine anyway. I was pretty surprised he fell that far. If this were a real league, I might try to trade him in April. I was also surprised Cliff Lee fell as far as he did, and I don't think picking him there would be a terrible idea. More young guys here with Wieters in round 10, Price in 11, and Scherzer in 13. Price, I doubt I will draft this year. Wieters, I might, if he falls to rounds 13 or 14 and I still need a catcher. Scherzer was a guy I was really hoping would slip through the cracks into the 18-20 area, but apparently not, courtesy of Mr. Stephens. Denard Span, Nelson Cruz, Rickie Weeks, and Mike Napoli are all guys who I think would make great picks after round 17 or 18, but they all went earlier than that. They might be worth it, but these are the kinds of guys (in addition to several others, of course) that I really like to take later in the draft to minimize the risk and maximize the value. Khalil Greene in round 11 perplexes me, and Arredondo in 15 seems way too early with more-skilled, more-likely-to-start-the-year-closing pitchers still on the board. I'm taking all three of my closers before Arredondo, at least at this point in the off-season. Taylor Teagarden makes an appearance in round 18. I've been following him for a while and think he could end up justifying this spot, though some things will definitely need to go right. Napoli might actually be a good comparison here. Nobody was buying the Joe Saunders or George Sherrill kool-aid, and I won't be either. Sherrill in round 22 is a decent pick, though, given the remaining closers. Concluding thoughtsThat wraps things up for the week here at THT Fantasy Focus. We'll see you all on Monday as we resume regular content, unless of course any big news hits this weekend. In that case, definitely check back here as we should have it covered. Otherwise, enjoy your holidays! Posted by Derek Carty at 1:04am (9) Comments Monday, December 29, 2008Fantasy fallout: Big Unit signs with Giants
I don't give Brian Sabean credit very often, but his signing of Randy Johnson this weekend to a one-year, $8 million contract was a steal. While Johnson will be 45 in 2009, he is still a very effective pitcher. Check out his 2008 fantasy line: +------+-----+-----+----+------+------+-----+----+ | YEAR | AGE | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K | SV | +------+-----+-----+----+------+------+-----+----+ | 2008 | 44 | 184 | 11 | 3.91 | 1.24 | 173 | 0 | +------+-----+-----+----+------+------+-----+----+ What's more is that Johnson could actually see an increase in value in 2009, especially moving to the Giants. Fallout: JohnsonNumbers For sections that are divided, the left section shows his numbers with his previous team (Yankees in 2006 and D'Backs in 2007 and 2008) and the right shows his league and park-adjusted numbers—essentially his numbers if he had pitched as a Giant. The numbers on the right are also adjusted for the quality of batter faced, a new adjustment that I'll be explaining in more detail next week. Suggestions for improving the clarity of these tables are welcome. +------+-----+-------+------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-------+-------+ | YEAR | AGE | IP | ERA | QERA | K/9 | K/BB RI | xGB% | HR/FB | +------+-----+-------+------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-------+-------+ | 2006 | 42 | 205.0 | 5.00 | 4.07/3.79 | 7.6/ 8.1 | 0.39/0.54 | 40/43 | 12/10 | | 2007 | 43 | 56.7 | 3.81 | 2.53/2.21 | 11.4/12.3 | 1.52/1.79 | 40/42 | 14/10 | | 2008 | 44 | 184.0 | 3.91 | 3.58/3.31 | 8.5/ 9.1 | 0.67/0.84 | 40/42 | 12/ 9 | +------+-----+-------+------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-------+-------+Note: I use QERA as opposed to the usual LIPS ERA because it is much easier to compute and is similar enough to LIPS for our purposes. If you're new to THT Fantasy Focus and are unfamiliar with True Home Runs (tHR) or any of the other stats I'm using, check out our quick reference guide. These stats provide a much clearer picture of a player's talent, so it's well worth taking a couple of minutes to learn them. When most people think of the Giants these days, they think of a terrible, terrible offense. This is absolutely true, and it will likely keep Johnson's win total down, but his skills are still very strong. I'm sure those who drafted Johnson in the 20th round last year were more than pleased with his 3.91 ERA, but this was actually a little unlucky. Both LIPS ERA and QERA thought he should have posted a 3.58 ERA, and once we make all of our adjustments, QERA puts him at 3.31. That's a huge difference—one that could have made Johnson a top 10 pitcher. In addition, his K/9 would have risen by 0.6 points, resulting in 13 more strikeouts. Furthermore, AT&T Park deflates homers by 14 percent while Chase Field inflates them by 15 percent. That's a huge swing, apparent in Johnson's HR/FB numbers above. While his BABIP would rise a little bit with our adjustments (.313 to .327 in 2008), the Giants did post a 3.0 UZR in 2008 while the D'Backs were at -3.5. Overall, I think Johnson's QERA serves as a good estimator of his actual ERA with very few adjustments necessary once we take HR/FB and BABIP into consideration. Risk There are a few concerns with Johnson, though. The first is injuries. Johnson pitched just 10 games in 2007, although he did bounce back for a long 2008 campaign. Still, it's been said that the cartilage in his knees has thinned over the years, and he has a history of back trouble as well (accounting for his missed time in 2007 and a 15-day DL stay in 2008). His age is also a concern. At age 45, we have few comparables for Johnson, so we're a little less certain about the age curve we'll need to apply. Stuff Still, his "stuff" remains pretty good, and even a moderate drop-off could allow the Unit keep his ERA under 4.00. Keith Law at ESPN had this to say about his stuff: He's been pitching for a few years with reduced stuff, but his fastball is still solid-average at 89-93, and his slider remains sharp, at 82-86 mph with good tilt and late depth to it. His third pitch, a splitter, is a weaker offering; he gets on top of the pitch, but it has a slow dive rather than the hard bottom more often associated with a splitter. Right-handed hitters can time the pitch because its drop starts early. I'm actually bigger on Johnson's fastball than Law, as it gets more than 10 inches of horizontal movement and nearly eight inches of vertical movement (and at times can get up to 15 inches either way). While it sits at just 91 MPH or so (on average), that's still a great fastball. I'm not quite as big on the slider as Law is because it really doesn't seem to get a whole lot of movement, but I agree with him on the splitter. It gets a lot of horizontal movement and okay sink, but it starts to drop very early in comparison to the fastball (click for a visual depiction of the trajectory). Overall Overall, if Johnson stays healthy enough to reach the 170 innings Bill James projects (or even the 158 innings Marcels projects), he could very well be a top 12 or 15 pitcher. I could definitely see a 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160 strikeouts, and 10-12 wins. It should be noted, though, that CHONE is much less optimistic on the playing time at just 110 innings. So far, I've seen Johnson taken as early as round 17 and as late as round 23 in mixed league mock drafts. At that price, Johnson figures to be a steal if he stays healthy and won't hurt you much if he doesn't. All in all, Johnson looks like a great pick this year. Fallout: Giants pitchersWith the signing of Johnson, the Giants' rotation looks like this:
Last year, the Giants filled the fifth spot with the likes of Patrick Misch, Matt Palmer, Brad Hennessey, and Kevin Correia (now with San Diego). Aside from maybe Misch (who posted good Triple-A numbers in 2007 but dropped off considerably in 2008), none are really fantasy considerations, so while this move hurts all their value, it really doesn't make much difference to fantasy owners. Noah Lowry could also be healthy in 2009, but he would be a terrible fantasy bet. Jonathan Sanchez, however, could be the player indirectly affected the most by this signing. The Giants are now talking about the possibility of trading Sanchez, which could hurt his value if he goes to an American League team like the Yankees or Rangers. The Rockies, even in the National League, could be a bit of a downgrade. Just about any move would cause him to allow more home runs, and a move to the AL would cause his strikeout rate (which he draws a lot of his value from) to drop by half a point. Perhaps the most disturbing news of all, though, comes from an MLB.com article that states "if Lowry's fit, Sanchez would be bumped from the rotation into the bullpen and could be expendable." Sanchez to the bullpen? With Zito and Lowry in the rotation? Maybe a little premature, but perhaps I should retract my Sabean compliment from earlier. He really doesn't seem to know what he's doing. Sanchez's wins would likely increase by going to another team, and if he lands with someone like the Marlins or Cubs, he could see an uptick in value. That might be best for him if there's a risk of him getting stuck in the bullpen with the Giants. | ||||||||||||
